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4,500 | Fixed Effect Estimation of Large T Panel Data Models | econ.EM | This article reviews recent advances in fixed effect estimation of panel data
models for long panels, where the number of time periods is relatively large.
We focus on semiparametric models with unobserved individual and time effects,
where the distribution of the outcome variable conditional on covariates and
unobserv... | economics |
4,501 | Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions | econ.EM | This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional
transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the
instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and
control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the
comparability o... | economics |
4,502 | Inference on Estimators defined by Mathematical Programming | econ.EM | We propose an inference procedure for estimators defined by mathematical
programming problems, focusing on the important special cases of linear
programming (LP) and quadratic programming (QP). In these settings, the
coefficients in both the objective function and the constraints of the
mathematical programming problem... | economics |
4,503 | Sharp bounds and testability of a Roy model of STEM major choices | econ.EM | We analyze the empirical content of the Roy model, stripped down to its
essential features, namely sector specific unobserved heterogeneity and
self-selection on the basis of potential outcomes. We characterize sharp bounds
on the joint distribution of potential outcomes and testable implications of
the Roy self-select... | economics |
4,504 | Zero-rating of Content and its Effect on the Quality of Service in the Internet | econ.EM | The ongoing net neutrality debate has generated a lot of heated discussions
on whether or not monetary interactions should be regulated between content and
access providers. Among the several topics discussed, `differential pricing'
has recently received attention due to `zero-rating' platforms proposed by some
service... | economics |
4,505 | Quasi-random Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis | econ.EM | The uncertainty and robustness of Computable General Equilibrium models can
be assessed by conducting a Systematic Sensitivity Analysis. Different methods
have been used in the literature for SSA of CGE models such as Gaussian
Quadrature and Monte Carlo methods. This paper explores the use of Quasi-random
Monte Carlo m... | economics |
4,506 | Estimation of Peer Effects in Endogenous Social Networks: Control Function Approach | econ.EM | We propose a method of estimating the linear-in-means model of peer effects
in which the peer group, defined by a social network, is endogenous in the
outcome equation for peer effects. Endogeneity is due to unobservable
individual characteristics that influence both link formation in the network
and the outcome of int... | economics |
4,507 | Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models | econ.EM | This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time
series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point
predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous
coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula
utilizes cross-sectio... | economics |
4,508 | Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions | econ.EM | There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector
autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a
subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock
(sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct
pointwise coverage bands for imp... | economics |
4,509 | Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programmes: A Machine Learning Approach | econ.EM | We systematically investigate the effect heterogeneity of job search
programmes for unemployed workers. To investigate possibly heterogeneous
employment effects, we combine non-experimental causal empirical models with
Lasso-type estimators. The empirical analyses are based on rich administrative
data from Swiss social... | economics |
4,510 | A Note on the Multi-Agent Contracts in Continuous Time | econ.EM | Dynamic contracts with multiple agents is a classical decentralized
decision-making problem with asymmetric information. In this paper, we extend
the single-agent dynamic incentive contract model in continuous-time to a
multi-agent scheme in finite horizon and allow the terminal reward to be
dependent on the history of... | economics |
4,511 | Rate-Optimal Estimation of the Intercept in a Semiparametric Sample-Selection Model | econ.EM | This paper presents a new estimator of the intercept of a linear regression
model in cases where the outcome varaible is observed subject to a selection
rule. The intercept is often in this context of inherent interest; for example,
in a program evaluation context, the difference between the intercepts in
outcome equat... | economics |
4,512 | A Note on Gale, Kuhn, and Tucker's Reductions of Zero-Sum Games | econ.EM | Gale, Kuhn and Tucker (1950) introduced two ways to reduce a zero-sum game by
packaging some strategies with respect to a probability distribution on them.
In terms of value, they gave conditions for a desirable reduction. We show that
a probability distribution for a desirable reduction relies on optimal
strategies in... | economics |
4,513 | Propensity score matching for multiple treatment levels: A CODA-based contribution | econ.EM | This study proposes a simple technique for propensity score matching for
multiple treatment levels under the strong unconfoundedness assumption with the
help of the Aitchison distance proposed in the field of compositional data
analysis (CODA). | economics |
4,514 | Nonparametric Identification in Index Models of Link Formation | econ.EM | We consider an index model of dyadic link formation with a homophily effect
index and a degree heterogeneity index. We provide nonparametric identification
results in a single large network setting for the potentially nonparametric
homophily effect function, the realizations of unobserved individual fixed
effects and t... | economics |
4,515 | Startups and Stanford University | econ.EM | Startups have become in less than 50 years a major component of innovation
and economic growth. Silicon Valley has been the place where the startup
phenomenon was the most obvious and Stanford University was a major component
of that success. Companies such as Google, Yahoo, Sun Microsystems, Cisco,
Hewlett Packard had... | economics |
4,516 | Equity in Startups | econ.EM | Startups have become in less than 50 years a major component of innovation
and economic growth. An important feature of the startup phenomenon has been
the wealth created through equity in startups to all stakeholders. These
include the startup founders, the investors, and also the employees through the
stock-option me... | economics |
4,517 | Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start | econ.EM | I develop tools to learn about the average effects of providing an offer to
participate in a program given data from an experiment that randomizes offers.
I allow for the complication that individuals may not comply with their
assigned status in the sense that those who are not provided an offer may
receive one from ou... | economics |
4,518 | Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized Experiments | econ.EM | I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in
experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of
other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form
linear-in-means regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with
some negative weigh... | economics |
4,519 | Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets | econ.EM | Futures market contracts with varying maturities are traded concurrently and
the speed at which they process information is of value in understanding the
pricing discovery process. Using price discovery measures, including Putnins
(2013) information leadership share and intraday data, we quantify the
proportional contr... | economics |
4,520 | Economic Complexity Unfolded: Interpretable Model for the Productive Structure of Economies | econ.EM | Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the
productive structure of an economy. It resides on the premise of hidden
capabilities - fundamental endowments underlying the productive structure. In
general, measuring the capabilities behind economic complexity directly is
difficult, and ind... | economics |
4,521 | The Research on the Stagnant Development of Shantou Special Economic Zone Under Reform and Opening-Up Policy | econ.EM | This study briefly introduces the development of Shantou Special Economic
Zone under Reform and Opening-Up Policy from 1980 through 2016 with a focus on
policy making issues and its influences on local economy. This paper is divided
into two parts, 1980 to 1991, 1992 to 2016 in accordance with the separation of
the ori... | economics |
4,522 | Constructive Identification of Heterogeneous Elasticities in the Cobb-Douglas Production Function | econ.EM | This paper presents the identification of heterogeneous elasticities in the
Cobb-Douglas production function. The identification is constructive with
closed-form formulas for the elasticity with respect to each input for each
firm. We propose that the flexible input cost ratio plays the role of a control
function under... | economics |
4,523 | Identification of and correction for publication bias | econ.EM | Some empirical results are more likely to be published than others. Such
selective publication leads to biased estimates and distorted inference. This
paper proposes two approaches for identifying the conditional probability of
publication as a function of a study's results, the first based on systematic
replication st... | economics |
4,524 | The Effect of Partisanship and Political Advertising on Close Family Ties | econ.EM | Research on growing American political polarization and antipathy primarily
studies public institutions and political processes, ignoring private effects
including strained family ties. Using anonymized smartphone-location data and
precinct-level voting, we show that Thanksgiving dinners attended by
opposing-party prec... | economics |
4,525 | Aggregating Google Trends: Multivariate Testing and Analysis | econ.EM | Web search data are a valuable source of business and economic information.
Previous studies have utilized Google Trends web search data for economic
forecasting. We expand this work by providing algorithms to combine and
aggregate search volume data, so that the resulting data is both consistent
over time and consiste... | economics |
4,526 | Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to Misspecification | econ.EM | We propose a new inferential methodology for dynamic economies that is robust
to misspecification of the mechanism generating frictions. Economies with
frictions are treated as perturbations of a frictionless economy that are
consistent with a variety of mechanisms. We derive a representation for the law
of motion for ... | economics |
4,527 | Cointegration in functional autoregressive processes | econ.EM | This paper defines the class of $\mathcal{H}$-valued autoregressive (AR)
processes with a unit root of finite type, where $\mathcal{H}$ is an infinite
dimensional separable Hilbert space, and derives a generalization of the
Granger-Johansen Representation Theorem valid for any integration order
$d=1,2,\dots$. An existe... | economics |
4,528 | Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for High-dimensional Linear Models with Many Endogenous Variables | econ.EM | High-dimensional linear models with endogenous variables play an increasingly
important role in recent econometric literature. In this work we allow for
models with many endogenous variables and many instrument variables to achieve
identification. Because of the high-dimensionality in the second stage,
constructing hon... | economics |
4,529 | Resource Abundance and Life Expectancy | econ.EM | This paper investigates the impacts of major natural resource discoveries
since 1960 on life expectancy in the nations that they were resource poor prior
to the discoveries. Previous literature explains the relation between nations
wealth and life expectancy, but it has been silent about the impacts of
resource discove... | economics |
4,530 | Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area | econ.EM | In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor
stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty
shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a
latent quantity during estimation. Only a limited number of contributions to
the lit... | economics |
4,531 | A Method for Winning at Lotteries | econ.EM | We report a new result on lotteries --- that a well-funded syndicate has a
purely mechanical strategy to achieve expected returns of 10\% to 25\% in an
equiprobable lottery with no take and no carryover pool. We prove that an
optimal strategy (Nash equilibrium) in a game between the syndicate and other
players consists... | economics |
4,532 | Does it Pay to Buy the Pot in the Canadian 6/49 Lotto? Implications for Lottery Design | econ.EM | Despite its unusual payout structure, the Canadian 6/49 Lotto is one of the
few government sponsored lotteries that has the potential for a favorable
strategy we call "buying the pot." By buying the pot we mean that a syndicate
buys each ticket in the lottery, ensuring that it holds a jackpot winner. We
assume that the... | economics |
4,533 | Solving Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Integrated or Expected Value Function? | econ.EM | Dynamic Discrete Choice Models (DDCMs) are important in the structural
estimation literature. Since the structural errors are practically always
continuous and unbounded in nature, researchers often use the expected value
function. The idea to solve for the expected value function made solution more
practical and estim... | economics |
4,534 | Heterogeneous structural breaks in panel data models | econ.EM | This paper develops a new model and estimation procedure for panel data that
allows us to identify heterogeneous structural breaks. We model individual
heterogeneity using a grouped pattern. For each group, we allow common
structural breaks in the coefficients. However, the number, timing, and size of
these breaks can ... | economics |
4,535 | Characterizing Assumption of Rationality by Incomplete Information | econ.EM | We characterize common assumption of rationality of 2-person games within an
incomplete information framework. We use the lexicographic model with
incomplete information and show that a belief hierarchy expresses common
assumption of rationality within a complete information framework if and only
if there is a belief h... | economics |
4,536 | Quantifying Health Shocks Over the Life Cycle | econ.EM | We first show (1) the importance of investigating health expenditure process
using the order two Markov chain model, rather than the standard order one
model, which is widely used in the literature. Markov chain of order two is the
minimal framework that is capable of distinguishing those who experience a
certain healt... | economics |
4,537 | Ordered Kripke Model, Permissibility, and Convergence of Probabilistic Kripke Model | econ.EM | We define a modification of the standard Kripke model, called the ordered
Kripke model, by introducing a linear order on the set of accessible states of
each state. We first show this model can be used to describe the lexicographic
belief hierarchy in epistemic game theory, and perfect rationalizability can be
characte... | economics |
4,538 | How Can We Induce More Women to Competitions? | econ.EM | Why women avoid participating in a competition and how can we encourage them
to participate in it? In this paper, we investigate how social image concerns
affect women's decision to compete. We first construct a theoretical model and
show that participating in a competition, even under affirmative action
policies favor... | economics |
4,539 | Hyper-rational choice theory | econ.EM | The rational choice theory is based on this idea that people rationally
pursue goals for increasing their personal interests. In most conditions, the
behavior of an actor is not independent of the person and others' behavior.
Here, we present a new concept of rational choice as a hyper-rational choice
which in this con... | economics |
4,540 | Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A MIDAS-SVAR model of US capital flows | econ.EM | We develop a new VAR model for structural analysis with mixed-frequency data.
The MIDAS-SVAR model allows to identify structural dynamic links exploiting the
information contained in variables sampled at different frequencies. It also
provides a general framework to test homogeneous frequency-based
representations vers... | economics |
4,541 | An Experimental Investigation of Preference Misrepresentation in the Residency Match | econ.EM | The development and deployment of matching procedures that incentivize
truthful preference reporting is considered one of the major successes of
market design research. In this study, we test the degree to which these
procedures succeed in eliminating preference misrepresentation. We administered
an online experiment t... | economics |
4,542 | Prediction of Shared Bicycle Demand with Wavelet Thresholding | econ.EM | Consumers are creatures of habit, often periodic, tied to work, shopping and
other schedules. We analyzed one month of data from the world's largest
bike-sharing company to elicit demand behavioral cycles, initially using models
from animal tracking that showed large customers fit an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
model with deman... | economics |
4,543 | A General Method for Demand Inversion | econ.EM | This paper describes a numerical method to solve for mean product qualities
which equates the real market share to the market share predicted by a discrete
choice model. The method covers a general class of discrete choice model,
including the pure characteristics model in Berry and Pakes(2007) and the
random coefficie... | economics |
4,544 | Knowledge and Unanimous Acceptance of Core Payoffs: An Epistemic Foundation for Cooperative Game Theory | econ.EM | We provide an epistemic foundation for cooperative games by proof theory via
studying the knowledge for players unanimously accepting only core payoffs. We
first transform each cooperative game into a decision problem where a player
can accept or reject any payoff vector offered to her based on her knowledge
about avai... | economics |
4,545 | The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions | econ.EM | In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of
housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by
analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a
factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Bayesian model estimation
is based on Gibbs samp... | economics |
4,546 | On the iterated estimation of dynamic discrete choice games | econ.EM | We study the asymptotic properties of a class of estimators of the structural
parameters in dynamic discrete choice games. We consider K-stage policy
iteration (PI) estimators, where K denotes the number of policy iterations
employed in the estimation. This class nests several estimators proposed in the
literature such... | economics |
4,547 | Kernel Estimation for Panel Data with Heterogeneous Dynamics | econ.EM | This paper proposes nonparametric kernel-smoothing estimation for panel data
to examine the degree of heterogeneity across cross-sectional units. We first
estimate the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations for each unit
and then apply kernel smoothing to compute their density functions. The
dependence of t... | economics |
4,548 | Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in situations resembling the Monty Hall problem | econ.EM | People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such
as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical
significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a
departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a
"cognitively biased" o... | economics |
4,549 | On the solution of the variational optimisation in the rational inattention framework | econ.EM | I analyse the solution method for the variational optimisation problem in the
rational inattention framework proposed by Christopher A. Sims. The solution,
in general, does not exist, although it may exist in exceptional cases. I show
that the solution does not exist for the quadratic and the logarithmic
objective func... | economics |
4,550 | Synthetic Control Methods and Big Data | econ.EM | Many macroeconomic policy questions may be assessed in a case study
framework, where the time series of a treated unit is compared to a
counterfactual constructed from a large pool of control units. I provide a
general framework for this setting, tailored to predict the counterfactual by
minimizing a tradeoff between u... | economics |
4,551 | An Note on Why Geographically Weighted Regression Overcomes Multidimensional-Kernel-Based Varying-Coefficient Model | econ.EM | It is widely known that geographically weighted regression(GWR) is
essentially same as varying-coefficient model. In the former research about
varying-coefficient model, scholars tend to use multidimensional-kernel-based
locally weighted estimation(MLWE) so that information of both distance and
direction is considered.... | economics |
4,552 | Pricing Mechanism in Information Goods | econ.EM | We study three pricing mechanisms' performance and their effects on the
participants in the data industry from the data supply chain perspective. A
win-win pricing strategy for the players in the data supply chain is proposed.
We obtain analytical solutions in each pricing mechanism, including the
decentralized and cen... | economics |
4,553 | A Nonparametric Approach to Measure the Heterogeneous Spatial Association: Under Spatial Temporal Data | econ.EM | Spatial association and heterogeneity are two critical areas in the research
about spatial analysis, geography, statistics and so on. Though large amounts
of outstanding methods has been proposed and studied, there are few of them
tend to study spatial association under heterogeneous environment.
Additionally, most of ... | economics |
4,554 | A study of strategy to the remove and ease TBT for increasing export in GCC6 countries | econ.EM | The last technical barriers to trade(TBT) between countries are Non-Tariff
Barriers(NTBs), meaning all trade barriers are possible other than Tariff
Barriers. And the most typical examples are (TBT), which refer to measure
Technical Regulation, Standards, Procedure for Conformity Assessment, Test &
Certification etc. T... | economics |
4,555 | How Smart Are `Water Smart Landscapes'? | econ.EM | Understanding the effectiveness of alternative approaches to water
conservation is crucially important for ensuring the security and reliability
of water services for urban residents. We analyze data from one of the
longest-running "cash for grass" policies - the Southern Nevada Water
Authority's Water Smart Landscapes... | economics |
4,556 | Business Cycles in Economics | econ.EM | The business cycles are generated by the oscillating macro-/micro-/nano-
economic output variables in the economy of the scale and the scope in the
amplitude/frequency/phase/time domains in the economics. The accurate forward
looking assumptions on the business cycles oscillation dynamics can optimize
the financial cap... | economics |
4,557 | Testing for Unobserved Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Observational Data | econ.EM | Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent
policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper
proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in
a treatment effect model with a binary treatment assignment, allowing for
individu... | economics |
4,558 | Testing Continuity of a Density via g-order statistics in the Regression Discontinuity Design | econ.EM | In the regression discontinuity design (RDD), it is common practice to assess
the credibility of the design by testing the continuity of the density of the
running variable at the cut-off, e.g., McCrary (2008). In this paper we propose
an approximate sign test for continuity of a density at a point based on the
so-call... | economics |
4,559 | Causal Inference for Survival Analysis | econ.EM | In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival
function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual
units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for
this purpose. A real world healthcare dataset was used with about 1800 patients
with bre... | economics |
4,560 | Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects | econ.EM | Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to
estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the
average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may
be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may
for instan... | economics |
4,561 | How does monetary policy affect income inequality in Japan? Evidence from grouped data | econ.EM | We examine the effects of monetary policy on income inequality in Japan using
a novel econometric approach that jointly estimates the Gini coefficient based
on micro-level grouped data of households and the dynamics of macroeconomic
quantities. Our results indicate different effects on income inequality for
different t... | economics |
4,562 | Schooling Choice, Labour Market Matching, and Wages | econ.EM | We develop inference for a two-sided matching model where the characteristics
of agents on one side of the market are endogenous due to pre-matching
investments. The model can be used to measure the impact of frictions in labour
markets using a single cross-section of matched employer-employee data. The
observed matchi... | economics |
4,563 | Panel Data Analysis with Heterogeneous Dynamics | econ.EM | This paper proposes a model-free approach to analyze panel data with
heterogeneous dynamic structures across observational units. We first compute
the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations for each unit, and then
estimate the parameters of interest based on their empirical distributions. We
then investigat... | economics |
4,564 | A Bayesian panel VAR model to analyze the impact of climate change on high-income economies | econ.EM | In this paper, we assess the impact of climate shocks on futures markets for
agricultural commodities and a set of macroeconomic quantities for multiple
high-income economies. To capture relations among countries, markets, and
climate shocks, this paper proposes parsimonious methods to estimate
high-dimensional panel V... | economics |
4,565 | Varying Random Coefficient Models | econ.EM | This paper provides a new methodology to analyze unobserved heterogeneity
when observed characteristics are modeled nonlinearly. The proposed model
builds on varying random coefficients (VRC) that are determined by nonlinear
functions of observed regressors and additively separable unobservables. This
paper proposes a ... | economics |
4,566 | Inference on Local Average Treatment Effects for Misclassified Treatment | econ.EM | We develop point-identification for the local average treatment effect when
the binary treatment contains a measurement error. The standard instrumental
variable estimator is inconsistent for the parameter since the measurement
error is non-classical by construction. We correct the problem by identifying
the distributi... | economics |
4,567 | Shapley Value Methods for Attribution Modeling in Online Advertising | econ.EM | This paper re-examines the Shapley value methods for attribution analysis in
the area of online advertising. As a credit allocation solution in cooperative
game theory, Shapley value method directly quantifies the contribution of
online advertising inputs to the advertising key performance indicator (KPI)
across multip... | economics |
4,568 | Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects in Event Studies with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects | econ.EM | To estimate the dynamic effects of an absorbing treatment, researchers often
use two-way fixed effects regressions that include leads and lags of the
treatment. We show that in settings with variation in treatment timing across
units, the coefficient on a given lead or lag can be contaminated by effects
from other peri... | economics |
4,569 | Revisiting the thermal and superthermal two-class distribution of incomes: A critical perspective | econ.EM | This paper offers a two-pronged critique of the empirical investigation of
the income distribution performed by physicists over the past decade. Their
finding rely on the graphical analysis of the observed distribution of
normalized incomes. Two central observations lead to the conclusion that the
majority of incomes a... | economics |
4,570 | Estimating Treatment Effects in Mover Designs | econ.EM | Researchers increasingly leverage movement across multiple treatments to
estimate causal effects. While these "mover regressions" are often motivated by
a linear constant-effects model, it is not clear what they capture under weaker
quasi-experimental assumptions. I show that binary treatment mover regressions
recover ... | economics |
4,571 | Transaction Costs in Collective Waste Recovery Systems in the EU | econ.EM | The study aims to identify the institutional flaws of the current EU waste
management model by analysing the economic model of extended producer
responsibility and collective waste management systems and to create a model
for measuring the transaction costs borne by waste recovery organizations. The
model was approbate... | economics |
4,572 | Empirical Equilibrium | econ.EM | We study the foundations of empirical equilibrium, a refinement of Nash
equilibrium that is based on a non-parametric characterization of empirical
distributions of behavior in games (Velez and Brown,2020b arXiv:1907.12408).
The refinement can be alternatively defined as those Nash equilibria that do
not refute the reg... | economics |
4,573 | Price Competition with Geometric Brownian motion in Exchange Rate Uncertainty | econ.EM | We analyze an operational policy for a multinational manufacturer to hedge
against exchange rate uncertainties and competition. We consider a single
product and single period. Because of long-lead times, the capacity investment
must done before the selling season begins when the exchange rate between the
two countries ... | economics |
4,574 | Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers | econ.EM | Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate point and
distributional forecasts of call arrivals in order to achieve an optimal
balance between service quality and operating costs. We present a strategy for
selecting forecast models of call arrivals which is based on three pillars: (i)
flexibility of the... | economics |
4,575 | Economic inequality and Islamic Charity: An exploratory agent-based modeling approach | econ.EM | Economic inequality is one of the pivotal issues for most of economic and
social policy makers across the world to insure the sustainable economic growth
and justice. In the mainstream school of economics, namely neoclassical
theories, economic issues are dealt with in a mechanistic manner. Such a
mainstream framework ... | economics |
4,576 | Aide et Croissance dans les pays de l'Union Economique et Mon{é}taire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) : retour sur une relation controvers{é}e | econ.EM | The main purpose of this paper is to analyze threshold effects of official
development assistance (ODA) on economic growth in WAEMU zone countries. To
achieve this, the study is based on OECD and WDI data covering the period
1980-2015 and used Hansen's Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) model to
"bootstrap" aid threshold... | economics |
4,577 | Endogenous growth - A dynamic technology augmentation of the Solow model | econ.EM | In this paper, I endeavour to construct a new model, by extending the classic
exogenous economic growth model by including a measurement which tries to
explain and quantify the size of technological innovation ( A ) endogenously. I
do not agree technology is a "constant" exogenous variable, because it is
humans who cre... | economics |
4,578 | Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximations | econ.EM | This paper studies the identification and estimation of the optimal linear
approximation of a structural regression function. The parameter in the linear
approximation is called the Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximation
(OLIVA). This paper shows that a necessary condition for standard inference on
the OLI... | economics |
4,579 | Sufficient Statistics for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Structural Dynamic Logit Models | econ.EM | We study the identification and estimation of structural parameters in
dynamic panel data logit models where decisions are forward-looking and the
joint distribution of unobserved heterogeneity and observable state variables
is nonparametric, i.e., fixed-effects model. We consider models with two
endogenous state varia... | economics |
4,580 | Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective | econ.EM | This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of
firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous
coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel
considered in this paper features a large cross-sectional dimension N but short
time series T. D... | economics |
4,581 | Efficiency in Micro-Behaviors and FL Bias | econ.EM | In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of
pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1.
The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes
near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value
of the benefit... | economics |
4,582 | The Finite Sample Performance of Treatment Effects Estimators based on the Lasso | econ.EM | This paper contributes to the literature on treatment effects estimation with
machine learning inspired methods by studying the performance of different
estimators based on the Lasso. Building on recent work in the field of
high-dimensional statistics, we use the semiparametric efficient score
estimation structure to c... | economics |
4,583 | Data-Driven Investment Decision-Making: Applying Moore's Law and S-Curves to Business Strategies | econ.EM | This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates
(i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has
been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions
applied to the time dependence of performance for other technologies. The prior
work has... | economics |
4,584 | Happy family of stable marriages | econ.EM | Some aspects of the problem of stable marriage are discussed. There are two
distinguished marriage plans: the fully transferable case, where money can be
transferred between the participants, and the fully non transferable case where
each participant has its own rigid preference list regarding the other gender.
We cont... | economics |
4,585 | Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a fundamental value | econ.EM | This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value
the digital currency bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and
vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production
plays an important role in explaining bitcoin prices, challenging recent
allegations that b... | economics |
4,586 | Model Selection in Time Series Analysis: Using Information Criteria as an Alternative to Hypothesis Testing | econ.EM | The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance.
Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used
from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist
several competitive models. A typical approach to dealing with this is classic
hypothesis ... | economics |
4,587 | A Double Machine Learning Approach to Estimate the Effects of Musical Practice on Student's Skills | econ.EM | This study investigates the dose-response effects of making music on youth
development. Identification is based on the conditional independence assumption
and estimation is implemented using a recent double machine learning estimator.
The study proposes solutions to two highly practically relevant questions that
arise ... | economics |
4,588 | Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models | econ.EM | This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage
priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of
high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches
as a means to dealing with overparameterization problems in spatial
autoregressive specifications typi... | economics |
4,589 | Equilibrium Restrictions and Approximate Models -- With an application to Pricing Macroeconomic Risk | econ.EM | We propose a method that reconciles two popular approaches to structural
estimation and inference: Using a complete - yet approximate model versus
imposing a set of credible behavioral conditions. This is done by distorting
the approximate model to satisfy these conditions. We provide the asymptotic
theory and Monte Ca... | economics |
4,590 | Modeling the residential electricity consumption within a restructured power market | econ.EM | The United States' power market is featured by the lack of judicial power at
the federal level. The market thus provides a unique testing environment for
the market organization structure. At the same time, the econometric modeling
and forecasting of electricity market consumption become more challenging.
Import and ex... | economics |
4,591 | Estimation and Inference for Policy Relevant Treatment Effects | econ.EM | The policy relevant treatment effect (PRTE) measures the average effect of
switching from a status-quo policy to a counterfactual policy. Estimation of
the PRTE involves estimation of multiple preliminary parameters, including
propensity scores, conditional expectation functions of the outcome and
covariates given the ... | economics |
4,592 | Ill-posed Estimation in High-Dimensional Models with Instrumental Variables | econ.EM | This paper is concerned with inference about low-dimensional components of a
high-dimensional parameter vector $\beta^0$ which is identified through
instrumental variables. We allow for eigenvalues of the expected outer product
of included and excluded covariates, denoted by $M$, to shrink to zero as the
sample size in... | economics |
4,593 | Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators | econ.EM | I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical
likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical
likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and
confidence intervals, and Wald tests and confidence regions based on such
estimators. Furthermore, th... | economics |
4,594 | Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs | econ.EM | Many studies use shift-share (or ``Bartik'') instruments, which average a set
of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework
for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which
identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while
exposure shares are allow... | economics |
4,595 | The Impact of Supervision and Incentive Process in Explaining Wage Profile and Variance | econ.EM | The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical
workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee
optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the
more important such a process becomes, and the influence of such a process on
wage development grow... | economics |
4,596 | Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators | econ.EM | I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements
for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the
model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering
the moment function, which has been considered as critical for GMM. Regardless
of model mi... | economics |
4,597 | A Consistent Variance Estimator for 2SLS When Instruments Identify Different LATEs | econ.EM | Under treatment effect heterogeneity, an instrument identifies the
instrument-specific local average treatment effect (LATE). With multiple
instruments, two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimand is a weighted average of
different LATEs. What is often overlooked in the literature is that the
postulated moment condition ev... | economics |
4,598 | Leave-out estimation of variance components | econ.EM | We propose leave-out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of
linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include
analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many
regressors. An approximation algorithm is provided that enables accurate
computation of the esti... | economics |
4,599 | A Quantitative Analysis of Possible Futures of Autonomous Transport | econ.EM | Autonomous ships (AS) used for cargo transport have gained a considerable
amount of attention in recent years. They promise benefits such as reduced crew
costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores the
effects of a faster increase in technological performance in maritime shipping
achieved by ... | economics |
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