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cyx86mw83q4
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "At a glance, it looks plausible. But I'm not really qualified to answer this question with authority.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Eliza
csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ
public
contract
1,717,258,805,753
which-months-will-have-a-record-on
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward
65x8cg5e5c8
null
null
null
null
0aa2i56mx3id
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "65x8cg5e5c8", "label": "Odoacre", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
csIy55H3ygYhZLDDfSIJ
public
contract
1,717,258,930,296
which-months-will-have-a-record-on
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which month(s) will have a record on Mana sales going forward
65x8cg5e5c8
null
681.06841
NO
955adba1a13b
mpyyqkkss1a
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "suoc5xsz1r", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Franklin Baldo
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,259,015,345
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
89.041388
NO
5zv02bbw0s
qqw44gqcceq
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cww4fngqjoh", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jonathan Ray
NyA5UxR0NvsVc2yIEfIs
public
contract
1,717,259,187,631
what-is-the-best-explanation-to-the
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
What is the best explanation to the Fermi Paradox?
0631oRKgRVCAqG8Br7EI
null
54.952109
YES
d11251c01ffc
harxjys6cw4
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "People on discord are saying any hold like this is a scrub", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,259,249,501
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.897692
2,140.025456
NO
null
o6tlhpp1k2
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,259,344,436
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
harxjys6cw4
0.897692
2,140.025456
NO
null
xe5k8o3pmt
false
UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There are backup opportunities to launch on June 2, June 5 and June 6, ac...
Erik
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,259,539,421
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Kire_
https://firebasestorage.…44d-7c8fd5546156
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
null
null
null
null
e056z93zwcr
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shouldn't this be multiple choice dependent?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Evan
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,259,547,073
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
null
null
null
null
null
ry936knqqbe
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xe5k8o3pmt", "label": "Kire_", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,259,560,407
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
xe5k8o3pmt
0.897692
2,140.025456
NO
null
fmz1orgjbn8
false
STaLEOG3qgOevr1cXRzMUhwswMC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "28u4qwclva4h", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Cole Wyeth
irxUjgfSIjWjxTvmOaWU
public
contract
1,717,259,623,083
what-will-happen-to-amir-tataloo-by
ColeWyeth
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLPGxp5puiGuo7SQo_koYfSHTv4OM_ERlZq_t6a6P3JEAg=s96-c
What will happen to Amir Tataloo by June 2024?
28u4qwclva4h
null
254.610943
YES
18723f951aa6
k0riqdbszn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ideal counterparty - joshua ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null,...
chris (strutheo)
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa
public
contract
1,717,259,671,733
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold?
null
null
null
null
null
rm8g4ysfr88
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ry936knqqbe", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,259,740,277
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
xe5k8o3pmt
0.897692
2,140.025456
NO
null
6p3lrc3usx5
false
0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Gordan Knott
ws2bbQX7WVUK4T5yVD9q
public
contract
1,717,259,954,053
on-what-date-will-the-first-crewed-0c96846dd209
GordanKnott
https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a
On what date will the first crewed Boeing Starliner lift off happen?
null
null
1,094.895193
YES
d9cef7e4e86f
6rodmy7sw18
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r036hrzpwnd", "label": "24a", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
RemNi
ReZ7dwhzJT61q5aX2MMu
public
contract
1,717,259,970,412
will-there-be-concentration-camps-i
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?
r036hrzpwnd
null
null
null
null
9ylu5f7gkg8
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I guess she could still file to run as an independent, but that seems extremely unlikely. Resolving to NO.", "type": "text" } ]...
Gabrielle
SdZJzvfkNfbUnvTKrLGI
public
contract
1,717,260,015,405
will-liz-cheney-run-for-president-i
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Will Liz Cheney run for president in 2024?
null
0.015229
92.673138
NO
null
e0x2t23ub8i
false
ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So it actually has to get off the ground right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mint
hrhUdE2WToVtTV2ldmeu
public
contract
1,717,260,114,966
on-what-date-will-the-first-starlin
mint
https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2
On what date will the first Starliner crewed launch happen?
null
null
null
null
null
0lb97w7kxtia
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "19ztbhfy8yb", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,260,125,130
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
19ztbhfy8yb
null
3,008.515283
NO
u1jf6yhfn5
gsobi7exrga
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e056z93zwcr", "label": "EvanDaniel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,260,306,978
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
e056z93zwcr
null
190.913234
NO
hjyteopapv
xse0tche92l
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Though personally I doubt they'll make the 24h turnaround. Also not sure if they want to address the valve sensors that they had to switch over to the ...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,260,307,684
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
xe5k8o3pmt
0.504506
2,583.86374
NO
null
vz3u21hbwc8
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "WSJ article came out yesterday: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks":...
Jonathan Ray
NJwOrbBCu7DU74386PlD
public
contract
1,717,260,324,080
are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Are we about to hit another AI winter?
null
null
null
null
null
oun45unmi7g
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "42% - which is a 2% gain in ~11 days", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2
public
contract
1,717,260,460,372
will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2024 ends?
null
null
null
null
null
ixlrthkyreo
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i6ztqp3273l", "label": "EstMtz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Keenen W
rpINgNCUuLZiHkvZkGjZ
public
contract
1,717,260,495,635
major-league-baseball-mlb-regular-s
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches
i6ztqp3273l
null
3,040.955545
YES
162e3349d21b
5lumrxjpt3
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any direction you’re leaning?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ian Philips
DGIZAUSacYzUMKMOgeNP
public
contract
1,717,260,868,960
after-flying-out-from-australia-for
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
After flying out from Australia for LessOnline/camp, will me/my non-Rationalist GF be convinced to stay for manifest?
null
null
null
null
null
r7bxdzkx71o
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8yf3onrymha", "label": "Jacobmpp", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,260,938,941
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
8yf3onrymha
null
529.468239
YES
fe4488ef81bd
37rrqyolgk8
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any updates?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ian Philips
mK5vV8bFn9Sg5QGYIDpY
public
contract
1,717,261,232,050
will-my-chesscom-rapid-rating-reach
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Will my chess.com rapid rating reach 2000 this year?
null
null
null
null
null
v51a03dl6d
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Paper Boy
2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU
public
contract
1,717,261,362,928
predominant-color-of-trumps-tie-at
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Predominant color of Trump's tie at the debate on June 27
null
null
467.932512
YES
yombpdf7jb
ukow47onz5
false
B8KBN0Ws4nQSRyz3a0aFazVsi8F2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r7bxdzkx71o", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jacob Holz
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,261,405,234
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Jacobmpp
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLPlNd2nnkVu344Ob5Mp_qrN5LSf9Xt681QXwIcPVDmWqI=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
8yf3onrymha
null
142.894328
NO
k49s9dxh78
7e61sgjolzm
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Mqrius
2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW
public
contract
1,717,261,442,651
when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
null
null
null
null
null
jcdmjcb22p
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k81sqctb3h", "label": "MattP", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Plasma Ballin'
uYZ3EsJMnnGOQSAN0RCq
public
contract
1,717,261,463,633
will-the-supreme-court-affirm-that
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will the Supreme Court affirm that Trump participated in an insurrection?
k81sqctb3h
0.013249
150.638289
NO
null
6ts6kjho4nx
false
ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like they'll try for tomorrow.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt...
mint
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,261,469,194
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
mint
https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
null
0.504695
1,662.032662
YES
null
02qmxpg3f3eg
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mrbeast subscriber rate went insane in the past days and hours. Now it's around 3000-4000/min.", "type": "text" } ], "typ...
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,261,480,242
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
null
0.865085
2,446.646803
YES
null
cb9vo16wq6j
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And Starship is NET June 6", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null,...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,261,525,945
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
6ts6kjho4nx
0.504695
1,990.208039
NO
null
v3s4rr6cepp
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6ts6kjho4nx", "label": "mint", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mqrius
C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
public
contract
1,717,261,598,539
will-starliner-fly-before-starship
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
6ts6kjho4nx
0.504695
2,193.83066
NO
null
6cl68l1hc1l
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eqzyzu0dor", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Muga Sofer
qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S
public
contract
1,717,261,604,251
what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
eqzyzu0dor
null
1,619.740567
NO
1f1c582a20ef
v5hsgdt78qk
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "New graphics and copy on market creation Tiers:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { ...
David Glidden
eVsjvwi4WoP0VUyY0owL
public
contract
1,717,261,628,745
let-me-know-when-theres-been-a-chan
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
Alert us when Manifold has changed
null
null
null
null
null
9wtdostbpb5
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good chance ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Savior of Plant
LBErhBxUxyeIGzAPts46
public
contract
1,717,261,636,713
will-the-first-2way-national-presid
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will the first 2-way national presidential poll after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538)
null
0.466969
5,408.157798
YES
null
lolui6jtutr
false
o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "25tvvzz3fow", "label": "pzet", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Robert Sutherland
9GJhfeuAZG7f6hrAUC4V
public
contract
1,717,261,852,827
will-a-software-engineer-get-a-job
RobertSutherland
https://storage.googleap…QABsoIqOaMz2.png
Will a software engineer get a job through the tech hiring startup Otherbranch.com by the end of June?
25tvvzz3fow
0.464425
276.132948
NO
null
4vkdo91hg52
false
lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "why not", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Boo Lightning
QagfGDZR59V9hDApQYVe
public
contract
1,717,262,044,321
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ch
BooLightning
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKC4X2INo4-tyTknyIWpq6Mo4Do5kOyczhqltam6O7u4wE=s96-c
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Chat GPT into?
null
null
null
null
null
txn2sx5pli
false
8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah, on balance I think it's likely that these are still the lithium configuration.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs":...
Anton Paquin
e3ah02wnqsS2hwQYTgQs
public
contract
1,717,262,093,055
will-someone-sell-a-nonlithium-ev-b
citrinitas
https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8
Will someone sell a non-lithium EV before 2025?
f3od05bhmt9
null
null
null
null
zizpg3u6ugd
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cwe0q1htk7u", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Santeri
87lkGGgrMKacchHN3GWr
public
contract
1,717,262,221,831
who-will-hold-an-event-or-a-present
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
Who will hold an event, a talk, or a presentation at LessOnline 2024?
cwe0q1htk7u
null
122.374568
NO
cfd1131ffaea
mhpkyhetfos
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Oleg Eterevsky
SKIoyKCXQoJw2LBvdQkZ
public
contract
1,717,262,224,764
when-will-the-next-person-celebrate
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
When will the next person celebrate 120s birthday?
null
null
null
null
null
u1p23l3z57
false
TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It looks like Biden got a 2 to 3 point bump after the verdict, which is enough for him to take the lead, even if it fades eventually.", "type...
riverwalk3
cUOurcNrp3XX9tbDu6zH
public
contract
1,717,262,229,254
biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e
riverwalk3
https://firebasestorage.…3e6-c0107ab85326
Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Currently Trump +0.9%)
null
null
2,611.287603
YES
83c2f970bf4e
z7ux1y4lb9e
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gsobi7exrga", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Evan
9sJX6EGlxsYMjwO7gC4x
public
contract
1,717,262,342,335
how-many-people-will-attend-baraks
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
How many people will attend @barak's Manifest session: Repolarize American Politics
e056z93zwcr
null
null
null
null
qbnw8hbtmn
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will this resolve based on how many people check in and get their badges, or the number of sign-ups?", "type": "text" } ], ...
Santeri
0tV3A8emnzjg7EgEq0IS
public
contract
1,717,262,342,546
how-many-people-will-attend-lessonl
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
How many people will attend LessOnline (Fri May 31 - Sun Jun 2)?
null
null
39.326584
YES
ebe4ac2d5c4a
nlojy4rgeqg
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And he just passed 266mil ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, ...
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,262,734,967
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
null
0.818414
2,446.646803
YES
null
x8zabqtdfr9
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v51a03dl6d", "label": "PaperBoy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Base
2zmxH7ez87O35q1pjTfU
public
contract
1,717,262,748,685
predominant-color-of-trumps-tie-at
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
Predominant color of Trump's tie at the debate on June 27
v51a03dl6d
null
1,780.657229
YES
5m20uaw727
rb5791i57ap
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "esyh5WTH2UdkzCkeLICZ", "label": "/strutheo/will-the-person-who-wins-poker-at-m", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null,...
chris (strutheo)
176i8UTsdiOoDehgSRek
public
contract
1,717,263,066,154
who-will-win-poker-at-manifest-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?
null
null
0
NO
3c10ae82b1f5
i0egf1jq6c
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A lot of hope pinned on the next president of Mexico ❤️ ✊", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "a...
Archibald Crone
Nj37vQSYqI8yXSdVxshP
public
contract
1,717,263,071,162
-who-will-be-the-first-woman-presid
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
🇲🇽 Who will be the first woman president in North America?
null
null
null
null
null
13x9298rvsbi
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q1t284m81d", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Pat Scott🩴
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,717,263,078,702
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
q1t284m81d
null
51.382369
NO
497fb540fd9c
w3s0dg46bns
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Savior of Plant
nw8yxskRMyhJB0MQzKNw
public
contract
1,717,263,139,126
will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
null
null
null
null
null
775u9idfvdq
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have begun Godel, Escher, Bach(as the most traded book) and Permutation City(as the next highest % book) a little earlier in the day. I am listening...
mongo
mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1
public
contract
1,717,263,173,637
which-of-these-books-will-i-really
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
Which of these books will I really like?
null
null
null
null
null
yecu2d3nqe
false
6xRZb6sK2OfzveTDuGmjSIHpovF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3gc2hf5cla5", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Usaar33
HfUm6MvM7gwfd5GFBy8h
public
contract
1,717,263,982,986
did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp
Usaar33
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLs6a87Fmw7B5pZ9PGLt4kh3G0wqbs7jQWHmS8oi9ZfDYKD=s96-c
Did OpenAI achieve weak AGI with GPT-4o?
ypx54o79c
null
null
null
null
x5icj8gid1
false
qv7Akf5KlUWlhXlKFjYBvCVTGRd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "literally anyone could do this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
XwIth0bUMfaIShRBd2tX
public
contract
1,717,264,479,738
could-you-unarmed-beat-mark-zuckerb
Jack774f9
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVtAsHDY12N85Oy4XZwSFJ8P5kDTnOCnqX49lugylPuHf2lSA=s96-c
Could you (unarmed) beat Mark Zuckerberg in a fight?
null
null
null
null
null
waonrhjq3uj
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5 hours left, MrBeast is at 266.1M (we know this exactly) and gaining around 200k per hour. The current estimate of T-Series is around 266.65M, but it’...
Dominic de Bettencourt
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,264,658,710
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
null
0.930356
8,995.281789
YES
null
dtkgnf8n0y8
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "waonrhjq3uj", "label": "dominic", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dominic de Bettencourt
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,264,745,171
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
waonrhjq3uj
0.930356
8,995.281789
YES
null
hsbqur6khb
false
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8d8fzj7roqo", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Tetra
vulhuo33DGFKpFFfliY6
public
contract
1,717,264,933,825
will-paul-christiano-work-at-the-us
Tetraspace
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
Will Paul Christiano work at the US AI Safety Institute at the end of May 2024?
8d8fzj7roqo
0.969707
120.836688
YES
null
3rjhnfasax3
false
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have FINALLY pulled off the \"stay awake 24 hours to reset your sleep\" maneuver. This never works. But this time, it did!", "type": "text"...
Tetra
ezw7mpnfsPAu7b4NcHpx
public
contract
1,717,265,011,525
on-which-days-next-week-will-tetra
Tetraspace
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
On which days next week will Tetra go to sleep around midnight or before?
null
null
null
null
null
vd1xhm0hv9q
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5lumrxjpt3", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
keltan
DGIZAUSacYzUMKMOgeNP
public
contract
1,717,265,295,183
after-flying-out-from-australia-for
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
After flying out from Australia for LessOnline/camp, will me/my non-Rationalist GF be convinced to stay for manifest?
5lumrxjpt3
null
null
null
null
x1ke81s6fhn
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any posts about this by Microsoft?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
keltan
y7Phb3fpaxj92XQN8jnK
public
contract
1,717,265,422,796
will-a-new-dimension-be-added-to-mi
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23?
null
null
null
null
null
rlwletyy02
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
nikki
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,265,511,797
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
2,697.218203
YES
8bca377e66b7
aqryoizq29e
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "IDGN2qwiA2MevY845NrO", "label": "/Soli/will-apple-sell-more-than-1-million", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, ...
Soli ꩜
M7LMKpPtpRDhLmwVinD7
public
contract
1,717,265,650,704
will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will Apple sell 500,000 units of Vision Pro in 2024?
null
0.34
725.992842
YES
null
ncc6xciiqi
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A Wild 300 million loss appears ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks":...
Martin Modrák
UpseGbpY89xbSPkFFtP9
public
contract
1,717,266,651,204
total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6b1bf3d71866
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between May 16th and Jun 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG)
null
null
null
null
null
xrgkzeh7mq
false
gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "DING BETTER LOCK THE F IN", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
KldTouchr87
Sdbxnv5SEeKVRBWmgq6y
public
contract
1,717,266,673,874
who-will-win-the-next-chess-world-c
Kldtouchr87
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c
Who will win the next Chess World Championship match
null
null
268.131972
YES
d670d7852794
534zv1wf6fv
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this was surprisingly close actually—3 of the top 6 IIUC", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Ziddletwix
4a4wZyG8OwmFyXSWMRZL
public
contract
1,717,266,765,346
manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-44e1da24b291
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 13 (May)
null
null
216.525115
YES
d49f3f5b0d48
zs59w1qvrfm
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
Q4pcJPJR0ywWdjidAlwN
public
contract
1,717,266,912,490
will-i-get-demoted-from-masters-lea
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I get demoted from Masters League before July 2nd, 2024?
null
0.41183
4,513.146243
YES
null
66jgaczbqmq
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg
public
contract
1,717,267,082,220
season-13-leagues-bayesian-vs-shank
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Season 13 Leagues: @Bayesian vs @shankypanky [Short Fuse!]
null
null
5,568.295651
YES
nbadj4qlfq
ztksonq93rc
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(leagues ended)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg
public
contract
1,717,267,096,319
season-13-leagues-bayesian-vs-shank
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Season 13 Leagues: @Bayesian vs @shankypanky [Short Fuse!]
66jgaczbqmq
null
5,568.295651
YES
nbadj4qlfq
o9oghirv5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn
public
contract
1,717,267,350,602
who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024?
null
null
1,006.27725
YES
264adbe61dbd
84goatue8w5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1", "label": "Arcmage7000", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Ziddletwix
QkhtfWDaZcHew77lvsW9
public
contract
1,717,267,406,308
will-i-demote-to-platinum-at-the-en
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will I demote to Platinum at the end of this month? (May 2024)
null
0.018263
3,181.121196
NO
null
tj39we3nh6
false
HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Noah
785XgA5NZ5OVZP6qtS6P
public
contract
1,717,267,459,956
will-israel-control-rafah-by-the-en
Noah1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of May?
null
null
null
null
null
zrxssta1qdh
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o9oghirv5", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn
public
contract
1,717,267,489,345
who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024?
o9oghirv5
null
1,030.206458
YES
bd041cd94e5e
g7n0winwyow
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
hD2GxpqNx9EXXZIBNzji
public
contract
1,717,267,492,130
who-will-have-the-most-profit-in-se-1167f5014090
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will have the most Profit in Season 13 of Manifold Leagues in Diamond, Masters, or Silicon?
null
null
8,671.960939
YES
3e39bd9b68fe
ra5r15w6ck
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Ziddletwix
9K6rMmc3WhUuPSQEqT5l
public
contract
1,717,267,504,226
who-will-win-masters-division-in-se
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win Masters division in Season 13 of leagues?
null
null
6,081.491068
YES
5d05e4de31da
z5ekm0mp527
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
m9mYawkiGZdARoVEVMqh
public
contract
1,717,267,534,994
who-will-win-masters-league-season-09b8064c0d3d
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win Masters League Season 13 (May)?
null
null
2,394.532098
YES
1f28508d8c7d
jtzg5yac2l
false
V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "market failure (that this wasn't predicted despite 70+ traders)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Jono
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,267,538,466
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Jono3h
https://firebasestorage.…665-d33d645b1716
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
null
0.955343
839.403677
NO
null
gqmiornwyx7
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What about “Jonathan”?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
N.C. Young
uXAscPxSyspYj0QEZ9FY
public
contract
1,717,267,593,619
manifest-multiperson-mixer-bingo
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Manifest Multi-Person Mixer Bingo!
null
null
60.302125
YES
aacb270ea428
3d2a0mh8h6
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2", "label": "Lorxus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
21Aa4HWnJtyO2mIJlXRg
public
contract
1,717,267,634,878
will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark-10ad7f4636a6
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S13?
null
0.104382
367.329373
NO
null
14hi0oorlcr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2", "label": "Lorxus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
cYgSSBBibRtc9LattnKp
public
contract
1,717,267,645,385
will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark-66eccaf9dab9
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain in Diamond at the end of S13?
null
0.104382
367.329373
NO
null
e5utzix1ki8
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "label": "HenriThunberg", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Ziddletwix
HZN2VUAXKTGTNgKGOr3s
public
contract
1,717,267,722,392
who-will-make-it-to-june-2024-maste
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will make it to June 2024 Masters league?
null
null
160.785237
YES
096b503d9792
ky6zr2q5krm
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "17 total responses. Net scores for each option:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { ...
Plasma Ballin'
LqzADMn2AhcUOatt8iCI
public
contract
1,717,267,724,851
holy-fucking-shit-what-type-of-mark
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Holy😇 fucking🍆 shit💩! What type of market are there too many of?
null
null
104.856614
NO
7d7afe83bd1a
8p7jjtowj4h
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mpyyqkkss1a", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827
public
contract
1,717,267,770,758
will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement?
xjxtlv0r2g
null
null
null
null
dk9pc951ezu
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ky6zr2q5krm", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
LqzADMn2AhcUOatt8iCI
public
contract
1,717,267,991,341
holy-fucking-shit-what-type-of-mark
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Holy😇 fucking🍆 shit💩! What type of market are there too many of?
ky6zr2q5krm
null
104.856614
NO
7d7afe83bd1a
36pxwjn17fe
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "label": "mirrorbot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Fion
kzgDEalRfiAMJ40Er34V
public
contract
1,717,268,036,090
metaculus-will-rishi-sunak-be-prime
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
[Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
null
0.991515
5,145.533712
YES
null
49f192tun4a
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you add orange?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P0qLJg4CpytSNhACu8Oa
public
contract
1,717,268,045,218
predominant-color-of-trumps-suit-at
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Predominant color of Trump's suit at the debate on June 27
null
null
null
null
null
di376s92l88
false
ENjSHoCXnRNEBJPZsNi7zaGGoJT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Vaibhav Gupta
8vdHPrqDNDeoEKOqwG9N
public
contract
1,717,268,181,171
who-will-be-the-next-chess-player-t-266fa6b12d16
VaibhavGupta
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb-2zG9DyM1Oj2hEcbvj1CpBg2v9yA0bzHFTD-j=s96-c
Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical)
null
null
1,638.682412
YES
0511249f09d4
qp3bw4tld9s
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
TAjtnx0H4pZPCQNmTGR5
public
contract
1,717,268,218,269
in-march-41-of-newly-created-market
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?
null
0.038665
6,576.162726
NO
null
ltxcw3qd34p
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qp3bw4tld9s", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
TAjtnx0H4pZPCQNmTGR5
public
contract
1,717,268,248,239
in-march-41-of-newly-created-market
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?
qp3bw4tld9s
0.038665
6,576.162726
NO
null
p7zlyhks7p
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jkalazenw6", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
4ZDLcHNBZNaYstKp6gPB
public
contract
1,717,268,366,494
will-any-jordanian-citizens-die-by
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will any Jordanian citizens die by Israeli or Iranian strikes before June 1st?
jkalazenw6
null
null
null
null
6qwta2c06p9
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4grlmh2gptj", "label": "SirSalty", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jim
VaUvbmkfMf6IRM9aotT6
public
contract
1,717,268,407,576
will-usdt-ever-unpeg-to-less-than-0
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
Will USDT ever un-peg to less than 0.9 USD (90 cents)?
4grlmh2gptj
0.698378
210.14426
NO
null
abvi298f6os
false
iqqOmBcHRTOl4aioSWFmn59xkwl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jtzg5yac2l", "label": "Jono3h", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Eric
5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC
public
contract
1,717,268,484,140
will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m
Shifbru
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLd6GPm0Dli1vymkoPadzweMIXwL4jA34xzFTBVPtCfXqc=s96-c
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
jtzg5yac2l
0.906706
5,692.128777
YES
null
q2v5f8s9737
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Plasma Ballin'
KirHKDDIxjpIeOtxxhD0
public
contract
1,717,268,508,317
which-political-party-does-manifold
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which political party does Manifold think Donald Trump would run as?
null
null
24.702264
YES
7862d53ca2f3
2woj97vcgco
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dahyikq7zdh", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,268,542,359
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
dahyikq7zdh
null
null
null
null
x1104puionl
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Plasma Ballin'
pcpHK6maQlVoZmBrKTNl
public
contract
1,717,268,566,150
which-political-party-does-manifold-3dfa4d529638
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which political party does Manifold think Joe Biden would run as?
null
null
12.390482
YES
89a301f173ca
7lsv13c7ypv
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, ...
Noit
nOiUjcHna4nrqgLmwhdz
public
contract
1,717,268,576,363
will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-53eabaecdbdf
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
null
0.394942
2,674.782059
NO
null
yest3dhpsvm
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Second date scheduled for Sunday, tomorrow, going to go clothes shopping and then private karaoke. She seems to really like me ", "type": "te...
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,268,611,534
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
ouyno8q5kx
null
null
null
null
z4gjsops8c9
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "what rocket", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
rVelFlL0vgWxc1KGUFQ8
public
contract
1,717,268,679,190
will-the-rocket-explode
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
WILL THE ROCKET EXPLODE
null
null
null
null
null
75bo9h2g5z3
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw
public
contract
1,717,268,718,877
will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I have a girlfriend in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
sm0y9y17x3i
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nominees have been selected!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Plasma Ballin'
LJzMjzxI3hgPe4tAwGJP
public
contract
1,717,268,726,326
which-political-party-would-you-vot
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which political party would you vote for?
null
null
null
null
null
y8f4uhan1k8
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p7zlyhks7p", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Panfilo
4ZDLcHNBZNaYstKp6gPB
public
contract
1,717,268,726,893
will-any-jordanian-citizens-die-by
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will any Jordanian citizens die by Israeli or Iranian strikes before June 1st?
jkalazenw6
0.022701
1,887.469829
NO
null
u3whfczzpfb
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How's it going?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
A6yrdjMnA3nglCqVgHrg
public
contract
1,717,268,773,077
will-i-enter-a-relationship-in-2024
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I enter a relationship in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null