id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0NdUnhR8A8 | will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-febru | Will I double my net worth by February 2025? | null | 1,734,099,887,511 | 1,737,387,901,609 | 1,737,387,901,609 | YES | 0.992068 | 2,193.916544 |
sRSgZ5L0dp | will-starbase-be-its-own-city-by-th | Will Starbase become its own official city by the end of 2025? | null | 1,734,070,608,345 | 1,749,534,685,182 | 1,749,534,685,182 | YES | 0.986343 | 10,324.810666 |
pP0u5Cpp2n | will-trump-end-birthright-citizensh | Will Trump order an end to birthright citizenship within 72h of being president? | null | 1,734,067,319,484 | 1,737,515,567,197 | 1,737,515,567,197 | YES | 0.998298 | 6,601.04603 |
d8y52ptAQy | syrian-election-by-april-2025 | Syrian election by April 2025? | null | 1,734,062,996,401 | 1,743,385,823,017 | 1,743,541,151,691 | NO | 0.017357 | 13,722.647321 |
shg9uQsdQu | will-sof-create-a-prediction-market | Will Sof create a prediction market-related site before July 2025 | null | 1,734,053,740,751 | 1,751,424,965,618 | 1,751,424,965,618 | NO | 0.014308 | 730 |
pzCuCCP56I | ask-yourself-debates-parker-before | Ask Yourself debates Parker before July 2025? | null | 1,734,052,957,847 | 1,751,428,740,000 | 1,751,439,456,972 | NO | 0.01 | 8,963.680685 |
L98Lp6t0Z6 | will-sam-fender-play-glastonbury-20 | Will Sam Fender play Glastonbury 2025? | null | 1,734,051,879,420 | 1,751,237,940,000 | 1,751,383,526,756 | NO | 0.10373 | 2,238.548687 |
8OyyIqCC5z | will-q-anon-shaman-jacob-chansley-b | Will Q Anon Shaman Jacob Chansley be pardoned by the end of 2025? | null | 1,734,041,388,651 | 1,743,524,683,459 | 1,743,524,683,459 | YES | 0.99 | 1,036.668596 |
DpTexwqYta | will-conflict-theory-of-bounded-dis | Will "Conflict Theory of Bounded Distrust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,734,038,166,444 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,720,388 | NO | 0.243331 | 10 |
S00cLNgtcA | at-least-one-trump-cabinet-member-c | At least one Trump Cabinet Member confirmed by Senate on January 20, 2025 | null | 1,734,037,359,801 | 1,737,417,600,000 | 1,737,425,193,681 | YES | 0.969179 | 8,858.949317 |
02czcNnnQu | will-nancy-pelosi-quash-aocs-bid-to | Will Nancy Pelosi quash AOC's bid to be the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee? | null | 1,734,033,165,054 | 1,739,205,005,706 | 1,739,205,005,706 | YES | 0.982954 | 761.341561 |
pckLdSgYWJ | will-gpt4-make-the-top-fifty-posts | Will "GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,734,029,597,745 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,727,959 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 |
UZS6qq5AsE | will-the-usr-party-be-part-of-the-n | Will the USR party be part of the next Romanian government? | null | 1,734,020,183,528 | 1,736,015,624,577 | 1,736,015,624,577 | NO | 0.371747 | 30 |
U2gQ0ugdOQ | will-pep-guardiola-be-fired-by-manc | Will Pep Guardiola be fired by ManCity by the end of 2024? | null | 1,734,017,235,178 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,736,779,589 | NO | 0.033758 | 1,167.99378 |
LPL8UOqEcd | next-flesh-and-blood-expansion-set | Next Flesh and Blood expansion set price reaches above $120 per booster box on release day | null | 1,734,017,205,313 | 1,743,523,590,324 | 1,743,523,590,324 | YES | 0.475624 | 50 |
ONNI9qZgPu | will-lula-still-be-president-of-bra | Will Lula still be President of Brazil on March 1st 2025? 🇧🇷🗳️ | null | 1,733,990,002,826 | 1,740,977,940,000 | 1,741,127,249,369 | YES | 0.989886 | 245,024.965806 |
2l0LNN5yUc | will-adin-ross-be-unbanned-from-twi | Will Adin Ross be unbanned from Twitch by the end of 2025? | null | 1,733,984,684,721 | 1,743,489,223,877 | 1,743,489,223,877 | YES | 0.99 | 956.146422 |
9IZRdRN6zP | will-i-believe-tpot-is-publicly-per | Will I believe TPOT is publicly perceived as an extremist group by March 1st, 2025 | null | 1,733,973,418,191 | 1,740,873,600,000 | 1,740,878,612,170 | NO | 0.074291 | 2,534 |
sR5qSZQ6pI | blueskys-daily-active-us-users-exce | Bluesky's daily active users exceed 25% of X's daily active users by June 2025 | null | 1,733,971,728,165 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,788,770,781 | NO | 0.06169 | 290 |
qyuIS9RZ9O | will-xi-jinping-attend-trumps-inaug | Will Xi Jinping attend Trump’s inauguration? | null | 1,733,959,031,094 | 1,737,333,018,457 | 1,737,333,018,457 | NO | 0.01 | 16,835.838809 |
Wiz4eKi5fs | will-change-my-mind-veganism-entail | Will "Change my mind: Veganism entails trade-offs, ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,956,810,524 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,734,374 | YES | 0.148778 | 1 |
O59sOhdy8P | will-biden-issue-broad-pardon-to-un | Will Biden issue broad pardon to undocumented immigrants before leaving office? | null | 1,733,955,499,572 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,373,815,067 | NO | 0.014041 | 5,084.446584 |
lssC92lnq9 | will-either-pepe-or-yee-get-52-of-t-qEuA0UOUqC | Will either PEPE or YEE get 52%+ of the vote? (Destiny Awards 2024) | null | 1,733,953,698,175 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,793,363,898 | YES | 0.938907 | 722.002239 |
UpNRSZPgLp | will-vucic-flee-like-assad | Will Vučić flee like Assad? | null | 1,733,951,696,377 | 1,751,362,110,587 | 1,751,362,110,587 | NO | 0.01 | 1,120.676403 |
qhzUNAQp56 | will-russia-have-a-higher-inflation | Will Russia have a higher inflation rate than Argentina in December 2024? | null | 1,733,950,800,101 | 1,736,960,888,938 | 1,736,960,888,938 | NO | 0.009065 | 965.673163 |
yptgUcOPZh | will-manifold-go-after-me-for-my-ne | Will Manifold go after me for my negative Sweepcash balance before June? | null | 1,733,939,315,822 | 1,742,604,310,037 | 1,742,604,310,037 | NO | 0.01 | 10,381.089583 |
ldOAtSzU56 | will-jimmy-butler-be-traded-to-the | Will Jimmy Butler be traded to the warriors? | null | 1,733,937,296,918 | 1,738,806,197,648 | 1,738,806,197,648 | YES | 0.99 | 3,798.475709 |
2PAgz5In6O | will-biden-pardon-liz-cheney | Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? | null | 1,733,934,733,469 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,737,388,238,015 | YES | 0.197742 | 14,472.299544 |
9qSOtdAQty | will-mohammed-albashir-remain-prime | Will Mohammed al-Bashir remain Prime Minister of Syria until March 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,929,785,685 | 1,740,895,140,000 | 1,740,908,905,602 | YES | 0.989476 | 15,587.104521 |
kygEPBDrGG | will-conjecture-internal-survey-agi | Will "Conjecture internal survey: AGI timelines and..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,924,471,552 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,746,342 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
5C0ppIE8qC | will-israel-take-damascus | Will Israel take Damascus? | null | 1,733,919,664,665 | 1,738,367,940,000 | 1,744,995,116,317 | NO | 0.01 | 982.424988 |
yREZ2lRzdt | will-tesla-officially-release-a-car-60cqu0I6lR | Will Tesla officially release a car that costs $30,999 USD or less by the end of February 2025? | null | 1,733,902,145,103 | 1,740,718,740,000 | 1,741,316,627,117 | NO | 0.01 | 1,107.719947 |
O6uIZyAQud | will-tesla-officially-release-a-car | Will Tesla officially release a car that costs $30,999 USD or less by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,733,902,126,614 | 1,751,327,492,657 | 1,751,327,492,657 | NO | 0.01 | 1,613.554156 |
ROl008cRA0 | in-the-next-30-days-will-the-next-n-RgQEp22h5O | In the next 30 days will the next Nintendo console be unveiled? | null | 1,733,893,343,028 | 1,736,571,540,000 | 1,736,619,623,099 | NO | 0.01 | 2,161.359538 |
yqcRPNCz9L | in-the-next-30-days-will-hollow-kni-ClILnSAAsZ | In the next 30 days will Hollow Knight Silksong's release date be known? | null | 1,733,893,325,488 | 1,736,571,540,000 | 1,736,619,636,130 | NO | 0.010014 | 1,039.725418 |
OR96lAR2Ip | bte-cracks-down-on-opposition-figur | BTE cracks down on opposition figures? | null | 1,733,881,915,047 | 1,736,657,940,000 | 1,736,731,622,970 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
tNSNIl8tEd | will-trump-impose-any-tariffs-at-or | Will Trump impose any tariffs at or above 25% on imports from Mexico before the end of 2025? | null | 1,733,876,236,737 | 1,738,458,053,679 | 1,738,458,053,679 | YES | 0.827086 | 448.866047 |
92IA85dZ08 | will-a-nation-create-a-bitcoin-nati | Will any country create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025? | null | 1,733,871,053,643 | 1,741,318,703,192 | 1,741,318,703,192 | YES | 0.96 | 1,078.763711 |
LsOCppQn8U | this-market-resolves-to-min5x-100-w | This market resolves to min(5x, 100)%, where x is the number of traders | null | 1,733,870,882,393 | 1,735,878,461,888 | 1,735,878,461,888 | YES | 0.973022 | 1,276.349324 |
5NEhIPRpE0 | will-httpsthreatmapcheckpointcom-sh | Will https://threatmap.checkpoint.com/ show more than 30M cyberattacks per day ON AVERAGE for the month of April2025? | null | 1,733,866,330,033 | 1,746,082,740,000 | 1,746,345,076,308 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 |
qz55hshqsO | will-tesla-tsla-reach-500-by-end-of | Will Tesla TSLA reach $500 by end of June 2025? | null | 1,733,847,168,938 | 1,750,910,340,000 | 1,751,329,305,431 | NO | 0.01 | 73,567.770088 |
updNn6tUNp | will-chatgpt-or-another-ai-model-re | Will ChatGPT or another AI model release a groundbreaking new feature (e.g., real-time video generation) by December 25? | null | 1,733,845,422,228 | 1,735,163,940,000 | 1,736,928,581,110 | YES | 0.667007 | 74 |
tnIucQ2ECh | will-the-ai-replication-paper-be-re | Will the ai replication paper be replicated? | null | 1,733,844,540,769 | 1,740,869,940,000 | 1,742,918,657,180 | NO | 0.475624 | 50 |
BpTDJj6Trq | will-a-golden-age-of-building-excer | Will "A Golden Age of Building? Excerpts and lesson..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,842,707,945 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,755,234 | NO | 0.111574 | 25 |
Rdh9hIzAyp | will-the-ncaa-mens-basketball-champ-EsNdZl9ZCR | Will the NCAA men’s basketball champion in 2025 continue the trend of being one of top 12 teams in the Week 6 AP poll? | null | 1,733,836,621,430 | 1,744,084,740,000 | 1,744,115,843,641 | YES | 0.99 | 1,880.992858 |
ANAqtcQdlE | will-donald-trump-be-attacked-again | Will Donald Trump be attacked again? | null | 1,733,816,297,614 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,479,695,904 | NO | 0.010915 | 15,570.363337 |
PiPH4gkcMu | will-exercise-solve-thinking-physic | Will "Exercise: Solve "Thinking Physics"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,810,385,663 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,762,696 | NO | 0.16 | 8.014332 |
gRPzgS9cpN | has-el-salvador-truly-found-3t-in-g | Has El Salvador truly found $3T in gold? | null | 1,733,803,335,582 | 1,739,087,940,000 | 1,739,121,400,386 | NO | 0.01 | 1,046.603303 |
QyOtAuuscq | will-pavel-durov-leave-france-befor | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2026? | null | 1,733,802,476,285 | 1,742,063,981,509 | 1,742,063,981,509 | YES | 0.99 | 961.527667 |
Et0N8NE5Pq | will-hungrybox-ever-win-another-maj | Will Hungrybox ever win another Major? (Melee) | null | 1,733,799,967,137 | 1,739,755,784,190 | 1,739,755,784,190 | YES | 0.99 | 894.987437 |
q8sASELL26 | biden-pardons-fauci--cash | Biden pardons Fauci? | null | 1,733,797,119,138 | 1,737,404,532,420 | 1,737,404,532,420 | YES | 0.997777 | 1,158.158197 |
685AhZcqII | will-alexander-ovechkin-score-a-goa | Will Alexander Ovechkin score a goal in his first game back? | null | 1,733,796,670,420 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,749,500,170,884 | YES | 0.380287 | 330 |
I6U9d5gOq6 | will-mbappe-score-a-hat-trick-for-r | Will Mbappe score a hat trick for Real Madrid in La Liga before the end of the season? | null | 1,733,794,606,263 | 1,737,910,265,689 | 1,737,910,265,689 | YES | 0.989951 | 969 |
pzLR6LuP8R | will-strutheo-have-70k-traders-by-t | Will @strutheo have 70K traders by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,792,711,206 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,764,426,051 | YES | 0.993286 | 8,622.722533 |
lhgCu9P0RU | will-israel-fullscale-invade-syria | Will Israel full-scale invade Syria? | null | 1,733,792,291,009 | 1,736,391,540,000 | 1,736,740,269,968 | NO | 0.037501 | 1,769 |
I6t6dhPCys | bitcoin-hits-100k-1-month-into-trum | Bitcoin hits $100k, 1 month into Trump's Second Term | null | 1,733,789,161,206 | 1,738,081,087,926 | 1,738,081,087,926 | YES | 0.99 | 1,583.535992 |
Q0P2ltAzU0 | will-luigi-mangiones-manifest-be-re | Will Luigi mangione's manifest be released by the authorities or legal team by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,785,671,089 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,861,004,561 | NO | 0.080279 | 1,275.283149 |
Fijbeqdovk | will-grey-goo-is-unlikely-make-the | Will "grey goo is unlikely" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,779,248,660 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,769,721 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 |
tpql9hy5QI | will-cloudmont-ski-and-golf-open-fo | Will Cloudmont ski and golf open for skiing this year? | null | 1,733,778,326,157 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,749,512,904,843 | YES | 0.569429 | 15 |
ghOy8psIZC | will-gilman-school-the-uhc-ceo-shoo | Will Gilman School, the UHC CEO shooter's high school, be implicated in radicalizing him? | null | 1,733,775,929,890 | 1,736,398,740,000 | 1,736,441,351,757 | NO | 0.164657 | 135 |
Al8nPIZI0y | will-i-feel-any-romantic-attraction | Will I feel any romantic attraction towards any individual by January 31st | null | 1,733,775,425,301 | 1,738,393,140,000 | 1,738,487,563,761 | NO | 0.117074 | 177.379502 |
N2OLyZRIg0 | trump-administration-proposes-endin | Trump administration implements ending birthright citizenship by February 1, 2025, in a policy or signed bill. | null | 1,733,774,728,275 | 1,737,479,213,548 | 1,737,479,213,548 | YES | 0.982404 | 9,718.6846 |
ulgO6ucdPA | mexican-government-increases-withho | Mexican government increases withholding rates on bank interest income before March 9, 2025 | null | 1,733,774,194,613 | 1,741,478,400,000 | 1,741,613,881,816 | NO | 0.185512 | 125 |
qO6zzphEl2 | ubisoft-announces-privatization-dea | Ubisoft announces privatization deal before March 1st, 2025 | null | 1,733,774,134,659 | 1,740,787,200,000 | 1,740,787,942,505 | NO | 0.023488 | 5,472.164257 |
NNLuUqq26u | will-the-uk-government-remove-hts-f | Will the UK government remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations by June 1st 2025? | null | 1,733,761,918,804 | 1,748,818,800,000 | 1,749,299,058,769 | NO | 0.011013 | 9,726.477395 |
lc2pLZsu5L | better-career-pledge-50-pledgers-by | Better Career Pledge >50 Pledgers by End of June 2025 | null | 1,733,759,397,529 | 1,751,320,740,000 | 1,751,560,513,999 | NO | 0.010262 | 9,871.832814 |
9q0ZOU0lqh | will-ichiro-suzuki-be-elected-unani | Will Ichiro Suzuki be elected unanimously to the Baseball Hall of Fame? | null | 1,733,752,755,322 | 1,737,502,935,937 | 1,737,502,935,937 | NO | 0.012453 | 1,460.015361 |
NN2PO6c9Sh | israeli-forces-control-the-syrian-s | Israeli forces control the Syrian side of Mount Hermon by January 15, 2025 | null | 1,733,751,616,472 | 1,736,899,200,000 | 1,736,922,943,248 | YES | 0.964189 | 671.349926 |
yS6NqpLCPu | any-of-eu-uk-or-us-remove-hts-from | Any of EU, UK, or US remove HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) from terrorist list by December 31, 2024 | null | 1,733,750,288,282 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,735,728,001,128 | NO | 0.128194 | 322 |
quAUtCqIUs | healthcare-executive-assassinated-b | (Another) Healthcare executive assassinated before June 1st 2025 | null | 1,733,727,679,097 | 1,748,764,860,000 | 1,748,767,442,010 | NO | 0.012189 | 10,743.580215 |
OIsI5sPEhy | 30-traders-on-this-market | 30 traders on this Market? | null | 1,733,723,568,868 | 1,735,624,740,000 | 1,736,107,090,179 | NO | 0.113158 | 724.649575 |
LLLL6p0tLI | will-mohamed-salah-have-the-most-pr | Will Mohamed Salah have the most Premier League goal contributions in 2024/25? | null | 1,733,707,313,456 | 1,748,192,634,956 | 1,748,192,634,956 | YES | 0.99 | 13,836.722619 |
qNO09OEqIh | true-identity-of-elena-ferrante-pub | True identity of Elena Ferrante publicly confirmed as a man before June 6, 2025 | null | 1,733,705,867,233 | 1,749,168,000,000 | 1,749,179,183,832 | NO | 0.008463 | 997.569679 |
dnPSESIIPI | will-i-like-god-emperor-of-dune-mor | Will I like God Emperor of Dune more than Children of Dune? | null | 1,733,699,149,446 | 1,742,333,421,120 | 1,742,333,421,120 | YES | 0.764151 | 80 |
PE22QJSww8 | will-agi-in-sight-our-look-at-the-g | Will "AGI in sight: our look at the game board" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,697,649,758 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,777,165 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
IZcIOLlRtR | were-there-accomplices-involved-in | Were there accomplices involved in the assassination of the United Healthcare CEO? | null | 1,733,695,635,955 | 1,740,895,140,000 | 1,750,835,820,908 | NO | 0.044203 | 6,921.270495 |
Neh76ueECv | will-large-language-models-learn-to | Will "Large language models learn to represent the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,690,217,236 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,356,623 | NO | 0.133308 | 5 |
NugULLdd5N | will-the-good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-ma | Will the Good tweet or Bad tweet market reopen this year? | null | 1,733,683,242,026 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,764,450,274 | NO | 0.079618 | 279.999988 |
8uRutNzdhz | will-apple-change-the-syrian-flag-e | Will Apple change the Syrian flag emoji before the end of 2025? 🇸🇾 | null | 1,733,678,720,713 | 1,746,216,792,094 | 1,746,216,792,094 | YES | 0.977893 | 1,592.580488 |
zidQmfFhMg | will-enemies-vs-malefactors-make-th | Will "Enemies vs Malefactors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,670,767,581 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,385,105 | YES | 0.17 | 3.267526 |
N0dEREEguR | will-200-people-reportedly-die-befo | Will 200 people reportedly die from the unknown flu-like disease spreading in the Congo before February 2025? | null | 1,733,648,249,247 | 1,738,479,444,223 | 1,738,637,393,761 | NO | 0.485014 | 2,383.302309 |
usq6udPsOS | will-brandon-sanderson-mention-anyo | Will Brandon Sanderson mention anyone's interest in Jasnah Kholin's feet within 1 month of Dragonsteel Nexus 2024? | null | 1,733,645,792,350 | 1,736,405,940,000 | 1,736,408,040,115 | NO | 0.075472 | 250 |
05gduupcEh | will-the-welchmanchin-amendment-for | Will the Welch-Manchin amendment for Supreme Court term limits pass either house of Congress in any form by Feb 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,644,211,823 | 1,738,483,140,000 | 1,738,483,261,839 | NO | 0.010001 | 919 |
tyy2hs8P8P | assad-dead-in-2024 | Assad dead in 2024? | null | 1,733,630,550,318 | 1,735,750,926,165 | 1,735,750,926,165 | NO | 0.014044 | 69,050.672114 |
sj84MyKXZK | will-financial-times-we-must-slow-d | Will "Financial Times: We must slow down the race t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,613,280,392 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,397,138 | NO | 0.099165 | 40 |
0zAgCn85yu | will-bitcoin-hit-250k-in-2024 | Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | null | 1,733,610,403,838 | 1,736,318,636,274 | 1,736,318,636,274 | NO | 0.006259 | 3,679.291861 |
sp8pyEALP0 | will-bitcoin-hit-150k-before-july | Will Bitcoin hit 150k before July? | null | 1,733,609,402,879 | 1,751,465,310,118 | 1,751,465,310,118 | NO | 0.01 | 2,223.609534 |
sTDfraZab4 | will-views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on | Will "Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,607,775,727 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,405,756 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
gApcZ55gnu | is-the-model-gemini-experimental-12 | Is the model Gemini Experimental 1206 an early version of what will be Gemini 2 Pro? | null | 1,733,605,423,069 | 1,738,774,183,691 | 1,738,834,416,161 | YES | 0.824417 | 4,464.31567 |
lLySp5EgPU | will-the-fda-ban-red-3-for-use-in-f | Will the FDA ban Red 3 for use in food before Trump takes office? | null | 1,733,600,862,103 | 1,736,974,558,338 | 1,736,974,558,338 | YES | 0.479902 | 96 |
P2dl6RClc2 | will-mirror-bot-atmirrorbot-post-cr | Will Mirror Bot ([at]mirrorbot) create another question before January 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,593,097,332 | 1,735,729,953,793 | 1,735,729,953,793 | NO | 0.024961 | 5,250 |
rwkkcgSpnA | will-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi | Will "Alexander and Yudkowsky on AGI goals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,584,081,308 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,416,097 | NO | 0.157913 | 2 |
z02P5cuA8n | class-action-lawsuit-filed-against | Class action lawsuit filed against Hawk Tuah team receives court certification by June 2025 | null | 1,733,575,574,880 | 1,748,649,600,000 | 1,748,650,731,803 | NO | 0.01 | 1,939.089994 |
T5RzkFcNpR | will-link-a-community-alert-about-z | Will "[Link] A community alert about Ziz" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,566,696,980 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,425,534 | NO | 0.03 | 317.158267 |
l2Lgt68qQE | will-the-market-about-google-mostly | Will the market about "Google mostly catching up to OpenAI in LLM quality by the end of 2024" resolve N/A? | null | 1,733,564,540,447 | 1,735,703,940,000 | 1,735,732,424,759 | NO | 0.148745 | 1,782.466699 |
QpEIh0gsPS | did-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-th-9LZ5PhO6Sp | Did the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, self identify as LGBTQ+? | null | 1,733,549,639,250 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,861,015,220 | NO | 0.068109 | 408.487741 |
E8PNsON9Q5 | will-i-win-masters-this-season | Will I win Masters this season? | null | 1,733,546,870,705 | 1,735,801,508,884 | 1,735,801,508,884 | YES | 0.958017 | 22,438.203819 |
gnRRILSpCl | haotians-submission-is-one-of-the-4 | Haotian's submission is one of the 4 winning submissions in the Google Gemini Long Context Kaggle Competition | null | 1,733,541,132,384 | 1,736,121,600,000 | 1,736,146,785,495 | NO | 0.407826 | 205 |
RssOqO9IlQ | was-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-th-ZRPPgApScA | Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, an employee at one point? | null | 1,733,539,670,529 | 1,738,810,871,735 | 1,738,810,871,735 | NO | 0.01 | 1,047.655855 |
RqdUc9E2UC | users-codeforces-rating-reaches-can | User's Codeforces rating reaches Candidate Master (1900+) by February 2025 | null | 1,733,526,128,521 | 1,740,700,800,000 | 1,740,720,324,291 | NO | 0.01 | 1,686.041971 |
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