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Is Wicked (2024) going to be a flop? 🧙‍♀️🧹🎶
NO
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
NO
Will a specific AI image or video model be mentioned by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
NO
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
NO
Will the Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election?
YES
Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate?
NO
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wyoming?
NO
Will “Venom: The Last Dance" receive a worse CinemaScore than “Venom” & “Venom: Let There Be Carnage”? (both were B+)
YES
Will Vivek Ramaswamy - IN RESPONSE - harshly criticize Trump before Nov. 2024 election?
NO
Will any of Dockside Extortionist, Mana Crypt, or Jeweled Lotus be worth ~75% less than their pre-ban prices in 2 weeks?
NO
Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024?
NO
Will Democrats win either house of the Arizona state legislature in 2024?
NO
Will Hans Niemann Beat Either Hikaru Nakamura or Magnus Carlsen Again in 2024?
YES
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 800k views?
NO
Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024?
YES
Will an Australian bishop become a cardinal this year?
YES
Will Fortnite support MacOS again in 2024?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 8 than it closed on Oct 7?
YES
Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang?
NO
Will it be revealed, by the end of 2024 that Destiny has lied about something significant during the Divorce Drama?
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,777 USD before the end of 2024?
YES
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
YES
Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024?
YES
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
NO
Will Trump publicly claim that J.D. Vance was set up by the deep state to undermine him?
NO
Will @Tumbles be late to pay back the 39k loan from Ammon?
NO
Will questions which resolve in very distant future (more than 5 years) be still allowed on Manifold in one year?
YES
Will a Republican win the popular vote by 2037?
YES
Will Ohio and Iowa vote within 1% of each other in 2024?
NO
Will this market close above 50% percent?
NO
Will ANY 2020 blue states/districts flip red in 2024?
YES
If he is the Republican nominee, will Former Governor Larry Hogan win the 2024 Senate Race in Maryland?
NO
Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
NO
Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?
YES
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Palestine conflict?
NO
Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween?
NO
Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27?
YES
If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency?
NO
Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?
YES
Will Red Bull win 21 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season?
NO
Will Destiny reach 828k subscribers in October 2024?
YES
Will Chris Murphy win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Connecticut?
YES
Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
YES
If the Republican nominee wins Florida, will they win the presidency (2024)?
YES
Will Visma | Lease a Bike win zero grand tours and 1 monument (not WVA) in 2024?
NO
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
YES
Will trump have an outburst during his NYC criminal trial that gets him thrown in jail?
NO
Will Biden take part in a Twitter Space as part of his campaign?
NO
Will Donald Trump be knocked out of the race because of judicial issues after winning the Republican nomination?
NO
Will Donald Trump win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election?
YES
Will Arizona vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
NO
Will Lord Peter Hendy have left his post as Minister of State for Rail by the end of October 2024?
NO
Will Enel appear in egghead?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter live to see Super Bowl LIX?
NO
Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas?
NO
If the top chatbot in 2025 "thinks" before responding to a difficult prompt, will its thoughts be human-interpretable?
YES
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the New Orleans Saints (home) beat the Atlanta Falcons (away)?
YES
Tug of war
NO
Will Assad flee Syria by 2025?
YES
Will anyone say "AI", "Artificial intelligence" or "GPT" during the Vance vs Walz debate?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 16 than it closed on Oct 15?
YES
Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election?
NO
Bing stops being tricked by the misleading query: "The 16 executive departments of the US government are:"
YES
Will India legalise same-sex marriage before 2025?
NO
Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 150 for at least one week in 2024?
NO
Will Hwang Jun-Ho still be alive when "Squid Game" returns for season 2?
YES
Will trading on the Kalshi Presidential market stop for a day relating to CFTC proceedings before the 2024 election?
NO
11 traders on this Market?
YES
Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of 2024?
YES
Will a new official weapon be added to Team Fortress 2 before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD?
NO
Will SpaceX win the DoJ lawsuit on its hiring practices?
YES
Will Mitt Romney endorse Trump?
NO
Will either happen: Trump is convicted of a crime AND wins election OR Trump is not convicted AND loses election
YES
Will the Democrats win both PA and MI in 2024 Presidential election?
NO
NFL Week 17 (Dec 26 2024): Will the Chicago Bears (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)?
NO
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025?
YES
Will “Gladiator 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Wicked"?
NO
Will any Mr Beast video posted in 2024 exceed 300M views?
YES
During the course of the 2024 presidential election process, will any significant world flipping event occur?
YES
Will >90% of online content be AI generated by 2025?
NO
Will TSLA double between 2024 and the end of 2025?
YES
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas?
NO
Will Mira return to Twitter before EOY 2025?
YES
San Francisco Proposition K passes: Great Highway Recreational Space 2024-11
YES
Daily coinflip
YES
Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020?
NO
Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence?
NO
Will Trump be the target of a 3rd assassination attempt before election?
NO
Daily coinflip
YES
Will Midjourney v7 be released before Nov 2024?
NO
Will a Sleeper Agent Attack on a major LLM (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) cause significant real-life consequences in 2024?
NO
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of September 2024?
NO
Will arsenii become a cracked programmer by the end of the summer?
NO
Will Stripe go public by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Jon Tester be reëlected?
NO
Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes?
NO
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,499.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024?
NO
Will destiny have a public falling out with anyone he considered a friend in 2024?
YES
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1132 and 1133?
NO