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026dluCPOy | at-8-pm-et-on-the-12th-will-the-mar | “At 8 PM ET on the 12th, will the market’s assessed probability (in %) be an even number?” | null | 1,736,633,871,407 | 1,736,640,710,724 | 1,736,640,710,724 | YES | 0.659925 | 175.997471 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QznzPgInp5 | will-alexander-vindman-sue-elon-mus | Will Alexander Vindman sue Elon Musk for defamation by the end of May 2025? | null | 1,733,035,241,144 | 1,748,750,340,000 | 1,748,751,439,934 | NO | 0.01 | 956.629207 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
6RylyUlCSg | will-i-get-honorable-mention-on-usa | Will I get Honorable Mention on USAJMO 2025? | null | 1,741,906,214,023 | 1,742,367,540,000 | 1,745,597,850,215 | YES | 0.692308 | 50 | Sports | Individual Sports |
90Olqqu2gz | will-ishiba-be-prime-minister-of-ja | Will Ishiba be Prime Minister of Japan by the End of Golden Week 2025? | null | 1,732,717,698,907 | 1,746,543,540,000 | 1,746,831,672,321 | YES | 0.99 | 2,165.620993 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
L6d5utRls9 | will-a-chinese-ai-developer-announc | Will a Chinese AI developer announce a model rivaling o3 performance by February 2025? | null | 1,734,731,247,091 | 1,738,483,140,000 | 1,738,483,541,299 | NO | 0.01 | 2,928.069067 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
F5I6QSkRRZtL4Blo6zxG | will-there-be-a-ussaudi-arabia-join | Will there be a US-Saudi Arabia joint defense bill in 2024? | null | 1,714,885,736,811 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,735,805,472,578 | NO | 0.030786 | 498 | Geopolitics | International Relations |
TZZPbIdWv2Jq1m8ReCWm | will-there-are-no-coherence-theorem | Will "There are no coherence theorems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,722,334,112 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,457,814 | NO | 0.235078 | 105 | Technology | Computing & Software |
2af0dzfwmw | will-nvidia-nvda-end-33-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 3/3 at or above $333 USD per share? | null | 1,719,151,536,489 | 1,741,064,340,000 | 1,741,316,667,877 | NO | 0.01 | 2,206.710066 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
qc5Ngul5Ll | clean-swiftie-special-will-the-chie | ["Clean" Swiftie Special] Will the Chiefs win all four quarters? | null | 1,738,968,289,215 | 1,739,143,740,000 | 1,739,150,271,900 | NO | 0.051533 | 13,628.005179 | Sports | Professional Sports |
2LHbwe1tWYALUURjszm8 | will-google-alphabet-announce-plans | Will Google (Alphabet) announce plans to acquire Hubspot in 2024? | null | 1,715,262,258,074 | 1,735,709,313,912 | 1,735,709,313,912 | NO | 0.059247 | 494.901465 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
QgZCLZZQtl | merab-dvalishvili-submits-sean-omal | Merab Dvalishvili submits Sean O’Malley at UFC 316? | null | 1,748,296,702,263 | 1,749,364,895,560 | 1,749,364,895,560 | YES | 0.99 | 1,272.006264 | Sports | Individual Sports |
LsOCppQn8U | this-market-resolves-to-min5x-100-w | This market resolves to min(5x, 100)%, where x is the number of traders | null | 1,733,870,882,393 | 1,735,878,461,888 | 1,735,878,461,888 | YES | 0.973022 | 1,276.349324 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
l8NP9t6Agh | will-iran-use-iraq-to-stage-an-atta | Will Iran use Iraq to stage an attack on Israel before the end of 2024? | null | 1,730,433,624,850 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,720,963,428 | NO | 0.034372 | 4,658.984343 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
0O9NCNSUpC | will-o4mini-beat-o3-in-any-benchmar | Will o4-mini beat o3 in any benchmark reported by OpenAI? | null | 1,744,817,428,288 | 1,744,829,553,918 | 1,744,829,553,918 | YES | 0.99 | 939.236022 | Technology | Computing & Software |
8LP0ll2Uz5 | will-houthis-escalate-their-activit | Will houthis 🇾🇪 escalate their activities again before EOY 2025? | null | 1,739,358,608,099 | 1,746,725,414,369 | 1,747,164,819,388 | YES | 0.984323 | 1,440.951731 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
02n9uqqCSl | will-tulsi-gabbard-be-confirmed-as | Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Intelligence Director? | null | 1,731,559,221,810 | 1,739,389,994,725 | 1,739,389,994,725 | YES | 0.991063 | 503,513.798752 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
9zc8clu8IR | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-unIhzZnLC6 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 14 than it closed on Mar 13? | null | 1,741,956,222,866 | 1,741,983,483,828 | 1,741,983,483,828 | YES | 0.99 | 9,633.409763 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
90IL6q6tyh | david-kisses-someone-while-visiting | David kisses someone while visiting the Bay? | null | 1,743,192,449,924 | 1,744,329,540,000 | 1,744,556,685,698 | NO | 0.189606 | 1,590.762176 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
ha8siwsis8 | will-michel-barnier-be-the-primer-m | Will Michel Barnier be the prime minister of France on Jan 1st 2025? | null | 1,725,536,609,166 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,735,801,143,370 | NO | 0.01 | 60,710.597818 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
y69L5u9dzz | will-i-obtain-a-switch-2-before-the | Will I obtain a Switch 2 before the end of the year? | null | 1,748,549,453,676 | 1,751,390,359,976 | 1,751,390,359,976 | YES | 0.964553 | 686.856871 | Gaming | Gaming |
kuqzmhm88u | if-trump-wins-will-harris-publicly | If Trump wins, will Harris publicly deny the official 2024 election results? | null | 1,723,134,410,625 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,738,480,628,990 | NO | 0.011411 | 1,276 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
zlhA9A6n2S | daily-coinflip-EcL2pI0EP2 | Daily coinflip | null | 1,747,113,107,731 | 1,747,281,540,000 | 1,747,291,007,876 | YES | 0.5 | 2,824.696325 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
cU95y5Ot2L | will-eric-weinstein-be-appointed-to | Will Eric Weinstein be appointed to any cabinet or federal position by Trump's administration by the end of Feb 2025? | null | 1,731,536,511,571 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,805,261,500 | NO | 0.01 | 906.987433 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
Z8uszP99nn | will-cnn-or-foxnews-report-hamas-re | Will cnn or foxnews report "Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost" (Blinken)? | null | 1,737,051,276,339 | 1,737,428,001,412 | 1,737,428,001,412 | YES | 0.36 | 70 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
5uvzuytwcn | will-ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up | Will "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,947,613,863 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,443,852 | NO | 0.09 | 591.788712 | Books & Literature | Books & Literature |
lsplIEPgdn | will-o3-openai-model-be-released-be | Will o3 (OpenAI model) be released before March 2025? | null | 1,738,120,100,741 | 1,740,891,540,000 | 1,740,965,836,933 | NO | 0.02257 | 23,133.470456 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
RlIy5CN29Z | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-QR0UyPOhyA | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 189 and 190? | null | 1,735,678,113,878 | 1,736,280,971,205 | 1,736,280,975,476 | NO | 0.386458 | 260 | ENTERTAINMENT | Movies & Television |
g555cQquNc | will-the-assassin-of-the-minnesota-RS2hugEydg | Will the assassin of the Minnesota lawmakers be apprehended alive? | null | 1,749,914,909,572 | 1,750,620,464,809 | 1,750,620,464,809 | YES | 0.991909 | 1,474.228375 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
sR5qSZQ6pI | blueskys-daily-active-us-users-exce | Bluesky's daily active users exceed 25% of X's daily active users by June 2025 | null | 1,733,971,728,165 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,788,770,781 | NO | 0.06169 | 290 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
u48ZpYkDH1JZRhBRfWzs | will-cheese-ball-man-return-in-2024 | Will Cheese Ball Man return in 2024? | null | 1,715,025,731,938 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,739,315,198,007 | YES | 0.917384 | 259.236661 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
c4vt1i7rnp | will-rfk-be-allowed-to-participate | Will RFK be allowed to participate in any presidential debate alongside Trump or Harris? (2024) | null | 1,721,776,560,497 | 1,735,793,940,000 | 1,735,795,202,026 | NO | 0.00906 | 1,413.835087 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
AzgIhs665d | wip-will-the-fertility-crisis-becom | [WIP] Will the fertility crisis become an issue for blue tribe before July? | null | 1,746,206,211,958 | 1,751,380,440,000 | 1,751,980,667,806 | NO | 0.021488 | 15,541.759283 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
hSIC9E6ung | will-i-go-to-the-gym-twice-a-week-u | Will I go to the gym twice a week until July? | null | 1,747,907,214,504 | 1,749,451,716,185 | 1,749,451,716,185 | NO | 0.606264 | 530.790924 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
SA62qIPEzR | i-score-5-on-the-ap-physics-1-exam | I score 5 on the AP Physics 1 exam in May 2025 | null | 1,748,310,336,036 | 1,748,310,384,782 | 1,748,310,384,782 | YES | 0.735294 | 110 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
tShQ8R2QUn | will-elon-musk-buy-hasbro-within-6 | Will Elon Musk buy Hasbro within 6 months? | null | 1,732,812,655,425 | 1,748,451,540,000 | 1,748,520,292,624 | NO | 0.01 | 22,647.888898 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
1qriku6ak2 | will-a-la-liga-regular-season-match-4e6bn123bi | Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year? | null | 1,723,817,397,865 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,735,772,522,072 | NO | 0.01 | 10,740.152286 | Sports | Professional Sports |
qIuUAp0y6p | i-resolve-this-market-by-may-31-202 | I resolve this market by May 31, 2025 | null | 1,746,227,852,573 | 1,746,227,992,114 | 1,746,227,992,114 | YES | 0.755446 | 1,320 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
9Lp0NzNAph | scott-alexander-debates-usaid-at-ma | Scott Alexander debates USAID at Manifest? | null | 1,748,528,462,032 | 1,749,434,400,000 | 1,749,611,517,768 | NO | 0.134813 | 2,615.768082 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
v1rg6i4i2k | will-women-will-be-having-more-sex | Will women will be having more sex with robots than men by 2025? | null | 1,719,384,080,698 | 1,735,694,026,789 | 1,735,694,026,789 | NO | 0.01 | 899.573625 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
RLROucAZIl | us-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-th | US imposes additional tariffs on third countries in response to China trade war by May 9, 2025 | null | 1,744,200,782,410 | 1,744,761,540,000 | 1,744,788,025,434 | NO | 0.222753 | 413.807427 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
IU2yZ6QyqL | will-i-implement-my-ai-markets-prof | Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work? | null | 1,735,943,084,118 | 1,751,342,340,000 | 1,751,390,634,120 | NO | 0.125722 | 2,051.175965 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
4aaszsmzp2 | will-there-be-credible-evidence-tha-ahcvpo9l6p | Will there be credible evidence that they UK could have unilaterally approved used of Storm Shadow missiles in Russia? | null | 1,723,671,261,921 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,351,683,553 | NO | 0.58841 | 2,953.568297 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
OQq9ZdL80U | ncaa-basketball-2025-will-duke-flor | NCAA Basketball 2025: Will Duke, Florida, AND Alabama all win their games on 3/14? | null | 1,741,957,476,386 | 1,742,011,681,572 | 1,742,011,681,572 | YES | 0.99 | 11,907.867344 | Sports | Team Sports |
5CPR62ysCq | there-will-be-more-than-a-25-increa | There will be more than a 25% increase in VR users as a result of this Christmas cycle. | null | 1,735,083,617,076 | 1,740,902,340,000 | 1,741,453,035,726 | NO | 0.090648 | 2,704.171314 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
sLsUS0c9NQ | will-the-supreme-court-grant-cert-i-yP8UCqyyRq | Will the Supreme Court grant cert in Perez v. United States? | null | 1,740,596,216,401 | 1,743,487,140,000 | 1,743,515,872,712 | NO | 0.169106 | 1,257 | Politics | Government Structure |
XqOAM8EVhiMLjXad9A18 | will-apples-market-cap-exceed-micro | Will Apple’s Market Cap Exceed Microsoft’s at the End of 2024? | null | 1,715,999,836,143 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,737,061,346 | YES | 0.986633 | 21,074.649068 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
hPqR8lgqLq | trump-approval-rating-450-or-higher | Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th? | null | 1,735,971,473,520 | 1,740,124,740,000 | 1,740,183,988,489 | YES | 0.99 | 98,342.337594 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
sVlJtVqYfXAjnZKjDY4O | nfl-week-17-dec-28-2024-will-the-wa | NFL Week 17 (Dec 28 2024): Will the Washington Commanders (home) beat the Atlanta Falcons (away)? | null | 1,715,834,666,707 | 1,735,621,200,000 | 1,737,477,040,099 | YES | 0.997391 | 3,873.773317 | Sports | Professional Sports |
qZRLLPOhnl | is-manus-another-deepseek-moment | Is Manus another "DeepSeek moment"? | null | 1,741,438,414,907 | 1,746,676,740,000 | 1,746,699,913,382 | NO | 0.016619 | 47,050.271151 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
yS6NqpLCPu | any-of-eu-uk-or-us-remove-hts-from | Any of EU, UK, or US remove HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) from terrorist list by December 31, 2024 | null | 1,733,750,288,282 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,735,728,001,128 | NO | 0.128194 | 322 | Geopolitics | International Relations |
SqLCNO6yQq | will-the-us-impose-200-tariffs-on-e-UZRg90d0uO | Will the US impose 200%+ tariffs on european alcohol imports by the end of April 2025? | null | 1,743,015,986,585 | 1,746,143,940,000 | 1,746,148,703,178 | NO | 0.013243 | 1,078.717367 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
bmTSCtvB3jMFai8LA636 | will-the-m4based-macbook-macbook-ai | Will the M4-based MacBook / MacBook Air have an OLED screen option? | null | 1,715,102,699,015 | 1,741,187,392,635 | 1,741,187,392,635 | NO | 0.036592 | 797.508894 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
2SPL9h0l2Z | t-coronae-borealis-erupts-as-a-nova | T Coronae Borealis erupts as a nova on March 27th? | null | 1,743,060,421,646 | 1,743,119,940,000 | 1,743,575,269,288 | NO | 0.070561 | 346 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
zrkuwsa29h | will-justice-thomas-be-impeached-by | Will Justice Thomas be impeached by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,651,817,391 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,837,919 | NO | 0.027181 | 767.322018 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
6zIRuUZcLp | will-blc1-be-confirmed-as-alien-tec | Will BLC-1 be confirmed as alien technology before 2025? | null | 1,730,135,067,645 | 1,735,703,940,000 | 1,735,725,560,476 | NO | 0.031567 | 13,577.390152 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
d8AZQQCNLt | will-the-supreme-court-permit-the-f | Will the Supreme Court permit the firing of Hampton Dellinger by the Trump Administration? | null | 1,739,754,825,607 | 1,741,373,303,466 | 1,741,373,303,466 | YES | 0.871134 | 598.914224 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
dhQ0lq6Sl0 | will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-EypsdNA59A | Will I play magic the gathering this week? | null | 1,743,178,367,605 | 1,744,042,320,000 | 1,744,064,269,950 | NO | 0.422318 | 45 | Entertainment | Gaming |
qp2l2sUOs9 | will-mark-carney-be-the-prime-minis | Will Mark Carney be the Prime Minister after the election in Canada? | null | 1,744,137,453,241 | 1,745,881,200,000 | 1,745,904,765,905 | YES | 0.838671 | 80,265.765385 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
AsOchl6hL8 | number-of-applicants-for-the-300-fe | Number of applicants for the $300 Fermi Model Competition exceeds 10 by February 16th, 2025 | null | 1,738,617,297,038 | 1,739,824,045,167 | 1,739,824,045,167 | NO | 0.562933 | 437.605673 | Sports | Individual Sports |
n5e52r1m3o | will-i-release-my-first-original-mu | Will I release my first original musical track or cover video this year? | null | 1,721,329,683,800 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,372,667,865 | NO | 0.16487 | 371.600656 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
n925az9t4i | pavel-durov-leaves-france-in-2024--cash | Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? | null | 1,729,699,702,460 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,761,707,008 | NO | 0.010985 | 1,481.860909 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
UpNRSZPgLp | will-vucic-flee-like-assad | Will Vučić flee like Assad? | null | 1,733,951,696,377 | 1,751,362,110,587 | 1,751,362,110,587 | NO | 0.01 | 1,120.676403 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
R80stq0EO9 | china-hasalready-had-access-to-gpt4 | China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025 | null | 1,733,321,841,311 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,736,441,917,698 | NO | 0.051153 | 3,567.127788 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
fy57vk101l | will-cyber-monday-sales-in-2024-exc | Will cyber Monday sales in 2024 exceed 2023’s | null | 1,724,272,362,507 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,344,262 | YES | 0.717182 | 60 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
x3t4y1cd05 | will-beff-jezos-renounce-eacc-by-eo | Will Beff Jezos renounce e/acc by EOY? | null | 1,719,759,071,374 | 1,735,642,740,000 | 1,735,824,871,631 | NO | 0.072829 | 324.469178 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
6hSlnszqOO | will-o3-pro-be-released-before-apri | Will o3 pro be released before April? | null | 1,738,881,404,712 | 1,743,544,740,000 | 1,743,551,043,886 | NO | 0.01 | 2,217.932251 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
AIPuC000Sp | will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-nInLA0gh28 | Will I play magic the gathering this week? | null | 1,739,311,435,543 | 1,739,779,140,000 | 1,739,801,850,415 | NO | 0.590342 | 45 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
I9lzNuRzcO | bitcoin-hits-110000-on-coinbase-bef | Bitcoin hits $110,000 on Coinbase before June 30 UTC? | null | 1,750,748,761,043 | 1,751,269,378,012 | 1,751,269,378,012 | NO | 0.01 | 2,573.326164 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
7c30o25ncd | will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi | Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,719,255,171,702 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,987,411 | NO | 0.15 | 12.040495 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
ilakkqoxmw | will-a-major-ai-lab-release-a-model | Will a major AI lab release a model that does search (e.g monte carlo tree search) at inference-time by 2025? | null | 1,722,802,141,060 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,757,884,880 | YES | 0.92738 | 315 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
weg2cijsi1 | will-lukashenko-win-the-presidentia | Will Lukashenko win the presidential elections in Belarus in 2025? | null | 1,727,554,801,318 | 1,738,525,210,029 | 1,738,584,691,265 | YES | 0.955902 | 570.783192 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
b7vh46quna | will-dr-disrespect-be-livestreaming | Will Dr Disrespect be livestreaming on Youtube or Kick six months from now? | null | 1,722,471,557,679 | 1,738,386,625,208 | 1,738,386,625,208 | YES | 0.82 | 654.763871 | Entertainment | Gaming |
96Ch09h5sp | will-joe-biden-pardon-henry-cuellar | Will Joe Biden pardon Henry Cuellar? | null | 1,730,966,527,677 | 1,737,514,964,847 | 1,737,514,964,847 | NO | 0.01 | 9,956.396821 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
SnluPO9d2E | was-a-rare-atmospheric-phenomenon-b | Was a 'rare atmospheric phenomenon' behind the Spanish power blackout? | null | 1,745,856,128,875 | 1,748,728,740,000 | 1,748,785,340,923 | NO | 0.15623 | 733.378583 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
QFoPicqb0FJUU1es3Eho | will-cosmopolitan-values-dont-come | Will "Cosmopolitan values don't come free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,849,934,735 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,461,453 | NO | 0.100024 | 457 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
lEutZOy8cI | will-this-market-have-less-than-25 | Will this market have less than 25 participants on close (in one day)? | null | 1,742,272,073,141 | 1,742,443,140,000 | 1,742,454,697,305 | YES | 0.899575 | 371.129861 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
5LcNdNIQRE | will-the-rams-trade-matthew-staffor | Will the Rams trade Matthew Stafford by May 7, 2025? | null | 1,739,569,111,963 | 1,746,763,140,000 | 1,746,790,987,595 | NO | 0.01 | 9,405.288369 | Sports | Professional Sports |
h8PNpI5q0p | will-my-reddit-post-manifold-tips-a | Will my reddit post "Manifold Tips and Tricks" get > 100 karma? | null | 1,731,867,036,440 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,759,751,007 | NO | 0.012005 | 8,332.387469 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
Z0luy6nsQS | bitcoin-120k-by-q1-2025 | Bitcoin $120K by Q1 2025? | null | 1,732,002,331,002 | 1,743,490,740,000 | 1,743,492,725,610 | NO | 0.01 | 80,595.624688 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
yqUdsllRAA | ilia-topuria-knocks-out-charles-oli | Ilia Topuria knocks out Charles Oliveira? | null | 1,748,296,495,607 | 1,751,061,180,000 | 1,751,204,844,147 | YES | 0.614453 | 298.176372 | Sports | Individual Sports |
nPcRZU0P5N | will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-photogr | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before May 1st, 2025? | null | 1,741,039,999,187 | 1,746,169,140,000 | 1,746,393,063,555 | NO | 0.01 | 484,887.234499 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
3pz9ldxhye | will-i-saw-the-tv-glow-be-nominated | Will I Saw the TV Glow be nominated for any of the six major awards at the 97th Academy Awards? | null | 1,724,788,443,140 | 1,737,641,173,018 | 1,737,641,173,018 | NO | 0.019469 | 6,129 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
hthh92tQcn | will-vwrp-reach-all-time-high-this | Will VWRP reach all time high this month? | null | 1,747,235,318,156 | 1,748,649,540,000 | 1,748,679,391,127 | NO | 0.01 | 899.909006 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QH8XyTxB3PJGTofBjSCx | will-my-technooptimism-by-vitalik-b | Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,218,122,745 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,586,793 | NO | 0.099408 | 400 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
yUsCEtZdUq | will-nico-robin-do-well-next-chapte | Will Nico robin do well next chapter 1147 | null | 1,745,548,006,887 | 1,745,891,761,729 | 1,745,891,761,729 | YES | 0.750753 | 120 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
8P0PPPEgh6 | will-i-send-m2000-by-market-close | Will I send ≥Ṁ2000 by market close? | null | 1,751,136,078,709 | 1,751,734,740,000 | 1,751,904,901,230 | NO | 0.210327 | 114.014986 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
jdilycfsoh | will-will-the-growing-deer-prion-ep | Will "Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,024,739,575 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,976,239 | NO | 0.435522 | 2,361.147744 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
lQLICcZCSy | will-usamts-determine-all-aime-qual | Will USAMTS determine all AIME qualifiers through USAMTS before February? | null | 1,736,730,621,807 | 1,738,348,140,000 | 1,738,361,081,408 | YES | 0.74 | 467.748209 | Sports | Individual Sports |
4nlpu019vj | will-trump-publicly-mention-agi-or | Will Trump publicly mention AGI or Superintelligence before 2025? | null | 1,727,289,168,320 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,724,192,868 | NO | 0.035663 | 6,569.198742 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
QZONLUc8yu | will-tina-show-up-on-time-to-krishn | Will Tina show up on time to Krishna? | null | 1,744,987,629,845 | 1,744,990,309,454 | 1,744,990,309,454 | NO | 0.448414 | 30 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
znhERctQyl | will-alexander-volkanovski-defeat-d | Will Alexander Volkanovski defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 314? | null | 1,740,506,763,471 | 1,744,578,959,175 | 1,744,578,959,175 | YES | 0.99 | 67,517.633806 | Sports | Individual Sports |
IhkhUaldypVIXsQ4Bzmy | will-if-interpretability-research-g | Will "If interpretability research goes well, it ma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,220,412,082 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,380,729 | NO | 0.14 | 0 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
8Cuc20RL5y | greta-thunberg-deported-from-israel | Greta Thunberg deported from Israel before June 16, 2025 | null | 1,749,468,088,007 | 1,749,542,678,936 | 1,749,542,678,936 | YES | 0.989613 | 1,246.926522 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
cdhtuAnnU0 | senator-mike-lee-resigns-before-jul | Senator Mike Lee resigns before July? | null | 1,750,030,145,350 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,330,038,302 | NO | 0.010329 | 1,041.138963 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NlggEy5AyC | will-proof-team-top-11-at-mathcount | will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state | null | 1,740,938,989,938 | 1,742,681,505,952 | 1,742,681,505,952 | YES | 0.99 | 1,036.311021 | Sports | Team Sports |
8pNIghgSPu | bitcoin-above-95k-on-may-10 | Bitcoin above $95K on May 10? | null | 1,746,482,088,451 | 1,746,913,268,167 | 1,746,913,268,167 | YES | 0.992794 | 26,160.543039 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
U06h5Ey06Z | will-jayden-daniels-win-rookie-of-t | Will Jayden Daniels win Rookie of the Year? | null | 1,736,705,780,563 | 1,738,902,924,458 | 1,738,902,924,458 | YES | 0.99 | 2,016.967175 | Sports | Professional Sports |
OnnI5l0sSq | real-madrid-win-against-alaves | Real Madrid win against Alavés? | null | 1,744,510,145,955 | 1,744,562,622,895 | 1,744,562,622,895 | YES | 0.822143 | 115 | Sports | Professional Sports |
v5pf2uahu8 | will-a-significant-new-format-desig | Will a significant new format designed around cEDH be created by 03/23/25? | null | 1,727,149,340,712 | 1,742,788,740,000 | 1,742,789,973,858 | NO | 0.063435 | 285 | Gaming | Gaming |
r3c29h8106 | will-thailand-formally-join-brics-i | Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024? | null | 1,718,736,171,305 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,857,114,044 | NO | 0.040435 | 7,257.576135 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
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