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FX2qIsGGQnxfb1dC8Rv6 | will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-alb-96b88624db6a | Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024? | null | 1,706,581,330,206 | 1,735,626,600,000 | 1,735,665,538,077 | NO | 0.016857 | 9,633.333893 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
6wg3vlrnmu | will-jake-paul-win-a-boxing-match-a--cash | Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025? | null | 1,729,692,988,832 | 1,731,875,122,830 | 1,731,938,494,765 | YES | 0.996404 | 4,280.253782 | Sports | Individual Sports |
iJxmIrDNMBJBqDDzEMw6 | will-538-correctly-predict-the-winn | Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,686,002,152,483 | 1,730,947,034,549 | 1,730,947,034,549 | NO | 0.025416 | 3,702.172232 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
tn0w9skib1 | will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1 | Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024? | null | 1,727,218,253,463 | 1,728,048,243,037 | 1,728,048,243,037 | NO | 0.02 | 10,950.036157 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
V3IS2OrKxwdYQhgm3zf1 | will-hakeem-jeffries-be-elected-spe | Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker of the House next year (by January 25th, 2025)? | null | 1,705,883,452,520 | 1,731,527,590,650 | 1,731,527,590,650 | NO | 0.129829 | 365 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1p91gnmil9 | will-richard-ngo-still-be-working-a | Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025? | null | 1,722,927,358,572 | 1,731,557,277,938 | 1,731,557,277,938 | NO | 0.014837 | 7,927.058633 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
zbbc6ylmhm | will-fox-news-call-the-2024-electio | Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night? | null | 1,723,797,017,744 | 1,730,875,939,925 | 1,730,875,939,925 | YES | 0.989244 | 26,482.572168 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
8eQ4u3nIMt9XqcnDNlZL | will-i-register-on-manifoldlove-in | Will I register on manifold.love in 2024? | null | 1,704,178,600,217 | 1,735,671,540,000 | 1,735,678,259,137 | NO | 0.040262 | 458.095658 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
VIJNOO522N5m7bjHHlyy | -2024-ncaaf-will-either-michigan-or | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will either Michigan or Washington appear in the next National Championship game? | null | 1,704,864,893,039 | 1,733,873,494,843 | 1,733,873,494,843 | NO | 0.01 | 2,395.335108 | Sports | College Sports |
yte4ig6erd | will-i-hear-kamala-harris-say-drill | Will I hear Kamala Harris say "drill baby drill" unironically at some point before election day? | null | 1,724,873,194,451 | 1,730,805,550,706 | 1,730,805,550,706 | NO | 0.010004 | 898 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
iiialwbrn2 | will-donald-trump-flip-a-state | Will Donald Trump flip a state? | null | 1,728,249,333,186 | 1,730,782,740,000 | 1,730,898,011,867 | YES | 0.85 | 12,321.805832 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
fnupjwbc6n | will-hazel-upload-again-on-her-main | Will hazel upload again on her main channel before the end of the year? | null | 1,722,926,198,758 | 1,727,809,608,669 | 1,727,809,608,669 | YES | 0.92 | 2,401 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
lvz6iOofXKFkA7qGxJmh | will-shelley-moore-capito-endorse-m | Will Shelley Moore Capito endorse Mike Pence? | null | 1,685,735,327,202 | 1,731,128,340,000 | 1,731,875,010,485 | NO | 0.00767 | 2,643.976083 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
aah2qhc0d2 | will-israel-launch-an-attack-on-ira | Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024? | null | 1,729,498,802,025 | 1,729,905,865,245 | 1,729,905,865,245 | YES | 0.99 | 12,822.682905 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
wbqg81bf1w | trump-vote-share-in-butler-county-p | Trump vote share in Butler County, PA >= 70%? | null | 1,728,517,799,298 | 1,731,092,665,209 | 1,731,092,665,209 | NO | 0.100095 | 2,100 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
JSdVEejrLehONfH5kIFp | will-openai-fundstartbuy-an-ai-chip | Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024? | null | 1,703,616,617,825 | 1,735,681,316,900 | 1,735,681,322,917 | NO | 0.039679 | 32,985.836357 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
ARAhd9IpNU | florida-will-kamala-harris-win-the | Florida | Will Kamala Harris win the state of Florida in the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,730,574,747,977 | 1,730,872,740,000 | 1,730,970,905,327 | NO | 0.022378 | 840 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
LI9At9nhLl | willw-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-dC5EE890L5 | WillW the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 7 than it closed on Nov 6? | null | 1,730,927,098,450 | 1,731,013,316,314 | 1,731,013,316,314 | YES | 0.99 | 1,088.381906 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
JMPvnWCjrMyHyuKVAjq9 | will-the-highest-grossing-movie-of | Will the highest grossing movie (worldwide) of 2024 be rated pg-13 by the MPAA? | null | 1,686,000,493,729 | 1,735,665,199,596 | 1,735,665,199,596 | NO | 0.01 | 606.053707 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
a37wijux9n | will-leyline-of-resonance-be-banned | Will Leyline of Resonance be banned in any official constructed MTG format by December 31st, 2024? | null | 1,726,591,933,766 | 1,729,616,287,687 | 1,729,616,287,687 | YES | 0.99 | 3,709.908412 | Entertainment | Gaming |
pFH25WfpIObivtRor29r | 9-some-of-the-hype-and-herd-mentali | 9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024 | null | 1,703,511,673,629 | 1,734,453,664,214 | 1,734,453,664,214 | NO | 0.01 | 9,772.319962 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Inu2gyy86R | will-trump-post-stop-the-count-in-t | Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election? | null | 1,730,746,703,750 | 1,731,225,540,000 | 1,731,277,795,487 | NO | 0.01 | 27,531.288538 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qSu7t1XoQRphy70l4sc0 | has-eigil-recieved-a-termiation-of | Has Eigil recieved a termiation of his assignment by newyears 24 | null | 1,718,231,121,956 | 1,734,443,157,694 | 1,734,443,157,694 | YES | 0.47641 | 5 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
DlCVBJZA5OUz0uN40sCc | do-lawmakers-still-make-laws | Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩⚖️👨⚖️ | null | 1,703,823,506,623 | 1,734,208,206,539 | 1,734,208,206,539 | YES | 0.972526 | 6,102.384183 | Politics | Government Structure |
XdYULuBu8ygCTPhQIi6c | will-trump-choose-marjorie-taylor-g | Will Trump choose Marjorie Taylor Green as a running mate in for the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,705,321,807,327 | 1,730,576,371,774 | 1,730,576,371,774 | NO | 0.01 | 1,430.380595 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
4l535of0dj | will-trump-win-michigan-in-the-2024--cash | Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,335,224,801 | 1,731,050,569,318 | 1,731,050,569,318 | YES | 0.9901 | 8,180.623811 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
wvt2bwYrWGX1xB8YRGzX | will-aapl-launch-its-own-modem-in-t | Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone? | null | 1,690,910,983,915 | 1,728,368,811,318 | 1,728,368,811,318 | NO | 0.11 | 1,036.765962 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
ZAalhnJj93DDs1ij3TD1 | will-the-top-chatbot-in-2025-think | Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt? | null | 1,702,155,731,815 | 1,726,719,433,310 | 1,726,719,433,310 | YES | 0.9 | 7,112.082996 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
4z6ap6NbFZeJi1Xc3rrP | will-jaylen-brown-demand-a-trade-be | Will Jaylen Brown demand a trade before the 2023-2024 trade deadline? | null | 1,698,285,891,179 | 1,707,541,140,000 | 1,734,208,133,527 | NO | 0.092471 | 110 | Sports | Professional Sports |
83qt5j1yyf | will-kamala-lead-trump-in-both-538 | Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd? | null | 1,726,347,283,422 | 1,726,927,706,788 | 1,726,927,706,788 | YES | 0.99 | 14,449.299328 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
kPDxFAh31lEpJELe1cXg | in-the-next-6-months-will-it-be-pub | In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together? | null | 1,715,755,590,619 | 1,731,657,540,000 | 1,731,670,120,507 | NO | 0.01 | 22,064.76619 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
SLtu5NqSuc | will-the-dallas-cowboys-even-make-t--cash | Will the Dallas Cowboys even make the playoffs in the 2024/25 season? | null | 1,729,873,119,466 | 1,734,915,647,142 | 1,735,278,175,793 | NO | 0.01 | 416.021399 | Sports | Professional Sports |
RUabTM4FfThaIog7UjJ6 | will-sota-on-math-in-sep-2024-utili | Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure? | null | 1,664,378,957,758 | 1,727,755,140,000 | 1,727,821,057,418 | NO | 0.42 | 4,362.784921 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
8pXRC6vbhwRfuPxltKaj | will-colorado-have-abortion-as-a-re | Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024? | null | 1,701,702,348,507 | 1,730,825,880,000 | 1,731,185,717,484 | YES | 0.977482 | 1,087.503991 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
zpy5QR2PuL | profitable-bitcoin-coinflip-2-ev | Profitable Bitcoin Coinflip 2 [EV+] | null | 1,731,153,053,129 | 1,731,301,140,000 | 1,731,306,975,288 | NO | 0.499805 | 8 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
mGG3372iClP5jzhA5i8y | will-an-ai-doctor-replace-the-role-9e864be17634 | Will an AI doctor replace the role of a human doctor in a first world country before the end of 2024? | null | 1,690,450,778,958 | 1,735,651,740,000 | 1,735,677,388,367 | NO | 0.139441 | 581.097324 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
xl4yrxopfy | -2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-mis | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Mississippi State? | null | 1,726,919,463,223 | 1,726,947,093,054 | 1,726,947,093,054 | YES | 0.99 | 9,135.38554 | Sports | Team Sports |
UNy6qAOAAh | -2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-lsu | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat LSU? | null | 1,731,690,108,657 | 1,731,803,145,012 | 1,731,803,145,012 | YES | 0.99 | 9,230.309154 | Sports | Team Sports |
x6y4waUpukvn1pqHtISN | will-tammy-baldwin-win-reelection-i | Will Tammy Baldwin win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Wisconsin? | null | 1,680,634,364,278 | 1,731,037,067,552 | 1,731,037,067,552 | YES | 0.97855 | 964 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lgy7wtu9sz | will-llama-32-be-released-by-octobe | Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024? | null | 1,722,750,607,947 | 1,728,953,914,577 | 1,728,953,914,577 | NO | 0.02 | 68,011.047496 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ybyp1sxjkl | will-nebraska-become-a-winnertakesa | Will Nebraska become a winner-takes-all state before the 2024 US election? | null | 1,727,100,016,639 | 1,730,811,540,000 | 1,730,837,204,246 | NO | 0.01079 | 1,090 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
b1gcemzj04 | will-jake-paul-win-a-boxing-match-a | Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025? | null | 1,729,692,824,361 | 1,731,875,122,830 | 1,731,875,122,830 | YES | 0.99625 | 57,977.385763 | Sports | Individual Sports |
ybxdpmd9hr | will-a-mana-market-resolve-differen | Will a Mana market resolve differently from its Sweep market in 2024? | null | 1,729,649,719,080 | 1,735,590,860,386 | 1,735,590,860,386 | YES | 0.99 | 1,251.524894 | Sports | Professional Sports |
YEm7vYpaOXiNNxq3OUvk | will-any-new-legislation-be-introdu | Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse? | null | 1,711,444,201,763 | 1,734,505,609,907 | 1,734,505,609,907 | YES | 0.99 | 12,625.946322 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
6Ku2DK6ExlaRk5NHgUen | will-china-russia-andor-the-us-deto | Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024? | null | 1,701,309,581,756 | 1,727,841,540,000 | 1,727,865,856,013 | NO | 0.01 | 1,602.04581 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
aPAhAKhpPClTzOE03h7E | will-irisigb-stop-posting-on-x-for | Will iris_igb stop posting on x for a span of at least 3 months by end of 2024 | null | 1,694,498,251,442 | 1,733,502,491,933 | 1,733,502,491,933 | YES | 0.744443 | 70 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
iv2zu8pen2 | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8txrq9t9by | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1129 and 1130? | null | 1,727,813,857,030 | 1,728,413,340,678 | 1,728,413,344,705 | NO | 0.02 | 6,750 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
hew43xf6gu | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-3eaj4xv0u9 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 30 than it closed on Sept 13---5625.94? | null | 1,726,258,265,116 | 1,726,862,650,227 | 1,726,862,650,227 | YES | 0.61 | 25 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
3tsOfcaXVSoQt0iweyJ7 | will-incremental-compilation-make-i | Will incremental compilation make it into Zig before July 2024? | null | 1,702,745,190,173 | 1,719,784,740,000 | 1,735,385,477,159 | NO | 0.1 | 1,916.210612 | Technology | Computing & Software |
Z9Vhc0L7hohKYRtugnYU | will-joker-2-have-a-twist-revealing | Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head? | null | 1,712,724,559,331 | 1,728,100,740,000 | 1,728,838,318,819 | NO | 0.02 | 13,769.435113 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
fS5Y0XZiYQZY8OGDW6lk | will-javier-milei-still-be-presiden | Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024? | null | 1,703,620,782,513 | 1,729,035,245,364 | 1,729,035,245,364 | YES | 0.99 | 11,670.945377 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
tbpBkariGnsF14JmFpit | will-mistral-ai-be-acquired-by-sept | Will Mistral AI be acquired by September 1st 2024? | null | 1,709,077,769,494 | 1,725,260,340,000 | 1,726,999,803,353 | NO | 0.01 | 2,642.202151 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
tYRzxaxhDLPIiQzrYdmo | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-9f6672cd9c02 | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Utah? | null | 1,670,815,614,072 | 1,731,293,241,937 | 1,731,293,241,937 | NO | 0.01 | 4,688.28736 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lqnhf61h4g | will-donald-trump-not-not-not-not-n | Will Donald Trump not not not not not not not not not not lose the election? | null | 1,728,271,925,300 | 1,733,676,031,621 | 1,733,676,031,621 | NO | 0.554954 | 34.093475 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
N1vTst7aLqcWPJBg2Onk | will-trump-pay-any-money-for-defami | Will Trump pay any money for defaming columnist E. Jean Carroll before the US Presidential Elections 2024? | null | 1,706,344,887,029 | 1,730,879,940,000 | 1,730,881,784,896 | NO | 0.072657 | 3,275.270958 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
LKPTt18Jyxo9uvDkyfQn | will-the-2024-republican-nominee-fo | Will the 2024 Republican nominee for President remain the nominee through Election Day? | null | 1,698,509,705,186 | 1,730,851,055,312 | 1,730,851,055,312 | YES | 0.99 | 5,040.830062 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
BtWotE7iHzpPCYOY9JOL | nfl-week-7-oct-21-will-the-tampa-ba | NFL Week 7 (Oct 21): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Baltimore Ravens? | null | 1,715,834,074,900 | 1,729,728,900,000 | 1,729,816,036,614 | NO | 0.01 | 1,013.065791 | Sports | Professional Sports |
388y75oklr | will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett | Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races? | null | 1,725,741,070,467 | 1,727,957,467,920 | 1,727,957,467,920 | YES | 0.99 | 33,279.475185 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ge5bdpwggx | will-jd-vance-or-tim-walz-say-the-w-bt0bl46d01 | Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate? | null | 1,727,814,232,848 | 1,727,852,340,000 | 1,728,349,674,343 | NO | 0.01 | 14,353.785313 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
t88k5y9plm | will-a-vote-to-establish-a-directly | Will a vote to establish a directly elected Los Angeles County executive pass in 2024? | null | 1,720,804,489,875 | 1,731,527,339,466 | 1,731,527,339,466 | YES | 0.76899 | 943.357581 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
UYl4ZuaEITKOHTQZgm8O | when-the-current-500k-grant-for-man-9aa6ef92353a | When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue? | null | 1,682,110,594,150 | 1,726,962,316,360 | 1,727,959,085,722 | YES | 0.84 | 1,324.701173 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
ItQRtPhuch | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-s8IUgzCSSC | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec. 26 than it closed on Dec 24? | null | 1,735,060,436,678 | 1,735,246,930,470 | 1,735,246,930,470 | NO | 0.197731 | 612.885154 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
lUh6s5uP62 | will-tsla-reach-475-before-8pm-est-UUEPEsu95L | Will TSLA reach $475 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025? | null | 1,733,504,368,432 | 1,734,464,063,109 | 1,734,464,063,109 | YES | 0.982421 | 1,054.049248 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ibuh5ei4z1 | will-north-korea-have-an-open-milit | Will North Korea have an open military conflict with South Korea that results in at least 1 death before Dec 1st? | null | 1,725,141,170,668 | 1,733,093,520,000 | 1,733,337,743,029 | NO | 0.013587 | 755 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
qUBnbLnMIuElyJPAYaUT | will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-51af5a4e6350 | Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Florida be greater than in 2020 (3.3%)? | null | 1,707,051,346,669 | 1,730,913,692,135 | 1,730,913,692,135 | YES | 0.99 | 2,635.500911 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lGRdNA9fpvRvl2p9XBG2 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-98486909d387 | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa? | null | 1,670,814,669,053 | 1,731,293,757,981 | 1,731,293,757,981 | NO | 0.01 | 14,184.682146 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qdcu14hqb5 | will-israel-attack-iran-again-withi-bqux4kbxzl | Will Israel attack Iran AGAIN within 2 month of being attacked by them? | null | 1,727,834,784,955 | 1,728,382,752,250 | 1,728,382,752,250 | YES | 0.86 | 190 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
4QkctcRT7M52V80LQKuk | nfl-week-15-dec-15-2024-will-the-ho | NFL Week 15 (Dec 15 2024): Will the Houston Texans (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)? | null | 1,715,834,554,368 | 1,734,458,400,000 | 1,735,276,172,153 | YES | 0.989823 | 1,141.613893 | Sports | Team Sports |
pmnawcgrny | will-the-indictment-against-eric-ad | Will the indictment against Eric Adams be unsealed before the end of Friday the 27th? | null | 1,727,313,318,429 | 1,727,455,276,184 | 1,727,455,276,184 | YES | 0.99 | 899.928905 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
C3E221NfI4k7FAaAAlrE | tp1-average-airfare-wont-rise-or-fa | TP1: Average airfare won’t rise or fall more than 5% (70% conf.) | null | 1,706,381,749,271 | 1,735,051,320,000 | 1,735,133,134,689 | YES | 0.41 | 52.585399 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
91iyjrhs6z | short-fuze-will-openai-release-stra-gal8881uzv | [short fuze] Will OpenAI release strawberry on ChatGPT today (Sep. 12)? | null | 1,726,151,150,597 | 1,726,264,740,000 | 1,727,182,673,039 | YES | 0.99 | 1,473.96035 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
4zh5yCqmvX3bLk9mklcw | will-youtuber-anyaustin-have-at-lea | Will YouTuber any_austin have at least 370k subscribers before 2025? | null | 1,695,530,253,047 | 1,728,063,502,680 | 1,728,063,502,680 | YES | 0.9 | 434.915988 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
5W5RXxESNo3D0PBDEEIY | will-a-convicted-felon-be-elected-p | Will a convicted felon be elected president before 2073? | null | 1,704,460,193,318 | 1,731,204,195,682 | 1,731,204,195,682 | YES | 0.99 | 716.794988 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
0JmTjTqNvp9aFiUoUzGk | will-the-winner-of-florida-in-the-2 | Will the winner of Florida in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state? | null | 1,690,181,530,118 | 1,730,857,412,865 | 1,730,857,412,865 | YES | 0.950994 | 836.929041 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
biaKFKeHsUs7qzBy1O3R | will-the-cryptocurrency-markets-tot | Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years? | null | 1,668,755,555,594 | 1,734,071,832,601 | 1,734,071,832,601 | YES | 0.989041 | 14,720.093184 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
4bzljje9qd | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5kv5aq4vo0 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 26 than it closed on sept 25? | null | 1,727,294,660,478 | 1,727,380,923,193 | 1,727,380,923,193 | YES | 0.99 | 910.945754 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
2qf99iti0c | will-bloomberg-launch-a-page-contai | Will Bloomberg launch a page containing Manifold data? | null | 1,724,483,386,368 | 1,730,752,823,358 | 1,730,752,823,358 | YES | 0.99 | 1,056.285259 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
YGJEhT9VVDdnI6PVW5HT | will-the-california-prohibit-state | Will the "California Prohibit State Limitations on Local Rent Control" Ballot Initiative be Approved on November 5 2024 | null | 1,707,060,921,003 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,896,263,803 | NO | 0.172981 | 439.814269 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
V2zdLhHaMOxM2PLN34ge | nfl-week-17-dec-29-2024-will-the-bu | NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the New York Jets (away)? | null | 1,715,834,669,850 | 1,735,668,000,000 | 1,735,669,076,100 | YES | 0.99 | 1,000.333479 | Sports | Team Sports |
lrk91kn65h | will-trump-win-arizona-and-michigan | Will Trump win Arizona AND Michigan? | null | 1,728,932,987,371 | 1,731,560,340,000 | 1,731,560,450,575 | YES | 0.989921 | 1,541.287017 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nLwiScRZuhKKijnQc4cU | will-rfk-influence-the-presidential | Will RFK get at least 10 million popular votes in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,710,602,641,093 | 1,730,748,900,000 | 1,735,407,479,830 | NO | 0.033861 | 5,091.60751 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
i0tqp0dabd | will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos--cash | Will SpaceX land/catch a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound Starship flight, in 2024? | null | 1,728,151,938,042 | 1,728,823,077,830 | 1,729,455,525,653 | YES | 0.85 | 274.471112 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
kFcfuvuNuxpOfGT8io43 | will-the-phaseout-of-coal-from-the | Will the phaseout of Coal from the UK power grid be completed as planned in September 2024? | null | 1,710,011,419,097 | 1,727,767,013,873 | 1,727,767,013,873 | YES | 0.97 | 6,803.439107 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
t5UHNC3750wBROpoQYEp | will-shanks-and-luffy-meet-again-in | Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2024? | null | 1,709,668,631,706 | 1,735,671,591,393 | 1,735,671,591,393 | NO | 0.023503 | 1,260.999974 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
wd6jpcu0om | san-francisco-proposition-a-passes | San Francisco Proposition A Passes: School Facilities Bond 2024-11 | null | 1,728,435,459,758 | 1,731,571,140,000 | 1,731,575,119,842 | YES | 0.986505 | 755 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
846vucfw5s | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-izvg4vcjv9 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 9 than it closed on Oct 8? | null | 1,728,417,896,359 | 1,728,504,130,981 | 1,728,504,130,981 | YES | 0.99 | 1,146.322482 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
g61fsj6a8k | will-trump-win-arizona-and-north-ca | Will Trump win Arizona AND North Carolina? | null | 1,729,091,757,344 | 1,731,560,340,000 | 1,731,560,458,782 | YES | 0.99 | 1,001.141522 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
6ztqgmgwxv | will-i-have-a-draft-of-the-next-man | Will I have a draft of the next Manifold newsletter by noon? | null | 1,729,584,898,687 | 1,729,623,600,000 | 1,729,623,610,619 | NO | 0.68 | 491.588527 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
Sty9sslCEI | will-olaf-scholz-win-the-vote-of-co | Will Olaf Scholz win the vote of confidence? | null | 1,733,716,497,956 | 1,734,710,797,505 | 1,734,710,797,505 | NO | 0.01334 | 760 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
aS8U3TrXjd7fW2KXOfnq | will-the-next-australian-federal-el-54cefcaca36b | Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024? | null | 1,685,950,005,508 | 1,735,636,865,289 | 1,735,636,865,289 | NO | 0.010003 | 2,005.510488 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
klfqigamgd | will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-no | Will Joe Biden still be alive on November 1st, 2024? | null | 1,727,534,434,092 | 1,730,440,740,000 | 1,730,474,689,465 | YES | 0.99 | 938.243911 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
sUqd8AIgEc | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-SgLPQyLLzL | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 30 than it closed on Oct 29? | null | 1,730,232,337,090 | 1,730,318,553,091 | 1,730,318,553,091 | NO | 0.053806 | 530.817505 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
JDyjFmIQr1yRqndo5ogL | will-nvidia-have-more-than-75-of-th | Will NVIDIA have more than 75% of the Data center market share by revenue in 2024? | null | 1,702,915,877,742 | 1,734,271,661,436 | 1,734,271,661,436 | YES | 0.874133 | 2,794.162403 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
mpbr1o2h02 | -shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-7p9jno7a18 | 🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | null | 1,726,855,330,233 | 1,726,869,729,738 | 1,726,869,815,789 | YES | null | 1,919.116114 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
PeHlYXP12QTTFpWjn235 | if-donald-trump-is-the-2024-nominee | If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election? | null | 1,674,459,940,037 | 1,730,926,518,402 | 1,730,926,518,402 | YES | 0.9866 | 12,964.341374 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
DJOSvpDykIfb2AUnFBeB | 2024-formula-1-season-will-any-race | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any race be canceled or switched before the start of its respective race weekend? | null | 1,691,770,731,648 | 1,733,685,853,938 | 1,733,685,853,938 | NO | 0.012154 | 11,106.486026 | Sports | Professional Sports |
WA8sqABMSw4H3mhFRZr2 | will-cruises-driverless-robotaxi-se | Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024 | null | 1,698,649,516,418 | 1,733,867,146,588 | 1,733,867,146,588 | YES | 0.859541 | 4,743.872361 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
1vm0yc679d | will-harris-win-the-popular-vote-in | Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election? | null | 1,728,991,235,106 | 1,732,753,237,767 | 1,732,753,237,767 | NO | 0.01 | 44,138.067157 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
K19YMoUiaJ7FpSXX7Pd3 | will-ron-desantis-appear-on-the-joe | Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections? | null | 1,669,115,984,040 | 1,731,328,909,015 | 1,731,328,909,015 | NO | 0.01 | 12,641.743024 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
mA90DR34Y0lwFgBrw4L2 | will-mitch-mcconnell-stop-being-sen-d1c5e8a93cb4 | Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2027? | null | 1,704,243,463,487 | 1,731,528,753,594 | 1,731,528,753,594 | YES | 0.981557 | 4,895.342032 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
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