id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86n50ngzUI | i-get-a-girlfriend-by-june-1st-2025 | I get a girlfriend by June 1st 2025 | null | 1,733,515,099,436 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,742,166,814 | NO | 0.016829 | 1,291.393403 |
Cd4TLmGDZo | will-the-fountain-of-health-a-first | Will "The Fountain of Health: a First Principles Gu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,510,676,490 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,432,995 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
I2PnPLzUsA | will-trump-pardon-enrique-tarrio | Will Trump pardon Enrique Tarrio? | null | 1,733,497,049,386 | 1,739,400,986,384 | 1,739,400,986,384 | YES | 0.978598 | 4,655.399351 |
I6UtytQ5IP | my-current-relationship-lasts-6-mon | My current relationship lasts >6 months (Oct 7th - April 7th) | null | 1,733,488,194,871 | 1,744,066,740,000 | 1,744,068,081,993 | YES | 0.99 | 20,017.957332 |
hQgUqzzqnt | will-there-be-a-g3-or-higher-solar | Will there be a G3 or higher solar storm in the first half of 2025? | null | 1,733,487,250,020 | 1,747,735,124,860 | 1,747,735,124,860 | YES | 0.935233 | 280 |
hNPslchqRP | will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-t-qsOcR68S6y | Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, have a record of being arrested in the past? | null | 1,733,473,093,072 | 1,738,810,879,278 | 1,738,810,879,278 | NO | 0.01 | 2,039.959252 |
Ld25gIdCpL | will-max-verstappen-retire-before-t | Will Max Verstappen retire before the 2025 Formula 1 Season begins? | null | 1,733,471,267,360 | 1,741,976,940,000 | 1,742,683,858,856 | NO | 0.01 | 13,128.965597 |
S9ht8QqCQu | will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-u | Will the killer of Brian Thompson, UnitedHealthcare CEO, kill at least one more person before the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,461,129,939 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,127,638 | NO | 0.014471 | 959.573577 |
NAPRNcAsId | did-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-th-Zs55dnsCSQ | Did the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, have a terminal illness at the time of the shooting? | null | 1,733,460,723,108 | 1,751,671,807,634 | 1,751,671,807,634 | NO | 0.01 | 952.427101 |
4NFDwQRhHB | will-the-filan-cabinet-podcast-with | Will "The Filan Cabinet Podcast with Oliver Habryka..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,457,726,258 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,439,309 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 |
7qSHKYRnqy | will-remarks-118-on-gpt-compressed | Will "Remarks 1–18 on GPT (compressed)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,455,762,718 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,449,264 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 |
gRIdh5E8SS | will-yoon-suk-yeol-declare-martial | Will Yoon Suk Yeol declare martial law again? (2024) | null | 1,733,453,591,515 | 1,734,076,740,000 | 1,735,729,677,257 | NO | 0.055231 | 4,638.094432 |
RElzZz0n9u | will-any-company-have-a-higher-mark | Will any company have a higher market cap than Nvidia and Apple before 2026? | null | 1,733,448,588,332 | 1,744,337,186,525 | 1,744,337,186,525 | YES | 0.99 | 928.782673 |
6u25suPpq0 | will-nvidia-have-a-higher-market-ca-USnPcQ8tgO | Will Nvidia have a higher market cap than Apple at any point before 2026 | null | 1,733,448,376,889 | 1,737,497,826,873 | 1,737,497,826,873 | YES | 0.99 | 923.030915 |
5C6LnsZuRZ | will-openai-make-o1-pro-mode-availa | Will OpenAI make o1 pro mode available on the API before 2026? | null | 1,733,440,850,582 | 1,742,424,082,322 | 1,742,424,082,322 | YES | 0.408917 | 456.304326 |
9hsZA9ts0S | will-i-get-another-manifold-referal | Will I get another Manifold referral before the end of this year ? | null | 1,733,436,648,252 | 1,735,700,135,252 | 1,735,700,135,252 | YES | 0.898932 | 1,312 |
U8t8EOOhcR | will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg--cash | Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025? | null | 1,733,425,711,054 | 1,737,437,049,787 | 1,737,437,059,883 | YES | 0.99 | 829.77442 |
RUyNAlUZhq | will-there-be-100-or-more-human-cas--cash | Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,425,472,278 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,761,927,065 | NO | 0.012004 | 394.785602 |
8ScLdSLp0h | will-lily-phillips-break-the-record--cash | Will Lily Phillips break the record for most sex partners in one day | null | 1,733,423,650,297 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,860,638,126 | NO | 0.01 | 958.280442 |
sU0ZRlIPI6 | will-the-french-government-face-a-n | Will the French government face a new no-confidence vote before January 31, 2025 | null | 1,733,423,325,416 | 1,738,454,400,000 | 1,745,507,341,057 | YES | 0.99 | 5,283.690542 |
E2S0Z0st9U | will-ethereum-hit-5k-usd-in-decembe | Will ethereum hit 5K USD in December '24? | null | 1,733,422,504,809 | 1,735,669,740,000 | 1,735,915,974,643 | NO | 0.017742 | 9,878.579151 |
NNhSNZInhq | will-the-new-french-prime-minister | Will the new French Prime Minister be from the current cabinet? | null | 1,733,420,177,697 | 1,735,624,740,000 | 1,738,619,453,418 | NO | 0.011193 | 1,364.320781 |
zy6Uc2ERCR | will-the-unitedhealthcare-killer-ki | Will the UnitedHealthcare killer kill or attempt to kill again? | null | 1,733,417,658,863 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,729,742,959 | NO | 0.016406 | 13,609.604295 |
tPA5LqRg5q | will-it-snow-in-downtown-seattle-be | Will it snow in downtown Seattle between now and the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,416,769,368 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,758,750,482 | NO | 0.066052 | 303.974293 |
tdscIpIUAs | will-biden-be-impeached-before-july | Will Biden be impeached before July 2025? | null | 1,733,416,441,378 | 1,751,382,134,739 | 1,751,382,134,739 | NO | 0.01 | 9,236.728884 |
8085AIy2sg | will-calin-georgescu-win-the-romani | Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election runoff? | null | 1,733,411,583,305 | 1,734,328,740,000 | 1,749,500,250,571 | NO | 0.01447 | 1,101.415108 |
U9Rghd6stq | will-the-miami-dolphins-intercept-a | Will the Miami Dolphins intercept Aaron Rodgers 3 or more times across both 2024 regular season games? | null | 1,733,401,422,262 | 1,736,131,150,600 | 1,736,131,150,600 | NO | 0.307692 | 50 |
Z60Q8tdNtZ | will-any-of-trumps-cabinet-be-confi | Will any of Trump's Cabinet be confirmed by the Senate on Inauguration Day? | null | 1,733,399,546,445 | 1,737,418,764,582 | 1,737,418,764,582 | YES | 0.97395 | 5,869.999988 |
uPghU6yqzC | bitcoin-110k-in-2024 | Bitcoin $110K in 2024? | null | 1,733,371,356,485 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,630,090 | NO | 0.011299 | 53,871.870702 |
gdEzgIEq6t | bitcoin-120k-in-2024 | Bitcoin $120K in 2024? | null | 1,733,371,284,910 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,541,286 | NO | 0.01052 | 96,628.38803 |
S6zNzEUL6g | will-bitcoin-hit-175k-before-75k | Will Bitcoin hit 175k before 75k? | null | 1,733,369,877,159 | 1,744,337,216,550 | 1,744,337,216,550 | NO | 0.01 | 3,324.109525 |
uUphPSqPAq | will-lily-phillips-break-the-record | Will Lily Phillips break the record for most sex partners in one day | null | 1,733,359,422,206 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,842,385,280 | NO | 0.009802 | 61,102.3386 |
sy690gdQLC | will-baron-trump-have-credible-rumo | Will Baron Trump have credible rumors of a girlfriend before the end of freshman year | null | 1,733,357,724,930 | 1,748,873,267,006 | 1,748,873,267,006 | NO | 0.044384 | 2,201.721095 |
6HEYbsqk35 | will-labs-should-be-explicit-about-qLyqCtZIZP | Will "Labs should be explicit about why they are bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,350,825,729 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,458,751 | YES | 0.14 | 0 |
mSeesg7i4d | will-apocalypse-insurance-and-the-h | Will "Apocalypse insurance, and the hardline libert..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,350,444,387 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,466,098 | NO | 0.105672 | 52.097773 |
z9sQ6I6pth | will-at-least-one-north-korean-sold | Will at least one North Korean soldier defect to any European country before March 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,350,182,034 | 1,740,787,140,000 | 1,744,449,392,115 | NO | 0.029066 | 5,604.757307 |
ZSZnI0zCLL | will-alphabet-google-reach-its-all | Will Alphabet (Google) Reach it's all time stock high at February 1st | null | 1,733,350,044,102 | 1,738,483,140,000 | 1,738,650,821,714 | YES | 0.982997 | 898.824931 |
ptgOnndcNp | will-ethereum-reach-5000-by-march-1 | Will Ethereum reach 5000 by March 1st? | null | 1,733,349,808,620 | 1,740,902,340,000 | 1,741,705,955,999 | NO | 0.01 | 1,029.220814 |
PC88lynRqc | will-openai-release-a-model-better | Will OpenAI release a model better than GPT-4o without test time compute before EOY 2024? | null | 1,733,345,837,240 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,745,657,795 | NO | 0.146095 | 365.954821 |
QuNcPc9E6L | will-brian-thompsons-wife-be-charge | Will the wife of Brian Thompson (UHC CEO) be charged with his murder (either directly or as accessory) by end of 2025? | null | 1,733,340,667,437 | 1,744,979,091,229 | 1,744,979,091,229 | NO | 0.010209 | 12,409.631183 |
cpl22lQ8NS | will-san-mateo-county-california-vo | Will San Mateo County, California voters allow Supervisors to remove the Sheriff? | null | 1,733,340,642,924 | 1,743,577,140,000 | 1,743,652,830,045 | YES | 0.764151 | 80 |
tpAzQRu99q | will-a-single-member-of-trumps-firs | Will at least one member of Trump's first confirmed cabinet be black? | null | 1,733,335,374,253 | 1,740,591,776,609 | 1,740,591,776,609 | YES | 0.99 | 987.428968 |
96s60q5EQc | will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next-y6Rgtqh29n | Will Volt be elected into the next Hamburg Parliament (2025)? | null | 1,733,335,279,506 | 1,743,072,252,908 | 1,743,072,252,908 | NO | 0.01 | 10,425.281508 |
zSLg2lQqRA | will-the-supreme-court-find-that-te | Will the Supreme Court find that Tennessee's SB1 (ban on transgender health care for minors) is constitutional? | null | 1,733,331,204,029 | 1,750,256,661,398 | 1,750,256,661,398 | YES | 0.99 | 13,875.806721 |
q0gElppAPu | will-the-killing-of-united-healthca | Will the killing of United Healthcare’s CEO be tied to a denial of service decision the company made by March 1st, 2025? | null | 1,733,330,423,959 | 1,740,891,540,000 | 1,741,047,782,778 | NO | 0.01 | 11,885.059271 |
8gbfvGhSnE | will-10-reasons-why-lists-of-10-rea | Will "10 reasons why lists of 10 reasons might be a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,329,103,851 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,476,886 | NO | 0.130793 | 7 |
R80stq0EO9 | china-hasalready-had-access-to-gpt4 | China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025 | null | 1,733,321,841,311 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,736,441,917,698 | NO | 0.051153 | 3,567.127788 |
9ZZzny5clO | doomsday-clock-set-at-less-than-90 | Doomsday Clock set at less than 90 seconds to midnight by January 2025 | null | 1,733,314,705,762 | 1,738,090,714,583 | 1,738,090,714,583 | YES | 0.990288 | 11,792.916543 |
nOq6RPZ8Qp | will-biden-have-granted-more-pardon | Will Biden have granted more pardon petitions than Trump (2017-2021)? | null | 1,733,305,649,982 | 1,737,500,340,000 | 1,738,419,645,830 | NO | 0.104947 | 23,784.827826 |
zOlCC5AnhU | will-valve-release-the-new-steam-co-SNhncndQt0 | Will Valve release the new Steam Controller 2 for order before end of March 2025? | null | 1,733,299,720,847 | 1,743,465,600,000 | 1,743,466,940,120 | NO | 0.01 | 1,088.431829 |
AUd50ty8dh | will-a-new-yankees-player-shave-the | Will a new Yankees player shave their facial hair due to joining the team in 2025? | null | 1,733,299,415,341 | 1,743,431,278,635 | 1,743,431,278,635 | YES | 0.99 | 904.749342 |
ygtAZhh0L8 | will-valve-release-the-new-steam-co | Will Valve release the new Steam Controller 2 before June 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,299,060,545 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,736,371,593 | NO | 0.01 | 1,880.117875 |
hnS29Q098y | will-trump-publicly-support-yoon-su | Will Trump Publicly Support Yoon Suk Yeol by the end of January 2025? | null | 1,733,298,940,350 | 1,738,472,340,000 | 1,738,476,092,133 | NO | 0.034168 | 1,429.777341 |
ZAuR55sSgI | will-the-house-release-the-gaetz-et | Will the House release the Gaetz ethics report by the end of January? | null | 1,733,296,540,971 | 1,736,272,443,568 | 1,736,272,443,568 | YES | 0.99 | 3,221.81058 |
O9zZLA8dt5 | will-trump-suggest-repealing-the-22 | Will Trump suggest repealing the 22nd Amendment (term limits) before inauguration? | null | 1,733,283,973,730 | 1,737,439,983,836 | 1,737,439,983,836 | NO | 0.022667 | 6,483.448758 |
SIUy62zynh | will-yoon-suk-yeol-still-be-korean | Will Yoon Suk Yeol still be Korean president on Jan 6th 2025? 🇰🇷 | null | 1,733,263,727,035 | 1,736,137,221,329 | 1,736,137,221,329 | YES | 0.982405 | 687,832.589143 |
hOZAgll6EU | will-korean-president-yoon-suk-yeol--cash | Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025? | null | 1,733,261,289,552 | 1,735,883,940,000 | 1,735,933,747,163 | NO | 0.002252 | 1,481.334359 |
8Ln9l8lsud | will-manifold-engaged-users-drop-to-R2L0AR6yCq | Will Manifold Engaged Users drop to 900 or lower before the end of december? | null | 1,733,251,314,806 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,861,019,607 | NO | 0.0126 | 1,021.057887 |
2UzCdhgQ6y | will-korean-president-yoon-suk-yeol | Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025? | null | 1,733,244,702,919 | 1,735,883,940,000 | 1,735,933,729,917 | NO | 0.002421 | 286,960.950455 |
gR89Q6dhdI | will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-arrested-befo | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026? | null | 1,733,242,131,881 | 1,737,002,035,869 | 1,737,002,035,869 | YES | 0.988101 | 22,590.433058 |
cZInLlIzhS | will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-president-of-56A2nQsUOy | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,241,478,191 | 1,735,747,140,000 | 1,735,765,877,559 | YES | 0.99 | 101,342.039095 |
yC29AlE0ES | will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-president-of | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 3, 2025? | null | 1,733,236,881,414 | 1,743,963,032,409 | 1,743,963,032,409 | NO | 0.024422 | 97,327.390928 |
lSpAtILdIu | will-south-korea-be-under-martial-l | Will South Korea be under martial law on January 1st 2025? | null | 1,733,235,197,547 | 1,735,624,800,000 | 1,735,765,904,856 | NO | 0.015484 | 11,710.082798 |
t9ZqzIplu6 | will-russia-lose-its-only-naval-bas | Will Russia lose its only naval base on the Mediterranean by the end of the year? | null | 1,733,221,559,878 | 1,735,769,997,185 | 1,735,769,997,185 | NO | 0.01 | 4,645.743228 |
0LSNQSpghz | biden-pardons-fauci | Biden pardons Fauci? | null | 1,733,194,003,471 | 1,737,405,402,979 | 1,737,405,402,979 | YES | 0.999882 | 321,633.488791 |
8ZLpclnEZd | z-fellows-partners-with-another-uni | Z Fellows partners with another university or accelerator program by May 31, 2025 | null | 1,733,186,585,884 | 1,744,133,731,242 | 1,744,133,731,242 | YES | 0.569429 | 15 |
tgtcgEcZnA | will-we-judge-autoadding-clarificat | Will we judge auto-adding clarifications from the author's comments to the description as a good feature by jan 2? | null | 1,733,175,216,369 | 1,735,843,885,914 | 1,736,527,107,376 | YES | 0.799696 | 8,119.092288 |
PQCLP5dA5h | will-the-election-results-of-the-26-9hs50NARUU | Will the election results of the 26 October 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia be annulled? | null | 1,733,174,711,216 | 1,740,783,540,000 | 1,740,786,725,623 | NO | 0.013538 | 10,600.536529 |
gPUS6z0d62 | california-will-reform-ceqa-to-make | California will reform CEQA to make it easier to develop within the state before EOY 2025 | null | 1,733,157,373,953 | 1,751,340,772,428 | 1,751,340,795,651 | YES | 0.492081 | 67 |
glI2NUEE2A | will-labor-win-the-australian-feder | Will Labor win the 2025 Australian federal election? | null | 1,733,152,152,577 | 1,746,268,517,051 | 1,746,268,517,051 | YES | 0.989689 | 187,179.333634 |
ONg9nCRC80 | will-kristi-noem-admit-she-shot-her | Will Kristi Noem admit she shot her dog during her confirmation hearing for Secretary of Homeland Security? | null | 1,733,131,787,090 | 1,737,982,164,661 | 1,737,982,164,661 | NO | 0.201675 | 1,363.778729 |
ZNI80chS0p | will-a-nuclear-device-be-used-offen | Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025? | null | 1,733,131,169,380 | 1,743,440,340,000 | 1,743,636,396,427 | NO | 0.01 | 13,001.162941 |
ylzE5Lduu5 | chamath-palihapitiya-announces-a-ne | Chamath Palihapitiya announces a new public startup investment before March 1, 2025 | null | 1,733,127,396,835 | 1,740,787,200,000 | 1,744,133,361,383 | NO | 0.334948 | 60 |
C0lSssnZIu | trump-team-releases-epsteindiddy-in | Trump team releases Epstein/Diddy information before January 31st, 2025. | null | 1,733,121,749,673 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,375,224,256 | NO | 0.012483 | 8,932.681943 |
2QCh0ZRL68 | bitcoin-below-90k-in-december | Bitcoin below $90K in December? | null | 1,733,114,420,195 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,469,000 | NO | 0.010523 | 60,425.987732 |
0tUgUlIAp2 | will-rpredictionmarkets-have-more-t-E6ELAdtyug | Will r/PredictionMarkets have more than 500 members by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,104,947,265 | 1,735,651,740,000 | 1,736,385,422,756 | NO | 0.043133 | 371 |
5hpPcRCgRc | will-rpredictionmarkets-have-more-t-luuUhq0l8p | Will r/PredictionMarkets have more than 250 members by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,104,908,411 | 1,735,651,740,000 | 1,736,385,435,828 | NO | 0.035265 | 427 |
Uyp55lO0qp | will-i-get-an-interview-at-deepmind | Will I get an interview at Deepmind | null | 1,733,099,257,052 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,164,377,326 | NO | 0.186972 | 1,228 |
895L0PlzgP | will-azeez-alshaair-play-another-ga | Will Azeez Al-Shaair play another game in the 2024-2025 NFL season? | null | 1,733,092,191,258 | 1,737,862,097,197 | 1,737,862,097,197 | YES | 0.542085 | 150.000012 |
h2SSdA8pQS | will-zvi-mowshowitz-earn-elonbucks | Will Zvi Mowshowitz earn ElonBucks by 3/1/25? | null | 1,733,091,729,904 | 1,740,891,540,000 | 1,740,917,173,131 | YES | 0.27213 | 2,435.591751 |
QznzPgInp5 | will-alexander-vindman-sue-elon-mus | Will Alexander Vindman sue Elon Musk for defamation by the end of May 2025? | null | 1,733,035,241,144 | 1,748,750,340,000 | 1,748,751,439,934 | NO | 0.01 | 956.629207 |
RnQq890Sy6 | will-marques-brownlee-mkbhd-release-ScAZOScuyu | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Friend AI wearable device before the end of May? | null | 1,733,034,442,960 | 1,748,750,340,000 | 1,748,751,445,256 | NO | 0.01 | 1,254.569432 |
qdE5nNOz0p | will-the-friend-wearable-ai-device-hp5SLLyyuc | Will the Friend wearable AI device start shipping to consumers before the end of January? | null | 1,733,034,363,863 | 1,738,385,940,000 | 1,738,386,660,652 | NO | 0.11 | 184.445234 |
O55gdRInsL | will-joseph-andersons-long-awaited | Will Joseph Anderson's long awaited Witcher 3 review release before the end of Valentine's Day 2025? | null | 1,733,025,497,009 | 1,739,681,940,000 | 1,739,682,764,912 | NO | 0.01 | 898.601724 |
c5h956ChLO | will-kash-patel-be-fbi-director | Will Kash Patel be FBI Director? | null | 1,733,016,624,839 | 1,740,794,169,293 | 1,740,794,169,293 | YES | 0.99 | 229,071.593889 |
RsQndRsQQE | will-laura-loomer-be-given-a-positi-UqS0ht2UhQ | Will Laura Loomer be given a position in Trump's government or another named Trump organization by the end of February? | null | 1,733,014,813,572 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,805,255,965 | NO | 0.010255 | 919.765242 |
9Q5yEqp0nl | better-mans-first-week-us-box-offic | Better Man's first week US box office gross exceeds $44.5 million | null | 1,733,004,336,942 | 1,739,165,546,434 | 1,739,165,898,616 | NO | 0.086486 | 225 |
8s90AUyQAL | will-prohts-rebels-be-in-damascus-p | Will pro-HTS rebels be in Damascus province at the end of the year? | null | 1,732,988,540,860 | 1,735,736,999,813 | 1,735,736,999,813 | YES | 0.978081 | 10,841.717949 |
A8ZSCs6Alu | will-either-seattle-or-tacoma-see-a | Will either Seattle or Tacoma see above average snowfall before Spring 2025? | null | 1,732,975,304,913 | 1,742,533,140,000 | 1,742,657,655,818 | NO | 0.043039 | 425 |
RIOuAqOA0g | will-any-of-the-top-5-global-compan-58UqhyyPpE | Will any of the top 5 global companies by market cap be non-American on March 29, 2025? | null | 1,732,974,363,092 | 1,743,269,035,417 | 1,743,269,035,417 | NO | 0.01 | 4,515.610152 |
tAuREqhzZU | will-israel-annex-the-west-bank-bef | Will Israel annex the West Bank before December 24th, 2024? | null | 1,732,957,039,327 | 1,735,624,740,000 | 1,736,619,041,159 | NO | 0.010221 | 11,286.569037 |
lLd8ZlCOSt | codebuff-solves-at-least-40-of-issu | Codebuff solves at least 40% of issues on SWE-Bench by March 31, 2025 | null | 1,732,920,801,153 | 1,743,379,200,000 | 1,744,283,049,134 | NO | 0.179967 | 1,386 |
2pc9dg8Z0c | will-moana-2-have-a-higher-total-do | Will "Moana 2" have a higher total domestic gross than "The Super Mario Bros. Movie"? (>$574 million) | null | 1,732,899,884,504 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,740,848,533,526 | NO | 0.009416 | 2,053.018164 |
L5O9C0gA66 | will-wicked-have-a-higher-total-dom | Will "Wicked" have a higher total domestic gross than "Frozen 2"? (>$477 million) | null | 1,732,899,129,810 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,743,347,275,335 | NO | 0.01 | 2,112.376426 |
IEAOzZy5SC | will-the-uk-legalise-assisted-dying | Will the UK legalise assisted dying before 2025? | null | 1,732,887,293,485 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,740,559,720,384 | NO | 0.037314 | 613.21139 |
5yh9uzNP6I | the-pickle-will-have-more-sales-tha | The pickle will have more sales than the dove by 2/1/2025 | null | 1,732,885,387,296 | 1,738,475,940,000 | 1,738,953,279,792 | NO | 0.682146 | 130 |
5pgcLQPPAO | elon-musk-leads-an-investment-group | Elon Musk leads an investment group to purchase MSNBC by 6/5/2025 | null | 1,732,879,147,295 | 1,749,189,540,000 | 1,749,499,426,999 | NO | 0.01 | 1,681.271884 |
90PUqhqIu2 | will-anthropic-have-a-super-bowl-ad | Will Anthropic have a Super Bowl ad? | null | 1,732,837,339,909 | 1,739,202,960,264 | 1,739,202,960,264 | NO | 0.004535 | 14,682.833553 |
R8htnhI88C | is-cremieux-same-person-as-alexande | Is Cremieux same person as Alexander Kreul? | null | 1,732,827,881,920 | 1,742,396,670,981 | 1,742,396,670,981 | NO | 0.293902 | 55 |
ufW5LvcwDu | will-latent-variables-for-predictio | Will "Latent variables for prediction markets: moti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,732,826,454,101 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,499,344 | NO | 0.14 | 0 |
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