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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pq2ApnddSd | will-gggong-be-on-a-usaco-platinum | will gg_gong be on a usaco platinum leadeboard this season? | null | 1,739,827,142,699 | 1,743,490,740,000 | 1,744,569,494,139 | NO | 0.114924 | 1,285.130862 | Sports | Individual Sports |
sqc7dzpurw | android-llm-backed-keyboard-availab | Android LLM backed keyboard available by end 2024 | null | 1,725,194,312,452 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,730,658,682 | NO | 0.278432 | 615 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
CEOchdsOpl | in-kyle-pauls-recreation-of-mark-ro | In Kyle Paul's recreation of Mark Rober's test, will Tesla FSD crash into a Looney Toons poster wall in the road? | null | 1,742,308,031,529 | 1,742,565,683,027 | 1,742,565,683,027 | NO | 0.312788 | 144.145067 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
56O0cz8C66 | will-my-car-insurance-premium-incre | Will my car insurance premium increase more than 30%? (After claiming) | null | 1,731,386,339,573 | 1,736,216,134,574 | 1,736,216,134,574 | NO | 0.315101 | 516 | Finance | Personal Finance |
I2UpC6qZ9h | was-brad-garlinghouse-at-the-inaugu | Was Brad Garlinghouse at the inauguration? | null | 1,737,398,034,646 | 1,737,491,046,354 | 1,737,491,046,354 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
0LSNQSpghz | biden-pardons-fauci | Biden pardons Fauci? | null | 1,733,194,003,471 | 1,737,405,402,979 | 1,737,405,402,979 | YES | 0.999882 | 321,633.488791 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
ONSO2p8uz2 | will-iran-hit-israel-within-10-mont | Will Iran hit Israel within 10 months of being attacked by them? | null | 1,738,372,674,947 | 1,741,463,673,486 | 1,741,463,673,486 | NO | 0.156142 | 191.598183 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
hUyR82c0gc | will-feiningforgm-hit-expert-in-1-c-yAcRhn5LhE | Will feining_for_gm hit expert in 1 CF contest | null | 1,747,108,921,034 | 1,748,103,200,112 | 1,748,103,200,112 | NO | 0.675545 | 4,957.176646 | Sports | Individual Sports |
QdtnNAhllI | will-this-market-get-more-traders-t | Will this market get more traders than a random integer between 0 and 99 inclusive? | null | 1,739,234,542,348 | 1,741,838,340,000 | 1,741,893,655,021 | NO | 0.375383 | 2,782.448238 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
YOM6G0pF8H628Wu7lx5M | does-manifold-think-the-covid19-shu | Does Manifold think the Covid-19 shutdown worth it? | null | 1,715,706,504,827 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,735,711,363,457 | YES | 0.946938 | 344.353877 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
qUUy58zSEu | will-270-of-manifold-respondents-ag | Will >= 27.0% of Manifold respondents agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth in the January 2025 poll? | null | 1,737,119,240,345 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,324,563,233 | NO | 0.026775 | 7,903.231669 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
I6t6dhPCys | bitcoin-hits-100k-1-month-into-trum | Bitcoin hits $100k, 1 month into Trump's Second Term | null | 1,733,789,161,206 | 1,738,081,087,926 | 1,738,081,087,926 | YES | 0.99 | 1,583.535992 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QLnqs8OQZz | trump-makes-remote-appearance-at-bi | Trump makes remote appearance at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas? | null | 1,748,422,480,138 | 1,748,473,140,000 | 1,748,528,506,878 | NO | 0.226116 | 85 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
tI9t2CLQyE | will-instagram-stop-sending-me-tren | Will Instagram stop sending me “Trending” notifications in a week? | null | 1,744,998,942,401 | 1,745,689,980,000 | 1,745,782,753,906 | YES | 0.221909 | 1,330.408427 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
hEcLAu9lEu | will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-RC6CZREQRt | Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift during Superbowl LIX? | null | 1,738,274,269,818 | 1,739,159,306,951 | 1,739,159,306,951 | NO | 0.01 | 1,075.062587 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
6EyzL6zEpd | khalil-rountree-beats-jamall-hill-a | Khalil Rountree Beats Jamall Hill at UFC Fight Night in Baku | null | 1,750,495,227,748 | 1,750,547,787,607 | 1,750,547,787,607 | YES | 0.68 | 339.959433 | Sports | Individual Sports |
3uyv5qt9n3 | will-kirill-shevchenko-be-banned-fr | Will Kirill Shevchenko be banned from FIDE for six months or more by the end of 2025? | null | 1,728,934,864,058 | 1,746,982,063,593 | 1,746,982,063,593 | YES | 0.989131 | 8,888.086974 | Sports | Individual Sports |
NldyN2cn5d | who-will-win-the-2025-wisconsin-sta | Will the more liberal/Democratic side win the 2025 Wisconsin state supreme court election? | null | 1,738,441,733,611 | 1,743,564,288,438 | 1,743,564,288,438 | YES | 0.99 | 1,645.428585 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2v8xt9s4nq | will-ana-kasparian-leave-tyt-by-the | Will Ana Kasparian leave TYT by the end of June 2025? | null | 1,727,927,606,590 | 1,751,327,945,556 | 1,751,327,945,556 | NO | 0.01 | 933.839223 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
l096guySPz | will-gpt45-be-able-to-draw-an-accur | Will GPT-4.5 be able to draw an accurate Xbox controller? | null | 1,740,513,955,842 | 1,741,307,412,221 | 1,741,307,412,221 | NO | 0.090189 | 29,562.844839 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
sI2sSI89cz | pope-francis-reelected-for-a-second | Pope Francis re-elected for a second term? | null | 1,745,752,326,083 | 1,746,975,951,530 | 1,746,975,951,530 | NO | 0.01 | 932.780121 | Politics | Government Structure |
9uqzmkegus | will-the-minnesota-timberwolves-win-49dv06ah5a | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more games than the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024-2025 NBA regular season? | null | 1,727,188,100,823 | 1,744,055,690,775 | 1,744,055,690,775 | YES | 0.99 | 11,573.946522 | Sports | Professional Sports |
LI5hO69LEI | trump-admin-official-held-in-contem | Trump admin official held in contempt before end of June? | null | 1,744,831,625,748 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,337,638,058 | NO | 0.024719 | 14,132.167797 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
tN996z8UcN | will-ford-q1-2025-gross-profit-exce | Will Ford Q1, 2025 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's | null | 1,731,412,179,160 | 1,746,734,340,000 | 1,746,768,136,748 | YES | 0.991704 | 1,135.557259 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
ysczPR9su8 | will-wti-crude-hit-100-per-barrel-w | Will WTI crude hit $100 per barrel within the month of February 2025? | null | 1,738,373,537,112 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,741,739,998,059 | NO | 0.010194 | 941.481194 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
yxi24wbw5m | will-davi-alcolumbre-uniaoap-be-ele | Will Davi Alcolumbre (UNIÃO-AP) be elected President of the Brazilian Senate for the 2025-2026 term? | null | 1,720,800,674,342 | 1,738,465,140,000 | 1,738,584,822,661 | YES | 0.948565 | 420 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
SPcyCsg9O2 | aoc-confirmed-pregnant-by-jan-6th | AOC confirmed pregnant by Jan 6th? 👶 🇺🇸 | null | 1,731,440,859,829 | 1,736,137,582,233 | 1,736,137,582,233 | NO | 0.009998 | 361,222.467138 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
SyERNRPh0q | will-i-eat-9-hot-dogs-during-the-cu | Will I eat 9 hot dogs during the cubs game | null | 1,749,832,491,006 | 1,749,846,268,104 | 1,749,846,268,104 | YES | 0.979132 | 2,237.476178 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
9IcLEZSCUR | will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-at-CllZ5nS5c0 | Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 3/31/2025 be 4.5% or higher? | null | 1,736,528,601,293 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,743,509,164,116 | NO | 0.01 | 982.106807 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
dhIpl8N5Rc | will-bitcoin-surpass-110000-by-the-09Zq2As9Aq | Will bitcoin surpass $110,000 by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,739,806,742,636 | 1,743,506,727,899 | 1,743,506,727,899 | NO | 0.01 | 2,902.858351 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
eJaszkCfuFMEEiuKDZPK | will-an-aipiloted-fighter-jet-of-us | Will an AI-piloted Fighter Jet of US origin see combat in Ukraine before March 2025? | null | 1,715,029,930,483 | 1,740,787,140,000 | 1,740,788,141,174 | NO | 0.01 | 10,453.484354 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
lf5ws4bxwtDMPc4gc9tP | will-the-adl-have-to-issue-a-statem | Will the ADL issue a statement against Kyrie Irving by 12/31/2024? | null | 1,716,427,863,437 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,857,271,235 | NO | 0.026776 | 5,244 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
NAgQ5O6Lt6 | will-elon-trump-have-a-major-fallin-9CzOs8UUh9 | Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025? | null | 1,740,507,945,370 | 1,749,566,507,688 | 1,749,566,507,688 | YES | 0.98266 | 15,461.84379 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
SAIehGxbCln8F9N37J1k | will-the-doj-charge-tesla-executive | Will the DOJ charge Tesla executives with wire fraud or securities fraud? | null | 1,715,203,216,618 | 1,746,766,740,000 | 1,746,814,305,870 | NO | 0.01 | 950.896293 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
I8UIShSLPh | will-i-run-12-times-and-jogwalk-24 | Will I run 12+ times and jog/walk 24+ times (32+ hours total) in April? | null | 1,743,382,623,381 | 1,745,082,886,516 | 1,745,082,886,516 | NO | 0.778399 | 130 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
6uzRPu2lZ6 | mavs-trade-number-1-pick | NBA Draft - Mavericks trade number 1 pick? | null | 1,747,136,425,107 | 1,750,901,940,000 | 1,750,964,708,172 | NO | 0.01 | 1,076.742038 | Sports | Professional Sports |
2BAH7MUvyu2FO43UNj9g | will-one-of-the-top-10-highest-gros | Will one of the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2024 be from China? | null | 1,715,658,883,630 | 1,735,723,767,039 | 1,735,723,767,039 | YES | 0.988426 | 1,107.133173 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
l259vlalw3 | will-a-state-in-the-usa-besides-ban-5ud39o7mro | Will a state in the USA ban Uber And/or Lyft outright for all counties and cities by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,999,011,501 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,780,864,932 | NO | 0.188362 | 110 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
3fxx2v9f8l | will-the-save-saving-on-a-valuable | Will the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) student loan repayment plan be cancelled by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,451,094,286 | 1,735,768,740,000 | 1,748,247,564,925 | NO | 0.02232 | 562 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
NzQdush9h6 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-g5glIunUnh | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 25than it closed on Mar 24? | null | 1,742,909,602,757 | 1,742,932,815,133 | 1,742,932,815,133 | YES | 0.99 | 35,380.237782 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
xgtbig43dz | will-elon-musks-spacex-land-anythin | Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025? | null | 1,728,356,678,654 | 1,748,788,140,000 | 1,749,371,083,021 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
bRKNXg3f0EdzV2SlShQh | will-the-chinese-army-will-launch-a | Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024? | null | 1,716,594,389,393 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,741,035,304 | NO | 0.018351 | 96,012.514653 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
tpsUzI6tQg | minecraft-speedrun-sub-7-in-1161-in | Minecraft Speedrun sub 7 in 1.16.1 in 2025? | null | 1,748,932,459,165 | 1,749,678,066,088 | 1,749,678,066,088 | YES | 0.987382 | 9,797.202307 | Gaming | Gaming |
g6uuuP0LdR | will-i-lift-weights-today-EhhtRhuOPZ | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,738,129,842,555 | 1,738,213,140,000 | 1,738,218,309,527 | NO | 0.45 | 53.696345 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
7r2jxweq58 | can-an-llm-beat-me-in-chess | Can an LLM beat me in chess? | null | 1,726,758,775,597 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,123,981,399 | NO | 0.10361 | 283.772445 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
bwbbj21uec | will-bryce-young-finish-in-the-top | Will Bryce Young finish in the top 20 in QBR in 2024? | null | 1,722,522,271,124 | 1,739,336,340,000 | 1,739,594,077,098 | YES | 0.906904 | 22,362.294324 | Sports | Professional Sports |
pC6CItSCRc | how-to-survive-the-broligarchy-post | "How to survive the broligarchy" posting regularly in February 2026 | null | 1,747,967,928,041 | 1,751,777,242,887 | 1,751,777,242,887 | NO | 0.635577 | 244.518572 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
1citkm8jtr | will-yoyo-yuan-and-barton-rhodes-en | Will Yoyo Yuan and Barton Rhodes end up dating? | null | 1,724,588,796,918 | 1,741,884,534,459 | 1,741,884,534,459 | NO | 0.069174 | 270 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
qPrPNakJBq | will-bayesian-networks-arent-necess | Will "Bayesian Networks Aren't Necessarily Causal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,735,527,130,900 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,429,817 | NO | 0.14 | 0 | Technology | Computing & Software |
gZI2lA6Zcc | mcdonalds-corp-makes-an-official-st | McDonald's Corp makes an official statement about their ice cream machines by 2/1/2025 | null | 1,730,929,238,237 | 1,738,475,940,000 | 1,746,115,674,348 | NO | 0.010499 | 1,017.945428 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
ra03enxo4p | will-sam-darnold-start-10-or-more-g | Will Sam Darnold start 10 or more games at QB in 2024? | null | 1,719,628,376,379 | 1,737,521,940,000 | 1,737,568,346,732 | YES | 0.99 | 12,414.149184 | Sports | Professional Sports |
tNSNIl8tEd | will-trump-impose-any-tariffs-at-or | Will Trump impose any tariffs at or above 25% on imports from Mexico before the end of 2025? | null | 1,733,876,236,737 | 1,738,458,053,679 | 1,738,458,053,679 | YES | 0.827086 | 448.866047 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
NEnS25husu | will-i-get-top-10-on-hmmt | Will I get top 10 on HMMT? | null | 1,739,647,555,056 | 1,739,665,204,165 | 1,739,665,204,165 | NO | 0.01 | 9,178.4458 | Sports | Individual Sports |
u1zyv7c8ep | will-the-manifold-experience-get-wo | Will the Manifold experience get worse after the US election, according to a poll taken 3 months after the US election? | null | 1,727,889,280,242 | 1,738,821,540,000 | 1,739,427,027,635 | NO | 0.102467 | 1,470.990619 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
iwp4iq2jlh | will-i-be-on-the-2025-us-ipho-team-6v3py1zkjf | Will I be on the 2025 US IPhO Team? | null | 1,728,192,458,419 | 1,749,052,771,223 | 1,749,052,771,223 | NO | 0.010486 | 1,981.040848 | Sports | Individual Sports |
9IZRdRN6zP | will-i-believe-tpot-is-publicly-per | Will I believe TPOT is publicly perceived as an extremist group by March 1st, 2025 | null | 1,733,973,418,191 | 1,740,873,600,000 | 1,740,878,612,170 | NO | 0.074291 | 2,534 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
4d3c2fe60v | will-the-number-of-monthly-active-u | Will the number of monthly active users on Manifold drop between November 30th, 2024 and December 31st, 2024? | null | 1,721,606,258,416 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,736,192,713,745 | YES | 0.96944 | 5,380.959762 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
bczq099bmu | will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide | Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025? | null | 1,719,366,605,389 | 1,750,478,340,000 | 1,750,916,606,436 | NO | 0.26338 | 976 | Sports | Individual Sports |
QUPGBrfssMEx0dCOl2he | will-ai-4-introducing-gpt4-make-the | Will "AI #4: Introducing GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,012,979,858 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,381,279 | NO | 0.135043 | 110 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
6n9CzCcgPl | will-a-rider-who-starts-the-first-s | Will a rider who starts the first stage of the 2025 Tour de France fail to finish the stage? | null | 1,751,440,916,556 | 1,751,709,600,000 | 1,751,726,751,121 | YES | 0.677572 | 1,104.386276 | Sports | Team Sports |
qE5qCyt9y2 | champions-league-will-psg-advance-a | Champions League: Will PSG advance against Aston Villa? | null | 1,742,768,869,416 | 1,744,743,600,000 | 1,744,751,327,911 | YES | 0.924769 | 1,574.095627 | Sports | Team Sports |
gS8uhSIEp9 | will-i-qualify-for-usajmo-with-a-23 | Will I qualify for USAJMO with a 231.5 10A+I index? | null | 1,740,078,104,609 | 1,741,665,540,000 | 1,744,046,587,784 | NO | 0.01 | 957.592345 | Sports | Individual Sports |
p2ndk376w3 | will-invulnerable-incomplete-prefer | Will "Invulnerable Incomplete Preferences:
A Forma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,725,027,343,182 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,590,148 | NO | 0.10324 | 350 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
EnP5SEzUcd | will-barca-win-against-real-betis | Will Barca win against Real Betis? | null | 1,743,815,527,134 | 1,743,897,540,000 | 1,743,902,179,540 | NO | 0.040588 | 577.068499 | Sports | Team Sports |
9c0QgcAZ9O | will-i-like-talking-to-claude-37-mo | Will I like talking to Claude 3.7 more than talking to Claude 3.6? | null | 1,740,465,397,952 | 1,741,075,140,000 | 1,741,077,664,543 | NO | 0.359567 | 405.670417 | Technology | Computing & Software |
W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk | president-joe-biden-involved-in-an-x7cg74qn52 | President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024? | null | 1,717,051,043,546 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,737,388,998,644 | NO | 0.018045 | 8,998.505562 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
gqP00y5Oy2 | will-amazon-amzn-close-higher-on-fe | Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on Feb 7th, 2025 than it did on Jan 31st, 2025 | null | 1,738,506,840,300 | 1,738,967,415,157 | 1,738,967,415,157 | NO | 0.28 | 1,004.752163 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
62Z005Uz5N | will-a-new-holiday-be-established-b | Will A new Holiday be established by the end of April 2025? Trump Adding Holidays? | null | 1,740,702,090,610 | 1,746,075,540,000 | 1,746,124,726,316 | NO | 0.051385 | 370 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
UyuZpIzR9g | at-least-5-of-federal-workers-accep | At least 5% of federal workers accept Trump administration buyout offer by February 6th 2025 | null | 1,738,213,632,713 | 1,738,886,400,000 | 1,739,466,276,457 | NO | 0.054675 | 9,764.49607 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
2u51nzx2ay | will-any-of-azncga-states-that-neve | Will any of AZ/NC/GA vote more democratic than any of the "blue wall" states in 2024? | null | 1,724,955,119,885 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,744,416,095,145 | NO | 0.025 | 1,124.640588 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NLLE6hppp0 | will-china-allow-westerners-to-cont | Will China allow westerners to continue interacting with Chinese on Xiaohongshu/RedNote? | null | 1,736,912,471,460 | 1,741,957,140,000 | 1,742,520,701,178 | YES | 0.963842 | 2,522.444483 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
9swh92ekd7 | will-hungary-receive-oil-from-lukoi | Will Hungary receive oil from Lukoil through Ukraine on 2025-01-01? | null | 1,721,903,392,242 | 1,735,772,340,000 | 1,736,254,629,957 | YES | 0.92773 | 303 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
zuPLOLSnly | will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-l9tn8tyE90 | Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q2 2025? | null | 1,743,493,405,774 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,474,906,556 | NO | 0.01 | 1,003.69235 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
dAspnCUsNC | will-bitcoin-surpass-95000-by-the-e | Will bitcoin surpass $95,000 by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,741,001,601,207 | 1,743,506,701,550 | 1,743,506,701,550 | NO | 0.01 | 1,900.04537 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
tSmI97iXzTCHLh61JPTs | will-ross-ulbricht-be-pardoned-or-h | Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025? | null | 1,716,783,511,071 | 1,737,561,797,030 | 1,737,561,797,030 | YES | 0.998972 | 170,564.652869 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
AhQLzRl29O | will-the-nintendo-switch-2-or-other-ZtqdqN0hAn | Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year? | null | 1,730,631,509,871 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,736,036,311 | NO | 0.01 | 15,092.715663 | Technology | Gaming |
p4jeidt2zp | will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-w4fg7958f3 | Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q4 2024? | null | 1,727,801,454,211 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,531,471 | NO | 0.057463 | 504.999995 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
UUpg8Phtgz | will-the-price-of-eggs-go-up-in-tru | Will the price of eggs go up in Trump's first month? | null | 1,731,692,775,418 | 1,741,873,341,993 | 1,741,873,341,993 | YES | 0.99 | 17,383.50301 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
dytcgUAIpQ | i-win-ten-consecutive-matches-of-ma | Will I win ten consecutive matches of Magic before 2028? | null | 1,744,674,744,990 | 1,746,758,040,475 | 1,746,758,040,475 | YES | 0.43595 | 405 | Entertainment | Gaming |
5hdESARgtz | us-nonfarm-payroll-higher-in-may-20 | US non-farm payroll higher in May 2025 than April 2025? | null | 1,746,200,020,428 | 1,749,213,221,846 | 1,749,213,221,846 | NO | 0.01 | 9,085.874371 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
EhZqc0qqyh | will-there-be-another-major-plane-a | Will there be another major plane accident before the weekend arrives. | null | 1,739,986,521,641 | 1,740,073,396,372 | 1,740,073,396,372 | YES | 0.988961 | 1,015 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
tnpp22lZc5 | will-former-doge-staffer-marko-elez | Will former DOGE staffer Marko Elez be back in the US Govt by end of 2025? | null | 1,738,896,202,714 | 1,740,701,760,000 | 1,741,607,765,962 | YES | 0.955411 | 10,326.350287 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
ZRsz2tRC2A | assassins-creed-shadows-achieves-80 | Assassin's Creed Shadows achieves 80+ Metacritic score by March 1st 2025 | null | 1,735,829,504,654 | 1,740,787,200,000 | 1,741,272,889,377 | NO | 0.187454 | 135 | Entertainment | Gaming |
GtvRHgf3Ua6K61fMNLk9 | will-anyone-be-successfully-sued-in | Will anyone be successfully sued in Texas for having an abortion in another state before 2025? | null | 1,714,751,103,836 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,740,376,607 | NO | 0.01 | 938.493425 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
0sULs82R29 | will-bluesky-have-70-million-or-mor | Will Bluesky have 70 million or more users at the end of 2024? | null | 1,731,741,525,095 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,877,434,807 | NO | 0.010014 | 1,003.000007 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
4fJOJKtgd2PyusFPrLtw | will-a-soldier-from-a-nato-country | Will a soldier from a NATO country be confirmed killed in action inside Ukraine during 2024? | null | 1,715,927,995,890 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,739,956,294,964 | NO | 0.019112 | 8,492.766715 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
czd6s5Ayzs | will-i-be-able-to-track-my-youtube | Will I be able to track my youtube consumption for a week? | null | 1,744,279,695,139 | 1,744,636,456,196 | 1,744,636,456,196 | NO | 0.823097 | 379.333011 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
8npdLUAcQZ | will-benthams-bulldog-write-a-follo | Will Bentham’s Bulldog write a follow-up post to “Don’t Eat Honey” before July 31, 2025? | null | 1,751,623,987,967 | 1,751,691,428,369 | 1,751,691,428,369 | YES | 0.989673 | 1,864 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
8syen48a46 | will-dan-clancey-still-be-ceo-of-tw--cash | Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,695,622,566 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,761,690,413 | YES | 0.984979 | 1,699.007932 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
UC9pu9cAhp | will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP | Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win? | null | 1,737,943,197,845 | 1,739,157,678,861 | 1,739,157,678,861 | YES | 0.995645 | 713,956.211245 | Sports | Professional Sports |
EEZApCAUUL | will-primetime-ratings-for-fox-news | Will Primetime ratings for Fox News during week of February 10 exceed the combined primetime ratings of CNN and MSNBC? | null | 1,737,079,780,667 | 1,740,113,940,000 | 1,740,139,594,462 | YES | 0.75 | 73.205081 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
g61ht9kslw | will-the-nyc-rat-index-be-65-or-hig | Will the NYC Rat Index be 65 or higher at the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,408,349,351 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,858,536 | NO | 0.021374 | 600 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
vhyeoply3z | will-steamos-40-come-out-by-the-end | Will SteamOS 4.0 come out by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,723,738,863,154 | 1,743,544,740,000 | 1,743,684,143,746 | NO | 0.01 | 914.968262 | Technology | Computing & Software |
nEpRuzqttR | will-a-forbes-30-under-30-winner-of | Will a Forbes 30 Under 30 winner of any vintage be arrested before June 1? | null | 1,737,080,456,183 | 1,748,796,326,538 | 1,748,796,326,538 | NO | 0.206044 | 205 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
tdqtntsLqO | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8INN68q6lz | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1138 and 1139? | null | 1,737,904,780,722 | 1,738,509,474,520 | 1,738,509,477,447 | NO | 0.202491 | 12,796.297178 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
izhq9jq94f | will-bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggress-5sfazvokkt | Will "Bing Chat is blatantly, aggressively misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,723,346,832,744 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,373,260 | YES | 0.140683 | 525.442131 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
5tsOcdZ8UZ | will-manifold-add-back-1-sweepcash | Will Manifold add back <1 Sweepcash trades in 2024? | null | 1,730,250,517,767 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,745,535,974 | NO | 0.01 | 904.987435 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
5Zp9PhC8En | ncaa-basketball-march-madness-round | NCAA Basketball 🏀 March Madness Round 1: Will BOTH Florida(v. Norfolk St) AND Houston (v.SIU Edwardsville) win by 10+? | null | 1,742,218,669,740 | 1,742,605,143,819 | 1,742,605,143,819 | YES | 0.99 | 9,166.015039 | Sports | Team Sports |
4f09j6om6x | will-black-friday-sales-in-2024-be | Will Black Friday sales in 2024 be greater than 2023 | null | 1,724,272,033,343 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,745,333,104 | YES | 0.873975 | 165 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
S0g6CIlNpQ | this-question-has-15-bets-by-may-22 | This question has 15+ bets by May 22? | null | 1,747,839,942,947 | 1,747,915,617,012 | 1,747,915,639,825 | YES | 0.99 | 1,602.495032 | SPORTS | Sports Culture & Recreation |
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