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Figure 3.24: DIN Zcusum for trends in Biscayne Bay 56
Figure 3.25: Salinity Zcusum for trends in Biscayne Bay 57
Figure 3.26: DO Zcusum for trends in Biscayne Bay 58
Figure 3.27: Temperature Zcusum for trends in Biscayne Bay 58
Figure 4.1: Components of box-model used for mass-balance calculations 61
Figure 4.2: Spatial structure of the nutrient box-model 62
Figure 5.1: Biscayne National Park and canal network 69
Figure 5.2: Changes in land cover/land use in Miami’s Greater Metropolitan 70
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Figure 6.1: Spatial coverage of FIU Water Quality Monitoring Network 83
Figure 6.2: Flow diagram for the derivation of Numeric Nutrient Criteria 85
Figure 6.3: Biogeochemical segmentation of South Florida’s waters 87
Figure 6.4: Driver:Response relationships 91
Figure 6.5: Chlorophyll-a Zcusum charts along TN and TP gradients 92
Figure 6.6: Total Nitrogen and Phosphorous thresholds for South Florida waters 93
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Summarized Purposes, Tasks and Goals of the study 4
Table 2.1. Descriptive statistics of rainwater chemical composition 23
Table 3.1: Percent DO exceedances 48
Table 3.2: Results of Kruskal-Wallis test comparing TN, TP and CHLa 49
Table 3.3: Year of occurrence of major breaks along the POR 59
Table 5.1 Summary of Climate Change Impacts 81
Table 6.1: Aggregation of SoFlo basins into segments by PC/Cluster 85
Table 6.2: TP and TN thresholds, LT-L and UP-L for South Florida water classes 95
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Acknowledgements
A great number of people assisted in completing this project. In particular we wish to
express our sincere thanks to Joffre Castro of the National Park Service, South Florida
Ecosystem Office for his support and invaluable cooperation to complete this research.
Thanks are given to David Rudnick and Chris Madden (South Florida Water
Management District), Chris Kelble (NOAA), Susan Markley and Steve Blair (MiamiDade County Department of Environmental Research Management), Larry Brand
(UM/RSMAS), Brian Lapointe (FAU) and Lynn Wingard (US Geological Survey), for
their expertise, insights, and guidance. Their help and collaboration were highly
appreciated. This project was funded by the National Park Service under Task
Agreement # J5297-08-0085, Cooperative Agreement # H5000-06-0104. This report is
Contribution # T-530 of the Southeast Environmental Research Center at Florida
International University
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INTRODUCTION
The history of Biscayne National Park begins with the authorization of the
Biscayne National Monument by the Act of October 18, 1968 (82 Stat. 1188; 16 U.S.C.
450qq). Later, in June 28, 1980, of all Biscayne National Monument lands, waters, and
interests therein were finally incorporated within and made a part of Biscayne National
Park (BNP). Finally, the U. S. Congress designated 69,606 hectares of central and
southern Biscayne Bay (BB) as Biscayne National Park (BNP) in 1982. As such, BNP
became the largest marine park in the national park system. BNP is bounded by
protected areas, on the south and east by the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary
and on the north by the extension of the Biscayne Bay Aquatic Preserve, but its western
boundary is with the city of Miami. Being adjacent to a major and fast-growing
metropolis like Miami presents serious threats to the park integrity and to its resources,
hence, besides monitoring and surveillance of those resources it is necessary to
evaluate the potential impacts from land-use changes, such as those caused by
industrial and urban development.
There are two main objectives in this project. One is to develop an
understanding of nutrient inflows into BB, their effects on the bay’s water quality, and to
evaluate the ecological impacts on BNP’s resources associated with future population
growth and land use changes as detailed on the Miami-Dade County Watershed Study
and Plan (MDWSP), which is covered in Sections 1 through 5. The other objective is the
derivation of numeric nutrient criteria for estuaries and coastal waters in South Florida,
which is discussed in Section 6.
The report provides a summary assessment of condition of the water resources
of BNP aimed to identify and to evaluate threats and stressors that act on BNP natural
resources posing risks to its biological integrity. The report is based exclusively on
synthesis and exhaustive analysis of pre-existing data and covers resource groups
located on terrestrial, freshwater and coastal-bay-marine areas within and adjacent to
BNP. A regional scope is adopted, given the profound transformations experienced in
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the Bay watershed and the forecast changes derived from the MDWSP and also from
the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP).
The National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program (NPSIMP) use
physical, chemical and biological elements and processes of park ecosystems to define
―Vital Signs‖ that represent the overall health and condition of any given park. The
South Florida/Caribbean network of the NPSIMP identified vital signs of concern to the
managers of national parks in the region, nested within a hierarchical conceptual
structure. NPSIMP Level 1 groups the vital signs into 5 classes – geology and soils,
water, biological integrity, human use and landscape patterns and processes. Each one
of these categories includes vital signs that are relevant to the conditions of the biotic
resources of BNP. Given the fundamental relevance of water and its quality to
ecosystem structure and functioning, water is the center of attention in the present
study. Geology, soils, human use and landscape patterns and processes are
considered under the scope of their impacts on water availability and quality. Within this
general conceptual framework, we will describe the water resources of BNP.
To accomplish the objective above, broadly defined tasks shown in Table 1 were
proposed. This Final Report has been structured into six sections, as follows:
SECTION 1: Data Collection and Quality Assessment-Control
Describes the data sources, the verification of their quality and steps taken to assure
their potential and limitations, and presents the compiled numeric information in a
Master Database in Microsoft Access format.
SECTION 2: Park Description
This section includes a summary description of BNP resources, highlighting relevant
pre-modification system dynamics as well as those changes natural and/or
anthropogenic, leading to WQ modifications.
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SECTION 3: Statistical Analysis
Describes the methods applied for statistical characterization of water quality (WQ) in
BNP and surrounding water bodies, as well as methods and results of trend analysis
and biogeochemical segmentation of BB waters.
SECTION 4: Box Modeling
In this section the conceptual structure of the box-model developed in the study, as well
as its results are presented. Given that box-modeling was performed in close