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scott-alexander-publishes-a-post-on
Scott Alexander publishes a post on ACX before Tuesday midnight PST?
null
1,748,681,078,374
1,748,879,765,346
1,748,879,765,346
YES
0.989961
9,507.450941
clQP0EQ90z
bitcoin-115k-in-june
Bitcoin $115K in June?
null
1,748,680,766,548
1,751,353,140,000
1,751,353,304,261
NO
0.01
71,717.224058
lOZEU88Q0O
will-i-be-detained-upon-entering-th
Will I be detained upon entering the U.S.?
null
1,748,678,936,682
1,748,728,219,066
1,748,728,219,066
NO
0.070719
24,820.200863
tLhphqc8hP
daily-coinflip-333-665ZC5QZ50
Daily Coinflip
null
1,748,675,656,285
1,748,836,740,000
1,748,841,288,808
NO
0.5
4,737.737484
NZz8ttcUUt
will-the-spx-sp-500-reach-6000-by-e-Cl9yOg28NC
will the SPX / S&P 500 reach 6000 by end of June?
null
1,748,673,583,368
1,749,222,123,062
1,749,222,123,062
YES
0.99
2,385.612629
6p8u2CLd5U
taelin-survives-their-meningitis
Taelin survives their meningitis?
null
1,748,669,609,954
1,750,576,068,902
1,750,576,068,902
YES
0.872644
186
Zzs6dLRQyg
will-bitcoin-fall-to-100k-in-may
Will Bitcoin fall to $100k in May? [short fuse]
null
1,748,657,836,428
1,748,750,340,000
1,748,750,449,572
NO
0.000767
35,232.675008
ncttCS8qcN
will-mr-beast-post-a-video-on-may-3
Will Mr. Beast post a video on May 31st , 2025 on any of his channels ?
null
1,748,645,884,069
1,748,711,156,073
1,748,711,156,073
YES
0.989969
1,502.523247
SnUQE0hNLy
short-fuse-will-carlos-alcaraz-adva
[Short Fuse] Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the fourth round of the 2025 French Open in four sets?
null
1,748,640,936,151
1,748,641,625,706
1,748,641,625,706
YES
0.99
27,411.625144
zSOn6yh5PO
does-chatgpt-o3-make-egregious-erro
Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?
null
1,748,635,842,441
1,750,363,320,000
1,750,549,891,320
YES
0.99
121,493.622316
lq5pnZORQh
ice-raids-nsda-national-debate-tour
ICE raids NSDA National Debate Tournament (June 15-21, 2025) in Des Moines?
null
1,748,629,554,412
1,750,550,340,000
1,750,550,537,849
NO
0.070463
420.954268
Q0dlcu0ghA
florida-panthers-win-the-2025-stanl
Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup Finals
null
1,748,627,304,844
1,751,291,086,607
1,751,291,086,607
YES
0.876599
1,811.801494
czQNcZAcQE
avi-vs-matthew-debate-on-fine-tunin
Avi Vs. Matthew debate on fine tuning happens before July?
null
1,748,627,046,560
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,390,788,067
NO
0.015441
7,038.768986
0OuupsAsAn
will-someone-get-a-score-of-10-on-t
Will someone get a score of 10 on the ARML 2025 Individual Round?
null
1,748,612,111,037
1,748,707,200,000
1,748,721,171,532
NO
0.769946
175.338682
9Atp5c9LSZ
bernie-sanders-endorses-zohran-mamd
Bernie Sanders endorses Zohran Mamdani before NYC mayoral primary?
null
1,748,607,239,110
1,750,163,016,814
1,750,163,016,814
YES
0.958251
1,971.907847
ZcpyZ2UpUR
will-the-lonza-make-an-uncontrolled
Will the Lonza make an uncontrolled break-through the collapsed glacier?
null
1,748,589,743,480
1,749,367,140,000
1,749,402,991,766
NO
0.216195
927.831778
y69L5u9dzz
will-i-obtain-a-switch-2-before-the
Will I obtain a Switch 2 before the end of the year?
null
1,748,549,453,676
1,751,390,359,976
1,751,390,359,976
YES
0.964553
686.856871
ytnSQdLLUR
will-the-indiana-pacers-win-the-nba
Will the Indiana Pacers win the NBA title?
null
1,748,540,998,292
1,750,649,332,133
1,750,649,339,958
NO
0.01
3,110.877641
PlEL8znQQq
oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2025
Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals
null
1,748,540,709,933
1,750,650,045,916
1,750,650,045,916
YES
0.99
4,189.452258
shplRUhOd8
will-no-one-say-hello-today
will no one say hello today?
null
1,748,539,183,071
1,748,539,354,201
1,748,539,354,201
NO
0.42
1,680.511977
9Lp0NzNAph
scott-alexander-debates-usaid-at-ma
Scott Alexander debates USAID at Manifest?
null
1,748,528,462,032
1,749,434,400,000
1,749,611,517,768
NO
0.134813
2,615.768082
N5qO5Nl0Ls
will-manifold-successfully-guess-wh-clz6PztQRz
Will Manifold successfully guess who I am thinking of within a week? (Insider info and mana prize for winner)
null
1,748,517,924,711
1,748,859,027,656
1,748,859,027,656
YES
0.99
1,401.231164
Pn5cZdO9h2
bitcoin-reaches-120k-by-end-of-june
Bitcoin reaches 120k by end of June?
null
1,748,492,038,659
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,333,012,085
NO
0.01
2,703.609314
shlqtEP8OE
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-PUnpzOllpn
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 205 and 206?
null
1,748,470,814,125
1,749,680,463,189
1,749,680,466,425
NO
0.1
2,000
tstcq9d0Pl
will-apple-use-year-based-numbering
Will Apple use year based numbering for next operating systems?
null
1,748,461,063,584
1,749,489,276,794
1,749,489,276,794
YES
0.819107
1,314.737767
hOdZtO0Z5U
daily-coinflip-333
Daily Coinflip 333
null
1,748,451,796,265
1,748,663,940,000
1,748,672,352,190
NO
0.490051
5,667.829018
p5NntNdlIN
andrej-karpathy-tweet-creates-new-a
Andrej Karpathy tweet creates new apps?
null
1,748,447,356,485
1,750,670,018,611
1,750,670,018,611
YES
0.604141
206.51521
tNcE96ZU8O
starships-next-three-flights-each-l
Starship's next three flights each launch within six weeks of prior?
null
1,748,444,564,117
1,751,385,170,148
1,751,385,170,148
NO
0.01
10,332.181057
sSQAOOuAqO
yoshiki-takei-wins-wbo-bantamweight
Yoshiki Takei wins WBO Bantamweight Title Match on May 28, 2025?
null
1,748,432,096,798
1,748,433,167,918
1,748,433,167,918
YES
0.952234
373.508932
Z0zcqLl92U
solana-up-5-today
SOLANA up 5% today?
null
1,748,426,733,941
1,748,470,093,916
1,748,470,093,916
NO
0.44
243.9018
ghLQCS0PLN
solana-pumps-today
Will Solana pump today?
null
1,748,426,403,628
1,748,426,468,769
1,748,426,468,769
YES
0.5
0
p062IC92yc
btc-daily-candle-closes-positive
BTC daily candle closes positive?
null
1,748,425,297,974
1,748,476,920,000
1,748,505,173,207
NO
0.63
138.685209
00E80OLPql
eth-at-2800-by-months-end
Will Ethereum(ETH)reach $2800 in may?
null
1,748,425,067,619
1,748,649,540,000
1,748,766,198,099
NO
0.015295
1,937.719683
QLnqs8OQZz
trump-makes-remote-appearance-at-bi
Trump makes remote appearance at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas?
null
1,748,422,480,138
1,748,473,140,000
1,748,528,506,878
NO
0.226116
85
h0tu6yZ06h
rikishi-masanori-wins-ibf-super-fea
Rikishi Masanori wins IBF Super Featherweight Championship on May 28, 2025?
null
1,748,420,315,857
1,748,431,800,000
1,748,431,973,448
NO
0.211069
130
hANUCSsRqA
bitcoin-above-109k-on-june-4
Bitcoin above $109K on June 4?
null
1,748,416,972,669
1,749,106,740,000
1,749,107,921,346
NO
0.00954
27,754.906634
uCQIgqt5tP
super-earth-falls-to-the-illuminate
Super Earth falls to the Illuminate in Helldivers 2?
null
1,748,411,932,297
1,748,642,266,521
1,748,642,266,521
NO
0.361154
33
NIlpc5RhgA
will-aurem-labs-get-funded-at-manif
Will Aurem Labs get funded at Manifest?
null
1,748,405,890,979
1,751,309,493,582
1,751,309,493,582
NO
0.02239
77,656.119157
lhdlldAgIU
i-average-8500-steps-per-day-in-jun
I average 8500+ steps per day in June 2025?
null
1,748,404,330,832
1,751,250,391,086
1,751,250,391,086
YES
0.897829
3,454.974542
Ac28EqEOS9
1-usd-worth-150-jpy-or-more-in-june
1 USD worth 150 JPY or more in June?
null
1,748,398,308,707
1,751,358,432,166
1,751,358,432,166
NO
0.01
12,853.072072
0zpOucp0R0
will-marques-brownlee-mkbhd-release-6Rn0hsSSp2
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Friend AI wearable device before the end of June?
null
1,748,380,018,942
1,751,325,880,651
1,751,325,880,651
NO
0.014146
965.183605
gLcNcQ5E9g
will-hikaru-nakamura-go-over-2816-c
Will Hikaru Nakamura go over 2816 classical Elo in the next 30 days?
null
1,748,379,634,931
1,750,646,105,660
1,750,646,105,660
NO
0.01
945.009317
hgZsPdqqlU
will-there-be-an-erupting-volcano-d
Will there be an erupting volcano during Molly & Juan's Wedding weekend? 🌋
null
1,748,377,658,051
1,750,809,540,000
1,751,291,200,801
NO
0.117413
195
qht0S8E8C9
will-i-qualify-for-an-international-2gUSLSszAI
Will I qualify for an international olympiad this year?
null
1,748,375,294,508
1,750,633,140,000
1,751,139,809,102
NO
0.71517
1,196.549174
EnhOI6nLcQ
will-the-pink-jersey-change-hands-d
Will the pink jersey change hands during/after Stage 20 of the 2025 Giro d'Italia?
null
1,748,369,814,759
1,748,692,800,000
1,748,702,467,594
YES
0.447708
963.47495
IZ0OO0A600
trump-pauses-or-cancels-tariffs-aga
Trump pauses or cancels tariffs again in July?
null
1,748,366,756,117
1,751,989,495,115
1,751,989,495,115
YES
0.989957
11,350.904537
8PcdtnUyOR
superheavy-flight-9-soft-touchdown
Superheavy flight 9 soft touchdown
null
1,748,360,566,879
1,748,394,507,680
1,748,394,507,680
NO
0.001043
4,961.527784
ELqn26cQS6
will-silksong-release-on-june-20
Will Silksong release on June 20?
null
1,748,357,522,122
1,750,463,940,000
1,750,644,322,148
NO
0.01
983.492254
0pUzu5EdgR
will-bitcoin-dominance-fall-to-60-o
Will Bitcoin dominance fall to 62% or lower before May 31, 2025?
null
1,748,332,535,952
1,748,649,540,000
1,748,959,120,229
NO
0.014288
12,314.054673
8qORsA5IhA
the-price-of-solana-will-exceed-210
The price of Solana will exceed 210 by May 31 ?
null
1,748,329,890,750
1,748,736,660,000
1,748,766,184,374
NO
0.01
2,626.260876
L5UIu05thl
will-juan-ayuso-be-at-least-a-minut
Will Juan Ayuso be at least a minute ahead of Isaac Del Toro (ON THE ROAD) in the final week of the 2025 Giro d'Italia?
null
1,748,322,700,347
1,748,534,561,644
1,748,534,561,644
NO
0.012142
8,551.534352
2Q9ZINquCs
will-bitcoin-fall-below-100k-by-jun
Will Bitcoin fall below $100k by June 30th?
null
1,748,313,149,273
1,750,690,476,519
1,750,690,476,519
YES
0.99
25,078.006744
hEynpILp9I
f-Uy6ULPdUPh
f
null
1,748,310,402,556
1,748,402,786,160
1,748,402,786,160
YES
0.784754
115
SA62qIPEzR
i-score-5-on-the-ap-physics-1-exam
I score 5 on the AP Physics 1 exam in May 2025
null
1,748,310,336,036
1,748,310,384,782
1,748,310,384,782
YES
0.735294
110
ZhQRPEE8El
will-adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-get
Will adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx get sold for under $70 on StockX
null
1,748,306,802,797
1,748,911,380,000
1,748,912,491,089
NO
0.290734
56.191369
QgZCLZZQtl
merab-dvalishvili-submits-sean-omal
Merab Dvalishvili submits Sean O’Malley at UFC 316?
null
1,748,296,702,263
1,749,364,895,560
1,749,364,895,560
YES
0.99
1,272.006264
yqUdsllRAA
ilia-topuria-knocks-out-charles-oli
Ilia Topuria knocks out Charles Oliveira?
null
1,748,296,495,607
1,751,061,180,000
1,751,204,844,147
YES
0.614453
298.176372
SdPEpsLs0c
this-question-have-32-traders-by-ju
Will this question have 32+ traders by July 1?
null
1,748,290,276,912
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,358,897,657
YES
0.995561
798,158.538464
RdnQQRP8LR
will-this-question-get-20-traders-b
Will this question get 20 traders by June 1st?
null
1,748,289,180,166
1,748,822,340,000
1,748,829,450,059
NO
0.15
445.247282
h69RtC62OI
claude-4-1-on-eqbench-creative-writ
Claude 4 #1 on EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3?
null
1,748,286,044,396
1,748,591,441,165
1,748,591,445,376
NO
0.409836
20
ypR0AA5glU
will-ilia-topuria-defeat-charles-ol
Will Ilia Topuria defeat Charles Oliveira at UFC 317?
null
1,748,283,314,523
1,751,172,938,839
1,751,172,938,839
YES
0.989571
116,955.238035
uth59stsPg
will-sean-omalley-defeat-merab-dvav
Will Sean O'Malley defeat Merab Dvavlishvili at UFC 316?
null
1,748,283,255,621
1,749,393,618,656
1,749,393,618,656
NO
0.007605
10,819.008509
uucCztssLE
incentive-market-will-i-do-thing-ev
Incentive market: Will I do <thing> every day this week?
null
1,748,280,633,110
1,748,624,880,000
1,748,675,264,066
YES
0.96421
114,252.859444
ySAPU0u2np
-3-stars-on-crossovers-complex-prob
Will I get >= 3 stars on Crossover's "Complex Problem-Solving in Code" test?
null
1,748,280,236,533
1,749,040,641,124
1,749,040,641,124
NO
0.019256
697
0LISQ968On
will-i-get-top-5-at-arml-this-year
Will I get top 5 at ARML this year?
null
1,748,279,683,696
1,748,538,840,000
1,748,721,139,510
NO
0.530698
86
6cpzyP2UUN
will-i-have-problems-with-twitter-n
Will I have problems with twitter notifications again before Friday?
null
1,748,279,197,763
1,748,624,760,000
1,748,675,389,379
NO
0.012519
114,737.787046
9A5ZspLqpL
palestinian-activists-shut-down-ont
Palestinian activists shut down Ontario Food Terminal?
null
1,748,278,782,574
1,748,732,400,000
1,748,960,362,722
NO
0.15622
176.064086
9sZysLEplp
will-waymo-be-a-rideshare-option-in
Will Waymo be a rideshare option in Google Maps by 2026?
null
1,748,273,438,799
1,748,619,241,232
1,748,619,241,232
YES
0.99
1,350.724089
yC8NguICtq
will-an-ai-model-surpasses-o3s-math
Will an AI model surpasses o3's matharena.ai 88% Overall score by July 1, 2025?
null
1,748,272,005,736
1,752,117,753,649
1,752,117,825,711
NO
0.073667
1,640.996249
Nc28pQERch
will-claude-opus-4-reach-enlightenm
Will Claude Opus 4 reach enlightenment in AI Digest’s Agent Village, before July?
null
1,748,271,818,849
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,390,828,581
NO
0.061588
3,696
Ezt56LgZzL
daily-coinflip-gQlINICq2c
Daily coinflip
null
1,748,243,083,570
1,748,404,740,000
1,748,424,065,160
NO
0.50431
1,985.624501
LynOU0uzEz
predetermined-coinflip
Predetermined Coinflip
null
1,748,238,252,291
1,748,325,600,000
1,748,325,680,166
NO
0.39
804.028363
RQs6AlU9p6
will-my-26th-best-friend-get-a-boyf
will my 26th best friend get a boyfriend at USACO camp?
null
1,748,232,015,124
1,748,896,472,471
1,748,896,472,471
NO
0.033436
1,655.014864
OhICUZI0hz
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-O2Sq299UPu
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 81 and 82?
null
1,748,227,976,419
1,748,832,720,000
1,748,839,615,186
NO
0.179955
1,134.702856
lzz205O055
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-n8PPdPgpUO
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1150 and 1151?
null
1,748,227,949,979
1,748,832,720,000
1,748,839,648,529
NO
0.224968
1,086.365493
RyUAUtUPRc
will-the-2025-french-open-have-a-fi
Will the 2025 French Open have a first time men's major finalist?
null
1,748,226,946,652
1,749,223,695,914
1,749,223,695,914
NO
0.01
14,243.599373
tuNPRlnhn9
will-will-my-net-worth-be-above-m20
Will "Will my net worth be above Ṁ200,000 in a week?" be re-resolved?
null
1,748,151,538,625
1,750,743,420,000
1,750,762,679,276
NO
0.01
1,649.176193
NynIlAdZ26
will-hasan-piker-be-unbanned-from-t
Will Hasan Piker be unbanned from twitch in under 24 hours?
null
1,748,147,275,271
1,748,233,620,000
1,748,237,902,655
NO
0.071576
5,058.279274
LLup9R0Qu9
will-my-net-worth-be-above-m250000
Will my net worth be above Ṁ250,000 in a week?
null
1,748,134,680,617
1,748,739,600,000
1,748,739,639,359
NO
0.31
204.574955
uIUhS2RNl0
twitter-notifications-better-for-me
Twitter notifications better for me tomorrow?
null
1,748,119,747,139
1,748,242,740,000
1,748,279,084,275
YES
0.907697
27,033.87156
ZzEIsQhQEO
bitcoin-above-108k-on-may-31
Bitcoin above $108K on May 31?
null
1,748,118,318,548
1,748,761,140,000
1,748,815,220,421
NO
0.01
26,381.255364
9Ols06St2N
sp-500-above-5800-on-may-30
S&P 500 above $5800 on May 30?
null
1,748,114,910,980
1,748,649,540,000
1,748,652,283,075
YES
0.991287
26,835.196327
q2yRlgPUAL
big-beautiful-bill-passes-senate
Big Beautiful Bill passes Senate?
null
1,748,109,516,136
1,751,439,259,837
1,751,439,259,837
YES
0.99
7,308.0484
60qZA2N5QS
will-a-major-us-survey-by-end-of-20
Will a major US survey by end of 2026 show that >1% of respondents believe AI systems are conscious?
null
1,748,104,023,160
1,748,154,814,950
1,748,154,814,950
YES
0.833821
124
pCPl9qgu6S
will-elizabeth-tsurkov-be-freed-bef
Will Elizabeth Tsurkov be freed before June 30?
null
1,748,098,624,676
1,751,328,684,716
1,751,328,684,716
NO
0.079064
289.378632
R6hcI82d6d
wird-es-eine-personaldebatte-fur-di
Wird es eine Personaldebatte für die Bundesdelis geben?
null
1,748,083,103,208
1,748,111,106,380
1,748,111,106,380
NO
0.01
5,862.083393
5SnONszZdL
wird-es-eine-personaldebatte-fur-ls
Wird es eine Personaldebatte für LSSP geben?
null
1,748,082,930,877
1,748,090,972,696
1,748,090,972,696
NO
0.01
5,077.308357
phhItpQ5yS
will-shohei-ohtani-pitch-for-the-lo
Will Shohei Ohtani pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers before the MLB All-Star break?
null
1,748,081,360,894
1,750,127,076,106
1,750,127,076,106
YES
0.99
965.880245
CN8Zn0Z86O
daily-coinflip-uqLQUNqLyp
Daily coinflip
null
1,748,068,884,807
1,748,231,940,000
1,748,243,065,475
YES
0.50273
6,944.089893
CSzuhgn05t
will-there-be-a-nintendo-direct-bef
Will there be a Nintendo Direct before June 22?
null
1,748,046,343,400
1,750,251,608,833
1,750,251,608,833
YES
0.99
14,452.066705
R5qhdUyRqN
will-my-4th-best-friend-get-a-boyfr
Will my 4th best friend get a boyfriend at usaco camp?
null
1,748,038,751,913
1,748,897,345,683
1,748,897,350,844
YES
0.973928
2,000.941433
LNIZytEZsd
my-24th-best-friend-finds-girlfrien
My 24th best friend finds girlfriend at USACO camp 2025?
null
1,748,037,951,484
1,748,620,068,755
1,748,620,068,755
YES
0.99
7,715.317179
CUP8uuuAOS
twitter-notifications-back-today
twitter notifications back today?
null
1,748,028,694,863
1,748,050,652,862
1,748,050,652,862
YES
0.989726
141,143.284158
5Ey0zUPdqC
wird-der-tagesprasident-am-sonntagm
Wird der Tagespräsident am Sonntagmorgen pünktlich sein?
null
1,748,026,362,133
1,748,160,885,858
1,748,160,885,858
NO
0.01
6,788.678382
ERshLI6ctL
wird-der-tagesprasident-morgen-fruh
Wird der Tagespräsident morgen früh pünktlich sein?
null
1,748,025,665,068
1,748,070,013,911
1,748,070,013,911
YES
0.879922
7,862.677406
CugIyNQ0cn
wird-jemand-bei-neles-entlastung-he
Wird jemand bei Neles Entlastung heulen?
null
1,748,025,116,757
1,748,031,129,355
1,748,031,129,355
YES
0.975093
24,631.579394
h8N56RqQu8
wird-bei-emilias-entlastung-geheult
Wird bei Emilia's Entlastung geheult?
null
1,748,024,178,083
1,748,025,056,369
1,748,025,056,369
NO
0.37
4,031.525679
2IU5ZPqsUn
grok-35-available-before-june
Grok 3.5 available before June?
null
1,748,023,207,645
1,748,757,540,000
1,748,760,385,604
NO
0.018157
9,625.180732
tZI2qhgggC
50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?
null
1,748,016,785,031
1,748,815,140,000
1,748,867,297,245
NO
0.009844
42,909.298977
gRNt2qQ6Qu
magnitude-50-earthquake-in-turkey-b
Magnitude 5.0+ earthquake in Turkey before September 2025
null
1,748,008,887,162
1,748,969,893,736
1,748,969,893,736
YES
0.454553
630.348519