question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025? | YES |
Will a Mana market resolve differently from its Sweep market in 2024? | YES |
Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse? | YES |
Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024? | NO |
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1129 and 1130? | NO |
Will incremental compilation make it into Zig before July 2024? | NO |
Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head? | NO |
Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024? | YES |
Will Mistral AI be acquired by September 1st 2024? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Utah? | NO |
Will Trump pay any money for defaming columnist E. Jean Carroll before the US Presidential Elections 2024? | NO |
Will the 2024 Republican nominee for President remain the nominee through Election Day? | YES |
NFL Week 7 (Oct 21): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Baltimore Ravens? | NO |
Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races? | YES |
Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate? | NO |
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue? | YES |
Will TSLA reach $475 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025? | YES |
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Florida be greater than in 2020 (3.3%)? | YES |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa? | NO |
NFL Week 15 (Dec 15 2024): Will the Houston Texans (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)? | YES |
[short fuze] Will OpenAI release strawberry on ChatGPT today (Sep. 12)? | YES |
Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years? | YES |
Will Bloomberg launch a page containing Manifold data? | YES |
NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the New York Jets (away)? | YES |
Will Trump win Arizona AND Michigan? | YES |
Will RFK get at least 10 million popular votes in the 2024 Presidential Election? | NO |
Will the phaseout of Coal from the UK power grid be completed as planned in September 2024? | YES |
Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2024? | NO |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 9 than it closed on Oct 8? | YES |
Will Trump win Arizona AND North Carolina? | YES |
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024? | NO |
Will NVIDIA have more than 75% of the Data center market share by revenue in 2024? | YES |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | YES |
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election? | YES |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any race be canceled or switched before the start of its respective race weekend? | NO |
Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024 | YES |
Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election? | NO |
Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections? | NO |
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2027? | YES |
Will Biden have pardoned more people than Trump (2017-2021)? | YES |
Will Najee Harris still be we the Pittsburgh Steelers next season (2024-25)? | YES |
Will Liam Lawson drive in a race for Visa Cash App RB before the 2024 Formula 1 season is over? | YES |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Ohio? | NO |
Will AI wipe out humanity this week? | NO |
NFL Week 9 (Oct 31 2024): Will the New York Jets (home) beat the Houston Texans (away)? | YES |
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024 or 2025? | YES |
Will Manifold have downtime on Election Day? | NO |
Will the Detroit Tigers beat the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS? | NO |
Will this market close above 80%? | NO |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Grand Sweep Launch next Wed?! | YES |
NFL Week 3 (Sep 19): Will the New York Jets beat the New England Patriots? | YES |
Will the "500 Poll" reach it's goal before end of Halloween? | NO |
Will any video game released in November have a Metacritic score of 95 or higher? | NO |
Will Nikki Haley be on the 2024 Republican Presidential ticket? | NO |
Will Vaush publicly apologise to Destiny before the 2024 US election? | NO |
Will Donald Trump replace J.D. Vance with RFK as his running mate before the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in South Carolina? | NO |
Will Kanye West receive over 5% of the votes during the US 2024 election? | NO |
Will a Manifold user be charged with the killing of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson? | YES |
Will TerraPower's Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 begin construction in 2024? | YES |
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024? | NO |
Will Donald Trump still be alive on November 1st, 2024? | YES |
Will the Kansas City Chiefs play a perfect regular season? (No losses) | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Election Day (Nov 5) 2024? | YES |
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025? | YES |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Charles Leclerc beat Carlos Sainz in the Drivers Championship? | YES |
Republicans will run the table in 2024: Winning White House, Senate, and House | YES |
Will this market get at least 100 traders? | YES |
Will Ron Desantis win the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Is the @CbzManagement Twitter account genuine? | YES |
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec23 than it closed on Dec 20? | YES |
Will the Ohio State Buckeyes defeat the Michigan Wolverines in football on November 30, 2024 | NO |
Will Starship flight 5 conduct a simulated deorbit burn? | NO |
🎶 Will Suno AI get bought/acquired in 2024? | NO |
Will Moana 2 (2024) gross more domestically at the box office than Moana (2016)? | YES |
Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Borderlands 4 comes out? | NO |
yes (this market will resolve no) | NO |
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Alpine will have a double DNF in a race? | NO |
Will Joe Biden pardon or commute the sentence of Hunter Biden? | YES |
Will OpenAI be valued at more than $90 billion by the end of 2030? | YES |
Will the prime rate be higher a year from now? | NO |
Will Rashida Tlaib leave the Democratic Party by the end of October 2024? | NO |
Will Kier Starmer still be leader of the Labour Party (UK) on 1st January 2025? | YES |
Will a new type of AI model replace transformers as the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology by 2024? | NO |
Someone sweeps seven swing states? | YES |
Kamala positive favorability before October? | YES |
Will the Rust Belt tossup states vote more Democratic than the Sun Belt swing states in 2024? | YES |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky release the official HPMOR epilogue before the end of 2024? | NO |
President Biden will withdraw from Democrat nomination or nomination race for health reasons. | NO |
Will Wikipedia change its name to Dickipedia, any time this year? | NO |
NFL Week 11 (Nov 17 2024): Will the Los Angeles Chargers (home) beat the Cincinnati Bengals (away)? | YES |
Will Americans favour Kamala Harris over Joe Biden on election day? | YES |
Reported damage in San Francisco due to earthquake or tsunami by December 6, 2024 | NO |
Will they rig the election? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 600k views? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris publicly admit that she didn't actually work at McDonalds at some point before election day? | NO |
Will the 2024 Democratic nominee appear on the ballot in Ohio? | YES |
Will Chris Sununu run for president (by 2024)? | NO |
NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions? | NO |
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