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Will the 52nd Mersenne prime be discovered before the end of 2024?
YES
Will NVIDIA be higher in a week?
YES
Will LeBron James ever play an NBA game with his son Bronny?
YES
Will Donald Trump be convicted of obstruction of justice in the documents case?
NO
Will Trump’s January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day?
NO
Will Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2024?
YES
Will all Manifold features be available to the majority of EU users at the end of 2024?
NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
YES
Will Tim Walz win the VP debate?
NO
Will Nikki Haley be the next President of the United States?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 10 than it closed on Oct 9?
NO
Will there be a split between the popular vote and the electoral college in 2024?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter be alive AND King Charles still be king AND Nvidia stock is $90 AND BTC above $65K at EOY 2024?
NO
Will a new indictment against Trump be announced between October 1st and the election?
NO
Will Dalle-4 be released before Sep 2024?
NO
Will Kamala brand herself as Tough On Crime going into the election?
NO
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
NO
Will QQQ close above 525 on any day of 2024?
YES
Will any of the Hololive ReGLOSS vtubers get 1 million subs on YouTube before 2025?
YES
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
NO
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 30M views?
NO
Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate (at the moment, Trump and Harris) will concede defeat by Dec. 5, 2024.
NO
Will Ryan Wesley Routh be alive in one week?
YES
Will Manifold support the veto of AI regulations bill SB 1047?
NO
Will there be a deep sea expedition sent to recover/visit the wreckage of the Oceangate Titan sub before EOY 2035?
YES
Will Max Harms release the full Crystal trilogy in audiobook form by end of Q3 2024?
YES
Bitcoin $100K by Mar 31, 2025?
YES
Will another Bill Watterson project be announced other than The Mysteries before 2025?
NO
Will Scott Wiener be re-elected to the California senate?
YES
Will I make qualify for Masters league for first time this month?
NO
Will JD Vance release any of his tax returns before election day?
NO
Will Boston Bruins win tonight under new coach, Joe Sacco? Game against Utah Hockey Club?
YES
Will Joe Rogan do a podcast with Donald Trump?
YES
NFL Week 11 (Nov 14 2024): Will the Philadelphia Eagles (home) beat the Washington Commanders (away)?
YES
Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024?
YES
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will any former Pac-12 team win its new conference's championship in the first year of membership?
YES
Will Polymarket's election odds match Nate Silver's (+/- 5) on election night?
NO
Will Mike Pence endorse Trump?
NO
Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected in November 2024?
YES
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 170M views?
NO
Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state?
NO
Will Taylor Swift have announced/released all of her rerecordings before the scheduled end of the Eras Tour on 8/12/24?
NO
Will Kamala Harris appear on “Hot Ones” before 10/31/24?
NO
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024?
NO
Daily coinflip
NO
NFL Week 13 (Dec 1 2024): Will the Baltimore Ravens (home) beat the Philadelphia Eagles (away)?
NO
Will Sri Lanka's current president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, win the presidential election in 2024?
NO
NFL Week 16 (Dec 22 2024): Will the Los Angeles Chargers (home) beat the Denver Broncos (away)?
YES
Will Fallout win Best Adaptation at The Game Awards?
YES
Will any U.S. State have more than 50,000 customers without power on or before 12/31/2024?
YES
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page?
YES
Will the Long Term Future Fund exist in a year?
YES
Will the current Congress pass immigration reform before the election?
NO
Will Rep. Dean Phillips win the US 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Alaska vote to repeal Ranked Choice Voting by the end of 2024?
NO
Will OpenAI rebrand or change their name, even as a joke, in 2024?
NO
Will "The Penguin" (Batman spinoff TV show) have an IMDB rating >7.5, one week after release?
YES
Will Donald Trump be eligible to vote in the 2024 election?
YES
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of October?
NO
Will the majority of countries that pause funding to UNRWA in 2024 renew the funding in less than a year?
YES
Will MLB’s Chicago White Sox set a new record for the most losses (121+) this season?
YES
Will OpenAI / Dall-E support real-time AI image generation in 2024?
NO
NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars (home) beat the Tennessee Titans (away)?
YES
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
NO
Will Kirsten Gillibrand win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in New York?
YES
Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024?
NO
Will Trump reach 69% on Polymarket before Election Day?
NO
Will Tesla Cross $1tn valuation in 2024
YES
Will a candidate from the "Forward Party" be elected to Congress by the end of 2024?
NO
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
YES
Will Destiny talk to Mehdi Hasan during 2024?
YES
🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 17 game end in Scorigami?
NO
Will any US state fail to certify the election and submit a slate of electors before Jan/1/2025?
NO
KYLIAN MBAPPE will score more than 59 goals in all competitions in 2024?
NO
Will Starship's 6th test successfully complete an in-space relight and burn?
YES
Will a third party get more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elections?
NO
Will market creators be able to bet on their own market in 2024?
YES
Will at least 3 US presidential debates occur in the 2024 election
NO
Will Nebraska's Second Congressional District (NE-02) stay blue in 2024?
YES
Will Xi Jinping visit any country in South America by the end of 2024?
YES
Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm?
NO
Will Rupert Murdoch win his court case against his kids?
NO
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
YES
Will "OpenAI" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
NO
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024?
YES
Will a presidential candidate will be deceased (from natural causes) before the general elections
NO
Will Joker: Folie à Deux get above a 6.0 on IMDb or a 3.0 on Letterboxd?
NO
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
NO
Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate election?
YES
Will the first attempt to catch a starship booster with Mechazilla result in the booster exploding
NO
Will Australian inflation be 3.2% or greater in Q3 2024?
NO
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 senatorial race?
YES
NFL Week 5 (Oct 6): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the New York Giants?
NO
Do Cyber Trucks have a rust problem?
NO
Will Trump regularly tweet until the election?
YES
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before the 2024 election?
NO
Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024?
NO
Will Manifold Reach 2000 Daily Active Users in Nov 2024?
YES
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 23 than it closed on Sept 20?
YES
Will Daniel Ricciardo remain an RB driver for the entire 2024 Formula 1 season?
NO