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4,500
Fixed Effect Estimation of Large T Panel Data Models
econ.EM
This article reviews recent advances in fixed effect estimation of panel data models for long panels, where the number of time periods is relatively large. We focus on semiparametric models with unobserved individual and time effects, where the distribution of the outcome variable conditional on covariates and unobserv...
economics
4,501
Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions
econ.EM
This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability o...
economics
4,502
Inference on Estimators defined by Mathematical Programming
econ.EM
We propose an inference procedure for estimators defined by mathematical programming problems, focusing on the important special cases of linear programming (LP) and quadratic programming (QP). In these settings, the coefficients in both the objective function and the constraints of the mathematical programming problem...
economics
4,503
Sharp bounds and testability of a Roy model of STEM major choices
econ.EM
We analyze the empirical content of the Roy model, stripped down to its essential features, namely sector specific unobserved heterogeneity and self-selection on the basis of potential outcomes. We characterize sharp bounds on the joint distribution of potential outcomes and testable implications of the Roy self-select...
economics
4,504
Zero-rating of Content and its Effect on the Quality of Service in the Internet
econ.EM
The ongoing net neutrality debate has generated a lot of heated discussions on whether or not monetary interactions should be regulated between content and access providers. Among the several topics discussed, `differential pricing' has recently received attention due to `zero-rating' platforms proposed by some service...
economics
4,505
Quasi-random Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis
econ.EM
The uncertainty and robustness of Computable General Equilibrium models can be assessed by conducting a Systematic Sensitivity Analysis. Different methods have been used in the literature for SSA of CGE models such as Gaussian Quadrature and Monte Carlo methods. This paper explores the use of Quasi-random Monte Carlo m...
economics
4,506
Estimation of Peer Effects in Endogenous Social Networks: Control Function Approach
econ.EM
We propose a method of estimating the linear-in-means model of peer effects in which the peer group, defined by a social network, is endogenous in the outcome equation for peer effects. Endogeneity is due to unobservable individual characteristics that influence both link formation in the network and the outcome of int...
economics
4,507
Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models
econ.EM
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross-sectio...
economics
4,508
Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions
econ.EM
There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for imp...
economics
4,509
Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programmes: A Machine Learning Approach
econ.EM
We systematically investigate the effect heterogeneity of job search programmes for unemployed workers. To investigate possibly heterogeneous employment effects, we combine non-experimental causal empirical models with Lasso-type estimators. The empirical analyses are based on rich administrative data from Swiss social...
economics
4,510
A Note on the Multi-Agent Contracts in Continuous Time
econ.EM
Dynamic contracts with multiple agents is a classical decentralized decision-making problem with asymmetric information. In this paper, we extend the single-agent dynamic incentive contract model in continuous-time to a multi-agent scheme in finite horizon and allow the terminal reward to be dependent on the history of...
economics
4,511
Rate-Optimal Estimation of the Intercept in a Semiparametric Sample-Selection Model
econ.EM
This paper presents a new estimator of the intercept of a linear regression model in cases where the outcome varaible is observed subject to a selection rule. The intercept is often in this context of inherent interest; for example, in a program evaluation context, the difference between the intercepts in outcome equat...
economics
4,512
A Note on Gale, Kuhn, and Tucker's Reductions of Zero-Sum Games
econ.EM
Gale, Kuhn and Tucker (1950) introduced two ways to reduce a zero-sum game by packaging some strategies with respect to a probability distribution on them. In terms of value, they gave conditions for a desirable reduction. We show that a probability distribution for a desirable reduction relies on optimal strategies in...
economics
4,513
Propensity score matching for multiple treatment levels: A CODA-based contribution
econ.EM
This study proposes a simple technique for propensity score matching for multiple treatment levels under the strong unconfoundedness assumption with the help of the Aitchison distance proposed in the field of compositional data analysis (CODA).
economics
4,514
Nonparametric Identification in Index Models of Link Formation
econ.EM
We consider an index model of dyadic link formation with a homophily effect index and a degree heterogeneity index. We provide nonparametric identification results in a single large network setting for the potentially nonparametric homophily effect function, the realizations of unobserved individual fixed effects and t...
economics
4,515
Startups and Stanford University
econ.EM
Startups have become in less than 50 years a major component of innovation and economic growth. Silicon Valley has been the place where the startup phenomenon was the most obvious and Stanford University was a major component of that success. Companies such as Google, Yahoo, Sun Microsystems, Cisco, Hewlett Packard had...
economics
4,516
Equity in Startups
econ.EM
Startups have become in less than 50 years a major component of innovation and economic growth. An important feature of the startup phenomenon has been the wealth created through equity in startups to all stakeholders. These include the startup founders, the investors, and also the employees through the stock-option me...
economics
4,517
Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start
econ.EM
I develop tools to learn about the average effects of providing an offer to participate in a program given data from an experiment that randomizes offers. I allow for the complication that individuals may not comply with their assigned status in the sense that those who are not provided an offer may receive one from ou...
economics
4,518
Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized Experiments
econ.EM
I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weigh...
economics
4,519
Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets
econ.EM
Futures market contracts with varying maturities are traded concurrently and the speed at which they process information is of value in understanding the pricing discovery process. Using price discovery measures, including Putnins (2013) information leadership share and intraday data, we quantify the proportional contr...
economics
4,520
Economic Complexity Unfolded: Interpretable Model for the Productive Structure of Economies
econ.EM
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. It resides on the premise of hidden capabilities - fundamental endowments underlying the productive structure. In general, measuring the capabilities behind economic complexity directly is difficult, and ind...
economics
4,521
The Research on the Stagnant Development of Shantou Special Economic Zone Under Reform and Opening-Up Policy
econ.EM
This study briefly introduces the development of Shantou Special Economic Zone under Reform and Opening-Up Policy from 1980 through 2016 with a focus on policy making issues and its influences on local economy. This paper is divided into two parts, 1980 to 1991, 1992 to 2016 in accordance with the separation of the ori...
economics
4,522
Constructive Identification of Heterogeneous Elasticities in the Cobb-Douglas Production Function
econ.EM
This paper presents the identification of heterogeneous elasticities in the Cobb-Douglas production function. The identification is constructive with closed-form formulas for the elasticity with respect to each input for each firm. We propose that the flexible input cost ratio plays the role of a control function under...
economics
4,523
Identification of and correction for publication bias
econ.EM
Some empirical results are more likely to be published than others. Such selective publication leads to biased estimates and distorted inference. This paper proposes two approaches for identifying the conditional probability of publication as a function of a study's results, the first based on systematic replication st...
economics
4,524
The Effect of Partisanship and Political Advertising on Close Family Ties
econ.EM
Research on growing American political polarization and antipathy primarily studies public institutions and political processes, ignoring private effects including strained family ties. Using anonymized smartphone-location data and precinct-level voting, we show that Thanksgiving dinners attended by opposing-party prec...
economics
4,525
Aggregating Google Trends: Multivariate Testing and Analysis
econ.EM
Web search data are a valuable source of business and economic information. Previous studies have utilized Google Trends web search data for economic forecasting. We expand this work by providing algorithms to combine and aggregate search volume data, so that the resulting data is both consistent over time and consiste...
economics
4,526
Set Identified Dynamic Economies and Robustness to Misspecification
econ.EM
We propose a new inferential methodology for dynamic economies that is robust to misspecification of the mechanism generating frictions. Economies with frictions are treated as perturbations of a frictionless economy that are consistent with a variety of mechanisms. We derive a representation for the law of motion for ...
economics
4,527
Cointegration in functional autoregressive processes
econ.EM
This paper defines the class of $\mathcal{H}$-valued autoregressive (AR) processes with a unit root of finite type, where $\mathcal{H}$ is an infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space, and derives a generalization of the Granger-Johansen Representation Theorem valid for any integration order $d=1,2,\dots$. An existe...
economics
4,528
Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for High-dimensional Linear Models with Many Endogenous Variables
econ.EM
High-dimensional linear models with endogenous variables play an increasingly important role in recent econometric literature. In this work we allow for models with many endogenous variables and many instrument variables to achieve identification. Because of the high-dimensionality in the second stage, constructing hon...
economics
4,529
Resource Abundance and Life Expectancy
econ.EM
This paper investigates the impacts of major natural resource discoveries since 1960 on life expectancy in the nations that they were resource poor prior to the discoveries. Previous literature explains the relation between nations wealth and life expectancy, but it has been silent about the impacts of resource discove...
economics
4,530
Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area
econ.EM
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent quantity during estimation. Only a limited number of contributions to the lit...
economics
4,531
A Method for Winning at Lotteries
econ.EM
We report a new result on lotteries --- that a well-funded syndicate has a purely mechanical strategy to achieve expected returns of 10\% to 25\% in an equiprobable lottery with no take and no carryover pool. We prove that an optimal strategy (Nash equilibrium) in a game between the syndicate and other players consists...
economics
4,532
Does it Pay to Buy the Pot in the Canadian 6/49 Lotto? Implications for Lottery Design
econ.EM
Despite its unusual payout structure, the Canadian 6/49 Lotto is one of the few government sponsored lotteries that has the potential for a favorable strategy we call "buying the pot." By buying the pot we mean that a syndicate buys each ticket in the lottery, ensuring that it holds a jackpot winner. We assume that the...
economics
4,533
Solving Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Integrated or Expected Value Function?
econ.EM
Dynamic Discrete Choice Models (DDCMs) are important in the structural estimation literature. Since the structural errors are practically always continuous and unbounded in nature, researchers often use the expected value function. The idea to solve for the expected value function made solution more practical and estim...
economics
4,534
Heterogeneous structural breaks in panel data models
econ.EM
This paper develops a new model and estimation procedure for panel data that allows us to identify heterogeneous structural breaks. We model individual heterogeneity using a grouped pattern. For each group, we allow common structural breaks in the coefficients. However, the number, timing, and size of these breaks can ...
economics
4,535
Characterizing Assumption of Rationality by Incomplete Information
econ.EM
We characterize common assumption of rationality of 2-person games within an incomplete information framework. We use the lexicographic model with incomplete information and show that a belief hierarchy expresses common assumption of rationality within a complete information framework if and only if there is a belief h...
economics
4,536
Quantifying Health Shocks Over the Life Cycle
econ.EM
We first show (1) the importance of investigating health expenditure process using the order two Markov chain model, rather than the standard order one model, which is widely used in the literature. Markov chain of order two is the minimal framework that is capable of distinguishing those who experience a certain healt...
economics
4,537
Ordered Kripke Model, Permissibility, and Convergence of Probabilistic Kripke Model
econ.EM
We define a modification of the standard Kripke model, called the ordered Kripke model, by introducing a linear order on the set of accessible states of each state. We first show this model can be used to describe the lexicographic belief hierarchy in epistemic game theory, and perfect rationalizability can be characte...
economics
4,538
How Can We Induce More Women to Competitions?
econ.EM
Why women avoid participating in a competition and how can we encourage them to participate in it? In this paper, we investigate how social image concerns affect women's decision to compete. We first construct a theoretical model and show that participating in a competition, even under affirmative action policies favor...
economics
4,539
Hyper-rational choice theory
econ.EM
The rational choice theory is based on this idea that people rationally pursue goals for increasing their personal interests. In most conditions, the behavior of an actor is not independent of the person and others' behavior. Here, we present a new concept of rational choice as a hyper-rational choice which in this con...
economics
4,540
Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A MIDAS-SVAR model of US capital flows
econ.EM
We develop a new VAR model for structural analysis with mixed-frequency data. The MIDAS-SVAR model allows to identify structural dynamic links exploiting the information contained in variables sampled at different frequencies. It also provides a general framework to test homogeneous frequency-based representations vers...
economics
4,541
An Experimental Investigation of Preference Misrepresentation in the Residency Match
econ.EM
The development and deployment of matching procedures that incentivize truthful preference reporting is considered one of the major successes of market design research. In this study, we test the degree to which these procedures succeed in eliminating preference misrepresentation. We administered an online experiment t...
economics
4,542
Prediction of Shared Bicycle Demand with Wavelet Thresholding
econ.EM
Consumers are creatures of habit, often periodic, tied to work, shopping and other schedules. We analyzed one month of data from the world's largest bike-sharing company to elicit demand behavioral cycles, initially using models from animal tracking that showed large customers fit an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with deman...
economics
4,543
A General Method for Demand Inversion
econ.EM
This paper describes a numerical method to solve for mean product qualities which equates the real market share to the market share predicted by a discrete choice model. The method covers a general class of discrete choice model, including the pure characteristics model in Berry and Pakes(2007) and the random coefficie...
economics
4,544
Knowledge and Unanimous Acceptance of Core Payoffs: An Epistemic Foundation for Cooperative Game Theory
econ.EM
We provide an epistemic foundation for cooperative games by proof theory via studying the knowledge for players unanimously accepting only core payoffs. We first transform each cooperative game into a decision problem where a player can accept or reject any payoff vector offered to her based on her knowledge about avai...
economics
4,545
The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions
econ.EM
In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Bayesian model estimation is based on Gibbs samp...
economics
4,546
On the iterated estimation of dynamic discrete choice games
econ.EM
We study the asymptotic properties of a class of estimators of the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice games. We consider K-stage policy iteration (PI) estimators, where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation. This class nests several estimators proposed in the literature such...
economics
4,547
Kernel Estimation for Panel Data with Heterogeneous Dynamics
econ.EM
This paper proposes nonparametric kernel-smoothing estimation for panel data to examine the degree of heterogeneity across cross-sectional units. We first estimate the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations for each unit and then apply kernel smoothing to compute their density functions. The dependence of t...
economics
4,548
Identifying the occurrence or non occurrence of cognitive bias in situations resembling the Monty Hall problem
econ.EM
People reason heuristically in situations resembling inferential puzzles such as Bertrand's box paradox and the Monty Hall problem. The practical significance of that fact for economic decision making is uncertain because a departure from sound reasoning may, but does not necessarily, result in a "cognitively biased" o...
economics
4,549
On the solution of the variational optimisation in the rational inattention framework
econ.EM
I analyse the solution method for the variational optimisation problem in the rational inattention framework proposed by Christopher A. Sims. The solution, in general, does not exist, although it may exist in exceptional cases. I show that the solution does not exist for the quadratic and the logarithmic objective func...
economics
4,550
Synthetic Control Methods and Big Data
econ.EM
Many macroeconomic policy questions may be assessed in a case study framework, where the time series of a treated unit is compared to a counterfactual constructed from a large pool of control units. I provide a general framework for this setting, tailored to predict the counterfactual by minimizing a tradeoff between u...
economics
4,551
An Note on Why Geographically Weighted Regression Overcomes Multidimensional-Kernel-Based Varying-Coefficient Model
econ.EM
It is widely known that geographically weighted regression(GWR) is essentially same as varying-coefficient model. In the former research about varying-coefficient model, scholars tend to use multidimensional-kernel-based locally weighted estimation(MLWE) so that information of both distance and direction is considered....
economics
4,552
Pricing Mechanism in Information Goods
econ.EM
We study three pricing mechanisms' performance and their effects on the participants in the data industry from the data supply chain perspective. A win-win pricing strategy for the players in the data supply chain is proposed. We obtain analytical solutions in each pricing mechanism, including the decentralized and cen...
economics
4,553
A Nonparametric Approach to Measure the Heterogeneous Spatial Association: Under Spatial Temporal Data
econ.EM
Spatial association and heterogeneity are two critical areas in the research about spatial analysis, geography, statistics and so on. Though large amounts of outstanding methods has been proposed and studied, there are few of them tend to study spatial association under heterogeneous environment. Additionally, most of ...
economics
4,554
A study of strategy to the remove and ease TBT for increasing export in GCC6 countries
econ.EM
The last technical barriers to trade(TBT) between countries are Non-Tariff Barriers(NTBs), meaning all trade barriers are possible other than Tariff Barriers. And the most typical examples are (TBT), which refer to measure Technical Regulation, Standards, Procedure for Conformity Assessment, Test & Certification etc. T...
economics
4,555
How Smart Are `Water Smart Landscapes'?
econ.EM
Understanding the effectiveness of alternative approaches to water conservation is crucially important for ensuring the security and reliability of water services for urban residents. We analyze data from one of the longest-running "cash for grass" policies - the Southern Nevada Water Authority's Water Smart Landscapes...
economics
4,556
Business Cycles in Economics
econ.EM
The business cycles are generated by the oscillating macro-/micro-/nano- economic output variables in the economy of the scale and the scope in the amplitude/frequency/phase/time domains in the economics. The accurate forward looking assumptions on the business cycles oscillation dynamics can optimize the financial cap...
economics
4,557
Testing for Unobserved Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Observational Data
econ.EM
Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in the recent policy evaluation literature (see e.g., Heckman and Vytlacil, 2005). This paper proposes a nonparametric test for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects in a treatment effect model with a binary treatment assignment, allowing for individu...
economics
4,558
Testing Continuity of a Density via g-order statistics in the Regression Discontinuity Design
econ.EM
In the regression discontinuity design (RDD), it is common practice to assess the credibility of the design by testing the continuity of the density of the running variable at the cut-off, e.g., McCrary (2008). In this paper we propose an approximate sign test for continuity of a density at a point based on the so-call...
economics
4,559
Causal Inference for Survival Analysis
econ.EM
In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this purpose. A real world healthcare dataset was used with about 1800 patients with bre...
economics
4,560
Two-way fixed effects estimators with heterogeneous treatment effects
econ.EM
Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may for instan...
economics
4,561
How does monetary policy affect income inequality in Japan? Evidence from grouped data
econ.EM
We examine the effects of monetary policy on income inequality in Japan using a novel econometric approach that jointly estimates the Gini coefficient based on micro-level grouped data of households and the dynamics of macroeconomic quantities. Our results indicate different effects on income inequality for different t...
economics
4,562
Schooling Choice, Labour Market Matching, and Wages
econ.EM
We develop inference for a two-sided matching model where the characteristics of agents on one side of the market are endogenous due to pre-matching investments. The model can be used to measure the impact of frictions in labour markets using a single cross-section of matched employer-employee data. The observed matchi...
economics
4,563
Panel Data Analysis with Heterogeneous Dynamics
econ.EM
This paper proposes a model-free approach to analyze panel data with heterogeneous dynamic structures across observational units. We first compute the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations for each unit, and then estimate the parameters of interest based on their empirical distributions. We then investigat...
economics
4,564
A Bayesian panel VAR model to analyze the impact of climate change on high-income economies
econ.EM
In this paper, we assess the impact of climate shocks on futures markets for agricultural commodities and a set of macroeconomic quantities for multiple high-income economies. To capture relations among countries, markets, and climate shocks, this paper proposes parsimonious methods to estimate high-dimensional panel V...
economics
4,565
Varying Random Coefficient Models
econ.EM
This paper provides a new methodology to analyze unobserved heterogeneity when observed characteristics are modeled nonlinearly. The proposed model builds on varying random coefficients (VRC) that are determined by nonlinear functions of observed regressors and additively separable unobservables. This paper proposes a ...
economics
4,566
Inference on Local Average Treatment Effects for Misclassified Treatment
econ.EM
We develop point-identification for the local average treatment effect when the binary treatment contains a measurement error. The standard instrumental variable estimator is inconsistent for the parameter since the measurement error is non-classical by construction. We correct the problem by identifying the distributi...
economics
4,567
Shapley Value Methods for Attribution Modeling in Online Advertising
econ.EM
This paper re-examines the Shapley value methods for attribution analysis in the area of online advertising. As a credit allocation solution in cooperative game theory, Shapley value method directly quantifies the contribution of online advertising inputs to the advertising key performance indicator (KPI) across multip...
economics
4,568
Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects in Event Studies with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
econ.EM
To estimate the dynamic effects of an absorbing treatment, researchers often use two-way fixed effects regressions that include leads and lags of the treatment. We show that in settings with variation in treatment timing across units, the coefficient on a given lead or lag can be contaminated by effects from other peri...
economics
4,569
Revisiting the thermal and superthermal two-class distribution of incomes: A critical perspective
econ.EM
This paper offers a two-pronged critique of the empirical investigation of the income distribution performed by physicists over the past decade. Their finding rely on the graphical analysis of the observed distribution of normalized incomes. Two central observations lead to the conclusion that the majority of incomes a...
economics
4,570
Estimating Treatment Effects in Mover Designs
econ.EM
Researchers increasingly leverage movement across multiple treatments to estimate causal effects. While these "mover regressions" are often motivated by a linear constant-effects model, it is not clear what they capture under weaker quasi-experimental assumptions. I show that binary treatment mover regressions recover ...
economics
4,571
Transaction Costs in Collective Waste Recovery Systems in the EU
econ.EM
The study aims to identify the institutional flaws of the current EU waste management model by analysing the economic model of extended producer responsibility and collective waste management systems and to create a model for measuring the transaction costs borne by waste recovery organizations. The model was approbate...
economics
4,572
Empirical Equilibrium
econ.EM
We study the foundations of empirical equilibrium, a refinement of Nash equilibrium that is based on a non-parametric characterization of empirical distributions of behavior in games (Velez and Brown,2020b arXiv:1907.12408). The refinement can be alternatively defined as those Nash equilibria that do not refute the reg...
economics
4,573
Price Competition with Geometric Brownian motion in Exchange Rate Uncertainty
econ.EM
We analyze an operational policy for a multinational manufacturer to hedge against exchange rate uncertainties and competition. We consider a single product and single period. Because of long-lead times, the capacity investment must done before the selling season begins when the exchange rate between the two countries ...
economics
4,574
Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers
econ.EM
Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate point and distributional forecasts of call arrivals in order to achieve an optimal balance between service quality and operating costs. We present a strategy for selecting forecast models of call arrivals which is based on three pillars: (i) flexibility of the...
economics
4,575
Economic inequality and Islamic Charity: An exploratory agent-based modeling approach
econ.EM
Economic inequality is one of the pivotal issues for most of economic and social policy makers across the world to insure the sustainable economic growth and justice. In the mainstream school of economics, namely neoclassical theories, economic issues are dealt with in a mechanistic manner. Such a mainstream framework ...
economics
4,576
Aide et Croissance dans les pays de l'Union Economique et Mon{é}taire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) : retour sur une relation controvers{é}e
econ.EM
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze threshold effects of official development assistance (ODA) on economic growth in WAEMU zone countries. To achieve this, the study is based on OECD and WDI data covering the period 1980-2015 and used Hansen's Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) model to "bootstrap" aid threshold...
economics
4,577
Endogenous growth - A dynamic technology augmentation of the Solow model
econ.EM
In this paper, I endeavour to construct a new model, by extending the classic exogenous economic growth model by including a measurement which tries to explain and quantify the size of technological innovation ( A ) endogenously. I do not agree technology is a "constant" exogenous variable, because it is humans who cre...
economics
4,578
Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximations
econ.EM
This paper studies the identification and estimation of the optimal linear approximation of a structural regression function. The parameter in the linear approximation is called the Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximation (OLIVA). This paper shows that a necessary condition for standard inference on the OLI...
economics
4,579
Sufficient Statistics for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Structural Dynamic Logit Models
econ.EM
We study the identification and estimation of structural parameters in dynamic panel data logit models where decisions are forward-looking and the joint distribution of unobserved heterogeneity and observable state variables is nonparametric, i.e., fixed-effects model. We consider models with two endogenous state varia...
economics
4,580
Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective
econ.EM
This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in this paper features a large cross-sectional dimension N but short time series T. D...
economics
4,581
Efficiency in Micro-Behaviors and FL Bias
econ.EM
In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value of the benefit...
economics
4,582
The Finite Sample Performance of Treatment Effects Estimators based on the Lasso
econ.EM
This paper contributes to the literature on treatment effects estimation with machine learning inspired methods by studying the performance of different estimators based on the Lasso. Building on recent work in the field of high-dimensional statistics, we use the semiparametric efficient score estimation structure to c...
economics
4,583
Data-Driven Investment Decision-Making: Applying Moore's Law and S-Curves to Business Strategies
econ.EM
This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied to the time dependence of performance for other technologies. The prior work has...
economics
4,584
Happy family of stable marriages
econ.EM
Some aspects of the problem of stable marriage are discussed. There are two distinguished marriage plans: the fully transferable case, where money can be transferred between the participants, and the fully non transferable case where each participant has its own rigid preference list regarding the other gender. We cont...
economics
4,585
Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a fundamental value
econ.EM
This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining bitcoin prices, challenging recent allegations that b...
economics
4,586
Model Selection in Time Series Analysis: Using Information Criteria as an Alternative to Hypothesis Testing
econ.EM
The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several competitive models. A typical approach to dealing with this is classic hypothesis ...
economics
4,587
A Double Machine Learning Approach to Estimate the Effects of Musical Practice on Student's Skills
econ.EM
This study investigates the dose-response effects of making music on youth development. Identification is based on the conditional independence assumption and estimation is implemented using a recent double machine learning estimator. The study proposes solutions to two highly practically relevant questions that arise ...
economics
4,588
Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models
econ.EM
This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches as a means to dealing with overparameterization problems in spatial autoregressive specifications typi...
economics
4,589
Equilibrium Restrictions and Approximate Models -- With an application to Pricing Macroeconomic Risk
econ.EM
We propose a method that reconciles two popular approaches to structural estimation and inference: Using a complete - yet approximate model versus imposing a set of credible behavioral conditions. This is done by distorting the approximate model to satisfy these conditions. We provide the asymptotic theory and Monte Ca...
economics
4,590
Modeling the residential electricity consumption within a restructured power market
econ.EM
The United States' power market is featured by the lack of judicial power at the federal level. The market thus provides a unique testing environment for the market organization structure. At the same time, the econometric modeling and forecasting of electricity market consumption become more challenging. Import and ex...
economics
4,591
Estimation and Inference for Policy Relevant Treatment Effects
econ.EM
The policy relevant treatment effect (PRTE) measures the average effect of switching from a status-quo policy to a counterfactual policy. Estimation of the PRTE involves estimation of multiple preliminary parameters, including propensity scores, conditional expectation functions of the outcome and covariates given the ...
economics
4,592
Ill-posed Estimation in High-Dimensional Models with Instrumental Variables
econ.EM
This paper is concerned with inference about low-dimensional components of a high-dimensional parameter vector $\beta^0$ which is identified through instrumental variables. We allow for eigenvalues of the expected outer product of included and excluded covariates, denoted by $M$, to shrink to zero as the sample size in...
economics
4,593
Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators
econ.EM
I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals, and Wald tests and confidence regions based on such estimators. Furthermore, th...
economics
4,594
Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs
econ.EM
Many studies use shift-share (or ``Bartik'') instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while exposure shares are allow...
economics
4,595
The Impact of Supervision and Incentive Process in Explaining Wage Profile and Variance
econ.EM
The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the more important such a process becomes, and the influence of such a process on wage development grow...
economics
4,596
Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators
econ.EM
I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment function, which has been considered as critical for GMM. Regardless of model mi...
economics
4,597
A Consistent Variance Estimator for 2SLS When Instruments Identify Different LATEs
econ.EM
Under treatment effect heterogeneity, an instrument identifies the instrument-specific local average treatment effect (LATE). With multiple instruments, two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimand is a weighted average of different LATEs. What is often overlooked in the literature is that the postulated moment condition ev...
economics
4,598
Leave-out estimation of variance components
econ.EM
We propose leave-out estimators of quadratic forms designed for the study of linear models with unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include analysis of variance and tests of linear restrictions in models with many regressors. An approximation algorithm is provided that enables accurate computation of the esti...
economics
4,599
A Quantitative Analysis of Possible Futures of Autonomous Transport
econ.EM
Autonomous ships (AS) used for cargo transport have gained a considerable amount of attention in recent years. They promise benefits such as reduced crew costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores the effects of a faster increase in technological performance in maritime shipping achieved by ...
economics