Daily Papers

The EPIC-KITCHENS-100 Action Detection challenge evaluates whether a model can localize the start and end of each action in long untrimmed egocentric videos and assign the corresponding verb--noun action label. In this report, we formulate our submission as EgoAction (Egocentric Action Composition with Reliability-Aware Temporal Fusion), a unified decoupled detection and fusion pipeline. The pipeline uses EPIC-finetuned VideoMAE-L features, trains separate noun and verb temporal detectors with causal temporal modeling, composes action hypotheses from top noun--verb pairs, and introduces a confidence-adaptive boundary fusion rule at post-processing time. The key observation is that verb and noun streams often fail differently: verb scores are sensitive to motion transitions, whereas noun scores are sensitive to hand-object visibility and object clutter. A fixed arithmetic mean of their predicted boundaries can therefore amplify localization errors when one stream degenerates. We replace this hard-coded mean with Dynamic Weighted Fusion (DWF), which normalizes the maximum noun and verb classification confidences into proposal-wise boundary weights and linearly combines the two intervals. This lightweight tensor-only operator shifts boundary authority toward the more reliable stream while preserving the decoupled action scoring mechanism. Together with sliding-window inference, top-K noun--verb action composition, and class-wise Soft-NMS, EgoAction provides a compact and reproducible system for egocentric temporal action detection.

We present MAGI-1, a world model that generates videos by autoregressively predicting a sequence of video chunks, defined as fixed-length segments of consecutive frames. Trained to denoise per-chunk noise that increases monotonically over time, MAGI-1 enables causal temporal modeling and naturally supports streaming generation. It achieves strong performance on image-to-video (I2V) tasks conditioned on text instructions, providing high temporal consistency and scalability, which are made possible by several algorithmic innovations and a dedicated infrastructure stack. MAGI-1 facilitates controllable generation via chunk-wise prompting and supports real-time, memory-efficient deployment by maintaining constant peak inference cost, regardless of video length. The largest variant of MAGI-1 comprises 24 billion parameters and supports context lengths of up to 4 million tokens, demonstrating the scalability and robustness of our approach. The code and models are available at https://github.com/SandAI-org/MAGI-1 and https://github.com/SandAI-org/MagiAttention. The product can be accessed at https://sand.ai.

Continuous electroencephalography (EEG) emotion prediction aims to model the temporal evolution of human emotional states from EEG signals. Unlike conventional discrete emotion recognition, continuous prediction requires capturing long-range temporal dependencies and coherent emotional dynamics. However, existing methods mainly rely on point-wise regression and directly model noisy high-dimensional EEG features, limiting their ability to characterize continuous emotional evolution.To address these challenges, we propose EEGDancer, a dynamic emotional latent space learning framework for continuous EEG emotion prediction. The framework integrates vector-quantized representation learning, masked temporal modeling, and reinforcement learning-based trajectory optimization into a unified architecture.Specifically, a causal spatiotemporal Vector-Quantization Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) is designed to learn structured emotional prototypes and construct a discrete-continuous emotional latent space from EEG signals. Based on the learned latent representations, a Transformer-based masked dynamic modeling strategy captures long-range emotional dependencies and temporal evolution patterns. Furthermore, continuous emotion prediction is formulated as a sequential decision-making problem, and a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) framework is introduced to optimize emotional prediction trajectories at the sequence level instead of frame-wise local fitting.Extensive experiments on the SEED, SEED-IV, and Long-Term Naturalistic Emotion datasets demonstrate that EEGDancer consistently outperforms existing machine learning and deep learning methods. Ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of the proposed latent space and reinforcement learning-based trajectory optimization for modeling continuous EEG emotional dynamics.

Visual transformation reasoning (VTR) is a vital cognitive capability that empowers intelligent agents to understand dynamic scenes, model causal relationships, and predict future states, and thereby guiding actions and laying the foundation for advanced intelligent systems. However, existing benchmarks suffer from a sim-to-real gap, limited task complexity, and incomplete reasoning coverage, limiting their practical use in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce VisualTrans, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for VTR in real-world human-object interaction scenarios. VisualTrans encompasses 12 semantically diverse manipulation tasks and systematically evaluates three essential reasoning dimensions - spatial, procedural, and quantitative - through 6 well-defined subtask types. The benchmark features 472 high-quality question-answer pairs in various formats, including multiple-choice, open-ended counting, and target enumeration. We introduce a scalable data construction pipeline built upon first-person manipulation videos, which integrates task selection, image pair extraction, automated metadata annotation with large multimodal models, and structured question generation. Human verification ensures the final benchmark is both high-quality and interpretable. Evaluations of various state-of-the-art vision-language models show strong performance in static spatial tasks. However, they reveal notable shortcomings in dynamic, multi-step reasoning scenarios, particularly in areas like intermediate state recognition and transformation sequence planning. These findings highlight fundamental weaknesses in temporal modeling and causal reasoning, providing clear directions for future research aimed at developing more capable and generalizable VTR systems. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/WangYipu2002/VisualTrans.

Tokenizer, serving as a translator to map the intricate visual data into a compact latent space, lies at the core of visual generative models. Based on the finding that existing tokenizers are tailored to image or video inputs, this paper presents OmniTokenizer, a transformer-based tokenizer for joint image and video tokenization. OmniTokenizer is designed with a spatial-temporal decoupled architecture, which integrates window and causal attention for spatial and temporal modeling. To exploit the complementary nature of image and video data, we further propose a progressive training strategy, where OmniTokenizer is first trained on image data on a fixed resolution to develop the spatial encoding capacity and then jointly trained on image and video data on multiple resolutions to learn the temporal dynamics. OmniTokenizer, for the first time, handles both image and video inputs within a unified framework and proves the possibility of realizing their synergy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OmniTokenizer achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) reconstruction performance on various image and video datasets, e.g., 1.11 reconstruction FID on ImageNet and 42 reconstruction FVD on UCF-101, beating the previous SOTA methods by 13% and 26%, respectively. Additionally, we also show that when integrated with OmniTokenizer, both language model-based approaches and diffusion models can realize advanced visual synthesis performance, underscoring the superiority and versatility of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/FoundationVision/OmniTokenizer.

Causal representation learning (CRL) seeks to recover latent variables with identifiability guarantees, typically up to permutation and component-wise reparameterization under appropriate assumptions. However, identifiability does not imply interpretability: latent semantics are typically assigned post hoc by alignment with known ground-truth factors. This limitation is particularly acute in scientific time series, where underlying mechanisms are unknown and discovering interpretable structure is a primary goal. In contrast, scientific observations (such as residue-pair distances, climate indices, or process sensors) are inherently semantic, as they correspond to named physical quantities. This raises a key question: can the interpretability of observations be transferred to the identifiable latent space? We propose MOSAIC (Module discovery via Sparse Additive Identifiable Causal learning), a sparse temporal VAE that integrates temporal CRL identifiability with support recovery over observed variables. MOSAIC identifies latent variables via regime-conditioned temporal variation, and recovers for each latent a sparse set of associated observations through an additive decoder, yielding module-level interpretability. We show that ANOVA main-effect supports are identifiable under general smooth mixing functions, and provide finite-sample recovery guarantees for a tractable sparse-additive variant. Empirically, MOSAIC recovers domain-consistent variable groups across RNA molecular dynamics, solar wind, ENSO climate, the Tennessee Eastman process, and a synthetic tokamak benchmark, enabling interpretable discovery of latent mechanisms in scientific time series.

Real-world multivariate time series anomalies are rare and often unlabeled. Additionally, prevailing methods rely on increasingly complex architectures tuned to benchmarks, detecting only fragments of anomalous segments and overstating performance. In this paper, we introduce OracleAD, a simple and interpretable unsupervised framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. OracleAD encodes each variable's past sequence into a single causal embedding to jointly predict the present time point and reconstruct the input window, effectively modeling temporal dynamics. These embeddings then undergo a self-attention mechanism to project them into a shared latent space and capture spatial relationships. These relationships are not static, since they are modeled by a property that emerges from each variable's temporal dynamics. The projected embeddings are aligned to a Stable Latent Structure (SLS) representing normal-state relationships. Anomalies are identified using a dual scoring mechanism based on prediction error and deviation from the SLS, enabling fine-grained anomaly diagnosis at each time point and across individual variables. Since any noticeable SLS deviation originates from embeddings that violate the learned temporal causality of normal data, OracleAD directly pinpoints the root-cause variables at the embedding level. OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation protocols, while remaining interpretable through SLS.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Human conversation is organized by an implicit chain of thoughts that manifests as timed speech acts. Capturing this perceptual pathway is key to building natural full-duplex interactive systems. We introduce a framework that models this process as multi-level perception, and then reasons over conversational behaviors via a Graph-of-Thoughts (GoT). Our approach formalizes the intent-to-action pathway with a hierarchical labeling scheme, predicting high-level communicative intents and low-level speech acts to learn their causal and temporal dependencies. To train this system, we develop a high quality corpus that pairs controllable, event-rich dialogue data with human-annotated labels. The GoT framework structures streaming predictions as an evolving graph, enabling a transformer to forecast the next speech act, generate concise justifications for its decisions, and dynamically refine its reasoning. Experiments on both synthetic and real duplex dialogues show that the framework delivers robust behavior detection, produces interpretable reasoning chains, and establishes a foundation for benchmarking conversational reasoning in full duplex spoken dialogue systems.

In recent years, large language models have shown substantial potential in psychological support tasks. However, existing psychological counseling data mostly rely on single-turn question answering or short multi-turn dialogues, making it difficult to characterize how college students' psychological distress accumulates, interacts, and gradually evolves over long periods within campus life events. To address this issue, this paper proposes Psy-Chronicle, a structured data-generation framework for synthesizing long-horizon campus psychological counseling dialogues. We generate a semester-spanning temporal stress event graph to model the chronological order and evolutionary dependencies among campus stress events. Through interactive simulation between a student agent and a counselor agent, together with a structured memory integration mechanism, Psy-Chronicle generates long-horizon dialogues with continuity across counseling sessions. Based on Psy-Chronicle, we construct and open-source CPCD, a Chinese long-horizon dialogue dataset for college psychological counseling, containing 100 student profiles, 90,000 counseling dialogues. We further build CPCD-Bench to evaluate models' long-horizon campus counseling capabilities from three dimensions: session-level response, long-horizon memory recall, and temporal-causal reasoning. Experimental results show that CPCD effectively improves session-level response generation and long-horizon memory recall for models with the same base architecture. Meanwhile, improvements in temporal-causal reasoning remain limited, indicating that event-chain organization and causal explanation are key challenges in long-horizon psychological counseling modeling. The related code and data are available at: https://github.com/EdwinUSTB/Psy-Chronicle

Learning an agent model that behaves like humans-capable of jointly perceiving the environment, predicting the future, and taking actions from a first-person perspective-is a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Existing methods typically train separate models for these abilities, which fail to capture their intrinsic relationships and prevent them from learning from each other. Inspired by how humans learn through the perception-action loop, we propose EgoAgent, a unified agent model that simultaneously learns to represent, predict, and act within a single transformer. EgoAgent explicitly models the causal and temporal dependencies among these abilities by formulating the task as an interleaved sequence of states and actions. It further introduces a joint embedding-action-prediction architecture with temporally asymmetric predictor and observer branches, enabling synergistic optimization across all three capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations of EgoAgent on representative tasks such as image classification, egocentric future state prediction, and 3D human motion prediction demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and trained models will be publicly available at https://github.com/zju3dv/EgoAgent.

Human-human motion generation is essential for understanding humans as social beings. Current methods fall into two main categories: single-person-based methods and separate modeling-based methods. To delve into this field, we abstract the overall generation process into a general framework MetaMotion, which consists of two phases: temporal modeling and interaction mixing. For temporal modeling, the single-person-based methods concatenate two people into a single one directly, while the separate modeling-based methods skip the modeling of interaction sequences. The inadequate modeling described above resulted in sub-optimal performance and redundant model parameters. In this paper, we introduce TIMotion (Temporal and Interactive Modeling), an efficient and effective framework for human-human motion generation. Specifically, we first propose Causal Interactive Injection to model two separate sequences as a causal sequence leveraging the temporal and causal properties. Then we present Role-Evolving Scanning to adjust to the change in the active and passive roles throughout the interaction. Finally, to generate smoother and more rational motion, we design Localized Pattern Amplification to capture short-term motion patterns. Extensive experiments on InterHuman and InterX demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance. Project page: https://aigc-explorer.github.io/TIMotion-page/

Embodied Conversational Agents (ECAs) aim to emulate human face-to-face interaction through speech, gestures, and facial expressions. Current large language model (LLM)-based conversational agents lack embodiment and the expressive gestures essential for natural interaction. Existing solutions for ECAs often produce rigid, low-diversity motions, that are unsuitable for human-like interaction. Alternatively, generative methods for co-speech gesture synthesis yield natural body gestures but depend on future speech context and require long run-times. To bridge this gap, we present MIBURI, the first online, causal framework for generating expressive full-body gestures and facial expressions synchronized with real-time spoken dialogue. We employ body-part aware gesture codecs that encode hierarchical motion details into multi-level discrete tokens. These tokens are then autoregressively generated by a two-dimensional causal framework conditioned on LLM-based speech-text embeddings, modeling both temporal dynamics and part-level motion hierarchy in real time. Further, we introduce auxiliary objectives to encourage expressive and diverse gestures while preventing convergence to static poses. Comparative evaluations demonstrate that our causal and real-time approach produces natural and contextually aligned gestures against recent baselines. We urge the reader to explore demo videos on https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/MIBURI/.

Video Question Answering (VideoQA) task serves as a critical playground for evaluating whether foundation models can effectively perceive, understand, and reason about dynamic real-world scenarios. However, existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) struggle with simultaneously modeling spatial relationships within video frames and understanding the causal dynamics of temporal evolution on complex and reasoning-intensive VideoQA task. In this work, we equip MLLM with a comprehensive and extensible Video Toolkit, to enhance MLLM's spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities and ensure the harmony between the quantity and diversity of tools. To better control the tool invocation sequence and avoid toolchain shortcut issues, we propose a Spatiotemporal Reasoning Framework (STAR) that strategically schedules temporal and spatial tools, thereby progressively localizing the key area in the video. Our STAR framework enhances GPT-4o using lightweight tools, achieving an 8.2% gain on VideoMME and 4.6% on LongVideoBench. We believe that our proposed Video Toolkit and STAR framework make an important step towards building autonomous and intelligent video analysis assistants. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/fansunqi/VideoTool.

Commercial video generation systems such as Seedance2.0 and Veo3.1 have rapidly improved, strengthening the view that video generators may be evolving into "world simulators." Yet the community still lacks a benchmark that directly tests whether a model can reason about how an observed world should evolve over time. We introduce WorldReasonBench, which reframes video generation evaluation as world-state prediction: given an initial state and an action, can a model generate a future video whose state evolution remains physically, socially, logically, and informationally consistent? WorldReasonBench contains 436 curated test cases with structured ground-truth QA annotations spanning four reasoning dimensions and 22 subcategories. We evaluate generated videos with a human-aligned two-part methodology: Process-aware Reasoning Verification uses structured QA and reasoning-phase diagnostics to detect temporal and causal failures, while Multi-dimensional Quality Assessment scores reasoning quality, temporal consistency, and visual aesthetics for ranking and reward modeling. We further introduce WorldRewardBench, a preference benchmark with approximately 6K expert-annotated pairs over 1.4K videos, supporting pair-wise and point-wise reward-model evaluation. Across modern video generators, our results expose a persistent gap between visual plausibility and world reasoning: videos can look convincing while failing dynamics, causality, or information preservation. We will release our benchmarks and evaluation toolkit to support community research on genuinely world-aware video generation at https://github.com/UniX-AI-Lab/WorldReasonBench/.

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) is a crucial capability for video understanding models and plays a vital role in downstream tasks such as video browsing and editing. To effectively handle various tasks simultaneously and enable zero-shot prediction, there is a growing trend in employing video LLMs for VTG tasks. However, current video LLM-based methods rely exclusively on natural language generation, lacking the ability to model the clear structure inherent in videos, which restricts their effectiveness in tackling VTG tasks. To address this issue, this paper first formally introduces causal event modeling framework, which represents videos as sequences of events, and predict the current event using previous events, video inputs, and textural instructions. Each event consists of three components: timestamps, salient scores, and textual captions. We then propose a novel task-interleaved video LLM called TRACE to effectively implement the causal event modeling framework in practice. The TRACE processes visual frames, timestamps, salient scores, and text as distinct tasks, employing various encoders and decoding heads for each. Task tokens are arranged in an interleaved sequence according to the causal event modeling framework's formulation. Extensive experiments on various VTG tasks and datasets demonstrate the superior performance of TRACE compared to state-of-the-art video LLMs. Our model and code are available at https://github.com/gyxxyg/TRACE.

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next^1, next^2, next^3 chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

Human conversation involves continuous exchanges of speech and nonverbal cues such as head nods, gaze shifts, and facial expressions that convey attention and emotion. Modeling these bidirectional dynamics in 3D is essential for building expressive avatars and interactive robots. However, existing frameworks often treat talking and listening as independent processes or rely on non-causal full-sequence modeling, hindering temporal coherence across turns. We present TIMAR (Turn-level Interleaved Masked AutoRegression), a causal framework for 3D conversational head generation that models dialogue as interleaved audio-visual contexts. It fuses multimodal information within each turn and applies turn-level causal attention to accumulate conversational history, while a lightweight diffusion head predicts continuous 3D head dynamics that captures both coordination and expressive variability. Experiments on the DualTalk benchmark show that TIMAR reduces Fréchet Distance and MSE by 15-30% on the test set, and achieves similar gains on out-of-distribution data. The source code will be released in the GitHub repository https://github.com/CoderChen01/towards-seamleass-interaction.

Traditional Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) face increasing bottlenecks in performance and efficiency, often struggling with generalization and long-sequence modeling. Inspired by the scaling success of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose Generative Ranking for Ads at Baidu (GRAB), an end-to-end generative framework for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. GRAB integrates a novel Causal Action-aware Multi-channel Attention (CamA) mechanism to effectively capture temporal dynamics and specific action signals within user behavior sequences. Full-scale online deployment demonstrates that GRAB significantly outperforms established DLRMs, delivering a 3.05% increase in revenue and a 3.49% rise in CTR. Furthermore, the model demonstrates desirable scaling behavior: its expressive power shows a monotonic and approximately linear improvement as longer interaction sequences are utilized.

Clinical case formulation organizes patient symptoms and psychosocial factors into causal models, often using the 5P framework. However, constructing such graphs from therapy transcripts is time consuming and varies across clinicians. We present InsightFlow, an LLM based approach that automatically generates 5P aligned causal graphs from patient-therapist dialogues. Using 46 psychotherapy intake transcripts annotated by clinical experts, we evaluate LLM generated graphs against human formulations using structural (NetSimile), semantic (embedding similarity), and expert rated clinical criteria. The generated graphs show structural similarity comparable to inter annotator agreement and high semantic alignment with human graphs. Expert evaluations rate the outputs as moderately complete, consistent, and clinically useful. While LLM graphs tend to form more interconnected structures compared to the chain like patterns of human graphs, overall complexity and content coverage are similar. These results suggest that LLMs can produce clinically meaningful case formulation graphs within the natural variability of expert practice. InsightFlow highlights the potential of automated causal modeling to augment clinical workflows, with future work needed to improve temporal reasoning and reduce redundancy.

Understanding causal event relationships and achieving fine-grained temporal grounding in videos remain challenging for vision-language models. Existing methods either compress video tokens to reduce temporal resolution, or treat videos as unsegmented streams, which obscures fine-grained event boundaries and limits the modeling of causal dependencies. We propose TEMPURA (Temporal Event Masked Prediction and Understanding for Reasoning in Action), a two-stage training framework that enhances video temporal understanding. TEMPURA first applies masked event prediction reasoning to reconstruct missing events and generate step-by-step causal explanations from dense event annotations, drawing inspiration from effective infilling techniques. TEMPURA then learns to perform video segmentation and dense captioning to decompose videos into non-overlapping events with detailed, timestamp-aligned descriptions. We train TEMPURA on VER, a large-scale dataset curated by us that comprises 1M training instances and 500K videos with temporally aligned event descriptions and structured reasoning steps. Experiments on temporal grounding and highlight detection benchmarks demonstrate that TEMPURA outperforms strong baseline models, confirming that integrating causal reasoning with fine-grained temporal segmentation leads to improved video understanding.

World models for interactive video generation have largely focused on single-agent settings, where future observations are generated from a single control signal. However, many generated environments require multi-agent interaction: multiple players, robots, or embodied agents act simultaneously within a shared space. Scaling world models to such settings requires a principled multi-agent design: agents should remain independently controllable, permutation-symmetric, and support efficient inference while maintaining consistency across time and perspectives. In this paper, we present our generative multi-agent world model for interactive simulation. It introduces Simplex Rotary Agent Encoding, a parameter-free extension of 3D RoPE that represents agents as vertices of a regular simplex in rotary angle space. This gives each agent a distinct phase while making all agents permutation-equivalent, enabling scalable agent identity without learned per-slot identities or a fixed agent ordering. To avoid dense all-to-all attention across agents, we further propose Sparse Hub Attention, where learnable hub tokens mediate token interaction across agents, reducing cross-agent attention cost from quadratic to linear in the number of agents. For real-time rollout, we distill a full-context diffusion teacher into a causal student that generates temporal blocks sequentially with KV caching, enabling action-responsive generation at 24 FPS. Experiments in multiplayer virtual environments show that our model improves video fidelity, action controllability, and inter-agent consistency over slot-based and dense-attention baselines, while generalizing from two to four players without additional training.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Recent language model (LM) advancements have showcased impressive zero-shot voice conversion (VC) performance. However, existing LM-based VC models usually apply offline conversion from source semantics to acoustic features, demanding the complete source speech, and limiting their deployment to real-time applications. In this paper, we introduce StreamVoice, a novel streaming LM-based model for zero-shot VC, facilitating real-time conversion given arbitrary speaker prompts and source speech. Specifically, to enable streaming capability, StreamVoice employs a fully causal context-aware LM with a temporal-independent acoustic predictor, while alternately processing semantic and acoustic features at each time step of autoregression which eliminates the dependence on complete source speech. To address the potential performance degradation from the incomplete context in streaming processing, we enhance the context-awareness of the LM through two strategies: 1) teacher-guided context foresight, using a teacher model to summarize the present and future semantic context during training to guide the model's forecasting for missing context; 2) semantic masking strategy, promoting acoustic prediction from preceding corrupted semantic and acoustic input, enhancing context-learning ability. Notably, StreamVoice is the first LM-based streaming zero-shot VC model without any future look-ahead. Experimental results demonstrate StreamVoice's streaming conversion capability while maintaining zero-shot performance comparable to non-streaming VC systems.

Recent visual generation models have made major progress in photorealism, typography, instruction following, and interactive editing, yet they still struggle with spatial reasoning, persistent state, long-horizon consistency, and causal understanding. We argue that the field should move beyond appearance synthesis toward intelligent visual generation: plausible visuals grounded in structure, dynamics, domain knowledge, and causal relations. To frame this shift, we introduce a five-level taxonomy: Atomic Generation, Conditional Generation, In-Context Generation, Agentic Generation, and World-Modeling Generation, progressing from passive renderers to interactive, agentic, world-aware generators. We analyze key technical drivers, including flow matching, unified understanding-and-generation models, improved visual representations, post-training, reward modeling, data curation, synthetic data distillation, and sampling acceleration. We further show that current evaluations often overestimate progress by emphasizing perceptual quality while missing structural, temporal, and causal failures. By combining benchmark review, in-the-wild stress tests, and expert-constrained case studies, this roadmap offers a capability-centered lens for understanding, evaluating, and advancing the next generation of intelligent visual generation systems.

Image generation models now produce high-quality static images, yet their ability to represent how a visual world changes over time remains poorly understood. Practical workflows such as storyboarding, step-by-step illustration, reference-guided editing, and video previsualization require models to preserve identities, objects, spatial relations, and causal order across multiple visual states. Existing evaluations largely measure single-image correctness, compositional alignment, or video quality, leaving open whether an image model can coherently imagine a temporally ordered process. We introduce ImageTime, a diagnostic benchmark that uses spatiotemporal consistency as a behavioral probe of visual world modeling in image generation. Given an action instruction, and optionally a reference image specifying the initial state, a model must generate one image containing four ordered key states: initial state, action onset, transition state, and final state. This four-keyframe protocol is more temporally demanding than single-image generation while avoiding the confounds of dense video dynamics. ImageTime organizes tasks with a progressive capability hierarchy and decomposes each scenario into stage-wise state predicates, cross-frame temporal constraints, and forbidden causal violations. GPT-5.5 scores all generated images under a structured VLM-as-judge protocol, producing interpretable capability scores, diagnostic subscores, and failure labels. Through multi-family benchmarking, ImageTime reveals where current image generation systems succeed, fail, and drift when asked to maintain coherent visual world states over time.

Recent advances in video generation have been dominated by diffusion and flow-matching models, which produce high-quality results but remain computationally intensive and difficult to scale. In this work, we introduce VideoAR, the first large-scale Visual Autoregressive (VAR) framework for video generation that combines multi-scale next-frame prediction with autoregressive modeling. VideoAR disentangles spatial and temporal dependencies by integrating intra-frame VAR modeling with causal next-frame prediction, supported by a 3D multi-scale tokenizer that efficiently encodes spatio-temporal dynamics. To improve long-term consistency, we propose Multi-scale Temporal RoPE, Cross-Frame Error Correction, and Random Frame Mask, which collectively mitigate error propagation and stabilize temporal coherence. Our multi-stage pretraining pipeline progressively aligns spatial and temporal learning across increasing resolutions and durations. Empirically, VideoAR achieves new state-of-the-art results among autoregressive models, improving FVD on UCF-101 from 99.5 to 88.6 while reducing inference steps by over 10x, and reaching a VBench score of 81.74-competitive with diffusion-based models an order of magnitude larger. These results demonstrate that VideoAR narrows the performance gap between autoregressive and diffusion paradigms, offering a scalable, efficient, and temporally consistent foundation for future video generation research.

We present DPDFNet, a causal single-channel speech enhancement model that extends DeepFilterNet2 architecture with dual-path blocks in the encoder, strengthening long-range temporal and cross-band modeling while preserving the original enhancement framework. In addition, we demonstrate that adding a loss component to mitigate over-attenuation in the enhanced speech, combined with a fine-tuning phase tailored for "always-on" applications, leads to substantial improvements in overall model performance. To compare our proposed architecture with a variety of causal open-source models, we created a new evaluation set comprising long, low-SNR recordings in 12 languages across everyday noise scenarios, better reflecting real-world conditions than commonly used benchmarks. On this evaluation set, DPDFNet delivers superior performance to other causal open-source models, including some that are substantially larger and more computationally demanding. We also propose an holistic metric named PRISM, a composite, scale-normalized aggregate of intrusive and non-intrusive metrics, which demonstrates clear scalability with the number of dual-path blocks. We further demonstrate on-device feasibility by deploying DPDFNet on Ceva-NeuPro-Nano edge NPUs. Results indicate that DPDFNet-4, our second-largest model, achieves real-time performance on NPN32 and runs even faster on NPN64, confirming that state-of-the-art quality can be sustained within strict embedded power and latency constraints.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Multivariate time series data typically comprises two distinct modalities: variable semantics and sampled numerical observations. Traditional time series models treat variables as anonymous statistical signals, overlooking the rich semantic information embedded in variable names and data descriptions. However, these textual descriptors often encode critical domain knowledge that is essential for robust and interpretable modeling. Here we present TimeMKG, a multimodal causal reasoning framework that elevates time series modeling from low-level signal processing to knowledge informed inference. TimeMKG employs large language models to interpret variable semantics and constructs structured Multivariate Knowledge Graphs that capture inter-variable relationships. A dual-modality encoder separately models the semantic prompts, generated from knowledge graph triplets, and the statistical patterns from historical time series. Cross-modality attention aligns and fuses these representations at the variable level, injecting causal priors into downstream tasks such as forecasting and classification, providing explicit and interpretable priors to guide model reasoning. The experiment in diverse datasets demonstrates that incorporating variable-level knowledge significantly improves both predictive performance and generalization.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

Autoregressive video diffusion models hold promise for world simulation but are vulnerable to exposure bias arising from the train-test mismatch. While recent works address this via post-training, they typically rely on a bidirectional teacher model or online discriminator. To achieve an end-to-end solution, we introduce Resampling Forcing, a teacher-free framework that enables training autoregressive video models from scratch and at scale. Central to our approach is a self-resampling scheme that simulates inference-time model errors on history frames during training. Conditioned on these degraded histories, a sparse causal mask enforces temporal causality while enabling parallel training with frame-level diffusion loss. To facilitate efficient long-horizon generation, we further introduce history routing, a parameter-free mechanism that dynamically retrieves the top-k most relevant history frames for each query. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves performance comparable to distillation-based baselines while exhibiting superior temporal consistency on longer videos owing to native-length training.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

Human understanding of video dynamics is typically grounded in a structured mental representation of entities, actions, and temporal relations, rather than relying solely on immediate deductive reasoning. In contrast, existing Video-LLMs largely depend on unstructured video reasoning, where critical visual evidence is embedded in verbose textual descriptions and temporal causality is often weakly modeled. This leads to inefficient processes and fragile causal inference. To bridge this cognitive gap, we propose constructing a compact representation of salient events and their causal relationships, which we name Structured Event Facts, prior to the reasoning stage. This structured prior serves as an explicit constraint to promote concise and causally grounded reasoning, while also making intermediate evidence easier to verify. To effectively train models on such structured facts, we introduce CausalFact-60K and a four-stage training pipeline comprising facts alignment, format warm-start, thinking warm-start, and reinforcement learning-based post-training. During RL stage, we find that this framework introduces competing objectives, as structural completeness and causal fidelity must be balanced against reasoning length, making it difficult to optimize. We address this challenge by formulating the optimization as a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) problem and explicitly optimizing toward the Pareto-Frontier to balance these trade-offs. As a result, we introduce Factum-4B, which yields more reliable reasoning and delivers stronger performance on challenging video understanding tasks requiring fine-grained temporal inference.

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to model time series data. These capabilities can be partly explained if LLMs understand basic time series concepts. However, our knowledge of what these models understand about time series data remains relatively limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSeriesExam, a configurable and scalable multiple-choice question exam designed to assess LLMs across five core time series understanding categories: pattern recognition, noise understanding, similarity analysis, anomaly detection, and causality analysis. TimeSeriesExam comprises of over 700 questions, procedurally generated using 104 carefully curated templates and iteratively refined to balance difficulty and their ability to discriminate good from bad models. We test 7 state-of-the-art LLMs on the TimeSeriesExam and provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their time series understanding abilities. Our results suggest that closed-source models such as GPT-4 and Gemini understand simple time series concepts significantly better than their open-source counterparts, while all models struggle with complex concepts such as causality analysis. We believe that the ability to programatically generate questions is fundamental to assessing and improving LLM's ability to understand and reason about time series data.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Pairwise dependence measures such as correlation and causality are fundamental to temporal data mining, yet there is still no principled and robust way to quantify dependence between heterogeneous data types, especially between continuous time series and discrete temporal event sequences. Existing approaches rely on ad hoc transformations or mutual-information estimators that are highly sensitive to quantization, repeated values, and event redundancy, leading to biased or unstable results in practice. We propose a nonparametric mutual information estimator that directly measures the dependence between time series and event sequences without data transformation, learning, or ad hoc discretization. Our method models the continuous-discrete duality of real-world time series to handle quantization and repeated-value artifacts and introduces a latent event clustering strategy to mitigate bias from event co-occurrence and redundancy. Together, these yield a robust and unified framework that bridges discrete and continuous mutual information. We evaluate the proposed estimator on four representative tasks: discrete-continuous time-delayed mutual information for causality analysis, global and local temporal repetition discovery, discrete covariate selection for time series forecasting, and continuous feature selection for classification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show consistent improvements over existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, positioning our approach as a general-purpose dependence operator for heterogeneous temporal data, similar to Pearson correlation for homogeneous time series. Code available at: https://github.com/HaojiHu/Multimodal-Temporal-Data-Quantification

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Temporal distribution shift (TDS) erodes the long-term accuracy of recommender systems, yet industrial practice still relies on periodic incremental training, which struggles to capture both stable and transient patterns. Existing approaches such as invariant learning and self-supervised learning offer partial solutions but often suffer from unstable temporal generalization, representation collapse, or inefficient data utilization. To address these limitations, we propose ELBO_TDS, a probabilistic framework that integrates seamlessly into industry-scale incremental learning pipelines. First, we identify key shifting factors through statistical analysis of real-world production data and design a simple yet effective data augmentation strategy that resamples these time-varying factors to extend the training support. Second, to harness the benefits of this extended distribution while preventing representation collapse, we model the temporal recommendation scenario using a causal graph and derive a self-supervised variational objective, ELBO_TDS, grounded in the causal structure. Extensive experiments supported by both theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrate that our method achieves superior temporal generalization, yielding a 2.33\% uplift in GMV per user and has been successfully deployed in Shopee Product Search. Code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ELBO4TDS.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

The recent rapid advancement of Text-to-Video (T2V) generation technologies are engaging the trained models with more world model ability, making the existing benchmarks increasingly insufficient to evaluate state-of-the-art T2V models. First, current evaluation dimensions, such as per-frame aesthetic quality and temporal consistency, are no longer able to differentiate state-of-the-art T2V models. Second, event-level temporal causality-an essential property that differentiates videos from other modalities-remains largely unexplored. Third, existing benchmarks lack a systematic assessment of world knowledge, which are essential capabilities for building world models. To address these issues, we introduce VideoVerse, a comprehensive benchmark focusing on evaluating whether the current T2V model could understand complex temporal causality and world knowledge to synthesize videos. We collect representative videos across diverse domains and extract their event-level descriptions with inherent temporal causality, which are then rewritten into text-to-video prompts by independent annotators. For each prompt, we design ten evaluation dimensions covering dynamic and static properties, resulting in 300 prompts, 815 events, and 793 evaluation questions. Consequently, a human preference-aligned QA-based evaluation pipeline is developed by using modern vision-language models to systematically benchmark leading open- and closed-source T2V systems, revealing the current gap between T2V models and desired world modeling abilities.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. But generating temporal consistent long videos is still challenging. A majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate long videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on last frames of previous clip. However, existing approaches all involve bidirectional computations, which restricts the receptive context of each autoregression step, and results in the model lacking long-term dependencies. Inspired from the huge success of large language models (LLMs) and following GPT (generative pre-trained transformer), we bring causal (i.e., unidirectional) generation into VDMs, and use past frames as prompt to generate future frames. For Causal Generation, we introduce causal temporal attention into VDM, which forces each generated frame to depend on its previous frames. For Frame as Prompt, we inject the conditional frames by concatenating them with noisy frames (frames to be generated) along the temporal axis. Consequently, we present Video Diffusion GPT (ViD-GPT). Based on the two key designs, in each autoregression step, it is able to acquire long-term context from prompting frames concatenated by all previously generated frames. Additionally, we bring the kv-cache mechanism to VDMs, which eliminates the redundant computation from overlapped frames, significantly boosting the inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our ViD-GPT achieves state-of-the-art performance both quantitatively and qualitatively on long video generation. Code will be available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/Causal-VideoGen.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

The extraction of invariant causal relationships from time series data with environmental attributes is critical for robust decision-making in domains such as climate science and environmental monitoring. However, existing methods either emphasize dynamic causal analysis without leveraging environmental contexts or focus on static invariant causal inference, leaving a gap in distributed temporal settings. In this paper, we propose Distributed Dynamic Invariant Causal Prediction in Time-series (DisDy-ICPT), a novel framework that learns dynamic causal relationships over time while mitigating spatial confounding variables without requiring data communication. We theoretically prove that DisDy-ICPT recovers stable causal predictors within a bounded number of communication rounds under standard sampling assumptions. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and environment-segmented real-world datasets show that DisDy-ICPT achieves superior predictive stability and accuracy compared to baseline methods A and B. Our approach offers promising applications in carbon monitoring and weather forecasting. Future work will extend DisDy-ICPT to online learning scenarios.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Dynamic graph learning methods have recently emerged as powerful tools for modelling relational data evolving through time. However, despite extensive benchmarking efforts, it remains unclear whether current Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) effectively capture core temporal patterns such as periodicity, cause-and-effect, and long-range dependencies. In this work, we introduce the Temporal Graph Reasoning Benchmark (T-GRAB), a comprehensive set of synthetic tasks designed to systematically probe the capabilities of TGNNs to reason across time. T-GRAB provides controlled, interpretable tasks that isolate key temporal skills: counting/memorizing periodic repetitions, inferring delayed causal effects, and capturing long-range dependencies over both spatial and temporal dimensions. We evaluate 11 temporal graph learning methods on these tasks, revealing fundamental shortcomings in their ability to generalize temporal patterns. Our findings offer actionable insights into the limitations of current models, highlight challenges hidden by traditional real-world benchmarks, and motivate the development of architectures with stronger temporal reasoning abilities. The code for T-GRAB can be found at: https://github.com/alirezadizaji/T-GRAB.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines requires corpora where ground truth is knowable, temporally structured, and cross-artifact properties that real-world datasets rarely provide cleanly. Existing resources such as the Enron corpus carry legal ambiguity, demographic skew, and no structured ground truth. Purely LLM-generated synthetic data solves the legal problem but introduces a subtler one: the generating model cannot be prevented from hallucinating facts that contradict themselves across documents.We present OrgForge, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework that enforces a strict physics-cognition boundary: a deterministic Python engine maintains a SimEvent ground truth bus; large language models generate only surface prose, constrained by validated proposals. An actor-local clock enforces causal timestamp correctness across all artifact types, eliminating the class of timeline inconsistencies that arise when timestamps are sampled independently per document. We formalize three graph-dynamic subsystems stress propagation via betweenness centrality, temporal edge-weight decay, and Dijkstra escalation routing that govern organizational behavior independently of any LLM. Running a configurable N-day simulation, OrgForge produces interleaved Slack threads, JIRA tickets, Confluence pages, Git pull requests, and emails, all traceable to a shared, immutable event log. We additionally describe a causal chain tracking subsystem that accumulates cross-artifact evidence graphs per incident, a hybrid reciprocal-rank-fusion recurrence detector for identifying repeated failure classes, and an inbound/outbound email engine that routes vendor alerts, customer complaints, and HR correspondence through gated causal chains with probabilistic drop simulation. OrgForge is available under the MIT license.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the observed variables, by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between generated and observed data. An approximate learning criterion is proposed to scale the computational cost of the approach to linear complexity in the number of observations. The performance of CGNN is studied throughout three experiments. Firstly, CGNN is applied to cause-effect inference, where the task is to identify the best causal hypothesis out of Xrightarrow Y and Yrightarrow X. Secondly, CGNN is applied to the problem of identifying v-structures and conditional independences. Thirdly, CGNN is applied to multivariate functional causal modeling: given a skeleton describing the direct dependences in a set of random variables X = [X_1, ldots, X_d], CGNN orients the edges in the skeleton to uncover the directed acyclic causal graph describing the causal structure of the random variables. On all three tasks, CGNN is extensively assessed on both artificial and real-world data, comparing favorably to the state-of-the-art. Finally, CGNN is extended to handle the case of confounders, where latent variables are involved in the overall causal model.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Temporal knowledge graphs represent temporal facts (s,p,o,tau) relating a subject s and an object o via a relation label p at time tau, where tau could be a time point or time interval. Temporal knowledge graphs may exhibit static temporal patterns at distinct points in time and dynamic temporal patterns between different timestamps. In order to learn a rich set of static and dynamic temporal patterns and apply them for inference, several embedding approaches have been suggested in the literature. However, as most of them resort to single underlying embedding spaces, their capability to model all kinds of temporal patterns was severely limited by having to adhere to the geometric property of their one embedding space. We lift this limitation by an embedding approach that maps temporal facts into a product space of several heterogeneous geometric subspaces with distinct geometric properties, i.e.\ Complex, Dual, and Split-complex spaces. In addition, we propose a temporal-geometric attention mechanism to integrate information from different geometric subspaces conveniently according to the captured relational and temporal information. Experimental results on standard temporal benchmark datasets favorably evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art models.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with σ-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook important statistical pitfalls, such as Simpson's paradox or selection bias. This oversight limits the applicability of LLMs in the real world. To address these limitations, we propose CausalPitfalls, a comprehensive benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the capability of LLMs in overcoming common causal inference pitfalls. Our benchmark features structured challenges across multiple difficulty levels, each paired with grading rubrics. This approach allows us to quantitatively measure both causal reasoning capabilities and the reliability of LLMs' responses. We evaluate models using two protocols: (1) direct prompting, which assesses intrinsic causal reasoning, and (2) code-assisted prompting, where models generate executable code for explicit statistical analysis. Additionally, we validate the effectiveness of this judge by comparing its scoring with assessments from human experts. Our results reveal significant limitations in current LLMs when performing statistical causal inference. The CausalPitfalls benchmark provides essential guidance and quantitative metrics to advance the development of trustworthy causal reasoning systems.

Recent advances in multimodal time series learning underscore a paradigm shift from analytics centered on basic patterns toward advanced time series understanding and reasoning. However, existing multimodal time series datasets mostly remain at the level of surface alignment and question answering, without reaching the depth of genuine reasoning. The absence of well-defined tasks that genuinely require time series reasoning, along with the scarcity of high-quality data, has limited progress in building practical time series reasoning models (TSRMs). To this end, we introduce Time Series Reasoning Suite (TSR-Suite), which formalizes four atomic tasks that span three fundamental capabilities for reasoning with time series: (1) perception, acquired through scenario understanding and causality discovery; (2) extrapolation, realized via event-aware forecasting; and (3) decision-making, developed through deliberation over perception and extrapolation. TSR-Suite is the first comprehensive time series reasoning suite that supports not only thorough evaluation but also the data pipeline and training of TSRMs. It contains more than 23K samples, of which 2.3K are carefully curated through a human-guided hierarchical annotation process. Building on this foundation, we introduce TimeOmni-1, the first unified reasoning model designed to address diverse real-world problems demanding time series reasoning. The model is trained in multiple stages, integrating a mixture of task scenarios, novel reward functions, and tailored optimizations. Experiments show that TimeOmni-1 delivers strong out-of-distribution generalization across all tasks and achieves a high rate of valid responses. It significantly improves causality discovery accuracy (64.0% vs. 35.9% with GPT-4.1) and raises the valid response rate by over 6% compared to GPT-4.1 on the event-aware forecasting task.

Research community has witnessed substantial growth in the detection of mental health issues and their associated reasons from analysis of social media. We introduce a new dataset for Causal Analysis of Mental health issues in Social media posts (CAMS). Our contributions for causal analysis are two-fold: causal interpretation and causal categorization. We introduce an annotation schema for this task of causal analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of our schema on two different datasets: (i) crawling and annotating 3155 Reddit posts and (ii) re-annotating the publicly available SDCNL dataset of 1896 instances for interpretable causal analysis. We further combine these into the CAMS dataset and make this resource publicly available along with associated source code: https://github.com/drmuskangarg/CAMS. We present experimental results of models learned from CAMS dataset and demonstrate that a classic Logistic Regression model outperforms the next best (CNN-LSTM) model by 4.9\% accuracy.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

Complex systems are characterized by intricate interactions between entities that evolve dynamically over time. Accurate inference of these dynamic relationships is crucial for understanding and predicting system behavior. In this paper, we propose Regulatory Temporal Interaction Network Inference (RiTINI) for inferring time-varying interaction graphs in complex systems using a novel combination of space-and-time graph attentions and graph neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). RiTINI leverages time-lapse signals on a graph prior, as well as perturbations of signals at various nodes in order to effectively capture the dynamics of the underlying system. This approach is distinct from traditional causal inference networks, which are limited to inferring acyclic and static graphs. In contrast, RiTINI can infer cyclic, directed, and time-varying graphs, providing a more comprehensive and accurate representation of complex systems. The graph attention mechanism in RiTINI allows the model to adaptively focus on the most relevant interactions in time and space, while the graph neural ODEs enable continuous-time modeling of the system's dynamics. We evaluate RiTINI's performance on various simulated and real-world datasets, demonstrating its state-of-the-art capability in inferring interaction graphs compared to previous methods.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

We introduce a new paradigm for building large causal models (LCMs) that exploits the enormous potential latent in today's large language models (LLMs). We describe our ongoing experiments with an implemented system called DEMOCRITUS (Decentralized Extraction of Manifold Ontologies of Causal Relations Integrating Topos Universal Slices) aimed at building, organizing, and visualizing LCMs that span disparate domains extracted from carefully targeted textual queries to LLMs. DEMOCRITUS is methodologically distinct from traditional narrow domain and hypothesis centered causal inference that builds causal models from experiments that produce numerical data. A high-quality LLM is used to propose topics, generate causal questions, and extract plausible causal statements from a diverse range of domains. The technical challenge is then to take these isolated, fragmented, potentially ambiguous and possibly conflicting causal claims, and weave them into a coherent whole, converting them into relational causal triples and embedding them into a LCM. Addressing this technical challenge required inventing new categorical machine learning methods, which we can only briefly summarize in this paper, as it is focused more on the systems side of building DEMOCRITUS. We describe the implementation pipeline for DEMOCRITUS comprising of six modules, examine its computational cost profile to determine where the current bottlenecks in scaling the system to larger models. We describe the results of using DEMOCRITUS over a wide range of domains, spanning archaeology, biology, climate change, economics, medicine and technology. We discuss the limitations of the current DEMOCRITUS system, and outline directions for extending its capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs), despite their advanced linguistic capabilities, fundamentally lack an intuitive understanding of physical dynamics, which limits their effectiveness in real-world scenarios that require causal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce Causal World Model Induction (CWMI), a novel framework designed to embed an explicit model of causal physics within an LLM. Our approach incorporates a dedicated Causal Physics Module (CPM) and a new training objective called Causal Intervention Loss, encouraging the model to learn cause-and-effect relationships from multimodal data. By training the model to predict the outcomes of hypothetical interventions instead of merely capturing statistical correlations, CWMI develops a robust internal representation of physical laws. Experimental results show that CWMI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLMs on zero-shot physical reasoning tasks, including the PIQA benchmark and our newly proposed PhysiCa-Bench dataset. These findings demonstrate that inducing a causal world model is a critical step toward more reliable and generalizable AI systems.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

Understanding how the predictions of deep learning models are formed during the training process is crucial to improve model performance and fix model defects, especially when we need to investigate nontrivial training strategies such as active learning, and track the root cause of unexpected training results such as performance degeneration. In this work, we propose a time-travelling visual solution DeepVisualInsight (DVI), aiming to manifest the spatio-temporal causality while training a deep learning image classifier. The spatio-temporal causality demonstrates how the gradient-descent algorithm and various training data sampling techniques can influence and reshape the layout of learnt input representation and the classification boundaries in consecutive epochs. Such causality allows us to observe and analyze the whole learning process in the visible low dimensional space. Technically, we propose four spatial and temporal properties and design our visualization solution to satisfy them. These properties preserve the most important information when inverse-)projecting input samples between the visible low-dimensional and the invisible high-dimensional space, for causal analyses. Our extensive experiments show that, comparing to baseline approaches, we achieve the best visualization performance regarding the spatial/temporal properties and visualization efficiency. Moreover, our case study shows that our visual solution can well reflect the characteristics of various training scenarios, showing good potential of DVI as a debugging tool for analyzing deep learning training processes.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

Temporal graphs are widely used to model dynamic systems with time-varying interactions. In real-world scenarios, the underlying mechanisms of generating future interactions in dynamic systems are typically governed by a set of recurring substructures within the graph, known as temporal motifs. Despite the success and prevalence of current temporal graph neural networks (TGNN), it remains uncertain which temporal motifs are recognized as the significant indications that trigger a certain prediction from the model, which is a critical challenge for advancing the explainability and trustworthiness of current TGNNs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, called Temporal Motifs Explainer (TempME), which uncovers the most pivotal temporal motifs guiding the prediction of TGNNs. Derived from the information bottleneck principle, TempME extracts the most interaction-related motifs while minimizing the amount of contained information to preserve the sparsity and succinctness of the explanation. Events in the explanations generated by TempME are verified to be more spatiotemporally correlated than those of existing approaches, providing more understandable insights. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of TempME, with up to 8.21% increase in terms of explanation accuracy across six real-world datasets and up to 22.96% increase in boosting the prediction Average Precision of current TGNNs.

Quantifying the causal influence of input features within neural networks has become a topic of increasing interest. Existing approaches typically assess direct, indirect, and total causal effects. This work treats NNs as structural causal models (SCMs) and extends our focus to include intrinsic causal contributions (ICC). We propose an identifiable generative post-hoc framework for quantifying ICC. We also draw a relationship between ICC and Sobol' indices. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ICC generates more intuitive and reliable explanations compared to existing global explanation techniques.

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

Recent advances in motion diffusion models have substantially improved the realism of human motion synthesis. However, existing approaches either rely on full-sequence diffusion models with bidirectional generation, which limits temporal causality and real-time applicability, or autoregressive models that suffer from instability and cumulative errors. In this work, we present Causal Motion Diffusion Models (CMDM), a unified framework for autoregressive motion generation based on a causal diffusion transformer that operates in a semantically aligned latent space. CMDM builds upon a Motion-Language-Aligned Causal VAE (MAC-VAE), which encodes motion sequences into temporally causal latent representations. On top of this latent representation, an autoregressive diffusion transformer is trained using causal diffusion forcing to perform temporally ordered denoising across motion frames. To achieve fast inference, we introduce a frame-wise sampling schedule with causal uncertainty, where each subsequent frame is predicted from partially denoised previous frames. The resulting framework supports high-quality text-to-motion generation, streaming synthesis, and long-horizon motion generation at interactive rates. Experiments on HumanML3D and SnapMoGen demonstrate that CMDM outperforms existing diffusion and autoregressive models in both semantic fidelity and temporal smoothness, while substantially reducing inference latency.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

Causal precedence between biochemical interactions is crucial in the biomedical domain, because it transforms collections of individual interactions, e.g., bindings and phosphorylations, into the causal mechanisms needed to inform meaningful search and inference. Here, we analyze causal precedence in the biomedical domain as distinct from open-domain, temporal precedence. First, we describe a novel, hand-annotated text corpus of causal precedence in the biomedical domain. Second, we use this corpus to investigate a battery of models of precedence, covering rule-based, feature-based, and latent representation models. The highest-performing individual model achieved a micro F1 of 43 points, approaching the best performers on the simpler temporal-only precedence tasks. Feature-based and latent representation models each outperform the rule-based models, but their performance is complementary to one another. We apply a sieve-based architecture to capitalize on this lack of overlap, achieving a micro F1 score of 46 points.

Deploying robots in human-shared environments requires a deep understanding of how nearby agents and objects interact. Employing causal inference to model cause-and-effect relationships facilitates the prediction of human behaviours and enables the anticipation of robot interventions. However, a significant challenge arises due to the absence of implementation of existing causal discovery methods within the ROS ecosystem, the standard de-facto framework in robotics, hindering effective utilisation on real robots. To bridge this gap, in our previous work we proposed ROS-Causal, a ROS-based framework designed for onboard data collection and causal discovery in human-robot spatial interactions. In this work, we present an experimental evaluation of ROS-Causal both in simulation and on a new dataset of human-robot spatial interactions in a lab scenario, to assess its performance and effectiveness. Our analysis demonstrates the efficacy of this approach, showcasing how causal models can be extracted directly onboard by robots during data collection. The online causal models generated from the simulation are consistent with those from lab experiments. These findings can help researchers to enhance the performance of robotic systems in shared environments, firstly by studying the causal relations between variables in simulation without real people, and then facilitating the actual robot deployment in real human environments. ROS-Causal: https://lcastri.github.io/roscausal

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in biomedicine but lack true causal understanding, relying instead on correlations. This paper envisions causal LLM agents that integrate multimodal data (text, images, genomics, etc.) and perform intervention-based reasoning to infer cause-and-effect. Addressing this requires overcoming key challenges: designing safe, controllable agentic frameworks; developing rigorous benchmarks for causal evaluation; integrating heterogeneous data sources; and synergistically combining LLMs with structured knowledge (KGs) and formal causal inference tools. Such agents could unlock transformative opportunities, including accelerating drug discovery through automated hypothesis generation and simulation, enabling personalized medicine through patient-specific causal models. This research agenda aims to foster interdisciplinary efforts, bridging causal concepts and foundation models to develop reliable AI partners for biomedical progress.

In recent years, discriminative self-supervised methods have made significant strides in advancing various visual tasks. The central idea of learning a data encoder that is robust to data distortions/augmentations is straightforward yet highly effective. Although many studies have demonstrated the empirical success of various learning methods, the resulting learned representations can exhibit instability and hinder downstream performance. In this study, we analyze discriminative self-supervised methods from a causal perspective to explain these unstable behaviors and propose solutions to overcome them. Our approach draws inspiration from prior works that empirically demonstrate the ability of discriminative self-supervised methods to demix ground truth causal sources to some extent. Unlike previous work on causality-empowered representation learning, we do not apply our solutions during the training process but rather during the inference process to improve time efficiency. Through experiments on both controlled image datasets and realistic image datasets, we show that our proposed solutions, which involve tempering a linear transformation with controlled synthetic data, are effective in addressing these issues.

Reward modelling from preference data is a crucial step in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring robust generalisation to novel prompt-response pairs. In this work, we propose to frame this problem in a causal paradigm, providing the rich toolbox of causality to identify the persistent challenges, such as causal misidentification, preference heterogeneity, and confounding due to user-specific factors. Inheriting from the literature of causal inference, we identify key assumptions necessary for reliable generalisation and contrast them with common data collection practices. We illustrate failure modes of naive reward models and demonstrate how causally-inspired approaches can improve model robustness. Finally, we outline desiderata for future research and practices, advocating targeted interventions to address inherent limitations of observational data.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents' trajectories, potentially compromising the safety and efficiency of the ego-vehicle's decision-making process. Motivated by this challenge, we propose Causal tRajecTory predICtion (CRiTIC), a novel model that utilizes a Causal Discovery Network to identify inter-agent causal relations over a window of past time steps. To incorporate discovered causal relationships, we propose a novel Causal Attention Gating mechanism to selectively filter information in the proposed Transformer-based architecture. We conduct extensive experiments on two autonomous driving benchmark datasets to evaluate the robustness of our model against non-causal perturbations and its generalization capacity. Our results indicate that the robustness of predictions can be improved by up to 54% without a significant detriment to prediction accuracy. Lastly, we demonstrate the superior domain generalizability of the proposed model, which achieves up to 29% improvement in cross-domain performance. These results underscore the potential of our model to enhance both robustness and generalization capacity for trajectory prediction in diverse autonomous driving domains. Further details can be found on our project page: https://ehsan-ami.github.io/critic.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.