question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Will Mikheil Kavelashvili be elected as President of Georgia | YES |
Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term? | YES |
Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024? | NO |
Will Harris win a state in the 2024 election that Biden lost in 2020? | NO |
Will Iran hit Israel within 7 days of being attacked by them? | NO |
Will Pennsylvania DA stop Elon Musk PAC from $1M daily voter giveaways before Election Day? | NO |
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025? | YES |
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Giants? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 11 than it closed on Dec 10? | YES |
Will Kamala Harris’s "Brat Summer" carry through till November? | NO |
Will Dan Osborn (Independent) be within 10 points of Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent) in the Nebraska Senate election? | YES |
Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 before $40,000? | YES |
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 United States presidential election? | NO |
Daily coinflip | NO |
Will GODZILLA X KONG have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than the next Palme d'Or winner at Cannes? | YES |
Will Anthropic release an API related to agent use on October 22, 2024? | YES |
Will I (Cynthia) get a full time job by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO? | YES |
Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election? | NO |
Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 200k views? | YES |
Will Guilherme Boulos be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | NO |
Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time? | YES |
Will the Democrats control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives after the 2024 election? | YES |
Does Manifold think AI is right-wing technology? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 14 than it closed on Nov 13? | NO |
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September? | YES |
Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in Oct 2024? | YES |
Will a third party candidate qualify for at least one U.S. presidential debate in 2024? | NO |
Will Pat Gelsinger be removed or announce he is stepping down as Intel CEO by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will me and @PeterBennett (hand-brain) defeat @NicholasCharette at chess? | NO |
Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024? | YES |
Will Bottas get more Points then Zhou in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | NO |
Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024? | NO |
Will Wizards of the Coast release any white-bordered cards before 2025? | YES |
Will California vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | YES |
Will Trump win at least ten states? | YES |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy run for president in the 2024 election as a Libertarian or Independent? | NO |
Will $SOL (Solana) reaches more than $250 USD anytime within 2024? | YES |
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election? | NO |
Will Trump say all 50 states before the election? | NO |
Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2023) win Worlds in 2024? | YES |
Will Opus 3.5 be released this week? | NO |
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Kansas City Chiefs? | NO |
Will any player on the ATP Tour pass 1000 aces in the 2024 season? | NO |
Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1133 and 1134? | YES |
Is Marvel’s Agatha All Along going to be good? 🧙♀️🪄📺 | YES |
Will Tesla officially reveal the Tesla "Model 2" in 2024? | NO |
Will Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ250 and adding answers to MC-Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ25 before October 1st? | NO |
Will the Bank of England cut rates by more than 25bps in November? | NO |
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the Denver Broncos (away)? | YES |
Will Nintendo legally go after Palworld in some way before EOY 2024? | YES |
Will a Trump supporter attempt to physically assault Mike Pence before the 2024 election? | NO |
Does our team win trivia? | NO |
Will Shohei Ohtani hit more than 5 home runs in the 2024 postseason? | NO |
Destiny releases his J6-manifesto before November | NO |
Will Trump do jail time in 2024? | NO |
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way? | NO |
Will the Cubs win 84 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season? | NO |
Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will I train or play soccer with my brother in law at his club in 2024 | NO |
Was there Russian meddling in the 2024 Romanian presidential election? | YES |
Will Donald Trump flip Miami-Dade county in 2024? | YES |
Will Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope win the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024? | NO |
Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes? | YES |
Will the Braves win the 2024 World Series? | NO |
Was the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged? | NO |
Will the 2024 US presidential election happen as scheduled on 5 November? | YES |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 500k views? | YES |
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Philadelphia Eagles (home) beat the Carolina Panthers (away)? | YES |
Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will the price movement of DJT stock accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | YES |
Will Selzer out-predict FiveThirtyEight in the 2024 Iowa presidential election? | NO |
Was ACX book review "nine lives" written by Scott Alexander? | NO |
Will Jason Ween's Youtube channel reach 650k subscribers in 2024? | YES |
Will the NY Giants stomp the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈|🦃 (4:30pm) | NO |
Lionel Messi will score a hat-trick in a match for Inter Miami by 2025 | YES |
Will a Democrat win Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election? | NO |
Will Travis Kelce endorse Trump before the election? | NO |
Will Barack Obama declare the 2024 election as the most important of our lifetimes? | NO |
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen die in October 2024? | NO |
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first ten Starship flights? | YES |
Will Jimmy Carter outlive any current or former POTUS? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 20M views? | YES |
Will I get a date on Manifold Dating? | NO |
Will there be major economic news that affects the 2024 US election? | NO |
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Nov 2024? | YES |
[Polymarket-linked] Trump caught with Loomer again in September? | NO |
Will anyone say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", "Blockchain", "World Liberty Financial" or similar during the Vance vs Walz debate? | NO |
Will there be a way for two users to bet against each other without paying Manifold? [6 months] | YES |
Will Donald Trump still be alive on October 1st, 2024? | YES |
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Japan in 2024? | NO |
Will the Dutch government successfully implement the 'noodwet' for the 'asylum crisis'? | NO |
Will there be significant BLM riots preceding the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Biden facilitates ceasefire in Ukraine before Election Day | NO |
Will Harris become president before the end of Biden's term AND win the 2024 election for president? | NO |
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024? | YES |
Will Pod Save America Host Jon Lovett make it to the final five in Survivor Season 47? | NO |
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