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4,300 | The Mirage of Triangular Arbitrage in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market | q-fin.ST | We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market
using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage
opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small
magnitudes. We find intra-day variations in the number and length of arbitrage
opportunities, with la... | finance |
4,301 | Preferred numbers and the distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes in the Chinese stock market | q-fin.ST | The distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes are investigated based on
the limit order book data of 22 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen
Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. We observe that the size distribution of
trades for individual stocks exhibits jumps, which is caused by the number
preference... | finance |
4,302 | On properties of Continuous-Time Random Walks with Non-Poissonian jump-times | q-fin.ST | The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) proceeds by
assuming that the present is one of the jumping times. Under this restrictive
assumption integral equations for the propagator and mean escape times have
been derived. We generalize these results to the case when the present is an
arbitrary tim... | finance |
4,303 | Probability of Large Movements in Financial Markets | q-fin.ST | Based on empirical financial time-series, we show that the "silence-breaking"
probability follows a super-universal power law: the probability of observing a
large movement is inversely proportional to the length of the on-going
low-variability period. Such a scaling law has been previously predicted
theoretically [R. ... | finance |
4,304 | A long-range memory stochastic model of the return in financial markets | q-fin.ST | We present a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) which mimics
the probability density function (PDF) of the return and the power spectrum of
the absolute return in financial markets. Absolute return as a measure of
market volatility is considered in the proposed model as a long-range memory
stochastic vari... | finance |
4,305 | Correction to "Leverage and volatility feedback effects in high-frequency data" [J. Financial Econometrics 4 (2006) 353--384] | q-fin.ST | Bollerslev et al. (2006) study the cross-covariances for squared returns
under the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model. In order to obtain these
cross-covariances the authors use an incorrect expression for the distribution
of the squared returns. Here we will obtain the correct distribution of the
squared return... | finance |
4,306 | Mechanical Model of Personal Income Distribution | q-fin.ST | A microeconomic model is developed, which accurately predicts the shape of
personal income distribution (PID) in the United States and the evolution of
the shape over time. The underlying concept is borrowed from geo-mechanics and
thus can be considered as mechanics of income distribution. The model allows
the resoluti... | finance |
4,307 | What is the best firm size to invest? | q-fin.ST | Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for
various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For
theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the
modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences
create a solid basis for... | finance |
4,308 | Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return | q-fin.ST | We investigate the two components of the total daily return (close-to-close),
the overnight return (close-to-open) and the daytime return (open-to-close), as
well as the corresponding volatilities of the 2215 NYSE stocks from 1988 to
2007. The tail distribution of the volatility, the long-term memory in the
sequence, a... | finance |
4,309 | Statistical thermodynamics of economic systems | q-fin.ST | We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary
probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical
physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of
microeconomic variables and their determination is reduced to the computation
of the partition... | finance |
4,310 | Long-term correlations and multifractal analysis of trading volumes for Chinese stocks | q-fin.ST | We investigate the temporal correlations and multifractal nature of trading
volume of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We
find that the trading volume exhibit size-dependent non-universal long memory
and multifractal nature. No crossover in the power-law dependence of the
detrended fluctu... | finance |
4,311 | Scaling and memory in the return intervals of realized volatility | q-fin.ST | We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}}
defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai
Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22 constituent stocks of SSEC. The
scaling behavior and memory effect of the return intervals between successive
realized vola... | finance |
4,312 | Colloquium: Statistical mechanics of money, wealth, and income | q-fin.ST | This Colloquium reviews statistical models for money, wealth, and income
distributions developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. By
analogy with the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics, it is shown
that the probability distribution of money is exponential for certain classes
of models... | finance |
4,313 | The effect of a market factor on information flow between stocks using minimal spanning tree | q-fin.ST | We empirically investigated the effects of market factors on the information
flow created from N(N-1)/2 linkage relationships among stocks. We also examined
the possibility of employing the minimal spanning tree (MST) method, which is
capable of reducing the number of links to N-1. We determined that market
factors car... | finance |
4,314 | On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses | q-fin.ST | This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC
stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their
stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact
that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have
examined both l... | finance |
4,315 | Stock market integration in the Latin American markets: further evidence from nonlinear modeling | q-fin.ST | This article studies the financial integration between the six main Latin
American markets and the US market in a nonlinear framework. Using the
threshold cointegration techniques of Hansen and Seo (2002), we show
significant threshold stock market linkages between Mexico, Chile and the US.
Thus, the dynamics of these ... | finance |
4,316 | Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market | q-fin.ST | We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market
viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of
FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We
group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study
each group separa... | finance |
4,317 | Temporal structure and gain/loss asymmetry for real and artificial stock indices | q-fin.ST | We demonstrate that the gain/loss asymmetry observed for stock indices
vanishes if the temporal dependence structure is destroyed by scrambling the
time series. We also show that an artificial index constructed by a simple
average of a number of individual stocks display gain/loss asymmetry - this
allows us to explicit... | finance |
4,318 | New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales | q-fin.ST | We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are
martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that
the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be
tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with
high frequency Markov ... | finance |
4,319 | World stock market: more sizeable trend reversal likely in February/March 2010 | q-fin.ST | Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such
elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling
factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the
2009 world stock market (here represented by the SP500, Hang Seng and WIG)
development. We id... | finance |
4,320 | Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles | q-fin.ST | By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii)
behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii)
the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions,
the log-periodic power law model has been developed as a flexible tool to
detect bubbl... | finance |
4,321 | Financial bubbles analysis with a cross-sectional estimator | q-fin.ST | We highlight a very simple statistical tool for the analysis of financial
bubbles, which has already been studied in [1]. We provide extensive empirical
tests of this statistical tool and investigate analytically its link with
stocks correlation structure. | finance |
4,322 | Universal and nonuniversal allometric scaling behaviors in the visibility graphs of world stock market indices | q-fin.ST | The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective
have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these
studies map the financial markets into one complex network. In this work, we
investigate 30 world stock market indices through their visibility graphs by
adopting the... | finance |
4,323 | Complex Systems: From Nuclear Physics to Financial Markets | q-fin.ST | We compare correlations and coherent structures in nuclei and financial
markets. In the nuclear physics part we review giant resonances which can be
interpreted as a coherent structure embedded in chaos. With similar methods we
investigate the financial empirical correlation matrix of the DAX and Dow
Jones. We will sho... | finance |
4,324 | The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations | q-fin.ST | On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the
Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich
(\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and
announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23
December 2009 in this ongoing experime... | finance |
4,325 | Sign and amplitude representation of the forex networks | q-fin.ST | We decompose the exchange rates returns of 41 currencies (incl. gold) into
their sign and amplitude components. Then we group together all exchange rates
with a common base currency, construct Minimal Spanning Trees for each group
independently, and analyze properties of these trees. We show that both the
sign and the ... | finance |
4,326 | Statistical Regularities of Equity Market Activity | q-fin.ST | Equity activity is an essential topic for financial market studies. To
explore its statistical regularities, we comprehensively examine the trading
value, a measure of the equity activity, of the 3314 most-traded stocks in the
U.S. equity market and find that (i) the trading values follow a log-normal
distribution; (ii... | finance |
4,327 | Gain/loss asymmetry in time series of individual stock prices and its relationship to the leverage effect | q-fin.ST | Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time
until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than
for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present
also for individual stocks and show that the phenomenon is closely linked to
the well-known ... | finance |
4,328 | Superfamily classification of nonstationary time series based on DFA scaling exponents | q-fin.ST | The superfamily phenomenon of time series with different dynamics can be
characterized by the motif rank patterns observed in the nearest-neighbor
networks of the time series in phase space. However, the determinants of
superfamily classification are unclear. We attack this problem by studying the
influence of linear t... | finance |
4,329 | Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in financial volatility | q-fin.ST | Many financial variables are found to exhibit multifractal nature, which is
usually attributed to the influence of temporal correlations and fat-tailedness
in the probability distribution (PDF). Based on the partition function approach
of multifractal analysis, we show that there is a marked finite-size effect in
the d... | finance |
4,330 | Universal patterns of inequality | q-fin.ST | Probability distributions of money, income, and energy consumption per capita
are studied for ensembles of economic agents. The principle of entropy
maximization for partitioning of a limited resource gives exponential
distributions for the investigated variables. A non-equilibrium difference of
money temperatures betw... | finance |
4,331 | Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets | q-fin.ST | Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric
Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain
the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market
crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets,
we present evide... | finance |
4,332 | Utilisation des méthodes de Lee-Carter et Log-Poisson pour l'ajustement de tables de mortalité dans le cas de petits échantillons | q-fin.ST | The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality
tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are
the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people
subjected to risk, particularly noticed for the persons who are getting on,
implies th... | finance |
4,333 | Analyzing the prices of the most expensive sheet iron all over the world: Modeling, prediction and regime change | q-fin.ST | The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of
"the most expensive sheet iron all over the world", more expensive than gold. A
citizen has to bid in an monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his new
private car. We perform statistical analysis to investigate the influence of
the mini... | finance |
4,334 | Cross-Correlation Dynamics in Financial Time Series | q-fin.ST | The dynamics of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix of multivariate
financial time series is explored by examination of the eigenvalue spectrum
over sliding time windows. Empirical results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones
Euro Stoxx 50 indices reveal that the dynamics of the small eigenvalues of the
cross-correlat... | finance |
4,335 | A Random Matrix Approach to VARMA Processes | q-fin.ST | We apply random matrix theory to derive spectral density of large sample
covariance matrices generated by multivariate VMA(q), VAR(q) and VARMA(q1,q2)
processes. In particular, we consider a limit where the number of random
variables N and the number of consecutive time measurements T are large but the
ratio N/T is fix... | finance |
4,336 | Testing for financial crashes using the Log Periodic Power Law mode | q-fin.ST | A number of papers claim that a Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) fitted to
financial market bubbles that precede large market falls or 'crashes', contain
parameters that are confined within certain ranges. The mechanism that has been
claimed as underlying the LPPL, is based on influence percolation and a
martingale condit... | finance |
4,337 | Complex stock trading network among investors | q-fin.ST | We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical
properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of
a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock
Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book,
we can extra... | finance |
4,338 | Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts | q-fin.ST | Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled
by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and
Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an
equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series.
Econometrically, t... | finance |
4,339 | Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Return matching to the data of New York and Vilnius Stock Exchanges | q-fin.ST | We scale and analyze the empirical data of return from New York and Vilnius
stock exchanges matching it to the same nonlinear double stochastic model of
return in financial market. | finance |
4,340 | Nonuniversal distributions of stock returns in an emerging market | q-fin.ST | There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of
stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive
and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the
possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets
in the sense that th... | finance |
4,341 | S&P 500 returns revisited | q-fin.ST | The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the
underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described
by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the
population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are
well predi... | finance |
4,342 | Universality in DAX index returns fluctuations | q-fin.ST | In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of
the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive
and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the
alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative
returns (-... | finance |
4,343 | Universal Fluctuations of the FTSE100 | q-fin.ST | We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions
F{FTSE100,+} and F{FTSE100,-} of the normalized positive and negative FTSE100
(UK) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled
FTSE100 daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns
(-r(t))^alpha that we call, aft... | finance |
4,344 | Universal Fluctuations of AEX index | q-fin.ST | We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{AEX,+}
and F{AEX,-} of the normalized positive and negative AEX (Netherlands) index
daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the \alpha re-scaled AEX daily index
positive returns r(t)^\alpha and negative returns (-r(t))^\alpha that we call,
after n... | finance |
4,345 | Memory effect and multifractality of cross-correlations in financial markets | q-fin.ST | An average instantaneous cross-correlation function is introduced to quantify
the interaction of the financial market of a specific time. Based on the daily
data of the American and Chinese stock markets, memory effect of the average
instantaneous cross-correlations is investigated over different price return
time inte... | finance |
4,346 | The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations Volume II-Master Document | q-fin.ST | This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we
provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify
7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present
windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide
that documen... | finance |
4,347 | Statistical mechanics approach to the probability distribution of money | q-fin.ST | This Chapter reviews statistical models for the probability distribution of
money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these
models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between
the agents in payment for goods and services. Starting from the initially equal
distrib... | finance |
4,348 | Volatilities That Change with Time: The Temporal Behavior of the Distribution of Stock-Market Prices | q-fin.ST | While the use of volatilities is pervasive throughout finance, our ability to
determine the instantaneous volatility of stocks is nascent. Here, we present a
method for measuring the temporal behavior of stocks, and show that stock
prices for 24 DJIA stocks follow a stochastic process that describes an
efficiently pric... | finance |
4,349 | Optimization of Financial Instrument Parcels in Stochastic Wavelet Model | q-fin.ST | To define oscillatory movements of securities market, we put in the non-local
extension of Ito- equation for wavelet-images of random processes. It is
proposed an algorithm of creation of evolutionary equation and a model of
prediction of the most probable price movement path. It is carried out
experimental validation ... | finance |
4,350 | Long-term correlations and multifractal nature in the intertrade durations of a liquid Chinese stock and its warrant | q-fin.ST | Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure
characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time
between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a
liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative
investigation of the sta... | finance |
4,351 | Statistical mechanics of money, debt, and energy consumption | q-fin.ST | We briefly review statistical models for the probability distribution of
money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these
models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between
the agents in payment for goods and services. We focus on conceptual
foundations for this ... | finance |
4,352 | Maximum penalized quasi-likelihood estimation of the diffusion function | q-fin.ST | We develop a maximum penalized quasi-likelihood estimator for estimating in a
nonparametric way the diffusion function of a diffusion process, as an
alternative to more traditional kernel-based estimators. After developing a
numerical scheme for computing the maximizer of the penalized maximum
quasi-likelihood function... | finance |
4,353 | The joint distribution of stock returns is not elliptical | q-fin.ST | Using a large set of daily US and Japanese stock returns, we test in detail
the relevance of Student models, and of more general elliptical models, for
describing the joint distribution of returns. We find that while Student
copulas provide a good approximation for strongly correlated pairs of stocks,
systematic discre... | finance |
4,354 | Tick size and price diffusion | q-fin.ST | A tick size is the smallest increment of a security price. It is clear that
at the shortest time scale on which individual orders are placed the tick size
has a major role which affects where limit orders can be placed, the bid-ask
spread, etc. This is the realm of market microstructure and there is a vast
literature o... | finance |
4,355 | Individual and collective stock dynamics: intra-day seasonalities | q-fin.ST | We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day
seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the
volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases
throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks.
Somewhat paradoxically, t... | finance |
4,356 | Financial LPPL Bubbles with Mean-Reverting Noise in the Frequency Domain | q-fin.ST | The log-periodic power law (LPPL) is a model of asset prices during
endogenous bubbles. A major open issue is to verify the presence of LPPL in
price sequences and to estimate the LPPL parameters. Estimation is complicated
by the fact that daily LPPL returns are typically orders of magnitude smaller
than measured price... | finance |
4,357 | Statistical Properties of Cross-Correlation in the Korean Stock Market | q-fin.ST | We investigate the statistical properties of the correlation matrix between
individual stocks traded in the Korean stock market using the random matrix
theory (RMT) and observe how these affect the portfolio weights in the
Markowitz portfolio theory. We find that the distribution of the correlation
matrix is positively... | finance |
4,358 | Market panic on different time-scales | q-fin.ST | Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily
time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of
stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of
dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases
in times of ... | finance |
4,359 | Statistical properties of derivatives: a journey in term structures | q-fin.ST | This article presents an empirical study of thirteen derivative markets for
commodity and financial assets. It compares the statistical properties of
futures contracts's daily returns at different maturities, from 1998 to 2010
and for delivery dates up to 120 months. The analysis of the fourth first
moments of the dist... | finance |
4,360 | The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations, Volume III | q-fin.ST | This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we
provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify
27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present
windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide
that docum... | finance |
4,361 | Principal Regression Analysis and the index leverage effect | q-fin.ST | We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a
volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a
matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA)
and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and
numerical benchmarks.... | finance |
4,362 | Minimal model of financial stylized facts | q-fin.ST | In this work we afford the statistical characterization of a linear
Stochastic Volatility Model featuring Inverse Gamma stationary distribution for
the instantaneous volatility. We detail the derivation of the moments of the
return distribution, revealing the role of the Inverse Gamma law in the
emergence of fat tails,... | finance |
4,363 | Testing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on the Uganda Stock Exchange | q-fin.ST | This paper examines the validity of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on
the Ugandan stock market using monthly stock returns from 10 of the 11
companies listed on the Uganda Stock Exchange (USE), for the period 1st March
2007 to 10th November 2009. Due to the absence of readily available Uganda
Stock Exchange(USE... | finance |
4,364 | Globalization and long-run co-movements in the stock market for the G7: an application of VECM under structural breaks | q-fin.ST | This paper analyzes the process of long-run co-movements and stock market
globalization on the basis of cointegration tests and vector error correction
(VEC) models. The cointegration tests used here allow for structural breaks to
be explicitly modeled and breakpoints to be computed on a relative-time basis.
The data u... | finance |
4,365 | A Copula Approach on the Dynamics of Statistical Dependencies in the US Stock Market | q-fin.ST | We analyze the statistical dependency structure of the S&P 500 constituents
in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York
Stock Exchange's TAQ database. With a copula-based approach, we find that the
statistical dependencies are very strong in the tails of the marginal
distributions. This... | finance |
4,366 | Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis | q-fin.ST | Using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of correlations matrices of some of
the main financial market indices in the world, we show that high volatility of
markets is directly linked with strong correlations between them. This means
that markets tend to behave as one during great crashes. In order to do so, we
investiga... | finance |
4,367 | The fine structure of spectral properties for random correlation matrices: an application to financial markets | q-fin.ST | We study some properties of eigenvalue spectra of financial correlation
matrices. In particular, we investigate the nature of the large eigenvalue
bulks which are observed empirically, and which have often been regarded as a
consequence of the supposedly large amount of noise contained in financial
data. We challenge t... | finance |
4,368 | Modeling Long Memory in REITs | q-fin.ST | One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process
is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures,
observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings
for a non- REIT equity index. The paper utilizes a variety of tests for long
memory f... | finance |
4,369 | Uncovering Volatility Dynamics in Daily REIT Returns | q-fin.ST | Using a time-varying approach, this paper examines the dynamics of volatility
in the REIT sector. The results highlight the attractiveness and suitability of
using GARCH based approaches in the modeling of daily REIT volatility. The
paper examines the influencing factors on REIT volatility, documenting the
return and v... | finance |
4,370 | Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures | q-fin.ST | Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management
practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the
modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk
measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK
futures. Volatility ... | finance |
4,371 | U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis | q-fin.ST | This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core
inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to
this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based
measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting
future inflation.... | finance |
4,372 | Multivariate Modeling of Daily REIT Volatility | q-fin.ST | This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based
model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility
linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US
equity series. The motivation is for investors to incorporate time-varyng
volatility and ... | finance |
4,373 | The tail risks of FX return distributions: a comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders | q-fin.ST | This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders
using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using
the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions
rather than the more common analysis of indicative quotes. In general, limit
and market o... | finance |
4,374 | Absolute Return Volatility | q-fin.ST | The use of absolute return volatility has many modelling benefits says John
Cotter. An illustration is given for the market risk measure, minimum capital
requirements. | finance |
4,375 | The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns | q-fin.ST | The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and
practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical
results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between
increments. Furthermore, the convergence to the limit distributions can be
slow, requiring a huge am... | finance |
4,376 | Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory | q-fin.ST | We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The
proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity
observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's
agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range
memory in financia... | finance |
4,377 | The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series | q-fin.ST | This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was
published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of
the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis
suggests the possibility of one more substantial fluctuation before the final
collapse in July 201... | finance |
4,378 | A Map of the Brazilian Stock Market | q-fin.ST | We use the correlation matrix of stocks returns in order to create maps of
the S\~ao Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), Brazil's main stock exchange.
The data reffer to the year 2010, and the correlations between stock returns
lead to the construction of a minimum spanning tree and of asset graphs with a
variety of t... | finance |
4,379 | Statistical Methods for Estimating the non-random Content of Financial Markets | q-fin.ST | For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with
erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At
first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random
walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis.
However, we s... | finance |
4,380 | About the non-random Content of Financial Markets | q-fin.ST | For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with
erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At
first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random
walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis.
However, we s... | finance |
4,381 | Intermittency in Quantitative Finance | q-fin.ST | Factorial moments are convenient tools in nuclear physics to characterize the
multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution ($\Delta$) becomes
small. For uncorrelated particle production within $\Delta$, Gaussian
statistics holds and factorial moments $F_q$ are equal to unity for all orders
$q$. Correlations b... | finance |
4,382 | Factorial Moments in Complex Systems | q-fin.ST | Factorial moments are convenient tools in particle physics to characterize
the multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution ($\Delta$) becomes
small. They include all correlations within the system of particles and
represent integral characteristics of any correlation between these particles.
In this letter, ... | finance |
4,383 | Dynamical Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series | q-fin.ST | We investigate the use of the Hurst exponent, dynamically computed over a
moving time-window, to evaluate the level of stability/instability of financial
firms. Financial firms bailed-out as a consequence of the 2007-2010 credit
crisis show a neat increase with time of the generalized Hurst exponent in the
period prece... | finance |
4,384 | Pruning a Minimum Spanning Tree | q-fin.ST | This work employs some techniques in order to filter random noise from the
information provided by minimum spanning trees obtained from the correlation
matrices of international stock market indices prior to and during times of
crisis. The first technique establishes a threshold above which connections are
considered a... | finance |
4,385 | Analysis of the trends in the index of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) | q-fin.ST | It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two
components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be
treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is
a geometric line. Thus, the random component fluctuates around the non random
component ... | finance |
4,386 | Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of rational and noise traders | q-fin.ST | We introduce a model of super-exponential financial bubbles with two assets
(risky and risk-free), in which rational investors and noise traders co-exist.
Rational investors form expectations on the return and risk of a risky asset
and maximize their constant relative risk aversion expected utility with
respect to thei... | finance |
4,387 | Returns in futures markets and $ν=3$ t-distribution | q-fin.ST | The probability distribution of log-returns of financial time series, sampled
at high frequency, is the basis for any further developments in quantitative
finance. In this letter, we present experimental results based on a large set
of time series on futures. Then, we show that the t-distribution with $\nu
\simeq 3$ gi... | finance |
4,388 | Time Scales in Futures Markets and Applications | q-fin.ST | The probability distribution of log-returns for financial time series,
sampled at high frequency, is the basis for any further developments in
quantitative finance. In this letter, we present experimental results based on
a large set of time series on futures. We show that the t-distribution with
$\nu \simeq 3$ gives a... | finance |
4,389 | Collective behavior of stock prices as a precursor to market crash | q-fin.ST | We study precursors to the global market crash that occurred on all main
stock exchanges throughout the world in October 2008 about three weeks after
the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on 15 September. We examine the
collective behavior of stock returns and analyze the market mode, which is a
market-wide c... | finance |
4,390 | Cluster formation and evolution in networks of financial market indices | q-fin.ST | Using data from world stock exchange indices prior to and during periods of
global financial crises, clusters and networks of indices are built for
different thresholds and diverse periods of time, so that it is then possible
to analyze how clusters are formed according to correlations among indices and
how they evolve... | finance |
4,391 | Non-Gaussianity of the Intraday Returns Distribution: its evolution in time | q-fin.ST | We find a remarkable time persistence of various proxies for the kurtosis
(p-kurtosis) of the intraday returns distribution for the S&P500 index and this
permits a significant measure of their evolution from 1983 to 2004. There
appears a long time scale dramatic variation of the p-kurtosis uncorrelated
with the variati... | finance |
4,392 | The topology of cross-border exposures: beyond the minimal spanning tree approach | q-fin.ST | The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial
systems as networks of interdependent countries, where cross-border financial
linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the
relevance of these networks relies on the representation of changes follow-on
the occurrence of... | finance |
4,393 | Random matrix approach to the dynamics of stock inventory variations | q-fin.ST | We study the cross-correlation matrix $C_{ij}$ of inventory variations of the
most active individual and institutional investors in an emerging market to
understand the dynamics of inventory variations. We find that the distribution
of cross-correlation coefficient $C_{ij}$ has a power-law form in the bulk
followed by ... | finance |
4,394 | Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets | q-fin.ST | In this paper, we use the generalized Hurst exponent approach to study the
multi- scaling behavior of different financial time series. We show that this
approach is robust and powerful in detecting different types of multiscaling.
We observe a puzzling phenomenon where an apparent increase in multifractality
is measure... | finance |
4,395 | The class of nonlinear stochastic models as a background for the bursty behavior in financial markets | q-fin.ST | We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals,
when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have
proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into
Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time statistics. Using
these results w... | finance |
4,396 | Survivability and centrality measures for networks of financial market indices | q-fin.ST | Using data from 92 indices of stock exchanges worldwide, I analize the
cluster formation and evolution from 2007 to 2010, which includes the Subprime
Mortgage Crisis of 2008, using asset graphs based on distance thresholds. I
also study the survivability of connections and of clusters through time and
the influence of ... | finance |
4,397 | Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis | q-fin.ST | In this paper, we contribute to the literature on energy market co-movement
by studying its dynamics in the time-frequency domain. The novelty of our
approach lies in the application of wavelet tools to commodity market data. A
major part of economic time series analysis is done in the time or frequency
domain separate... | finance |
4,398 | On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions | q-fin.ST | In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent
methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive
Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S),
multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average
(DMA) and genera... | finance |
4,399 | Asymmetric correlation matrices: an analysis of financial data | q-fin.ST | We analyze the spectral properties of correlation matrices between distinct
statistical systems. Such matrices are intrinsically non symmetric, and lend
themselves to extend the spectral analyses usually performed on standard
Pearson correlation matrices to the realm of complex eigenvalues. We employ
some recent random... | finance |
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