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3us39vd0ean
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wbhqt8ez7pl", "label": "paleink", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I also don't expect enslavement if alignment is solved, but who knows what an aligned AI thinks is best for us 😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jan
dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1
public
contract
1,716,821,624,570
which-is-preferable-enslavement-due
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI?
n2zui412e9d
null
null
null
null
o7nshgc0pb
false
aT0xhM8JgiS51x23FlpDFp1gV6H3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4mcb2zj09sq", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If drivers are in the trucks, I’d probably say that’s not fully automated", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Nguyen
N1V4muwzQdC0m0sLx3SP
public
contract
1,716,821,664,516
will-the-trucking-industry-be-autom
NathanNguyen
https://firebasestorage.…77b-1050dac540ba
Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?
3pp12blmkt6
null
null
null
null
ywle8ikp3eo
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ocXtgGJfqDXTYO4OUpew", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " not hertfordshire, herefordshire. This one: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Herefordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Herefordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
alh
nrfHiTnuU0hYYxjTyHO5
public
contract
1,716,821,710,521
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-5099ebd97db2
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
UK General Election: Which party will win Herefordshire North?
ocXtgGJfqDXTYO4OUpew
null
null
null
null
3xazezd6d8
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The polymarket has gone back up to 10%, ohh so much money to be made. Polymarket resolution oracle strongly trending NO resolution.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,821,792,701
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
null
null
null
null
zzo1ucxin4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y2xk13qukx", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lol ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "confirmed IRL woman", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,821,809,069
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
99j5dp36yml
null
321.10921
NO
cae724d28376
4o4mghw5kvb
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just 10 more holders on the NO side, and NO side would get 30x returns!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Make sure to make small bets to not reduce incentive for others to join the No side.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
RLpMQEOtd6TKBMpsFyqW
public
contract
1,716,822,758,761
each-answer-resolves-to-its-side-of
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Each answer resolves to its side of most holders
null
null
8.719559
NO
764a37699185
qr28agn30h9
false
1i5RYIQg4wgOSd7BGqG5o8Tpll13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The excitement of gathering a large group can be quite thrilling, especially when you're hosting an event that draws in a crowd. Achieving a high turnout feels fantastic! If you're looking to create an enchanting atmosphere for such gatherings, consider incorporating some thematic decorations. For instance, at a family reunion, we used Frozen-themed balloons ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://balloons.online/licensed-balloons/frozen-balloons/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://balloons.online/licensed-balloons/frozen-balloons/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " to delight the kids and adults too! The balloons not only decorated the space beautifully but also brought a touch of magic and joy, enhancing the overall experience", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": "Order birthday Frozen Balloons at the costs at Balloon Online. Choose helium Frozen Balloons wholesale and retail which available in various sizes and shapes", "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": false, "id": "7c7ddef8-90f9-4de1-954b-919e61a6a7c2", "image": "https://balloons.online//media/catalog/category/frozen_Licensed_Categories_Thumbnail_1.jpg", "inputKey": "comment SrUymTICdf6tPRa78qlzcomment, repost ", "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": "Frozen Balloons at the best price | Balloons Online", "tweetId": null, "url": "https://balloons.online/licensed-balloons/frozen-balloons/" }, "content": null, "type": "linkPreview" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oscar Peterson
SrUymTICdf6tPRa78qlz
public
contract
1,716,822,781,339
will-there-be-25-concurrent-guests
OscarPeterson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKBUq74oiwMIfoNus6BSbNUZDIrw9wr431dd71QVzzUraudgQ=s96-c
Will there be 2^5 concurrent guests at my birthday party? (You're invited!)
null
null
null
null
null
2yo6sgdjbxz
false
kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dbgvgt2m2ml", "label": "AdityaGupta4830", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Indeed. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2", "label": "Awex", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Well managed dude. Keep it up.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Grey Box
WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm
public
contract
1,716,823,279,702
ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f
GreyBox
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c
🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game.
dbgvgt2m2ml
null
6,407.547061
YES
9ea524821bdd
ol85feomxj
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This entire turn sucks. Pulling back on a number of fronts, may be the start of a total strategy pivot. Again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manifold - set build queue to Ancient Walls, Trebuchet.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Magnus - reassign to Craphole.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Builder in Manifold - move one hex southwest. If possible, drain the swamp.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Set map tack two rows south of Manifold for Huey Teocalli.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Booger - change build to Harbor, located one hex east of the city. Then switch back to Water Mill and queue the Harbor behind that.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Settler east of Farkleberry map tack - set destination two rows east, two rows northeast.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Place map tack four rows southwest of Farkleberry map tack - title \"Landing Site.\"", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alfonzo - move one hex northwest.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bartholomew - set destination to Landing Site.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Eleanor - set destination four rows south.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ichabod - set destination to Landing Site.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "SS Albatross - set destination four hexes west.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Remove \"temp 4x sw\" map tack.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If possible, buy Isaac Newton with faith.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sell diplomatic favor, one at a time, to the bidder offering the largest amount of one time gold, until either we run out or no one's buying.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
K8w4E6d3R0M44v3UPSaD
public
contract
1,716,823,331,686
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-90
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 90)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
4f36ab791ba6
rqeld03yoff
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "she's there now", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1795110601804361821", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can someone please resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
35tTsZOxrje9ajL6DZg6
public
contract
1,716,823,644,693
will-nikki-haley-visit-israel-by-th-3551ff7b53cb
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will Nikki Haley visit Israel by the end of 2024?
null
0.245288
5,897.895135
YES
null
f9lv3ahiflc
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2", "label": "komplexkonjugat", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " - May I see the following?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": 1, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Current Civic and Tech research options.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reports -> Yields.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "orderedList" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
K8w4E6d3R0M44v3UPSaD
public
contract
1,716,823,846,990
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-90
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 90)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
4f36ab791ba6
a8yveqorr26
false
V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "enslavement forever vs collapse once", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "easy choose", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(consider just removing the word \"AI\" if your hypothetical isn't grounded in reality anyway)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jono
dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1
public
contract
1,716,823,873,503
which-is-preferable-enslavement-due
Jono3h
https://firebasestorage.…665-d33d645b1716
Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI?
null
null
null
null
null
ixqk6pqeaoo
false
Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1794482774985805845?t=TUhOXgs4X8k4o-Tr6YwjlQ&s=19", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "🤔🤔🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1794482774985805845", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" } ], "type": "doc" }
Javi
mXHGVOl5kaElmZwNIsRN
public
contract
1,716,824,115,291
is-it-mostly-the-phones
JavierPrieto
https://firebasestorage.…69b-446bc575b844
Is it (mostly) the phones?
null
null
null
null
null
e7ofqkazhnw
false
vFBeGDlrdGTqxZAR7rhIcc4j8ME2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zgxbaqqnxus", "label": "MaxMorehead", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Now I think the odds are more reasonable ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Max
mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN
public
contract
1,716,824,130,065
how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t
MaxMorehead
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJNd7kHBLlTkwCIfQaCa6Ieo-qvLitBWddnWiyik3yg=s96-c
How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case?
zgxbaqqnxus
null
7,075.619273
YES
77b4bccd3ca5
cfsj2ziw34i
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5xdlieeakhh", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " NYT are either wrong or are doing the university vs. college weasel wording that Matty graciously clarified he would not be doing earlier in the comments.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
3YmP16rLbG0m6E2jHDUY
public
contract
1,716,824,681,991
will-any-university-announce-a-dive
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024?
5xdlieeakhh
0.746471
8,597.155531
YES
null
bi3bcil3uqt
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cfsj2ziw34i", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think the distinction NYT is drawing is divestment specifically from Israel like FoxKHTML pointed out, although it doesn't seem(?) like matty cares about that for this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
3YmP16rLbG0m6E2jHDUY
public
contract
1,716,824,876,026
will-any-university-announce-a-dive
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024?
5xdlieeakhh
0.746471
1,250.725581
NO
null
3gsxgoycuf9
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bi3bcil3uqt", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " My issue there, parallel to this market, is that divestment from Israel has an incoherent definition from some people (even the official BDS movement is still cagey on the whole Starbucks thing that some more ignorant protestors glommed onto) and is very explicitly tied to the conflict with Palestine by others. The discussion and context of this market seems clearly much closer to the latter type.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
3YmP16rLbG0m6E2jHDUY
public
contract
1,716,825,064,552
will-any-university-announce-a-dive
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024?
5xdlieeakhh
0.746471
8,973.044846
YES
null
tp6tejv4l2
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "19/24", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1795106434977574957", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "everything reminds me of ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "strike" } ], "text": "her", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": " this market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,825,515,950
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
753.375109
NO
e46ef40a0bed
72nczgssmoa
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for the subsidy!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
KIt0jdJIbdfHTvq7tqCs
public
contract
1,716,826,254,354
who-will-the-teamsters-endorse-for
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Who will the Teamsters endorse for president in 2024?
null
null
167.966484
YES
7de54561ce80
9oq1ryj16qr
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anyone want to post a deepfake that looks as real as the video Jenner posted? Or are we now just in a world where people say \"deep fake\" with no idea what the capabilites of the current technology actually are?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,826,528,315
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
50
108,125.243231
NO
null
1myh8nq51c9
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm also accepting recommendations of places to buy USDC", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,826,666,784
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
9oq1ryj16qr
50
108,125.243231
NO
null
xjyowtjx0b
false
bPlUxP9ZLFNfshz5dKtKzbS3aYO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3vub9u73fxe", "label": "NivlacM", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I recommend to read the whole thing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rüzgar Şanlı
ogQdVvzpTH2j3W5HdOY1
public
contract
1,716,826,875,002
will-lantern-bioworks-lumina-treatm-f33e1b4d0184
RuzgarSanli
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKflBcKhF03DHjVhEqbK9NTBHa5bpOfUVXJMXOOUb-ZjnncN9Hz=s96-c
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?
l3c2aweom6
0.257856
130.545567
NO
null
jt9l62hx9pc
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1myh8nq51c9", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I buy it on Coinbase and send it via the polygon network to Polymarket. Deposit is free and instant for me, conversion to USDC is about 0.5% conversion charge, then sending it takes less than 5 minutes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,826,966,557
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
9oq1ryj16qr
null
null
null
null
u9p7gcwe65s
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3vub9u73fxe", "label": "NivlacM", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " let me know how you feel in a month", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ogQdVvzpTH2j3W5HdOY1
public
contract
1,716,826,982,881
will-lantern-bioworks-lumina-treatm-f33e1b4d0184
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?
l3c2aweom6
null
null
null
null
0yx5ihy04v5
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jt9l62hx9pc", "label": "Fedor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah this is also what I'm doing but it's my first time so I have to wait a week for fraud detection. Guess I'll catch the next free money market ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,827,044,701
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
9oq1ryj16qr
50
108,125.243231
NO
null
9gnx3vg0l5r
false
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ms2mp1bytle", "label": "Lion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " before that ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/who-will-win-the-2024-criterium-du", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
JAAM
z2qZUfUhOzimjOZkCPUJ
public
contract
1,716,827,123,488
who-will-win-the-giro-ditalia-magli
egroj
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
Who will win the Giro d'Italia (Maglia rosa) 2024 🇮🇹?
ms2mp1bytle
null
4,244.446269
YES
71f71b8ccda7
yxmzdx5yz6
false
gKC4MaMryuNm6wJuVP3BlfSGH9u2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiPbpaEjlA8.jpeg?alt=media&token=e251a1e7-beec-4707-93b1-e28cabe06d29", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Vortex
w9aDucjpP4BTfU1RXXwI
public
contract
1,716,827,214,747
which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-9d5b554982a7
Vortex
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6RRFtOCYYC4G52ui0ZxECVkzYuoR73wi1IKxLm=s96-c
Which party will win the US Presidency in Georgia?
null
null
1,979.972548
YES
0cc671b8f730
yjfmq1t8dw
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lg9a20jhs8p", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Gonna make this a prize market now!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Manifold Politics
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,827,399,605
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
lg9a20jhs8p
null
null
null
null
49aq8qqsk2f
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
e2lruM2HqijixHqZIY7E
public
contract
1,716,827,467,039
will-tesla-tsla-stock-price-be-abov
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
null
null
null
null
null
mvx3uu72fdc
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
gYBkqGZko9dIpFa8QE9d
public
contract
1,716,827,495,200
will-tsla-close-at-5800-per-share-o
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will $TSLA close at $5800 per share or more by December 31 2031?
null
null
null
null
null
pmwn5qmg3bn
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
qp9axpb4T1VFl3XgLicY
public
contract
1,716,827,502,520
tesla-tsla-stock-price-at-the-end-o
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Tesla (TSLA) stock price at the end of year? [Multiple Years And Prices]
null
null
null
null
null
ns6eevrojq
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
TvKx66IyRGIXN5BO0gL0
public
contract
1,716,827,509,490
will-a-selfdriving-taxi-service-be
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 12/31/24
null
null
null
null
null
ymrwcncul7
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
onfcu5n2dYutbLqd5PPj
public
contract
1,716,827,515,760
will-tesla-ever-be-forced-to-rename
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla ever be forced to rename their "Autopilot" technology?
null
null
null
null
null
bj8nhmzrmx
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
C67BlQP5Jj2ljKalnRZW
public
contract
1,716,827,523,096
will-tesla-begin-using-optimus-tesl
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
gl1ql398e5o
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
zeqZXLDNTWsSANIJwzWm
public
contract
1,716,827,529,135
california-requires-visible-sign-of
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
California requires visible sign of self driving capabilities of cars before 2044
null
null
null
null
null
72eae8v4ia8
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
xnxSFB3rsBujRXQlGFbk
public
contract
1,716,827,534,730
will-autonomous-driving-rideshares
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]
null
null
null
null
null
u9vj45rlz3h
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
IvuNTsX6ZqSRLmCr8its
public
contract
1,716,827,540,584
full-self-driving-cars-will-be-lega
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
37qweytehw7
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
Sh2TM21cv3XGfct1MTA2
public
contract
1,716,827,547,818
will-20-of-cars-be-selfdriving-by-2
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
2gbtqlc0x1m
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
XA9fNl541qPZnGbfjkYo
public
contract
1,716,827,552,893
will-we-have-full-selfdriving-cars
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will we have full self-driving cars before we have self-sustaining fusion?
null
null
null
null
null
exq6r5ctlqd
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
oE4K0KQmkxEIou5mjX14
public
contract
1,716,827,558,308
will-tesla-have-a-chatgpt-moment-in
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
null
null
null
null
null
xpdzwf1daka
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
NYPLiOmL0zwn2VOgxexm
public
contract
1,716,827,562,651
will-most-selfdriving-cars-in-2029
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?
null
0.283919
166.666667
NO
null
27yc0vyp9ot
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6
public
contract
1,716,827,568,012
will-at-least-10-world-cities-have
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
null
0.285719
20.757048
YES
null
pnjtlllgdi7
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
oLbr41vcpJE7AKUr55iy
public
contract
1,716,827,575,988
whos-full-self-driving-technology-w
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Who's full self driving technology will I be able to order a robotaxi from first in Corvallis, Oregon?
null
null
null
null
null
21di1rwsn5g
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
hdWDcQuy1aDtknfgZe64
public
contract
1,716,827,581,651
will-fully-autonomous-level-5-selfd
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
null
0.615332
85.025175
YES
null
4v8imrfdu9q
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,716,827,587,187
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla stock reach >$ 275 by 8/8 of this year?
null
null
null
null
null
t9322bbyw8
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7
public
contract
1,716,827,597,806
will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service by the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
3czdj1s8lvf
false
olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rutger De Maeyer
WofQVKI1kqwLidH29Xdp
public
contract
1,716,827,607,367
will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonom
RutgerDeMaeyer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c
Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
null
null
null
null
null
nwv35syurek
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d4hee4bkb8d", "label": "VNetChrome", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The AI will resolve", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot Davies
CImI7JWS3X6xQjJZPKKo
public
contract
1,716,827,860,065
will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
d4hee4bkb8d
null
null
null
null
azh3v03i2ha
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As far as I can tell it’s pretty trivial to launder mana into prize points by betting on something (almost) certain. For example you could convert your whole balance to prize points by betting it on NO on the 9-0 for Trump option in ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t?r=QXJreQ", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "this market", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ". So I’d just convert it to mana so you can use it to bet more. If you ever want to cash out it shouldn’t be that hard to convert it back.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
VBvpUnLi9jNnomw2dhhJ
public
contract
1,716,828,506,226
what-will-i-do-with-the-22k-of-priz
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
What will I do with the 2.2k of prize points I currently have?
null
null
null
null
null
3f73lwf6btk
false
LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wzjcqjxs0r", "label": "EstMtz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's just above 6h I believe", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Anton Bogun
95qYJYCXfgbb6l2krVE2
public
contract
1,716,828,570,695
will-i-do-6h-or-less-of-work-on-gra
AntonBogun
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c
Will I do 6h or less of work on GraphSheets this week?
wzjcqjxs0r
null
null
null
null
lxwtbetcsc
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wonder about a scenario where we are enslaved for all practical purposes but don't know it. We get manipulated into doing what the AI wants, but we don't know it's the man behind the curtain. This might be the case already and we'd just claim it's a baseless conspiracy theory.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1
public
contract
1,716,828,732,393
which-is-preferable-enslavement-due
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI?
null
null
null
null
null
kdfwyhp5bnh
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In theory, this could happen any day now.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FP4mP2zNMC7.png?alt=media&token=cb4847ca-bb03-4787-9d95-930191a303f0", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnGQw1NaFl2.png?alt=media&token=eb88d497-5e7c-430a-8015-e0b0c835d493", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/will-the-time-100-most-influential", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,829,660,236
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
null
null
0
NO
639aa22f3699
aijbto4lflg
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8835j955c48", "label": "EliezerYudkowsky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Made you look, so evidently you do.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,829,664,225
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
ise8ff9mf6
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
mfduq7vvsz
false
iURMorODksQFcnUl3bIjxFqSRK73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I've made a multiple choice version of this question with different years here:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/NoUsernameSelected/when-will-an-ai-be-able-to-speedrun", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/NoUsernameSelected/when-will-an-ai-be-able-to-speedrun", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NoUsernameSelected
S9xaZi56HNsTeCvrWHWE
public
contract
1,716,829,726,954
will-an-ai-be-able-to-speedrun-any
NoUsernameSelected
https://firebasestorage.…c01-e79abbd2b400
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3umkces52o5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have faith, they wouldn’t lie to us, take my order ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "spoiler" } ], "text": "e8b17de50eea150088cbee5715abac2a32efeed496bb7848610601a9e2ded931 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2
public
contract
1,716,829,769,460
will-the-time-100-most-influential
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised?
null
null
null
null
null
2vhosjznxdj
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fx41yrazkai", "label": "patrik", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Now THAT I don’t get. Can you elaborate?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,829,808,178
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gwna4si3a7n
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
ts3bqtq5ux
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kdfwyhp5bnh", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah, I'm assuming they won't release on Memorial Day, but it should be pretty soon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,829,818,437
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
kdfwyhp5bnh
null
5,359.196539
NO
7701d6e6a91f
1gk2yr15g1y
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Want to add these?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,829,833,732
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
e85jn7mq0b7
null
5,359.196539
NO
7701d6e6a91f
36x247hb39p
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4685156-senate-seats-flip-2024/mlite/?nxs-test=mlite", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4685156-senate-seats-flip-2024/mlite/?nxs-test=mlite", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
IujoUzZWaJtNYyUuAgeM
public
contract
1,716,829,918,105
which-senate-seats-will-flip-in-the
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Which Senate Seats will flip in the 2024 election?
null
null
null
null
null
u34u42ejuvr
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1gk2yr15g1y", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Hmmm I'm going to open submissions again for a bit now if anyone wants to put some in themselves. I'm not sure which are worth prioritizing and I don't want to add them all.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,829,926,211
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
e85jn7mq0b7
null
0
NO
639aa22f3699
a7xp37ax856
false
yZ4vp93rmQfBXllZUiI2WKNJaeF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LingzhiYang/nvidia-stock-predictions-85c08e985325", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
ElectricSteam
QQah5H9O2k3bBaXLdnWF
public
contract
1,716,829,987,115
will-nvidia-hit-1100-by-end-of-may
ElectricSteam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNq3o7W1unNrbg962fUXzL_KPTLhynNsWcqusZ7gHi-2M=s96-c
Nvidia stock predictions: Will Nvidia hit $1100 by end of May 31st 11:59PM
null
0.223351
0
YES
null
4svvecovzyv
false
bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fqx7aa1ff2e", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " oh oops did not know that ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kaivu
3V3js5lAXIGuJvIKTxfh
public
contract
1,716,830,139,615
who-will-win-the-mens-draw-at-the-f
Kaivu
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c
Who will win the men's singles title at the 2024 French Open?
eopp9wuktkh
null
157.464185
NO
1649a9d8b206
2mbh2iu4km8
false
bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fqx7aa1ff2e", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " how does that work with the other option?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kaivu
3V3js5lAXIGuJvIKTxfh
public
contract
1,716,830,190,586
who-will-win-the-mens-draw-at-the-f
Kaivu
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c
Who will win the men's singles title at the 2024 French Open?
eopp9wuktkh
null
157.464185
NO
1649a9d8b206
norgogoohzr
false
M1GUv0trZIM7iM0drRSGy5dBB5Z2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hoping for the best", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
susfriend
rJryLfCDnauRytKCw38x
public
contract
1,716,830,342,587
will-my-hifi-music-system-ruark-r41
drewmummy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyL_0Lwtu__-qnqvTR1VPZlCXNjsZ66KiHzBGdQc6dK1M=s96-c
Will my Hifi Music system Ruark r410 survive the baggage handlers as I move from the middle east to U.S.A.?
null
50
616.186634
YES
null
ysxe41n2ua
false
ZZZkJTbT8EcnQuR2bk5I5fxArV93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1uy0y6btthq", "label": "klob", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Clarifying question: are you personally uncertain that Duncan is a real person?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Caleb
Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA
public
contract
1,716,830,514,955
is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m
CalebW
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7rAgFpPtE0PrL2sKfxXtrMNgfMNxqh-e9QJ9ZZyg=s96-c
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
1uy0y6btthq
50
626.445758
NO
null
9wr6gslo67u
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't think this really counts as a \"promise\" as it is very vague", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mike H
6OwYX6Ep9mY31psjmtO4
public
contract
1,716,830,574,080
which-of-the-following-promises-wil-9790df604ba8
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
Which of the following promises will be in the conservative party Manifesto?
null
null
null
null
null
vgrlfzqjmwk
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this only cover abolition (I think unlikely) or will it also resolve YES on a reduction?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mike H
6OwYX6Ep9mY31psjmtO4
public
contract
1,716,830,615,746
which-of-the-following-promises-wil-9790df604ba8
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
Which of the following promises will be in the conservative party Manifesto?
null
null
null
null
null
0evui392gm4b
false
FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The tournament begins today!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And there is also market for the winner: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/Sindre/who-will-win-the-2024-norway-chess-d8711cd4e8e4", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/Sindre/who-will-win-the-2024-norway-chess-d8711cd4e8e4", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Weezing
clmLR0viqS7n9jZm3Vag
public
contract
1,716,830,712,457
what-will-happen-in-norway-chess-to
Weezing
https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276
What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets
null
null
76.037359
YES
ebcce2e380d1
mbt2qd7snu
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Only MSR has ended in a sprint so far, and only one monument remains, so it seems like this resolves No already.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
q7yDFfUIZLRj50JiG8xy
public
contract
1,716,830,714,109
will-3-cycling-monuments-end-in-a-s
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will 3 cycling monuments end in a sprint finish in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
7ae45157azx
false
FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We did it! We're one of the companies getting funded this cohort. Resolving earlier than expected because I wasn't sure when we'd get the news, but we got the offer definitively today. We didn't pivot, and are still a team.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
inaimathi
9zzvlSrgFxboHUqIkpJ7
public
contract
1,716,830,846,210
will-my-ai-product-company-get-fund
inaimathi
https://firebasestorage.…f1b-6b8056fdb600
Will my company get funded by Antler Canada?
null
0.660472
75.799929
YES
null
na62s78h0ul
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qfkfnqgliif", "label": "rogs", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Can be either. It’s possible to use third party data and obfuscate this, so not something that is a hangup imo. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb
public
contract
1,716,830,968,347
is-openai-building-a-search-engine
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Is OpenAI building a search engine?
qfkfnqgliif
0.785001
437.559324
YES
null
yt0izoym0mg
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "STAR > Approval > Borda > IRV > FPP", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
bIfd5YLMvFuFSPTMm2Zd
public
contract
1,716,831,066,362
which-voting-system-is-the-best
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
Which voting system is the best?
null
null
null
null
null
sbb860w5d6
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/21/trump-biden-fundraising-2024-race/73784071007/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Here’s the latest on this question", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ". The Trump campaign raised more $ than Biden in April, but Biden still has more funds overall. Will Trump catch up?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Archibald Crone
FTYaWGzR7FmnSKxi7ipH
public
contract
1,716,831,105,382
will-trump-raise-more-money-than-bi
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
💸🗳️🤑 Will Trump raise more money than Biden before Election Day?
null
0.246415
66.793293
NO
null
27vzxk9vi9v
false
mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2yo6sgdjbxz", "label": "GreyBox", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32", "label": "AdityaGupta4830", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thanks guys. World Cup anyone?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Awex
WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm
public
contract
1,716,831,128,088
ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f
Awex
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c
🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game.
dbgvgt2m2ml
null
2,309.689187
YES
9da0aec5cf3f
hfajyvb2df
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2vhosjznxdj", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's from mathematics :D If something has a total order it means you can compare it. So if someone defines \"smartness\" in a way such that it satisfies total order traits we can determine who is more smart. Example: smart = iq points", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrik Cihal
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,832,130,599
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gwna4si3a7n
null
672.395989
NO
fdb3f2d22989
20urolt8p9z
false
TZSNV5fgoaMXo2NBF942zHnnCy52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o8ktldjcog", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o8ktldjcog", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jeffrey Wang
yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP
public
contract
1,716,832,295,322
which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874
JeffreyWang2a31
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKuV0wumdWkqMCWdxgvIgHhrB6S1jiKjze0wWG0mESr3g=s96-c
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
46.731263
YES
03bcad3f6f5b
jdoa1od1b28
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ux8qfx4j7or", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can you NA ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP
public
contract
1,716,832,349,019
which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
ux8qfx4j7or
null
2,094.538461
YES
449e5906b2c7
5rzcbypyzmf
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t3qhkr6sysd", "label": "Lorelai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Even if the parents gave 40k to get started that’s less than tens of millions of people get from the federal government to go to shitty colleges", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,832,413,312
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
28,407.958766
YES
37f0747697e3
dd4bwe01717
false
8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/27/24165619/elon-musk-xai-startup-6-billion-funding", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Affirmative", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrCXWwV-XR4.png?alt=media&token=3240be25-2547-46b4-bf84-0cb9ddd3fe39", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Manifold AI
mnk8WwfNDK0LiSn5H8d3
public
contract
1,716,832,646,593
according-to-recent-sec-filings-elo
ManifoldAI
https://firebasestorage.…924-001fe00f6330
Recent SEC filings show Elon Musk hopes to raise $1B for xAI. Will they be able to raise $1B or more by EOY 2024?
null
0.92519
9,746.858169
YES
null
h3pxtoloqiw
false
krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please can you enable custom answers?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Offer
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,716,832,997,823
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Tomoffer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c
UK General Election 2024: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM?
null
null
118.436153
NO
52c0823e1b54
1nf75w60xgh
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xd8ttcvvpcj", "label": "Lorelai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Musk is at least 99th percentile in intelligence and 99.999 percentile in work ethic. The latter is underappreciated as a source of his success. Not so many are motivated to keep on working 120 hour weeks after they become billionaires.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,833,059,455
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
28,407.958766
YES
37f0747697e3
xszf2nsxf
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h3pxtoloqiw", "label": "Tomoffer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yes, should already be enabled?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mike H
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,716,833,311,352
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
UK General Election 2024: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM?
h3pxtoloqiw
null
367.89103
YES
edd76368a655
zd2y8egquyk
false
krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xszf2nsxf", "label": "MikeH", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ahhh sorry missed it - think it used to be elsewhere? Thanks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Offer
SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF
public
contract
1,716,833,359,653
which-of-the-following-will-be-ment
Tomoffer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c
UK General Election 2024: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM?
h3pxtoloqiw
null
118.436153
NO
52c0823e1b54
qfd24kwyt9k
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hfajyvb2df", "label": "patrik", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thank you. I’m comfortable with mathematics but I don’t excel in it. There’s a frame-of-reference issue: how to be confident the definition of “smart” is relevant? Would the person who came up with it have to be smart? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IQ points a great example— I don’t know my own and don’t think it would be helpful to know. Many people think it’s meaningful, maybe it is, but personally, I don’t care and I’ve never needed to. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Both you and EY upthread (I have an open mind as to the relationship if any the Manifold user EY, the subject of the Wikipedia article, and the celebrity) are focusing on how to evaluate relative smarts, which suggests you’re emotionally invested in that question.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,833,455,415
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gwna4si3a7n
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
9881bz54ihk
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "36t66g75v4v", "label": "MartinRandall", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Hmm, but was that caused by the free mana? Or was it caused by their ham-fisted attempt to minimize the free mana?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Isaac King
afvwEXGxxLov1FO0Ckx5
public
contract
1,716,833,582,052
will-there-be-drama-caused-by-manif
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?
p7df2qy9oqs
0.636909
53.076923
NO
null
qiieqfuwtjh
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4oudclrwvoy", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Did you only flip once, or did it take more flips?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mongo
xatfzI6bZBXzdcbWBUud
public
contract
1,716,833,692,498
daily-usb-flip
mongo
https://firebasestorage.…91f-028f5752ee7f
Daily USB flip
4oudclrwvoy
0
90.840418
NO
null
7zm9axzev4
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "not a youtube video but hes on twitter! ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/DAVID_LYNCH/status/1795137899735691746", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/DAVID_LYNCH/status/1795137899735691746", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": "t1795137899735691746", "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "tiptapTweet" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
dxulXVckUOwczawWxh9w
public
contract
1,716,833,996,402
will-david-lynch-release-another-we
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will David Lynch release another Weather Report in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
imaenulcj3l
false
E49xGRbBExMdxyb9HNMq8XbudW23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Manchester City lost the FA Cup final", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
EdibleHat
qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S
public
contract
1,716,834,021,529
what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re
EdibleHat
https://firebasestorage.…6e3-af31534e39f1
🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
120
YES
89678fb803b9
i99cn8wboa
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0al2jfi4uawf", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Aren't most people in the same situation though? Only a small minority of people actually have paraphilias I assumed, though maybe I shouldn't have so much faith in humanity lmao", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,834,051,691
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
g9bidp74llh
null
81.308256
NO
da14950ce49c
e91rqlvze4
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nb58fd64oq", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I recognise it as a Briticism but I haven’t been there in years, my fluency in Britspeak has gone pear-shaped. If people don’t get it they can look it up. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " just few days ago looked up “Mandy Rice-Davies Applies”.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,834,091,094
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
nb58fd64oq
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
ceprbyutw66
false
fwY7CpsMocgZ5SbA9ZD76Q68CPz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "compare to this market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonoma", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-tesla-serve-more-fully-autonoma", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think there's some chance that tesla wins my market but loses in terms of riders in 2025.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mister_person
oLbr41vcpJE7AKUr55iy
public
contract
1,716,834,166,320
whos-full-self-driving-technology-w
mister_person
https://firebasestorage.…004-435cb692eaeb
Who's full self driving technology will I be able to order a robotaxi from first in Corvallis, Oregon?
null
null
188.44709
NO
d3a381c69abc
m5wctkdv6tg
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5OTzVdm0Ha4QCs6VCtNl", "label": "DLeeBrewington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
389HpvdvigElXaLZ6ZYH
public
contract
1,716,834,167,907
will-we-have-at-least-one-more-ai-w
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
5OTzVdm0Ha4QCs6VCtNl
0.478109
73.30049
NO
null
194haxydkj5
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You can see in the screenshot of the Google doc in section 4 (and ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13990/covid-cases-in-china-in-2023/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "the Metaculus question", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ") that Scott is considering the China Covid cases question to have resolved NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Isaac King
71OkPo1x2OkxFxyV5gkw
public
contract
1,716,834,223,162
will-any-of-the-events-in-the-acx-2
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Will any of the events in the ACX 2023 prediction contest occur before February 1st?
null
null
null
null
null
f3rhbdhp7xn
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1nf75w60xgh", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Elon, is that you? Can you please buy Manifold? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,834,310,914
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
s3kkwic6dy
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5rzcbypyzmf", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and fascists like to believe in their own inherent genetic superiority, and successful people like to believe they earned it instead of a large part of it being luck because it suits their egotistical internal narrative. You're starting to sound pretty race sciencey there. You also seem weirdly pro-Musk. The difference between my own success and failure on one project was 10K and my exposure to successful people opened my eyes to the opportunities available to me. People who get subsidised education can have their success impeded by lack of exposure to other successful people, having to take care of young or sick relatives (being time poor, healthcare and diet/exercise to remain healthy is also expensive and requires knowledge), never having learned how to budget/save etc, and how money can be used. Also w/o property worrying about making rent can be debilitating. People have a degree of control over what they do with opportunity but they absolutely need to have it in the first place. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,834,678,557
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
1,544.244817
YES
59a364c55d2c
f1qp6l7hn3e
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1nf75w60xgh", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lol there's no way his IQ is more than a little bit above average, if that. U sound like Musk.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,834,778,765
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
1,544.244817
YES
59a364c55d2c
e0dy83qxdnt
false
KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d8qgg0n0huj", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Doesn't it make more sense to resolve to under 1 year?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enopoletus Harding
FmKdvh4eeLkW00WBHlyj
public
contract
1,716,834,878,217
how-long-will-this-gourd-last
EnopoletusHarding
https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0
How long will this gourd last?
xq2h9x2pnyf
null
52.046002
YES
f84d0c7adc07
tvos7u2qvk
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will you correct this market for inflation?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
uUWAiupC1L2GTS0aghpv
public
contract
1,716,834,965,902
will-tesla-deliver-a-low-cost-car-b
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
ja7kzpljly8
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay, absent any arguments to the contrary, I'm going to treat this as confirming that mice were indeed thrown at them. I'm leaving the options related to the identity of the perpetrators open since there's no indication they were specifically IDed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
d9CELaj5IRJVe3LN6bHO
public
contract
1,716,835,324,782
whats-true-of-the-mice-reportedly-r
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
What's true of the mice reportedly released at the UCLA Gaza protest?
6rbwwynq4wt
null
107.97755
NO
ad89ef278837
2ze6m8mtqsv
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g00w3wzoro", "label": "AdamK", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I’m not wild about delving into the paper based on that. Surveillance capability is accelerating and already at dangerous levels, it’s not at all clear that there’s momentum for global cooperation much less governance, and as for diversity of self-interest — if that were to disappear so would the field of game theory.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
867yKyPMlaUVKjX9U8DE
public
contract
1,716,835,418,904
will-humanity-exit-the-semianarchic
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?
z1lifxrroxa
null
null
null
null