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OO is trying to have a false statement. They say Putin can only be successful so long as [inaudible], we don’t know. To be fair, having all of us is a success. We're going to probably play what is actually what. But before that, some other points. What are the most likely in favor of this? Even if they present. Three reasons. One, they already have relationships internally; they control most of production in Russia, and they mostly export them to countries like China. Secondly, they can take them to the EU and US through hiding their corporations, as they do, like using ships, flags, etc. Therefore, it has not hit them. The average Russian citizen, they are nationalistic. This is because they grew up in a US side environment with propaganda and anti-US sentiment. This is above the material wealth because they already have it. You can have one restaurant, but your nationalistic tendency towards like, one in Ukraine is way, way higher than the one you're going to. For me, the long term, the point is that you’re more like, they have more capability of production. Note, these all are the ones that have power over putin and putin has power over them, then theming it is good. The government does not have to prove that this only uses money, they need to prove that they still have so much money to care about, they have all the production, I don't think that's possible; that's why two points, one, why Putin is able to consolidate more power, and two, why Putin fulfills his basic ideology. And therefore, even... Okay, going back, why the crisis is going good for Russia right now? Three reasons, one, long-term play. Note, this new play is relying mostly on US funding, which is slowly being diminished. This is because, one, people in the West have many concerns about their own countries and their own crises of inflation. This means that the majority of things Ukraine is seeing right now is not the future; this means not only can they take back but most likely Putin will also take more back. Secondly, they have already taken Crimea; this has a high realization. They say, "Oh no, there's only two of us," but then they have seized other stuff like connections and sea ports. This can never go away, most likely because there is not a massive increase in Ukraine. Now, the situation is going well, even if it's losing a lot of money. |
The two reasons, one, propaganda, Putin has the ability to whatever out of the way. I got most of the current. Notice, that the amount of power that they say, is very limited. This is actually going well, so there is no reason to actually[inaudible], It is very hard for you to posit. You cannot do; Most likely the US has way closer connections to Ukraine, and maybe Ukraine is actually getting closer. Even if that's not the case, it's still impossible for putin, even then, if it's not successful, he still... Why? One,he is able to hold more power. This means he can do more because the focus is more on Ukraine. But secondly, he's able to consolidate power among the missionaries all this time. I think at this point,this power is at already because of the outside of Ukraine. This means that he is massively decapitated, and he can do that. But putin faced massive backloss towards potentially losing economy, the crisis is a positive story, not putin only can say and maintain power,not that even or like other things,but like, I don't know, pushing for. |
<poi> |
This entire speech. Why maybe is the case this has gone well, what you need to explain is why the things that he would have done on the comparative Consolidated power are worse. |
</poi> |
No, no, because, okay, second, because of the prevention of US expansion. Why do the US have more power over this region? Two reasons, one, Ukraine has an active incentive to NATO. This is to prevent what happened right now. But secondly, the US is also expanding its influence in Ukraine. This is because of projects like NATO, which has a closer threat point to Russia. Therefore, they can minimize their sovereignty; they can get better deals for them when it comes to petrol. Why? I think in the first place you have very tendencies, but secondly, the US probably... Probably. Why then this is a beneficial for thing for putin, even if he fails? That he successfully, meaning in his ideology. Three reasons, one, he attempted it in the first place, this of not do, which would be much more because possibly ukraine, therefore this ideology is false. Secondly, he can gaslight and I think he is doing that. This means that putin has spread his notation to expand elsewhere, like more power. |
</lo> |
<dpm> |
Let me be very clear about what the counterfactual is in this debate, because it's important that even if opening opposition have some concerns about why it may be the case that it is unclear. Why, we think that the alternative world is better? There are a couple of things, there are five things. Firstly, you massively minimize sanctions risk on you and your cronies as Putin if you have stuck to the status quo. Be very clear; status quo were before the war in Ukraine, was that Putin aggressively fighting in EU, that had control of at least 40% of Bakhmut in addition to Crimea. It was that, as a result of the sanction. Thirdly, because of the Eastern conflict, because it happened in 2014, it initially became considered a conflict in 2016 and 2017, and even in 2018, Trump was even suing for Eu because there would be common perception that they were not going to be informed, that they were sturdy and therefore, the ukrainians would have their table and negotiate putin, all of that has gone because people are alarmed at how these things have gotten worse and they don't believe that putin will engage in agreement. He has already invaded the whole of Ukraine. But thirdly, the national army invasion massively increased the the sanction including number of people you can sanction. For example, more oligarchs, more have been sanctioned as a result of Ukraine. If you consider certain individuals responsible, that is why you were able to sanction to a great extent in the first place, because there is still space to sanction. The fact that a marginal increase in sanctions is actually huge would have been lost on their side. |
Why does this matter in the debate? Because despite what opening opposition said, these individuals do care about being sanctioned. Why do we know they care about being sanctioned? We're talking about the same oligarchs who literally robbed their country in the 1990s amidst the chaos of the Soviet Union. We're talking about the same individuals who are primarily concerned with their own wealth and their own accumulation, and who like to express that by going to New York, London, and so on. So on the comparative, who make up for the fact that they’ve lost their, so many benefits that they have, and the crutaly there is a breaking point; that we might not believe that it happens now, but given the opening opportunity, the most important reason why Russia is going to win the debate is that it's going to be a war of endurance. They will come when you push the people too hard, because opening opposition are correct that in order for this to work, they need a stockpile of economic resources, whichis now decreasing. That came from the people living in Russia. They also need to compensate for that only so long understandable model, and also it breaks. It doesn't mean necessarily, that putin be expected, but it means that the longer the war goes on, the longer that endurance exists, the more likely it is that the first. We need to think about all they've been able to achieve, given that we're talking about a flat plane of warfare., given that we're talking about Russia having more artillery and more men, but equally Ukraine with better weapons, I think that it's obvious that there is going to come a point where it is unsustainable. |
And they're not going to be able to sustain this little bit more. Secondly, because they say the point, because Russia would have been able to more strategically, if they still continued in their current mindset because russia would have been able, for example, win certain mind strategy around the region solidify, build an actual functioning government in these regions, so that it becomes harder in negotiations to be able to say that you should give these regions back to Ukraine. |
That's the stimulus to actually get in the real world, when it comes to all of that, they're doing. Thirdly, the environment around Russia is, they have more terrorists, for the same anxiety of the Soviet Union, and that is true. But we all hear that Sweden and Finland are joining NATO. I do not see alarm; it's obviously a degree of work and a degree of influence that makes it hard for any future finlandization to occur. Fourthly, I think that motion buying is actually badly computed. It had to be done in the context of the Ukraine war because, became so angry or challenging for Putin. However, he lost on the capacity to have a non-state actor who engages in Russia, whether that is the likelihood of their mining operations in Africa, which actually allowed them to build a lot of resources to use for future war efforts in Syria, or would it be dedicated for who they can push around while trying to avoid these sanctions. |
Finally, I think we need to recognize that Russia has also invaded, and they are also related to the United states. What does all this mean? The first thing I want to point out is that regardless of whether or not Russia is able to sustain this. We give you comprehensive reasons why Russia's economy is on a trend of being flushed. The luke of being closed, the Hungarian Russian gas negotiated expire points, and they were just transitionary. People are moving from gas from Guana and moving towards oil from Qatar. This is going to further produce Russia's oil and state finances because it's so dependent on oil, and the other aspect of their economy, because they are manufacturing[inaudible], means that the Russian economy is on a trend of more and more desparate situation. |
So in all of this, the Russian economy is going to have more extreme decisions, they are going to need more weapons, and they need to watch out for potential challenges. They have their own incentive to gain all the power that they have. None of this would happen if they could get away with it. |
</dpm> |
<dlo> |
Eleanor, stated when maduro was about to miss from Venezuela, he had huge temptation. there's a pattern, there's a clear pattern when oligarchs are about use power, where they stage huge crisis to be able to maintain power to be able to control what is happen but but most importantly, keep saying kind of, to show how this will play out if someone display. we have major control actually have this kind of getting out of control I think for open government they have to Wi economic to the extent that this kind of I don't think they do this in why is more important and I think actually why the house M was so three things in my spe one assuming they have power2 but secondly why the economic is not |
important it's quite nor F but the thing why actually this kind of atrocities and people actually speaking out getting was the only way to actually maintain Ukraine under control first at on the they say look in 2022 we had power because was in control and because annexation I think these two |
illustrations are not structural enough to explain why2 you had mous power why they they said in the you were in your power this is not proven right I think2 like pu was choking and he was suffocating for four structural reasons one NATO already proposed UK you you |
have to add in remember that Ukraine was compaining that complic for not speak anything like the process of uking NATO also like laia and all the other like Lithuania all the other like B countries that are surrounding Russia in in thehere of inflence right so this |
means from the perspective of Russia pu was signicantly sof the moment that NATO was proposing Ukraine to spe the process to join is the moment that Putin was suffocating he was under the influence of fear of losing Capital two internally he was under huge critic right he was |
What does this mean? El will turn away. We're going to explain why actually the most important thing is to know what opening government say about this. There are a couple of things firstly; they say that now we'll be more reliant on all the oligarchs, and secondly, that elites might oppose Putin because one, they don't think he's going to win, and two, sanctions, without any explanation of why that reached a tipping point. |
Firstly, I want to explain why oligarchs are the most crucial thing for Putin holding power. That is to say, why are they in a position where they are able to resist Putin? The reason why oligarchs have such a powerful position in Russia is because they have a monopoly on state capacity. What does that mean? It means that oligarchs control the arms of state propaganda; they own the state-run television stations, they own the state-run newspapers. They control what information gets out to the people of Russia. They are, for example, the heads of the police and important people stationed within the military that have significant control over the kinds of decisions that the police and military make. They have the heads of the most important and most lucrative state corporations. That is to say, they are the ones that own the oil and gas companies; they are the ones that own the construction business, and they are the ones that order all these things. This means that they have significant amounts of political and economic leverage over Putin and over Russia as a whole. |
There are three important implications of this fact. Firstly, their cooperation is crucial in keeping the population complacent. That is to say, you need oligarchs that are going to spit out the propaganda; you need oligarchs that want to cooperate to the fullest extent. Secondly, the support of these oligarchs is necessary for the fulfillment of other ideological things that Putin wants to do. It's not just about open positions. You need to reach the tipping point where they do not see Putin as a sufficient leader. |
But that's not true. All you need to do is believe they're less likely to cooperate. That's less likely, for example, to loan billions of rubles to Putin in order to expand military operations to Africa. They're less likely to do all of these things and mobilize the capital that they have. So if people believe that Putin is an ideological man and cares about things like geopolitical influence, it means that he is not able to do that into the future as much, really. |
But thirdly, they do have the capacity to act against him. If you believe the analysis, they have billions and billions of dollars, and they have control of important stations, military, and police and security. I think they have the capacity to act against him. |
The second important gap is why is it the case that the oligarchs are less likely to cooperate with Putin? Opening government talks about why is it that they are less likely to cooperate. They say they are pissed off because of sanctions with generic material, and it doesn't reach the burden that opening set. There are three reasons why this does reach that. Firstly, because the West seems to be implementing targeted sanctions. It seizes the assets of oligarchs and does things like freeze the bank accounts they have in Switzerland, the US, and in London. This doesn't just reach a tipping point because this is where the vast majority of the assets of these oligarchs are, because if you want to have cool access to like cool banks in Switzerland and stuff, you need to go to Switzerland. If you want luxury consumer goods and jets, you can't just find them in all of Russia. |
Secondly, it means that your corporations that you own are less likely to do well. Opening government says that now, for example, the EU is more likely to keep away from Russian oil and gas. The impact that they attach to that is bad for the economy in general. So people get upset. The actual impact you should reach is that there is an oligarch that owns that company. It is a state-owned oil operation and gas operation, which means that when the EU tries to pivot away from it in the long term, they want to hedge against the risk of Russia. When, for example, the West has political interests now not to give you state contracts to do things like construction and infrastructure development in your country because they are afraid of the political associations with that, you lose out on billions of dollars personally. The fact that these oligarchs' economic interests are being hurt, not just the fact that this is hurting the economy in general, but thirdly, it means that global finance is far, far harder because these oligarchs are locked out of the US dollar system. |
That's extraordinarily important because the ruble is weak, and so if you, as a rich oligarch, want to participate in the global financial system to a large degree, you necessarily need to trade in US dollars or other currencies. But at the point where you're locked out of that financial system, it becomes extraordinarily difficult to, for example, loan and make investments. |
Furthermore, the deterrence mechanism fails because they don't necessarily enjoy full-scale sanctions. My analysis shows that secondly, if all of them decide to oppose Putin, I already explained why they have the capacity to do that. Secondly, you say they don't care about finance and such, but they are oligarchs. They like to trample over other people; they care about money. They are willing to screw each other over to protect their wealth. |
Finally, nationalism is also contingent on this being a success. |
Firstly, we believe that the West will remain opposed. Therefore, leading to opening opposition by long-term consolidation and nationalist success. Firstly, the West needs to retain an image of strength in order for them to maintain the support of their allies, but also as a deterrence mechanism against future rogue states. Secondly, even if the US and Trump get elected, the US, like, supported the entirety of Europe. They are just worried about a war on their doorstep, so they are politically motivated to act against Russia going on into the indefinite future. But thirdly, it's the military-industrial complex that has lobbying incentives to push for further and further military aid to Ukraine, which means that they stay committed. |
</dlo> |
<mg> |
We're going to explain why actually the most important things know what opening government say about this. Firstly, he says that now we'll be more reliant on all dos and secondly, that Elites might suppose Putin because one, they don't think he's going to win and two, sanctions without any explanation of like why that reached Tipping Point by a in a couple of really crew gaps in that. The first Gap, I want to explain is, why is the case of oligarchs are the most crucial things Putin holding power, that is to say why are they in a position but they are able to, you know, resist democracy and that open government. the reason why oligarchs have such a powerful position in Russia is because they have a monopoly of State capacity. What does that mean? it means that oligarchs control the arms of State propaganda, they own the state run television stations, they own the state run newspapers and so they control what information gets help people of Russia. They are, for example, the heads of the police and important people stationed within the military that have important amounts of control over the like, you know, the kinds of things, decisions that the police and military made. they have the heads of the most important and most lucrative State Corporations. That is to say that they are the ones that own the oil and gas companies, they are the ones that own the construction business and they are the ones that order all these things. which mean that they have significant amounts of political and economic Leverage over Putin and over Russia as a whole. There are three important implications of this fact, firstly, their cooperation is crucial in keeping the population complacent. that is the say you need oligarchs that are going to spit out the propaganda you want, you need oligarchs that want to cooperate to the Po's extend program. Secondly, the support of these oligarchs is necessary for the Fulfillment of other ideological things that Putin wants to do, it's not just about like, open positions like, you need to reach the Tipping Point where they do, but that's not true all you need do is believe they're less likely to cooperate, that's less likely for example, to loan billions of rubles to Putin, in order to expand military operations to Africa, they're less likely to do all of these things and mobilize the capital that they have. so, if people believe that Putin is an ideological man and cares about things like geopolitical influence, making sure mean that he is not able to do that into the future as much really be can, but thirdly, they do got to have a capacity to, if you believe the analysis they have, billions and billions dollars and they have control of important station military and the police and security. I think they have the capacity to. Second, important, important Gap government talk about why is it the case this People of oligarchs to the extent that they are less likely to cooperate, with that challenges opening government, right. they are, they say you need to prove why the oligarchs are going to lose so much they are less likely cooperating with putin. open governments say they are only pissed because of sanctions with generic material and doesn't reach the burden that opening opposition set there. three reasons why this does reach that, firstly, because the West seem like targeted sanctions it seizes assets of oligarchs and does things like, freeze the bank account, they have in Switzerland, they have in the US and they have in London and note, just reaches a Tipping Point because this is where the vast majority of the assets of these oligarchs are. because if you want to have cool like, access to like, cool banks in Switzerland and like, you need to go to Switzerland if you want cars and like cool consumer goods and jets and stuff, you just kind of like you can't just find them in all them in Russia, you necessarily need to go to the West with the coolest most expensive shit that you want at oligarchs. secondly, because it means that your corporation that you yourself own, is less likely to do well. opening government says that now for example the EU is more likely to like, keep it away from run oil and gas and the impact that they attach that is bad for the economy in general, so people get upset, the actual impact you should reach that is that there is an oligarchy that owns that company, it is practically Elite, owns that state, owned oil operation and gas operation. which means that when the EU tried to Pivot away from it into long term because they want to hedge against the risk of Russia, when for example, the West has political interests now not to give you state contracts to do things like construction and infrastructure development in your country because they are afraid the political associations with that you lose out on billions of dollars, personally, is the fact that these Good's economic interests are being hurt, not just fact this hurting the economy General but thirdly, because it means that Global doing Global Finance is far, far harder because these oligarchs are locked out of the US dollar system and that's extraordinarily important because the ruble is fucking shit and so if you as a rich oligarchs want to participate in the Global Financial system to a large degree, you necessarily need to trade in US dollars or other countries but at the point which you're locked out of that Financial system and you find it extraordinarily difficult to, for example, loan and make investments. |
<poi> |
oligarchs have active incentives such as mass solutions but more important, who keep out.[inaudible] |
</poi> |
one, the deterrence mechanism fails because one, they don't necessarily enjoy full scale as my analysis shows. |
secondly, if all of them decides to could,I already explain why they have the capacity to do that, secondly, you say they don't care about finance and such but they're fucking oligarchs, they like trample over other people to like, they're screw to duck right, they're like, sing in their little like gold buo because that's all they care about in the world and they Jo a soul like this like they clearly care about money like is their the only Point like of doing anything but thirdly, nationalism is also contingent on this being a success robot. okay, finally, what say ons first they want to control anybody i'll explain as why need to point they set up, secondly, they can hide and find and stuff but obviously, the west and financial institutions in the west have both the incentive capacity to punish them when they try and find those loot because if you and the US government have enormous amounts of control over the GO Financial system, you have both political incentive but also reach the capacity to lock them out of that, to freeze all of their assets, they literally just have direct control over the things, I'm not sure what loopholes they're talking about. finally, okay, why the West will remain opposed therefore deleting opening opposition by long term consolidation and nationalist success? firstly, the West need to retain an image of strength in order for them to maintain the support of their allies but also a deterrence mechanism against future Road States. secondly, because the, even if the US and Trump get elected in the US like, supported the entirety of Europe is just worried about a war their doorstep so they are politically motivated to act against Russia, going on to the indefinite future but thirdly, it's the military industrial comp in have lobbying incentive to push for further and further military aid military infrastructure in Ukraine. which means that the stay committal number of government. |
</mg> |
<mo> |
The Russian government announced that if they lose these territories in Ukraine, they will move to Berlin. I think it's really important for this to happen because it shows that the consensus within Russia is that the loss of these territories is the most important thing in the world. It matters, economics matter, Politics matter, Security is envisioned by Putin. We are giving you predominantly a way extension. We'll do some extending on the bottom half and some fun things like that. But primarily, we're going to tell you what people care about most in Russia. |
We've heard loads of different things. He does care about retaining power, but let's talk about control a little bit. I want to flesh out what opening government talks about, what it actually means in reality. Because in reality, this looks like a slower approach; you're still trying to get assets in Ukraine. Some kind of thing, probably looking to the China-Taiwan infiltration strategy, because that is the thing you do attempt. Regional government in the Donbass region in elections or something like that, and that might not be explicitly Putin; they can say, "Oh, Putin would do it himself," but I think oligarchs would be doing this anyway because we've just shown you they care about it, the obvious, and therefore, they would do it. |
But without the consent, they would seek to stay by them. In this way, it's worse for Russia. |
There are three reasons, it's less control about the approach, which is bad anyway. Secondly, you have the slowest approach, which generates great opposition from those oligarchs who don't view you as doing the thing you are paid to do because if the oligarchs care about all this money, you are not doing the thing of giving them back Russian nationals they say. This means you are not doing your job. |
Thirdly, the West is very aware of these things now and has the capacity to control social media and deal with these things as well. The problem with this is that the Deputy Prime Minister made three ideas for why it's likely these things work. What is sanctions? I would say sanctions have actually favored Putin for the exact opposite of posing government sanctions, Sanctions have disempowered all of these people who would otherwise be significant threats to Putin's regime. |
Prior to 2014, viewed him as not getting enough done and was started to passest models between 2004 2008,we've seen there's a strong push from these people to bring in a somebody who was younger him as not getting enough done, and we have seen a strong push from these people to bring in someone who is younger. You didn't say this and secondly, also to bring in somebody who represents the oligarch class because as the debate has noticed, hugens was a former member of KGB. There are two things I’d like to bring out about that are, how they have his incentives specifically deepening the alition KGB here, but also very specifically, why he doesn't represent the two things that matter are, firstly, the soldier mentality of Putin. He has maintained his final orders ever since leaving the KGB, the defense of the USSR and its success above all other things. Secondarily, he embodies the idea of the defender of the Republic and views this fight as such. First, why we saw that news story from last week that Russia is saying it build even if it needs the eradication of Russia to defend its boundaries by any means necessary, including the use of nuclear weapons. That is the level to which he is committed to defending these territories or dying trying. |
That mentality is what told you in a meaningful way and it also weighs the debate because it explains to you why protecting these territories matters more than the economic factors or the ability to expand. Unless, as the Prime Minister says, the oligarchs were not people through Russia; they were forced into alliance with them. The state of people were stripping out assets; people want to be dealing with until he can bring them back. That is exactly what has happened as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. |
<poi> |
At the start of the war, he said he would take over Kyiv. |
</poi> |
Secondarily, that government did that, he wouldn’t be happy with some of it; he would only be happy to get the whole thing. The truth is that he is a rational person; he is a soldier. He makes battlefield adjustments in order to maximize strategic objectives. The consensus is, he can’t get everything now like he thought he could originally, but he can still defend what he has now, and this is the great part and this is the great part because only government can see if this impacts they can see you know, we may not be able to uh punch him back permanently before we reach a stale nature that is neutral and that's what the result of motion is that's really because he can defend the territory now, he views himself in that Defender role and will continue to do so to the death that is the point what responds to point information, he knows he can't get everything now but he will defend what he has and he is in that defensive position always moving forward he will not regret it, because he prioritizes the ability to retain those delies you otherwise not hold. So let's talk about sanctions, which should be somewhere here. I have no idea support, Putin regime should state, that these people of State capacity. note, it is now primarily devoted to the war effort for example police and military ass B supp Supply chains leading to military comp this means that that cannot be against the way CG says, secondly ownership of businesses been lost in many cases for reasons, one, sanctions, two, Russia in many instances, they can't deal that they broken their rations and they' a financial system they can no longer use the retribution, that massive retribution has been dealt with. this is the flip of their case, they people pissed off now but note, unless they can explain to you why not just being pissed off but having the capacity to use that pissing offness to do bad things, which is what it is so at the top it matters less if they lost their capacity to use they best reason to one the fear and secondly, reframing of the reason to support first point. secondly, because the blame has shifted from Putin to the west and in trench their West mentality. Which means they blame someone who get things done a lot less and are more likely to they are enemy this, necessity and that be more willing him to Noble off and assassinate the less confined oligarchs and therefore, that happens. all of this is you say, it leads us to A.1 efficacy because achieving nothing is still Victory but sailing to the win for Putin CL government is that Ukraine must be recognized unclear, why claim NATO is easier now actually harder because want to avoid escalation to a nuclear bomb news last week because that alone is a reason why they won't off they will continue fight by back door like they've been doing now. all of this is to state, we have a consensus in this debate that Putin as a result of this can defend territories that he currently controls which matter to him a lot as a result of the invasion of Ukraine this is unique imposing opposition and there is a reason why he is most in the debate that need on our side and therefore we win the debate. |
</mo> |
<gw> |
The first thing I want to deal with this explanation to gifts that basically these, all blow off everything because I think the reasons that christians are extremely dubious. the first thing they say is that these oligarchs have nothing because the ownership of these businesses has been lost. the reason that they give to this is sanctions, sanctions don't just even lead to your ownership of a business obviously sanctions can handle your capacity to the of money that these oligarchs had access to previously but it's still own the things have, it's not like the US government has capacity to take that like, businesses away from align the project. the second thing they then say is that these were used in the war, so these, as they not able to use these assets against Putin. we think it's true to some extent however, I think this is actually detrimental to these people sorry firstly it means a lot of the time these oligarchs get far angry about the fact oligarchs asked used for war which have to do with. but I think the the thing that opposition said about now like having deleted everybody who can possibly rise up against him, it's totally ludicrous because Aidan explains to you in his extension, you basically unable to, any interest have as these people, what if opposition vision of the world. Prove about these through oligarchs who the CO of every single Media company now and every single company that these oligarchs own and owns absolutely all the wealth that these have is like totally unfair how worldly bases of people that are Putin can support that he's unable to run everything these people own but secondly, all if Putin like do turn around and is like, I'm going to like, you know, take all your wealth now to be able to do this like it is pretty likely that all the oligarchs are not going to do things like produce propaganda for him or like provide him money and Loans to be able to fulfill his other foreign interested uh, like foreign interest in places like Africa. so I think it is like totally ridiculous for closing up for the opposition, that the are going to have like absolutely nothing. I think last, they say is that Putin used himself as a Defender, so this is going to be like his way of taking a stand against. firstly, I think like this like is very Oddity, greater ways like just wants to expand Russia's interest as a soldier of Russia but secondly, of all like, if you are Astin if you able to expand like, Russia's power abroad in the same way that like, we, he is able to as we' shown through aidan, because you do not have the money that these oligarchs being able to grow from you from the money that is now stuck in Banks because these oligarchs are far less likely to have produce propaganda for you, which is able to keep the pass the bay. it is far less likely that you are able to pursue Russian interests or construct a narrative of great Russian imperial power the way this all what what me to is that it is incredibly unclear how sanctions triple these oligarchs capacity, to such an extent that Putin is now able to take over everything. what is far more likely instead is that now these oligarchs do not have access to a lot of the assets that are able to help putin in pursuing his interest, in being able to build these narratives and actually like pursue foreign relations. Opening. |
<poi> |
to most likely going get that over therefore, the incentive of nationalist is a point, is more important this outweighs most of the closing gov. |
</poi> |
oh my God, like, do you not care that much about nationalism like these are people who have like or business the90s which have like ruined Russia like, i’m sorry, like, obviously they care about nationalism to some extent but also like these are people who own massive amounts of businesses they care explain to you, you really can't nationalistic projects on the same extent with your money in a that you can't really access, rebuttal to opening opposition, sorry against opening I think aniket like says some nice things about the fact that Putin is obviously going to be retaken by the fact like the and the but I think A's extension is more important in two ways. firstly, it explains specifically why the oligarchs have so much power over, why this is importantly the group that you need to care most about and like why this group by but secondly, all it explains why you not able to build comparative, in way comp by explaining that these oligarchs are the reason that putin is able to control the masses to such an extent because they have such control of the media company. secondly, this is how has been able to successfully explain imperative to do this the first thing they say is that people in Russia. |
First thing they say is that people in russia were criticizing him for being soft on us, I think being reality like able to take over country he Inc that he currently in oring which was brother I just don't think something that that the second thing they is that Ukraine something Happening wasn't prior people us and now supporting Ukraine and inating Europe other, very powerful issue, about I don't think that really and the last they say is that like, even if you say people anyway. I think that is why our is so important explain you not able to the propaganda to the same extent as opening opposition set that magally do explain to on support of power people around at the Ukraine of their increasing Ang and the second thing they say is that like the back out and people are going to people explain that is not going to ask. I am able to bring to of what you follow, what mechanisms, we already explained you. |
</gw> |
<ow> |
response to the push back to the government with. Explain how reception. All response to the sanctions and response to the government with. [inaudible] Push their away been away from them they're able to the they lose money fusing comparative point you have less. Second of all, being in the comparative end you are less able to do what you want to do. They have less power they are pushing it to the matric into the bad light. [inaudible] You want to is better able to deal with them if they try don't she can see said yeah when you take they can deal with you she lit that they have less power pushing their in the also the extent on the common to support fun on our side. I'm go through and explain that's such a thing. Important comparison in this debate the fourth thing is that if they literally consider that they assets can be be SE some power when they say they're going to get angry about it. No explanation what this angle will materialize to when the outcome of this angle actually like you cannot reverse. Sanctions right because you oh they are now angry. Let's reverse all our sanctions on them that's not what's going to happen with. Do anything about the is Beiz all we oppose have all the mental toward one people in to the lad techonology, gain power, gain resources. Everything about you be brought out power meaning ideology entering be engagement why the challenge about because when you have something, when you have people mentally ovary, this means more private military being formed up and less of them being Russia. Overall control spread of bad and blame you all the but 15 seconds I'll get why important what just who just say well where they just say like oh 40% rather than like 50% okay, right. Well not really a reason why ideology their own claim care about controlling the entire area. But second of all, we have a stronger incentive claim we explain engaging with govern while he never accept tradeoffs. You always be happy with the fact he has 40 or 50 percent into as well fin greater magnitude to the actor. What I mean by this we have more aim to this help control the ion we. Pro the power he would be able to get from the USA would not be as high Victory and he would have less power in the bright. The conjunction territory and power get territory. Okay moving on government the reason I want explain the defense of the police and military not necessarily pushed against it ideological consistency and the internal aims of this of the police and the military aligned with him. They older because they been more like old PL in the sun they know about these care about more pushing him over on these grounds second of all they out from perceptual inability so they wouldn't do it. They also knew that they would be economic, they would revert faction gain nothing from doing this who would be deposed from the head be deposed from of their Glory, right. They don't to control a group of military in the first because he would just buy them the first place. And they would get any whatsoever but also I just think there's no response by CL the government as why they can prove on their side to be less powerful. On the level we think we prove why they have more power if they if the war didn't happen and therefore if they can prove at any point from their mechanics. Monopoly violence like that have that on comparison as well so you could do anything on their side. More power as well therefore that why we're more open. I very simply one we positive in rather negative in they are control and Country for example the US and China. Pro act more but also why specifically everyone for a great. |
</ow> |
<pm> |
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