question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2
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Will the 52nd Mersenne prime be discovered before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will NVIDIA be higher in a week? | YES |
Will LeBron James ever play an NBA game with his son Bronny? | YES |
Will Donald Trump be convicted of obstruction of justice in the documents case? | NO |
Will Trump’s January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day? | NO |
Will Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2024? | YES |
Will all Manifold features be available to the majority of EU users at the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Tim Walz win the VP debate? | NO |
Will Nikki Haley be the next President of the United States? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 10 than it closed on Oct 9? | NO |
Will there be a split between the popular vote and the electoral college in 2024? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter be alive AND King Charles still be king AND Nvidia stock is $90 AND BTC above $65K at EOY 2024? | NO |
Will a new indictment against Trump be announced between October 1st and the election? | NO |
Will Dalle-4 be released before Sep 2024? | NO |
Will Kamala brand herself as Tough On Crime going into the election? | NO |
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5? | NO |
Will QQQ close above 525 on any day of 2024? | YES |
Will any of the Hololive ReGLOSS vtubers get 1 million subs on YouTube before 2025? | YES |
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 30M views? | NO |
Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate (at the moment, Trump and Harris) will concede defeat by Dec. 5, 2024. | NO |
Will Ryan Wesley Routh be alive in one week? | YES |
Will Manifold support the veto of AI regulations bill SB 1047? | NO |
Will there be a deep sea expedition sent to recover/visit the wreckage of the Oceangate Titan sub before EOY 2035? | YES |
Will Max Harms release the full Crystal trilogy in audiobook form by end of Q3 2024? | YES |
Bitcoin $100K by Mar 31, 2025? | YES |
Will another Bill Watterson project be announced other than The Mysteries before 2025? | NO |
Will Scott Wiener be re-elected to the California senate? | YES |
Will I make qualify for Masters league for first time this month? | NO |
Will JD Vance release any of his tax returns before election day? | NO |
Will Boston Bruins win tonight under new coach, Joe Sacco? Game against Utah Hockey Club? | YES |
Will Joe Rogan do a podcast with Donald Trump? | YES |
NFL Week 11 (Nov 14 2024): Will the Philadelphia Eagles (home) beat the Washington Commanders (away)? | YES |
Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024? | YES |
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will any former Pac-12 team win its new conference's championship in the first year of membership? | YES |
Will Polymarket's election odds match Nate Silver's (+/- 5) on election night? | NO |
Will Mike Pence endorse Trump? | NO |
Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected in November 2024? | YES |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 170M views? | NO |
Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state? | NO |
Will Taylor Swift have announced/released all of her rerecordings before the scheduled end of the Eras Tour on 8/12/24? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris appear on “Hot Ones” before 10/31/24? | NO |
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024? | NO |
Daily coinflip | NO |
NFL Week 13 (Dec 1 2024): Will the Baltimore Ravens (home) beat the Philadelphia Eagles (away)? | NO |
Will Sri Lanka's current president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, win the presidential election in 2024? | NO |
NFL Week 16 (Dec 22 2024): Will the Los Angeles Chargers (home) beat the Denver Broncos (away)? | YES |
Will Fallout win Best Adaptation at The Game Awards? | YES |
Will any U.S. State have more than 50,000 customers without power on or before 12/31/2024? | YES |
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page? | YES |
Will the Long Term Future Fund exist in a year? | YES |
Will the current Congress pass immigration reform before the election? | NO |
Will Rep. Dean Phillips win the US 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Alaska vote to repeal Ranked Choice Voting by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will OpenAI rebrand or change their name, even as a joke, in 2024? | NO |
Will "The Penguin" (Batman spinoff TV show) have an IMDB rating >7.5, one week after release? | YES |
Will Donald Trump be eligible to vote in the 2024 election? | YES |
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of October? | NO |
Will the majority of countries that pause funding to UNRWA in 2024 renew the funding in less than a year? | YES |
Will MLB’s Chicago White Sox set a new record for the most losses (121+) this season? | YES |
Will OpenAI / Dall-E support real-time AI image generation in 2024? | NO |
NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Jacksonville Jaguars (home) beat the Tennessee Titans (away)? | YES |
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024? | NO |
Will Kirsten Gillibrand win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in New York? | YES |
Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024? | NO |
Will Trump reach 69% on Polymarket before Election Day? | NO |
Will Tesla Cross $1tn valuation in 2024 | YES |
Will a candidate from the "Forward Party" be elected to Congress by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024? | YES |
Will Destiny talk to Mehdi Hasan during 2024? | YES |
🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 17 game end in Scorigami? | NO |
Will any US state fail to certify the election and submit a slate of electors before Jan/1/2025? | NO |
KYLIAN MBAPPE will score more than 59 goals in all competitions in 2024? | NO |
Will Starship's 6th test successfully complete an in-space relight and burn? | YES |
Will a third party get more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elections? | NO |
Will market creators be able to bet on their own market in 2024? | YES |
Will at least 3 US presidential debates occur in the 2024 election | NO |
Will Nebraska's Second Congressional District (NE-02) stay blue in 2024? | YES |
Will Xi Jinping visit any country in South America by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm? | NO |
Will Rupert Murdoch win his court case against his kids? | NO |
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | YES |
Will "OpenAI" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | NO |
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024? | YES |
Will a presidential candidate will be deceased (from natural causes) before the general elections | NO |
Will Joker: Folie à Deux get above a 6.0 on IMDb or a 3.0 on Letterboxd? | NO |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | NO |
Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate election? | YES |
Will the first attempt to catch a starship booster with Mechazilla result in the booster exploding | NO |
Will Australian inflation be 3.2% or greater in Q3 2024? | NO |
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 senatorial race? | YES |
NFL Week 5 (Oct 6): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the New York Giants? | NO |
Do Cyber Trucks have a rust problem? | NO |
Will Trump regularly tweet until the election? | YES |
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before the 2024 election? | NO |
Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024? | NO |
Will Manifold Reach 2000 Daily Active Users in Nov 2024? | YES |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 23 than it closed on Sept 20? | YES |
Will Daniel Ricciardo remain an RB driver for the entire 2024 Formula 1 season? | NO |
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