sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7c20814cc7b1e1e0ac6a65d72a08091bf3fa0333 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x32689488020e7e8c5f93ed95ffced589e7a149016a1185bf806a98fdda51f999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | Event: 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Abdi Nageeye (NED) win ... | yes | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | 65,691,404 | 65,691,404 |
988038cab1c2ac2449130101906223b0f645bae3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x5c3d2abe1e5ca77740ac74201a0219ad2d9ac2bcddb87efe1b1e73b46a8afe59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? | Event: 200m-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abdi Nageeye (NED) win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-m-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another athelete win gold in the Men’s Mara... | yes | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione not extradited to New York by February? | 65,691,404 | 65,691,404 |
9a597852992147173ff6b78935e75566a5324f30 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf1b3ff606c54cfde8965dfab5d0dc96f0fca01f4b1d980b3dd7242af65fb83d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Abdi Nageeye (NED) win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-m-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another athelete win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-m-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the W... | yes | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione extradited to New York by December? | 65,691,404 | 65,691,404 |
0b701b678eaf2bdd06b45aab3e3f98639d9c927d | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xffb205b09d71b892464d543c8c62a5b01a1cd31d721056db6806525d399db018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athelete win gold in the Men’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-m-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-w-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the... | yes | 1 | luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | 65,691,404 | 65,691,404 |
815ff98d01243eb9a3d61d5312f57f1a30512bcc | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x912f772a0eb83626e3890a5fc0eed3fc835d70b705ad74bdc461cf61a6d8d80f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-w-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-w-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Pa... | no | 1 | world-dart-championship | Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | 66,100,790 | 66,293,179 |
aa95bae1c5c96c72ff1efbf29ed75b0cf955e65a | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x0e530ed620979a0539f92ff012795a1562d4bfee61ae626a1167c953272d5d24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon? | Event: marathon-w-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win... | yes | 1 | largest-company-eoy | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
cb3c376793dd68dc726bde8a0ad2ada5ab5eb7d3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x116eda85fcc4f5df10e13e6290af9778126a1e5fd62074219addf5da20e3570d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manch... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
6b0c535618073c0320dabb24da6c2d4bc7cbf9fa | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x2338850858fff3136bc49baf5ef42138f898c95eab1ce28a855259746e94e2b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump wi... | yes | 1 | largest-company-eoy | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
e34a2810beafaac113c549281c66cfc721de4bd3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x371e5a57eb2a39b0eca983633dc6d9c4422a61814fa8e61aeca1fec7ebff7429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
383f2ccbbaccd8ed52d96eb3d53c0b3f63f8e3cf | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x67bc9e1ae7f2d2625fe4f3a9013bcb8aadbb11832f43ff6a19c53fba2b37c0b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | largest-company-eoy | Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
575db3182a2cf70f22e9154aa4838d50203f34f8 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x82e70a9a64cd42bd8b07768ae91ef85b9e5a962efb8470dc57197d43621a9fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6680024381070951
3. Que... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
40ca5654995e697286562238d1dc82987302ee63 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x959a60524d36acdfe0031e4a01d735a7d093bea46b6a9e63219a765624c5ec0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6680024381070951
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in November? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | largest-company-eoy | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
89dd5399a1270a3344fc5afc316e331feb9b873b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb6b07ed97d10051f2a63821e47ff46d71d4f479fa255ce8a6e07d5325ac06a68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in November? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: qatar-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 ... | yes | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? | 66,179,363 | 66,179,363 |
e55767f5b16db934c932ad38b8dd08d76ddb2a1c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x02ff62dd162f1f680beb74b9afc753f202d97a3732697c0460c35c33d23b0555 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix? | Event: qatar-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fianna Fáil w... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $FWOG be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
42ebcc00ff3d247187bb319d5f8c0abd49530312 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x3d1121c423b3a5b2b961d131dddd00169ef0619487e8afd78a89e0c55855a7e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
aa698a64c24fe8b4caed500c7e00ecb8aff0ff83 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x9e6f8fd5ac30a99d24dbdb9f813e7b44859dcc977d596199bb33e1af27ed2656 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
12a9763e8dabb22a6f51953cb7c711a0c165d3c5 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa647149953da495e58a3ecc417c9edfed9f71e74265433507bb84ea7a425fbad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Event: 2024-irish-general-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the November 2024 temper... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
d561fc71c98cf086423cacc72e231bc6a847007c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xb4de5ab3d7d35d95513734e42b95620138245283ba50ccfc04b37caf4cec8f46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the November 2024 tem... | yes | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $Mog be listed first on Binance? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
1fad00f7495fb64aacaf5c0ed63a7608b7223c18 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xcbc596c7f92eea16cd3e5609c5074cfdb6ed76e919e3af890a4776ceb1247cf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in December? | 66,179,367 | 66,179,367 |
c9bd238851de9ea1fd8ac57786e8c7043ff695a4 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x504e795d361636416cbb9f47f16b8b9b8d2ad5198ccd8d7dff14bb9482eb5563 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,366,871 | 66,366,871 |
560840fed989a2857324c7b7b60c089a56968e13 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xcc3b88b4ad702be9adda783a67ac5349ff064abf3631de300e44624edb95a683 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | golden-globes-best-supporting-actress-motion-picture | Will Zoe Saldaña win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture? | 66,366,893 | 66,366,893 |
07f852b7cbb35399458b776247374ae15e0a49b5 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x7fb7c5b533f51a6071719f91ad014eeab260a995442e2e8041501e22c8c9a200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 66,377,356 | 66,377,356 |
f931250d416e70a53b577034c56758df0604e7ef | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x1414b0cce66b440db90604d5174bd2d88ed199c37c3d35b40a99a07fc098da7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | december-inflation | Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | 66,741,937 | 66,741,937 |
ff362043e060cab8b5d4b6efcd92c3f091968b65 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x9db92e4b4bf09b12067686a8983e88fdbb4d8c4e507945ab61d9783166e7cb53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | Event: november-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | december-inflation | Will US annual inflation be 2.7% in December? | 66,741,937 | 66,741,937 |
0602a3506f4b05df951978ce6eac79e46a37f35d | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc4c852b4a02e839890e9d1457f76711b4d4c886a7b77606de1454193be7dbbd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | december-inflation | Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December? | 66,741,937 | 66,741,937 |
97fe9afea651d92f890e219441dc0bce536de373 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xed3f699d49c03b25f3138d1ffb580e7640be4a032b18073652b36f9db2b25860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | december-inflation | Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? | 66,741,937 | 66,741,937 |
277422bd3572445c2e7d43f761b923670d8d6324 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xbd24038f927cd1bcecdf157d329b4b65dee1cfb3736634df7c1cf301e2250400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: >50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | 66,765,872 | 66,765,872 |
60c607be8f639a4f2b26a32d845cd47430b41f55 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf7cce5624adc59ee30b0b986f3245249a92dbf80fca92861416b0cd098a57a2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: >50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-w | Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open? | 66,929,097 | 66,929,097 |
f1d42117096aafb795bfb51faaeeda0f43986082 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x0034d03ddb23faa45d668873197385ca86c83406d09c7fe317e8f5c0aacf1e5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | Event: ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | Event: world-dart-championship | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: L... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
6c1a06e46719f05465b2e168bd75c93aa0a87566 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x2e97c83652c9cc4a86b411f5c8ca5ee596f8b36bc27076117005c61b1dab567c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | Event: world-dart-championship | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Luigi Mangio... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 12-15 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
cc8592e06955ba8e36cc111b4d7ef4879da2b4f3 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x81e73bcce62bbbb6afa9f7cfbcd056ad7c192fdc1f8cafe8c0d45e73ff860c2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione not extradited to New York by February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 20-23 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
7e99f5ac752f006f3c86fce778e70347529c74d1 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x8ae71740247df5cb99ce3221ac3496a285704197676bd493ec0fba8799d2be8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione not extradited to New York by February? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York by December? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
0dd4de8568d423e3a1e14d6ea67cb3cc6d4ba023 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x901160addc5d38bb7f51c8dc6bb6424c93787f58df4e645e42161345b27bb0e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York by December? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
1d2a133c758e794c03a9ee6b2233838e3a0f2fd7 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xab163d7713691c86fdecb1ee0238f0478eef804c89701482d98bcf2123c48463 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January? | Event: luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | Event: world-dart-championship | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be... | yes | 1 | how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Will 16-19 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | 66,981,320 | 66,981,320 |
749331e41f15894e880ea3439924b2d0d9024325 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x61c739154f43a0cec4be03e28ecf2582cd678de3e6385e091ebee5074f076400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luke Littler win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? | Event: world-dart-championship | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will no... | no | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-01-25 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-25? | 67,097,392 | 67,097,392 |
8be1665ed8c8e9e3116ee02edb11b5b0a88a1d95 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc14b62b33f01bfbca073994c18d78e935d6d088b99c141901894b18c05e7fc02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,165,210 | 67,165,210 |
432ccbeb07edb0151306a41c949b00b9db4eed9c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x80b4f6ca982ba1ff550316f725193f5f29761bf65770e37f11fa4b9736f1f7c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will none of the named coins be listed on Binance in 2024? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,200,222 | 67,200,222 |
1fe5b863ea665cd2ccb10137862b041a38847ae7 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x124b9bfca87e921a7d5c2b0f6de2805e3c60491a3832b07cce15ec7d039e7e19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another compa... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | 67,228,384 | 67,228,384 |
39095142d2bb21301656108745134ec43f279041 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x88d9809dd49ac09811dcfd7bb17a19433acb51b19fd430192bb8ad2a13f9efe0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOO... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m? | 67,228,384 | 67,228,384 |
2c1dc7feaa6b293e97c1b56798ffa8156d992fc4 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x928a41c3f96ce756e4565a7fccbdffa38f398485b37fca59fac064998005556a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mic... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m? | 67,228,384 | 67,228,384 |
76c85aa043e6ee87820e796b38b3c82392d0f6b0 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa55c0e5927de8c1b8804d1fb8b9bff12aa2c59cbb7c2adfcbdee588a45ea4dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Berachain... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m? | 67,228,384 | 67,228,384 |
033336611abd9f47d13d4ef43d42e2f161d0cde8 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x38b5e1b74c0ee2617b9ad20aab72d54525a613c311d07deb90c654444192b7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $FWOG be ... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,243,610 | 67,243,610 |
56fe2f45229b1b1f92eeb1cc2e70d7e9f5d029eb | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xe47b6bbb4abb6c8676837c05da09eb5af684f59fe17547653a9ce5d528b7d7af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $FWOG be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,266,442 | 67,266,442 |
7c517f4ec0b1cec92f8ceacbcdd93db8b237ebea | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x134213c6a2c381fbef5a35cebe9bc28fddf970a69f797bddc461238ac0e45678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $FWOG be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,366,866 | 67,366,866 |
a1d1857658a0680a43864530ea1c7ac5ee42f198 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc7f52bcbe1bdae343ca855ba4883462fb76243e021f80a4d5d93469378bb857c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $GOAT be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? | Event:... | yes | 0.667844 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 42-50 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,367,095 | 67,411,336 |
131d11ec3be2877d1aebe2de46b6e5d60940792d | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x30ecf18dbd93627bc01d8bf9da92d1e1dbd6c32e1ce2be5500824ff5654d86eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $NEIRO be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $Mog be listed first on Binance? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 6-12 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,403,739 | 67,403,739 |
6c3399590787aa55ec14b61439e9834cf728c2f2 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x4c2024a9764ec9c6f3c931e650075abf6578faf10b909bf73e9dd4d13f5a4bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Mog be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Even... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,403,739 | 67,403,739 |
360393c7c524d269304d9e90bd5dcf55397feb92 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x5eeeda882e8c5408beade42868709dc3d2569d0b1b73983e6ccfefbcd338721e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Mog be listed first on Binance? | Event: next-coin-listed-on-binance | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Music... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,403,739 | 67,403,739 |
11cd366e0aa20de5f57126031210ecca0b95b1d9 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x920d55e034e8591e9bcc5d1e5c8fd250283f5d2d2eed4fe138afa50c449781b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,403,739 | 67,403,739 |
6aedf0dff0e4868e98906927b22c99d4ce339a5b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xfa6a3dcf3f25cc84d660b255793f9a2fc246c0b2e4ffeb51285dce46e075bded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture? | Event: golden-globes-best-supporting-actress-motion-pi... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,403,739 | 67,403,739 |
c6c848b00684c3f8ec779aeb61fee4c5a5d4126b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x21055987ff62defe5d00416ec84193383b7720f5d9b43fd104022bd9160c2eb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture? | Event: golden-globes-best-supporting-actress-motion-picture | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
a662216a07d88366dd7d4ca8a59fcbd91b05971c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x2c401fc82d3c11cbe0c7e7d11547ceb3ae8ae0905bbb7ac054c71cca3099113e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 50-60 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
b6a58a19ff6828ab4bae5564caf70610deccef49 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x35462816333a576c6907d4b0983bcf3207dcaaa560937451c60661301f6bcd9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.7% in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 30-36 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
3eb9ad0659aeb215f140c480d057a48f7983056b | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x5ebd7530e7ae05d362aafff51c840890f271e387a77ca4dc653e6e9e9a7c4734 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.7% in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? |... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
90aa01764571916514335bcf7287da7fa71c7d0c | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x76d66699ededf2a25ed5633bf892c30b648603e3c2c6cf09b1b98d49cd0711a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | E... | yes | 1 | how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
890002b7478aed3377db61482eb43aaa880b25de | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x94ce639e8814081542278a8d86cebcc97cf23167b57d3632c84b3cf55e1b6082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? | Event: december-inflation | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | Event: australian-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open?... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 12-18 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
d33ada3cac1e114b50760de597ed33c4e543d566 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf5b2f5e93ec15fa2845990e9cd24a2fce4528c6fda4fcef3ee1b430275af665e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | Event: australian-open-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open? | Event: australian-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in fav... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry over 60 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
d786dd85a9001dad52404cdcf2fa519f9bebe032 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xf8829f975e09bdd86d01c0588836a05627cb788d9939d64aaae15db1275761a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open? | Event: australian-open-winner-w | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 18-24 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,411,336 | 67,411,336 |
3ac4d3835e85f0f648b3a361838a5c85ff7f2906 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa8d9a86f52f7e5eda9dd5d664322d7bb76088ca4f96cbe6640f39e8eb5728600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 12-15 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vot... | no | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 67,413,488 | 67,413,488 |
b76983101d152b47d47abce7616d9d228b20f405 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x0d99a646d41330af178978ab61de7724e033beea37a2337a1cc6e30cdb2f6cc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 12-15 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 20-23 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
a9a5993bdd76e40f48d3c3ac777fbbb8ce305c28 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x77dbb9231bdae32094130b25ea970969adfce2b0d9b29a41c4f1f405a4601415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 20-23 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-l... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
a15a86dbaf950b962b276f64291f1a62399c8e0e | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x8505d4408bc6373232b6071c32bb0af9381d70f1e8ff4099f7b1a42f19e47790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 8-11 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
d8a64a40629257665742bf47d108207e8e6836de | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x95ce9a2ae8d256a33ddc49f5412c5865b5bb4083b4b55c673b633071535ba08d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 24 or more Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 16-19 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
10b36591b4a09f9204ead51f53b2938f5f36d7b2 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xa50ce519612fd1d27eae5e8d4c0e15a08f5915828a1253b77e45965383c41155 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 16-19 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act? | Event: how-many-democratic-senators-vote-for-laken-riley-act | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-01-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thre... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
125138ce74b570a8af823c5f5a3ff34899ee058f | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xbcca7fbe3251e7e6ad1311df7c1b2d1e94f432096458f1975a896428bcc87914 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-01-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | Event: how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Commanders win Super Bow... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
ef89e60c4fea5909c8b977c79805402814f86c9e | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0xc93d1340579f8f992acb8233be8c8544baa6d9268f118112752b30c18cf78284 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? | Event: how-many-trump-cabinet-confirmations-in-january | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,850,123 | 67,850,123 |
299be8cc09dc209784129f1b4cefcfdc1eb82fe4 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x0deb0ac927c7d1baac2fa19a1f8b2aae0035c0fdce386047c1bfb10e109a02aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | Event: flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Flight Risk"... | yes | 1 | captain-america-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m? | 68,130,067 | 68,130,067 |
74b69059a3afc0745ca88f337656b56c6272f244 | 0x3ce32f81a9a7fe9db7724f3aef11a7725618b625 | 0x1df94c2b5a08bf93eeb7a2b91e6d4a07cc2ed42128edd46252fd331f7aee091e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | Event: flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m? | Event: flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | captain-america-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m? | 68,130,067 | 68,130,067 |
ea6d5187c472f7dda3793b33181253a258e6d331 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x2eec9a805882297f188e5955064056ea8f096a47b23e1d6586410b3096fd9033 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15?
Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
299daa2132699cc926cbc31a4cecd16806527c86 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x3a2719dbbd7235ec592d6c0db5eba60cbab999e4f2dceebc9702ecf377e28231 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15?
Event: solana-price-on-september-15
Predict the user's ... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
088a2574cccf79ff2b63c83e08b0669d6a229720 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x494675e4f7f50b030e4146a484171adf8a12d0bb5dad007848c124be14f108b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
fe0e4dba424ae5ef2ec4661b2a87d41de928c39c | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x5f38d4bbcded2c983d22915f8a158a410c4f943b7addb15b1413e4b6321cd8a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.70 and $2.80 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
706de8ce5fd029f44d1eccd4f3b51e85b1e1e10d | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x63c525e61a95ec37465f7c3dd5831490612f85ee0b97d426278fc7b07c7834ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.40 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
45ca9d707c5e8c2ae3f95d185b7f73fae3ff814c | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x876ff6b7955086dbbb2fc0cd8c3ea724770e4197a361df79bb4d7a7ad563a4e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,800 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
758dd5a7729afa5f2ad7c71a3c271e47a2cdd973 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x8bc72110830580ee02c72f03a9e0bc9e9c219c829e23c721d073bae40cce400f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be between $250 and $260 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
5f7d07d8f65acb21122108e15f3de99641c22d7a | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0x8e1feff9ede242a0b2e30c94d5531a6e1b1b9304783151d734fd9619999111de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
7f9e76e16326a3ec37314f6b690b2d710551f32a | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xb0a62c4fe54354a63a2cd982f7ce6d92089db5922cba3b3108d5bef537ca0cb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
e83b326fb093c35c2fc25aecf098c3b766a91076 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xc0cb0da76fd0a5b6eefb78a8143d245d6130ec0a1d31cc982c323d02518f77c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.60 and $2.70 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
1288ad432c4dc58da7ec7b1c9b0f14dafae88119 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xc490cefcd8593d6cd1c2228275510260cf14e9dec131f790a287dabd72274d02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
4dcc7261055223a59b167042d62216d7e628a8bd | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xd51dc418a975c485beb2f8b710823a127ebab1da0516ac8ed020c43dcde22ebb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
86849ffba8a40491dd8208ad334579adb72627b2 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xd66703cb4d2155a2e838ebc5bfc1a19ca8bdcda830ece600183c0efe3985fe72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
be770294e820f59d497d23c853ab4593019c5d34 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xdcc01f803a38f14814d01ae9e3e537c6f2b02b1ad94842e591ed430deed5f25e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
e9c0e9d1115ae6dc03e9544d5593f53aae28a2de | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xe4aabcf01a580700b2256a2b7e53b8581233f0f0198cc4095435fabc0455f277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $260 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
3fcc4ae013ad01ea8022e55dd267d7af79891b89 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xe64b63b214d8451b174302e8f33396150d3b9147d29f5ad560787c1ed954028c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
96f6e0ec31edd7fc523c67f22921393458bb8cb5 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xe756ce128c7d8e08d26d2dfac85e54b4cf1b0032036fb2f646fc72a5368c4707 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
2370c5dab7a0e148762d6cab7d7cb726e0bda4a8 | 0x3cf8354457117514de49aae5b1bf7208d77a533d | 0xe8f52dccd5499f2d83d174fc612297bc97dfc5d2c23784376ead93d3b10295cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on September 15? | Event: ethereum-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on September 15? | Event: solana-price-on-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-september-15 | Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on September 15? | 76,530,032 | 76,530,032 |
2c9019ad85ecdda717a52382ebf969bbabfa48b8 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x7d9567f5605e2b4ca21bffd21d70e5a0599cfbf9d949a4d2d63ea08fc3cec1a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19?
Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | 63,269,537 | 63,269,537 |
1c63b4f55670026695c724ecbaf2d38667ac45bb | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x578c37e0b9eb2db4b04a07b766e238e88e0a2b1886e6e9088034582a0db62a94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw?
Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | no | 1 | epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 63,269,540 | 63,269,540 |
469517dd5eccb513e1137617f7e1909099504ce9 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x7367ff604adea1e86db93879899e077d098173d1e84e7377879a1e1084ce843b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20?
Event: epl-wol-mac-202... | no | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | 63,553,395 | 63,553,395 |
9e7b24486d25199aac5d3ecb437f7b2e16e0b08c | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x2758b209d0ce348873b100c1205c2e3c2449222f211e4e9857e29e3071a65fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,951,508 | 63,951,508 |
0d81f6227929dd1e84250ae488062cc524e8b816 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 63,961,890 | 63,961,890 |
be383cd7883860f802bf938a6290ed4c96589ae4 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x20eb5023dbcb09d0dda6fe89885b6951c33c3378cbfabfb6f584d3d0bc048a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a candidate from another party win New York Presidential Election? | 63,961,890 | 63,961,890 |
9cdac2da6485df9e72ca32e2a17822236986d6c5 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xbfb1fea57597c113c0324915c2982ccff11269ddd3be336cd12b3b5c9781f8a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win New Hampshire Presidential Election? | 63,961,890 | 63,961,890 |
c90c1989d4f95c367b322015017cb92444594ce4 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x8565c04b7cb5c2837d6c3347466a430cbe678a7d6428a48e5750749a26fb815d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,393,119 | 64,393,119 |
5e6cf8f62891873c956fd88714e36185843b8b29 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xa059663a859bac52841660e1fc2ed3fc247f04f549e3fb306c531527a76514ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,393,119 | 64,393,119 |
e9636f9d9c80051c1d2cc89baf4b63edda3bf97f | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | arizona-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? | 64,393,119 | 64,393,119 |
e461a2e900a886f8ddb326127759e58cfc0f7e27 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x163854cc14ae2580e74e10bd1a5aecba0036c893a645f280c0f820dee470676c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 65,125,089 | 65,125,089 |
366e13e368d5e786a90a33be7d2fdfd3bf0496ed | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x06c2b14714d1aca4061d51d4db44190b95c83210f9c9b97d4c236b6b9a0ed6d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,508,239 | 66,508,239 |
6ff5bbd59790a3b0485cc4ec6c1a677c6da97d77 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xcdd6d272c9f10433c07bb8d6d306f881ee66633d5c7b87ffd5220835ffd5d4ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7 | Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,642,022 | 67,642,022 |
371ddc5a8e29e08bd7d7c318bfeded478a066214 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x69b94c14f0b9adfa7c0c149e8349371b271b215769502615d5ca04e4f9fd4ca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend? | 70,051,463 | 70,051,463 |
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