question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Is Wicked (2024) going to be a flop? 🧙♀️🧹🎶 | NO |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | NO |
Will a specific AI image or video model be mentioned by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024? | NO |
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | NO |
Will the Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election? | YES |
Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wyoming? | NO |
Will “Venom: The Last Dance" receive a worse CinemaScore than “Venom” & “Venom: Let There Be Carnage”? (both were B+) | YES |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy - IN RESPONSE - harshly criticize Trump before Nov. 2024 election? | NO |
Will any of Dockside Extortionist, Mana Crypt, or Jeweled Lotus be worth ~75% less than their pre-ban prices in 2 weeks? | NO |
Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024? | NO |
Will Democrats win either house of the Arizona state legislature in 2024? | NO |
Will Hans Niemann Beat Either Hikaru Nakamura or Magnus Carlsen Again in 2024? | YES |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 800k views? | NO |
Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024? | YES |
Will an Australian bishop become a cardinal this year? | YES |
Will Fortnite support MacOS again in 2024? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 8 than it closed on Oct 7? | YES |
Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang? | NO |
Will it be revealed, by the end of 2024 that Destiny has lied about something significant during the Divorce Drama? | YES |
Will Bitcoin reach $77,777 USD before the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024? | YES |
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria) | NO |
Will Trump publicly claim that J.D. Vance was set up by the deep state to undermine him? | NO |
Will @Tumbles be late to pay back the 39k loan from Ammon? | NO |
Will questions which resolve in very distant future (more than 5 years) be still allowed on Manifold in one year? | YES |
Will a Republican win the popular vote by 2037? | YES |
Will Ohio and Iowa vote within 1% of each other in 2024? | NO |
Will this market close above 50% percent? | NO |
Will ANY 2020 blue states/districts flip red in 2024? | YES |
If he is the Republican nominee, will Former Governor Larry Hogan win the 2024 Senate Race in Maryland? | NO |
Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election? | NO |
Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected? | YES |
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Palestine conflict? | NO |
Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween? | NO |
Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27? | YES |
If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency? | NO |
Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025? | YES |
Will Red Bull win 21 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | NO |
Will Destiny reach 828k subscribers in October 2024? | YES |
Will Chris Murphy win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Connecticut? | YES |
Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | YES |
If the Republican nominee wins Florida, will they win the presidency (2024)? | YES |
Will Visma | Lease a Bike win zero grand tours and 1 monument (not WVA) in 2024? | NO |
Will Trump win the 2024 Election? | YES |
Will trump have an outburst during his NYC criminal trial that gets him thrown in jail? | NO |
Will Biden take part in a Twitter Space as part of his campaign? | NO |
Will Donald Trump be knocked out of the race because of judicial issues after winning the Republican nomination? | NO |
Will Donald Trump win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election? | YES |
Will Arizona vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | NO |
Will Lord Peter Hendy have left his post as Minister of State for Rail by the end of October 2024? | NO |
Will Enel appear in egghead? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter live to see Super Bowl LIX? | NO |
Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas? | NO |
If the top chatbot in 2025 "thinks" before responding to a difficult prompt, will its thoughts be human-interpretable? | YES |
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the New Orleans Saints (home) beat the Atlanta Falcons (away)? | YES |
Tug of war | NO |
Will Assad flee Syria by 2025? | YES |
Will anyone say "AI", "Artificial intelligence" or "GPT" during the Vance vs Walz debate? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 16 than
it closed on Oct 15? | YES |
Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election? | NO |
Bing stops being tricked by the misleading query: "The 16 executive departments of the US government are:" | YES |
Will India legalise same-sex marriage before 2025? | NO |
Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 150 for at least one week in 2024? | NO |
Will Hwang Jun-Ho still be alive when "Squid Game" returns for season 2? | YES |
Will trading on the Kalshi Presidential market stop for a day relating to CFTC proceedings before the 2024 election? | NO |
11 traders on this Market? | YES |
Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will a new official weapon be added to Team Fortress 2 before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD? | NO |
Will SpaceX win the DoJ lawsuit on its hiring practices? | YES |
Will Mitt Romney endorse Trump? | NO |
Will either happen: Trump is convicted of a crime AND wins election OR Trump is not convicted AND loses election | YES |
Will the Democrats win both PA and MI in 2024 Presidential election? | NO |
NFL Week 17 (Dec 26 2024): Will the Chicago Bears (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)? | NO |
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025? | YES |
Will “Gladiator 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Wicked"? | NO |
Will any Mr Beast video posted in 2024 exceed 300M views? | YES |
During the course of the 2024 presidential election process, will any significant world flipping event occur? | YES |
Will >90% of online content be AI generated by 2025? | NO |
Will TSLA double between 2024 and the end of 2025? | YES |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | NO |
Will Mira return to Twitter before EOY 2025? | YES |
San Francisco Proposition K passes: Great Highway Recreational Space 2024-11 | YES |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020? | NO |
Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence? | NO |
Will Trump be the target of a 3rd assassination attempt before election? | NO |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will Midjourney v7 be released before Nov 2024? | NO |
Will a Sleeper Agent Attack on a major LLM (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) cause significant real-life consequences in 2024? | NO |
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of September 2024? | NO |
Will arsenii become a cracked programmer by the end of the summer? | NO |
Will Stripe go public by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Jon Tester be reëlected? | NO |
Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes? | NO |
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,499.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024? | NO |
Will destiny have a public falling out with anyone he considered a friend in 2024? | YES |
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1132 and 1133? | NO |
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