sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b0d380de593bfbb2a837e4872bb0039a21970361 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xf4e351af54bf8753f2d496e48171ca3bf99616e7f97aa597e5a2f73db6387e2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend? | 70,051,463 | 70,051,463 |
5aadb7db123e2e3bd6d0daef51a997f7982910e2 | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0xfed8b0fa24825662ff22e340e01dd6590279513a6536222afafbf7e7c39fa347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | yes | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? | 70,051,463 | 70,051,463 |
73fc7ffae593c4b976b2ac64b0f3e2e44af2936c | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | 70,212,172 | 70,212,172 |
0b4fc8097a7449355addfa1791da2368607aa82e | 0x3d13ec664224ed9a602d153f0e85ee1b12421089 | 0x8067bd34a34b5575d90427da9350a46640e547207386cd64a6e829af72e8a321 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | C... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 25? | 70,858,906 | 70,858,906 |
6ce58184072be7c50436e1226bc7dd435b25d67c | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x31951adfc509a0b96259c1c2bb55c9698375385b77c97c643c3e66f2e00c7b57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31?
Event: xrp-price-on-october-31
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
7cab46e1793c3a1382d9ddeb8462572690a38269 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xa6ae2190802d602a21c18c904872f4313a769f88397225ad710a3e7e5b7d8147 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31?
Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31
Predict the user's choice and c... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
7f988ee09361c4ea7f2fb7477d244ed15f20266b | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xc424f5d9bbded9fd25785d1b53009bc99c29f60874b2a5e0cdfa5aba5fd9d39a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
c5966e2374d93e2c7477caf0c385e1312ad6de60 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xcb4fcf568d9a8904edb647d0d414605475d79b8037b6a7c8e033cc702832e056 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
42a2b37d2c5bdbcb23f0fc013cdc310f39e3a759 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xcd93fff5e1018a63e60380f97307abf5b8cbcd65dd69a396e7ebb5b7672470e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.90 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
19c19ec502e7ffc77d7d143b3883e5d0a361c269 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xd657df131da575ded682922b613c3bb074108e95472aa1d46bee7891a6282ad6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
1ff4c27e71833a5ee28b93aad72fc85f1beec970 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xd65ce73b996c09b6ecedd1cbfefe83e213a1fd81510e2bd2152bec79ee13a392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on October 31? | 78,432,978 | 78,432,978 |
2ef37c8fdce46e0dc05226a8ce981facbbd95cc9 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x47722bc8cd9a6057adfdf8b4ff1f249b2b544ea2e36252d4976cbbb0e22f80d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
e554de8894ff70517c52f96fc09c6ccda5d53c46 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x6fab674d8306e134002d3fe71182a49a4d50cbeb4426f13f05f252718cd5ed64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
b78241017572ce29f49cf584b9ab3cfc13a38eb1 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x92c1a96f2c07002be1ac81c7e1838d4fe8681de0dfe5c057ec70a8036b710154 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
b431e18f2dbd265bec31b63694511b562657b689 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xafa9276ddf3b9d36eeb1bd33c2820ce3625684a44a34db0c9d02b229fffb1cc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
5646bb850e1c62fe97deac41dac96089b5e4e8af | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xb39971944754c4aba27c31d698c7f272097ddcb216efe4f7f05d0f9af5218e08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
3fd834aba56fda395e6d828e8d333fee67b90725 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xd85d6ac3a137728da33e4e97af98732b28bdd5c5cabfdbcd1f018bf4fd5d1d88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on October 31? | 78,432,992 | 78,432,992 |
02fc476d84c37d19ea3dc50748a0747158d59c41 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x1e9ddfbabbd4c7b06d060fc2db00f6191df6443aed59fc0fb212eeb9aeaf8151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
9806a5ba9d085dca70989e8c58536f394cb4fb75 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x26fc65ecd121867d81d0f1fa9749c05c778e2c85f44579b733e972504a1f91a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
5a1d22209b405ab287681cec99de35f387dee3fc | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x7a5b71cc191d85ddc844230890548935e6159c00c18737a22ce1561e6286500c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
83bdc55d8499538ef542beafe725ac546f7792e4 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x895db6c490b680de757832e7910a1b502b2a4fe90d0ddde15867a9473f9dd167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
d65be68bf189bb356ce61aaf9b25562d28a13212 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x8ded1bbdaaecc281fa42deba00b46953f09ec63f22bc863c4afbc49d6a208cdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
6b16502cb0059234382f6e077733648ae30cf339 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xadba299f0cfd7b132a968954fc2fdb10afa0e5bcf56a0e3830f8ad6744a0d5c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on November 1? | 78,471,537 | 78,471,537 |
4b92b6fa5b7a2f4f1550762d21300dff18fb6afa | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x079030292f8d1ba0530e2e42ff5376dad28a2f10040e99fe8643c9212d6ebd58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.70 and $2.80 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
c58dd73162fdef5b90033916bbc704b2b6636181 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x08a277f14783446d8acd4a470e199779192f5c7a3c874ab2c8891f931638722d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
416b205e425f34fcbe1ae9de6d87b90b96b0284d | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x0a21c8432306e7847c234488bbd250375c765c924118705ab793cf950e032151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
a09906de072a11ac21490f945f2e229243ef3d36 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x89c483c1291ecf5750dc0fd5dae5b4fbe52787cd5325833637e1ece955d9d2e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
031e31933e6d49d5d7f30903d6e57f1ea3f87d4e | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xa6e92d16e69abe25f0ac24141575fc96bc8eed8294ff071d2c62d7903afa6116 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
a168dba60c6496324aeb98219b7fceca0d57400a | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xcf4eac58b5a6d168cb5b787c08a2616fab7ae807d44b87011bde9476420e6f4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on November 1? | 78,471,541 | 78,471,541 |
f1cad966e9e6e8e5914c74de6866511e5009a309 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x4768396f1dc0c994e7d821b74def4d2212b1d2a9c1e94d2f314f373cb5b03a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-november-1 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on November 1? | 78,471,544 | 78,471,544 |
2521bddfa1dab98fefe4fae3db98e0a87fe2a081 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x17ac6da534a2fa086399c368f62c3bda42f22c605ccdc9bb92fe9dda2c7453cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $240 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
197c3cb1526074b7e996964a89def0fcb3950560 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x5f361b9faecc3c85a4e4576e1ee2757b97fdef17427f0bca2e68137480e8dcfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $240 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
9dea45a841c51cd24a098097bfd6bec8268aae19 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x71405bb55c7886cc4d0a96c3beb90ee0afd7e672d905b41436d594295aa49b89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
9ec0c4115c96c5fb6351d0812326856879a63e85 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x7c40ed1550938abcead32342d0f273b87636570a372eba826ea535778da4f784 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
a5a83bba7dfc0c342d601abc7af818eeb0e943c1 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x89b64f443cbee27af2abc5491ac0a2cc6007c3838d30887ff57f03a3f96b93a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
441a31cc8de07e44b57f0f2fffb16697246f16eb | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x8edd5e5743db1862648cbfb17bb77a4c9fc59ff02275081b030181fb7df7f8b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
8f9fa1f0a0baf9b3a767969fe2cef6cbb2eac47b | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0x9fd5b9f6cb6ef75788fc7bd10cc7f6ceb05eac4792308216a56401a87a0f306d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be less than $2.00 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
5c4601b8b6f9e56c55501190e4a9a7d9a7497d01 | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xb514a59b94fa31db8deac1d087f208b5896daeb60635a20c87c540b3de9a9166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on October 31? | Event: ethereum-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.90 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on November 2? | 78,516,691 | 78,516,691 |
d8e5242bf0c93b8fdba430aa4fd056f8456b411a | 0x3d422d762515aa3caa1a0d5bcc63b570c340419c | 0xa05b79d531eb48493e0495ce95f5f7b960ab5012acac671a4342ff2d75e8a4b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.90 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 31? | Event: xrp-price-on-october-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? | 78,516,694 | 78,516,694 |
b2776f806dfaf200d2fe282b0f9fa50637cdbd4e | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x16f58ee2d00e8612c62f98881725cd98019ee59a6c20b7fb904e6b6fea225956 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Italy beat Belgium?
Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Will Italy beat Belgium? | 62,938,619 | 62,938,619 |
e09ad6b46f38e7b0495962bc36e8ea1492badb1f | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x5f33d07295aae77250dd571b378232138c8df1269efea0e69e23cd31a8f354b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta?
Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"... | yes | 1 | ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | 62,938,619 | 62,938,619 |
ac1a78ce445a53c2c69290dba66741de707867d5 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xd8234112d55c26222cb91d986476895a9e7055ed4d4a0fd4d095c020b042d700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia?
Event: uefa-n... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-georgia | Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | 62,938,619 | 62,938,619 |
b45fd31cba2b2b3f4cce4c2d7cbc268af481d547 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x747cb74e372d1f2352d47ed93692a2f028f5e937cc53c32e3612bbd462c8812b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-czech-republic | Will Ukraine beat Czech Republic? | 63,272,202 | 63,272,202 |
c87edd22a80fc72db466b794cde480a87a6a43cf | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xc348b550b2ca6bc68f0f9ce40e8ce4ae5f601649e3a8fa7c1c54e2a943a5439c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? | 63,402,585 | 63,402,585 |
483a28ef547c8547770f267d681951ab6cbefddd | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x7f30ccdbb46cec1aec5d625237257a2ca5423884d267c3ab5917b93ae5b034f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United? | 63,556,665 | 63,556,665 |
523fd9e8970942225cde1d427f7781a378c476e5 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x8ba40d1a63ec547d6abd0dd621b8f141d06ad99d9114ff6ffb8b1ad8fe13568a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Will Bayern Munich beat Barcelona? | 63,556,665 | 63,556,665 |
427b98dcd0b57ae0d1f91fac0c48dfe152d60c9e | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xb68216ee425ab7e9b1a676884cb7f64ec67b9b5d733a48b540a4c04f3d50a81e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Will the match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich end in a draw? | 63,556,665 | 63,556,665 |
9421cb3f677b007edfed220f98754f28308358cc | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x44a2c0327128c95af4792c8d0253ffc1273b5031d5bdd8916d02ef3053aa4aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-27? | 63,963,086 | 63,963,086 |
0d99c9e5fd885e4959ee571149d468410c2c5927 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xa6f4e7e88360b30eab60e7cf1d2d16f94f5b7b1c9f969db0a9529e7eb4a8b79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-ac-milan | Will the match between Real Madrid and AC Milan end in a draw? | 63,963,086 | 63,963,086 |
de0634177efa9ecb595bbf9c726d29f9f231934e | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xd939cfff18773c362e2fe4fcb3c48b54f448a0f79c23c9495899e8d96894553d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Spurs end in a draw? | 63,963,086 | 63,963,086 |
78848232cf0eb821e59372c83c0788b8569bd9f4 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xeb03cc9cb139e4adcf57a0ec29d17034939f3a3fab5ab513ee94804e1384283c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | 63,963,086 | 63,963,086 |
9da66399f22fe13efe158380425f07dba0e266ac | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x354000748b08a79c77afc332c5c7d1e71046aac8e9d47abde7f6630589e36850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | 64,958,396 | 64,958,396 |
f82a8c2439af4421de57b8b45c6874f81199b278 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x60cb346cf5918a21b559cef8d3193e16cd441e09c42bd79208ba9c5eff1987f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | 64,958,396 | 64,958,396 |
8c8e758d9385a2feeb2ca6e25df88903aef6d9cd | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x8a7b69abc1d76efc78d7c33d35410bc3cc19b6c689a9135a6f24338ecc0bd81b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-sturm-graz-vs-girona | Will Girona beat Sturm Graz? | 64,958,396 | 64,958,396 |
45219fd24bac7e26b3ac3f74a078297851a6c2d0 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xda7a95af4a0a81a58c452269e5df4dc5e175bd0aa015c8c7b217e3b1fc2f7cb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Viktoria Plzen? | 64,958,396 | 64,958,396 |
0040d873687922ec8c00cbc10d5be487d1f293fc | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x7163f98615e577c3220ce47ea37460a544b52384194495f319d5ab943aabfc75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | 65,264,817 | 65,264,817 |
7dc4f6c4687637d161b392405aaceb900261869f | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xf78abfc43175aa33233ae44899b15dfc7ae461047dc1961f4d578bd23f439749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | 65,264,817 | 65,264,817 |
b8c70fe52580744bf0e3406c0a11afa22f3ee711 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x43e5aecbff7959de7b676b1626b29f55aad8ee7e620b1da5b7fbe5c99f9b57f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-inter-milan | Will Inter Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen? | 65,402,779 | 65,402,779 |
df33d68d9c0391f346b69691281530972ae979fc | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x00aebfa73ed09961504a16f6c47972b2f3aad10cecac17d41952f5adfc89eaeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-16? | 65,629,824 | 65,629,824 |
4ff736248e6aeb462f2635f6a01347b21727e778 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x36f9dad76d2ab7e760c4335cc0a679787ff8807f8236976e0516d56650522e79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bri-2024-12-30 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30? | 66,226,062 | 66,226,062 |
611b853bc25a57e799f4f27f730e339695b15a8d | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x9f3a0c78c0969ca40c2c23655cebf8065aa2fb61fba347b4cd832ae0d6e52e0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-01-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20? | 66,960,993 | 66,960,993 |
f6ec3d01898d64cfda938c217755e8c915f6c69f | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xf8e53912659568f7377e1e7979fa47e0c6682ed1bdf1ff26e39cc7874ae0cfa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | no | 1 | ucl-benfica-vs-barcelona | Will Benfica beat Barcelona? | 67,009,719 | 67,009,719 |
7ff40a37e5d8e83e6571beb6b9b689670fa4bda9 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x4e7086b53afedbd1a64392ac997c8b81ae65eb7f244c61ffc66b3fa881e8c9e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-sporting-cp | Will Sporting CP beat RB Leipzig? | 67,423,682 | 67,423,682 |
22b3872a6f923b302de0037c6129006eef444e1a | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xfc7a6b8d488cb8415b4528cec97931133a27c95a912bc60cb348bedcb108c241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-stade-brestois | Will Stade Brestois beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 67,423,682 | 67,423,682 |
a4a35f41d41cae07548e92cc947a44e20834f60e | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xfe49d0c4e76da97f60877491f6ec04af9a1595dec40e3da0f51e0d2ba95f4db5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayern-munich | Will Bayern Munich beat Feyenoord? | 67,423,682 | 67,423,682 |
970821002249bae97949c7916711778a11eafaab | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x039f8d7cb56ede2e44ecc64a5080dcd16c91f86cb4245ec60e8bc6780a953efa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-eve-2025-02-15 | Will Everton win on 2025-02-15? | 68,001,720 | 68,001,720 |
6349a17c1ad62d193e755d1f1ce9c2d212753530 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x130015886a296c4a64184d4373c7dcaf497727085f5134ff497712a211152f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-bou-2025-02-15 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-15? | 68,001,720 | 68,001,720 |
d9a50ff880079f4e68bff9667b54a2250007aaf8 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x71179d412f7e948012f76b5397cad339ce6a225a9677cfc6a4e33b4bab0c2c9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-14? | 68,001,720 | 68,001,720 |
9f7dd757dd1abf78ec55a77b293131fab275eaf0 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xadbd5bd971cd3d1a032af5a0793564e9a666c4d89fbbb8d91ef2e8f67b67d18e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-02-16 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-16? | 68,119,642 | 68,119,642 |
d937317a5d348197fabea4a06a3418c737850e87 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x048374a28e4ff552bef4c8b783b211f91c7b3b989888d764b327d338402898fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Belgium? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-leag... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-spo-2025-02-19 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-19? | 68,366,991 | 68,366,991 |
182e279c308c39b5e0cb4f3e21cbe0db5f4e1d5e | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xba1058f2129c354bd4dd344855beaecd37ed0433299b1e5b9a98a7b323c9febd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine beat Czech Republic? | Event: uefa-n... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04? | 68,680,438 | 68,680,438 |
5bb3493778ff8fa07a321447824450073ae9e54b | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x0d282c849c5cdb0a4b68064fdfed69765a61e88d5fc3b04269fc5e01677add9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine beat Georgia? | Event: uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine beat Czech Republic? | Event: uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-czech-republic | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | 68,717,438 | 68,717,438 |
f9df507701b7217a9dad568162b5278e3fa945e7 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x891c92ef400365bd12188ce0a9330e8fbf4fd243a52648e301d6a0610e2d7144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine beat Czech Republic? | Event: uefa-nations-league-ukraine-vs-czech-republic | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahce beat Manche... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | 68,717,438 | 68,717,438 |
533ea7887edf20b894f0e6b3b3d0b93b674bb0b7 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xc044969b32938e2b4a794eeef8a8cbd093051a75b6351f379e38cb6d7f917610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich be... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09? | 70,119,661 | 70,119,661 |
d8c01995ff813d04ba78724876af397022e447e1 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x5c89fdddb177ad8fea8119eb3eb2328b4a0901db93021351fa7bba39e76f3e36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Barcelona ... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-ast-2025-04-12 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-12? | 70,224,608 | 70,224,608 |
e9a67e939e705a96fd679850cf4d15f6659fe51c | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x525acb81b587c0787ace047d4df37732ea94af9e300f157784169a00d91d9b2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ips-2025-04-13 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-04-13? | 70,345,327 | 70,345,327 |
b282a37ee808368fb6f11477a174e1f66e5c2317 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xdb17fd6c9b1bf3976e9df9e43ec8d0c0f653dd267d0d8cf007612d96fc1c2d85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Real Mad... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-15? | 70,406,856 | 70,406,856 |
da2f2312db56a5c02e155251bbcb788f78cf8e0c | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xe48c32e546b27649ef09c5427914609e44906a1023182964f970dc143e8c4e6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Real Madrid and AC Milan end in a draw? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-ac-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Spurs end in ... | no | 0.999927 | epl-ast-ful-2025-05-03 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? | 71,105,012 | 71,105,012 |
318f2692781b1c7fb9d4aa1904cccd38e6f8ba80 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xca63e47c977557793ac28b654a45e8147292e1189675a0fafbf18f123ff84496 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Real Madrid and AC Milan end in a draw? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-ac-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Spurs end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat ... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-bar-2025-05-06 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? | 71,214,208 | 71,214,208 |
86ab37a55a8e02b317d9703023e2a54cc6c17f97 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xfb110751f464227779c659deadc4b177030c4c69548b39a3a9316be153696efd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Spurs end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ars-2025-05-07 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07? | 71,250,476 | 71,250,476 |
dfd401cb04ada3d291ff702148f9c172a138d678 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x41a9052efcb4a37b81cedc263e65934e547c9ae5fb163f01006f39d1433affff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-... | yes | 1 | uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08? | 71,292,633 | 71,292,633 |
071437e6cbeeb8dcb8d92555b23bb01c4d1a1245 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x21cc28a0353a9f49c0672bffdef4e75f1a2bd836bbd5446912ecd94bea4670f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Sturm Graz? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-giron... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bri-2025-05-10 | Will Wolves win on 2025-05-10? | 71,360,171 | 71,360,171 |
b9c5cee5e236b55f7d2c58089b4c7aef17fcc5e5 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x3711d54a1c9b33af2e4a840ece296aafa11c0008d16dfb96e67b22874c7ffff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Liverpool? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-real-madrid-nov-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Girona beat Sturm Graz? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-girona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: europa-league-d... | no | 1 | epl-ful-eve-2025-05-10 | Will Fulham win on 2025-05-10? | 71,360,171 | 71,360,171 |
e1da55108d9ed78f358faae906d29ec7d4f35b45 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x81612c693056dc661a422851250725ca78206a086b69d5974cdac1705cd62b62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Girona beat Sturm Graz? | Event: ucl-sturm-graz-vs-girona | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bre-2025-05-10 | Will Brentford win on 2025-05-10? | 71,360,171 | 71,360,171 |
8b1167e91712e68656a3f67c8b9c119fb979eb31 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xf4f0e5b45045a1bb7ca429e751e3c6797210d44092204634227efa8fecdbaff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: europa-league-dynamo-kyiv-vs-viktoria-plzen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event:... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ast-2025-05-10 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-10? | 71,378,415 | 71,378,415 |
d1ec32dacc5ce8a2bf563a016e318c8e3ff51bb5 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0xb1bd5ad16283499a2d36d62f0325d4f9069426a7fc745a2aa735983943f0cbeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkus... | yes | 1 | epl-new-che-2025-05-11 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-11? | 71,395,609 | 71,395,609 |
34cb83ec494f49d9fe45af721065c2be644537bd | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x2af6d91917694bdaa60b23fe512fc63a1da9fa7e6d50081aaf5b62bf9fa859d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-16? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-cry-2025-05-11 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-11? | 71,398,218 | 71,398,218 |
635296a6bb541b2cc0ee62cb6ea151b3bb8040c0 | 0x3d4ce36068931cbda9f7dd0989e8d4bdf725f7de | 0x9598fa8858178f79ca879997b52893ebece27e33b55586ec4b5640e44821fa99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-16? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-a... | yes | 1 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-real-madrid | Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid? | 71,422,906 | 71,422,906 |
b2f41a684176e8356b003e88b5ff515623ef5c2e | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x729832336b1344aab2531ba0bfb192a674fce114004eb020d5bc3cd9bfcb40d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,391,914 | 52,391,914 |
f576ed01612febb9578190dd4865a34d9c5f92ff | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x9f48a05fb3f34c80866fc41729ec0b085dba86c944df2b0400b925c31e56e233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary?
Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | 52,693,655 | 52,693,655 |
17a59052184385f4b7e78d8c86c3b2a7546d8fb4 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x30ce0b7719d7ad6fdab4bb100faea702ba481864a72df51c8632a6933f356dfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: W... | no | 1 | how-many-reposts-will-mrbeasts-250k-giveaway-get | Will MrBeast's giveaway tweet be the most reposted of all time? | 53,228,765 | 53,228,765 |
eb8dcb31cd51af0f8bf8b5d4492a93c835c64d9e | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xe91b26e02e0a35d164b243a1b1a70d5886441084e9da1f3f664f052730030cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 53,419,028 | 53,419,028 |
7259acf33f5c89d53da43bada9e1b5f03f92eec0 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x4f4fcd345250caf8a129d5528b0f9f641c34dbf2d96a8650590c8485466de299 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 30-40% of the vote? | 54,242,735 | 54,242,735 |
f559c25b182f3dcfd9551c7dbff7f0840dbdffdc | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x21be7daceb0b5463e4affbbf2c66d100bb7d7d706c9851ea965f41ed8135f870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-michigan-primary | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | 54,243,306 | 54,243,306 |
355c66feda8e3618ef766c7233bc095cf3ffe1d8 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x0bc44e3e0f5796fefb68b3866832f045503fc83bcc3b15089f0a83fa27cdb79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Will Massachusetts be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
7103cb12d57de779b3b6c40b89ff2632349e2f56 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x33ad8fe940ad79febf41181020a5bbfee9ffb632b28f6412035798fb4fe00198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 300k-353k jobs in February? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
e7571dcb435b7e24e8e9b7c3cdc0bb2917620e14 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x3c89bca9ceb8cc7011b5e908d73a8fd477e8adcb16089d7de5c8d3809a28a2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday | Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
fbb465b6301b5973dcde8191a3e14bb8c9832e39 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0x4f0cad7e5504080b120caed8b52c8f5ba113f68fd5c27b060f126b5f0ee73500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 250k-300k jobs in February? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
ac9513b185626279484d8e63bc27933fbbcec34b | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xb0ced8080b1831d2eecf7bc4c175275a1c7c4c5a415d77c7b9613e4b76564401 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain less than 200k jobs in February? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
b3311d749dbaa758d06cb43684a29374086725f4 | 0x3d64c3761d86ebfa99eceb4285d427caf3d98501 | 0xd449a3ec46769ad33bd1154d97dc7d6bba2709e36189da608510de01e68a0a3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | Event: iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Event: new-hampshire-republican-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-february | Will US gain 200k-250k jobs in February? | 54,450,950 | 54,450,950 |
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