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Will Mikheil Kavelashvili be elected as President of Georgia
YES
Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term?
YES
Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024?
NO
Will Harris win a state in the 2024 election that Biden lost in 2020?
NO
Will Iran hit Israel within 7 days of being attacked by them?
NO
Will Pennsylvania DA stop Elon Musk PAC from $1M daily voter giveaways before Election Day?
NO
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?
YES
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Giants?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 11 than it closed on Dec 10?
YES
Will Kamala Harris’s "Brat Summer" carry through till November?
NO
Will Dan Osborn (Independent) be within 10 points of Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent) in the Nebraska Senate election?
YES
Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 before $40,000?
YES
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 United States presidential election?
NO
Daily coinflip
NO
Will GODZILLA X KONG have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than the next Palme d'Or winner at Cannes?
YES
Will Anthropic release an API related to agent use on October 22, 2024?
YES
Will I (Cynthia) get a full time job by the end of 2024?
YES
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO?
YES
Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election?
NO
Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024?
NO
Will any of the videos uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 200k views?
YES
Will Guilherme Boulos be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024?
NO
Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time?
YES
Will the Democrats control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives after the 2024 election?
YES
Does Manifold think AI is right-wing technology?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 14 than it closed on Nov 13?
NO
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September?
YES
Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in Oct 2024?
YES
Will a third party candidate qualify for at least one U.S. presidential debate in 2024?
NO
Will Pat Gelsinger be removed or announce he is stepping down as Intel CEO by the end of 2024?
YES
Will me and @PeterBennett (hand-brain) defeat @NicholasCharette at chess?
NO
Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024?
YES
Will Bottas get more Points then Zhou in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
NO
Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024?
NO
Will Wizards of the Coast release any white-bordered cards before 2025?
YES
Will California vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
YES
Will Trump win at least ten states?
YES
Will Vivek Ramaswamy run for president in the 2024 election as a Libertarian or Independent?
NO
Will $SOL (Solana) reaches more than $250 USD anytime within 2024?
YES
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election?
NO
Will Trump say all 50 states before the election?
NO
Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2023) win Worlds in 2024?
YES
Will Opus 3.5 be released this week?
NO
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Kansas City Chiefs?
NO
Will any player on the ATP Tour pass 1000 aces in the 2024 season?
NO
Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?
NO
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1133 and 1134?
YES
Is Marvel’s Agatha All Along going to be good? 🧙‍♀️🪄📺
YES
Will Tesla officially reveal the Tesla "Model 2" in 2024?
NO
Will Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ250 and adding answers to MC-Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ25 before October 1st?
NO
Will the Bank of England cut rates by more than 25bps in November?
NO
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the Denver Broncos (away)?
YES
Will Nintendo legally go after Palworld in some way before EOY 2024?
YES
Will a Trump supporter attempt to physically assault Mike Pence before the 2024 election?
NO
Does our team win trivia?
NO
Will Shohei Ohtani hit more than 5 home runs in the 2024 postseason?
NO
Destiny releases his J6-manifesto before November
NO
Will Trump do jail time in 2024?
NO
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way?
NO
Will the Cubs win 84 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season?
NO
Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?
NO
Will I train or play soccer with my brother in law at his club in 2024
NO
Was there Russian meddling in the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
YES
Will Donald Trump flip Miami-Dade county in 2024?
YES
Will Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope win the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024?
NO
Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes?
YES
Will the Braves win the 2024 World Series?
NO
Was the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?
NO
Will the 2024 US presidential election happen as scheduled on 5 November?
YES
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 500k views?
YES
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Philadelphia Eagles (home) beat the Carolina Panthers (away)?
YES
Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election?
NO
Will the price movement of DJT stock accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
YES
Will Selzer out-predict FiveThirtyEight in the 2024 Iowa presidential election?
NO
Was ACX book review "nine lives" written by Scott Alexander?
NO
Will Jason Ween's Youtube channel reach 650k subscribers in 2024?
YES
Will the NY Giants stomp the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈|🦃 (4:30pm)
NO
Lionel Messi will score a hat-trick in a match for Inter Miami by 2025
YES
Will a Democrat win Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election?
NO
Will Travis Kelce endorse Trump before the election?
NO
Will Barack Obama declare the 2024 election as the most important of our lifetimes?
NO
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen die in October 2024?
NO
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first ten Starship flights?
YES
Will Jimmy Carter outlive any current or former POTUS?
NO
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 20M views?
YES
Will I get a date on Manifold Dating?
NO
Will there be major economic news that affects the 2024 US election?
NO
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Nov 2024?
YES
[Polymarket-linked] Trump caught with Loomer again in September?
NO
Will anyone say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", "Blockchain", "World Liberty Financial" or similar during the Vance vs Walz debate?
NO
Will there be a way for two users to bet against each other without paying Manifold? [6 months]
YES
Will Donald Trump still be alive on October 1st, 2024?
YES
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Japan in 2024?
NO
Will the Dutch government successfully implement the 'noodwet' for the 'asylum crisis'?
NO
Will there be significant BLM riots preceding the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Biden facilitates ceasefire in Ukraine before Election Day
NO
Will Harris become president before the end of Biden's term AND win the 2024 election for president?
NO
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
YES
Will Pod Save America Host Jon Lovett make it to the final five in Survivor Season 47?
NO