Unnamed: 0
int64
0
41k
title
stringlengths
4
274
category
stringlengths
5
18
summary
stringlengths
22
3.66k
theme
stringclasses
8 values
4,400
The Minimal Model of Financial Complexity
q-fin.TR
A representative investor generates realistic and complex security price paths by following this trading strategy: if, a few ticks ago, the market asset had two consecutive upticks or two consecutive downticks, then sell, and otherwise buy. This simple, unique, and robust model is the smallest possible deterministic mo...
finance
4,401
Emergence of Power Law in a Market with Mixed Models
q-fin.TR
We investigate the problem of wealth distribution from the viewpoint of asset exchange. Robust nature of Pareto's law across economies, ideologies and nations suggests that this could be an outcome of trading strategies. However, the simple asset exchange models fail to reproduce this feature. A yardsale(YS) model in w...
finance
4,402
Effects of introduction of new resources and fragmentation of existing resources on limiting wealth distribution in asset exchange models
q-fin.TR
Pareto law, which states that wealth distribution in societies have a power-law tail, has been a subject of intensive investigations in statistical physics community. Several models have been employed to explain this behavior. However, most of the agent based models assume the conservation of number of agents and wealt...
finance
4,403
A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design
q-fin.TR
Recently, several new pari-mutuel mechanisms have been introduced to organize markets for contingent claims. Hanson introduced a market maker derived from the logarithmic scoring rule, and later Chen and Pennock developed a cost function formulation for the market maker. On the other hand, the SCPM model of Peters et a...
finance
4,404
Optimal Trade Execution in Illiquid Markets
q-fin.TR
We study optimal trade execution strategies in financial markets with discrete order flow. The agent has a finite liquidation horizon and must minimize price impact given a random number of incoming trade counterparties. Assuming that the order flow $N$ is given by a Poisson process, we give a full analysis of the prop...
finance
4,405
Scale Invariance, Bounded Rationality and Non-Equilibrium Economics
q-fin.TR
We study a class of heterogeneous agent-based models which are based on a basic set of principles, and the most fundamental operations of an economic system: trade and product transformations. A basic guiding principle is scale invariance, which means that the dynamics of the economy should not depend on the units us...
finance
4,406
Liquidity Crisis, Granularity of the Order Book and Price Fluctuations
q-fin.TR
We introduce a microscopic model for the dynamics of the order book to study how the lack of liquidity influences price fluctuations. We use the average density of the stored orders (granularity $g$) as a proxy for liquidity. This leads to a Price Impact Surface which depends on both volume $\omega$ and $g$. The depend...
finance
4,407
Perturbation theory in a pure exchange non-equilibrium economy
q-fin.TR
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous preferences and probabilistic interaction between agents. We are able to show that i...
finance
4,408
Stock markets and quantum dynamics: a second quantized description
q-fin.TR
In this paper we continue our descriptions of stock markets in terms of some non abelian operators which are used to describe the portfolio of the various traders and other {\em observable} quantities. After a first prototype model with only two traders, we discuss a more realistic model of market with an arbitrary num...
finance
4,409
Simplified stock markets described by number operators
q-fin.TR
In this paper we continue our systematic analysis of the operatorial approach previously proposed in an economical context and we discuss a {\em mixed} toy model of a simplified stock market, i.e. a model in which the price of the shares is given as an input. We deduce the time evolution of the portfolio of the various...
finance
4,410
Emergence of Price Divergence in a Model Short-Term Electric Power Market
q-fin.TR
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own budget and preferences but not those of any other agent. The near-equilibrium pr...
finance
4,411
Housing Market Microstructure
q-fin.TR
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti...
finance
4,412
A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets
q-fin.TR
In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are...
finance
4,413
The scale of market quakes
q-fin.TR
We define a methodology to quantify market activity on a 24 hour basis by defining a scale, the so-called scale of market quakes (SMQ). The SMQ is designed within a framework where we analyse the dynamics of excess price moves from one directional change of price to the next. We use the SMQ to quantify the FX market an...
finance
4,414
Sensitivity of the Performance of a Simple Exchange Model to its Topology
q-fin.TR
We study a simple exchange model in which price is fixed and the amount of a good transferred between actors depends only on the actors' respective budgets and the existence of a link between transacting actors. The model induces a simply-connected but possibly multi-component bipartite graph. A trading session on a fi...
finance
4,415
Outsider Trading
q-fin.TR
In this paper we examine inefficiencies and information disparity in the Japanese stock market. By carefully analysing information publicly available on the internet, an `outsider' to conventional statistical arbitrage strategies--which are based on market microstructure, company releases, or analyst reports--can never...
finance
4,416
Statistical identification with hidden Markov models of large order splitting strategies in an equity market
q-fin.TR
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick by tick inventory var...
finance
4,417
"Market making" behaviour in an order book model and its impact on the bid-ask spread
q-fin.TR
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the financial community. In this paper, we propose to enhance a basic zero-intelligence o...
finance
4,418
Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns
q-fin.TR
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o...
finance
4,419
Modelling savings behavior of agents in the kinetic exchange models of market
q-fin.TR
Kinetic exchange models have been successful in explaining the shape of the income/wealth distribution in the economies. However, such models usually make some ad-hoc assumptions when it comes to determining the savings factor. Here, we examine a few models in and out of the domain of standard neo-classical economics t...
finance
4,420
Optimizing a basket against the efficient market hypothesis
q-fin.TR
The possibility that the collective dynamics of a set of stocks could lead to a specific basket violating the efficient market hypothesis is investigated. Precisely, we show that it is systematically possible to form a basket with a non-trivial autocorrelation structure when the examined time scales are at the order of...
finance
4,421
Automated Liquidity Provision and the Demise of Traditional Market Making
q-fin.TR
Traditional market makers are losing their importance as automated systems have largely assumed the role of liquidity provision in markets. We update the model of Glosten and Milgrom (1985) to analyze this new world: we add multiple securities and introduce an automated market maker who uses the relationships between s...
finance
4,422
Convergence of Income Growth Rates in Evolutionary Agent-Based Economics
q-fin.TR
We consider a heterogeneous agent-based economic model where economic agents have strictly bounded rationality and where income allocation strategies evolve through selective imitation. Income is calculated by a Cobb-Douglas type production function, and selection of strategies for imitation depends on the income growt...
finance
4,423
Financial correlations at ultra-high frequency: theoretical models and empirical estimation
q-fin.TR
A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a characterization of stochastic models of stock price returns which is appropriat...
finance
4,424
Insider Trading in the Market with Rational Expected Price
q-fin.TR
Kyle (1985) builds a pioneering and influential model, in which an insider with long-lived private information submits an optimal order in each period given the market maker's pricing rule. An inconsistency exists to some extent in the sense that the ``constant pricing rule " actually assumes an adaptive expected price...
finance
4,425
Trading activity and price impact in parallel markets: SETS vs. off-book market at the London Stock Exchange
q-fin.TR
We empirically study the trading activity in the electronic on-book segment and in the dealership off-book segment of the London Stock Exchange, investigating separately the trading of active market members and of other market participants which are non-members. We find that (i) the volume distribution of off-book tran...
finance
4,426
Inside Trading, Public Disclosure and Imperfect Competition
q-fin.TR
In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model in the style of Kyle (1985)'s inside trading model, by assuming that there are at least two insiders in the market with long-lived private information, under the requirement that each insider publicly discloses his stock trades after the fact. Based on this model, ...
finance
4,427
Analysis of trade packages in Chinese stock market
q-fin.TR
This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the number of trades and the total trading volume of trade packages, and analyze the possible s...
finance
4,428
The slippage paradox
q-fin.TR
Buying or selling assets leads to transaction costs for the investor. On one hand, it is well know to all market practionaires that the transaction costs are positive on average and present therefore systematic loss. On the other hand, for every trade, there is a buy side and a sell side, the total amount of asset and ...
finance
4,429
Pollution permits, Strategic Trading and Dynamic Technology Adoption
q-fin.TR
This paper analyzes the dynamic incentives for technology adoption under a transferable permits system, which allows for strategic trading on the permit market. Initially, firms can invest both in low-emitting production technologies and trade permits. In the model, technology adoption and allowance price are generated...
finance
4,430
Impact of heterogenous prior beliefs and disclosed insider trades
q-fin.TR
In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl...
finance
4,431
Dealing with the Inventory Risk. A solution to the market making problem
q-fin.TR
Market makers continuously set bid and ask quotes for the stocks they have under consideration. Hence they face a complex optimization problem in which their return, based on the bid-ask spread they quote and the frequency at which they indeed provide liquidity, is challenged by the price risk they bear due to their in...
finance
4,432
Adding to the Regulator's Toolbox: Integration and Extension of Two Leading Market Models
q-fin.TR
As demonstrated during the recent financial crisis, regulators require additional analytical tools to assess systemic risk in the financial sector. This paper describes one such tool; namely a novel market modeling and analysis capability. Our model builds upon two leading market models: one which emphasizes market mic...
finance
4,433
Efficiency and Equilibria in Games of Optimal Derivative Design
q-fin.TR
In this paper the problem of optimal derivative design, profit maximization and risk minimization under adverse selection when multiple agencies compete for the business of a continuum of heterogenous agents is studied. The presence of ties in the agents' best-response correspondences yields discontinuous payoff functi...
finance
4,434
Price impact asymmetry of institutional trading in Chinese stock market
q-fin.TR
The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in Chinese stock markets in year 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact...
finance
4,435
A limit order book model for latency arbitrage
q-fin.TR
We consider a single security market based on a limit order book and two investors, with different speeds of trade execution. If the fast investor can front-run the slower investor, we show that this allows the fast trader to obtain risk free profits, but that these profits cannot be scaled. We derive the fast trader's...
finance
4,436
High Frequency Lead/lag Relationships - Empirical facts
q-fin.TR
Lead/lag relationships are an important stylized fact at high frequency. Some assets follow the path of others with a small time lag. We provide indicators to measure this phenomenon using tick-by-tick data. Strongly asymmetric cross-correlation functions are empirically observed, especially in the future/stock case. W...
finance
4,437
Semiclosed Pricing Mechanism
q-fin.TR
This paper aims at designing the different important components of a semi-closed simulated stock market (pricing mechanism, stock allocation and news generation). The purpose is to understand the interactions of the different aspects within a 'semi-closed' system. The complexity and nature of the system led to the proc...
finance
4,438
Price Jump Prediction in Limit Order Book
q-fin.TR
A limit order book provides information on available limit order prices and their volumes. Based on these quantities, we give an empirical result on the relationship between the bid-ask liquidity balance and trade sign and we show that liquidity balance on best bid/best ask is quite informative for predicting the futur...
finance
4,439
Patience vs. Impatience of Stock Traders
q-fin.TR
An ability to postpone one's execution without penalty provides an important strategic advantage in high-frequency trading. To elucidate competition between traders one has to formulate to a quantitative theory of formation of the execution price from market expectations and quotes. This theory was provided in 2005 by ...
finance
4,440
Optimal multifactor trading under proportional transaction costs
q-fin.TR
Proportional transaction costs present difficult theoretical problems in trading algorithm design, on account of their lack of analytical tractability. The author derives a solution of DT-NT-DT form for an arbitrary model in which the the traded asset has diffusive dynamics described by one or more stochastic risk fact...
finance
4,441
Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price
q-fin.TR
We analyze a controlled price formation experiment in the laboratory that shows evidence for bubbles. We calibrate two models that demonstrate with high statistical significance that these laboratory bubbles have a tendency to grow faster than exponential due to positive feedback. We show that the positive feedback ope...
finance
4,442
Optimal High Frequency Trading in a Pro-Rata Microstructure with Predictive Information
q-fin.TR
We propose a framework to study optimal trading policies in a one-tick pro-rata limit order book, as typically arises in short-term interest rate futures contracts. The high-frequency trader has the choice to trade via market orders or limit orders, which are represented respectively by impulse controls and regular con...
finance
4,443
Optimal starting times, stopping times and risk measures for algorithmic trading: Target Close and Implementation Shortfall
q-fin.TR
We derive explicit recursive formulas for Target Close (TC) and Implementation Shortfall (IS) in the Almgren-Chriss framework. We explain how to compute the optimal starting and stopping times for IS and TC, respectively, given a minimum trading size. We also show how to add a minimum participation rate constraint (Per...
finance
4,444
Price manipulation in a market impact model with dark pool
q-fin.TR
For a market impact model, price manipulation and related notions play a role that is similar to the role of arbitrage in a derivatives pricing model. Here, we give a systematic investigation into such regularity issues when orders can be executed both at a traditional exchange and in a dark pool. To this end, we focus...
finance
4,445
Large tick assets: implicit spread and optimal tick size
q-fin.TR
In this work, we provide a framework linking microstructural properties of an asset to the tick value of the exchange. In particular, we bring to light a quantity, referred to as implicit spread, playing the role of spread for large tick assets, for which the effective spread is almost always equal to one tick. The rel...
finance
4,446
Adaptive Execution: Exploration and Learning of Price Impact
q-fin.TR
We consider a model in which a trader aims to maximize expected risk-adjusted profit while trading a single security. In our model, each price change is a linear combination of observed factors, impact resulting from the trader's current and prior activity, and unpredictable random effects. The trader must learn coeffi...
finance
4,447
The Transition from Brownian Motion to Boom-and-Bust Dynamics in Financial and Economic Systems
q-fin.TR
Quasi-equilibrium models for aggregate variables are widely-used throughout finance and economics. The validity of such models depends crucially upon assuming that the systems' participants behave both independently and in a Markovian fashion. We present a simplified market model to demonstrate that herding effects b...
finance
4,448
Price-Setting of Market Makers: A Filtering Problem with an Endogenous Filtration
q-fin.TR
We study the price-setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. Thereby we follow the classic Glosten-Milgrom model that defines bid and ask prices as expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers ...
finance
4,449
High Frequency Market Making
q-fin.TR
Since they were authorized by the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission in 1998, electronic exchanges have boomed, and by 2010 high frequency trading accounted for over 70% of equity trades in the US. Such markets are thought to increase liquidity because of the presence of market makers, who are willing to trade as co...
finance
4,450
Optimal execution and block trade pricing: a general framework
q-fin.TR
In this article, we develop a general framework to study optimal execution and to price block trades. We prove existence of optimal liquidation strategies and we provide regularity results for optimal strategies under very general hypotheses. We exhibit a Hamiltonian characterization for the optimal strategy that can b...
finance
4,451
A Model of Market Limit Orders By Stochastic PDE's, Parameter Estimation, and Investment Optimization
q-fin.TR
In this paper we introduce a completely continuous and time-variate model of the evolution of market limit orders based on the existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the solutions to a type of stochastic partial differential equations obtained in Zheng and Sowers (2012). In contrary to several models proposed and res...
finance
4,452
Market Liquidity and Convexity of Order Book (Evidence From China)
q-fin.TR
Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the high-frequency data of each stock included in the SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange)...
finance
4,453
Les réservations et les suspensions de cotation sont-elles un frein à l'efficience informationnelle des marchés ?
q-fin.TR
The use of the trading halts is a practice common to all markets. However, the advantages and the disadvantages of the measurements are regularly discussed. The partisans think that the trading suspensions or the price limits make it possible to the investors to have time to react to the new information. The detractors...
finance
4,454
Market Impact with Autocorrelated Order Flow under Perfect Competition
q-fin.TR
Our goal in this paper is to study the market impact in a market in which the order flow is autocorrelated. We build a model which explains qualitatively and quantitatively the empirical facts observed so far concerning market impact. We define different notions of market impact, and show how they lead to the different...
finance
4,455
Trust in foreseeing neighbours - a novel threshold model of financial market
q-fin.TR
The three-state agent-based 2D model of financial markets in the version proposed by Giulia Iori in 2002 has been herein extended. We have introduced the increase of herding behaviour by modelling the altering trust of an agent in his nearest neighbours. The trust increases if the neighbour has foreseen the price chang...
finance
4,456
Information Transmission Between Financial Markets in Chicago and New York
q-fin.TR
High frequency trading has led to widespread efforts to reduce information propagation delays between physically distant exchanges. Using relativistically correct millisecond-resolution tick data, we document a 3-millisecond decrease in one-way communication time between the Chicago and New York areas that has occurred...
finance
4,457
Dynamical Trading Mechanism in Limit Order Markets
q-fin.TR
This work's purpose is to understand the dynamics of limit order books in order-driven markets. We try to illustrate a dynamical trading mechanism attached to the microstructure of limit order markets. We capture the iterative nature of trading processes, which is critical in the dynamics of bid-ask pairs and the switc...
finance
4,458
High-frequency market-making for multi-dimensional Markov processes
q-fin.TR
In this paper we complete and extend our previous work on stochastic control applied to high frequency market-making with inventory constraints and directional bets. Our new model admits several state variables (e.g. market spread, stochastic volatility and intensities of market orders) provided the full system is Mark...
finance
4,459
Permanent market impact can be nonlinear
q-fin.TR
There are two schools of thought regarding market impact modeling. On the one hand, seminal papers by Almgren and Chriss introduced a decomposition between a permanent market impact and a temporary (or instantaneous) market impact. This decomposition is used by most practitioners in execution models. On the other hand,...
finance
4,460
A market impact game under transient price impact
q-fin.TR
We consider a Nash equilibrium between two high-frequency traders in a simple market impact model with transient price impact and additional quadratic transaction costs. Extending a result by Sch\"oneborn (2008), we prove existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium and show that for small transaction costs the hig...
finance
4,461
A theoretical framework for trading experiments
q-fin.TR
A general framework is suggested to describe human decision making in a certain class of experiments performed in a trading laboratory. We are in particular interested in discerning between two different moods, or states of the investors, corresponding to investors using fundamental investment strategies, technical ana...
finance
4,462
VWAP execution and guaranteed VWAP
q-fin.TR
Optimal liquidation using VWAP strategies has been considered in the literature, though never in the presence of permanent market impact and only rarely with execution costs. Moreover, only VWAP strategies have been studied and the pricing of guaranteed VWAP contracts has never been addressed. In this article, we devel...
finance
4,463
Futures market efficiency diagnostics via temporal two-point correlations. Russian market case study
q-fin.TR
Using a two-point correlation technique, we study emergence of market efficiency in the emergent Russian futures market by focusing on lagged correlations. The correlation strength of leader-follower effects in the lagged inter-market correlations on the hourly time frame is seen to be significant initially (2009-2011)...
finance
4,464
Characterizing financial crisis by means of the three states random field Ising model
q-fin.TR
We propose a formula of time-series prediction by means of three states random field Ising model (RFIM). At the economic crisis due to disasters or international disputes, the stock price suddenly drops. The macroscopic phenomena should be explained from the corresponding microscopic view point because there are existi...
finance
4,465
A Pre-Trade Algorithmic Trading Model under Given Volume Measures and Generic Price Dynamics (GVM-GPD)
q-fin.TR
We make several improvements to the mean-variance framework for optimal pre-trade algorithmic execution, by working with volume measures and generic price dynamics. Volume measures are the continuum analogies for discrete volume profiles commonly implemented in the execution industry. Execution then becomes an absolute...
finance
4,466
Agent-Based Stock Market Model with Endogenous Agents' Impact
q-fin.TR
The three-state agent-based 2D model of financial markets as proposed by Giulia Iori has been extended by introducing increasing trust in the correctly predicting agents, a more realistic consultation procedure as well as a formal validation mechanism. This paper shows that such a model correctly reproduces the three f...
finance
4,467
Optimal Order Scheduling for Deterministic Liquidity Patterns
q-fin.TR
We consider a broker who has to place a large order which consumes a sizable part of average daily trading volume. The broker's aim is thus to minimize execution costs he incurs from the adverse impact of his trades on market prices. By contrast to the previous literature, see, e.g., Obizhaeva and Wang (2005), Predoiu,...
finance
4,468
Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets
q-fin.TR
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov proc...
finance
4,469
Nash equilibrium for coupling of CO2 allowances and electricity markets
q-fin.TR
In this note, we present an existence result of a Nash equilibrium between electricity producers selling their production on an electricity market and buying CO2 emission allowances on an auction carbon market. The producers' strategies integrate the coupling of the two markets via the cost functions of the electricity...
finance
4,470
Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market
q-fin.TR
This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay for information before they trade. By paying for the information they behave as ...
finance
4,471
Option pricing and hedging with execution costs and market impact
q-fin.TR
This article considers the pricing and hedging of a call option when liquidity matters, that is, either for a large nominal or for an illiquid underlying asset. In practice, as opposed to the classical assumptions of a price-taking agent in a frictionless market, traders cannot be perfectly hedged because of execution ...
finance
4,472
Trade arrival dynamics and quote imbalance in a limit order book
q-fin.TR
We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote imbalance at the top of the limit order book. We propose a stochastic model in an ...
finance
4,473
The Self-Financing Equation in High Frequency Markets
q-fin.TR
High Frequency Trading (HFT) represents an ever growing proportion of all financial transactions as most markets have now switched to electronic order book systems. The main goal of the paper is to propose continuous time equations which generalize the self-financing relationships of frictionless markets to electronic ...
finance
4,474
Coupled mode theory of stock price formation
q-fin.TR
We develop a theory of bid and ask price dynamics where the two prices form due to interaction of buy and sell orders. In this model the two prices are represented by eigenvalues of a 2x2 price operator corresponding to "bid" and "ask" eigenstates. Matrix elements of price operator fluctuate in time which results in ph...
finance
4,475
A Global Game with Heterogenous Priors
q-fin.TR
This paper relaxes the common prior assumption in the public and private information game of Morris and Shin (2000, 2004). For the generalized game, where the agent's prior expectations are heterogenous, it derives a sharp condition for the emergence of unique/multiple equilibria. This condition indicates that unique e...
finance
4,476
When Finance Meets Physics: The Impact of the Speed of Light on Financial Markets and their Regulation
q-fin.TR
Modern physics has demonstrated that matter behaves very differently as it approaches the speed of light. This paper explores the implications of modern physics to the operation and regulation of financial markets. Information cannot move faster than the speed of light. The geographic separation of market centers means...
finance
4,477
Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance
q-fin.TR
In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For example, if the market order flow is assumed to follow a nearly unstable Hawkes pr...
finance
4,478
Rock around the Clock: An Agent-Based Model of Low- and High-Frequency Trading
q-fin.TR
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronol...
finance
4,479
On Simulation of Various Effects in Consolidated Order Book
q-fin.TR
This paper consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to empirical analysis of consolidated order book (COB) for the index RTS futures. In the second part we consider Poissonian multi--agent model of the COB. By varying parameters of different groups of agents submitting orders to the book we are able to model va...
finance
4,480
Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading
q-fin.TR
Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory...
finance
4,481
Finding informed traders in futures and their inderlying assets in intraday trading
q-fin.TR
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the...
finance
4,482
A reinforcement learning extension to the Almgren-Chriss model for optimal trade execution
q-fin.TR
Reinforcement learning is explored as a candidate machine learning technique to enhance existing analytical solutions for optimal trade execution with elements from the market microstructure. Given a volume-to-trade, fixed time horizon and discrete trading periods, the aim is to adapt a given volume trajectory such tha...
finance
4,483
Detecting informed activities in European-style option tradings
q-fin.TR
We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed trader activities in European-style options and their underlying asset. The regression model (9) with moving average component was written. Being added to it ARMA-process for log-price differences of underlying asset, the generalized model is written as Vector AR...
finance
4,484
Dynamic optimal execution in a mixed-market-impact Hawkes price model
q-fin.TR
We study a linear price impact model including other liquidity takers, whose flow of orders either follows a Poisson or a Hawkes process. The optimal execution problem is solved explicitly in this context, and the closed-formula optimal strategy describes in particular how one should react to the orders of other trader...
finance
4,485
Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing
q-fin.TR
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior...
finance
4,486
Modeling FX market activity around macroeconomic news: a Hawkes process approach
q-fin.TR
We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is ...
finance
4,487
Does the "uptick rule" stabilize the stock market? Insights from Adaptive Rational Equilibrium Dynamics
q-fin.TR
This paper investigates the effects of the "uptick rule" (a short selling regulation formally known as rule 10a-1) by means of a simple stock market model, based on the ARED (adaptive rational equilibrium dynamics) modeling framework, where heterogeneous and adaptive beliefs on the future prices of a risky asset were f...
finance
4,488
One-level limit order book models with memory and variable spread
q-fin.TR
We propose a new model for the level I of a Limit Order Book (LOB), which incorporates the information about the standing orders at the opposite side of the book after each price change and the arrivals of new orders within the spread. Our main result gives a diffusion approximation for the mid-price process. To illust...
finance
4,489
VWAP Execution as an Optimal Strategy
q-fin.TR
The volume weighted average price (VWAP) execution strategy is well known and widely used in practice. In this study, we explicitly introduce a trading volume process into the Almgren-Chriss model, which is a standard model for optimal execution. We then show that the VWAP strategy is the optimal execution strategy for...
finance
4,490
Design and Implementation of Schedule-Based Trading Strategies Based on Uncertainty Bands
q-fin.TR
We propose a design for schedule-based execution trading strategies based on uncertainty bands. This formulation: 1) simplifies strategy specification and implementation; 2) provides for flexible allocation among passive, opportunistic, aggressive, and dark pool crossing execution tactics; 3) allows for rapid enhanceme...
finance
4,491
On the design of sell-side limit and market order tactics
q-fin.TR
This article provides a novel framework to evaluate limit order tactics that highlights expected fill price, adverse price selection cost, and opportunity cost. We formulate the problem of optimal execution of market orders with nonlinear market impact, power law decay kernel, and stochastic and deterministic liquidity...
finance
4,492
Optimal Execution with Dynamic Order Flow Imbalance
q-fin.TR
We examine optimal execution models that take into account both market microstructure impact and informational costs. Informational footprint is related to order flow and is represented by the trader's influence on the flow imbalance process, while microstructure influence is captured by instantaneous price impact. We ...
finance
4,493
Optimal execution of ASR contracts with fixed notional
q-fin.TR
Be it for taking advantage of stock undervaluation or in order to distribute part of their profits to shareholders, firms may buy back their own shares. One of the way they proceed is by including Accelerated Share Repurchases (ASR) as part of their repurchase programs. In this article, we study the pricing and optimal...
finance
4,494
Hydrodynamic limit of order book dynamics
q-fin.TR
In this paper, we establish a fluid limit for a two--sided Markov order book model. Our main result states that in a certain asymptotic regime, a pair of measure-valued processes representing the "sell-side shape" and "buy-side shape" of an order book converges to a pair of deterministic measure-valued processes in a c...
finance
4,495
A fully consistent, minimal model for non-linear market impact
q-fin.TR
We propose a minimal theory of non-linear price impact based on a linear (latent) order book approximation, inspired by diffusion-reaction models and general arguments. Our framework allows one to compute the average price trajectory in the presence of a meta-order, that consistently generalizes previously proposed pro...
finance
4,496
Market impacts and the life cycle of investors orders
q-fin.TR
In this paper, we use a database of around 400,000 metaorders issued by investors and electronically traded on European markets in 2010 in order to study market impact at different scales. At the intraday scale we confirm a square root temporary impact in the daily participation, and we shed light on a duration facto...
finance
4,497
Beyond the square root: Evidence for logarithmic dependence of market impact on size and participation rate
q-fin.TR
We make an extensive empirical study of the market impact of large orders (metaorders) executed in the U.S. equity market between 2007 and 2009. We show that the square root market impact formula, which is widely used in the industry and supported by previous published research, provides a good fit only across about tw...
finance
4,498
A Million Metaorder Analysis of Market Impact on the Bitcoin
q-fin.TR
We present a thorough empirical analysis of market impact on the Bitcoin/USD exchange market using a complete dataset that allows us to reconstruct more than one million metaorders. We empirically confirm the "square-root law'' for market impact, which holds on four decades in spite of the quasi-absence of statistical ...
finance
4,499
Optimal execution with nonlinear transient market impact
q-fin.TR
We study the problem of the optimal execution of a large trade in the presence of nonlinear transient impact. We propose an approach based on homotopy analysis, whereby a well behaved initial strategy is continuously deformed to lower the expected execution cost. We find that the optimal solution is front loaded for co...
finance