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Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
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Large accelerated filer
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[x]
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Non-accelerated filer []
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Emerging growth company []
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Accelerated filer []
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Smaller reporting company []
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If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. []
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Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes [] No
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As of April 18, 2023, there were 5,941 million shares of Alphabet’s Class A stock outstanding, 882 million shares of Alphabet's Class B stock outstanding, and 5,874 million shares of Alphabet's Class C stock outstanding.
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Image / Bigstock | Bagir Bahana / Unsplash
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GLOBAL TRENDS OVERVIEW
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ENVIRONMENT
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Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to human and national security and force states to make hard choices and tradeoffs. The burdens will be unevenly distributed, heightening competition, contributing to instability, straining military readiness, and encouraging political movements.
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ECONOMICS
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Several global economic trends, including rising national debt, a more complex and fragmented trading environment, the global spread of trade in services, new employment disruptions, and the continued rise of powerful firms, are shaping conditions within and between states. Calls for more planning and regulation will intensify, particularly of large platform, e-commerce corporations.
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TECHNOLOGY
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The pace and reach of technological developments will increase, transforming human experiences and capabilities while creating new tensions and disruptions for all actors. Global competition for the core elements of technology supremacy will increase. Spin off technologies and applications will enable rapid adoption.
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STATE
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Governments will face mounting pressures from the combination of economic constraints; demographic, environmental, and other challenges; and more empowered populations. A growing gap between public demands and what governments can deliver will raise tensions, increase political volatility, and threaten democracy. The mismatch may also spur new or shifting sources and models of governance.
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INTERNATIONAL
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Power in the international system will evolve to include a broader set of sources, but no single state is likely to be positioned to dominate across all regions or domains. The United States and China will have the greatest influence on global dynamics, forcing starker choices on other actors, increasing jockeying over global norms, rules, and institutions, and heightening the risk of interstate conflict.
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A WORLD ADRIFT
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The international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules and institutions are largely ignored. OECD countries are plagued by slower economic growth, widening societal divisions, and political paralysis. China is taking advantage of the West’s troubles to expand its international influence. Many global challenges are unaddressed.
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COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE
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The United States and China have prioritized economic growth and restored a robust trading relationship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage. The risk of major war is low, and international cooperation and technological innovation make global problems manageable.
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SEPARATE SILOS
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The world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the EU, Russia, and a few regional powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense. Information flows within separate cyber-sovereign enclaves, supply chains are reoriented, and international trade is disrupted. Vulnerable developing countries are caught in the middle.
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TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION
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A global coalition, led by the EU and China working with NGOs and revitalized multilateral institutions, is implementing far-reaching changes designed to address climate change, resource depletion, and poverty following a global food catastrophe caused by climate events and environmental degradation. Richer countries shift to help poorer ones manage the crisis and then transition to low carbon economies through broad aid programs and transfers of advanced energy technologies.
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A MORE CONTESTED WORLD
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5
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large segments of the global population are becoming wary of institutions and governments that they see as unwilling or unable to address their needs. People are gravitating to familiar and like-minded groups for community and security, including ethnic, religious, and cultural identities as well as groupings around interests and causes, such as environmentalism. The combination of newly prominent and diverse identity allegiances and a more siloed information environment is exposing and aggravating fault lines within states, undermining civic nationalism, and increasing volatility.
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At the state level, the relationships between societies and their governments in every region are likely to face persistent strains and tensions because of a growing mismatch between what publics need and expect and what governments can and will deliver. Populations in every region are increasingly equipped with the tools, capacity, and incentive to agitate for their preferred social and political goals and to place more demands on their governments to find solutions. At the same time that populations are increasingly empowered and demanding more, governments are coming under greater pressure from new challenges and more limited resources. This widening gap portends more political volatility, erosion of democracy, and expanding roles for alternative providers of governance. Over time, these dynamics might open the door to more significant shifts in how people govern.
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In the international system, no single state is likely to be positioned to dominate across all regions or domains, and a broader range of actors will compete to shape the international system and achieve narrower goals. Accelerating shifts in military power, demographics,
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economic growth, environmental conditions, and technology, as well as hardening divisions over governance models, are likely to further ratchet up competition between China and a Western coalition led by the United States. Rival powers will jockey to shape global norms, rules, and institutions, while regional powers and nonstate actors may exert more influence and lead on issues left unattended by the major powers. These highly varied interactions are likely to produce a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment, undermine global multilateralism, and broaden the mismatch between transnational challenges and institutional arrangements to tackle them.
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ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR 2040
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Human responses to these core drivers and emerging dynamics will determine how the world evolves during the next two decades. Of the many uncertainties about the future, we explored three key questions around conditions within specific regions and countries and the policy choices of populations and leaders that will shape the global environment. From these questions, we constructed five scenarios for alternative worlds in the year 2040.
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How severe are the looming global challenges?
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How do states and nonstate actors engage in the world, including focus and type of engagement?
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Finally, what do states prioritize for the future?
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In Renaissance of Democracies, the world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered
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8
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GLOBAL TRENDS 2040
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ALGONQUIN COLLEGE
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Horticultural Industries (Co-op)
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