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Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
YES
Will a Mana market resolve differently from its Sweep market in 2024?
YES
Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse?
YES
Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?
NO
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1129 and 1130?
NO
Will incremental compilation make it into Zig before July 2024?
NO
Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head?
NO
Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024?
YES
Will Mistral AI be acquired by September 1st 2024?
NO
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Utah?
NO
Will Trump pay any money for defaming columnist E. Jean Carroll before the US Presidential Elections 2024?
NO
Will the 2024 Republican nominee for President remain the nominee through Election Day?
YES
NFL Week 7 (Oct 21): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Baltimore Ravens?
NO
Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races?
YES
Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate?
NO
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?
YES
Will TSLA reach $475 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025?
YES
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Florida be greater than in 2020 (3.3%)?
YES
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa?
NO
NFL Week 15 (Dec 15 2024): Will the Houston Texans (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)?
YES
[short fuze] Will OpenAI release strawberry on ChatGPT today (Sep. 12)?
YES
Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years?
YES
Will Bloomberg launch a page containing Manifold data?
YES
NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the New York Jets (away)?
YES
Will Trump win Arizona AND Michigan?
YES
Will RFK get at least 10 million popular votes in the 2024 Presidential Election?
NO
Will the phaseout of Coal from the UK power grid be completed as planned in September 2024?
YES
Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2024?
NO
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 9 than it closed on Oct 8?
YES
Will Trump win Arizona AND North Carolina?
YES
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024?
NO
Will NVIDIA have more than 75% of the Data center market share by revenue in 2024?
YES
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
YES
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
YES
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any race be canceled or switched before the start of its respective race weekend?
NO
Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024
YES
Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
NO
Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections?
NO
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2027?
YES
Will Biden have pardoned more people than Trump (2017-2021)?
YES
Will Najee Harris still be we the Pittsburgh Steelers next season (2024-25)?
YES
Will Liam Lawson drive in a race for Visa Cash App RB before the 2024 Formula 1 season is over?
YES
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Ohio?
NO
Will AI wipe out humanity this week?
NO
NFL Week 9 (Oct 31 2024): Will the New York Jets (home) beat the Houston Texans (away)?
YES
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024 or 2025?
YES
Will Manifold have downtime on Election Day?
NO
Will the Detroit Tigers beat the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS?
NO
Will this market close above 80%?
NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Grand Sweep Launch next Wed?!
YES
NFL Week 3 (Sep 19): Will the New York Jets beat the New England Patriots?
YES
Will the "500 Poll" reach it's goal before end of Halloween?
NO
Will any video game released in November have a Metacritic score of 95 or higher?
NO
Will Nikki Haley be on the 2024 Republican Presidential ticket?
NO
Will Vaush publicly apologise to Destiny before the 2024 US election?
NO
Will Donald Trump replace J.D. Vance with RFK as his running mate before the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in South Carolina?
NO
Will Kanye West receive over 5% of the votes during the US 2024 election?
NO
Will a Manifold user be charged with the killing of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson?
YES
Will TerraPower's Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 begin construction in 2024?
YES
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
NO
Will Donald Trump still be alive on November 1st, 2024?
YES
Will the Kansas City Chiefs play a perfect regular season? (No losses)
NO
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Election Day (Nov 5) 2024?
YES
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025?
YES
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Charles Leclerc beat Carlos Sainz in the Drivers Championship?
YES
Republicans will run the table in 2024: Winning White House, Senate, and House
YES
Will this market get at least 100 traders?
YES
Will Ron Desantis win the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Is the @CbzManagement Twitter account genuine?
YES
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec23 than it closed on Dec 20?
YES
Will the Ohio State Buckeyes defeat the Michigan Wolverines in football on November 30, 2024
NO
Will Starship flight 5 conduct a simulated deorbit burn?
NO
🎶 Will Suno AI get bought/acquired in 2024?
NO
Will Moana 2 (2024) gross more domestically at the box office than Moana (2016)?
YES
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Borderlands 4 comes out?
NO
yes (this market will resolve no)
NO
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Alpine will have a double DNF in a race?
NO
Will Joe Biden pardon or commute the sentence of Hunter Biden?
YES
Will OpenAI be valued at more than $90 billion by the end of 2030?
YES
Will the prime rate be higher a year from now?
NO
Will Rashida Tlaib leave the Democratic Party by the end of October 2024?
NO
Will Kier Starmer still be leader of the Labour Party (UK) on 1st January 2025?
YES
Will a new type of AI model replace transformers as the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology by 2024?
NO
Someone sweeps seven swing states?
YES
Kamala positive favorability before October?
YES
Will the Rust Belt tossup states vote more Democratic than the Sun Belt swing states in 2024?
YES
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky release the official HPMOR epilogue before the end of 2024?
NO
President Biden will withdraw from Democrat nomination or nomination race for health reasons.
NO
Will Wikipedia change its name to Dickipedia, any time this year?
NO
NFL Week 11 (Nov 17 2024): Will the Los Angeles Chargers (home) beat the Cincinnati Bengals (away)?
YES
Will Americans favour Kamala Harris over Joe Biden on election day?
YES
Reported damage in San Francisco due to earthquake or tsunami by December 6, 2024
NO
Will they rig the election?
NO
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 600k views?
NO
Will Kamala Harris publicly admit that she didn't actually work at McDonalds at some point before election day?
NO
Will the 2024 Democratic nominee appear on the ballot in Ohio?
YES
Will Chris Sununu run for president (by 2024)?
NO
NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions?
NO