Datasets:
CK0607
/
closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
id
stringlengths
9
20
slug
stringlengths
4
54
question
stringlengths
1
120
firstGroup
float64
createdTime
int64
1,715B
1,752B
closeTime
int64
1,717B
1,752B
resolvedTime
int64
1,736B
1,752B
resolution
stringclasses
2 values
resolutionProbability
float64
0
1
volume
float64
0
6.93M
dgLQp9lnS2
daily-coinflip-sQOChA0cZA
Daily coinflip
null
1,741,871,375,891
1,742,011,140,000
1,742,013,303,585
YES
0.52
23,146.071317
5up8EyLcPg
will-mark-carney-and-liberals-aboli
Will Mark Carney and Liberals abolish the consumer carbon tax before the next election?
null
1,741,870,551,869
1,742,178,261,855
1,742,178,261,855
YES
0.99
914.987437
nEA9zIAzAL
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-RP9I0g8u59
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 13 than it closed on Mar 12?
null
1,741,868,731,447
1,741,897,180,852
1,741,897,180,852
NO
0.011311
7,926.76551
uQQ0UELRzL
if-there-is-an-offered-ceasefire-an
If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th?
null
1,741,859,142,965
1,746,053,940,000
1,746,101,967,762
NO
0.09184
16,881.391488
dNP0QUzUg9
will-i-exercise-every-day-for-a-wee
Will I exercise every day for a week?
null
1,741,850,992,294
1,742,425,140,000
1,742,449,922,992
NO
0.256485
975.575229
9ygPgUI2On
will-canada-lose-the-tarif-war-with
Will Canada lose the Tarif war with America before April 1st?
null
1,741,842,760,598
1,743,524,761,045
1,743,524,761,045
NO
0.038065
479.296766
8OL5pIZSs8
will-chelsea-fc-win-the-uefa-europa
Will Chelsea F.C win the UEFA Europa Conference League?
null
1,741,834,934,111
1,748,572,196,340
1,748,572,196,340
YES
0.990405
13,225.87743
9yN2Z6CyUz
this-market-resolves-below-50-proba
Will this market resolve below 50% probability
null
1,741,830,935,768
1,746,152,700,000
1,749,714,295,760
NO
0.507543
81.239256
98p6qUEPQd
will-manchester-united-qualify-in-t
Will Manchester United qualify in tomorrow's match?
null
1,741,823,991,467
1,741,968,470,831
1,741,968,470,831
YES
0.99
956.071398
z2gPPtgOyU
will-real-betis-qualify-for-the-nex
Will Real Betis qualify for the next round tomorrow?
null
1,741,823,956,204
1,741,910,340,000
1,741,968,456,195
YES
0.99
894.987437
EsNRzPLcLO
will-president-zelenskyy-apologize-0y9EPQUdLI
Will President Zelenskyy publicly apologize to President Trump by the end of May 2025? (forked market)
null
1,741,821,525,353
1,748,728,740,000
1,749,052,606,978
NO
0.008061
1,432.645034
g9sP8E5OLC
will-mark-carney-identify-as-a-zion
Will Mark Carney identify as a Zionist before the 2025 election?
null
1,741,809,209,450
1,746,005,473,609
1,746,005,473,609
NO
0.01
9,442.059588
OZQRZt6zRn
barron-trump-announces-plans-to-run
Barron Trump announces plans to run for political office before June 2025
null
1,741,808,918,364
1,748,736,000,000
1,748,764,785,644
NO
0.01
2,718.358478
cRuSISPppS
barron-trump-makes-a-significant-pu
Barron Trump makes a significant public appearance or statement by June 10, 2025
null
1,741,808,847,909
1,749,513,600,000
1,749,892,310,048
NO
0.04296
486.554105
hOUd98dgQc
sam-altman-takes-temporary-leave-of
Sam Altman takes temporary leave of absence from OpenAI before June 2025
null
1,741,808,710,378
1,748,736,000,000
1,748,764,765,082
NO
0.019686
2,844.31996
NgUPZ06gq2
openais-valuation-decreases-by-10-f
OpenAI's valuation decreases by 10%+ following Ann Altman lawsuit by June 1, 2025
null
1,741,808,577,405
1,748,736,000,000
1,748,764,776,994
NO
0.022839
623.235852
SOqUSql8dE
major-openai-partner-or-investor-pu
Major OpenAI partner or investor publicly distances from Sam Altman before May 15, 2025
null
1,741,808,515,275
1,747,267,200,000
1,747,325,817,047
NO
0.056127
506.842503
hPIgUpqhz5
a-major-antifascist-boycott-campaig
A major antifascist boycott campaign reduces Tesla's global quarterly deliveries by at least 5% by September 2025
null
1,741,808,393,607
1,743,714,726,155
1,743,714,726,155
YES
0.798453
595.124895
cLQNUtU8IQ
will-russia-agree-with-the-usukrain
Will Russia agree with the current US-Ukrainian negotiated ceasefire?
null
1,741,807,812,258
1,742,338,740,000
1,742,343,231,063
NO
0.03908
8,298.30064
Ag299cC8EZ
bitcoins-price-will-outperform-the
Bitcoin's price will outperform the floor price of top 10 NFT collections by June 2025
null
1,741,798,728,873
1,749,513,600,000
1,749,891,949,503
YES
0.764151
80
s85Up8P5du
truth-socials-market-capitalization
Truth Social's market capitalization exceeds $5 billion by April 2025
null
1,741,797,453,498
1,744,329,600,000
1,744,457,708,619
NO
0.01
2,321.315085
Iud5gtA9l6
1789-capital-raises-at-least-5-bill
1789 Capital raises at least $5 billion by June 10, 2025
null
1,741,795,206,469
1,749,513,600,000
1,749,891,530,311
NO
0.733023
144
9UQUIUsEAu
fear-greed-index-says-extreme-fear
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?
null
1,741,794,460,569
1,741,976,134,848
1,741,976,134,848
YES
0.99
2,382.584193
5ShqcgpAlI
us-senate-votes-on-a-bill-related-t
U.S. Senate votes on a bill related to women's reproductive rights before June 10, 2025
null
1,741,791,746,755
1,749,513,600,000
1,749,892,167,641
YES
0.223079
280
u0uh5S6dIq
elon-musk-tweets-about-gender-polit
Elon Musk tweets about gender politics before March 25, 2025
null
1,741,791,691,464
1,742,860,800,000
1,743,322,584,305
NO
0.027378
857.171145
qhIEz2qtp5
will-this-question-have-exactly-200
Will this question have exactly 200 unique traders by March 19th?
null
1,741,787,513,512
1,742,443,140,000
1,742,476,317,863
NO
0.01
1,017.894346
hp5zAh6SS0
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5cQElOyhOc
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 12 than it closed on Mar 11?
null
1,741,785,371,329
1,741,809,622,369
1,741,809,622,369
YES
0.99
21,643.936388
t26AS2UAR2
will-russia-agree-to-the-ceasefire
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine within the next 30 days?
null
1,741,784,477,358
1,744,408,740,000
1,744,412,053,876
NO
0.008277
1,982.9817
hspshpOzcd
will-pope-francis-become-a-nonagena
Will Pope Francis become a nonagenarian?
null
1,741,783,363,851
1,745,234,926,329
1,745,234,926,329
NO
0.01
1,099.291225
E0zSgRN90l
will-pope-francis-become-a-centenar
Will Pope Francis become a centenarian?
null
1,741,783,278,919
1,745,234,943,868
1,745,234,943,868
NO
0.01
1,296.68782
56uAnzC600
ownb-etf-will-close-above-its-launc
OWNB ETF will close above its launch price by June 10, 2025
null
1,741,782,398,354
1,749,513,600,000
1,749,891,677,045
YES
0.415402
218.957928
h9OSAnuts5
will-tesla-tsla-be-above-205share-1
Will Tesla ($TSLA) be above 205$/share 1 day after Q1 2025 financial results?
null
1,741,762,889,672
1,745,865,551,799
1,745,865,551,799
YES
0.974067
14,440.124282
q0CZ8lcNsQ
will-my-scooter-still-be-there-tomo
Will my scooter still be there tomorrow morning?
null
1,741,747,723,076
1,741,757,423,650
1,741,757,431,490
NO
0.259461
189.922172
NIpzz0Ctdt
will-honeywell-international-inc-ho
Will Honeywell International, Inc. (HON) stock price close at or above $212 on March 31st?
null
1,741,745,713,746
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,535,268,116
NO
0.01
914.987437
IhORy2zph6
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-CPQcZSPqhy
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 197 and 198?
null
1,741,742,383,831
1,742,916,962,373
1,742,916,965,221
NO
0.2
188
Z06ENuAAgz
average-cost-of-gas-in-california-a
Average cost of gas in California above $5 per gallon before June 30, 2025
null
1,741,740,890,443
1,751,323,856,467
1,751,323,856,467
NO
0.042557
4,352.215923
Rp2hIq022R
order-of-the-stick-will-1321-expand
[Order of the Stick] Will #1321 expand on the IFCC's plan
null
1,741,730,635,417
1,742,867,364,468
1,742,867,364,468
YES
0.584381
21
OOl9g8h9AA
will-southwest-airlines-start-charg
Will Southwest Airlines start charging a fee for the first checked bag for flights booked on 28 May 2025?
null
1,741,726,696,985
1,748,483,320,099
1,748,483,320,099
YES
0.943247
3,076.787827
CEtIZlOPEd
someone-charged-with-domestic-terro
someone charged with domestic terrorism for tesla car / dealer vandalism in 2025?
null
1,741,721,261,804
1,744,128,119,307
1,744,128,119,307
YES
0.99
16,985.970448
nhzNu9SSz8
bases-total-value-locked-tvl-surpas
Base's Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing Arbitrum's by June 9, 2025
null
1,741,720,355,728
1,741,771,572,607
1,741,771,572,607
YES
0.736334
160
6gRdSL2Igy
will-another-presidential-candidate
Will another presidential candidate with 20%+ chance of winning be disqualified in an EU country in 2025?
null
1,741,720,130,421
1,743,424,190,947
1,743,424,190,947
YES
0.237843
109
8Ug2nuCpQL
will-cristela-georgescu-announce-he
Will Cristela Georgescu announce her candidacy for the 2025 Romanian presidential election before April 15, 2025?
null
1,741,716,684,994
1,744,754,340,000
1,745,249,728,490
NO
0.054757
1,019.400722
AENnAnELU9
a-major-democratic-presidential-can
A major Democratic presidential candidate will appear on Joe Rogan's podcast before April 10, 2025
null
1,741,716,580,103
1,744,243,200,000
1,744,281,406,122
NO
0.01
11,091.842466
8ZnppLQEOA
polymarket-will-barron-launch-a-coi
[Polymarket] Will Barron launch a coin before May?
null
1,741,710,272,400
1,745,823,540,000
1,746,107,368,121
NO
0.01001
12,031.745697
utClNUl6dq
will-bitcoin-surpass-99000-by-the-e-uh98hn22ER
Will bitcoin surpass $99,000 by the end of March 2025?
null
1,741,710,160,245
1,743,506,689,330
1,743,506,689,330
NO
0.01
1,501.655008
lgERl9P8Qd
will-i-see-a-groundhog-this-march
Will I see a groundhog this March?
null
1,741,699,443,963
1,743,479,940,000
1,743,507,910,557
NO
0.409836
40
pdhRAUgRdQ
will-rodrigo-duterte-be-extradited
Will Rodrigo Duterte be extradited to The Hague before 2030?
null
1,741,684,016,611
1,741,928,120,943
1,741,928,120,943
YES
0.946199
1,059.371659
yE8UR8zz8l
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-ONRqEC8dE2
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 11 than it closed on Mar 10?
null
1,741,683,501,984
1,741,723,217,975
1,741,723,217,975
NO
0.021358
16,627.35393
IPut80pqOR
daily-coinflip-yPuydUlpUh
Daily coinflip
null
1,741,681,695,860
1,741,838,340,000
1,741,871,343,722
YES
0.51
4,281.427607
uSdtuhzZuu
will-i-go-to-vibecamp-this-year
Will I go to VibeCamp this year
null
1,741,677,162,218
1,750,391,940,000
1,750,739,766,696
NO
0.499613
201
l8I2AgugyC
will-ukraine-agree-to-trump-rare-ea
Will Ukraine agree to Trump rare earth minerals deal before April?
null
1,741,673,902,147
1,743,566,340,000
1,744,001,445,662
NO
0.01
1,211.649241
0IhLlLugPN
kim-jong-un-meets-with-donald-trump
Kim Jong Un meets with Donald Trump at the White House before June 9, 2025
null
1,741,662,546,268
1,749,427,200,000
1,749,741,719,073
NO
0.01
1,069.36062
SOAO6IlR96
will-duterte-face-icc-arrest-today
Will Duterte face ICC arrest today?
null
1,741,660,422,784
1,741,662,975,098
1,741,662,975,098
YES
0.354296
45
pOzAQ6nl5n
will-i-make-it-to-usnco-nationals-t
Will I make it to USNCO nationals this year?
null
1,741,657,972,373
1,743,626,197,966
1,743,626,197,966
YES
0.950541
1,318.160899
At5yIcQlC6
will-atletico-madrid-qualify-for-th
Will Atletico Madrid qualify for the next round of the Champions League?
null
1,741,653,914,417
1,741,823,915,567
1,741,823,915,567
NO
0.01
969.688292
tNAuc90cPA
will-barcelona-beat-benfica-in-the
Will Barcelona beat Benfica in the 2nd leg of the Champions League (in regular time)?
null
1,741,653,881,419
1,741,735,028,907
1,741,735,028,907
YES
0.99
1,978.872945
d8298AQQCC
joe-milton-traded-before-the-2025-n
Joe Milton traded before the 2025 NFL Draft?
null
1,741,648,517,710
1,745,539,200,000
1,745,953,418,053
YES
0.99
14,781.071368
z59nA5SPN6
will-the-2025-nba-championship-feat
Will the 2025 NBA Championship feature the Cavs and the Lakers?
null
1,741,641,579,706
1,746,478,062,329
1,746,478,062,329
NO
0.01
1,318.807171
qunREPEgd8
will-emma-make-mop-2025
Will Emma make MOP 2025?
null
1,741,624,583,310
1,745,355,729,468
1,745,355,729,468
NO
0.471515
14,653.215905
8QuQP0c2Op
2025-edition-will-tsla-reach-275-be
[2025 Edition] Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
null
1,741,622,233,301
1,742,835,831,754
1,742,835,831,754
YES
0.99
25,515.783301
98AyEcnQuq
tdtc88london
tdtc88london
null
1,741,610,904,359
1,741,610,993,398
1,741,611,002,055
YES
0.5
0
8ZU2NREhUy
over-500-alawite-civilians-killed-i
Over 500 Alawite civilians killed in Syria by June 1, 2025
null
1,741,610,351,699
1,746,001,980,814
1,746,001,980,814
YES
0.95
336.889894
c6UyynNchd
will-the-stena-immaculate-or-the-so
Will the Stena Immaculate or the Solong sink before March 16, 2025?
null
1,741,608,501,836
1,742,158,804,118
1,742,158,804,118
NO
0.153399
1,490.760036
RE8dn5uI5C
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-thlqqtEcOS
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 10 than it closed on Mar 7?
null
1,741,595,860,242
1,741,638,194,433
1,741,638,194,433
NO
0.01
9,438.698082
NC2yA68S8I
more-than-2-videos-related-to-donal
More than 10 videos related to Donald trump will be posted by Forbes YouTube main channel by the 16th March?
null
1,741,595,430,701
1,742,097,829,451
1,742,097,829,451
YES
0.246154
75
RCtzcI8dzp
will-barton-rhodes-be-at-the-agi-ho
Will Barton Rhodes be at the AGI House MCP Hackathon on march 15th
null
1,741,590,554,009
1,742,069,664,844
1,742,069,664,844
YES
0.77
601.424506
8h89nE6qcO
sobrerendira-nasralla-en-la-interna
¿Sobre-rendirá Nasralla en la interna liberal en el D.C. por >10%?
null
1,741,588,313,640
1,744,178,340,000
1,744,843,228,193
NO
0.452489
10
O9z5ZORLs0
will-i-write-a-blog-post-about-yesh
Will I write a blog post about “Yeshivish for Rationalists” by Mar. 30?
null
1,741,578,719,263
1,743,404,340,000
1,743,438,688,140
NO
0.29
1,773.599408
69qERUP95z
will-i-have-0-mana
will i have 0 mana
null
1,741,575,494,565
1,741,575,517,336
1,741,575,517,336
NO
0.956867
371
qNdzUOAsQc
will-i-solve-14-codeforces-problems-89z9LpnOCt
Will I solve 14+ Codeforces problems this week?
null
1,741,556,447,967
1,742,108,340,000
1,742,120,448,780
NO
0.077772
419.100178
pLIcdcEgIt
daily-coinflip-C8plNlSzRZ
Daily coinflip
null
1,741,551,642,845
1,741,665,540,000
1,741,681,682,177
NO
0.51
3,624.215706
IhPZ0pdu9u
will-any-ai-surpass-deep-research-a
Will any AI surpass OpenAI's Deep Research agent on Humanity's Last Exam before Eid-al Fitr 2025?
null
1,741,540,131,945
1,743,504,796,817
1,743,504,796,817
NO
0.018319
962.034884
ddL0gzLgRp
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ncI2sCttcl
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 72 and 73?
null
1,741,532,952,561
1,742,194,740,000
1,742,252,047,589
YES
0.298293
86.624197
qOPAd9POlA
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8nu8pIgRuh
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1143 and 1144?
null
1,741,532,916,429
1,742,799,540,000
1,742,874,440,428
NO
0.007724
1,386.69448
thy8NnnRtL
will-i-study-for-60-minutes-per-day
Will I study for 60 minutes per day until the end of March?
null
1,741,523,776,567
1,743,458,340,000
1,743,458,584,721
YES
0.98797
1,205.728174
zPcsg5EOEU
will-daniel-jones-join-the-colts
Will Daniel Jones join the Colts?
null
1,741,496,620,813
1,743,871,936,423
1,743,871,936,423
YES
0.99066
13,398.287576
g5OpU9zSts
will-lebron-play-on-monday-vs-the-n
Will Lebron play on Monday vs the Nets?
null
1,741,496,522,630
1,741,792,007,830
1,741,792,007,830
NO
0.01
17,968.850708
Rssl5Ip2CP
will-donald-trump-tweet-2-times-bef
Will Donald trump tweet > 2 times before the end of today?
null
1,741,491,373,423
1,741,595,283,518
1,741,595,283,518
NO
0.032
480
Ld2yQ5UlN9
will-a-purely-algebraic-inequality
Will a purely algebraic inequality show up on JMO or AMO this year?
null
1,741,476,445,925
1,742,360,340,000
1,742,520,876,734
YES
0.155979
406.617971
6Oy8qZ6ZZh
the-us-administration-will-attempt
Will the US administration attempt to shut down Starlink in Ukraine before June 1st, 2025
null
1,741,472,744,540
1,748,736,000,000
1,748,798,426,147
NO
0.011622
2,094.411925
QzNSICppcI
will-spiderduckpig-stay-in-the-mast
Will @spiderduckpig stay in the Master's league at the end of this season?
null
1,741,469,946,334
1,743,568,480,578
1,743,568,480,578
YES
0.99
1,006.376947
0S0LzzZl6O
free-mana-coin-flip
FREE MANA + coin flip
null
1,741,466,795,547
1,741,492,740,000
1,741,492,960,741
YES
0.504865
120
NqCPnzRq2C
will-iran-hit-israel-within-3-years
Will Iran hit Israel within 3 years of being attacked by them?
null
1,741,463,758,619
1,749,949,738,458
1,749,949,738,458
YES
0.969833
570
zthdCu2qZd
will-openai-release-o3-before-gpt5
Will OpenAI release o3 >1 week before GPT-5?
null
1,741,458,608,459
1,748,450,106,304
1,748,450,106,304
YES
0.990395
23,433.599357
gINLL2SEtd
free-25-to-50-mana-read-description
Free 25 to 50 mana - read description
null
1,741,454,128,677
1,741,471,782,068
1,741,471,782,068
YES
0.99
894.987437
gUZAOlAOlg
will-manchester-city-finish-in-the
Will Manchester City finish in the top five of the Premier League table?
null
1,741,452,104,250
1,748,222,363,166
1,748,222,363,166
YES
0.99
1,015.465639
qZRLLPOhnl
is-manus-another-deepseek-moment
Is Manus another "DeepSeek moment"?
null
1,741,438,414,907
1,746,676,740,000
1,746,699,913,382
NO
0.016619
47,050.271151
uNPpNUs690
will-poland-begin-withdrawal-from-t-PE5ONNgnAQ
Will Poland begin withdrawal from the Convention on Cluster Munitions by the end of 2025?
null
1,741,437,973,433
1,742,315,407,328
1,742,315,407,328
NO
0.00028
3,238.32683
ZL60Nunqtq
will-trump-implement-a-250-reciproc
Will Trump implement a 250% reciprocal tariff on Canadian lumber or dairy products?
null
1,741,434,178,996
1,751,407,140,000
1,751,407,406,056
NO
0.01
1,338.313847
LSR52dcRdn
will-i-be-convinced-that-my-blog-po
Will I be convinced that my blog post is fundamentally wrong in a week from now?
null
1,741,425,660,993
1,742,068,740,000
1,742,308,275,754
NO
0.128866
160
9LUOtIpQ5t
will-trump-golf-for-at-least-25-of
Will Trump golf for at least 25% of his first 100 days?
null
1,741,389,041,631
1,746,082,740,000
1,748,528,310,931
YES
0.349363
180,198.858387
Qzhu6ERzIO
will-a-court-pause-the-federal-gove
Will a court pause the federal government's $400 million cut in grants to Columbia University in the next thirty days?
null
1,741,372,428,916
1,743,998,340,000
1,743,998,444,319
NO
0.066895
436.629703
lgAP2puS56
lionel-messi-makes-an-appearance-ag
Lionel Messi makes an appearance against Cavalier FC in Jamaica
null
1,741,369,121,521
1,741,962,074,807
1,741,962,074,807
YES
0.99
970.821613
LnutsUhplC
will-trump-and-zelensky-meet-at-the
Will Trump and Zelensky meet at the Saudi Arabian peace talks on March 10?
null
1,741,368,404,535
1,741,880,733,101
1,741,880,733,101
NO
0.028291
7,079.802041
qOpCACZyn2
will-i-have-a-net-worth-greater-tha
Will I have a net worth greater than/equal to 200,000 mana on March 10th?
null
1,741,365,856,189
1,741,608,976,117
1,741,608,976,117
NO
0.1
2,141.444739
QuSO8O5CPL
israeli-knesset-approves-the-2025-b
Israeli Knesset approves the 2025 budget before April 1, 2025
null
1,741,364,590,863
1,743,465,600,000
1,743,483,418,135
YES
0.99
1,028.182352
NUp5zESy2I
will-pope-francis-be-alive-through-UP0hU0N8s9
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2100?
null
1,741,357,975,153
1,745,234,957,477
1,745,234,957,477
NO
0.012011
897.987437
cc2Cd09uAc
daily-coinflip-h2zn8cd50h
Daily coinflip
null
1,741,353,635,195
1,741,496,340,000
1,741,551,621,777
NO
0.502494
3,559.46456
IUCLQCZS96
will-pepfar-funding-be-unfrozen-by
Will PEPFAR funding be unfrozen by the end of March 2025?
null
1,741,337,104,641
1,743,516,000,000
1,743,531,723,597
NO
0.023701
5,819.276201
SyhsO6yZgg
will-the-popular-vote-winner-in-202
Will the popular vote winner in 2025's Canadian federal election win the most seats?
null
1,741,331,600,593
1,745,893,287,792
1,746,033,649,861
YES
0.797759
1,795.334432