Daily Papers

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Machine learning recommendations are often evaluated one model at a time, despite deployment across interconnected decision makers. For continuous NPK fertilizer prescriptions, correlated errors can aggregate across farms and generate systemic costs. A model of shared and farm-specific recommendation errors links expected social loss to model adoption shares; the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index characterizes concentration effects when common model errors are independent and predictive risks are equal. A covariance-generalized formulation captures the dependence between model families. A two-model threshold characterizes when privately optimal monoculture is socially dominated, and a convex portfolio rule limits average private predictive regret. Nine model families across five Moroccan cereal systems provide a benchmark-based calibration. Under illustrative parameters and a 10% regret cap, accuracy-constrained diversification lowers modeled social loss in all five systems by 10.89-41.53% (mean 19.41%). Uniform allocation reduces modeled loss in this setting, but breaches the regret cap in every crop. Correlation sensitivity shows that highly dependent model errors attenuate the benefits of diversification. These counterfactual outcomes are not estimates of agronomic or monetary welfare; the framework identifies adoption architecture and error dependence as ecosystem-level evaluation variables.

Preparing the ground state of a given Hamiltonian and estimating its ground energy are important but computationally hard tasks. However, given some additional information, these problems can be solved efficiently on a quantum computer. We assume that an initial state with non-trivial overlap with the ground state can be efficiently prepared, and the spectral gap between the ground energy and the first excited energy is bounded from below. With these assumptions we design an algorithm that prepares the ground state when an upper bound of the ground energy is known, whose runtime has a logarithmic dependence on the inverse error. When such an upper bound is not known, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to estimate the ground energy, where the dependence of the number of queries to the initial state on the desired precision is exponentially improved compared to the current state-of-the-art algorithm proposed in [Ge et al. 2019]. These two algorithms can then be combined to prepare a ground state without knowing an upper bound of the ground energy. We also prove that our algorithms reach the complexity lower bounds by applying it to the unstructured search problem and the quantum approximate counting problem.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

This paper introduces GEMBA-MQM, a GPT-based evaluation metric designed to detect translation quality errors, specifically for the quality estimation setting without the need for human reference translations. Based on the power of large language models (LLM), GEMBA-MQM employs a fixed three-shot prompting technique, querying the GPT-4 model to mark error quality spans. Compared to previous works, our method has language-agnostic prompts, thus avoiding the need for manual prompt preparation for new languages. While preliminary results indicate that GEMBA-MQM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for system ranking, we advise caution when using it in academic works to demonstrate improvements over other methods due to its dependence on the proprietary, black-box GPT model.

The ubiquity of distributed machine learning (ML) in sensitive public domain applications calls for algorithms that protect data privacy, while being robust to faults and adversarial behaviors. Although privacy and robustness have been extensively studied independently in distributed ML, their synthesis remains poorly understood. We present the first tight analysis of the error incurred by any algorithm ensuring robustness against a fraction of adversarial machines, as well as differential privacy (DP) for honest machines' data against any other curious entity. Our analysis exhibits a fundamental trade-off between privacy, robustness, and utility. To prove our lower bound, we consider the case of mean estimation, subject to distributed DP and robustness constraints, and devise reductions to centralized estimation of one-way marginals. We prove our matching upper bound by presenting a new distributed ML algorithm using a high-dimensional robust aggregation rule. The latter amortizes the dependence on the dimension in the error (caused by adversarial workers and DP), while being agnostic to the statistical properties of the data.

While it is widely known that neural networks are universal approximators of continuous functions, a less known and perhaps more powerful result is that a neural network with a single hidden layer can approximate accurately any nonlinear continuous operator. This universal approximation theorem is suggestive of the potential application of neural networks in learning nonlinear operators from data. However, the theorem guarantees only a small approximation error for a sufficient large network, and does not consider the important optimization and generalization errors. To realize this theorem in practice, we propose deep operator networks (DeepONets) to learn operators accurately and efficiently from a relatively small dataset. A DeepONet consists of two sub-networks, one for encoding the input function at a fixed number of sensors x_i, i=1,dots,m (branch net), and another for encoding the locations for the output functions (trunk net). We perform systematic simulations for identifying two types of operators, i.e., dynamic systems and partial differential equations, and demonstrate that DeepONet significantly reduces the generalization error compared to the fully-connected networks. We also derive theoretically the dependence of the approximation error in terms of the number of sensors (where the input function is defined) as well as the input function type, and we verify the theorem with computational results. More importantly, we observe high-order error convergence in our computational tests, namely polynomial rates (from half order to fourth order) and even exponential convergence with respect to the training dataset size.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Neural operator surrogates (NO) approximate PDE solutions orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers, but suffer from spectral bias: high-frequency content is systematically attenuated, limiting reliability where fine-scale structure matters. Sparse sensor measurements of the field are often available too, offering pointwise accuracy without spectral distortion but covering only a small fraction of the domain. We address this by treating NO predictions as auxiliary observations in a diffusion posterior sampling framework. Our method, FreqNO-DPS (https://github.com/niccoloperrone/FreqNO-DPS), combines an unconditional score-based diffusion prior, trained on high-fidelity simulations, with diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) conditioned on sparse observations and guided by a frozen neural operator. Naive integration reintroduces the surrogate's spectral bias; we resolve this with a closed-form, spectrally shaped guidance score that weights the surrogate by its frequency-dependent accuracy and needs no denoiser backpropagation. A distribution-free analysis bounds the approximation error across the frequency-diffusion-time plane and shows the guidance's frequency dependence is preserved regardless of distributional assumptions. On 3D elastic wavefield prediction at 5% and 2% sensor coverage, the method reaches near-zero spectral bias across all bands, where both the surrogate and sensor-only DPS show systematic high-frequency attenuation. Isotropic guidance, the natural baseline, improves pointwise accuracy but carries the bias into the posterior nearly intact, confirming that frequency-dependent calibration is essential, not merely beneficial. The framework needs only paired surrogate/reference data and exploits no problem-specific structure beyond the residual's approximate spectral diagonality, verifiable for new surrogates via the coherence diagnostic we provide.

Most existing automatic speech recognition (ASR) research evaluate models using in-domain datasets. However, they seldom evaluate how they generalize across diverse speech contexts. This study addresses this gap by benchmarking seven Akan ASR models built on transformer architectures, such as Whisper and Wav2Vec2, using four Akan speech corpora to determine their performance. These datasets encompass various domains, including culturally relevant image descriptions, informal conversations, biblical scripture readings, and spontaneous financial dialogues. A comparison of the word error rate and character error rate highlighted domain dependency, with models performing optimally only within their training domains while showing marked accuracy degradation in mismatched scenarios. This study also identified distinct error behaviors between the Whisper and Wav2Vec2 architectures. Whereas fine-tuned Whisper Akan models led to more fluent but potentially misleading transcription errors, Wav2Vec2 produced more obvious yet less interpretable outputs when encountering unfamiliar inputs. This trade-off between readability and transparency in ASR errors should be considered when selecting architectures for low-resource language (LRL) applications. These findings highlight the need for targeted domain adaptation techniques, adaptive routing strategies, and multilingual training frameworks for Akan and other LRLs.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Constant-step stochastic approximation generally has a nonzero stationary mean error that persists under time averaging. This paper studies that error for nonlinear two-timescale recursions driven by an exogenous finite-state Markov chain. Under stated smoothness assumptions and conditions on the stationary distribution, we derive a first-order bias expansion whose error bound remains uniform as the slow step size becomes much smaller than the fast step size. Fast-manifold coordinates keep the associated covariance equation regular in this limit. For fast step η and slow step varepsilon, the expansion reveals a mixed contribution varepsilon^2/η alongside terms linear in each step size. This dependence matters for bias reduction: along power-law step-size paths, the bias exponents need not be integers, so Richardson--Romberg extrapolation requires weights matched to the path. An exactly solvable nonlinear Markov example verifies the coefficients. We verify localization for temporal-difference learning and compare finite-run extrapolation at equal update budgets. For finite runs, we bound the initialization error of tail averages on both timescales under an additional coupling assumption. In the special case of additive independent noise, signed third-moment cancellation yields a sharper remainder.

Moment-based estimation is a theoretically attractive approach to parametric inference, especially when likelihood-based estimation is unavailable, misspecified, or computationally inconvenient. However, the moment equations involve sample averages, which makes moment-based estimation sensitive to outliers. We propose the SGR-GMM algorithm, a robust generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure that uses a spectral gradient reweighting (SGR) primitive to soft-reweight the per-observation gradients during the moment-matching optimization. Our analysis has three layers. First, for a fixed center, the SGR primitive is formulated as an entropy-regularized spectral game between a sample-weight player and a density-matrix player, which is analyzed using classical multiplicative-weights and matrix-multiplicative-weights regret bounds. Second, we establish explicit convergence radius and finite termination bound for the fixed-center updates in the SGR primitive. Third, we prove a local finite-sample parameter estimation error bound with explicit dependence on the contamination fraction, inlier gradient stability, local GMM identification strength, and optimization accuracy. We further specialize the SGR-GMM algorithm to obtain a robust diagonally-weighted GMM (DGMM) estimator for estimating heteroscedastic low-rank Gaussian mixtures observed under additive Gaussian noise and strong contamination. In the numerical experiments, the SGR primitive produces nearly-oracle gradient estimation and the robust DGMM specialization substantially improves over non-robust moment baselines. The code and data are available at https://github.com/liu-lzhang/sgr-gmm.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Behavior cloning is a fundamental paradigm in machine learning, enabling policy learning from expert demonstrations across robotics, autonomous driving, and generative models. Autoregressive models like transformer have proven remarkably effective, from large language models (LLMs) to vision-language-action systems (VLAs). However, applying autoregressive models to continuous control requires discretizing actions through quantization, a practice widely adopted yet poorly understood theoretically. This paper provides theoretical foundations for this practice. We analyze how quantization error propagates along the horizon and interacts with statistical sample complexity. We show that behavior cloning with quantized actions and log-loss achieves optimal sample complexity, matching existing lower bounds, and incurs only polynomial horizon dependence on quantization error, provided the dynamics are stable and the policy satisfies a probabilistic smoothness condition. We further characterize when different quantization schemes satisfy or violate these requirements, and propose a model-based augmentation that provably improves the error bound without requiring policy smoothness. Finally, we establish fundamental limits that jointly capture the effects of quantization error and statistical complexity.

We study first-order methods for convex optimization problems with functions f satisfying the recently proposed ell-smoothness condition ||nabla^{2}f(x)|| le ellleft(||nabla f(x)||right), which generalizes the L-smoothness and (L_{0},L_{1})-smoothness. While accelerated gradient descent AGD is known to reach the optimal complexity O(L R / varepsilon) under L-smoothness, where varepsilon is an error tolerance and R is the distance between a starting and an optimal point, existing extensions to ell-smoothness either incur extra dependence on the initial gradient, suffer exponential factors in L_{1} R, or require costly auxiliary sub-routines, leaving open whether an AGD-type O(ell(0) R / varepsilon) rate is possible for small-varepsilon, even in the (L_{0},L_{1})-smoothness case. We resolve this open question. Leveraging a new Lyapunov function and designing new algorithms, we achieve O(ell(0) R / varepsilon) oracle complexity for small-varepsilon and virtually any ell. For instance, for (L_{0},L_{1})-smoothness, our bound O(L_0 R / varepsilon) is provably optimal in the small-varepsilon regime and removes all non-constant multiplicative factors present in prior accelerated algorithms.

Post-training quantization is widely used for compressing large neural networks, but aggressive low-bit quantization can significantly degrade model quality. A common remedy is to augment the quantized weights with a low-rank correction, leading to approximations of the form Wapprox Q+LR. In this paper, we study this low-precision plus low-rank representation through the layer-wise reconstruction objective |XW-X(Q+LR)|_F^2, where X is a calibration matrix. We establish, to our knowledge, the first information-theoretic lower bounds for this problem under finite-alphabet and bounded low-rank compensation constraints. We then propose GPTQ-intrinsic LoRA, a training-free algorithm that incorporates the low-rank correction directly into a GPTQ-style quantization pass by appropriately augmenting the calibration Hessian. For the choice L=V_r, where V_r contains the top right singular vectors of X, we prove layer-wise reconstruction error bounds in which the usual GPTQ dependence on |X|_F^2 is replaced by the rank-r residual |X-X_r|_F^2, up to regularization terms. Under natural structural assumptions, these bounds match the information-theoretic lower bounds in their dominant scaling, up to constants and mild factors. We also introduce Bid-Up, a fixed-grid quantization refinement step that can be alternated with optimal low-rank compensation with guaranteed non-increasing layer-wise reconstruction error. Experiments on Qwen3 language models and DeiT vision transformers show that GPTQ-intrinsic LoRA improves over GPTQ and GPTQ followed by low-rank compensation, with additional gains from refinement loops.

Dense associative memory (DAM) provides an energy-based framework for memory retrieval with close connections to attention mechanisms in modern artificial intelligence. Despite growing interest in differential privacy for AI, the privacy of DAM retrieval dynamics remains relatively unexplored. In this paper, we develop a differential privacy framework for log-sum-ReLU (LSR) dense associative memory, whose finite-support retrieval dynamics pose distinctive challenges for privacy-preserving computation. We propose the Boundary-Responsive Adaptive Correction Evolution (BRACE) algorithm, a differentially private retrieval mechanism for LSR-DAM that adaptively corrects boundary-sensitive perturbations to control their cumulative effect over the retrieval trajectory. In theory, we prove that our method is minimax optimal by deriving dimension-independent terminal and full-trajectory retrieval error rates, with optimal dependence on the inverse temperature and, in the growing-horizon regime, the retrieval horizon. We further establish central limit theorems that enable uncertainty quantification for private retrieval by characterizing its asymptotic distribution and the additional variability introduced by privacy. Numerical experiments compare our proposed method with baseline differential privacy approaches and evaluate its retrieval accuracy. Together, our results provide a theoretical foundation for optimal privacy-preserving retrieval and uncertainty quantification in energy-based associative memory systems.

We introduce a new mechanism for stochastic convex optimization (SCO) with user-level differential privacy guarantees. The convergence rates of this mechanism are similar to those in the prior work of Levy et al. (2021); Narayanan et al. (2022), but with two important improvements. Our mechanism does not require any smoothness assumptions on the loss. Furthermore, our bounds are also the first where the minimum number of users needed for user-level privacy has no dependence on the dimension and only a logarithmic dependence on the desired excess error. The main idea underlying the new mechanism is to show that the optimizers of strongly convex losses have low local deletion sensitivity, along with an output perturbation method for functions with low local deletion sensitivity, which could be of independent interest.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on natural language tasks but remain unreliable in mathematical reasoning, frequently generating fluent yet logically inconsistent solutions. We present NeuroProlog, a neurosymbolic framework that ensures verifiable reasoning by compiling math word problems into executable Prolog programs with formal verification guarantees. We propose a multi-task Cocktail training strategy that jointly optimizes three synergistic objectives in a unified symbolic representation space: (i) mathematical formula-to-rule translation (KB), (ii) natural language-to-program synthesis (SOLVE), and (iii) program-answer alignment. This joint supervision enables positive transfer, where symbolic grounding in formula translation directly improves compositional reasoning capabilities. At inference, we introduce an execution-guided decoding pipeline with fine-grained error taxonomy that enables iterative program repair and quantifies model self-debugging capacity. Comprehensive evaluation on GSM8K across four model scales (3B--32B parameters) demonstrates consistent improvements: cocktail training achieves significant accuracy gains of +5.23\% (Qwen-32B, p < 0.01), +3.43\% (GPT-OSS-20B, p < 0.01), and +5.54\% (Llama-3B, p < 0.05) over single-task baselines. Systematic error analysis reveals scale-dependent learning dynamics: at 32B scale, cocktail training transforms unfixable type errors (12\% repair rate) into correctable domain errors (96\% repair rate), achieving 92.7\% overall correction; at 8B scale, the same training eliminates syntactic errors but introduces semantic failures, revealing a critical capacity threshold for type-safe symbolic reasoning.

Tabular machine learning presents a paradox: modern models achieve state-of-the-art performance using high-dimensional (high-D), collinear, error-prone data, defying the "Garbage In, Garbage Out" mantra. To help resolve this, we synthesize principles from Information Theory, Latent Factor Models, and Psychometrics, clarifying that predictive robustness arises not solely from data cleanliness, but from the synergy between data architecture and model capacity. Partitioning predictor-space "noise" into "Predictor Error" and "Structural Uncertainty" (informational deficits from stochastic generative mappings), we prove that leveraging high-D sets of error-prone predictors asymptotically overcomes both types of noise, whereas cleaning a low-D set is fundamentally bounded by Structural Uncertainty. We demonstrate why "Informative Collinearity" (dependencies from shared latent causes) enhances reliability and convergence efficiency, and explain why increased dimensionality reduces the latent inference burden, enabling feasibility with finite samples. To address practical constraints, we propose "Proactive Data-Centric AI" to identify predictors that enable robustness efficiently. We also derive boundaries for Systematic Error Regimes and show why models that absorb "rogue" dependencies can mitigate assumption violations. Linking latent architecture to Benign Overfitting, we offer a first step towards a unified view of robustness to Outcome Error and predictor-space noise, while also delineating when traditional DCAI's focus on label cleaning remains powerful. By redefining data quality from item-level perfection to portfolio-level architecture, we provide a theoretical rationale for "Local Factories" -- learning from live, uncurated enterprise "data swamps" -- supporting a deployment paradigm shift from "Model Transfer" to "Methodology Transfer'' to overcome static generalizability limitations.

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

How do multi-turn reasoning systems fail? The expected answer is logical contradiction, in which the system's maintained state becomes unsatisfiable. We show that the dominant mode is instead satisfiable drift, where the internal state stays consistent while the returned answer silently violates prior commitments. We build DRIFT-Bench (Decomposing Reasoning Into Failure Types), a solver-instrumented benchmark of 816 test problems across three constraint domains, and evaluate four methods on it across four open-weight models (8B-120B parameters). MUS-Repair, which feeds minimal unsatisfiable subsets back to the generator, is strongest in every setting (+1.8 to +15.0 pp over the best non-MUS baseline). But the central finding is what repair leaves behind. After structured feedback, models rarely contradict themselves. They forget. Residual errors are 98-100% satisfiable drift across all settings, while contradiction drops to near zero. Reliable multi-turn systems must separately validate that the returned answer respects the maintained state. Code is available at https://github.com/kaons-research/drift-bench.

Many post-training quantization (PTQ) methods use layer-wise reconstruction, second-order proxy objectives, or activation-aware transformations to reduce quantization-induced error. Whether that error signal predicts the downstream functional impact of quantizing an individual attention projection has not been directly characterized. We sweep nine open-weight language models (1.3B--8B parameters; OPT, GPT-J, LLaMA-1/2/3, Mistral, Qwen 2.5) and quantize one attention projection at a time under round-to-nearest (RTN) and, for seven models, GPTQ at 3 and 4 bits, recording reconstruction error, perplexity change, and per-projection activation-weighted quantization error for 3,808 distinct measurements. We find: (1) within a given component type (Q, K, V, or O), reconstruction error explains less than 10% of the variance in perplexity sensitivity in 27 of 36 cases under RTN, with median R^2 = 0.044; (2) both component type and layer identity explain more variance than reconstruction error in all 9 models, with layer identity the strongest predictor in 7 of 9 models and component type strongest in the remaining 2; (3) value (V) projections are the most commonly dominant component, accounting for 38--51% of total positive Delta PPL in seven of nine models; (4) the dominant component is broadly preserved between RTN and GPTQ (5 of 7 cases); and (5) activation-weighted quantization error is a moderately better within-component predictor than reconstruction error for V projections specifically (median R^2 of 0.20 vs. 0.06). These findings indicate that relative weight reconstruction error alone is insufficient for sensitivity-aware bit allocation, and that V projections merit dedicated consideration in mixed-precision schemes.

Large language models (LLMs) can call tools effectively, yet they remain brittle in multi-turn execution: following a tool call error, smaller models often degenerate into repetitive invalid re-invocations, failing to interpret error feedback and self-correct. This brittleness hinders reliable real-world deployment, where the execution errors are inherently inevitable during tool interaction procedures. We identify a key limitation of current approaches: standard reinforcement learning (RL) treats errors as sparse negative rewards, providing no guidance on how to recover, while pre-collected synthetic error-correction datasets suffer from distribution mismatch with the model's on-policy error modes. To bridge this gap, we propose Fission-GRPO, a framework that converts execution errors into corrective supervision within the RL training loop. Our core mechanism fissions each failed trajectory into a new training instance by augmenting it with diagnostic feedback from a finetuned Error Simulator, then resampling recovery rollouts on-policy. This enables the model to learn from the precise errors it makes during exploration, rather than from static, pre-collected error cases. On the BFCL v4 Multi-Turn, Fission-GRPO improves the error recovery rate of Qwen3-8B by 5.7% absolute, crucially, yielding a 4% overall accuracy gain (42.75% to 46.75%) over GRPO and outperforming specialized tool-use agents.

In Grammatical Error Correction, systems are evaluated by the number of errors they correct. However, no one has assessed whether all error types are equally important. We provide and apply a method to quantify the importance of different grammatical error types to humans. We show that some rare errors are considered disturbing while other common ones are not. This affects possible directions to improve both systems and their evaluation.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

While language embeddings have been shown to have stereotyping biases, how these biases affect downstream question answering (QA) models remains unexplored. We present UNQOVER, a general framework to probe and quantify biases through underspecified questions. We show that a naive use of model scores can lead to incorrect bias estimates due to two forms of reasoning errors: positional dependence and question independence. We design a formalism that isolates the aforementioned errors. As case studies, we use this metric to analyze four important classes of stereotypes: gender, nationality, ethnicity, and religion. We probe five transformer-based QA models trained on two QA datasets, along with their underlying language models. Our broad study reveals that (1) all these models, with and without fine-tuning, have notable stereotyping biases in these classes; (2) larger models often have higher bias; and (3) the effect of fine-tuning on bias varies strongly with the dataset and the model size.

Self-correction is particularly useful when a failure constrains the next repair. Coding agents benefit from this property because compilers, tests, and execution traces turn many failures into typed recovery signals, but broad language-agent tasks often expose only a coarse task failure. This creates a tension for generic recovery playbooks: they broaden the agent's context precisely when the system needs a narrower repair interface, mixing incompatible signals for invalid actions, missing procedures, and strict-format errors. Our insight is that development-set failures can recover part of the missing diagnostic substrate by deciding which recovery interventions are admissible before test-time correction. We propose DARC, a diagnosis-guided recovery harness that profiles task-family failure modes, prunes mismatched interventions from a shared recovery library, and freezes a verifier-selected success-cost policy for deployment. This causal order makes correction selective: the harness first determines what kind of failure can be repaired, then decides how much recovery evidence to spend. In ALFWorld, AppWorld, and XBRL Finance, the same protocol yields an action-validity harness, a procedural-recovery fallback, and a format-precision retrieval policy; in each evaluated setting it improves average task performance over base agents and broad playbooks while reducing environment steps or retrieval budget. Our experiments show that failures need not trigger uniformly more context: DARC turns self-correction from prompt expansion into recovery-interface design. DARC provides a practical route toward more reliable agents in domains where compiler-like feedback is absent: making failures actionable before making contexts larger.

LLM agents interact with Web services to perform tasks on users' behalf. Errors during these interactions can disrupt execution and prevent task completion, motivating external intervention. However, agents may self-recover through continued execution, raising the question of when to intervene and when to wait for self-recovery. We present an empirical study of errors and self-recovery in LLM agents. We construct ReInBench, a dataset containing 1,259 agent traces and 1,403 error events across computer-use and Web tasks. Our study examines how often and how quickly agents self-recover, how self-recovery relates to subsequent execution and task completion, and whether self-recovery can be predicted when an error occurs. We find that 725 error events self-recover, often within a few steps, with self-recovery performance differing across Execution LLMs. Self-recovery can also help agents recover from subsequent errors of the same type and support overall task completion. Intervention should therefore prioritize errors unlikely to self-recover, while allowing agents to continue when self-recovery is likely. Building on these empirical findings, we propose ReCoF, a method that predicts whether an error will self-recover to inform whether additional intervention is needed. ReCoF achieves an average relative improvement of 9.02% in Macro-F1 over the strongest baseline on ReInBench. Our code and data can be found at https://method-notes.github.io/ReCoF/.

Tool-using language model agents are usually evaluated by whether they finish the user's task. That metric misses a common failure: an agent can complete the requested work while also taking an unauthorized side-effecting action, such as writing to the wrong object, expanding the scope of the request, or contacting an unintended recipient. We call this failure mode collateral damage (CD). We introduce SABench (Side-effect-Aware Benchmark), a benchmark of 201 email, calendar, and ticket tasks. Each task crosses one of four state structures (independent, dependent, externally reachable, cross-tool) with one of four trap families (ambiguity, mis-targeting, cascade harm, overreach), and each task has a deterministic trace-based oracle for both goal satisfaction and authorization compliance. Across 2,211 model-task pairs from 11 frontier LLMs spanning major commercial and open model families, 15.2% of all runs incur CD, with risk concentrated in ambiguity tasks (38.8% violation rate) while non-ambiguous traps average 8.4% CD. Among goal-satisfied runs, 12.8% still produce unauthorized writes. Cross-tool and dependent states have about twice the CD rate of independent states. CD rates vary by 4.7x across models at comparable goal rates, which suggests that task success alone is a poor proxy for safe tool use. The SABench task corpus is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Phaedrus/sabench; the traces, oracle, code, and analysis pipeline are released at https://github.com/hjj194/sabench-artifact.

Tests that cause spurious failures without any code changes, i.e., flaky tests, hamper regression testing, increase maintenance costs, may shadow real bugs, and decrease trust in tests. While the prevalence and importance of flakiness is well established, prior research focused on Java projects, thus raising the question of how the findings generalize. In order to provide a better understanding of the role of flakiness in software development beyond Java, we empirically study the prevalence, causes, and degree of flakiness within software written in Python, one of the currently most popular programming languages. For this, we sampled 22352 open source projects from the popular PyPI package index, and analyzed their 876186 test cases for flakiness. Our investigation suggests that flakiness is equally prevalent in Python as it is in Java. The reasons, however, are different: Order dependency is a much more dominant problem in Python, causing 59% of the 7571 flaky tests in our dataset. Another 28% were caused by test infrastructure problems, which represent a previously undocumented cause of flakiness. The remaining 13% can mostly be attributed to the use of network and randomness APIs by the projects, which is indicative of the type of software commonly written in Python. Our data also suggests that finding flaky tests requires more runs than are often done in the literature: A 95% confidence that a passing test case is not flaky on average would require 170 reruns.

Large language models frequently fail to produce correct code on their first attempt, yet most benchmarks evaluate them in a single-shot setting. We investigate iterative self-repair (feeding execution errors back to the model for correction) across seven models spanning three families and both open-weight and proprietary providers: Llama 3.1 8B, Llama 3.3 70B, Llama 4 Scout (MoE, 16 experts), Llama 4 Maverick (MoE, 128 experts), Qwen3 32B, Gemini 2.5 Flash, and Gemini 2.5 Pro. On HumanEval (164 problems) and MBPP Sanitized (257 problems) with up to five attempts, self-repair universally improves pass rates: +4.9 to +17.1 pp on HumanEval and +16.0 to +30.0 pp on MBPP. Gemini 2.5 Flash achieves the highest final pass rates (96.3% HumanEval, 93.8% MBPP). Most gains concentrate in the first two rounds.Error-type analysis shows assertion errors (logical mistakes) are the hardest to repair at ~45%, while syntax and name errors are repaired at substantially higher rates, connecting to broader findings on the limits of LLM self-correction. Prior work found that weaker models fail at self-repair or require fine-tuning; we show that modern instruction-tuned models succeed with prompting alone, even at 8B scale. We also provide the first comparison of dense and MoE architectures for self-repair, and extend the repair-vs-resampling tradeoff analysis to modern models. A prompt ablation reveals chain-of-thought repair yields up to +5.5 pp additional self-repair gain (measured as improvement in repair delta) over minimal prompting for capable models.

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

Agent harnesses often improve language models with human-designed workflows, but as models grow more capable, unreliable guidance can increasingly constrain their execution. We call the ability to benefit from useful guidance while overriding unreliable guidance thinking outside the box. We introduce Box^2-Bench, which holds the model and task fixed while varying workflow reliability to isolate how models regulate their reliance on guidance. On Box^2-Bench, frontier models often benefit from reliable guidance but remain vulnerable when it is misleading or becomes unreliable. To test whether this capability can be learned, we train two open-weight models using bad workflows, reserving good workflows for evaluation. We explore two complementary training strategies: counterfactual supervised fine-tuning improves robustness, while outcome-based reinforcement learning can shift the balance toward greater use of helpful workflows. We further find that this behavior extends beyond workflows to other forms of external information, improving peer correction and robustness to corrupted memory. Together, our results identify selective reliance on fallible external information as a dimension of agent reliability not captured by task performance alone.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Autonomous agents increasingly perform bounded software tasks under an orchestrator that retries, resumes, and budgets them. The machinery such orchestrators reach for is the service mesh's: retry, timeout, and error-rate circuit breaking. We report a failure study of a production agentic software-delivery platform over 147 numbered incidents spanning 81 runs, each with a measured cost and, in most cases, a mutation proof reproducing the failure. All three assumptions those primitives rest on are violated in practice, and we quantify the consequences: a loop of fifty-four consecutive successful tool calls no error-rate breaker could see; a progress signal constant by construction, guaranteeing a false trip on the third repair round and driving one run from six of six components to three; twenty-one events accumulated across six invocations of one delegation, making a correct, idempotent component unwinnable; a misrouted failure that woke five components for a two-component fault, leaving three bystanders regressing working code; and twelve incidents in which the enforcement layer blocked correct work, the most expensive costing 107 agent turns and zero accepted writes. We find one cross-cutting cause and its dual. Identity adequacy: in five separate subsystems an identity that failed to discriminate produced a confident wrong answer, and two of them derived the corrective rule independently. Evidence adequacy: a reliability decision may be taken only on evidence capable of moving, attributable to what it measures, and deterministic under identical conditions. From the findings we derive seven reliability primitives whose enforcement unit is the delegation rather than the message, and specify the controlled evaluation the study motivates but does not constitute.

Preference learning enhances Code LLMs beyond supervised fine-tuning by leveraging relative quality comparisons. Existing methods construct preference pairs from candidates based on test case success, treating the higher pass rate sample as positive and the lower as negative. However, this approach does not pinpoint specific errors in the code, which prevents the model from learning more informative error correction patterns, as aligning failing code as a whole lacks the granularity needed to capture meaningful error-resolution relationships. To address these issues, we propose IterPref, a new preference alignment framework that mimics human iterative debugging to refine Code LLMs. IterPref explicitly locates error regions and aligns the corresponding tokens via a tailored DPO algorithm. To generate informative pairs, we introduce the CodeFlow dataset, where samples are iteratively refined until passing tests, with modifications capturing error corrections. Extensive experiments show that a diverse suite of Code LLMs equipped with IterPref achieves significant performance gains in code generation and improves on challenging tasks like BigCodeBench. In-depth analysis reveals that IterPref yields fewer errors. Our code and data will be made publicaly available.

Large Language Models (LLM) benchmarks tell us when models fail, but not why they fail. A wrong answer on a reasoning dataset may stem from formatting issues, calculation errors, or dataset noise rather than weak reasoning. Without disentangling such causes, benchmarks remain incomplete and cannot reliably guide model improvement. We introduce ErrorMap, the first method to chart the sources of LLM failure. It extracts a model's unique "failure signature", clarifies what benchmarks measure, and broadens error identification to reduce blind spots. This helps developers debug models, aligns benchmark goals with outcomes, and supports informed model selection. ErrorMap works on any model or dataset with the same logic. Applying our method to 35 datasets and 83 models we generate ErrorAtlas, a taxonomy of model errors, revealing recurring failure patterns. ErrorAtlas highlights error types that are currently underexplored in LLM research, such as omissions of required details in the output and question misinterpretation. By shifting focus from where models succeed to why they fail, ErrorMap and ErrorAtlas enable advanced evaluation - one that exposes hidden weaknesses and directs progress. Unlike success, typically measured by task-level metrics, our approach introduces a deeper evaluation layer that can be applied globally across models and tasks, offering richer insights into model behavior and limitations. We make the taxonomy and code publicly available with plans to periodically update ErrorAtlas as new benchmarks and models emerge.

Existing agent benchmarks mainly evaluate final task success or tool-call correctness, providing limited insight into whether agents can reliably diagnose and recover from intermediate execution failures. This limitation becomes particularly critical in multi-turn parallel tool-use scenarios, where errors may propagate across dependent branches and trigger cascading failures. We introduce ParaRecover, a process-level benchmark for evaluating error localization and recovery in multi-turn parallel tool-use agents. Built upon a fine-grained taxonomy of 14 error types covering planning dependencies, tool selection, and argument matching, the benchmark comprises 10,626 instances spanning two difficulty levels. To enable finegrained, process-oriented evaluation, we further propose the SDE rubric, which measures structural integrity, diagnostic reasoning, and evolutionary strategy during agent execution.Experiments across more than ten mainstream LLMs reveal that even state-of-the-art models still struggle with multi-turn error propagation,implicit tool-use failures, and precise replanning. Moreover, we demonstrate that the SDE rubric provides effective supervision signals for improving agents' reflective recovery capabilities. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/gbw206/ParaRecover.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce errors, including factual inaccuracies, biases, and reasoning failures, collectively referred to as "hallucinations". Recent studies have demonstrated that LLMs' internal states encode information regarding the truthfulness of their outputs, and that this information can be utilized to detect errors. In this work, we show that the internal representations of LLMs encode much more information about truthfulness than previously recognized. We first discover that the truthfulness information is concentrated in specific tokens, and leveraging this property significantly enhances error detection performance. Yet, we show that such error detectors fail to generalize across datasets, implying that -- contrary to prior claims -- truthfulness encoding is not universal but rather multifaceted. Next, we show that internal representations can also be used for predicting the types of errors the model is likely to make, facilitating the development of tailored mitigation strategies. Lastly, we reveal a discrepancy between LLMs' internal encoding and external behavior: they may encode the correct answer, yet consistently generate an incorrect one. Taken together, these insights deepen our understanding of LLM errors from the model's internal perspective, which can guide future research on enhancing error analysis and mitigation.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.

Machine-learned interatomic potentials distilled from foundation models enable fast large-scale molecular dynamics (MD), but they can fail locally in chemical environments that their training data did not sample. System-averaged error metrics and small random audits often miss such sparse or isolated failures. Here we use an exact equivariant foundation model, MACE-MPA-0, to check every atom of million-atom production simulations. Reorganizing two-layer MACE inference into a receiver-chunked three-pass schedule that keeps no per-edge intermediates resident reduces the marginal memory per atom 340-fold, evaluates up to 2.86times10^{7} atoms on a single H200 GPU, and supervises 10^{6}-atom trajectories in LAMMPS at 1.3% of the run time. Distilled MACE students run four to nine times slower than NEP89 with 0.95-1.28 times the teacher's force error against density functional theory (DFT). In molten SiO_2, whole-system checks uncover a persistent tail of under-coordinated atoms hidden by the system-averaged error and an isolated, unphysical O-O contact that a 1% random audit misses 94% of the time. On-the-fly retraining on teacher-labelled 13-Å clusters, with the force loss restricted to their inner 6 Å, removes three quarters of the failure tail and the kilobar-level pressure biases in SiO_2 and compressed water; the repair converges to the teacher, not to DFT.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

Large language models (LLMs) possess impressive linguistic capabilities but often fail to faithfully retain factual knowledge, leading to hallucinations and unreliable outputs. Understanding LLMs' knowledge deficiencies by exhaustively evaluating against full-scale knowledge bases is computationally prohibitive, especially for closed-weight models. We propose stochastic error ascent (SEA), a scalable and efficient framework for discovering knowledge deficiencies (errors) in closed-weight LLMs under a strict query budget. Rather than naively probing all knowledge candidates, SEA formulates error discovery as a stochastic optimization process: it iteratively retrieves new high-error candidates by leveraging the semantic similarity to previously observed failures. To further enhance search efficiency and coverage, SEA employs hierarchical retrieval across document and paragraph levels, and constructs a relation directed acyclic graph to model error propagation and identify systematic failure modes. Empirically, SEA uncovers 40.7x more knowledge errors than Automated Capability Discovery and 26.7% more than AutoBencher, while reducing the cost-per-error by 599x and 9x, respectively. Human evaluation confirms the high quality of generated questions, while ablation and convergence analyses validate the contribution of each component in SEA. Further analysis on the discovered errors reveals correlated failure patterns across LLM families and recurring deficits, highlighting the need for better data coverage and targeted fine-tuning in future LLM development.

Aggregate accuracy summarizes how often a model is correct, but not which judgments remain correct when requests change. We evaluate Jev and nine language models on ContractNLI, with repeated requests that preserve the contract and target while varying visible hypotheses, requested answers, and output order. A four-model follow-up adds an equal-call repetition control and coverage of the remaining test contracts. Corrections and regressions can cancel, leaving unchanged accuracy despite changed decisions; consistent answers can also preserve errors. Majority voting over recorded responses yields small, uncertain gains, with repeated wrong answers accounting for much of the observed error. Gold-class diagnostics further reveal different error profiles behind aggregate model rankings. Resource comparisons add distinct trade-offs: Jev is cheapest and fastest for the joint baseline, while hosted language models achieve higher accuracy. Together, these findings connect decision-level evaluation to whether additional calls improve correctness and what the resulting decisions cost.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

Despite rapid progress in LLM agents, performance on long-horizon, tool-using tasks remains fragile. To better understand this fragility, we ask a simple question: do all actions contribute equally to failure? Analyzing execution traces on τ-Bench (Airline/Retail) and SWE-Bench Verified, we decompose trajectories into mutating (environment-changing) vs.\ non-mutating steps and formalize decisive deviations, earliest action, level divergences that flip success to failure. A logistic regression reveals that each additional deviation in a mutating action reduces the odds of success by upto 92% on Airline and upto 96% on Retail for SoTA models. In contrast, deviations in non-mutating actions have little to no effect. Errors also grow with context length as agents drift from role and act on stale constraints. Motivated by these observations, we introduce , a model-agnostic, gradient-free, test-time safeguard that (i) adds mutation-gated verification, (ii) injects Targeted Reflection before mutating steps, and (iii) performs block-based context cleaning. delivers consistent gains, e.g., Qwen3-Thinking: +28\% relative on Airline, +11\% on Retail, and +7\% on SWE-Bench Verified; Claude: +9\%/+7\%. We further identify ceiling effects in τ-Bench, where annotation errors and underspecified tasks artificially cap model performance. To address this, we release τ-Bench Verified, which restores benchmark headroom through targeted revisions. Our results argue for action-level analysis, targeted safeguards, and reliable evaluations as prerequisites for robust multi-turn agents.

Large language models can detect their own errors and sometimes correct them without external feedback, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate this through the lens of second-order models of confidence from decision neuroscience. In a first-order system, confidence derives from the generation signal itself and is therefore maximal for the chosen response, precluding error detection. Second-order models posit a partially independent evaluative signal that can disagree with the committed response, providing the basis for error detection. Kumaran et al. (2026) showed that LLMs cache a confidence representation at a token immediately following the answer (i.e. post-answer newline: PANL) -- that causally drives verbal confidence and dissociates from log-probabilities. Here we test whether this PANL signal extends beyond confidence to support error detection and self-correction. Here we test whether this signal supports error detection and self-correction, deriving predictions from the second-order framework. Using a verify-then-correct paradigm, we show that: (i) verbal confidence predicts error detection far beyond token log-probabilities, ruling out a first-order account; (ii) PANL activations predict error detection beyond verbal confidence itself; and (iii) PANL predicts which errors the model can correct -- where all behavioural signals fail. Causal interventions confirm that PANL signals rescue error detection behavior when answer information is corrupted. All findings replicate across models (Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B) and tasks (TriviaQA and MNLI). These results reveal that LLMs naturally implement a second-order confidence architecture whose internal evaluative signal encodes not only whether an answer is likely wrong but whether the model has the knowledge to fix it.

Automatic Question Generation (QG) often produces outputs with critical defects, such as factual hallucinations and answer mismatches. However, existing evaluation methods, including LLM-based evaluators, mainly adopt a black-box and holistic paradigm without explicit error modeling, leading to the neglect of such defects and overestimation of question quality. To address this issue, we propose ErrEval, a flexible and Error-aware Evaluation framework that enhances QG evaluation through explicit error diagnostics. Specifically, ErrEval reformulates evaluation as a two-stage process of error diagnosis followed by informed scoring. At the first stage, a lightweight plug-and-play Error Identifier detects and categorizes common errors across structural, linguistic, and content-related aspects. These diagnostic signals are then incorporated as explicit evidence to guide LLM evaluators toward more fine-grained and grounded judgments. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of ErrEval, showing that incorporating explicit diagnostics improves alignment with human judgments. Further analyses confirm that ErrEval effectively mitigates the overestimation of low-quality questions.

Independence testing is a fundamental and classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) allow stopping earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. It is well known that classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data settings: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing but such corrections generally result in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests (SKITs) that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is valid under non-i.i.d. time-varying settings, for which there exist no batch tests. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

LLM-based agents increasingly solve complex tasks through long trajectories involving reasoning steps, tool calls, and inter-agent communication. However, when these agents fail, it is often unclear which agent caused the failure and which step introduced the decisive error. This attribution problem is challenging because mistakes can propagate across the trajectory: later actions may appear incorrect, but only because they depend on an earlier corrupted state. Therefore, failure attribution cannot be treated as independent step-level classification. We propose FALAT, a diagnostic framework for failure attribution in LLM agent trajectories. FALAT frames attribution as a dependency-guided search problem. It first constructs an expectation of how the task should be solved and uses this expectation to identify suspicious regions in the trajectory. It then traces dependencies among decisions, tool outputs, and agent messages to distinguish error-introducing steps from steps that merely inherit or propagate prior mistakes. Finally, FALAT evaluates whether correcting a candidate step would be sufficient to recover the expected outcome, allowing it to identify both the responsible agent and the decisive failure step. We evaluate FALAT on the Who&When benchmark, which includes both algorithm-generated and hand-crafted multi-agent failure trajectories. The results show that FALAT consistently improves responsible-agent and decisive-step attribution. Its best configurations achieve 46.0% step-level accuracy on algorithm-generated trajectories and 29.1% on the more challenging hand-crafted trajectories, outperforming specialized attribution baselines and direct prompting with standalone LLMs. These findings suggest that dependency-aware reasoning is essential for reliable failure diagnosis in LLM agent systems.

With the growing adoption of Large Language Model (LLM) agents in persistent, real-world roles, they naturally encounter continuous streams of tasks and inevitable failures. A key limitation, however, is their inability to systematically learn from these mistakes, forcing them to repeat identical errors in similar contexts. Unlike prior training-free methods that primarily store raw instance-level experience or focus on retrieving successful trajectories, we propose Mistake Notebook Learning (MNL), a novel memory framework that enables agents to self-curate generalizable guidance from batch-clustered failures. This mechanism allows agents to distill shared error patterns into structured "mistake notes," updating an external memory only when batch performance improves to ensure stability. To further amplify adaptability, we integrate MNL with test-time scaling, leveraging aggregated failure patterns to actively steer the search process away from known pitfalls. Experiments on mathematical reasoning, Text-to-SQL, and interactive agent benchmarks show that MNL achieves competitive performance compared to existing memory mechanisms and in-context methods in both effectiveness and efficiency. These findings position structured mistake abstraction as a critical lever for robust agent evolution, enabling continuous improvement without the cost of parameter updates. The code is available at https://github.com/Bairong-Xdynamics/MistakeNotebookLearning/tree/main.

Behavior of deep neural networks can be inconsistent between different versions. Regressions during model update are a common cause of concern that often over-weigh the benefits in accuracy or efficiency gain. This work focuses on quantifying, reducing and analyzing regression errors in the NLP model updates. Using negative flip rate as regression measure, we show that regression has a prevalent presence across tasks in the GLUE benchmark. We formulate the regression-free model updates into a constrained optimization problem, and further reduce it into a relaxed form which can be approximately optimized through knowledge distillation training method. We empirically analyze how model ensemble reduces regression. Finally, we conduct CheckList behavioral testing to understand the distribution of regressions across linguistic phenomena, and the efficacy of ensemble and distillation methods.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly capable of tackling complex real-world tasks, yet their reliance on inter-agent coordination, tool use, and long-horizon reasoning makes error recognition particularly challenging. Minor errors can propagate across agents, escalating into task failures while producing long, intertwined execution trajectories that impose significant costs for both human developers and automated systems to debug and analyze. Our key insight is that, despite surface differences in failure trajectories (e.g., logs), MAS errors often recur with similar structural patterns. This paper presents CORRECT, the first lightweight, training-free framework that leverages an online cache of distilled error schemata to recognize and transfer knowledge of failure structures across new requests. This cache-based reuse allows LLMs to perform targeted error localization at inference time, avoiding the need for expensive retraining while adapting to dynamic MAS deployments in subseconds. To support rigorous study in this domain, we also introduce CORRECT-Error, a large-scale dataset of over 2,000 annotated trajectories collected through a novel error-injection pipeline guided by real-world distributions, and further validated through human evaluation to ensure alignment with natural failure patterns. Experiments across seven diverse MAS applications show that CORRECT improves step-level error localization up to 19.8% over existing advances while at near-zero overhead, substantially narrowing the gap between automated and human-level error recognition.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has become central to mathematical reasoning in large language models, yet models remain brittle to early errors: a single arithmetic slip or unjustified inference typically propagates uncorrected to an incorrect final answer. We investigate whether training on intentionally flawed reasoning traces can teach models to detect and recover from such errors without degrading standard problem-solving ability. Using competition-level problems from MATH-lighteval, we generate CoT prefixes containing exactly one controlled error, either a calculation error (sign flips, dropped terms) or a reasoning error (misapplied rules, unjustified logical steps), and fine-tune Qwen3-4B with GRPO using a binary final-answer reward. Our Mixed-CoT-RL model matches standard RL on clean problems (41% vs 41%) while substantially outperforming it on problems prefilled with flawed reasoning (24% vs 19%). Notably, clean-only RL fine-tuning degrades robustness below the untuned baseline 19% vs. 20%), indicating that conventional training increases susceptibility to misleading prefills. Among error types, training on reasoning errors yields greater robustness gains than calculation errors alone, with mixed training performing best. These findings demonstrate that exposure to flawed traces during training can improve error-recovery behavior without sacrificing accuracy, suggesting a path toward more robust mathematical reasoning in LLMs.

Machine learning models are routinely used to support decisions that affect individuals -- be it to screen a patient for a serious illness or to gauge their response to treatment. In these tasks, we are limited to learning models from datasets with noisy labels. In this paper, we study the instance-level impact of learning under label noise. We introduce a notion of regret for this regime, which measures the number of unforeseen mistakes due to noisy labels. We show that standard approaches to learning under label noise can return models that perform well at a population-level while subjecting individuals to a lottery of mistakes. We present a versatile approach to estimate the likelihood of mistakes at the individual-level from a noisy dataset by training models over plausible realizations of datasets without label noise. This is supported by a comprehensive empirical study of label noise in clinical prediction tasks. Our results reveal how failure to anticipate mistakes can compromise model reliability and adoption -- we demonstrate how we can address these challenges by anticipating and avoiding regretful decisions.

Current reasoning paradigms for LLMs include chain-of-thought, ReAct, and post-hoc self-critique. These paradigms rely on two assumptions that fail on long-horizon, multi-stage tasks. As a result, errors accumulate silently across reasoning steps, leaving an open question: can a reasoning system effectively detect and recover from its own failures? We present ReFlect, a harness system for LLM reasoning that creates standalone error detection and recovery logic as a deterministic wrapper around the model. Controlled experiments across 6 reasoning domains show that prompt-level self-critique produces formulaic templates that flag no issues in 90 of 100 audited reflection blocks, and the investigated LLMs wrongly accept a wrong answer in at least 76\% of cases. Our ReFlect harness achieves task success rates ranging from 41\% on gpt-4o-mini to 56\% on Claude Sonnet 4.5 across six models spanning small and frontier scale, with per-model gains over Direct CoT ranging from +7 pp on Qwen2.5-72B to +29 pp on Claude Sonnet 4.5, and additionally raises SWE-bench patch-structural quality from 0\% (Direct CoT) to between 82\% (Qwen2.5-72B) and 87\% (GPT-4o). Notably, the harness gain is inversely proportional to the model's Direct CoT task success rate (the fitted slope is -1.69 with r=-0.76): each pp lost in baseline success rate is mechanically recovered by 1.69 pp of harness gain. We spot that adding structured reasoning state and operators yields only 15.0--18.7\% pair-mean on Llama-3.3-70B and Qwen2.5-72B because models at this scale cannot reliably populate the state its operators require. ReFlect is model-agnostic, training-free, and operates entirely at inference time.

Can small language models achieve strong tool-use performance without complex adaptation mechanisms? This paper investigates this question through Meta-Tool, a controlled empirical study comparing hypernetwork-based LoRA adaptation against carefully designed few-shot prompting. Using a Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct backbone, we evaluate four adaptation mechanisms--few-shot prompting, documentation encoding, hypernetwork-generated LoRA weights, and value-guided beam search--across four diverse benchmarks: Gorilla APIBench, Spider 2.0, WebArena, and InterCode. Our central finding is a well-supported negative result: despite generating non-trivial weight matrices, the 227.8M-parameter hypernetwork provides no measurable improvement over few-shot prompting alone. Comprehensive ablation studies reveal that few-shot examples contribute +21.5% to performance and documentation contributes +5.0%, while the hypernetwork adds 0%. A 3B model with well-designed prompts achieves 79.7% of GPT-5's average performance at 10 times lower latency. Error analysis across 722 failure cases spanning all shot counts (0--5) shows that at the 5-shot configuration (106 failures), failure modes are task-dependent: schema-heavy tasks (Spider 2.0, WebArena) show near-zero format errors with remaining failures semantic, while format errors dominate on Gorilla (100%) and InterCode (70%). These findings redirect practitioners toward prompt engineering and example curation rather than complex adaptation architectures.

Program errors can occur in any type of programming, and can manifest in a variety of ways, such as unexpected output, crashes, or performance issues. And program error diagnosis can often be too abstract or technical for developers to understand, especially for beginners. The goal of this paper is to present a novel machine-learning approach for Multi-task Program Error Repair and Explanatory Diagnosis (mPRED). A pre-trained language model is used to encode the source code, and a downstream model is specifically designed to identify and repair errors. Programs and test cases will be augmented and optimized from several perspectives. Additionally, our approach incorporates a "chain of thoughts" method, which enables the models to produce intermediate reasoning explanations before providing the final correction. To aid in visualizing and analyzing the program structure, we use a graph neural network for program structure visualization. Overall, our approach offers a promising approach for repairing program errors across different programming languages and providing helpful explanations to programmers.

How neuronal circuits achieve credit assignment remains a central unsolved question in systems neuroscience. Various studies have suggested plausible solutions for back-propagating error signals through multi-layer networks. These purely functionally motivated models assume distinct neuronal compartments to represent local error signals that determine the sign of synaptic plasticity. However, this explicit error modulation is inconsistent with phenomenological plasticity models in which the sign depends primarily on postsynaptic activity. Here we show how a plausible microcircuit model and Hebbian learning rule derived within an adaptive control theory framework can resolve this discrepancy. Assuming errors are encoded in top-down dis-inhibitory synaptic afferents, we show that error-modulated learning emerges naturally at the circuit level when recurrent inhibition explicitly influences Hebbian plasticity. The same learning rule accounts for experimentally observed plasticity in the absence of inhibition and performs comparably to back-propagation of error (BP) on several non-linearly separable benchmarks. Our findings bridge the gap between functional and experimentally observed plasticity rules and make concrete predictions on inhibitory modulation of excitatory plasticity.

Prior work has shown that fine-tuning models on a narrow domain with misaligned data can lead to broad misalignment - a phenomenon termed "emergent misalignment" (Betley et al. 2025). While all tested models were susceptible to emergent misalignment, some models showed more resistance than others. Specifically the Qwen-2.5 family proved to be relatively resistant, while GPT-4o exhibited the strongest misalignment. In this paper we evaluate if current-generation open-weights models exhibit similar resistance to the Qwen-2.5 family and measure misalignment robustness over a range of model architectures and scales. We replicate the effect across nine modern open-weights models (Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 families, 1B-32B parameters). Models fine-tuned on insecure code generation show a 0.68% misalignment rate (compared to 0.07% for base models), matching the lower end of prior open-model results but dramatically lower than GPT-4o's 20%. We identify a critical format-dependent vulnerability: requiring JSON output doubles misalignment rates compared to natural language prompts (0.96% vs 0.42%). This suggests that structural constraints may bypass safety training by reducing the model's 'degrees of freedom' to refuse. These findings confirm emergent misalignment as a reproducible phenomenon in modern open-weights models, with rates substantially lower than observed in proprietary systems.

Although large language models (LLMs) have become transformative, they still make mistakes and can explore unproductive reasoning paths. Self-correction is an important capability for a trustworthy LLM, particularly an autoregressive LLM. While LLMs can identify error in user input, they exhibit a systematic 'Self-Correction Blind Spot' - failing to correct identical error in their own outputs. To systematically study this phenomenon, we introduce Self-Correction Bench, a systematic framework to measure this phenomenon through controlled error injection at three complexity levels. Testing 14 models, we find an average 64.5% blind spot rate. We find multiple evidences that this limitation relates to training data composition: human training demonstrations predominantly show error-free responses rather than error-correction sequences, unlike RL-trained models that learn error correction through outcome feedback. Remarkably, simply appending "Wait" reduces blind spots by 89.3%, suggesting that the capability exists but requires activation. Our work highlights a critical limitation in current LLMs and offers potential avenues for improving their reliability and trustworthiness.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) can achieve competitive performance by converting already existing well-trained Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), avoiding further costly training. This property is particularly attractive in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where training through environment interaction is expensive and potentially unsafe. However, existing conversion methods perform poorly in continuous control, where suitable baselines are largely absent. We identify error amplification as the key cause: small action approximation errors become temporally correlated across decision steps, inducing cumulative state distribution shift and severe performance degradation. To address this issue, we propose Cross-Step Residual Potential Initialization (CRPI), a lightweight gradient-free mechanism that carries over residual membrane potentials across decision steps to suppress temporally correlated errors. Experiments on continuous control benchmarks with both vector and visual observations demonstrate that CRPI can be integrated into existing conversion pipelines and substantially recovers lost performance. Our results highlight continuous control as a critical and challenging benchmark for ANN-to-SNN conversion, where small errors can be strongly amplified and impact performance. Code is available at https://github.com/xuzijie32/ANN2SNN-CRPI.

Ambient AI scribes draft clinical notes under the reassurance that a clinician signs every note. We audited three commercial AI scribes on the same 142 consultations: 565 notes from recorded UK primary-care and US ambulatory encounters plus authored scenarios. Twelve discovery passes proposed 13,678 candidate errors; the 5,898 clearing an importance filter went to an adversarial panel of two models from different families, each told to refute what it could, and 618 survived. One note in three (31.3% [27.0, 35.6]) carries a verified failure, concentrated in allergy and medication information, invented patient identity, and history written up as examination on telephone consultations that can contain none. No product was given a patient record; setting aside the two classes a record would have prefilled, invented identity and dates, the rate is 24.8% [20.8, 29.0]. One failure mode did not fit our scheme, drawn from published scribe-error taxonomies: a treatment the clinician retracts, recorded as delivered care. Two clinicians adjudicated blind, disjoint samples: a physician author upheld 20 of 21 findings (95.2% [77.3, 99.2]) and an independent clinician, not an author, 12 of 12 ([75.8, 100]); both judged every sampled refusal genuine. A failure rate depends on the instrument as much as the scribes. With model, evidence and settings fixed, the review instruction alone moves the share of candidates verified from 9.3% to 79.0%, and the reviewing family moves it too: alone at that instruction the gentler flags 54.8% of notes against 27.8%. Between 28% and 97% of sampled notes carry a failure depending on the standard. Published audits disagree among themselves by a margin instrument differences alone can produce: omission is 54-86% of their errors against our 23.1%. We release all 618 findings with transcript-side evidence, every prompt and model version, and the re-runnable pipeline.

When multi-agent systems (MAS) fail, identifying where the decisive error occurred is the first step for automated recovery to an earlier state. Error attribution remains a fundamental challenge due to the long interaction traces that large language model-based MAS generate. This paper presents a framework for error attribution based on conformal prediction (CP) which provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees. We introduce new algorithms for filtration-based CP designed for sequential data such as agent trajectories. Unlike existing CP algorithms, our approach predicts sets that are contiguous sequences to enable efficient recovery and debugging. We verify our theoretical guarantees on a variety of agents and datasets, show that errors can be precisely isolated, then use prediction sets to rollback MAS to correct their own errors. Our overall approach is model-agnostic, and offers a principled uncertainty layer for MAS error attribution. We release code at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/conformal-agent-error-attribution.

Recent works have shown the benefits to LLMs from fine-tuning golden-standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales or using them as correct examples in few-shot prompting. While humans can indeed imitate correct examples, learning from our mistakes is another vital aspect of human cognition. Hence, a question naturally arises: can LLMs learn and benefit from their mistakes, especially for their reasoning? This study investigates this problem from both the prompting and model-tuning perspectives. We begin by introducing CoTErrorSet, a new benchmark with 609,432 questions, each designed with both correct and error references, and demonstrating the types and reasons for making such mistakes. To explore the effectiveness of those mistakes, we design two methods: (1) Self-rethinking prompting guides LLMs to rethink whether they have made similar previous mistakes; and (2) Mistake tuning involves finetuning models in both correct and incorrect reasoning domains, rather than only tuning models to learn ground truth in traditional methodology. We conduct a series of experiments to prove LLMs can obtain benefits from mistakes in both directions. Our two methods offer potentially cost-effective strategies by leveraging errors to enhance reasoning capabilities, which costs significantly less than creating meticulously hand-crafted golden references. We ultimately make a thorough analysis of the reasons behind LLMs' errors, which provides directions that future research needs to overcome. CoTErrorSet will be published soon on \url{https://github.com/YookiTong/Learn-from-Mistakes-CotErrorSet}.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

Testing equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices is challenging when many entries differ only slightly. Dependence among sample covariance entries can also affect the finite-sample size and power of tests that aggregate their differences. We propose a studentized ell_2-type statistic that averages squared, marginally standardized differences between corresponding entries of the two sample covariance matrices. Before constructing the statistic, we apply the same nonsingular linear transformation to both samples. In the transformed coordinates, the covariance-equality hypothesis is unchanged, whereas the standardized differences and correlations among their estimators generally change. The transformation can therefore incorporate structural or scientific information without reducing dimension. We approximate the null distribution using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that uses coordinatewise studentization and avoids forming or inverting the full covariance matrix of the vectorized sample covariance entries. For deterministic transformations, we derive nonasymptotic Gaussian and bootstrap approximation bounds and establish asymptotic size validity and power consistency. We also show that replacing a population transformation by a same-sample estimator leaves the statistic and bootstrap critical value asymptotically unchanged in relative terms under an operator-norm convergence condition. Simulations show that suitable transformations improve size accuracy and power under weak dependence. An analysis of breast cancer gene-expression data illustrates the method.

Translating sequential programming priors into the parallel temporal logic of hardware design remains a crucial bottleneck for large language models(LLM). To investigate this, we introduce a new error taxonomy grounded in problem solvability, inspired by cognitive theory. Our taxonomy categorizes failures into syntactic, semantic, solvable functional, and unsolvable functional types. Evaluations reveal a strict empirical ceiling on the VerilogEval benchmark, as frontier models plateau at a 90.8% initial pass rate. These plateaus are defined by unsolvable functional errors, exposing persistent knowledge gaps immune to test time compute scaling. Furthermore, we expose a striking surface convergence gap: optimization readily eliminates syntax errors but concurrently exacerbates deeper functional failures. Our findings demonstrate that alignment techniques merely teach models to compile. While repeated sampling strategies can patch solvable errors, register-transfer level(RTL) coding capacity remains strictly bounded by pretraining knowledge. Addressing challenges in the current LLM based hardware generation pipeline requires more studies in model reasoning rather than alignment interventions.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

Lean verifies that a generated declaration is well typed, but cannot check whether it states what the user intended. We measure how far compilation overstates faithfulness in statement autoformalization without canonical Lean targets. Our criterion requires Lean compilation and agreement of two LLM judges from different model families. On an independent random audit, it agrees with the human majority on 91.5% of cases; it rarely accepts an unfaithful output but rejects some faithful ones. Across eight systems on 227 university-level statements, the gap between compiling and accepted outputs ranges from 1.3 to 29.5 percentage points: our tool-augmented agent compiles 87.2% of the statements, but only 57.7% are accepted. Human review of all the agent's rejections confirms that 23.8 of its 29.5 points are real translation errors. For the gaps of the seven one-shot systems, a two-stage review by Claude Opus 5.5 with Lean and GPT-6.1 Sol, validated on these human labels, finds that 78-100% are real translation errors for six of them. When GPT-5.2, one of the two judges, grades the translations of two models released after it, GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5, it accepts 83% of the statements for each, against 21% for one-shot GPT-5.2. For these two models, the same review classifies only 4 of their 54 rejections (7%) as translation errors, so most of their measured gap is judge errors rather than translation errors. This is consistent with these systems erring less while the judge does not: the fewer errors a system makes, the smaller the share of its rejections that are translation errors. Finally, a 2^3 tool ablation of the agent shows that Lean feedback drives most of its compilation gain, and that nearly half of this gain fails the semantic criterion. Code and data are available at https://github.com/grenadeComing/beyond-compilation.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

Structural fidelity is essential to scientific methodology diagrams. To communicate research logic, these diagrams must faithfully render components, directional relations, and textual annotations. Since a single error, such as a reversed arrow or an unreadable equation, can invalidate the entire figure, structural fidelity is inherently conjunctive: correctness on one axis cannot compensate for failure on another. Current open-source models fail to satisfy this criterion. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) learns plausible layouts but cannot reliably ensure structural correctness, while scalar reward-based post-training obscures which structural dimension has failed. To address this, we introduce SciForma, a framework for the structure faithful generation of scientific methodology diagrams. Specifically, SciForma decomposes diagram quality into three structural axes: Component, Arrow, and Text, guided by a structural inventory. Built on this foundation, we curate SciFormaData-700K for structured training and SciFormaBench-2K for logic-verified evaluation. To close the gap left by SFT, we develop Multi-Dimensional Conjunctive Preference Optimization (M-DPO), which enforces simultaneous correctness across all axes and adaptively routes gradients to the most deficient dimension in post-training. The same structural inventory also enables iterative editing at inference time to correct residual errors. This combination allows SciForma-9B to exceed all open-source baselines and GPT-Image-1.5 on both SciFormaBench-2K and AIBench, bringing open scientific diagram generation close to proprietary-level structural fidelity. Our code and data will be available at: https://github.com/microsoft/SciForma.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) enable complex problem-solving but introduce significant debugging challenges, characterized by long interaction traces, inter-agent dependencies, and delayed error manifestation. Existing diagnostic approaches often rely on expensive expert annotation or ''LLM-as-a-judge'' paradigms, which struggle to pinpoint decisive error steps within extended contexts. In this paper, we introduce ErrorProbe, a self-improving framework for semantic failure attribution that identifies responsible agents and the originating error step. The framework operates via a three-stage pipeline: (1) operationalizing the MAS failure taxonomy to detect local anomalies, (2) performing symptom-driven backward tracing to prune irrelevant context, and (3) employing a specialized multi-agent team (Strategist, Investigator, Arbiter) to validate error hypotheses through tool-grounded execution. Crucially, ErrorProbe maintains a verified episodic memory that updates only when error patterns are confirmed by executable evidence, without the need for annotation. Experiments across the TracerTraj and Who&When benchmarks demonstrate that ErrorProbe significantly outperforms baselines, particularly in step-level localization, while the verified memory enables robust cross-domain transfer without retraining.

Why do language models sometimes prefer correct statements even when trained on mixed-quality data? We introduce the Compression--Consistency Principle: next-token prediction favors hypotheses that allow shorter and more internally consistent descriptions of the training data. Truth bias emerges only when false alternatives are structurally harder to compress. We test this using small GPT-2-style character-level transformers (3.5M--86M parameters) on synthetic math corpora with controlled mixtures of correct and incorrect rules. In the random-error setting, models strongly prefer correct completions in paired evaluation: 83.1% accuracy at balanced data and 67.0% even when correct rules appear in only 10% of the corpus. Replacing random errors with a coherent but mathematically incorrect rule system largely eliminates the preference (near-chance accuracy). In a more natural-language-like synthetic world, the effect is weaker but still present (57.7%). Additional experiments show that embedding verification steps can restore preference for correctness even at small scale, while increasing the number of consistent rules produces a graded improvement in accuracy. Our results suggest that what appears as a "truth bias" is largely a side effect of compression pressure and preference for internal consistency, rather than an intrinsic drive toward truth. Full code and data are available at https://github.com/Rai220/compression-drives-truth.

Operator-learning benchmarks ship as full-precision arrays, and they have grown to terabyte scale. A curator who wants to distribute one has to decide how coarsely to store it. That decision is usually made by fixing a tolerance on the reconstruction error of the stored field. We show that this quantity is measured in the wrong place. It compares the stored field with the original, before any model is trained. What the curator is buying is the accuracy of a model trained on the compressed copy, and the two can disagree: two PDEBench families stored to identical field error differ threefold downstream. A solution operator smooths, so only part of the codec error ever reaches the model's output. That part can be measured. Push a compressed field through a model already trained at full precision, and compare its output against the output on the clean field. The measurement costs forward passes and no training on compressed data. It spans more than two orders of magnitude across six PDE families, and it orders downstream cost where field error does not, inverting 12 of 104 cross-dataset comparisons against field error's 36. Read as a budget, the same curve nominates a storage rate for each dataset. A back-check against trained models finds those rates wrong in both directions by up to a factor of two in stored bits.

Adding procedural skills to an LLM agent is typically evaluated by average improvement in task success. However, this metric hides an important cost: skills can also make agents worse. We measure both sides by comparing agents with and without skills across nearly 6,000 runs spanning two office automation benchmarks and three model harness stacks. This allows us to distinguish two outcomes. A regression is a task solved without skills but failed after skills are added. A residual failure is a task that fails both with and without skills. We find that regressions are substantial enough that the best performing skills outperform others primarily by regressing less, not by gaining more. We identify three causes of regression: (i) skill description osmosis, a skill changes an agent's behavior simply by being present in context, even when it is never invoked; (ii) grounding displacement, a skill's prescribed procedure overrides how the agent interprets its inputs; and (iii) verification displacement, where the procedure suppresses checks the agent would otherwise perform on its outputs. Analysing persistent failures reveals the same underlying pattern. Existing skills overemphasize procedural guidance the stage least often responsible for failure while under supporting grounding and verification, the dominant sources of remaining errors. After correcting evaluation artifacts and studying traces, we find many regressions and persistent failures recoverable through better grounding and verification. Procedural skills should be evaluated by decomposing their net effect into gains and regressions, not by aggregate improvement alone. We identify three regression modes skills should avoid, and find that reliability depends more on grounding and verification than on procedural skill choice.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

As language models are increasingly deployed in real-world scenarios with important outcomes, the impact of their mistakes often extends far beyond what correctness can capture. In domains like medicine, a single error can lead to serious consequences and put patient safety at risk. However, mainstream evaluation protocols still treat all errors as equal, overlooking the spectrum of real-world costs. To address this, we propose a utility-based evaluation paradigm that explicitly incorporates the varying consequences of errors. Guided by this principle, we develop UtilityBench, a large-scale benchmark of 15,000 instances with verifiable answers, quantifying error severity using Best-Worst Scaling to elicit meaningful, data-driven cost estimates. These quantified utilities shape when a model should answer or abstain, guiding it to make decisions that align with the true importance of each scenario. As another merit, we introduce UtilityAUC, a metric that measures the area under the utility curve determined by a model's response ordering, thereby enabling utility preference alignment beyond error frequency. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that UtilityAUC can distinguish between models where standard accuracy and AURC fall short. Empirically, evaluating 20 state-of-the-art models, we find that greater accuracy or more advanced architectures do not reliably translate to higher UtilityAUC, highlighting a gap between problem-solving ability and responsible decision-making in language model evaluation.

Tool-using AI agents are increasingly deployed across enterprise software systems, yet widely used benchmarks primarily evaluate nominal task completion, conflating baseline planning competence with operational fault recovery. We introduce UndoBench, a benchmark spanning 36 base workflows and 36 fault scenarios across 8 enterprise domains, decoupling task competence from recovery capability via counterfactual paired trials under identical seeds alongside wire-level effect-history and environment-state oracles. On 12 held-out TEST workflows across two open-weight models, two frameworks, and three recovery paradigms (5,760 executions / 2,880 paired trials) in the frozen lost-acknowledgment study, nominal competence reached 83.54% while conditional recovery success rate (CRSR) fell to 46.72%, with naive retry producing duplicate external effects in 53.33% of trials. Extensions to commercial API models reproduced this competence-recovery separation. Evaluations across complementary execution boundaries show that recovery is phase-dependent: before mutation, methods perform similarly without duplicate effects among capable trials; during partial mutation, naive retry, per-call idempotency, and zero-privilege journaling collapse on the evaluated composite workflows; after commit but before acknowledgment, verification and server-side idempotency substantially improve safety. These findings demonstrate that evaluating nominal completion alone masks critical, phase-dependent recovery vulnerabilities in autonomous agents.

Weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ) can alleviate the computational burden of serving large language models (LLMs) at scale. However, existing PTQ methods often fail to generalize across models and suffer severe accuracy loss below 2 bits. Many leverage unstructured sparsity to mitigate this loss, but at the cost of regularity and GPU-friendly execution. We present QTEA, a sub-2-bit PTQ framework that quantizes weights into ternary values and uses salient weights as residual error compensators. To maintain hardware efficiency, residuals are assigned to selected columns with semi-structured \(1{:}4\) sparsity within the salient columns. We further add column-wise rescale refinement to GPTQ-style column-by-column quantization, alternately updating per-column scales and ternary assignments to reduce reconstruction error. We also identify order-dependent error propagation in GPTQ and introduce error decay to attenuate late-stage error accumulation. On Qwen3-14B, QTEA compresses all weights to an effective 1.7 bits per weight while improving average accuracy over the strongest ternary PTQ baseline by 16.7\%. It also achieves 1.40\(\times\) and 2.61\(\times\) lower perplexity on WikiText and C4 respectively. This trend holds on Llama3-8B, where QTEA obtains a 6.6\% accuracy gain and 1.34\(\times\)/1.95\(\times\) lower perplexity on the same datasets. Finally, we develop a lookup-table based kernel that achieves 7.2\(\times\) faster per-token generation over an FP16 baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/Intelligent-Microsystems-Lab/QTEA.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

In the reduced basis method, the evaluation of the a posteriori estimator can become very sensitive to round-off errors. In this note, the origin of the loss of accuracy is revealed, and a solution to this problem is proposed and illustrated on a simple example.

Current language model evaluations measure what models know under ideal conditions but not how robustly they know it under realistic stress. Static benchmarks like MMLU and TruthfulQA cannot distinguish a model that lacks knowledge from one whose verification mechanisms collapse when information degrades or adversaries probe for weaknesses. We introduce the Drill-Down and Fabricate Test (DDFT), a protocol that measures epistemic robustness: a model's ability to maintain factual accuracy under progressive semantic compression and adversarial fabrication. We propose a two-system cognitive model comprising a Semantic System that generates fluent text and an Epistemic Verifier that validates factual accuracy. Our findings, based on evaluating 9 frontier models across 8 knowledge domains at 5 compression levels (1,800 turn-level evaluations), reveal that epistemic robustness is orthogonal to conventional design paradigms. Neither parameter count (r=0.083, p=0.832) nor architectural type (r=0.153, p=0.695) significantly predicts robustness, suggesting it emerges from training methodology and verification mechanisms distinct from current approaches. Error detection capability strongly predicts overall robustness (rho=-0.817, p=0.007), indicating this is the critical bottleneck. We find that flagship models exhibit brittleness despite their scale, while smaller models can achieve robust performance, challenging assumptions about the relationship between model size and reliability. The DDFT framework provides both theoretical foundation and practical tools for assessing epistemic robustness before deployment in critical applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Transformer representations evolve through learned additive transformations that either preserve their current direction or redirect it. We study this evolution as a functional geometry, decomposing learned updates into parallel and perpendicular components. Across pretrained models, we find substantial parallel components beyond the residual identity path. We then apply the decomposition in two spaces: to attention and MLP updates relative to the hidden state, and to attention value aggregation relative to the current token's value. Targeted edits reveal a strongly space-dependent asymmetry: exclude-self value-space parallel manipulation is markedly more robust than residual-space and perpendicular counterparts, preserving the direct self message while scaling only the non-self aggregate. The same decomposition gives a component-resolved description of compression-induced update error: perpendicular error separates compression methods more clearly than parallel error. Extensive experiments further demonstrate that full-aggregate parallel suppression during from-scratch pretraining lowers validation-loss trajectories and improves downstream averages, with the value-space variant strongest. Together, these results connect representation geometry to editing robustness, compression diagnosis, and training-time intervention. Code is available in the https://github.com/Shwai-He/Transformer-Geometry{project repository}.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Understanding the abilities of LLMs to reason about natural language plans, such as instructional text and recipes, is critical to reliably using them in decision-making systems. A fundamental aspect of plans is the temporal order in which their steps needs to be executed, which reflects the underlying causal dependencies between them. We introduce CaT-Bench, a benchmark of Step Order Prediction questions, which test whether a step must necessarily occur before or after another in cooking recipe plans. We use this to evaluate how well frontier LLMs understand causal and temporal dependencies. We find that SOTA LLMs are underwhelming (best zero-shot is only 0.59 in F1), and are biased towards predicting dependence more often, perhaps relying on temporal order of steps as a heuristic. While prompting for explanations and using few-shot examples improve performance, the best F1 result is only 0.73. Further, human evaluation of explanations along with answer correctness show that, on average, humans do not agree with model reasoning. Surprisingly, we also find that explaining after answering leads to better performance than normal chain-of-thought prompting, and LLM answers are not consistent across questions about the same step pairs. Overall, results show that LLMs' ability to detect dependence between steps has significant room for improvement.

Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.

The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature. Although still controversial, the prevailing view is that this trade-off is inherent, either empirically or theoretically. Thus, we dig for the origin of this trade-off in adversarial training and find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance -- an overcorrection towards smoothness. Given this, we advocate employing local equivariance to describe the ideal behavior of a robust model, leading to a self-consistent robust error named SCORE. By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty via robust optimization. By simply substituting KL divergence with variants of distance metrics, SCORE can be efficiently minimized. Empirically, our models achieve top-rank performance on RobustBench under AutoAttack. Besides, SCORE provides instructive insights for explaining the overfitting phenomenon and semantic input gradients observed on robust models. Code is available at https://github.com/P2333/SCORE.

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

A decision model can give probabilities that sum to one for every question yet disagree with itself when the same decision is broken into smaller steps. We study this form of probabilistic coherence in Jev and the English Laya checkpoint, using 2,500 matched examples per system across TREC, CLINC150, and MASSIVE. Across 72,000 classification questions, we compare direct fine-label predictions with broad-category probabilities and predictions reconstructed through those categories. Both systems show substantial disagreement: mean category-level total variation ranges from 0.219 to 0.349 for Jev and from 0.424 to 0.689 for Laya, on a scale where zero means exact agreement. The consequences differ sharply. On CLINC150, reconstruction reduces Jev's accuracy by 22.9 percentage points (paired 95% bootstrap interval: [-24.9, -20.9]) and improves Laya's by 21.3 points ([18.0, 24.5]). The same directions hold across all three datasets, with all six unadjusted accuracy-change intervals excluding zero. Improved accuracy can also accompany less reliable confidence: on MASSIVE, Laya gains 9.2 accuracy points while its expected calibration error rises from 0.046 to 0.124. Error analysis identifies both broad-category mistakes and within-category confusions. These findings show why decision systems need joint evaluation of accuracy, confidence calibration, and probability coherence in the workflow used by an application.

This position paper argues that the machine learning community should prioritize early-stage quality assurance in annotation pipelines over the prevailing practice of late-stage validation. Data quality bottlenecks increasingly limit foundation model improvement, yet quality assurance research focuses almost exclusively on validation methods rather than validation timing. When validation occurs, not merely what methods are employed, fundamentally determines both error rates and annotation costs. This temporal neglect is puzzling given the well-established "shift-left" principle from software engineering, where empirical studies demonstrate 4--100x cost multipliers for defects detected in later stages (Boehm, 1981; Shull et al., 2002). Annotation pipelines exhibit analogous dynamics: errors caught before annotation begins cost a fraction of those discovered after review cycles complete. We propose a taxonomy of three QA trigger points, namely pre-annotation (T0), post-annotation (T1), and post-review (T2), that decompose annotation workflows into discrete validation opportunities. A parametric error-propagation model formalizes when timing affects final error rates versus only economics, making timing a measurable design variable rather than a configuration afterthought. A survey of 47 recent papers reveals that only 4% report when validation occurs, a striking gap given timing's demonstrated impact in adjacent fields. Without explicit attention to QA timing, the community risks optimizing validation methods while ignoring the structural variable that may matter most. Acting on this position requires three steps: researchers should report QA timing configurations alongside validation methods; annotation platforms should expose timing as a first-class parameter; and the community should run controlled experiments that measure stage-specific detection rates directly.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

Memory is becoming a core component of long-horizon AI agents, allowing agents to reuse past experience when operating web browsers, software tools, and other interactive environments. Existing work mostly treats memory as a supply problem, asking what experience to write, how to store it, and which entry to retrieve for the next task. Yet we still lack a clear account of how models consume retrieved memory across a multi-step action trajectory. This consumption process matters because it determines not only what memories should be retrieved, but also what models and control policies are needed to use them safely. To diagnose this process, we propose Entry--Propagation--Recovery (E-P-R), a trajectory-level framework that asks where memory first changes an action, whether that change carries forward, and whether the agent can recover after leaving a correct path. We instantiate E-P-R on WebArena and on MemTrapBench, a controlled benchmark we build to isolate these phases. We find that the main failure often begins at entry: agents adopt conflicting memory at the first exposed decision point even when it is task-wrong. Repeated exposure then amplifies this early error, while recovery after divergence is weak. Together, these effects create a compliance trap: across models, conflicting memory induces similar compliance rates, but once agents comply, their success rates collapse to a low floor. Stronger agents therefore suffer larger absolute damage because each compliance event erases more baseline capability. These results suggest that memory-augmented agents should be evaluated not only by retrieval quality or final success rate, but by how they consume memory throughout the trajectory.

Noisy partial label learning (noisy PLL) is an important branch of weakly supervised learning. Unlike PLL where the ground-truth label must conceal in the candidate label set, noisy PLL relaxes this constraint and allows the ground-truth label may not be in the candidate label set. To address this challenging problem, most of the existing works attempt to detect noisy samples and estimate the ground-truth label for each noisy sample. However, detection errors are unavoidable. These errors can accumulate during training and continuously affect model optimization. To this end, we propose a novel framework for noisy PLL with theoretical guarantees, called ``Adjusting Label Importance Mechanism (ALIM)''. It aims to reduce the negative impact of detection errors by trading off the initial candidate set and model outputs. ALIM is a plug-in strategy that can be integrated with existing PLL approaches. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method can achieve state-of-the-art performance on noisy PLL. \textcolor[rgb]{0.93,0.0,0.47}{Our code can be found in Supplementary Material}.

Post-training quantization reduces the deployment cost of large language models, yet how severely a quantized model degrades is not determined by bit-width alone. We systematically study weight-only post-training quantization across bit-widths, quantization methods, model scales and downstream tasks on multiple model families. We observe that such degradation varies substantially across these factors: 4-bit quantization usually preserves performance, 2-bit often causes broad degradation, and at 3-bit, degradation becomes apparent but varies markedly with task type, quantization method and model scale. To explain this variability, we use the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to measure how strongly quantization perturbs full-precision representations. We trace degradation back to two linked processes: how quantization errors arise within individual modules, and how they accumulate across layers. First, a source SNR decomposition shows that newly introduced errors depend on three factors: the magnitude of the weight error, the strength of the task-specific signal, and how strongly the quantization error aligns with task-specific activations. Different factors affect these components in distinct ways. Second, a cross-layer propagation analysis shows that these errors can be attenuated, preserved, or amplified as they pass across layers, and that larger models benefit from weaker error amplification. Together, these results establish that quantization degradation is governed by how errors are introduced at the source and how they accumulate across the network.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

We consider the task of mapping pseudocode to long programs that are functionally correct. Given test cases as a mechanism to validate programs, we search over the space of possible translations of the pseudocode to find a program that passes the validation. However, without proper credit assignment to localize the sources of program failures, it is difficult to guide search toward more promising programs. We propose to perform credit assignment based on signals from compilation errors, which constitute 88.7% of program failures. Concretely, we treat the translation of each pseudocode line as a discrete portion of the program, and whenever a synthesized program fails to compile, an error localization method tries to identify the portion of the program responsible for the failure. We then focus search over alternative translations of the pseudocode for those portions. For evaluation, we collected the SPoC dataset (Search-based Pseudocode to Code) containing 18,356 programs with human-authored pseudocode and test cases. Under a budget of 100 program compilations, performing search improves the synthesis success rate over using the top-one translation of the pseudocode from 25.6% to 44.7%.

Large language models (LLMs) can produce erroneous responses that sound fluent and convincing, raising the risk that users will rely on these responses as if they were correct. Mitigating such overreliance is a key challenge. Through a think-aloud study in which participants use an LLM-infused application to answer objective questions, we identify several features of LLM responses that shape users' reliance: explanations (supporting details for answers), inconsistencies in explanations, and sources. Through a large-scale, pre-registered, controlled experiment (N=308), we isolate and study the effects of these features on users' reliance, accuracy, and other measures. We find that the presence of explanations increases reliance on both correct and incorrect responses. However, we observe less reliance on incorrect responses when sources are provided or when explanations exhibit inconsistencies. We discuss the implications of these findings for fostering appropriate reliance on LLMs.

Outcome-reward reinforcement learning (RL) has proven effective at improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, standard RL assigns credit only at the level of the final answer, penalizing entire reasoning traces when the outcome is incorrect and uniformly reinforcing all steps when it is correct. As a result, correct intermediate steps may be discouraged in failed traces, while spurious steps may be reinforced in successful ones. We refer to this failure mode as the problem of credit assignment. While a natural remedy is to train a process reward model, accurately optimizing such models to identify corrective reasoning steps remains challenging. We introduce Intervention Training (InT), a training paradigm in which the model performs fine-grained credit assignment on its own reasoning traces by proposing short, targeted corrections that steer trajectories toward higher reward. Using reference solutions commonly available in mathematical reasoning datasets and exploiting the fact that verifying a model-generated solution is easier than generating a correct one from scratch, the model identifies the first error in its reasoning and proposes a single-step intervention to redirect the trajectory toward the correct solution. We then apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to the on-policy rollout up to the point of error concatenated with the intervention, localizing error to the specific step that caused failure. We show that the resulting model serves as a far better initialization for RL training. After running InT and subsequent fine-tuning with RL, we improve accuracy by nearly 14% over a 4B-parameter base model on IMO-AnswerBench, outperforming larger open-source models such as gpt-oss-20b.

Reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1) generate long chains of thought to solve harder problems, but they often loop, repeating the same text at low temperatures or with greedy decoding. We study why this happens and what role temperature plays. With open reasoning models, we find that looping is common at low temperature. Larger models tend to loop less, and distilled students loop significantly even when their teachers rarely do. This points to mismatches between the training distribution and the learned model, which we refer to as errors in learning, as a key cause. To understand how such errors cause loops, we introduce a synthetic graph reasoning task and demonstrate two mechanisms. First, risk aversion caused by hardness of learning: when the correct progress-making action is hard to learn but an easy cyclic action is available, the model puts relatively more probability on the cyclic action and gets stuck. Second, even when there is no hardness, Transformers show an inductive bias toward temporally correlated errors, so the same few actions keep being chosen and loops appear. Higher temperature reduces looping by promoting exploration, but it does not fix the errors in learning, so generations remain much longer than necessary at high temperature; in this sense, temperature is a stopgap rather than a holistic solution. We end with a discussion of training-time interventions aimed at directly reducing errors in learning.

System One models choose an agent's next action by scoring a supplied set of options in a single pass. This makes them fast and cheap, but when they choose wrongly there is nothing to inspect: did the model misread what the agent has seen, or read it correctly and still act wrongly? We answer behaviorally. On a frozen benchmark of agent decision states from simulated environments, customer-service policies, tool use, web navigation and coding, we pair every next-action question with factual probes about the same state, each answered independently. Across seventeen fast systems and a reasoning model, the answer is consistent: most wrong actions follow correct reading, and the more accurate a system, the more of its errors take this form. These errors are not noise; they gather on the same states across systems of every kind. Where the probed facts provably determine the action, models that read every fact still fail to combine them, and their own answers, composed by code, repair the failure. On real states, what is missing is often not a fact but the next sub-goal.

The dominant industry response to AI-generated code quality problems is to deploy AI reviewers. This paper argues that this response is structurally circular when executable specifications are absent: without an external reference, both the generating agent and the reviewing agent reason from the same artefact, share the same training distribution, and exhibit correlated failures. The review checks code against itself, not against intent. Three hypotheses are developed. First, that correlated errors in homogeneous LLM pipelines echo rather than cancel, a claim supported by convergent empirical evidence from multiple 2025-2026 studies and by three small contrived experiments reported here. The first two experiments are same-family (Claude reviewing Claude-generated code); the third extends to a cross-family panel of four models from three families. All use a planted bug corpus rather than a natural defect sample; they are directional evidence, not a controlled demonstration. Second, that executable specifications perform a domain transition in the Cynefin sense, converting enabling constraints into governing constraints and moving the problem from the complex domain to the complicated domain, a transition that AI makes economically viable at scale. Third, that the defect classes lying outside the reach of executable specifications form a well-defined residual, which is the legitimate and bounded target for AI review. The combined argument implies an architecture: specifications first, deterministic verification pipeline second, AI review only for the structural and architectural residual. This is not a claim that AI review is valueless. It is a claim about what it is actually for, and about what happens when it is deployed without the foundation that makes it non-circular.

LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, P(X)=sum_z P(z)P(X|z), when the latent z must be inferred from records in the context? In separate single-turn calls, models are asked for P(X), for P(z) over the latent's states, and for P(X|z); a causal family applies the same test to P(y|do(x)) and the back-door adjustment. Every query has an exact ground-truth probability, and a subset of items is asked in three wordings to separate persistent incoherence from rewording noise. Across seven models, GPT-6.1 Sol and Claude Opus 5.5 are the most coherent (mean absolute residual 0.08 and 0.12 log-odds, about 2 percentage points). Claude Haiku 5.5, Gemini 3.8 Flash and DeepSeek V4-Pro show persistent incoherence (0.27-0.35 log-odds) that is mostly item-specific rather than a shared offset. Within every model, larger residuals go with larger errors against the truth (Spearman 0.40-0.62), so the residual, which needs no ground truth, flags unreliable answers. Reasoning length does not predict coherence, across models or within a model across rewordings of the same question. Simple consistency checks pass almost everywhere; the failures are specific to reasoning through a latent variable. Code and data: https://github.com/ppotash/latent-coherence

Despite the success of deep learning, training deep networks in biologically plausible and hardware-efficient ways remains an open challenge. Feedback alignment (FA) methods address this by replacing backpropagation's symmetric backward weights with fixed random matrices, but their effectiveness depends critically on whether they can be accurately evaluated. The standard evaluation relies on two quantities: task accuracy and cosine similarity between the method's credit signal and the backpropagation gradient. We show that this reporting pair is insufficient by identifying two independent failure modes, both silent under current reporting: (1) measurement degeneracy, where the BP reference gradient collapses to the numerical floor in terminal-LayerNorm residual architectures, rendering cosine uninterpretable; and (2) aggregation collapse, where the aggregate cosine masks layerwise heterogeneity that concentrates credit at one end of the network. To address these limitations, we propose a diagnostic evaluation protocol based on three checks -- scale stability, reference validity, and depth utility -- together with per-layer rather than aggregate cosine reporting. Across multiple architectures and methods, the standard reporting pair gives no signal of failure in any audited case, while our protocol identifies all failures with wide calibration margins. The two failure modes are causally independent: a per-block scale penalty alleviates Mode 1 (residual scale explosion driving reference collapse) without affecting Mode 2 (cosine ranking that contradicts every functional metric we measured). Identifying these silent failures prevents researchers from building on non-functional credit assignment and provides actionable guidance for developing FA methods that genuinely train deep layers.

Self-play is an effective paradigm for language-model self-evolution, but without guidance, solver performance can plateau or decline across rounds. Unguided methods steer question generation with signals such as difficulty, learnability, or diversity. These signals keep questions challenging and varied but do not specify which unresolved reasoning weaknesses later rounds should target. Guided methods obtain direction from external task resources, including human examples, document corpora, or specified difficulty targets, and therefore rely on task information supplied outside the self-play loop. We show that the needed direction can instead be derived from the solver's own failure history. We introduce DiagEvo, whose diagnostician extracts recurring error causes from this history and stores them in a hierarchical error-cause memory. The memory groups related causes under skill nodes and tracks each as Active or Mastered according to self-consistency on targeted questions. The challenger uses these states and recurrence counts to balance cause-targeted generation with free exploration. Double-confidence filtering retains intermediate-difficulty questions only when the most common solver answer has a clear vote lead. DiagEvo derives its curriculum from information produced during self-play, without external task resources. With the default 4B diagnostician, DiagEvo outperforms every baseline in mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks for each of the three solvers: Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B, and OctoThinker-8B. On Qwen3-8B, it reaches 72.3% mean accuracy across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, 4.5 percentage points above R-Zero. Its mean accuracy across all nine benchmarks is 57.4%, 1.1 percentage points above DARC. Ablations show that the hierarchical error-cause memory and double-confidence filtering both contribute to these gains.