Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.9639204303231449
Ic6PDj3SnuMS3Ei8hEQK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9639204303231449
if-mantic-monetizes-by-selling
7702.508092389213
{"NO": 771.8292043364851, "YES": 5005.662703274302}
If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?
1400
1646765181175
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 749, "YES": 5293}
0
4.623451981716947
True
play
YES
public
1640887166951
Manifold
Background: Mantic Markets is exploring different monetization options for its current play-money offering. One idea that has been proposed is to simply sell the platform's virtual currency, Mantic Dollars, for real money. For instance, a user could top up their balance by buying M$ 500 for $5 USD. This would not only help make Mantic Markets a financially sustainable business but would also solve the biggest problem with play-money markets: ensuring an adequate amount of monetary scarcity such that people take their betting seriously. Resolves YES if Mantic Markets introduces the option for users to purchase Mantic Dollars with real money (either in the form of a direct purchase or through a monthly subscription) and keeps it running for at least 60 days. Resolves NO if Mantic Markets introduces a M$ purchase option and removes it from the platform within 60 days. Resolves N/A if Mantic Markets does not introduce a M$ purchase option by April 1, 2022. Tags: #ManticMarkets Update: Mantic Markets is now Manifold Markets. An M$ purchase option has also been introduced. #ManifoldMarkets
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1135.0959253165502, "YES": 5867.086386549317}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1646765181175
100
Manifold
1640887166951
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
59
1715657911360
0
1
1645144464830
0.9639204303231449
0.17830685970112506
iaRIkIARIpBAwUwPlaJn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
will-chicago-have-more-than-12-inch
1799.2897230672913
{"NO": 725.759420943642, "YES": 314.95085598906655}
Will Chicago have more than 12 inches of total snow in December of 2021?
399.9999999999999
1656547200000
R5X2iRiwPrbMDo2XjPj6hyqSrdx1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 47.84920985977652, "YES": 152.15079014022348}
{"NO": 936, "YES": 413.9999999999999}
0
4.730943356451142
True
play
NO
public
1640888810257
Michael Ward
As measured by "Snow, Ice Pellets, Hail (in)" of the NOAA Chicago O'Hare station? https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094846/detail
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1112.514246926914, "YES": 518.2445889674483}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 59.999999999999986, "YES": 190.78784028338913}
0
1680902506572
100
MichaelWard
1680902507178
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMgOkCbr3GmASEiRUU2WzaFTRt_3Lj3ldV6rb-=s96-c
4
1650314723462
0
1
6
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779951047}]
["please-resolve"]
1680902503890
0.18
0.030187649366064752
Y3ajaQlTZixE66z18IWv
{"NO": 964.4268968995981, "YES": 2059.621352064635}
0.014366108537895526
will-pete-buttigieg-be-the-2024-dem
60546.36121421686
{"NO": 3225.329585839228, "YES": 438.6130953265098}
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic nominee?
0
1735689600000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 113.2274552438981, "YES": 86.7725447561019}
{"NO": 3231, "YES": 410}
0.3872623217345234
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1640895153499
James
Never bet against talent! #Politics #2024
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003747064632577894}
0
{"NO": 3658.240631294145, "YES": 1243.9166076883498}
{"creatorFee": 26.284869827784675, "platformFee": 0.3662169320890223, "liquidityFee": 1.5406292815444147}
{"NO": 158.7450786638754, "YES": 121.65525060596443}
0
1000
JamesGrugett
1719731238052
1.6
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
119
1650314635746
1
1
87
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492240}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1665573579252}]
["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.16558679415794217
1719731234641
1667083317854
0.26810306519345184
mwGI1p9qI34G0ZdLVN7b
{"NO": 150.0396212874091, "YES": 3464.6222256299748}
0
at-the-end-of-its-ipo-day-will-redd
3709.4816337928187
{"NO": 50, "YES": 87}
At the end of its IPO day, will Reddit's market cap be above $15 billion?
0
1712974162312
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 87}
5.488670961069634e-16
1.8482202446120044
True
play
NO
public
1640895285845
Dwaxe
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source will be Google Finance (https://www.google.com/search?q=reddit+stock)", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01561588209611263}
0
{"NO": 208.5665361461421, "YES": 264.70549673174526}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1712974162312
415
Dwaxe
1712974162312
0.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c
23
1650314750310
0
11
13
[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104462042}]
["internet"]
0.0981201893337911
1711060461508
1712974155284
0.02
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
0.7503754274472256
pz4dHnKYn49woBUK83Mq
{"NO": 26829.272386071527, "YES": 1973.2148671343693}
0.9761176864092389
will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
1898943.2247559105
{"NO": 621.8477432292182, "YES": 541}
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
0
1735689600000
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 630, "YES": 541}
0.22723039355568966
3.423958035696701
False
basic
public
1640896475037
BCG
BINARY
{"day": -0.004969973780298287, "week": -0.002776317868835143, "month": 0.004953115703110744}
0
{"NO": 972.9930915825652, "YES": 954.2737631086668}
{"creatorFee": 297.8950243641098, "platformFee": 104.46927402163732, "liquidityFee": 18.983993930111403}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
1213.1825123563758
4199.928447853126
BruceGrugett
1720241025145
7
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
41
1933
1650314768797
4
1
174
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438924}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1665573579252}, {"name": "2024 GOP Primaries", "slug": "2024-gop-primaries", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "mwL1bEUy5R4QtlycizAr", "createdTime": 1675834556357}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181862069}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181890573}, {"name": "Gerontocracy", "slug": "gerontocracy", "groupId": "347c27dc-85ba-4c23-b745-f06653bf2de0", "createdTime": 1696127618173}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1704319904865}]
["magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-gop-primaries", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "gerontocracy", "politics-default"]
0.3782521645317131
1720241021710
1713986980991
False
0.3963577237865599
w57CGHpDwySwUGHuoCDS
{"NO": 87.68921833452262, "YES": 1367.4850834629374}
0
will-republicans-win-enough-seats-i
9433.619979265683
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
Will Republicans win enough seats in the US Senate in the 2022 election to have a majority
0
1668388019207
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
0
2.0368720611351256
True
play
NO
public
1640896601901
BCG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 241.66091947189145}
{"creatorFee": 3.191733684652041, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1668388019207
420
BruceGrugett
1668383197628
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
29
1650314804981
0
1
26
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983495}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666048112715}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181870089}]
["us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"]
1668383197462
1662146118806
False
0.04040358444314965
0.6144000000000001
WDaHDQ0I7NZ5EF0IYb05
{"NO": 7.683854723515367, "YES": 500.5127808665313}
0
will-redditcomrslatestarcodex-have-
458.9653074966154
{"NO": 10, "YES": 40}
Will reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex have more than 50k members by July 1, 2022?
0
1656633600000
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 40}
0
4.769385236962333
True
play
NO
public
1640899415478
Dwaxe
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 155.24174696260025, "YES": 195.95917942265427}
{"creatorFee": 4.38757887867558, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1656963928981
100
Dwaxe
1656663143919
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c
7
1650314622086
0
1
1656627248039
1656663140004
0.023877157867569346
0.04223585391716059
TmV1rvprg5OUDe9EzO2Y
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04223585391716059
will-bitcoin-be-worth-less-than-400
6944.558811460082
{"NO": 3271, "YES": 672.4411885399171}
Will Bitcoin be worth less than $40,000 at some point before Jan 10, 2022 at 12 am GMT?
540
1641816082556
5gi7plWzGAPbSSyOFv85PRD7eHw1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 3271, "YES": 2173}
0
4.627119203251018
True
play
NO
public
1640955168485
Peter Hroššo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 4053.265716823524, "YES": 851.1702334009325}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641816082556
100
PeterHroššo
1640955168485
0
https://firebasestorage.…ee2-d5566e9974e5
18
1715658214388
0
1641797318359
0.12635463445129594
TaJBJOSpaVAKllWK8Q9Y
{"NO": 120.67917523143909, "YES": 1893.7508810528263}
0
will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requir
5823.971188513722
{"NO": 451, "YES": 255.99017540744546}
Will there be a federal mask requirement in place on domestic flights as of Nov. 8, 2022?
0
1667865600000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 451, "YES": 256}
0
4.835728764268837
True
play
NO
public
1640966349327
James
This question is from Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1476930984931168276 Nov 8th, 2022 is election day!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 732.3429260828965, "YES": 535.0747769255902}
{"creatorFee": 4.977648763135053, "platformFee": 0.22276984544871253, "liquidityFee": 1.336619072692275}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1668301224477
201.33661907269226
JamesGrugett
1668171802417
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
43
1650314605855
0
2
43
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601091}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529488348}]
["politics-default", "medicine"]
1667862000413
1668171800232
0.009132320534260056
0.8734514574366327
KKCOIqiDyBuJGxfYCZPt
{"NO": 326.12875009625515, "YES": 95.71154261271826}
1
will-emmanuel-macron-win-the-2022-f
2185
{"NO": 35, "YES": 282}
Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French Presidential election?
0
1650892304537
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 35, "YES": 282}
0
5.958597976639192
True
play
YES
public
1640967494922
Andrew Hartman
The date of the final round is 24 April 2022, so the market will resolve that day so long as there is a clear vote majority for one of the candidates, or sooner if the deadline to register candidacy passes without Macron having declared.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 186.82879863661276, "YES": 482.0622366458506}
{"creatorFee": 5.8336668611045415, "platformFee": 0.9722778101840903, "liquidityFee": 5.8336668611045415}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1650892304537
105.83366686110455
AndrewHartman
1640967494922
0
https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039
26
1650314532847
0
1
1650892349759
0.959214180361062
0.9222084360034976
drXsS3Ut7FMQjqk6pQQU
{"NO": 440.0850539757033, "YES": 88.25013849274808}
1
will-james-webb-space-telescope-dep
1561.4874253195494
{"NO": 9.999999999999943, "YES": 399.5125746804507}
Will James Webb Space Telescope deploy successfully and send its first images back before Aug 1st, 2022?
0
1659312000000
wp7d8QkgPFRO0wnQIDHctbPAMrX2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 405}
0
9.594866586694948
True
play
YES
public
1640972774608
Dano Wall
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JWST successfully deploys all layers of its sun shield, aligns its mirrors, and begins sending back its first images to Earth on or before August 1st, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 170.00000000000003, "YES": 585.3251905510236}
{"creatorFee": 1.0145803001011386, "platformFee": 0.024908568951112785, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1663706157955
100
DanoWall
1663706163772
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GghttZCZ3f_rzJkjpRlL2MgnfCx-R7kOb3npMWDasM=s96-c
18
1650314684258
0
1
20
[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659590679784}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779956909}]
["space", "please-resolve"]
1659311053303
1663706161405
0.9833659743945963
0.6511627906976742
CqMYJMBZ6zpQB2Ue1pAE
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6511627906976742
will-at-least-one-person-coming-to-
15
{"NO": 5, "YES": 10}
Will at least one person coming to my NYE party test positive for covid?
0
1641073913389
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
{"NO": 5, "YES": 10}
0
4.82377444797945
True
play
NO
public
1640997075853
Austin
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 126.98425099200298, "YES": 173.4935157289747}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
0
1641073913389
100
Austin
1640997075853
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
2
1715657771557
0
0.11135145598936068
dbqDp4mV1NkG8IfRZNbV
{"NO": 902.7264208471731, "YES": 1831.8979679701104}
0.05815665414343651
hillary-clinton-signals-in-any-way-
3197.905948232426
{"NO": 396.53298428219796, "YES": 210}
Hillary Clinton signals in any way she might run for president in 2024
0
1735689600000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 402, "YES": 210}
0
10.175968844280288
False
basic
public
1641003914971
Lars Doucet
If she says she's "considering it" or "forming an exploratory committee", that counts. If "aids close to her" say "it's a possibility", that counts. If she says she "hasn't ruled it out", that counts. If she announces her candidacy obviously that counts. If she's asked about it and she's evasive and doesn't really say anything, that doesn't count. #USA #Politics
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009508142864388731}
0
{"NO": 665.30365516181, "YES": 455.92378876681136}
{"creatorFee": 8.189785157404804, "platformFee": 0.628245145793584, "liquidityFee": 1.3894260643283918}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1000
LarsDoucet
1719568512647
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
0
63
1650314682814
1
1
45
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496625}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529581784}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867074}]
["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "global-macro", "us-politics"]
1719568509575
1679088676428
False
0.039712214400660646
Dnug9up3xRKzvKT4qnkr
{"NO": 724.220446234139, "YES": 2167.1566011129016}
0
will-we-discover-life-on-mars-befor
3676.0700044003142
{"NO": 606.4076053277743, "YES": 6}
Will we discover life on Mars before 2024?
0
1704067200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 608, "YES": 6}
0
3.133658587828206
True
play
NO
public
1641003990032
Lars Doucet
If we later discover that the life was imported from Earth (say a microbe or a tardigrade on a rover), that still counts because it's life that's on Mars. If Elon gets a person onto Mars before 2024 that also counts. #Mars #Space #Aliens
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 797.6943757844225, "YES": 153.91491167625315}
{"creatorFee": 1.6226758582150134, "platformFee": 0.004924128266283105, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1704125609955
760
LarsDoucet
1704125610617
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
1
72
1650313857382
0
1
42
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529525282}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659590679789}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128677472}]
["science-default", "space", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
1702845528262
0.01
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
0.8757357642330255
bHeZCXv8d7MGlllEnExT
{"NO": 246.4958760152943, "YES": 171.8057552058325}
1
will-the-median-rent-for-a-1bedroom
1268.5252714759613
{"NO": 11, "YES": 250.8561162787559}
Will the median rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco be higher in 2022 than it was in 2021?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 11, "YES": 253}
0
4.0803592174206225
True
play
YES
public
1641004196471
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 CT, the median rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco is higher than it was at the end of 2021. #USA #Housing #California
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 172.75705484870946, "YES": 428.329396777872}
{"creatorFee": 0.127102197043637, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672977045471
180
LarsDoucet
1672977044272
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
24
1650314664269
0
2
24
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495245}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529572054}]
["politics-default", "economics-default"]
1670081742250
1672977038798
0.91
0.8027527571343284
BzGPwkB5Zz8SKQqdRzmo
{"NO": 954.2789543071857, "YES": 111.34993342448904}
1
will-the-homicide-rate-in-2022-rema
2172.568913224387
{"NO": 41.446244026400166, "YES": 108.55375597359983}
Will the homicide rate in 2022 remain above 6 per 100,000 people?
0
1701491441926
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 40, "YES": 110}
0
3.373047537016877
True
play
YES
public
1641025249984
Jasper Day
US homicides increased in 2020 to 6/100,000 for the first time in over 20 years. It seems like 2021 is on track to meet or exceed that number. Many have cited COVID-19 and the George Floyd protests as possible reasons for the increase in homicides; as these causes recede in 2022, will the homicides decrease with them? The source will be FBI homicide data for the country, which seems to be released on roughly a 1 year lag. Expect this market to resolve fully around September 2023.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 177.76388834631177, "YES": 301.49626863362676}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1701491441926
200
JasperDay
1701490147645
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
13
1650313844106
0
1
11
[]
[]
1701490147519
1701488828305
0.97
0.15833279823829907
RlihOHe5nrKxFG4nqEXk
{"NO": 118.78546804613713, "YES": 126.62558455773537}
0
will-fbi-statistics-show-homicides-
577.7000185065714
{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}
Will FBI statistics show homicides in excess of 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2021?
0
1672531200000
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}
0
4.549085581381255
True
play
NO
public
1641025554397
Jasper Day
US homicides spiked in 2020 to over 6 per 100,000, an increase of over 30% year on year (source: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020). If 2021 saw a similar increase, homicides could be as high as 7 or 8 per 100,000. Alternately, 2021 might have seen a similar number. This question will resolve when official FBI statistics are reported on, likely around September 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 229.128784747792, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
0
1689815834936
120
JasperDay
1689815842198
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
4
1650314592706
0
41
5
1670081749186
1689815838917
0.15
0.5049627484468205
np6hZO6G9L1bszEdJQvp
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5049627484468205
test-email-on-market-resolution
1
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1}
Test email on market resolution
0
1641078377093
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1}
0
4.8367741249943155
True
play
YES
public
1641078351370
James
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 142.83206922816737}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641078377093
100
JamesGrugett
1641078351370
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
1
1715658663353
0
0.4950372515531794
x9kX9CSbtUUR8EUYYaB6
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4950372515531794
test-email-on-market-resolution-2
1
{"NO": 1, "YES": 0}
Test email on market resolution 2
0
1641080200792
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 1, "YES": 0}
0
4.8367741249943155
True
play
YES
public
1641080164539
James
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 142.83206922816737, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641080200792
100
JamesGrugett
1641080164539
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
1
1715658905760
0
0.6527777777777778
nreFHWsN6PloabDTN6BK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6527777777777778
test-everything-working
40
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
Test everything working?
0
1641086241382
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
0
4.804004003587409
True
play
YES
public
1641086169469
James
Yo
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 193.9071942966532}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641086241382
100
JamesGrugett
1641086169469
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
2
1715658665992
0
0.6930084101725339
2Syd0hmX4Vpw9B8uW3w6
{"NO": 929.1832016186917, "YES": 37.57265233375817}
1
will-ethereum-switch-to-proof-of-st
6573.975166345798
{"NO": 968.0000000000002, "YES": 1424.2450881768787}
Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?
20
1663249597636
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 968, "YES": 1455}
0
2.849463337429558
True
play
YES
public
1641089473260
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, the Ethereum blockchain has effectively migrated to a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm #Crypto #Blockchain
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1670.3303638580992, "YES": 1981.5898808327938}
{"creatorFee": 43.14749357414482, "platformFee": 2.231250219776807, "liquidityFee": 12.552616972562388}
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
0
1663249597636
111.12067893941872
LarsDoucet
1663296133411
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
80
1650313779648
0
1
78
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1663281164918}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529563711}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665695008156}]
["economics-default", "crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap"]
1663237205407
1663296128870
0.9824026209281129
0.4606671032503424
fjWUTZHVcxh31Fh1bLQN
{"NO": 58.99984646965359, "YES": 3798.928680694408}
0
democrats-lose-both-houses-of-congr
17651.20425531615
{"NO": 81, "YES": 193.33674220533783}
Democrats lose both houses of Congress in 2022
0
1669831775927
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 81, "YES": 194}
0
2.200203419533781
True
play
NO
public
1641091434766
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 240.43275675984097, "YES": 408.88560072816966}
{"creatorFee": 9.610734183844338, "platformFee": 0.7080071853698462, "liquidityFee": 4.208247644539348}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1669831775927
464.20824764453937
Manifold
1669648203095
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
122
1650314702529
0
1
85
[{"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522363261}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929568}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101188}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529498520}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668340092626}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861090}]
["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "global-macro", "mattyglesias2022", "please-resolve", "us-politics"]
1669648202903
1668802410126
False
0.013091723404834762
0.7432986763887548
5Leq2qdLAwF8bRfUus22
{"NO": 4419.812758666218, "YES": 710.0264651781732}
1
nancy-pelosi-announces-retirement-p
19151.50015131686
{"NO": 79, "YES": 35}
Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans in 2022
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 64, "YES": 10}
0
0.47948796496704427
True
basic
YES
public
1641091435131
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 204.48960853794014, "YES": 182.37324365158392}
{"creatorFee": 0.8059831557136581, "platformFee": 0.07288257207345121, "liquidityFee": 0.4372954324407072}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1672603787218
1520.4372954324408
Manifold
1672609649648
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
90
1650313800395
0
1
75
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529469993}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522484651}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861082}]
["politics-default", "mattyglesias2022", "us-politics"]
1672529567914
1672609646444
False
0.95
0.9438188856746087
exisq0oaRgxdD0dhPLSC
{"NO": 1557.4910836853637, "YES": 179.7962796617096}
1
joe-biden-is-still-president-at-the
9336.661162220618
{"NO": 117.54374971415109, "YES": 1262.2481795852623}
Joe Biden is still president at the end of 2022
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 118, "YES": 1258}
0
7.937569956927497
True
play
YES
public
1641091435333
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #President #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 467.7833461192346, "YES": 1508.94707692916}
{"creatorFee": 11.691390545967202, "platformFee": 0.4408980923979291, "liquidityFee": 2.603495155804122}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1672604017013
202.60349515580413
Manifold
1671397776868
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
139
1650314695082
0
1
128
[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856963}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497751}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522554735}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861081}]
["politics-default", "global-macro", "the-life-of-biden", "mattyglesias2022", "us-politics"]
1671397776771
1668561833301
False
0.99
0.9391055272725196
ViC944UUPDPaYy9gN0bh
{"NO": 570.5459755734432, "YES": 203.03852994179704}
1
no-military-conflict-between-the-pr
2521.083364681049
{"NO": 107.04778974392059, "YES": 669.4525201946947}
No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan in 2022
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 106, "YES": 671}
0
3.9409540078176817
True
play
YES
public
1641091435531
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Taiwan #China #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 319.93562880840983, "YES": 922.6017823141134}
{"creatorFee": 5.716493279282755, "platformFee": 0.03363398646260536, "liquidityFee": 0.12840853433526353}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1672604260623
220.12840853433528
Manifold
1672261822288
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
49
1650314619002
0
1
44
[{"name": "Pelosi Taiwan visit", "slug": "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "uB4QeEnBjdn9XyvGRCzR", "createdTime": 1659376428687}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ", "slug": "pacific-rim", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qlbzTuOA4oc125E1ZoiB", "createdTime": 1659006734543}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950084253}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560803}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522594192}]
["china", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "mattyglesias2022"]
1672261822157
1645826836639
0.98
0.8764266241194699
1lwr5zVQe3ZDzfygK7Mv
{"NO": 904.325021833713, "YES": 73.61404803801491}
1
emmanuel-macron-reelected-in-2022
5325.349369868035
{"NO": 432.40485683854695, "YES": 3323.5232483557106}
Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022
0
1650837030749
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 444, "YES": 3337}
0
7.062904015640502
True
play
YES
public
1641091435773
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #France #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1391.013142397592, "YES": 3703.302527628954}
{"creatorFee": 1.3023045657512646, "platformFee": 0.3159509716853506, "liquidityFee": 0.11550203702958708}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1650837030749
100.05588749625615
Manifold
1641091435773
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
49
1650313775107
0
1
[{"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522674648}]
["mattyglesias2022"]
1649682677630
0.9886527846828137
0.7397222222222223
uZamECynZMU4gKE0LofR
{"NO": 777.7545649417673, "YES": 48.59025715848251}
1
liz-cheney-loses-primary-in-2022
1705.2603050025828
{"NO": 16, "YES": 24}
Liz Cheney loses primary in 2022
0
1661146960203
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 16, "YES": 24}
0
4.4580408379764815
True
play
YES
public
1641091436182
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 122.44182292011173, "YES": 206.41705355905066}
{"creatorFee": 6.687739765629748, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1661146960203
100
Manifold
1661148379334
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
19
1650314795900
0
1
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510115}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522718152}]
["politics-default", "mattyglesias2022"]
1660936870190
1661148372339
0.9784904344998783
0.44526671227244075
u1wRqeN0FqWtel4oIrEx
{"NO": 7044.057534672122, "YES": 152.25302196912318}
1
china-officially-abandons-covid-zer
124870.6169611346
{"NO": 76, "YES": 193}
China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 76, "YES": 193}
0
0.7018015637891484
True
basic
YES
public
1641091436438
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #China #Covid #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 267.19281427463574, "YES": 385.44649434130287}
{"creatorFee": 16.847714113872538, "platformFee": 0.45338954918953966, "liquidityFee": 2.720337295137238}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1672604164101
1753.2482218251248
Manifold
1672531185207
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
10
563
1650314792628
0
1
407
[{"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522755542}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601082}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561598}, {"name": "Zero Covid", "slug": "zero-covid", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "iK2RFHGRKiw0isbLemIR", "createdTime": 1669046010298}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1687041473920}]
["china", "medicine", "mattyglesias2022", "zero-covid", "asia"]
1672531185013
1672241518875
0.97
0.8620252830838584
E5VagZO4cFtfHiLjeKs2
{"NO": 701.0946697261061, "YES": 120.83052380579228}
1
november-2022-yearonyear-cpi-growth
1022.0795651566928
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
November 2022 year-on-year CPI growth is above 4%
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
0
4.525091673954965
True
play
YES
public
1641091436583
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Economics #CPI #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 213.5415650406262}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1672604230039
160
Manifold
1672256569548
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
10
1650313859487
0
1
10
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566780}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522814893}]
["economics-default", "mattyglesias2022"]
1672256569407
0.97
0.27959770831907915
SPs0zU6IRrVl9Wx5URzZ
{"NO": 113.7706876679692, "YES": 2207.7423192030024}
0
democrats-go-down-at-least-one-gove
16051.012045885484
{"NO": 0, "YES": 60}
Democrats go down at least one governor on net in 2022
0
1670254115516
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 60}
0
2.3173012364028107
True
play
NO
public
1641091436744
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 227.156333832011}
{"creatorFee": 0.8356281316162528, "platformFee": 0.02148732797151561, "liquidityFee": 0.12892396782909368}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1670254115516
840.1289239678291
Manifold
1670200214179
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
33
1650314597912
0
1
24
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668340074146}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1668258730337}, {"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522879363}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487334}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1668467086927}]
["politics-default", "mattyglesias2022", "free-money", "please-resolve", "us-2022-midterms"]
1670200212886
1668675817344
0.01960830909091357
0.09598089635271599
KUgz1XuwqlmZoRVj7kxv
{"NO": 154.8558733862849, "YES": 1627.6839082715323}
0
the-unemployment-rate-stays-between
2728.316133474409
{"NO": 210, "YES": 2.480302560013172}
The unemployment rate stays between 4 and 5% in 2022
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 210, "YES": 0}
0
5.237520314578941
True
play
NO
public
1641091436934
Manifold
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Economics #Unemployment #2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 377.014588577153, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
{"creatorFee": 0.6515271488328503, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1672604171235
200
Manifold
1671140572625
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
16
1650314535183
0
1
14
[{"name": "#MattYglesias2022", "slug": "mattyglesias2022", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4gOp7kdY055Z1ivxTU65", "createdTime": 1667522898791}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568600}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1670975203760}]
["economics-default", "mattyglesias2022", "free-money"]
1671140572487
1665686131224
0.01
0.4523789025959306
TBSNFG9xj2kqpyO9xcqr
{"NO": 54.010152740207424, "YES": 272.4536047405432}
0
will-there-be-a-2022-sarscov2-varia
712.0642924492249
{"NO": 5, "YES": 50.00000000000003}
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
0
1672531200000
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
{"NO": 5, "YES": 50}
0
2.8872159684571583
True
play
NO
public
1641101337831
Jasper Day
This market will resolve positive if, some time before the end of the year in 2022, the WHO lists on its website (https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) a variant of concern titled "Upsilon". Otherwise it will resolve negative. Jan 2, 12:28am: For clarity - it need not necessarily be a "variant of concern." Any variant will do, as long as it's titled "Upsilon."
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 173.42145196024626, "YES": 186.94919095839919}
{"creatorFee": 2.6382000830771357, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
0
1680825410997
120
JasperDay
1680825422682
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
14
1650314602816
0
20
13
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071755}]
["please-resolve"]
1670531232391
1680825419963
0.14
0.8677685950413223
ceTfXracdRrm1EDStdJI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8677685950413223
is-omicron-less-lethal-than-delta
75
{"NO": 0, "YES": 75}
Is Omicron less lethal than Delta?
0
1648834096103
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 75}
0
4.781895349896914
True
play
YES
public
1641103504331
Jack
I'll probably resolve similar to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/ but accept sufficiently strong indirect evidence as well - there's concern over there that it may be hard to get definitive evidence.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 256.1737691489899}
{"creatorFee": 0.026417037770868318, "platformFee": 0.0066042594427170795, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1648834096103
100
jack
1641103504331
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
3
1715658437961
0
1
0.8677685950413223
0.7288367163879595
QiD0zGfTZLcCeyGbEvX8
{"NO": 10361.81934113441, "YES": 17.789272286256164}
1
us-authorizes-another-covid-booster
11346.221087425263
{"NO": 152.31065659243404, "YES": 434.4682559823026}
US authorizes another Covid booster shot for general population in 2022
0
1662147105909
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 110, "YES": 435}
0
4.908371185630736
True
play
YES
public
1641103953897
Jack
Here "general population" means adults in general, not just seniors or those with comorbidities
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 409.7020655487928, "YES": 671.6883762261616}
{"creatorFee": 2.1952771360637136, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1662147105909
100
jack
1662147095373
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
21
1650314583878
0
1
23
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601087}]
["medicine"]
1662147094555
1662147088766
0.9400909817532783
0.8741816392660808
P84pZO8AStQruwRzxtcs
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8741816392660808
google-us-employees-working-more-fr
802.2444152230689
{"NO": 60, "YES": 399.7555847769311}
Google US employees working more from office than home at some point in 2022
0
1649230065614
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 411}
0
4.688118390938253
True
play
YES
public
1641104103335
Jack
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 233.66642891095844, "YES": 616.9906252483503}
{"creatorFee": 1.978100477080659, "platformFee": 0.49452511927016474, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1649230065614
100
jack
1641104103335
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
13
1715658102816
0
1
1649230059118
0.8741816392660808
0.08109450208098243
eAXsf8cPoZfnjHvYiGvS
{"NO": 268.9604757567761, "YES": 993.498437308852}
0
fullselfdriving-robotaxis-generally
1777.797779780563
{"NO": 577.3862760238767, "YES": 60}
Full-self-driving robo-taxis generally available in at least 10 major US cities by end of 2023
0
1704067200000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 590, "YES": 60}
0
3.7420413194121283
True
play
NO
public
1641104494817
Jack
Currently Waymo is publicly available in Phoenix (which does count), and available only in a tiny closed beta in San Francisco (which does not count). Here I'll define "major cities" as the top 100 cities by population. Jan 2, 10:12am: "Full-self-driving" will mean no human driver is required, however limitations like geofencing are allowed.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 799.0709297048974, "YES": 250.4025250944707}
{"creatorFee": 1.6605286953850964, "platformFee": 0.10415487467455387, "liquidityFee": 0.46688474631960963}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1704096730027
300.4668847463196
jack
1704096730442
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
34
1650314688020
0
1
28
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1658529588073}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039683}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129320106}]
["ai", "selfdriving-vehicles", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
1698903006035
1649348383051
0.02
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
0.06797275136938657
weCExyHsCoNl0PxT01AH
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.06797275136938657
will-marginal-revolution-post-about
579.3860462520848
{"NO": 476.72025573624137, "YES": 31.893698011673763}
Will Marginal Revolution post about Mantic Markets before the end of January?
0
1644191547770
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 481, "YES": 33}
0
4.6832561814312745
True
play
NO
public
1641104529971
Jasper Day
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the regular top posters link to Mantic Markets, either in one of the links posts or in a full top-level post, by 11:59 PM UTC on January 31, 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 684.1069535478957, "YES": 184.74688509869236}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1644191547770
100
JasperDay
1641104529971
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
12
1715658887670
0
0.06797275136938657
0.7152011391954433
eeVcGs3N69RydATkz2e5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7152011391954433
will-the-official-burning-man-be-an
65
{"NO": 0, "YES": 65}
Will the official Burning Man be an in-person event in 2022?
0
1645173348881
5gi7plWzGAPbSSyOFv85PRD7eHw1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 65}
0
4.787664358140534
True
play
CANCEL
public
1641110379388
Peter Hroššo
Feb 18, 9:31am: Sorry, this market was created before the market expiration feature was introduced, and closed now for no reason. I have no other option than resolving it, so will do as N/A (returning bets to traders with no fees)
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PeterHroššo
1641110379388
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in-us-pandemic-fades-away-to-predel
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In US, pandemic fades away to pre-Delta case levels or lower, with occasional flare-ups
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cpmm-1
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2.989431308393196
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play
NO
public
1641130029207
Jack
By the end of 2022
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jack
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{"NO": 150.23781118204278, "YES": 114.22890731517303}
1
restaurant-and-retail-spending-cont
729.5277193623352
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
Restaurant and retail spending continues to be basically normal for most of the year
0
1672531200000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
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4.185295524108676
True
play
YES
public
1641130029711
Jack
BINARY
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jack
1672607028590
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9790414478372308
us-covid-cases-below-delta-peak-by-
789
{"NO": 10, "YES": 779}
US covid cases below Delta peak by end of March
0
1645248911612
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 779}
0
4.664415859096707
True
play
YES
public
1641130029936
Jack
BINARY
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jack
1641130029936
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9709748874418732
before-january-15th-2022-will-manti
1666.8103038330157
{"NO": 135.18969616698433, "YES": 1530}
Before January 15th, 2022, will Mantic Markets implement a limit on trading markets once they’ve passed their stated resolution date?
40
1641745992244
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 136, "YES": 1530}
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4.641569173881823
True
play
YES
public
1641134386491
Duncn
At this time, we can still trade on markets that are 100% determined, having passed the event/final date. Will MM add a feature that eliminates this before January 15th, 2022? This question will resolve in the affirmative if I, an unpaying member, can clearly see that this feature has been implemented. Jan 9, 11:19am: #ManticMarkets
BINARY
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1641745992244
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Duncn
1641134386491
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1641696084981
0.44758738413789534
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{"NO": 169.49481974021188, "YES": 194.12363741308624}
0.41432936088323785
will-circular-economy-become-mainst
1359.6178405475778
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
Will circular economy become mainstream in 20 years?
0
2272147200000
zUePeK0LwzdllHFcFKx2BgKpu7M2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1641134482148
Cecelia Chuh
Circular economy reshapes "ownership" of everything in the economy, while also redraws a trackable flow of everything in the economy. It is one of the solutions to a sustainable world. It is also a way for human being to mimic how nature works.
BINARY
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180
CeceliaChuh
1710130678675
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwERXMoVfh3uyYmS3dwpyJ48UKT-KvHHEjmYU5-=s96-c
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1650314690731
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1
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0.27509260757973497
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.27509260757973497
will-the-7day-moving-average-of-us-
386.41002140552325
{"NO": 265, "YES": 158.58997859447678}
Will the 7-day moving average of US official confirmed Covid cases exceed 750k by Jan 7?
200
1641683580477
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 265, "YES": 140}
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4.692200176912012
True
play
NO
public
1641135571265
Jack
Resolves based on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases
BINARY
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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
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1641683580477
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jack
1641135571265
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1641683566200
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
1
will-most-of-the-us-population-have
851.5744827708585
{"NO": 125, "YES": 629.4255172291415}
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
0
1651095894963
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 125, "YES": 636}
0
5.310580420830346
True
play
YES
public
1641136323537
Jack
Resolves yes if >50% of the US population are estimated to have had an infection with Covid according to seroprevalence data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab. (For reference, the current estimate is 31% for October 2021.) This will resolve a few months into 2023 when the data for December 2022 is available.
BINARY
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0
{"NO": 374.9616991926737, "YES": 877.685474459192}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
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1651095894963
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jack
1641136323537
0
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0
1
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9426016017904587
will-us-canada-land-border-crossing
658.6357105352873
{"NO": 18.608072093894066, "YES": 540.7562173708186}
Will US -> Canada land border crossings be subject to #COVID restrictions on Mar. 1, 2022?
0
1646152911025
clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 544}
0
4.678847355758293
True
play
YES
public
1641152824576
Raven Kopelman
As of writing, crossing from the US into Canada through a land border requires a negative #COVID test and quarantine plan, even if fully vaxxed. This question will resolve "yes" if any such barriers to entry remain on Mar. 1, 2022. Randomized testing at the border would not count as a barrier, but additional requirements triggered by lack of full vaccination would. I think about this in terms of three main parts 1. Will Omicron make border restrictions pointless in short order? Probably. 2. Will border crossing requirements be updated in a timely fashion? Maybe. 3. Will a new variant appear that spreads through those who already had Omicron? Probably not.
BINARY
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1646152911025
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RavenKopelman
1641152824576
0
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0
1
1644716428651
0.9426016017904587
0.19801490062127183
5Zvp4GRUQHmmF6gPmeBC
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.19801490062127183
test-market
1
{"NO": 1, "YES": 0}
Test market
0
167255999900
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
{"NO": 1, "YES": 0}
0
4.8367741249943155
True
play
CANCEL
public
1641176028300
Austin
#TestOf Mantic Markets lol
BINARY
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{"NO": 180.00277775634464, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
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1641187182644
100
Austin
1641176028300
0
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1715656998920
0
0.1055555555555555
xOGiBt4lZQOoQy4OVUec
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.1055555555555555
this-market-will-close-before-anyon
400
{"NO": 400, "YES": 0}
This market will close before anyone gets a chance to bet on it
0
1641259640358
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 37.32109937267418, "YES": 162.67890062732582}
{"NO": 400, "YES": 0}
0
4.69509917327378
True
play
NO
public
1641200873880
Austin
Jan 3, 1:10am: Test of adding more to this #meta market... Jan 3, 1:18am: Jan 3, 5:26pm: ..... who even bet on this?
BINARY
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{"NO": 567.4504383644444, "YES": 194.93588689617926}
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1641259640358
100
Austin
1641200873880
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
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1715658916649
0
1641283057232
0.6847316660657955
H4pynWk2GtpDbkz5abjG
{"NO": 1029.5066009991247, "YES": 69.15422474684502}
1
google-chrome-will-support-thirdpar
2599.478439023572
{"NO": 110, "YES": 10}
Google Chrome will support third-party cookies by default on January 1, 2024
0
1704146768955
TQFvxxrg3pZHolxORYGuXMviLpu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 115.35359952768478, "YES": 84.64640047231522}
{"NO": 110, "YES": 10}
0
2.972559215136956
True
play
YES
public
1641224142011
Don Marti
This market will resolve to "yes" if a fresh install of the current supported version of Google Chrome for Microsoft Windows has third-party cookies enabled by default.
BINARY
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0
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{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}
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1704146768955
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DonMarti
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0
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1650313878286
0
9
[{"name": "www", "slug": "www", "userId": "fEOv9u1pr7TgIeOGxS9R6O26Ry12", "groupId": "nv3JpiN9yOF4UfAD3mQ3", "createdTime": 1678893919194}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139925498}, {"name": "Web Browser", "slug": "web-browser", "groupId": "f5edc33d-7696-44bd-b3ad-1eebe6cbbf51", "createdTime": 1703573568632}]
["www", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "web-browser"]
1704146673024
1704146708730
0.97
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
0.3446066215735137
bfvIm3NiQTNyEbqQK9Xg
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3446066215735137
the-this-market-will-close-before-a
65
{"NO": 55, "YES": 10}
The "This market will close before anyone gets a chance to bet on it" market will close before 9:00 PM EST on January 3rd, 2022
0
1641261407292
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 55, "YES": 10}
0
4.787664358140534
True
play
YES
public
1641240942851
Duncn
Jan 3, 3:18pm: #meta #metameta
BINARY
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0
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1641261407292
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Duncn
1641240942851
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
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1715658408001
0
1641282309739
0.7909039262719353
dLgQuzbS9kUBkWdSNBD7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7909039262719353
will-schools-in-ireland-reopen-on-0
156
{"NO": 50, "YES": 106}
Will schools in Ireland re-open on 06 January 2022?
0
1641427199000
bBilVgGF9cYVJn8tOsP3uZOMTL43
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 106}
0
4.746370205974774
True
play
YES
public
1641245030842
Donal Hunt
Irish primary and secondary schools are due to re-open after the Christmas holidays on 06 Jan 2022. If schools return as planned, the market will resolve to "yes". If a staggered return or delay is announced for all schools, the market will resolve to "no". If individual classes to not return due to staff absences but schools are open, the market will resolve to "yes".
BINARY
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{"NO": 162.78820596099706, "YES": 316.6006948823707}
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1645123080348
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DonalHunt
1641245030842
0
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1715658464267
0
1
0.7909039262719353
0.5891727829942985
iLPaHIdCLPRaZyRLDb5i
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5891727829942985
will-german-government-decrease-the
3647.8514373089165
{"NO": 1625.3950960417892, "YES": 2042.7534666492943}
Will German government decrease the time of mandatory quarantine from 14 to less or exactly 7 days by 1st of Feburary 2022?
2494
1642844828266
IiQhVqsxhtdVkjshB9cPTRDZMkH2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 1584, "YES": 2074}
0
4.627966979006414
True
play
YES
public
1641293608297
Igor Ranc
This market will resolve with "Yes" if the German government will decrease the time of mandatory quarantine (for anyone in contact with a positive Covid-19 test) from 14 to less or exactly 7 days by 1st of February 2022. Source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html Jan 22, 10:44am: Resolved YES: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Quarantaene/Absonderung.html
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1642844828266
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IgorRanc
1641293608297
0
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1715658557761
0
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7388137356919874
the-washington-football-team-will-r-e2fe68746da39
459
{"NO": 359, "YES": 100}
The Washington Football team will rebrand and include the word 'Red' in its name before March 1st, 2022.
0
1646197199000
YkzR09qG6FYUF5PZf3L1vh3FkWp1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 359, "YES": 100}
0
4.688199041283987
True
play
NO
public
1641312573186
Z
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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1643824178186
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Zee
1641312573186
0
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4
1715658257662
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403674}]
["sports-default"]
0.7388137356919874
0.1285532056417492
0BTkIjm0s7fY5mGHbxvD
{"NO": 56.972362597639936, "YES": 411.8151730248841}
0
will-magnus-carlsen-play-in-the-nex
796.1959385950877
{"NO": 1, "YES": 50}
Will Magnus Carlsen play in the next World Chess Championship?
0
1672646399000
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 1, "YES": 50}
0
8.13337969066438
True
play
NO
public
1641331625249
Dwaxe
This market will resolve to yes if the next WCC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) features Magnus Carlsen defending the world champion title.
BINARY
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{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
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Dwaxe
1670081921593
0
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16
1650311991743
0
11
19
[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663678969411}]
["chess"]
1670081921486
1658328430929
0.02
0.39999999999999974
qMv4nhNe3Nivvh5c0Lcm
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.39999999999999974
i-know-todays-wordle-word
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
I know today's Wordle word
0
1641341351839
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1641341032866
Austin
Wtf is SI__E? Jan 4, 4:08pm: oh... https://photos.app.goo.gl/8JQQeJacC6PJZDwm6
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
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{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1641341351839
100
Austin
1641341032866
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
0
1715658732813
0
0.13847073429783902
LlaTRk7N6vHGyNf9K1gK
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.13847073429783902
will-solana-trade-above-180-usd-any
312.2370138386834
{"NO": 259.7629861613166, "YES": 35.99999999999999}
Will Solana trade above $180 USD anytime before Jan 10th?
40
1641794399000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 268, "YES": 35.99999999999999}
0
4.711376011506095
True
play
NO
public
1641350483287
James
I will look at the Solana price graph linked here and see if it crosses $180 before January 10th: https://www.coinbase.com/price/solana #Solana #Crypto
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 458.8504869836303, "YES": 183.95651660107066}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1641835121497
100
JamesGrugett
1641350483287
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
5
1715657987776
0
1641834873474
0.5
BGjikj4lz8WBZMUeqE68
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-new-reported-covid-cases-excee
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
Will new reported Covid cases exceed 2 million on any one day before January 10th?
0
1641794399000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1641351026400
James
Over 1 million new cases were reported on Jan 3rd. Will we reach 2 million shortly? This market will be decided by checking this page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html #Covid #Omicron Jan 10, 11:20am: Luckily, 1 million was the peak so far! I think there's some weekend effect that contributed, where Monday's are usually the biggest reporting days. By that logic, we should expect a big number later today...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641835484120
100
JamesGrugett
1641351026400
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
0
1715657727915
0
0.5953360768175585
PGDKawe5SXuxWSYjFBvS
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5953360768175585
will-one-of-the-comments-on-this-ma
70
{"NO": 30, "YES": 40}
Will one of the comments on this market be a joke that I think is funny (before Jan 10th)?
0
1641794399000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 30, "YES": 40}
0
4.784730694915448
True
play
NO
public
1641353364429
James
I will be examining your jokes with the harshness of a nun overseeing detention at a Catholic school! :P #Jokes #Nuns
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 171.75564037317667, "YES": 208.32666655999665}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1641835204929
100
JamesGrugett
1641353364429
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
3
1715658108951
0
1641502255282
0.1067590087205632
1kD8M9XqTH4UAbReQX5B
{"NO": 123.82303647573897, "YES": 355.18006253569956}
0
will-apple-ship-its-ar-glasses-by-e
761.3971367215896
{"NO": 192, "YES": 1}
Will Apple ship its AR glasses by EOY 2022?
0
1672531200000
rl2BE1SYhtacHzyH3GLR5xMPyhw1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 192, "YES": 1}
0
5.51838608712296
True
play
NO
public
1641364184278
Lawrence Luk
This market will resolve to "yes" if Apple releases a consumer-focused AR device worn on the face (glasses or similar form factor) that is delivered (ie in retail customers' hands) by EOD December 31, 2022 PST.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 365.93442035424874, "YES": 143.32131732579072}
{"creatorFee": 0.16977572716885803, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1673466781496
140
LawrenceLuk
1670081924131
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwr7tRw3PKjFPVaX5rcUong5CInXx6aU8miQpf9=s96-c
10
1650313774194
0
3
11
1670081924016
0.04
0.25574968677446136
9BwSsGdsqkV9U5BL446u
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.25574968677446136
will-large-areas-of-new-england-hav
197.00444409358855
{"NO": 124.99555590641145, "YES": 20}
Will large areas of New England have blackouts in the 2021-2022 winter?
0
1648659288040
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 125, "YES": 20}
0
4.750280287003564
True
play
NO
public
1641393972611
Gabrielle
Recent reporting (eg. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/14/nation/rolling-blackouts-possible-new-england-this-winter-regional-grid-warns/) has suggested that there might be blackouts in New England due to natural gas price spikes and supply chain issues. However, it is also expected to be an unusually mild winter, so gas usage will likely be lower than in past years. This market will resolve negatively if blackouts occur but only because of physical damage, such as lines that are downed by trees.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 297.6274707733099, "YES": 174.47011846232138}
{"creatorFee": 0.799822236256458, "platformFee": 0.1999555590641145, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1648659288040
100
Gabrielle
1641393972611
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
4
1715657661558
0
1645146042021
0.25574968677446136
0.3000000000000001
30ihoYlKZ3WAVfs539DD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3000000000000001
will-austin-show-up-to-lukes-place-
0
{"NO": 7.00000000000001, "YES": 3.000000000000005}
Will Austin show up to Luke's place for drinks today (2022-01-05)?
10.000000000000014
1641455999000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120.87121525220799, "YES": 79.128784747792}
{"NO": 7.00000000000001, "YES": 3.000000000000005}
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
NO
public
1641437020736
Austin
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 175.69860557215586, "YES": 115.0217370760849}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103324}
0
1641457452145
100
Austin
1641437020736
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
0
1715656935709
0
0.7278911564625848
MC70OYGdIZOLbg6IFzDu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7278911564625848
will-i-receive-any-form-of-compensa
10
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
Will I receive any form of compensation for my canceled Alaska flight?
0
1643702399000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
NO
public
1641446640790
Austin
Feb 1, 12:46pm: nothing from Alaska yet, and I think we're past the statute of limitations for market resolution. Feb 19, 9:39am: huh, I guess I resolved this incorrectly! Just got $250 credit from Alaska.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 179.16472867168915}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1643748433100
100
Austin
1641446640790
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1715658003944
0
0.963798524018656
ciYp4MpUKyPhRMPaS5OI
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.963798524018656
will-february-2022-start-right-afte
1522.3720083789099
{"NO": 37, "YES": 962.6279916210901}
Will February 2022 start right after January 2022?
0
1644231053846
wveTqoPjF0ba8oSaSw7MR1RYQjo1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 37, "YES": 993}
0
4.655985719858998
True
play
YES
public
1641461939251
Christian Sterr
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 227.97871862770256, "YES": 1176.3167955544932}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1644231053846
100
ChristianSterr
1641461939251
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzly1ykPBD8_fsRt009i0w8-gLsUQujmzPD56pb=s96-c
13
1715658448391
0
1643839539097
0.963798524018656
0.05755766622192913
nkCFmsf0yTEQc1HTidCH
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05755766622192913
will-there-be-an-elite-consensus-th
2417.6051713136976
{"NO": 661.3948286863027, "YES": 35}
Will there be an elite consensus that the majority of society should return to normal with no Covid precautions by Feb 14th?
20
1644904799000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 663, "YES": 35}
0
4.669369939163211
True
play
NO
public
1641578460125
James
It helps if we have official statements from Biden, Fauci, or other government officials instructing Americans to return to normalcy. There should also be many experts / scientists that make statements to this effect. The consensus does not need to be perfect: A single op-ed in the NYT arguing against normalcy would not on its own be enough to resolve NO. Ultimately, I will use my judgment to resolve this question. #Covid #Politics Feb 16, 5:27pm: It's getting there, but not at a consensus. Resolving NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 870.2153415153533, "YES": 215.0556864787887}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1645054157310
100
JamesGrugett
1641578460125
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
20
1715658661746
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504625}]
["politics-default"]
1641696292172
0.05755766622192913
0.11004664821617108
WUtBinGZs27oo9XYABcD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.11004664821617108
will-manifold-switch-its-logo-to-a-
2359
{"NO": 2157, "YES": 402}
Will Manifold switch its logo to a manatee by April?
200
1648789199000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 105.01256289338004, "YES": 94.98743710661996}
{"NO": 2157, "YES": 402}
0
4.633077544513956
True
play
NO
public
1641582511401
Manifold
Resolves YES if Manifold Markets changes its current logo (a stylized praying mantis) to a manatee before April 1, 2022. #ManifoldMarkets #fun You can influence the outcome of this market by leaving a bet with a comment on your thoughts on our logo design! Jan 19, 12:28pm: Manifold recently changed its logo to a stylized paper crane. Given that we all like this logo better than any manatee logo designs and can't imagine that we would switch, we are resolving this NO.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2602.7671812899443, "YES": 915.2507853042247}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 148.32396974191323, "YES": 134.16407864998737}
0
1642617085983
100
Manifold
1641582511401
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
10
1715658266167
0
1641623732071
0.10840124409628117
DMq1hiV6PAhwBzmxTgiV
{"NO": 134.24724191040298, "YES": 1290.0147214421784}
0
will-the-sequel-to-zelda-breath-of-
1981.7770744780544
{"NO": 254.5, "YES": 83.3785919385627}
Will the sequel to Zelda: Breath of the Wild be released in 2022?
10.000000000000014
1672552740000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.2050807568877, "YES": 126.79491924311229}
{"NO": 254.5, "YES": 72.50000000000001}
0
4.662499037021347
True
play
NO
public
1641582907906
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Breath of the Wild was recently named the best video game of all time by IGN (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ign.com/articles/the-best-100-video-games-of-all-time", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ign.com/articles/the-best-100-video-games-of-all-time", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will its sequel come out this year? It'll have had 5 years of development time for a game that was supposed to be building on the same world as the original.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, the pandemic would seem to have delayed development, and plausibly the chip shortage could have pushed plans to do a simultaneous release with the next-generation Switch hardware. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Place your bets! #Zelda", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 474.1233811995293, "YES": 254.00865943061203}
{"creatorFee": 5.751009408934397, "platformFee": 0.6079309215417731, "liquidityFee": 3.6436453555129518}
{"NO": 99.99999999999996, "YES": 173.20508075688775}
0
1672592964837
183.64364535551294
JamesGrugett
1670636061580
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
25
1650256326535
0
1
22
[{"name": "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom", "slug": "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0rzViuhetWiDL54m6Ssv", "createdTime": 1673304592485}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1658529459203}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411142}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1673395473632}]
["nintendo", "gaming", "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "entertainment"]
1670636061465
1663085402398
0.01
0.09070294784580506
GMhYGkB1hjr9jKeDKX60
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09070294784580506
will-my-10pm-flight-sfo-mco-get-can
10
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
Will my 10pm flight SFO => MCO get cancelled?
0
1641715199000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
NO
public
1641584584921
Austin
My last flight AS40 was cancelled twice in a row; but UA 2440 seems to have been fine
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 200.24984394500783, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
0
1641792072096
100
Austin
1641584584921
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1715657864363
0
0.024653326823517986
aVFdaQ2YMN9GSA7h90Ut
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.024653326823517986
will-manifold-launch-a-crypto-token-9b99f6930706b
20156.081579526086
{"NO": 11201.748331150307, "YES": 1094.8715075247014}
Will Manifold launch a crypto token before April?
200
1648789199000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 11213, "YES": 1092}
0
4.619113456301643
True
play
NO
public
1641589669153
Manifold
Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022. #ManifoldMarkets #crypto
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 12341.616915949924, "YES": 1962.1415066973404}
{"creatorFee": 48.03675871384439, "platformFee": 12.009189678461098, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1648792011387
100
Manifold
1641589669153
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
78
1715658374067
0
1
1648536369395
0.024653326823517986
0.8688262539885827
Gr5dWGAcyIJFnwDfaBtv
{"NO": 1182.0373087762891, "YES": 967.6535130916587}
0.89
will-2060-globally-be-warmer-than-2
2046.1709807638874
{"NO": 2, "YES": 100}
Will 2060, globally, be warmer than 2010?
0
2871763200000
NeNFRecD6ZYdjblCV7h3EGAVZzz2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 2, "YES": 100}
0
9.968421473540408
False
basic
public
1641602303179
John Holmes
This market will resolve to "yes" if the average global temperature over the entirety of the year 2060 is warmer than the same metric over the year 2010.
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"NO": 144.9275681159385, "YES": 264.9528259898354}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1000
JohnHolmes
1693723335741
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwj3cvlbd12ZmJYRlB45rkmSxgWFUO6u8FDtXY=s96-c
13
1650313877129
0
1
8
1693723335321
1641610547150
0.1396354587107887
fRy5Y3kHPFiiqb9rmrNq
{"NO": 104.00206323253008, "YES": 618.3516139349343}
0
will-bit-coin-hit-100k-this-year
3017.8574328891614
{"NO": 671.3576763352386, "YES": 101}
Will bit coin hit 100k this year?
0
1672531200000
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 18.2650497368698, "YES": 181.7349502631302}
{"NO": 755, "YES": 101}
0
4.999075159081627
True
play
NO
public
1641695807296
Dan Sparkman
Resolves yes if and when (with in a week) bit coin hits $100 000 US dollars. Resolves no first week of 2023 if it doesn't make it by midnight Atlantic time Dec 31st. (That's 1 hour earlier than you are used to.)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 868.3769059158958, "YES": 437.4939999588566}
{"creatorFee": 2.0173238250277845, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
0
1672555297226
140
DanSparkman
1671485663135
0
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will-the-worldometers-covid-counter
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{"NO": 0, "YES": 450}
Will the Worldometers Covid counter register 5,555,555 worldwide deaths before February?
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1642350284179
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{"NO": 82.47806930608819, "YES": 117.52193069391181}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 450}
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1641744170317
Duncn
Will https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show at least 5,555,555 worldwide deaths before the end of the day on January 31st? #Covid #shortterm
BINARY
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1642350284179
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1641744170317
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will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
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{"NO": 57059.956708143145, "YES": 89878.79693219413}
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
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1646067600000
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 56943, "YES": 90428}
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1641745942656
Duncn
Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties. It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion. Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.
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["russia", "ukraine", "world-default", "global-macro", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1645578269311
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will-the-turkmenistanian-gates-of-h
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{"NO": 178.87528944108203, "YES": 34.62388818519162}
Will the Turkmenistanian "Gates of Hell" fire be extinguished before 2023?
0
1672549199000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 156, "YES": 52}
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1641747166285
Duncn
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov recently called for the Darvaza gas crater, colloquially known as the "Gates of Hell", to be put out. This has been attempted before, but environmental, health, and economic concerns have convinced Turkmenistan to try again. #Turkmenistan #climatechange #worldevents
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{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529415174}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1682878900467}]
["world-default", "asia"]
1671664284426
1641762668629
0.09
0.5535785146267519
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5535785146267519
will-the-gates-of-hell-be-put-out-b
1
{"NO": 22.499999999999996, "YES": 28.49999999999999}
Will the Gates of Hell be put out before the end of the year?
49.999999999999986
1672552799000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 94.98743710661998, "YES": 105.01256289338004}
{"NO": 22.499999999999996, "YES": 28.49999999999999}
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MKT
public
1641760176493
SG
The "Gates of Hell" are a continuously burning natural gas crater in Turkmenistan, created by a Soviet drilling accident in 1971. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov "has ordered his government to look for ways to put the fire out because it is causing ecological damage and affecting the health of people living in the area". https://www.npr.org/2022/01/08/1071565479/turkmenistan-gates-of-hell-fire Resolves YES if the fire is put out before Jan 1, 2023. #CentralAsia #energy #GurbangulyBerdymukhamedovGloriousLeaderOfAllTurkmenAndTotallyDemocraticPresidentForLife Update: Ending market now. Didn't realize someone already created it: https://manifold.markets/DuncanMasters/will-the-turkmenistanian-gates-of-h
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1641762622386
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1641760176493
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0.9264254272759619
will-polymarket-list-any-new-market
1436.3478535195338
{"NO": 263.15214648046594, "YES": 1234.5}
Will Polymarket list any new markets in February?
349.9999999999999
1646114399000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
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{"NO": 105.01256289338004, "YES": 94.98743710661998}
{"NO": 217.4999999999999, "YES": 1234.5}
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1641760933789
SG
Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/) is a decentralized prediction market based in the US. The CFTC has recently ordered the company to "shut down non-compliant markets and pay a fine of $1.4 million". Given this injunction, it is not clear whether the company will be able to continue operating. https://news.bitcoin.com/cftc-fines-decentralized-prediction-market-platform-polymarket-1-4-million-shuts-down-noncompliant-markets/ Resolves YES if Polymarket or a directly affiliated successor company or platform creates and lists a new prediction market on their site in the month of February 2022. #Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #crypto
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1643861579578
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1641760933789
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https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
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["polymarket"]
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will-spacex-become-a-publicly-trade
2018.809816453903
{"NO": 160, "YES": 0}
Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2022?
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1672531200000
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 160, "YES": 0}
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NO
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1641784744898
DAL59
Will SpaceX be listed on any public stock exchange by the end of 2022?
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["space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
1672425757854
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1
republicans-will-win-the-2022-texas
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{"NO": 29.115199812024457, "YES": 777.1101720697885}
Republicans will win the 2022 Texas Governor's race
2
1667967413890
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 34, "YES": 766}
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1641832691704
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "YES" if the Republican nominee for governor of Texas wins the election in November 2022. #Texas #Politics
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 285.16278274263396, "YES": 923.6305894707159}
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1667967413890
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LarsDoucet
1667967406343
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529509979}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666011361588}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867780}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181891151}]
["politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]
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{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
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1641852316459
Duncn
#test
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1641852344680
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1641852316459
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https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
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this-will-resolve-yes-in-a-couple-o
243
{"NO": 109, "YES": 234}
This will resolve yes in a couple of hours. I promise.
100
1641867066382
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{"NO": 181.73495026313017, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
{"NO": 109, "YES": 234}
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4.703128024329718
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1641852465959
Duncn
I'm trying to abuse the system, and to get a valid test I need to resolve yes. Profit as you can. Jan 10, 5:07pm: #meta Jan 10, 5:25pm: For those that care: I am trying to abuse the system, but will report any successful profiting off of such nonsense. Jan 10, 6:01pm: #shortterm
BINARY
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{"NO": 198.99748742132397, "YES": 20.000000000000004}
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1641867066382
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Duncn
1641852465959
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will-chinese-economic-growth-drop-b
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{"NO": 51, "YES": 136.15896673310982}
Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?
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1924992000000
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{"NO": 116.43201794182474, "YES": 83.56798205817526}
{"NO": 51, "YES": 145}
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basic
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1641856483693
Richard Hanania
Jan 12, 11:39am: Data depends on the World Bank, using their numbers for both China and the upper middle-income average. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=XT
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[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560498}]
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will-teslas-cybertruck-go-into-full
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{"NO": 412.9999999999999, "YES": 300}
Will Tesla's cybertruck go into full production this year?
0
1672531200000
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{"NO": 97.99919935935921, "YES": 102.00080064064079}
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1641911189179
Dan Sparkman
This market will be resolved yes if it is clear that Tesla is producing trucks. If they are only producing test runs it will resolve no. Edge cases will resolve no. If they sneak it in under the wire it will resolve no. It will resolve late December early January.
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[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
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1670082302505
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will-the-7day-average-for-us-covid-
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{"NO": 136, "YES": 33.29575493051028}
Will the 7-day average for US covid cases increase every day through Jan 20th?
30
1642571999000
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 136, "YES": 35}
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1641921641339
James
The 7-day average for new covid cases in the US has increased every day since Dec 25th according to Our World In Data. Will it continue to increase, or will there be at least one day where the 7-day average decreases on or before Jan 20th? I've set the close date to the 18th, after which you cannot make any more trades. Data source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-12-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA This market is similar to whether the peak in US cases is before Jan 20th, because if the 7-day average goes down, that's either the peak or near the peak. #Covid
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JamesGrugett
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0.9679160009902077
will-the-price-of-bitcoin-drop-belo
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Will the price of Bitcoin drop below $40,000 before Feb 1st?
100.00000000000001
1643695199000
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{"NO": 94.98743710661996, "YES": 105.01256289338002}
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1641927420712
Manifold
Data source: https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin #Bitcoin #Crypto
BINARY
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will-inflation-be-07-or-more-in-dec
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Will inflation be 0.7% or more in December 2021?
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1641928312485
Manifold
This market is based on the CPI published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ December's CPI is scheduled to be released on January 12, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. For context, October's inflation rate was 0.9%, and November's was 0.8%. #Inflation #CPI
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Will there be a day with 1.75 million or more new Covid cases in the US by Jan 18th?
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1641929109139
Manifold
On Monday, Jan 10th, there were over 1.4 million new cases reported. Is the peak still to come? Data source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html #Covid #cases
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Will Manifold Markets have an official launch on or before Jan 25th?
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1641929828400
Manifold
We are tentatively planning our "launch" for Jan 25th, but we may change the date or even forgo a formal launch date. #ManifoldMarkets #Launch
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Will I create at least 10 markets on this site by the end of the year?
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1641943207810
Nuño Sempere
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Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
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1641969725023
Lars Doucet
Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed #China #War #Taiwan
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Will inflation be 0.6% or higher in January?
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1642012191148
Manifold
This market will be resolved based on the CPI change for January 2022, which will be released in a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Feb 10th: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ For context, November's inflation was 0.8%, and December's was 0.5%. #Inflation #CPI #Economics Feb 10, 11:36am: "CPI for all items rises 0.6% in January" (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) so this resolves YES!
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Will Richard Hanania step foot in Washington, D.C. in 2022?
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1642020475140
Richard Hanania
Market will end either at the end date or whichever date I step foot in Washington, D.C.
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{"NO": 151, "YES": 560}
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1642020547009
Richard Hanania
Since 2019, have published two articles on The Washington Post website, one in the Wall Street Journal, and one in The New York Times. Will I publish one again? Either the print or website of each paper counts.
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Will Richard Hanania publish at least 70 Substack posts in 2022?
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1642020591115
Richard Hanania
All posts count, even ones that refer to media appearances, etc.
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Will Richard Hanania appear on Tucker Carlson Tonight at least once in 2022?
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{"NO": 41, "YES": 341}
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1642020731854
Richard Hanania
I was on Tucker Carlson Tonight on June 17, 2021. Will I be back on in 2022? See appearance here. https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/appearance-on-tucker-carlson-tonight Only actual appearances on the show count. Being quoted in some form will not. Market ends the moment the show airs, or at the end of 2022.
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Tulsi Gabbard Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election
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1642040061441
Matt Parrott
Market to be decided when President-Elect Jennifer Tulsi Gabbard is sworn into office on Inauguration Day, as confirmed by CNN.
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Jen Psaki Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election
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1642040100316
Matt Parrott
Market to be decided when President-Elect Jennifer Rene Psaki is sworn into office on Inauguration Day, as confirmed by Fox News.
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Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
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1642047660767
Andy Martin
Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/ I'll resolve this on or around March 15 by taking an average of the last 7 days of February for "China" on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases. Jan 14, 7:18pm: #China #Covid #CovidZero Feb 11, 5:41am: the link being used for resolution is https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases (no trailing period)
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1642047822269
Andy Martin
Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ Will resolve positively if at any time between now and December 31, 2024 the value of 1 bitcoin is greater than or equal to $100k USD.
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Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
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Andy Martin
Impact will be judged in terms of hospitalizations, deaths, societal consequences, and general effects on the resumption of "normal life". Jan 14, 7:18pm: #Covid #Variants #COVID19
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Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by June 30th, 2022
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1642083330557
Jiaobei Mandos
This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD
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