Datasets:
CK0607
/
closed-manifold

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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Sq8EEhE0td
apple-watch-ultra-3-launches-before
Apple Watch Ultra 3 launches before September 30, 2025
null
1,746,092,318,928
1,746,100,166,459
1,746,100,166,459
YES
0.561981
142.49741
0sl9Rp6N68
my-previous-market-removed
My previous market removed?
null
1,746,086,852,530
1,746,250,694,390
1,746,250,694,390
YES
0.993026
1,448.824592
z6tpQ9Phsu
espn-flagship-service-launches-befo
ESPN Flagship service launches before September 1, 2025
null
1,746,085,605,660
1,746,100,189,160
1,746,100,189,160
YES
0.498882
58.867544
dscCpstu60
will-the-global-iptv-market-reach-1
Will the global IPTV market reach $115.2 billion by 2026?
null
1,746,084,826,474
1,746,100,224,681
1,746,100,224,681
YES
0.590164
160
phcNuO5LRz
daily-coinflip-tstS2ztcCU
Daily coinflip
null
1,746,077,115,441
1,746,244,740,000
1,746,253,033,711
YES
0.502494
16,840.687943
EtguLzPszL
will-the-hillary-clinton-leaderboar
Will the Hillary Clinton Leaderboard mystery be solved in May?
null
1,746,076,927,623
1,746,121,843,935
1,746,121,843,935
YES
0.957947
510
S9tLydsCCA
will-david-hogg-last-his-full-term
Will David Hogg last his full term as Vice Chair of the DNC?
null
1,746,063,527,777
1,751,573,175,039
1,751,573,175,039
NO
0.014324
3,661.996252
nzz09cI0ZU
i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th
I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.
null
1,746,062,202,975
1,751,332,080,000
1,751,404,921,534
YES
0.146505
65,671.558217
nqyRq20uOq
jp-morgan-stock-above-255-by-may-5
JP Morgan stock above $270 by May 5?
null
1,746,055,491,118
1,746,489,540,000
1,746,490,210,261
NO
0.012514
1,229.548965
6gOu6LLOQP
will-kosmos-482-venerian-descent-cr
Will Kosmos 482 venerian descent craft earth reëntry cause property or personnel damage?
null
1,746,052,565,595
1,747,054,958,160
1,747,054,958,160
NO
0.017863
1,238
P2lPpQE8C6
will-enough-intactish-junk-be-retri
Will enough intactish junk be retrieved from Kosmos 482 venerian descent craft earth reëntry to display?
null
1,746,052,183,320
1,746,874,052,775
1,747,530,065,841
NO
0.609109
161.441881
U2R8Sh0qgt
will-i-robincvgr-be-late-to-pay-bac
Will I (@Robincvgr) be late to pay back a loan?
null
1,746,043,526,980
1,748,480,609,869
1,748,480,609,869
YES
0.99
1,349.935233
Qtlsgz2lP6
will-the-united-states-deport-a-nat
Will the United States deport a natural born citizen during the month of May?
null
1,746,043,028,565
1,748,544,475,970
1,748,544,475,970
YES
0.782556
3,676.0468
lIt8NPzSRq
will-there-be-any-deaths-due-to-wil
Will there be any deaths due to wildfires in Israel by May 15th?
null
1,746,042,654,675
1,747,353,540,000
1,747,372,814,898
NO
0.069097
8,654.629565
EQ8ph50SRZ
zvi-gets-a-nintendo-switch-2-by-aug
Zvi gets a Nintendo Switch 2 by August 1?
null
1,746,042,432,985
1,750,455,720,822
1,750,455,720,822
YES
0.985058
121,346.166186
PZlun5P2Sc
will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below-n6sdg6692z
Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in 2025?
null
1,746,037,990,456
1,748,886,819,879
1,748,886,819,879
YES
0.989316
24,978.496878
SOhycqsAyS
will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below-dsNngqcUgd
Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in May? (Season 25)
null
1,746,037,793,070
1,748,649,540,000
1,748,886,801,007
YES
0.940831
2,759.913674
UNAOZnnPhd
will-barcelona-win-the-champions-le
Will Barcelona win the Champions League and the League?😉🔴🔵
null
1,746,029,266,161
1,746,889,859,503
1,746,889,859,503
NO
0.008155
1,655.75584
LC9LZENn5d
david-sachs-on-allin-podcast-this-w
David Sachs on All-In podcast this week?
null
1,746,026,556,052
1,746,271,836,749
1,746,271,836,749
YES
0.6
54.752051
0NCRu5ycdq
jerusalem-forest-fire-fatalities-be
Jerusalem forest fire fatalities before May 27, 2025?
null
1,746,021,898,140
1,748,300,400,000
1,748,324,690,587
NO
0.011205
1,388.626239
IN25sgA90O
will-i-study-for-120-minutes-per-da
Will I study for 120 minutes per day* in May?
null
1,746,021,195,556
1,748,698,692,930
1,748,698,692,930
YES
0.979996
6,398.490968
NnLpd2l2O0
will-i-get-more-than-four-5s-on-my
Will I get more than four 5's out of my 7 AP exams this year?
null
1,746,018,260,568
1,751,667,300,000
1,751,900,313,423
YES
0.985098
4,408.030931
POINcphg28
peter-dutton-loses-his-seat-in-the
Peter Dutton loses his seat in the 2025 election?
null
1,746,014,954,429
1,748,735,940,000
1,748,982,559,139
YES
0.990331
1,512.170484
ccpO8gd9yq
will-i-strikeown-the-libsstrike-ent
Will I <strike>own the libs</strike> enter the profit leaderboard before the end of June 2025?
null
1,746,009,455,105
1,751,407,140,000
1,751,474,142,955
NO
0.000035
14,932.565586
IypPpONcRs
will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-photogr-29suPst6zP
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before June 1st, 2025?
null
1,745,990,807,465
1,748,813,074,086
1,748,813,074,086
NO
0.37
67,029.813093
CphzqlhEAy
lakers-beat-timberwolves-tomorrow
Lakers beat Timberwolves tomorrow?
null
1,745,988,114,500
1,746,074,400,000
1,746,076,083,307
NO
0.54
484.732926
nRACAnZOLI
i-play-magic-the-gathering-this-wee-SR8ZqgqIEc
I play Magic the Gathering this week?
null
1,745,986,577,166
1,747,109,700,000
1,747,168,378,489
NO
0.290498
99.719452
hLsCtCAOhq
india-launches-military-operation-i
India launches military operation in Pakistan by end of May?
null
1,745,965,480,994
1,746,565,841,817
1,746,565,935,274
YES
0.981552
15,452.602712
hh0chQ5CAO
will-the-us-10year-treasury-note-ex
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury note exceed 4.5% at any point before July 28, 2025?
null
1,745,961,317,606
1,747,863,190,067
1,747,863,194,214
YES
0.522359
25.42358
u2UC5ut9I9
will-tumbles-pay-back-any-amount-of
Will Tumbles pay back any amount of his loans before Christmas?
null
1,745,953,055,645
1,746,096,005,487
1,746,096,005,487
YES
0.99
1,052.697495
c5ChIsRqQA
public-news-that-a-roman-catholic-c
Public news that a Roman Catholic Cleric has bet on the papacy or participated on a prediction market on it.
null
1,745,951,932,769
1,749,312,000,000
1,749,312,501,192
NO
0.01
1,024.966419
ANs0852nq6
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-S5U59220nn
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 202 and 203?
null
1,745,950,021,184
1,746,554,760,000
1,746,561,840,588
NO
0.14868
1,845
lE8EtO56EZ
european-union-downgrades-wolf-prot
European Union downgrades wolf protection status in 2025
null
1,745,931,646,205
1,746,779,115,061
1,746,779,115,061
YES
0.547511
55
hhyh68SlRc
will-donald-trump-surrender-the-tar
Will Donald Trump surrender the tariff war against China by May 1st ?
null
1,745,924,816,349
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,057,827,615
NO
0.027394
758.869487
I25L0gICUu
will-creepcasts-spire-in-the-woodse
Will CreepCast’s “Spire In The Woods”episode be voluntarily or involuntarily removed from YouTube?
null
1,745,919,704,058
1,748,511,600,000
1,748,713,092,821
NO
0.324295
178.090456
NN9p22Eddn
will-peter-dutton-lose-his-seat-in
Will Peter Dutton lose his seat after the Australian federal election?
null
1,745,918,522,739
1,746,274,448,017
1,746,274,448,017
YES
0.99
11,051.56735
qyyhdsgOq6
will-dutton-be-the-leader-of-the-ln
Will Dutton be the leader of the LNP at the end of May
null
1,745,915,346,282
1,748,649,540,000
1,748,657,405,625
NO
0.01
1,050.806275
nOshtyszzC
trump-and-xi-meet-in-person-before
Trump and Xi meet in person before July?
null
1,745,913,904,021
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,384,516,769
NO
0.010838
23,984.573909
5p68zdCyNd
will-i-pass-10k-on-manifold-in-the
Will I pass 10K on Manifold in the next 7 days?
null
1,745,905,031,043
1,746,073,404,099
1,746,073,404,099
YES
0.95
2,298.115441
6RhIzCPCuZ
daily-coinflip-AONQnQ8yOZ
Daily coinflip
null
1,745,904,220,779
1,746,071,940,000
1,746,077,099,018
YES
0.500023
5,529.054093
6nCPlRNd95
trump-questions-legitimacy-of-canad
Trump questions legitimacy of Canadian elections by the end of May?
null
1,745,893,935,002
1,748,735,940,000
1,748,782,964,073
NO
0.01383
8,600.125238
0Shgzy2lc2
will-liberials-win-canada
Will Liberials Win Canada?
null
1,745,893,078,365
1,745,893,100,501
1,745,893,100,501
YES
0.975117
526
6NqdIERudl
will-peternjeim-actually-leave-mani
Will @PeterNjeim actually leave Manifold?
null
1,745,893,015,158
1,746,121,816,508
1,746,121,816,508
NO
0.01
959.88663
qlP60nQSpg
poilievre-resigns-as-cpc-leader-by
Poilievre resigns as CPC leader by end of May?
null
1,745,891,792,372
1,748,735,940,000
1,748,782,646,630
NO
0.01
43,401.829678
gOSUl9sqz9
this-question-will-resolve-yes-or-n
This question will resolve Yes or No on May 1, 2025. (read description)
null
1,745,883,705,869
1,746,143,940,000
1,746,159,837,631
NO
0.51
39.161486
5RI2cIg5LC
will-alibaba-release-qwen-3-by-the
Will Alibaba release Qwen 3 by the end of April 2025?
null
1,745,859,596,296
1,745,878,613,048
1,745,878,613,048
YES
0.945339
612.332379
SnluPO9d2E
was-a-rare-atmospheric-phenomenon-b
Was a 'rare atmospheric phenomenon' behind the Spanish power blackout?
null
1,745,856,128,875
1,748,728,740,000
1,748,785,340,923
NO
0.15623
733.378583
0gNAAhOpPS
jagmeet-singh-announces-resignation
Jagmeet Singh announces resignation as NDP leader before October 18, 2025
null
1,745,853,450,131
1,745,901,694,736
1,745,901,694,736
YES
0.925352
308.827621
qS2gSy6QIC
will-min-timberwolves-blow-a-31-ser
Will MIN Timberwolves blow a 3-1 series lead against LA Lakers?
null
1,745,847,741,408
1,746,087,359,677
1,746,087,359,677
NO
0.01
9,827.142523
QpECCPPgtP
will-the-2025-european-power-outage
Will the 2025 European power outage be attributed to sabotage by May 25, 2025?
null
1,745,847,460,457
1,748,170,837,342
1,748,170,837,342
NO
0.036766
733.734232
N9LNzCNOCq
will-the-death-toll-from-the-bandar
Will the death toll from the Bandar Abbas port explosion exceed 50 by May 15, 2025?
null
1,745,842,881,756
1,745,856,182,877
1,745,856,182,877
YES
0.609837
25.021199
ycgntI2zln
power-restored-to-portugal-on-april
Power restored to Portugal on April 28th?
null
1,745,840,921,839
1,745,884,800,000
1,745,906,112,638
YES
0.808595
1,559.615648
PqZscRN66h
gpt5-by-april-end
GPT-5 by April end?
null
1,745,828,836,414
1,745,998,038,586
1,745,998,038,586
NO
0.01
1,876.589265
y6LtqUuyup
is-rejecting-mit-be-worth-while-if
Is Rejecting MIT be worth while if I go to comunity college to save cost?
null
1,745,820,414,146
1,746,056,751,478
1,746,056,751,478
YES
0.251394
175.433468
NAcqsd5562
will-i-reject-t20s-mit-stanford-har
Will I reject T20's + MIT + Stanford + Harvard & IVY's? GOT into most IVY's, MIT, HPSYM, T20's for CS?
null
1,745,809,630,160
1,746,057,237,774
1,746,057,237,774
YES
0.958091
440
zLNhR6CEhO
number-of-games-in-the-2025-nba-fin
Number of games in the 2025 NBA Finals series
null
1,745,808,213,593
1,749,091,320,000
1,749,531,358,780
NO
0.124223
487.73421
tC6U60RnQg
will-jwen-reach-toc-semis
Will JWen Reach TOC Semis?
null
1,745,807,066,419
1,745,868,363,720
1,745,868,363,720
YES
0.99
3,118.521831
2N58dptSdQ
will-the-next-pope-be-one-of-these
Will the next Pope be one of these 4 individuals? (See description)
null
1,745,797,048,868
1,746,725,331,057
1,746,725,331,057
NO
0.01
21,038.015675
uySg6tC8AS
cavaliers-or-heat-win
Cavaliers or Heat win?
null
1,745,792,699,049
1,745,879,040,000
1,745,944,372,555
YES
0.639545
36
0UZPItuUE8
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-lhpQIphQq6
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 78 and 79?
null
1,745,781,256,654
1,746,978,616,691
1,746,978,621,424
NO
0.089528
2,189
hOgqssd65I
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-NORgNls9s5
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1148 and 1149?
null
1,745,781,221,669
1,746,978,656,620
1,746,978,664,971
YES
0.442595
1,721
6hNsIgcpts
von-der-leyen-meets-with-trump-befo
Von der Leyen meets with Trump before July 1?
null
1,745,772,439,721
1,751,327,940,000
1,751,369,845,052
NO
0.014391
8,019.247241
288upNsg2C
will-gwern-attend-manifest-2025
Will Gwern attend Manifest 2025?
null
1,745,772,227,057
1,749,253,507,403
1,749,253,507,403
YES
0.99
1,232.465152
APz0zNNudO
will-i-switch-to-cursor-from-phpsto
Will I switch to Cursor from PHPStorm by June 2025
null
1,745,771,893,739
1,748,792,880,000
1,748,798,541,306
NO
0.476828
74.663678
pg9czOC5Lc
next-pope-is-liberal
Next Pope is liberal?
null
1,745,753,193,427
1,746,975,927,399
1,746,975,927,399
NO
0.327518
1,711.222357
gzugN292RN
next-pope-has-a-diacritic-in-their
Next Pope has a diacritic in their name?
null
1,745,753,130,568
1,746,975,919,145
1,746,975,919,145
NO
0.01
1,875.29519
sI2sSI89cz
pope-francis-reelected-for-a-second
Pope Francis re-elected for a second term?
null
1,745,752,326,083
1,746,975,951,530
1,746,975,951,530
NO
0.01
932.780121
859C9QnuC0
pope-francis-comes-out-as-gay
Pope Francis comes out as gay?
null
1,745,752,175,100
1,747,085,892,496
1,747,085,892,496
NO
0.01
1,941.70156
yRuCU9zhld
daily-coinflip-60c6QNUqsq
Daily coinflip
null
1,745,739,533,910
1,745,899,140,000
1,745,904,203,361
NO
0.51
2,267.030294
IRnQcntIhd
finland-qualifies-for-eurovision-20
Finland qualifies for Eurovision 2025 final?
null
1,745,738,580,372
1,747,345,165,287
1,747,345,179,467
YES
0.99
1,790.169979
RnqCnclpU5
will-my-net-worth-be-above-m35000-i
Will my net worth be above Ṁ35,000 in a week?
null
1,745,716,672,590
1,746,320,400,000
1,746,320,408,761
YES
0.99
1,030.45301
nythuZIs5N
resolves-so-that-my-followers-gain
Resolves so that my followers gain the most mana
null
1,745,714,069,301
1,746,331,140,000
1,746,331,542,775
NO
0.969682
801.891042
IEhQOI68St
bitcoin-hits-90k-before-100k
Bitcoin hits $90k before $100k?
null
1,745,702,358,668
1,746,750,040,267
1,746,750,040,267
NO
0.011027
18,267.382929
ChCRLNdQ0c
will-one-of-the-next-10-blacks-be-p
Will one of the next 10 blacks be Pope?
null
1,745,701,165,783
1,746,975,975,771
1,746,975,975,771
NO
0.007917
1,572.802562
2Z08O8pNyu
am-i-alien
am i alien
null
1,745,692,226,826
1,745,692,326,663
1,745,692,326,663
YES
0.590164
20
gP62zSsCgd
will-i-complete-my-task-today
will i complete my task today
null
1,745,689,398,015
1,745,690,145,606
1,745,690,145,606
YES
0.590164
20
C209LPAtgt
will-manifold-fix-the-explore-feed
Will Manifold fix the explore feed jumping back to the top after closing a market? (In 2025)
null
1,745,688,320,492
1,746,292,929,919
1,746,292,929,919
YES
0.850137
199.422445
yyRzg2cE9q
x-user-chris-posts-a-chickadee-or-c
x user Chris posts a chickadee OR cardinal on Monday 4/28/25
null
1,745,686,861,918
1,745,938,407,044
1,745,938,407,044
NO
0.423776
80
CSuy9ACNdA
will-the-next-pope-be
Will the next Pope be?
null
1,745,685,691,146
1,746,975,960,188
1,746,975,960,188
YES
0.988293
1,155.819669
6SsQp2A0QR
lego-approves-turing-machine-idea
Lego approves "Turing Machine" idea?
null
1,745,663,769,924
1,751,469,903,307
1,751,469,903,307
NO
0.278938
372.876124
p8syQQCOus
pope-francis-resurrected-from-the-d
Pope Francis resurrected from the dead by May?
null
1,745,644,255,463
1,746,057,540,000
1,746,114,111,117
NO
0.004362
2,044.657984
z2tcNldUth
will-the-pope-win-the-2025-canadian
Will the Pope win the 2025 Canadian Federal Election?
null
1,745,644,139,122
1,745,967,540,000
1,745,974,114,576
NO
0.001119
1,322.359011
lIq2ZAI829
what-is-my-name-Qu5nAL5EU8
what is my name
null
1,745,642,295,122
1,745,689,182,109
1,745,689,182,109
YES
0.514381
37
0lO0sC8pPu
pierre-polievre-loses-his-seat-in-t
Pierre Polievre loses his seat in the election?
null
1,745,633,074,415
1,746,034,053,513
1,746,034,053,513
YES
0.970218
1,804.020778
qCZRtpPUgn
will-i-get-a-5-on-my-ap-calculus-bc
Will I get a 5 on my AP Calculus BC exam?
null
1,745,632,078,420
1,751,667,300,000
1,751,900,345,321
YES
0.976879
9,757.342718
0SOcSS8Uuz
bitcoin-above-95k-on-may-2
Bitcoin above $95K on May 2?
null
1,745,622,243,380
1,746,217,804,239
1,746,217,804,239
YES
0.990409
41,704.894678
UAZNEcLpN8
will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-april
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April?
null
1,745,600,535,693
1,746,072,000,000
1,746,073,769,521
NO
0.009349
48,145.342323
20SpRUtAcR
will-the-ai-2027-2025-predictions-c
Will the 'AI 2027' 2025 Predictions Come True?
null
1,745,599,364,750
1,745,673,504,225
1,745,673,504,225
YES
0.742796
265.551085
S8d5cACSgp
cdu-and-spd-disagreement-triggers-n
CDU and SPD disagreement triggers new German elections, what means that Merz will not be further chancellor?
null
1,745,596,608,768
1,746,541,206,321
1,746,541,206,321
NO
0.049304
1,103.899021
2hpyCnU8LN
india-conducts-limited-military-air
India conducts limited military airstrikes inside Pakistan before May 5, 2025
null
1,745,593,625,544
1,746,489,540,000
1,746,489,693,878
NO
0.033431
15,178.4689
lgO29cUEzt
will-the-insured-mana-fund-have-100
Will the Insured Mana Fund have 10000+ shares outstanding by EOY 2028?
null
1,745,586,235,779
1,746,680,818,051
1,746,680,818,051
YES
0.989613
958.100469
qRnnIIsZOO
will-modiji-take-revenge-by-this-mo-QqzzLCsRcN
Will Modiji take revenge by this month end or next month?
null
1,745,570,340,011
1,745,570,421,642
1,745,570,421,642
YES
0.452489
10
pP6PghsQOU
will-i-study-for-2-hours-per-day-un
Will I study for 2 hours per day until May?
null
1,745,568,967,906
1,746,017,961,741
1,746,017,961,741
YES
0.952101
6,504.067085
I5cRlRzpAz
daily-coinflip-06LnUE5tuc
Daily coinflip
null
1,745,558,251,191
1,745,726,340,000
1,745,739,517,905
YES
0.5
1,386.929724
ZglPqczSUl
will-taiwanese-president-lai-chingt
Will Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te attend the inauguration mass of the next Pope?
null
1,745,553,878,633
1,747,612,740,000
1,747,613,695,713
NO
0.01
1,678.179817
9dqsUnhsLz
i-stop-being-a-fucking-idiot-by-eoy
I stop being a fucking idiot by EOY2025?
null
1,745,548,288,063
1,745,548,296,175
1,745,548,296,175
NO
0.5
0
yUsCEtZdUq
will-nico-robin-do-well-next-chapte
Will Nico robin do well next chapter 1147
null
1,745,548,006,887
1,745,891,761,729
1,745,891,761,729
YES
0.750753
120
u9NE5qnccz
will-the-tontine-surviving-player-c-EN8nZCpRhu
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 178 (1/40) or less as of 2025-6-1?
null
1,745,544,074,092
1,746,097,107,751
1,746,097,107,751
YES
0.871134
160
9gROU6cPIl
will-brooklyn-mirage-be-open-in-tim
Will Brooklyn Mirage be open in time for Sara Landry on May 1st
null
1,745,539,150,342
1,746,147,754,235
1,746,147,754,235
NO
0.01
9,724.404768
g2hAQU9ldt
will-i-leave-my-house-within-30min
Will I leave my house within 30min after waking up during the next week?
null
1,745,538,818,940
1,745,776,839,577
1,745,776,846,843
NO
0.01813
2,497.827892