p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.6280991735537191 | grIV0O3yJJSxdola8YJ4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6280991735537191 | will-the-tampa-bay-buccaneers-beat | 120 | {"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 75} | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL playoff game today? | 1642395599000 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.819494920240895 | True | play | YES | public | 1642343435483 | BCG | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 174.35595774162695} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663} | 0 | 1642367602685 | 100 | BruceGrugett | 1642343435483 | 0 | 1 | 1715658534297 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8067179929833441 | bFxoyPcKdSDyqBAEcryp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8067179929833441 | will-the-worldometers-covid-counter-660e525b9f7aa | 3137.390716871594 | {"NO": 903.2211797137259, "YES": 1963.3881034146802} | Will the Worldometers Covid counter register 888,888 US deaths before February? | 1643691599000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 910, "YES": 1964} | 0 | 4.63183152530967 | True | play | YES | public | 1642350713629 | Duncn | Will https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ show at least 888,888 US deaths before the end of the day on January 31st? #Covid #shortterm #US | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1304.2356429532301, "YES": 2664.533735270396} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1642967353468 | 100 | Duncn | 1642350713629 | 0 | 12 | 1715658389890 | 0 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}] | ["medicine"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5186478854702588 | M3HabgjeyfIbB4YZ1Tcx | {"NO": 21.326889795438092, "YES": 440.3452491306093} | 0 | will-china-report-more-than-100000 | 881.1476774878781 | {"NO": 299.3675641943469, "YES": 300} | Will China report more than 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases for any single day before May 2022? | 1651355999000 | DnAbnL4BOXQPeqkJVjoP97LEV2C2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 301, "YES": 300} | 0 | 3.7771781337154255 | True | play | NO | public | 1642362873622 | Tristan | Resolves positive if China reports more than 100k COVID cases for any day before May 1st, 2022.
Apr 12, 1:48pm: To resolve this question, I'll look at data from China's CDC as reported here: https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm
The question will be resolved based on all new reported cases for a given day, including asymptomatic cases. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 481.82406452149235, "YES": 506.9127742473281} | {"creatorFee": 1.312510179512559, "platformFee": 0.21875169658542656, "liquidityFee": 1.312510179512559} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1667350290276 | 101.31251017951256 | Tristan | 1667306606676 | 0 | 13 | 1650314546860 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983082}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659851505528}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601090}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779647824}] | ["china", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1651204692845 | 1667306604360 | 0.04959660144640583 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8106769921907984 | 4W5yR8ZARDCGKOLumBTd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8106769921907984 | will-argentina-reach-a-deal-with-th | 364.2482079908662 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 257.7517920091338} | Will Argentina reach a deal with the IMF before June 2022? | 1648235852723 | R4dow3trKVdygaCyvdhYOCq37U93 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 260} | 0 | 4.728043060794702 | True | play | YES | public | 1642363796461 | Rui Rojo | Resolves positive Argentina and the IMF sign a deal before 1 June 2022 and Argentina does not default on its debt with the IMF till then. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 181.7690842800282, "YES": 376.1336992704091} | {"creatorFee": 2.3100716803653505, "platformFee": 0.5775179200913376, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1648235852723 | 100 | RuiRojo | 1642363796461 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiRsrYsh-JVjpXkz4IbwLrX6nAzwpfaZNYowuIiZA=s96-c | 3 | 1715656973632 | 0 | 0.8106769921907984 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6885900492537784 | FaHfgLVXKAgP1IyamRRr | {"NO": 94.33381201836451, "YES": 140.8779210215002} | 0 | will-democrats-lose-more-than-10-se | 3669.538108779637 | {"NO": 610.9099349285558, "YES": 1010.9099624948085} | Will Democrats lose more than 10 seats during the 2022 midterms? | 1667980799000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 636, "YES": 1042} | 0 | 1.9490345661314747 | True | play | NO | public | 1642364393546 | Bob | Will resolve "yes" if Democrats lose more than ten congressional seats during the 2022 midterm elections. Will resolve "no" if Democrats lose less than ten seats. If Democrats win seats, I will resolve it as "no". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 952.3815124166063, "YES": 1434.445263497378} | {"creatorFee": 12.763955662029579, "platformFee": 0.36557279306999657, "liquidityFee": 2.1934367584199794} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1669006204451 | 122.19343675841999 | thadthechad | 1667245237588 | 0 | 38 | 1650313870045 | 0 | 3 | 37 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668566469154}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1667245237239 | 1646086308874 | 0.5968800141792829 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6140484494297295 | LAeVo28wPaBS5q9RsI4n | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6140484494297295 | will-unemployment-continue-decreasi | 488.86563338182316 | {"NO": 174, "YES": 167.13436661817684} | Will unemployment continue decreasing? | 1646207999000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 174, "YES": 170} | 0 | 4.722373484882516 | True | play | NO | public | 1642368006893 | Bob | Resolves YES if unemployment decreases by more than 0.1% during January 2022. Resolves NO if unemployment increases OR remains stable. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 319.9437450552831, "YES": 303.70302832145103} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644439673428 | 100 | thadthechad | 1642368006893 | 0 | 9 | 1715657968432 | 0 | 0.6140484494297295 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1414388261173002 | bR9vEMqfK50tHzSp4A74 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1414388261173002 | will-the-us-covid-case-count-on-jan | 874.6540480562749 | {"NO": 475.38792908082667, "YES": 135.95802286289847} | Will the US Covid case count on Jan 17th be the highest of any day in January? | 1642485599000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 481, "YES": 81} | 0 | 4.683003360913486 | True | play | NO | public | 1642378634451 | James | I think this is the peak, guys!
Place your bets — this market will only be open through tomorrow, as an experiment. I will resolve it Feb 1st.
This will be resolved according to the case counts sourced here: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-12-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
#Covid #cases
Jan 18, 11:30am: Only 717k cases on Jan 17th, which is less than the previous peak last Monday, 1.36 million. So, resolving NO. Watch out for the case count for Jan 18th though! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 659.1230307514255, "YES": 267.5255009896809} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1642527332336 | 100 | JamesGrugett | 1642378634451 | 0 | 8 | 1715658395815 | 0 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}] | ["medicine"] | 1642384838964 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3704044117647059 | WsGJWtLiqwrWZ2N2CyKI | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3704044117647059 | will-the-us-covid-case-count-on-jan-4b85b5de22c66 | 580 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 195} | Will the US Covid case count on Jan 18th be the highest of any day in January? | 1642485599000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 385, "YES": 195} | 0 | 4.686021925940493 | True | play | NO | public | 1642385097187 | James | I think this is the peak, for real!
Place your bets — this market will only be open through tomorrow, as an experiment.
I will resolve it Feb 1st or earlier if the answer is NO.
This will be resolved according to the case counts sourced here: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-12-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
#Covid #cases
Jan 19, 12:29pm: Looks like there was an uptick on the 18th, but not enough to beat Jan 10th! Good news for the US. Resolving NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 539.5600059307583, "YES": 413.8538389335056} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1642617090549 | 100 | JamesGrugett | 1642385097187 | 0 | 8 | 1715658278343 | 0 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601095}] | ["medicine"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48969411280757474 | wZ1n3hVEHlv1puPeverR | {"NO": 891.9005788742224, "YES": 1076.463253781964} | 0.44292216827092945 | will-aoc-run-for-president-by-2040 | 1989.4166381354157 | {"NO": 22.09666546806389, "YES": 90.71724879043649} | Will AOC run for President by 2040? | 1735718399000 | qaeetXEaU4ZVPG2kZvUNz1BwQBq1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 96} | 0 | 9.635002808084526 | False | basic | public | 1642390333087 | Bob | Yes if she does, NO if she doesn't. | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 95.68844384339212, "YES": 190.0880948845939} | {"creatorFee": 0.6963752972029278, "platformFee": 0.19002582018182504, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | thadthechad | 1714688920645 | 0 | 31 | 1650314810455 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511677}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867788}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.11113548508450365 | 1714688917383 | 1645057015476 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7390638198137792 | Y7djIzB4Ncc3uIyEVcSn | {"NO": 216.79698870436772, "YES": 78.61981467184545} | 1 | will-there-be-another-highprofile-c | 461.83024528197774 | {"NO": 61, "YES": 158.16975471802226} | Will there be another high-profile cancellation a la James Damore or Tim Hunt by EOY? | 1653497823453 | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 61, "YES": 161} | 0 | 3.6581841823265675 | True | play | YES | public | 1642390603082 | Nathan Wei | Any cancellation of someone for holding non-left views reported on by Scott Aaronson, Scott Alexander, or the New York Times is enough to trigger positive resolution.
Jan 18, 6:11pm: Losing a job or an honorary title or having to step down, like Damore or Tim Hunt or Stallman. There do need to be some actual professional consequence. It also needs to be over political views of some form or jokes, any sort of *speech* offending left-wing / "woke" sensibilities is enough to trigger positive resolution (Stallman on age of consent, Tim Hunt's jokes, Damore's memo). Boghossian wouldn't trigger because he wasn't notable enough for NYT or the Scotts.
Jan 18, 6:11pm: One of the Scotts need to write about it. It either goes on ACX or Shtetl Optimized and it has to be a "woke" cancellation. The title says a la Damore or Hunt.
May 20, 2:56pm: Still no positive resolution, because Scott has not written about Joshua T Katz and Sabatini. Likely he will mention at least one in the next blog post. So I'll go up. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 163.47171009076771, "YES": 274.1283136174783} | {"creatorFee": 1.218067773794112, "platformFee": 0.20301129563235198, "liquidityFee": 1.218067773794112} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1653497823453 | 101.2180677737941 | nathanwei | 1653097883573 | 0 | 7 | 1650314636293 | 0 | 1653097882194 | 1653072909091 | 0.886496754862029 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9129693226943454 | aIngH9tLS86JOpZAzpD3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9129693226943454 | will-trumps-social-media-app-actual | 14095.73637283221 | {"NO": 1618.6193974851744, "YES": 3215.6442296826135} | Will Trump's social media app actually launch by Presidents' Day? | 1645423199000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1211, "YES": 3272} | 0 | 4.625201727806057 | True | play | YES | public | 1642400953588 | SG | Truth Social, the social media platform associated with former President Donald Trump, is set to launch on Presidents' Day. https://nypost.com/2022/01/07/donald-trumps-truth-social-set-to-launch-presidents-day/
Resolves YES if users can download and use the Truth Social app from the Apple App store any time before the end of President's Day (February 21, 2022). Trading ends the day before. #Trump #SocialMedia #politics #DWAC
Feb 20, 12:48pm: Clarification: If a substantial number of users can download the app from the app store (NOT TestFlight), even if access is not fully unlimited, then I'll resolve YES.
Feb 21, 11:35am: Truth Social seems to be available in the app store. Resolving YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1455.65524944827, "YES": 4714.660681018805} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1645464981406 | 100 | SG | 1642400953588 | 0 | 40 | 1715658362946 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494450}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892761}] | ["politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 1645380264217 | False | 0.9129693226943454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24807493304073394 | 6eLeF7jgZi6zEvPaUiDG | {"NO": 65.11517912636421, "YES": 413.7344171060611} | 0 | will-spacexs-starship-complete-one | 741.6696670021072 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 138.3472021940949} | Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022? | 1656629999000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 127} | 0 | 4.038728659153328 | True | play | NO | public | 1642417840969 | Nathan Young | Starship is having its first orbital flight. It's currently scheduled for March 22 though it has been delayed before. https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-test-flight-faa-delay-march
The plan is to launch it atop Super Heavy and have it complete a loop of the earth before splashing down.
There might be time for multiple launches before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" on the day an intact Starship completes a loop of the earth, even if it something goes wrong on reentry or splashdown. If not, it will resolve "No". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 440.1282632230788, "YES": 254.3697896582851} | {"creatorFee": 1.4922821864207896, "platformFee": 0.24871369773679827, "liquidityFee": 1.4922821864207896} | {"NO": 57.445626465380286, "YES": 81.85352771872451} | 0 | 1659630313712 | 101.4922821864208 | NathanpmYoung | 1659467547836 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 15 | 1650313807946 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1659590679786}] | ["space"] | 1654752608154 | 1659467543138 | 0.04936106345080079 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7754705744982817 | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | {"NO": 32229.820886037047, "YES": 140477.51636193553} | 0.44208805994839306 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | 17371342.677545343 | {"NO": 696.4385491083544, "YES": 586.3268013607158} | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 1722553140000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 698.5, "YES": 565.5} | 0.9749779310489098 | 0.40730688342996335 | False | premium | public | 1642420473710 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.008502936596604727, "week": -0.3247885077181809, "month": -0.5057895490271167} | 0 | {"NO": 1022.3562777437251, "YES": 931.0357972794849} | {"creatorFee": 59065.746234178645, "platformFee": 59029.09781359256, "liquidityFee": 5.210068493148582} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 423812.21261805453 | 101660.61967692486 | NathanpmYoung | 1720247462372 | 25.5 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 68 | 5780 | 1650314639665 | 349 | 1645 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n"}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.6359374626649428 | 1720247458643 | 1720243295812 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4518027533493651 | VCCqFnzW19JIqMmYLtE1 | {"NO": 76.58968893901091, "YES": 638.2358746992928} | 0 | will-i-a-triplyjabbed-uk-citizen-ge | 2707.7319434383417 | {"NO": 59.12777200278961, "YES": 136.5909937195928} | Will I, a triply-jabbed UK citizen, get another jab before the end of 2022 | 1672531199000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 139} | 0 | 2.114479293775103 | True | play | NO | public | 1642420632730 | Nathan Young | I would probably get one if offered. I might try and get another one anyway | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 167.74150815199633, "YES": 243.54132060753685} | {"creatorFee": 4.854084423368336, "platformFee": 0.20274178426660078, "liquidityFee": 1.0865780906442475} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1672536098133 | 261.08657809064425 | NathanpmYoung | 1672521362993 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 38 | 1650314615388 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1672521361775 | 1665581734531 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.950007986054337 | UsXw1ldblNSTd9SIeeWw | {"NO": 1240.3806225984297, "YES": 87.71738489878965} | 1 | will-a-40-person-indoor-professiona | 1281 | {"NO": 3.999999999999999, "YES": 136} | Will a 40 person indoor professional event be legal in UK, July 1st? | 1656716399000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3.999999999999999, "YES": 136} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1642428025758 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 53.665631459994934, "YES": 233.92306427541513} | {"creatorFee": 0.6769734810505602, "platformFee": 0.011519215896048995, "liquidityFee": 0.06911529537629398} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1659630283018 | 100.06911529537629 | NathanpmYoung | 1656703707115 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 7 | 1650314612791 | 0 | 1 | 1656703705887 | 0.9962924168128573 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9838084162707644 | lkToYUsoY45oIlYHP7wf | {"NO": 199.3667576701842, "YES": 159.42297180005647} | 1 | will-more-than-15000-people-be-kill | 4333.28335099098 | {"NO": 154.2381189144047, "YES": 1779.5211397171079} | Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year? | 1669831651451 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 152, "YES": 1808} | 0 | 10.037043572721966 | True | play | YES | public | 1642445786134 | Clay Graubard | To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).
There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be deadlier than 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 271.377515507344, "YES": 2015.5721188155142} | {"creatorFee": 0.3984560020176842, "platformFee": 0.09415547180212082, "liquidityFee": 0.011909089414646367} | {"NO": 81.8535277187245, "YES": 57.445626465380286} | 0 | 1669831651451 | 160.01190908941464 | c | 1669831661061 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 41 | 1650314741368 | 0 | 40 | [{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1662485142477}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662485137288}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420603}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1663178035385}] | ["world-default", "wars", "free-money", "please-resolve"] | 1668816277272 | 1669831657497 | 0.9870103143237103 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9779040039942768 | duRlDkKjMOXjWdqSnY3R | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9779040039942768 | will-more-than-5000-people-be-kille | 15803.489031349902 | {"NO": 269.3470087412228, "YES": 3556.9114093965745} | Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year? | 1650089970014 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 260, "YES": 3610} | 0 | 4.6277732809425665 | True | play | YES | public | 1642445792500 | Clay Graubard | To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).
There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War
Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve
Apr 5, 2:48pm:
Latest confirmed numbers from each side:
Russia MoD says 1,351 of its soldiers killed as of March 26: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-general-claims-only-1-172549136.html
UN OHCHR says 1,430 civilians killed as of April 4: https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-1400-civilians-killed-russia-invasion-numbers-rise
Zelensky says 1,300 of its soldiers killed as of March 13: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/ukraine-mourns-soldiers-killed-russia-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy
= 4081 confirmed so far. Looking for any more recent reports which would push this past 5K as of now.
Apr 16, 7:18am: Zelensky says 2,500 - 3,000 troops which puts the total past 5k: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-between-2500-3000-ukrainian-troops-have-died-war-2022-04-16/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 583.6273987520608, "YES": 3882.6388224278408} | {"creatorFee": 8.650336725511897, "platformFee": 2.1625841813779743, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1650089970014 | 100 | c | 1674879304513 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 59 | 1715658475826 | 0 | 1 | 1674879298188 | 0.9779040039942768 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6734536370237131 | Xe1P0ojpOpVWaKGj4OFZ | {"NO": 785.3031962216307, "YES": 85.2406231145375} | 1 | will-bobby-kotick-still-be-ceo-of-a | 995.999514384539 | {"NO": 59.75, "YES": 3.980605603248435} | Will Bobby Kotick still be CEO of Activision Blizzard in 2023? | 1672552799000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 59.75, "YES": 0} | 0 | 2.554907572872446 | True | play | YES | public | 1642488422201 | Lars Doucet | #Gaming | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 138.95219037930454, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | {"creatorFee": 1.9347044631812476, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1672616095632 | 220 | LarsDoucet | 1672550493177 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 15 | 1650314632046 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411703}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529491745}] | ["politics-default", "gaming"] | 1672550492051 | 1642526168159 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7427177324083675 | 9NJeikZN08vOkvcM3uc4 | {"NO": 1413.9375809545297, "YES": 96.50397312630787} | 1 | will-lina-kahn-attempt-to-block-mic | 2898.954550814815 | {"NO": 156.6264424696613, "YES": 163} | Will Lina Kahn attempt to block Microsoft's Acquisition of Activision-Blizzard-King? | 1670529422804 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 149, "YES": 163} | 0 | 2.8558918646492844 | True | play | YES | public | 1642522882900 | Lars Doucet | This resolves to "YES" if Lina Kahn makes any formal moves or public statements in opposition to the merger moving forward.
#gaming #antitrust
#economics | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 257.4146334631299, "YES": 331.3971298891806} | {"creatorFee": 0.6868190375614213, "platformFee": 0.01790653971828603, "liquidityFee": 0.10743923830971616} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1670529422804 | 200.10743923830972 | LarsDoucet | 1688061215521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 21 | 1650313825712 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473945}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529565576}] | ["politics-default", "economics-default"] | 0.11152683921965657 | 1670528666953 | 1688061212574 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.060167451437569054 | JZG4uklvOTV8D8oMU3ZC | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.060167451437569054 | is-funding-ugandans-to-study-in-ger | 157 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 9.5} | Is funding Ugandans to study in Germany is at least 10x more effective than GiveDirectly cash transfers? Lasts a week. Can resolve ambiguously. | 1643155199000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 147.5, "YES": 9.5} | 0 | 4.792575883984041 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642523535627 | Nathan Young | This tweet says that Ugandan's studying in Germany is funding constrained. https://twitter.com/jhaushofer/status/1483466480260120578
In a week, will I think that it's at least 10x more effective than GiveDirectly cash transfers to developing nations. (ie comparable to GiveWell's top charities). If I don't know, the market will resolve ambiguously.
The market resolves "Yes" if I think it is likely to be and "No" if I think it's likely not to be. Feel free to try and convince me.
Jan 18, 4:32pm: If the market resolves ambiguously, all money will be returned to traders.
Jan 25, 9:41pm: This market finished at 6%. I am still uncertain so it will resolve NA. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 249.14855006601988, "YES": 63.03967004989794} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1643147027637 | 100 | NathanpmYoung | 1642523535627 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 6 | 1715657941583 | 0 | 1643045028628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16565671053103379 | 48QeZzHeRWdoQoIdJavG | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.16565671053103379 | will-the-bills-finally-win-a-super | 234 | {"NO": 194, "YES": 40} | Will the Bills finally win a super bowl this year? | 1644814799000 | PyDK3kP7OJWFSJaBNSWz4Pgl3j92 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 194, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.754427426218674 | True | play | NO | public | 1642528320316 | Oliver S | Jan 18, 12:53pm: #sports #superbowl #football | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 305.0835951014082, "YES": 135.94116374373144} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1643125378868 | 100 | OliverS | 1642528320316 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz259bXYKpL7chGSbkct7j1QcYUrVSTQz77nx3N=s96-c | 5 | 1715656964748 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529396190}] | ["sports-default"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08844123048668502 | yv09fTbl7InW8QhPf5sE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08844123048668502 | will-solana-be-ahead-of-cardano-by | 560 | {"NO": 470, "YES": 90} | Will Solana be ahead of Cardano by the end of the week? | 1643003999000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 470, "YES": 90} | 0 | 4.688092340416034 | True | play | NO | public | 1642575213951 | SG | Solana was recently overtaken by Cardano in market cap—$43bn to $47bn. Will Cardano's rise continue, or will Solana fight its way back? https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/cardano-price-beats-cryptocurrency-rivals-bitcoin-ether-solana-71642443268704.html
Resolves YES if Solana has a higher market cap than Cardano at any time before Jan 24, 2022 according to https://coinmarketcap.com/ #crypto #solana #cardano
Jan 20, 11:42pm: Clarification: Market cap means regular (non-fully diluted) market cap, as displayed at https://coinmarketcap.com/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 630.1388735826413, "YES": 196.2778642639052} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | 0 | 1643005397195 | 100 | SG | 1642575213951 | 0 | 5 | 1715658962339 | 0 | 1642726635968 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.94074011227691 | NNSVgbwM9CVyorYnRaQO | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.94074011227691 | will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be | 1583.731958411881 | {"NO": 222.924812521844, "YES": 1153.343229066275} | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be above 40% by the end of the month? | 1643608799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 215, "YES": 1155} | 0 | 4.648417682660761 | True | play | YES | public | 1642618273653 | SG | Resolves YES if Joe Biden's average approval rating is at or above 40% on the day of January 31st 2022 according to Real Clear Politics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
Feb 1, 11:44am: Biden's approval rating on Jan 31, 2022 is 41.4% according to RCP, making this market resolve YES. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 359.3731533094549, "YES": 1431.8583265445081} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643737623083 | 100 | SG | 1642618273653 | 0 | 17 | 1715658045844 | 0 | 1643404007281 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5080512555158628 | d5ijXgfjyiiZzIkb5lTI | {"NO": 2765.4861496753306, "YES": 95.56182565409344} | 1 | will-blake-masters-win-the-2022-ari | 3093.2116562769543 | Will Blake Masters win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination? | 1659502799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 75, "YES": 60} | 0 | 1.5255631598652635 | True | play | YES | public | 1642618729649 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Masters wins: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://news.yahoo.com/blake-masters-wins-republican-nomination-143852423.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.yahoo.com/blake-masters-wins-republican-nomination-143852423.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 174.35595774162695, "YES": 157.5595125658873} | {"creatorFee": 27.71090987484403, "platformFee": 0.6077672519472211, "liquidityFee": 3.6466035116833266} | {"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | 0 | 1659561955242 | 503.6466035116833 | SG | 1659500223478 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496300}] | ["politics-default"] | 1659500222167 | 1659492251167 | 0.9676233711072044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05601919824966407 | QQcuecSOc5Fh2LU7b3rK | {"NO": 193.42729707752312, "YES": 419.68352526937207} | 0 | will-the-usa-have-a-female-presiden | 4099.628991338039 | {"NO": 1609.4376621569884, "YES": 154.55256213367727} | Will the USA have a female president in 2022? | 1672549199000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1627, "YES": 153} | 0 | 7.665426354963927 | True | play | NO | public | 1642641233737 | Duncn | Jan 19, 8:13pm: temporarily transfers of power do not count.
Jan 19, 8:14pm: #politics #Biden #USpolitics | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1794.78271406077, "YES": 503.20429803393813} | {"creatorFee": 4.362757897766063, "platformFee": 0.26120785354383347, "liquidityFee": 1.516630770576018} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1672587931398 | 201.41207447046867 | Duncn | 1672261838845 | 0 | 83 | 1650314581714 | 0 | 1 | 78 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529485932}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866780}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1672261838702 | 1646156170566 | False | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.035997283348827167 | cBji5n5cRFCZoS1coC2J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.035997283348827167 | will-boris-johnson-leave-office-bef | 1814.6773834026928 | {"NO": 1612, "YES": 161.32261659730707} | Will Boris Johnson leave office before Feb 1st 2022? | 1643673599000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1612, "YES": 161} | 0 | 4.6414541453467155 | True | play | NO | public | 1642685850861 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1839.2963341915242, "YES": 355.42456426730297} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643732487999 | 100 | NathanpmYoung | 1642685850861 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 15 | 1715658420446 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529495767}] | ["politics-default"] | 1643139259317 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09260204081632654 | szaW56Ok2s7BgJJVBvUz | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-texas-rep-henry-cueller-be-ind | 140.00000000000003 | {"NO": 38.49999999999997, "YES": 1.5} | Will Texas Rep Henry Cueller be indicted before his March 1st, 2022 Primary Date? | 1646110799000 | adjU1JexTbcAsraQlBV832ROzuL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 38.5, "YES": 1.5} | 0 | 8.24911019001561 | True | play | NO | public | 1642686934462 | OriginalOranges | Resolve as YES if AP News reports an indictment before midnight EST on February 28th
If no story exists, will resolve as NO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 133.3604139165742, "YES": 42.60281680828159} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1690055865242 | 100 | OriginalOJ | 1690055855632 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzIsUySxbKj2IUr0USNr9FhGJ_deRb3r3PC6W_n=s96-c | 4 | 1650314787147 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666827416453}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666827418568}] | ["please-resolve", "us-politics"] | 1690055853767 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47141669519291896 | LHNIwpG23F5EkJlhIWU6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 1 | will-texas-rep-henry-cueller-win-th | 43 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 24} | Will Texas Rep Henry Cueller win the Democratic Primary Election for his seat on March 1st? | 1646110799000 | adjU1JexTbcAsraQlBV832ROzuL2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 19, "YES": 24} | 0 | 2.7816793093467016 | True | play | YES | public | 1642687050742 | OriginalOranges | Will Resolve as YES if AP News calls the election for Henry Cueller, will resolve as NO if any other candidate wins | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 103.96634070698074, "YES": 98.18350166906862} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1680903151932 | 100 | OriginalOJ | 1680903151199 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzIsUySxbKj2IUr0USNr9FhGJ_deRb3r3PC6W_n=s96-c | 4 | 1650314542003 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666827404825}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666827407878}] | ["us-politics", "please-resolve"] | 1680903147730 | 0.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24609375 | UxJOejb1dqehENfj1srX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.24609375 | will-magnus-carlsen-lose-any-regula | 220 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 62} | Will Magnus Carlsen lose any regular game in the 2022 Tata Steel Masters? | 1643608799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 158, "YES": 62} | 0 | 4.760091685216676 | True | play | NO | public | 1642714287384 | SG | The 84th Tata Steel Chess Tournament runs January 14-30th 2022. Only the 13 round-robin games will be considered for this market (no tie-breakers). #chess #MagnusCarlsen https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-tournaments/tata-steel-masters-2022
Resolves YES if Magnus Carlsen loses any game.
Resolves NO if Magnus Carlsen draws and/or wins every game this market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 277.8488797889961, "YES": 158.74507866387543} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786} | 0 | 1643738012974 | 100 | SG | 1642714287384 | 0 | 4 | 1715658234774 | 0 | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1663679000508}] | ["chess"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6354172387435316 | xSBF5kM5nUVWa3dLbBJU | {"NO": 88.19832645492127, "YES": 141.18731678312594} | 0.5212443929846987 | if-we-launch-a-token-in-2022-will-i | 2835.3549660979365 | {"NO": 292.19057926149685, "YES": 223.68408541066407} | If we launch a token in 2022, will it have a market cap of $20M by Jan 2023? | 1673456625823 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 283, "YES": 241} | 0 | 2.6615376725749114 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642716081039 | Manifold | Resolves YES if Manifold Markets (or an affiliated company or institution) launches a crypto token to the public before the end of 2022, and it has a market cap of 20 million USD or greater by the end of Jan 2023.
Resolves NO if Manifold launches a token in 2022, and it has a market cap less than $20M by the end of Jan 2023, or if there isn't a well-defined market cap or market price per token at that time.
Resolves N/A if Manifold does not launch a token in 2022. #ManifoldMarkets #crypto | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 422.9129322528556, "YES": 447.71224499486067} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1673456625823 | 136.0331836162876 | Manifold | 1673149549285 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 1650314820934 | 0 | 40 | 1673149549085 | 1672995127414 | 0.52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | PDaBNoy7Wfy0lFrMm8F0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.4 | will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-2022-a | 100 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2022 Australian Open? | 1644991199000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | NO | public | 1642716550142 | SG | Resolves YES if Russian tennis player Daniil Medvedev wins the 2022 Australian Open in the Men’s Singles category. #sports #tennis #AustralianOpen
Feb 1, 11:50am: Nadal won. https://www.yahoo.com/now/rafael-nadal-makes-history-australian-152031273.html | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1643737895380 | 100 | SG | 1642716550142 | 0 | 1 | 1715658107439 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529401551}, {"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112331}] | ["sports-default", "australia"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9023783929051331 | FDIzNmOvF82odJv05jIX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9023783929051331 | will-bens-party-happen-on-feb-11th | 22 | {"NO": 1.9999999999999998, "YES": 20} | Will Ben's party happen on Feb 11th? | 1644623999000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1.9999999999999998, "YES": 20} | 0 | 4.9574067233278925 | True | play | YES | public | 1642716984586 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 38.118237105091836, "YES": 115.89219128138012} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1644609511067 | 100 | NathanpmYoung | 1642716984586 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 3 | 1715657838204 | 0 | 0.9023783929051331 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6310040860311034 | WsQEDOhnpOXXcZRDF6Ab | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6310040860311034 | will-dr-ps-question-about-trump-bei | 28420.136856059573 | {"NO": 3950.599312426668, "YES": 9175.263831513737} | Will Dr. P's question about Trump being president by Feb. 28, 2022 be resolved accurately? | 1646035140000 | clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4016.75, "YES": 9142.25} | 0 | 4.618893718041611 | True | play | NO | public | 1642743363496 | Raven Kopelman | https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president seems like it has a high chance of being cited as a motivation for adding reputation system for market makers. Will Dr. P surprise me and resolve accurately?
Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022.
#meta #hedge
Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm
Mar 7, 8:14am: It is Mar. 7 and Dr P's question remains unresolved. Resolving NO per initial description. I'm a little disappointed that Dr P didn't return to argue that the last election was illegitimate and therefore Trump is still president. Also curious if I will ever see my funds returned from that market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 8034.055046192146, "YES": 10506.065648804775} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1646669941836 | 100 | RavenKopelman | 1652842656189 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg55dHNRTFGTLkKUIqZ8LYwnKDlljtkFxJmMgu4iA=s96-c | 89 | 1715658280002 | 0 | 1 | 1652842653932 | 0.6310040860311034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6435911303407247 | edaTj90qfFVo4vZxJk7t | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6435911303407247 | what-will-joe-bidens-approval-ratin | 330 | {"NO": 121, "YES": 209} | What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on February 1? | 1643691599000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 121, "YES": 209} | 0 | 4.725000421383822 | True | play | YES | public | 1642801220287 | Tom | On February 1, I will choose a random real number between 0 and 10, and the market resolves to YES if the random number is less than Biden's approval rating minus 35, and NO otherwise. The approval rating used will be 538's: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
Jan 21, 4:40pm: 538 currently shows a 41.9% approval rating. If it doesn't change, the market will resolve YES with probability 69%.
#shortterm #politics #Biden #USA
For randomness, I'll use random.org, with a seed consisting of the first 64 characters of the New York Times's first tweet after this market closes, e.g. https://www.random.org/decimal-fractions/?num=1&dec=20&col=1&format=html&rnd=id.Thierry+Mugler%2C+the+genre-busting+French+designer+who+dominated.
Feb 1: Biden's approval rating is 41.7%. The NYT tweeted https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1488376594913587200 at midnight, so I'm resolving the market according to https://www.random.org/decimal-fractions/?num=1&dec=20&col=1&format=html&rnd=id.Noise+and+chaos+reign+at+the+heart+of+the+Milky+Way+galaxy+%E2%80%94+or | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 256.7099530598687, "YES": 344.9637662132068} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 55.677643628300224, "YES": 83.06623862918075} | 0 | 1643733748387 | 100 | toms | 1642801220287 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 7 | 1715658492652 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497529}] | ["politics-default"] | 1642804331621 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2597462721117902 | TummyVBZKkzO8ufkNs5K | {"NO": 60.93719312095678, "YES": 901.5087009255917} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-have-a-better | 2538.828557524375 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 72} | Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions? | 1672549199000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 72} | 0 | 3.8810239468719177 | True | play | NO | public | 1642866159301 | Tom | Manifold Markets created markets corresponding to ten of Matt Yglesias's predictions from https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard. If, on these questions, the Brier score of Manifold Markets' predictions is better than the Brier score of Yglesias's, then this will resolve YES. I will score Manifold Markets using the predictions from February 1.
#2022 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 105.94810050208545, "YES": 160.1218286180869} | {"creatorFee": 0.3479705347197428, "platformFee": 0.05799508911995714, "liquidityFee": 0.3479705347197428} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1673903282190 | 260.34797053471976 | toms | 1673903270061 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 1 | 22 | 1650314607317 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 1672478377036 | 1673903264102 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.011780896989372855 | 7Jr2UgpUCqrUvQkp3NXT | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.011780896989372855 | will-bitcoin-fall-below-30000-by-th | 3323.4831110095247 | {"NO": 3000, "YES": 256.51688899047554} | Will bitcoin fall below $30,000 by the end of the month? | 1643695199000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3000, "YES": 190} | 0 | 4.62990486368961 | True | play | NO | public | 1642882009299 | SG | Resolves YES if the price of one bitcoin falls below 30,000 USD at any time before February 1, 2022 according to https://coinmarketcap.com/
#crypto #bitcoin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3336.686922403176, "YES": 364.3158079769822} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1643737807793 | 100 | SG | 1642882009299 | 0 | 20 | 1715657625482 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.169465276757046 | Zyp4EshoJIl7hvZpHQJF | {"NO": 131.23350225539144, "YES": 1918.7785874848666} | 0 | will-any-major-known-associates-of | 3163.221496152056 | {"NO": 33.75, "YES": 16.25} | Will any major known associates of Jeffrey Epstein (besides Ghislaine Maxwell) be TRIED in open court (in any jurisdiction), in either civil or criminal court, in 2022? Pre-trial settlements don't count. | 1672615708143 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 33.75, "YES": 16.25} | 0 | 3.4037417200246165 | True | play | NO | public | 1642883348705 | Lars Doucet | This is slightly different from my other Epstein market. This one resolves if anyone who isn't Ghislaine Maxwell (for example, Prince Andrew) faces a civil or criminal trial related to Epstein's stuff, AND that trial actually happens. If a settlement happens before the trial actually convenes, this resolves NO. If a settlement happens after the trial convenes for even a day, this resolves NO.
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-any-major-known-associates-of-
#Epstein #Justice #Crime | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 111.10243021644487, "YES": 100.77822185373186} | {"creatorFee": 2.194631037090664, "platformFee": 0.07422500134776544, "liquidityFee": 0.44535000808659264} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1672615708143 | 240.4453500080866 | LarsDoucet | 1672598077911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 16 | 1650314652391 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1658529428178}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529494003}] | ["politics-default", "law-order"] | 1672598077799 | 1657894406178 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6500000000000001 | 89JEzS8KjN43cIUO3Pq4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6500000000000001 | will-any-major-known-associates-of-9646119d6843 | 50 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 32.5} | Will any major known associates of Jeffrey Epstein (besides Ghislaine Maxwell) SETTLE a case out of court (in any jurisdiction), in either a civil or criminal case, in 2022? | 1672639199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 32.5} | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | YES | public | 1642883714954 | Lars Doucet | This, unlike my other two Epstein markets, resolves if a major known Epstein associate, who isn't Ghislaine Maxwell, settles a case (civil or criminal) out of court. This resolves YES if any such case is settled at any time in 2022, regardless of whether the case went to trial or not before it was settled, as long as a settlement resolved the case.
#Epstein #Justice #Crime
Feb 15, 11:43am:
Prince Andrew just settled with Virginia Giuffre
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1493617740292276232 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 88.74119674649423, "YES": 120.93386622447825} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1644947067076 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642883714954 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1 | 1715657634389 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529472698}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.6500000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44091833211577897 | DJXn64PJiJryL62RMWmd | {"NO": 32.113024640464175, "YES": 1175.1403801985125} | 0 | will-i-be-signed-up-for-cryonics-by | 2798.3785726354045 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 130} | Will I be signed up for cryonics by the end of the year? | 1672588096041 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 130} | 0 | 3.3539178975974595 | True | play | NO | public | 1642883920405 | Tetra | I am logging my progress towards signing up to cryonics in this Twitter thread:
In favour: I've started the process of getting term life insurance, I think signing up for cryonics is a good idea.
Against: Many people cryocrastinate, I'm lower-conscientiousness than average.
Jan 22, 8:38pm: In THIS Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/TetraspaceWest/status/1483816710054596611?s=20
Also I will refrain from insider trading.
Mar 25, 10:59pm: Cleared my Twitter archive, though I have a log in THIS schelling thread https://schelling.pt/web/statuses/107634491738222954 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 128.06248474865697, "YES": 237.69728648009425} | {"creatorFee": 1.3195527489005432, "platformFee": 0.21992545815009057, "liquidityFee": 1.3195527489005432} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1672588096041 | 321.31955274890055 | Tetraspace | 1672585234491 | 0 | 20 | 1650313852486 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Cryonics", "slug": "cryonics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "osAdS5WK8oeGbRncQHQU", "createdTime": 1677443903292}] | ["cryonics"] | 1672585234285 | 1672539663655 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17619986850756078 | ktT9HmRMWW6mrK9AYISP | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17619986850756078 | will-stocks-crash-on-monday | 290 | {"NO": 240, "YES": 50} | Will stocks crash on Monday? | 1643608799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 240, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.735602992937753 | True | play | NO | public | 1642892410909 | SG | Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index is down 5% or more from 9:30 am - 4 pm ET on Monday, January 31st, 2022. Trading ends Sunday night. #economy #stocks #finance | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 353.9774004085572, "YES": 163.707055437449} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1643061830854 | 100 | SG | 1642892410909 | 0 | 7 | 1715658607225 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2425044616299821 | SWIlFQQ6rEWC13UgFVvB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.2425044616299821 | will-i-hit-3-in-the-top-trader-lead | 105 | {"NO": 90.25, "YES": 14.75} | Will I hit #3 in the top trader leaderboards on February 2? | 1643522399000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90.25, "YES": 14.75} | 0 | 4.832896892548729 | True | play | NO | public | 1642912042978 | Lars Doucet | I've got a couple of big bets about to close at the end of the month. I'm a few dollars away from #4, and a few hundred away from #3. After my big bets close this month, will it be enough to push me up two spots from where I currently am at #5?
https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
#Meta #Fun #Shortterm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 178.42015020731262, "YES": 100.95172113441156} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1643940013179 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642912042978 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 3 | 1715658190552 | 0 | 0.2425044616299821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4568791981796982 | xYCSsiS7ceglcd0Nfuhv | {"NO": 533.4532818181012, "YES": 14.759649166971194} | 1 | will-the-us-government-declassify-m | 468.07505542791637 | {"NO": 14.924944572083632, "YES": 5} | Will the US Government Declassify more UFO footage in 2022? | 1653187980657 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 4.1522802868949995 | True | play | YES | public | 1642919547044 | Lars Doucet | #ufo #aliens
#usa | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 91.2797476476427, "YES": 77.78174593052023} | {"creatorFee": 3.0013788098357126, "platformFee": 0.5002298016392854, "liquidityFee": 3.0013788098357126} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1653187980657 | 103.00137880983571 | LarsDoucet | 1653187966078 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 4 | 1650314822782 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512679}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536642}] | ["politics-default", "science-default"] | 1653187936643 | 1653187964702 | 0.8470837633236838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.017545970868402858 | eV0eJweQqMzQBgn6f48I | {"NO": 99.27928920981742, "YES": 149.93172632258162} | 0 | will-laser-seti-find-nonnatural-ext | 641 | {"NO": 535, "YES": 16} | Will Laser SETI find non-natural extraterrestrial laser pulses before July 2022? | 1656647999000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 535, "YES": 16} | 0 | 10.250911094890142 | True | play | NO | public | 1642945269545 | Duncn | Will the Laser SETI program find unexplained and/or alien laser signals before or on June 30th, 2022? This also resolves yes if other programs find laser signals first, and Laser SETI confirm them.
This resolves no if laser pulses are found, but entirely explained by stellar or black hole phenomenon.
Extraterrestrial requires that the source not be of Earth origin; if they discover a secret Russian laser base on Io, that does not meet criteria.
#aliens #SETI #LaserSETI #science #space #astronomy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 645.263512063095, "YES": 86.23224454924039} | {"creatorFee": 0.06827367741839077, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1656673378104 | 100 | Duncn | 1656438784725 | 0 | 10 | 1650314690450 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531399}, {"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373429241}] | ["science-default", "aliens"] | 1656438781224 | 1648074350748 | 0.011687578406677201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36734693877551017 | fcBEh8QjsxwwqxNw4GvM | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.36734693877551017 | will-shiba-inu-remain-in-coinbases | 75 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 25} | Will Shiba Inu remain in Coinbase's top 10 through March? | 1647403199000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.865801632878073 | True | play | NO | public | 1642946497915 | Duncn | Coinbase currently ranks Shiba Inu #10 on it's list. As per Coinbase "Popularity is based on the relative market cap of tradable assets on Coinbase." When in doubt, the position on the list will be determined by the 'Popularity' stat on the Coinbase Shiba Inu page, although this should track the listed market cap relative to competitors. Currently, Polygon (MATIC) is #11.
Note, this marker closes before the resolution date.
#Crypto #bitcoin #sibainu #shiba #shib | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 139.19410907075056, "YES": 106.06601717798213} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643481029039 | 100 | Duncn | 1642946497915 | 0 | 1 | 1715658509822 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05052295204559269 | x10FJ1ffYqLf73i85TmN | {"NO": 255.31356733181113, "YES": 4842.649304658211} | 0 | will-turkey-land-on-the-moon-in-202 | 5069.842893330985 | {"NO": 309.36324060326245, "YES": 35} | Will Turkey land on the moon in 2023? | 1704085199000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311, "YES": 35} | 0 | 5.958840512704317 | True | play | NO | public | 1642953726137 | Duncn | One of Erdogan's stated targets for the Turkish space program is to "make the first contact with the Moon in our republic's centennial year" (i.e., 2023). The plan is for an unmanned, "rough" landing on the moon, so any Turkish probe or craft that lands and survives long enough to send a signal back while on the lunar surface will suffice to resolve this question as 'yes'.
#space #moon #Turkey #Erdogan #technology | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 420.4754839222448, "YES": 143.73258857958075} | {"creatorFee": 1.0656205319002614, "platformFee": 0.12257739068203465, "liquidityFee": 0.721173250607416} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1704125724675 | 300.7211732506074 | Duncn | 1704125725259 | 0 | 41 | 1650314815889 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455974}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1658529462968}, {"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1661806985431}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129748462}] | ["technology-default", "space", "turkey", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1704085169781 | 1648164248505 | 0 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3109201854801483 | 7zZQAXsGlypLixghpSIb | {"NO": 962.5003095195258, "YES": 1060.9101792267572} | 0.2904562995098371 | will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an | 4007.3015859689017 | {"NO": 116, "YES": 81.95085742970781} | Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024? | 1725249599000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 116, "YES": 82} | 0 | 9.583099209627452 | False | basic | public | 1642983503843 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-\"Any class\" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-The athlete must have been assigned \"male\" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned \"male\" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned \"male\" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an \"athlete\" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The two questions in this series so far: https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 229.72700327155113, "YES": 189.7372325374511} | {"creatorFee": 0.4921282044077878, "platformFee": 0.4921282044077878, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1715858889648 | 1.1 | 2 | 66 | 1650313815523 | 0 | 28 | [{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1663660451349}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "d9xXriq35QaSsPcEVrzpMEuOAex1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670934892294}] | ["lgbtqia", "sports-default"] | 0.11282790675467391 | 1715858886143 | 1670992684638 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41502193015934086 | OBlDj6F0L4zRm5Qaqmgq | {"NO": 46.93043894080944, "YES": 309.77386361104107} | 0 | how-many-more-markets-will-i-create | 230 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | How many more markets will I create by May 1, 2022? | 1651463999000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 5} | 0 | 3.2282028855248637 | True | play | NO | public | 1642995830030 | Tom | I will resolve this market by choosing a random real number between 0 and 100, and resolving this market to YES if that number is less than the number of markets I've created, not including this market or previously created markets (equivalently, it is the total number of markets I've created minus 5). I will not conduct any trading on this market.
#meta
May 13, 7:20pm: Random number was 31.55660995 and I have created 5 markets. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 91.37833441248533, "YES": 77.78174593052023} | {"creatorFee": 1.3568183337535518, "platformFee": 0.22613638895892532, "liquidityFee": 1.3568183337535518} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1652484092650 | 101.35681833375355 | toms | 1651462524209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 4 | 1650314562765 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Tom's Personal", "slug": "toms-personal", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx", "createdTime": 1677478536729}] | ["toms-personal"] | 1651462483640 | 1651462521987 | 0.09705191025589405 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8891515520693904 | QgMniaelfAgfVhyE5ufd | {"NO": 1020.3203003943315, "YES": 997.1667577218952} | 0.8913937819730997 | will-anyone-get-married-after-first | 1164.951105655537 | {"NO": 16.499999999999996, "YES": 133.5} | Will anyone get married after first meeting in person at vibecamp #1? Resolves 2030. | 1893455999000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 16.499999999999996, "YES": 133.5} | 0 | 10.072865572933043 | False | basic | public | 1643022836968 | Nathan Young | They must not have had a substantive conversation in person before vibecamp. | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 86.16843969807043, "YES": 234.6806340540267} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 57.445626465380286, "YES": 81.85352771872451} | 0 | 1000 | NathanpmYoung | 1710284347287 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 0 | 11 | 1650314583624 | 0 | 6 | 1710284343880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2685097253194809 | hFDbESwQfDTHvAGGXYrm | {"NO": 91.748964442115, "YES": 129.93871814138228} | 1 | will-i-test-positive-for-covid-by-m | 592.5673606068652 | {"NO": 276.711542394129, "YES": 136.72109699900574} | Will I test positive for Covid by May 1, 2022? | 1651016795128 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 276.8, "YES": 139.2} | 0 | 3.5255231122267965 | True | play | YES | public | 1643060839250 | Tom | Background info: I am double vaccinated, have not previously tested positive, and get tested frequently.
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm
I've now received a booster. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 439.05488203877866, "YES": 266.16514751581377} | {"creatorFee": 0.3924967337922076, "platformFee": 0.06748325413919717, "liquidityFee": 0.36769115170625677} | {"NO": 76.15773105863909, "YES": 64.8074069840786} | 0 | 1651016795128 | 100.36769115170625 | toms | 1710206845134 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 20 | 1650314714003 | 0 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "Tom", "slug": "toms-personal", "groupId": "0q20dXTEOxJjyDc5z4Rx"}] | ["covid-d7a9361d772d", "toms-personal"] | 0.2058370989038112 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18919140235437581 | tQq7R3zzBphgCEU2DzeZ | {"NO": 972.5779750116037, "YES": 1097.9974775213564} | 0.171282387502508 | will-general-fusions-oxford-demonst | 494.96987234083304 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 53} | Will General Fusion's Oxford demonstration plant be operational before Jan 1st, 2026? | 1767243599000 | b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 53} | 0 | 9.719337061336786 | False | basic | public | 1643067840456 | James G | This market resolves YES if two months after the start of 2026, General Fusion has publicly announced that their demonstration plant was operational before the end of 2025 (as the company has predicted, see https://www.science.org/content/article/plans-unveiled-private-uk-fusion-reactor-powered-smoke-rings-and-pneumatic-pistons) | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 292.4038303442689, "YES": 179.30142219179413} | {"creatorFee": 0.5747184396045572, "platformFee": 0.09578640660075953, "liquidityFee": 0.5747184396045572} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1000 | JamesG | 1684044693652 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c | 1 | 10 | 1650314789711 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529455238}, {"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1676503606667}] | ["technology-default", "fusion-energy"] | 1684044693486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13032452826327892 | IGhjmoMpKNiXikilX67x | {"NO": 685.555926924254, "YES": 8501.652626890012} | 0.011939659502060503 | will-helions-polaris-fusion-reactor | 14233.76667067124 | {"NO": 241, "YES": 120} | Will Helion's Polaris fusion reactor produce net electricity by Jan 1st, 2025? | 1735707599000 | b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 241, "YES": 120} | 0.06999897666707465 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1643069152492 | James G | This market resolves YES if by two months after the start of 2025, Helion has announced that they produced "a small amount of net electricity" from their Polaris reactor as they have predicted.
(see https://blog.samaltman.com/helion)
Jan 25, 7:05pm: I'll just see if they announce it themselves.
Jan 25, 7:06pm: Personally, I would consider it to have to be system level, that in total it produces slightly more electricity than it consumed. | BINARY | {"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": -0.03280213635585433} | 0 | {"NO": 367.07083785013486, "YES": 278.89065957826557} | {"creatorFee": 16.989689123041195, "platformFee": 0.40275327312077447, "liquidityFee": 0.8768821237316858} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1000 | JamesG | 1718696878523 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c | 2 | 47 | 1650313886694 | 0 | 34 | [{"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1676503606664}, {"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-power", "userId": "NnFJuUAa1eNnR8ydYGfdJ7DvFdy1", "groupId": "GAhreYQjzbNxlucwUxQ2", "createdTime": 1683803761949}] | ["fusion-energy", "nuclear-power"] | 0.15081266662568577 | 1718696875391 | 1713048808209 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2643047599050392 | UNLXa1RJdMxg9VmaYTrF | {"NO": 763.5418841432589, "YES": 1966.6022739470004} | 0.12240953856488668 | will-commonwealth-fusion-systems-sp | 4645.270730449624 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 33} | Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026? | 1767243599000 | b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 190, "YES": 33} | 0.23606225735140707 | 9.714881997870215 | False | basic | public | 1643069546638 | James G | This market resolves YES if two months after Jan 1st, 2026, CFS publicly announces they achieved "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" on or before the end of 2025 as predicted in their latest press release: https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/commonwealth-fusion-systems-closes-1-8-billion-series-b-round | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.17860282090382634, "month": -0.14226978226166154} | 0 | {"NO": 292.4038303442689, "YES": 137.2188033762137} | {"creatorFee": 21.490367154909062, "platformFee": 2.2426682730501106, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1000 | JamesG | 1719653417125 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c | 1 | 25 | 1650314609477 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1676503606670}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1691181929079}] | ["fusion-energy", "nuclear"] | 0.15840796990495049 | 1719653390331 | 1719653416133 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09492311890578478 | l2vkgmDkil5EzfUHp8VV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.09492311890578478 | will-austin-tx-leave-covid-stage-5 | 754.7437429407582 | {"NO": 538.2562570592418, "YES": 123} | Will Austin TX leave COVID Stage 5 prior to February 15, 2022? | 1644991199000 | KI6Bs5PvrwVk4b5O1KpnFLIbfsu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 540, "YES": 123} | 0 | 4.678694004014858 | True | play | NO | public | 1643069998476 | Luca Masters | Austin is currently in Stage 5: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb
Stages are set based on indicator thresholds listed here: https://www.austintexas.gov/page/covid-19-risk-based-guidelines
NOTE: Austin doesn't immediately change stages when thresholds are met. They can delay for weeks, especially when the indicators are hovering right around the borderline.
This market will resolve YES iff Austin changes to any other stage prior to midnight CST the morning of February 15, 2022. (A Feb 14 announcement of a change "effective the 15th" is still a NO.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 724.2251645115947, "YES": 234.53997527074145} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644940427997 | 100 | LucaMasters | 1643069998476 | 0 | 14 | 1715658610377 | 0 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601094}] | ["medicine"] | 1643569013534 | 0.09492311890578478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2134732935433277 | flAFNuSp1VDH6vACUyGi | {"NO": 72.89521553031705, "YES": 1613.744237703821} | 0 | will-the-4d-puzzle-game-miegakure-b | 3670.5253994288014 | {"NO": 200.50131737778224, "YES": 170} | Will the 4D puzzle game Miegakure be available for purchase before Dec 31st, 2022? | 1672593912160 | b9PTTPDjJBepWZshJ82xW8PRkwb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 212, "YES": 170} | 0 | 4.122206468483015 | True | play | NO | public | 1643070860018 | James G | This market resolves YES if Miegakure is available for purchase before the end of the year. It has been in development since 2009.
https://miegakure.com/
Jan 25, 7:07pm: The reason I set it so high is due to this Sept 2021 post: https://marctenbosch.com/news/2021/09/miegakure-update-september-2021/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 367.8267114474269, "YES": 293.38541204361206} | {"creatorFee": 10.839264272213068, "platformFee": 0.18697833440475126, "liquidityFee": 1.1218700064285074} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1672593912160 | 161.1218700064285 | JamesG | 1672577234707 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhBhR-WkptGH5CFgKt7n3Y52yJNUBinOPLmTesGtA=s96-c | 0 | 23 | 1650314703124 | 0 | 21 | 1672577114374 | 1672577229509 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7122473246135553 | FWOWGEc89skYSzuN7k4J | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7122473246135553 | will-manifold-markets-win-an-ea-gra | 103 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 78} | Will Manifold Markets win an EA Grant? | 1646200799000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 78} | 0 | 4.834818334989848 | True | play | YES | public | 1643070889652 | Austin | YES if we get any amount from EA Funds from our grant application submitted today (2022-01-24) https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future
#ManifoldMarkets
#Funding
Feb 11, 2:55pm: WOOOHOOO 🎉 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 108.89444430272832, "YES": 171.32133550728585} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1644620167770 | 100 | Austin | 1643070889652 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 7 | 1715657844210 | 0 | 1643071091957 | 0.7122473246135553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | qXrrt4sQEbab6SJahdzv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-a-fully-faulttolerant-surface | 100 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | Will a fully fault-tolerant surface code be constructed by June 2020? | 1648796399000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1643086241144 | John Smith | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643086370851 | 100 | JohnSmith | 1643086241144 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 1 | 1715658737188 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13980053095086686 | PUcCOsqPo1IPFgwhtxuI | {"NO": 90.1994690517569, "YES": 199.93217195999287} | 0 | will-a-fully-faulttolerant-surface-dc68131702d5 | 428 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 58} | Will a fully fault-tolerant surface code by realized by June 2022 | 1654066799000 | 93Zz2QlNvlhqZQvb0UoP8EGQoOJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 270, "YES": 58} | 0 | 5.808023831220284 | True | play | NO | public | 1643086402253 | John Smith | Will a fully fault-tolerant surface code [be] realized by June 2022?
No gate operations, just as a quantum memory. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 396.88789349134856, "YES": 160.1998751560063} | {"creatorFee": 0.4069682400427725, "platformFee": 0.06782804000712875, "liquidityFee": 0.4069682400427725} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1654108557697 | 100.40696824004277 | JohnSmith | 1653583778545 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJztUWXJ4e4_EVl-lKa_2Sp-Edo1pE56hQadFpky=s96-c | 6 | 1650314571929 | 0 | 1 | 1653583777115 | 0.06831265202412737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8133500410092663 | B81u8R9mq4wcmD2btMLg | {"NO": 1281.675419409646, "YES": 900.2666794653918} | 0.8611840128015744 | will-sally-rooneys-next-novel-be-no | 1023.5391664514425 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | Will Sally Rooney's next novel be not-too-different in style to her first three? | 1738454399000 | NGKAYGA41IQSdR5Qxg3N3uQ9BFk1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 60} | 0 | 9.789996395894565 | False | basic | public | 1643113690064 | Uri Bram | Subjectively assessed by me, the next full novel by Sally Rooney will be approximately similar in style to her first three. Example criteria: set in the present day, restrained prose style, realist, involving 3-4 main characters and centred on their relationships with each other.
Jan 25, 12:30pm: for reference, I consider the first three novels to all be stylistically similar, including Beautiful World -- if the next novel is "no more different" from the previous ones than Beautiful World is, the bet to resolve Yes. | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 155.24174696260025} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1000 | UriBram | 1710455549019 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhASSkrfQlhL1Ll6ophPMhdbz6V6KJkMImz1tQ5gw=s96-c | 11 | 1650313838226 | 0 | 5 | 1709218315160 | 1710455548335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2235703478521673 | Eh8zILsYgwYKzbaZ7nbo | {"NO": 121.00529073332613, "YES": 1502.0477272905148} | 0 | will-the-scottish-government-ask-th | 2516.1522079364404 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 35} | Will the Scottish government ask the UK government for a section 30 order, to facilitate a referendum for Scottish independence, by 31-Dec-2022? | 1672531199000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 90, "YES": 35} | 2.777253312986871 | True | play | NO | public | 1643129188355 | Pontifex Minimus | This resolves to YES is the Scottish government have formally asked the UK government for a section 30 order to allow an independence referendum by the end of 2022. For background on what a section 30 order is, see <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50744526>
#politics #UK #Scotland | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 191.31126469708994, "YES": 118.42719282327012} | {"creatorFee": 0.275345523954934, "platformFee": 0.04589092065915567, "liquidityFee": 0.275345523954934} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1676744228799 | 220.27534552395494 | PontifexMinimus | 1676744225516 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 13 | 1650313863150 | 0 | 10 | 14 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478346}, {"name": "Scottish independence", "slug": "scottish-independence", "groupId": "vXvYOfofXo827pYk2I6A", "createdTime": 1658529584891}] | ["scottish-independence", "politics-default"] | 1671909022227 | 1676744224431 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.052974341022059175 | dPZhKrCNHNMHsBLYpACB | {"NO": 118.0995612610823, "YES": 158.5489400036426} | 0 | if-scotland-asks-for-a-section-30-o | 350.8153061642721 | {"NO": 124, "YES": 6} | If Scotland asks for a section 30 order for an independence referendum, will UK grant one in 2022? | 1672531199000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 124, "YES": 6} | 0 | 8.98773503730433 | True | play | NO | public | 1643132553575 | Pontifex Minimus | If Scotland doesn't ask for a section 30 order in 2022, resolves to N/A. If Scotland does ask for a section 30 order, and UK grants it by the end of 2022, resolves to YES. If Scotland asks for a section 30 order, but UK doesn't grant it by the end of 2022, resolves to NO.
Background on a section 30 order: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50744526>
#UK #Scotland #Politics | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 223.51733713517615, "YES": 54.22176684690383} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1681441037102 | 120 | PontifexMinimus | 1715411412546 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 9 | 1650314680712 | 0 | 21 | 9 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529496551}, {"name": "Scottish independence", "slug": "scottish-independence", "groupId": "vXvYOfofXo827pYk2I6A", "createdTime": 1658529585117}, {"name": "Scotland", "slug": "scotland", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "0NcQ0rf4rcCvny12bk3g", "createdTime": 1674031536869}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071679}] | ["scottish-independence", "politics-default", "scotland", "please-resolve"] | 1670084986306 | 1715411410696 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9170197985530786 | KGNrVfLnstMvnSMVBip2 | {"NO": 562.034449699496, "YES": 142.52047047296696} | 1 | will-nicola-sturgeon-be-first-minis | 795.948597719952 | {"NO": 2.999999999999999, "YES": 32} | Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022? | 1672531199000 | 0nmuikwLXrVnaNpqx7wmLHXmaW53 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2.999999999999999, "YES": 32} | 6.584925625322489 | True | play | YES | public | 1643133675218 | Pontifex Minimus | If Nicola Sturgeon is First Minister of Scotland on 31 December 2022, resolves to YES.
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Jan 25, 6:11pm: #Scotland #Politics | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 41.10960958218891, "YES": 128.58849093134268} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1676744204900 | 160 | PontifexMinimus | 1676744204018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzdXRCjZpb0qJdiJ6az8_ZdWc0LJo0xuoND1zpK=s96-c | 6 | 1650314532448 | 0 | 10 | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481673}, {"name": "Scotland", "slug": "scotland", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "0NcQ0rf4rcCvny12bk3g", "createdTime": 1674031536869}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093072205}] | ["politics-default", "scotland", "please-resolve"] | 1672476792320 | 1676744201640 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13984102134492155 | 7MwwlJfkGzgJxWXNifGe | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.13984102134492155 | will-manifold-markets-win-an-emerge | 222.19938233708365 | {"NO": 161.80061766291635, "YES": 42} | Will Manifold Markets win an Emergent Ventures grant? | 1646200799000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 163, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.767250185360564 | True | play | NO | public | 1643142126907 | Austin | https://www.mercatus.org/emergent-ventures . Tyler has expressed skepticism about the amount of demand that prediction markets have; we hope to prove him wrong!
#ManifoldMarkets #Funding
Mar 11, 10:17am: Latest cohort is out: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/emergent-ventures-winners-eighteenth-cohort.html
(we're not in it 😢) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 281.7591419227487, "YES": 113.60722351737073} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1647022625819 | 100 | Austin | 1643142126907 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 9 | 1715657626989 | 0 | 1 | 1646155287379 | 0.13984102134492155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3992346938775511 | cMS9577bYZtp5W1cFiQS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3992346938775511 | will-manifold-markets-win-a-plurali | 40 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 22.5} | Will Manifold Markets win a Pluralism and Civil Exchange grant? | 1646200799000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 17.5, "YES": 22.5} | 0 | 4.919565222634214 | True | play | NO | public | 1643142604322 | Austin | See https://www.mercatus.org/commentary/call-proposals-pluralism-and-civil-exchange
Not sure what the base rate is on proposals getting accepted, or what kind of proposals have been accepted so far. I think Manifold is a great fit but of course I'm quite biased. Note that this is a separate application from Emergent Ventures, though both are associated with the Mercatus Center
#ManifoldMarkets #Funding | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 108.51267207105352, "YES": 88.45903006477067} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1644617175196 | 100 | Austin | 1643142604322 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 4 | 1715658428027 | 0 | 0.3992346938775511 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.499317514003502 | SWXmAR9wqArHftCb7hLU | {"NO": 16.699645842517125, "YES": 635.7934039809023} | 0 | will-jasper-fforde-produce-the-sequ | 612.1614648942104 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 25} | Will Jasper Fforde produce the sequel to Shades of Grey in August of 2022? | 1662091140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.185500013488445 | True | play | NO | public | 1643148168839 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Red Side Story is supposed to appear August 11th. Will any novel length sequel to Shades of Grey be published by Fforde this August? This will resolve yes even if the title changes, or if it appears later than the 11th (but still in August). #books #SF #sciencefiction #fforde", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 106.06601717798213, "YES": 106.06601717798213} | {"creatorFee": 4.717325388625301, "platformFee": 0.2321478814452386, "liquidityFee": 1.3928872886714312} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1662148950654 | 101.39288728867142 | Duncn | 1661717168966 | 0 | 6 | 1650314598682 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1658529559356}] | ["books"] | 1661717168884 | 1652397139546 | 0.025525606740866937 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9438288704216682 | wSL83NJ0voJlIDf2ZM7W | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9438288704216682 | will-ketanji-brown-jackson-be-nomin | 470 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 425} | Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be nominated to fill a Supreme Court seat vacated by Stephen Breyer? | 1646782893079 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 45, "YES": 425} | 0 | 4.69913295218379 | True | play | YES | public | 1643218702182 | Jordan Berman | This market resolves when a nomination is made for the vacancy created by Breyer's retirement. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 135.09256086106296, "YES": 553.7598757584374} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1646782893079 | 100 | smingers | 1643218702182 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 8 | 1715658880527 | 0 | [{"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330762}] | ["scotus"] | 1643403023409 | 0.9438288704216682 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9503806228594933 | zBt7z7fWZ1vDt2hnQC3Z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9503806228594933 | will-the-wayward-falcon-9-booster-h | 1168.396378405331 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 379.60362159466894} | Will the wayward Falcon 9 booster hit the moon on March 4th? | 1646110799000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28, "YES": 382} | 0 | 4.708979757470136 | True | play | YES | public | 1643234799686 | Duncn | There's that wandering booster that's supposed to crash into the moon. Will it? And, will it be on March 4th, as predicted?
#space #moon #science #fun
Jan 26, 5:11pm: https://www.space.com/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-hit-moon-march-2022
Feb 13, 10:14am: This will resolve yes even if the booster in questions is not a Falcon. Just as long as /some/ booster hits the moon. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 113.07077429645558, "YES": 494.84991326262144} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1646689888473 | 100 | Duncn | 1643234799686 | 0 | 12 | 1715658969104 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529536935}] | ["science-default"] | 1645971878032 | 0.9503806228594933 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11993338094649034 | QNvsRqpIeza3Fl9zjUiJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11993338094649034 | will-20-users-create-a-fold-by-feb | 1407.0662938499079 | {"NO": 930.9223776284309, "YES": 322.0113285216612} | Will 20 users create a fold by Feb 10? | 1644559199000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 932, "YES": 320} | 0 | 4.651397548580924 | True | play | NO | public | 1643314461474 | Manifold | Resolves YES if at least 20 users have created a fold before the end of February 10th, 2022.
Feb 11, 12:04am: Looks like 15 unique users created a fold! That's pretty good, but this still resolves NO. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1269.2123546266528, "YES": 468.5398724762847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644559615580 | 100 | Manifold | 1643314461474 | 0 | 17 | 1715658145848 | 0 | 1643694160185 | 0.11993338094649034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33003762575803225 | uuLBzTrNYpKzl5QbIGXd | {"NO": 156.41612451975755, "YES": 235.68281574724278} | 0.24638581839477114 | will-games-workshop-produce-multico | 929.0774013504212 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | Will Games Workshop produce multicoloured miniatures with rules to use them in any of their mainline games (Warhammer 40000 / Age of Sigmar) by 01/01/2026? | 1767221999000 | T1HtuVl5RacflWxCix9AHcAZ6Zw1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 40} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1643314719896 | Viktor Brech | This market resolves to "YES" if, one week after closing, the any wargaming miniature is on sale on www.games-workshop.com that is predominantly made from plastic, and comes in more than two colors out-of-the-box (where more than two colors need be part of the same single humanoid figure). | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517} | {"creatorFee": 0.7598141261514662, "platformFee": 0.12663568769191103, "liquidityFee": 0.7598141261514662} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 180.75981412615147 | ViktorBrech | 1703364631278 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhaLs5reqQbOIS80ZnCoxZneXIaBzmUaAn3rIsofw=s96-c | 8 | 1650314798289 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733561671}, {"name": "Strategy games", "slug": "strategy-games", "groupId": "a50583e9-06a2-431a-bdb7-8968af4a58b9", "createdTime": 1690962064234}] | ["ancient-markets", "strategy-games"] | 1703364630157 | 1684715619973 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.005162922919640445 | MTQ6ULhyuN7a3Kn6bh0m | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.005162922919640445 | will-texas-secede-from-the-us-in-th | 1188 | {"NO": 1167, "YES": 21} | Will Texas secede from the US in the next 50 years? | 1644911999000 | TJAlQr62rUYqVzVdqCQxKqyzS0i2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1167, "YES": 21} | 0 | 4.653191349709247 | True | play | NO | public | 1643318138843 | Peter Hua | Will Texas leave the United States of America as a federal state in the next half-century? | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1284.6707749458615, "YES": 92.54728521139883} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1645128024798 | 100 | PeterHua | 1643318138843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyIdnRBOeaqodgy6GRyarMRjbR7maX0oLGvs-6E=s96-c | 6 | 1715658018374 | 0 | 1 | 1644890721612 | 0.005162922919640445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30216942148760334 | qODPvT3lEnURANzRbzAg | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.30216942148760334 | will-the-next-hearthstone-expansion | 120 | {"NO": 87.5, "YES": 32.5} | Will the next Hearthstone expansion be Pandaria themed? | 1648162376893 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 87.5, "YES": 32.5} | 0 | 4.819494920240895 | True | play | NO | public | 1643388018952 | Nathan Young | The expansion after Alterac Valley. #Hearthstone | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 183.77975949489107, "YES": 120.93386622447825} | {"creatorFee": 1.3000000000000005, "platformFee": 0.3250000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855} | 0 | 1648162376893 | 100 | NathanpmYoung | 1643388018952 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 3 | 1715658734051 | 0 | 1647955480278 | 0.30216942148760334 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7570402594302215 | vAFQs4zmhV2fNoISpH5p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7570402594302215 | will-russia-invades-ukraine-be-abov | 1485.9439088461932 | {"NO": 559.0560911538068, "YES": 749} | Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' be above 70% by Feb 10? | 1644472799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 563, "YES": 749} | 0 | 4.65000235367091 | True | play | YES | public | 1643395424949 | SG | Resolves YES if @NiclasKupper's market "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?" ( https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ ) is at or above 70% at 11:59 pm CT on February 9th, 2022. #Russia #RussiaUkraine #derivatives
Feb 10, 12:13am: Resolved YES. Well done, market manipulators! | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 694.0441744137764, "YES": 1225.1222958536168} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 72.80109889280519, "YES": 68.55654600401044} | 0 | 1644473794007 | 100 | SG | 1643395424949 | 0 | 9 | 1715658846182 | 0 | 1644464572132 | 0.7570402594302215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9011155379977205 | NsYsJjNxQ1ygwF4OY5WN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9011155379977205 | will-russia-invades-ukraine-move-by | 631 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 536} | Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' move by 20% before Feb 10? | 1644472799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 536} | 0 | 4.681238446242611 | True | play | YES | public | 1643398163476 | SG | Resolves YES if the true range in implied probabilities (highest minus lowest implied probability) on @NiclasKupper's market "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?" ( https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ ) is at least 20% from Jan 15, 2022 to February 9th, 2022. #Russia #RussiaUkraine #derivatives #volatility
Jan 28, 2:03pm: FYI, the implied probability was 62% on Jan 15th. And the current probability is 59%. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 229.8695282111137, "YES": 693.9171420277784} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1643482165124 | 100 | SG | 1643398163476 | 0 | 5 | 1715658068584 | 0 | 1643471740698 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17523685356743396 | Zs4l5hpzpsKEwAkfvn3P | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.17523685356743396 | is-ai-a-greater-existential-risk-to | 2014.8195284614567 | {"NO": 1325.1310205675632, "YES": 626.0494509709799} | Is AI a greater existential risk to humanity than a pandemic? | 1644040799000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1324.5, "YES": 625.5} | 0 | 4.639198566544755 | True | play | MKT | public | 1643402362987 | James | I will resolve this market to the current probability (MKT) after trading closes next week.
For example, that means if it ends at 90%, YES bettors will get 90% of the pool and NO bettors would get 10% of the pool, distributed in proportion to each bettor's shares of each pool.
AI existential risk is typically framed as an out-of-control AI intentionally or incidentally taking actions that kill all humans.
Pandemic risk includes both engineered and naturally occurring pathogens including viruses and bacteria that could wipe out humanity. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1862.8097248040979, "YES": 858.6508347380549} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1644047973951 | 100 | JamesGrugett | 1643402362987 | 0 | 11 | 1715658347294 | 0 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1663251471295}] | ["selfresolving"] | 1644037639018 | 0.17523685356743396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.041562007811300095 | T3WBx6cbjkzpaHJSY1Nm | {"NO": 153.22881738647052, "YES": 401.9520280222094} | 0 | will-any-countries-that-are-not-cur | 828.0674009807664 | {"NO": 310.2677624955891, "YES": 25} | Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022? | 1672549199000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 311, "YES": 25} | 0 | 9.62762975544043 | True | play | NO | public | 1643403065632 | Duncn | A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.
#technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 423.6248636092039, "YES": 100} | {"creatorFee": 0.0772614779681331, "platformFee": 0.007322375044108754, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50} | 0 | 1672587919439 | 160 | Duncn | 1670218013187 | 0 | 19 | 1650314602513 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529449108}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125149}] | ["technology-default", "nuclear-risk"] | 1670218013004 | 1665414653073 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9777668659202652 | U0xpWAgrTduOPTTKZPZ0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9777668659202652 | is-a-market-that-always-resolves-to | 277.9860726935513 | {"NO": 6.113927306448691, "YES": 261.9} | Is a market that always resolves to MKT particularly prone to market manipulation? | 1644123599000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6.099999999999998, "YES": 261.9} | 0 | 4.742352179819171 | True | play | YES | public | 1643403927421 | Duncn | Try and convince me otherwise.
#meta #marketmanipulation #sitemechanics
Jan 28, 4:06pm: See https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/is-ai-a-greater-existential-risk-to for an example.
Jan 28, 4:10pm: #Shortterm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 54.8737446745973, "YES": 363.8998802375499} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1644286058669 | 100 | Duncn | 1643403927421 | 0 | 6 | 1715658219856 | 0 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1663251457731}] | ["selfresolving"] | 1643938696932 | 0.9777668659202652 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11119435642196372 | WiVPNz4LUFVW7eWlyqJ8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11119435642196372 | will-axie-infinitys-battles-v3-axie | 15296.051605780607 | {"NO": 9484.5, "YES": 2263.448394219393} | Will Axie Infinity's Battles V3 "Axie: Origin" launch prior to the end of Q1 2022 (March 31) | 1648697212480 | 8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 9484.5, "YES": 2287.5} | 0 | 4.619331599605785 | True | play | NO | public | 1643433048127 | BowTrix | This market will resolve to "YES" if a playable version of Axie: Origin is available at any date prior to March 31. If this does not occur, it will resolve to "NO". | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 11169.82980080388, "YES": 3950.7952836308045} | {"creatorFee": 90.53793576877582, "platformFee": 22.634483942193956, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386} | 0 | 1648697212480 | 100 | BowTrix | 1643433048127 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c | 14 | 1715658275577 | 0 | 1648696660002 | 0.11119435642196372 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.010313654025373993 | FRvNxZ3wFiY1tmMJQOrn | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.010313654025373993 | will-the-worldometers-covid-counter-8c6a7cdaeb4a | 10947.375220357439 | {"NO": 4162.6555277644, "YES": 163.96925187816146} | Will the Worldometers Covid counter register 1,000,000 US deaths before March 15? | 1647403140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 4135, "YES": 172} | 0 | 4.6263512275716625 | True | play | NO | public | 1643464736033 | Duncn | Will https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ show at least 1,000,000 US deaths before the end of the day on January 31st? #Covid #US
Jan 29, 1:13pm: Correction to the description: end of the day, March 15.
Close date updated to 2022-03-15 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 4403.738277593733, "YES": 449.5510229121252} | {"creatorFee": 7.664991185702473, "platformFee": 1.9162477964256182, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1647436134275 | 100 | Duncn | 1643464736033 | 0 | 23 | 1715657842617 | 0 | 1 | 1647207825894 | 0.010313654025373993 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.504684143587781 | 40MKkTmSOSYJttfHFzmN | {"NO": 72.57372189709318, "YES": 338.6698049514817} | 0 | will-the-us-quits-rate-be-below-25 | 2033.8721111436616 | {"NO": 290, "YES": 1240} | Will the US quits rate be below 2.5% at the end of 2022 | 1675065599000 | UDtma0GdHvankZVH0RBQJI0HPcH2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 290, "YES": 1240} | 0 | 2.2386999871816573 | True | play | NO | public | 1643491323194 | James Dillard | This market will resolve to yes if the US quits rate for December 2022 is lower than 2.5% (as tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and reported in February 2023).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 554.9774770204643, "YES": 1532.6121492406353} | {"creatorFee": 3.862665323880489, "platformFee": 0.07701978217950893, "liquidityFee": 0.46211869307705356} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1675604647928 | 200.46211869307706 | jdilla | 1675265019058 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c | 22 | 1650313791501 | 0 | 2 | 21 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564352}] | ["economics-default"] | 1675065585155 | 1675265015807 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2889892161588527 | x8Mtn7fe3wsQ68C6xTAO | {"NO": 760.1371056944121, "YES": 5395.822683770229} | 0 | will-the-cyber-truck-go-into-full-p | 19441.129851738813 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 66} | Will the cyber truck go into full production in 2023? | 1702871999000 | kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 66} | 0.0011991129632087604 | 0.4535002515119464 | True | basic | NO | public | 1643546315722 | Dan Sparkman | Same rules. Edge cases resolve no.
Feb 1, 4:56pm:
Full production in 2022 resolves yes.
As long as they are still in full production in 2023. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 168.52299546352717, "YES": 165.21501142450708} | {"creatorFee": 1.7401648069529783, "platformFee": 0.18557921363611857, "liquidityFee": 1.1134752818167113} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1702873347744 | 1431.1134752818166 | DanSparkman | 1710451960698 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c | 5 | 161 | 1650314817126 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti"}] | ["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "automotive"] | 0.16468702347338812 | 1702870462737 | 1701703028785 | 0.05 | kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.194036166959959 | 3QicUEAK34FYKgqVqruF | {"NO": 910.0898114285675, "YES": 1248.9816647340886} | 0.14924501245454627 | will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 | 3082.1982353795847 | {"NO": 185.3574566607488, "YES": 23} | Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024? | 1725335999000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 186, "YES": 23} | 0 | 9.753733176216366 | False | basic | public | 1643572282609 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-If the 2024 games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -Silver and bronze medals do not count, it must be gold.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-The athlete must have been assigned \"male\" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the gold medal specifically in the women's division.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc. Even if an athlete had not transitioned at all, they can still count for this question.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned \"male\" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned \"male\" at birth unless there is strong evidence they were, or personal accounts.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an \"athlete\" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion. Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The two questions in this serious so far are:|", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Mar 16, 1:35pm: Charlie asks how to evaluate given different degrees of being \"out\". If they allow non-trans men to compete with women, I'll count that (just to keep resolvability high). If a trans-woman athlete wins but we can't tell they were born male, then I won't include them.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 13, 11:38pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in the 2024 games?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 290.8674805674271, "YES": 102.37397045461796} | {"creatorFee": 1.435525022953415, "platformFee": 0.9165397102196742, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1716480238088 | 1.1 | 1 | 40 | 1650313787325 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395891}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1663660451352}] | ["sports-default", "lgbtqia"] | 0.11454326245180367 | 1716480234530 | 1670992786725 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7195903852966261 | 9Dz32SmWfuE8VuD9hBug | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7195903852966261 | will-any-us-state-excel-its-previou | 718.9267582781631 | {"NO": 231.5, "YES": 419.5732417218369} | Will any US state excel its previous best for standardized test scores in 2021? | 1646114399000 | 4ULThhX5krRSzTnDnl97sUwqP9q2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 231.5, "YES": 433.5} | 0 | 4.679528200377423 | True | play | NO | public | 1643572389812 | John Buridan | This market resolves to Yes if any US State reports an average 2021 test score in mathematics for either 4th or 8th grade that exceeds their 2019 score.
Mar 1, 2:20pm:
Closed.
I am still compiling data. Give me one week to share data and resolve.
Mar 9, 8:24pm: I will post link to the resolution data tomorrow. Nebraska didn't report their scores, but did acknowledge a learning decrease, so I'm counting that as a 'No'. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 397.72119909102105, "YES": 637.125468196139} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 80.6225774829855, "YES": 59.16079783099616} | 0 | 1646879038348 | 100 | JohnBuridan | 1643572389812 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxb5v_Qp-0nP0Vz0-lntj5iOLkv3mo7F-wfrxJK=s96-c | 11 | 1715657664698 | 0 | 1 | 1645475050678 | 0.7195903852966261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8674644996849763 | 1F9OmScE3wrkEGMjZR5N | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8674644996849763 | leveraged-feb-10-will-russia-invade | 641.6397307247241 | {"NO": 151.3602692752758, "YES": 441} | Leveraged (Feb 10): Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022? | 1644472799000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 146, "YES": 441} | 0 | 4.6848001337643 | True | play | YES | public | 1643599025643 | SG | Resolves PROB with the leveraged probability of @NiclasKupper's market "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?" ( https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ ) at midnight CT on Feb 10, 2022.
Definition of leveraged probability: Let p_start be the implied probability of the underlying at the time of the creation of this market (i.e. 58%), and let p_end be the implied probability of the underlying at the end of this market (Feb 10). If p_end > = p_start, then the leveraged probability used for the settlement of this contract is p_start + sqrt(p_end - p_start). If p_end < p_start, then the leveraged probability is p_start - sqrt(p_start - p_end). If the leveraged probability is greater than 99.5%, this contract will resolve YES; if less than 0.5%, NO. #derivatives #gamma #leverage #RussiaUkraine
Feb 10, 12:18am: The implied probability of the underlying contract at midnight was 78%. Since .58 + sqrt(.78 - .58) > 1, this contract resolves YES. Market behavior looks a little suspicious though... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 252.05670176721537, "YES": 644.8489447654897} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 64.80740698407861, "YES": 76.15773105863907} | 0 | 1644474393111 | 100 | SG | 1643599025643 | 0 | 7 | 1715656890352 | 0 | 0.8674644996849763 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.84 | 241RhInr064MMpSjddAL | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.84 | how-many-additional-subscribers-wil | 1772.5160505357544 | {"NO": 162.36109132272372, "YES": 1057.1228581415219} | How many additional subscribers will my newsletter have by the end of February? | 1646114399000 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 92, "YES": 1141} | 0 | 4.652299963865566 | True | play | MKT | public | 1643669685843 | Nuño Sempere | This market resolves to the number of subscribers over 800 that my newsletter has by end of February 2022. E.g., if I gain 10 subscribers, this market resolves to 10%. If I loose subscribers or if I get more than 100 new ones, this market resolves to 0% or 100% respectively. Past data can be seen here: https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1488282463067594754
and the newsletter I'm talking about is https://forecasting.substack.com/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 203.00327795461232, "YES": 1303.774352422016} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1646161177196 | 100 | NuñoSempere | 1643669685843 | 0 | 13 | 1715656910356 | 0 | 1 | 1644274301969 | 0.84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12783868220797337 | mBL4ntkwwlD42VhzW3M5 | {"NO": 177.95162890861445, "YES": 1825.1450917905318} | 0 | will-bidens-approval-rating-as-per | 8410.455667213719 | {"NO": 905, "YES": 233.98509150319512} | 1. Will Biden’s approval rating (as per 538) be greater than 50% at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 905, "YES": 229} | 0 | 3.549426591884237 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687839469 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1112.7136013405946, "YES": 544.9334806733998} | {"creatorFee": 2.53034399987384, "platformFee": 0.2962755916298533, "liquidityFee": 1.77765354977912} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1675287372575 | 241.77765354977913 | ACXBot | 1672488836770 | 0 | 51 | 1650314745107 | 0 | 7 | 48 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856953}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529503679}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293904463}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672488836585 | 1646726074099 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12861245871582455 | f15G6FYHOf17zdfDH9GJ | {"NO": 123.69489358516543, "YES": 894.5807443903093} | 0 | will-there-be-at-least-250-million | 2056.0895773054535 | {"NO": 480.32129458019847, "YES": 141} | 2. Will there be at least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US in 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 482, "YES": 141} | 0 | 3.89453571446509 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687839983 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 649.7564236041482, "YES": 313.24271739339764} | {"creatorFee": 7.120355871608291, "platformFee": 0.27910330744598794, "liquidityFee": 1.5738975194878357} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1675287405644 | 161.57389751948784 | ACXBot | 1670085114860 | 0 | 40 | 1650314695938 | 0 | 7 | 39 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529497932}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293921553}] | ["politics-default", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1670085114748 | 1658114434026 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.858230425153785 | go914qD9GjuIyWcJOP3E | {"NO": 1333.807030960962, "YES": 176.02183356511995} | 1 | will-predictit-think-joe-biden-is-t | 2909.130961499096 | {"NO": 76, "YES": 230.32736288507948} | 3. Will PredictIt think Joe Biden is the most likely 2024 Dem nominee by the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 76, "YES": 232} | 0 | 3.2574997731525026 | True | play | YES | public | 1643687840481 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 185.06755523321746, "YES": 361.734606900063} | {"creatorFee": 3.343562645044286, "platformFee": 0.20667536930964253, "liquidityFee": 1.2400522158578553} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1675287422398 | 241.24005221585787 | ACXBot | 1672380712946 | 0 | 38 | 1650314710693 | 0 | 7 | 36 | [{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856964}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529499336}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293884207}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672380712778 | 1661283356743 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2925194330883417 | rNJHw7DH4TA12WXjeGHO | {"NO": 196.12903403163858, "YES": 2651.8887718331644} | 0 | will-predictit-think-donald-trump-i | 5341.612502369632 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 277} | 4. Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 95, "YES": 277} | 0 | 1.460850354812946 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687840941 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 232.1529668128323, "YES": 410.9610687157605} | {"creatorFee": 13.711999551580305, "platformFee": 0.1865253957571972, "liquidityFee": 1.1191523745431833} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1675287460381 | 521.1191523745432 | ACXBot | 1672549916243 | 0 | 62 | 1650314778191 | 0 | 7 | 57 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798971843}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507242}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529439084}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293942266}] | ["politics-default", "magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672549916143 | 1671074342449 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9921940268997127 | ceuFVnCJbajHYHqXKZDB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9921940268997127 | will-the-beijing-olympics-happen-su | 1248.8842566732187 | {"NO": 6.370850063953668, "YES": 472.7448932628275} | 5. Will the Beijing Olympics happen successfully on schedule? | 1647897019593 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 7, "YES": 473} | 0 | 4.697864846438597 | True | play | YES | public | 1643687841471 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Mar 21, 4:10pm: The Manifold team has decided to resolve this early. (If on the off chance, Scott decides the outcome of this question differently, we will reimburse traders.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 51.16569723252412, "YES": 576.8510341462865} | {"creatorFee": 0.24462973307124875, "platformFee": 0.061157433267812186, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 10.000000000000005, "YES": 99.498743710662} | 0 | 1647897019593 | 100 | ACXBot | 1643687841471 | 0 | 27 | 1715658439415 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405703}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675297053403}] | ["sports-default", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1644762651107 | 0.9921940268997127 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9903903412441359 | Xydcz7oCHIoab5u0PQJW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9903903412441359 | will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse | 28287.559629274132 | {"NO": 204.42340426982742, "YES": 7296.0169664560435} | 6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022? | 1647896936743 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 101, "YES": 7357} | 0 | 4.62167710877479 | True | play | YES | public | 1643687841892 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Mar 21, 4:08pm: The Manifold team has decided to resolve this early. (If on the off chance, Scott decides the outcome of this question differently, we will reimburse traders.) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 745.0625578773775, "YES": 7563.8333941070405} | {"creatorFee": 5.780058565155185, "platformFee": 1.4450146412887963, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1647896936743 | 100 | ACXBot | 1643687841892 | 0 | 42 | 1715658311017 | 0 | [{"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1702947892739}] | ["acx-2022-predictions"] | 1647629813669 | 0.9903903412441359 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08642075527302058 | dqRIMTJ9TJ2oo9Dxx2ep | {"NO": 144.22727792361025, "YES": 452.67954205731735} | 0 | will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-b7056bbf21be | 923.0489983314354 | {"NO": 367, "YES": 55.71576624370414} | 7. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict in 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 367, "YES": 66} | 0 | 6.313178178124243 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687842342 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 491.4951524555766, "YES": 177.94461889141851} | {"creatorFee": 0.49543031303079876, "platformFee": 0.08257171883846647, "liquidityFee": 0.49543031303079876} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1675287475315 | 160.4954303130308 | ACXBot | 1672161012774 | 0 | 23 | 1650314684047 | 0 | 7 | 22 | [{"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670787794246}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1659859269701}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293862075}] | ["arabisraeli-conflict", "israel", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672161012648 | 1646947872133 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12785346554815624 | ukixaO7xaAzm2UPMu8hT | {"NO": 279.62207281673386, "YES": 779.8321641963809} | 0 | will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse-435705c69623 | 5042.570610836977 | {"NO": 984.0008772519, "YES": 266} | 8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 985, "YES": 266} | 0 | 2.5296495726831787 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687842755 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1232.7130114430122, "YES": 550.3825942015245} | {"creatorFee": 6.478771572911236, "platformFee": 0.34483855782789496, "liquidityFee": 2.0090839820813677} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1675287615201 | 322.0090839820814 | ACXBot | 1672261763174 | 0 | 59 | 1650314796981 | 0 | 7 | 54 | [{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1662529731246}, {"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1660934639155}, {"name": "Pelosi Taiwan visit", "slug": "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "uB4QeEnBjdn9XyvGRCzR", "createdTime": 1659376428688}, {"name": "Pacific Rim ", "slug": "pacific-rim", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qlbzTuOA4oc125E1ZoiB", "createdTime": 1659006734543}, {"name": "Taiwan ", "slug": "taiwan", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1658950084253}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561664}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293842728}] | ["china", "taiwan", "pacific-rim", "pelosi-taiwan-visit", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672261763056 | 1662085312613 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3317178772490185 | LvZUa5EuGFbw8Phmuzq1 | {"NO": 148.29047232804845, "YES": 595.5518856730641} | 0 | will-honduran-zedes-be-legally-crip | 1720.841859755336 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 52} | 9. Will Honduran ZEDEs be legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further in 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 115, "YES": 52} | 0 | 1.786072117403283 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687843118 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 218.81499034572562, "YES": 153} | {"creatorFee": 0.6047562508562307, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898} | 0 | 1675287624480 | 240 | ACXBot | 1672349674301 | 0 | 21 | 1650314546390 | 0 | 7 | 20 | [{"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293830941}] | ["acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672349674125 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1706125907996084 | X6ED2Ojeg1slro9iiqzq | {"NO": 150.01559535371436, "YES": 627.7524196649707} | 0 | will-there-be-a-new-zede-approved-i | 1195.8915748501954 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 30} | 10. Will there be a new ZEDE approved in Honduras in 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 30} | 0 | 3.172045793905363 | True | play | NO | public | 1643687843548 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103323} | {"creatorFee": 1.5611015782836257, "platformFee": 0.19016073991465204, "liquidityFee": 1.1409644394879122} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1675287709543 | 201.1409644394879 | ACXBot | 1672235649091 | 0 | 11 | 1650314627591 | 0 | 7 | 12 | [{"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293820342}] | ["acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672235648919 | 1654226376827 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3064645177306408 | VW2VQqJE5145R24WlgRO | {"NO": 294.6438275424898, "YES": 13538.007040305827} | 0 | will-gamestops-stock-price-still-be | 51719.90752188116 | {"NO": 198.34614074738306, "YES": 253.21682364195857} | 11. Will Gamestop’s stock price still be above $100 at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 195, "YES": 256} | 0 | 0.9641195952574777 | True | basic | NO | public | 1643688060807 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 355.53868217717206, "YES": 421.6799131588769} | {"creatorFee": 37.24697843619084, "platformFee": 0.517316436381536, "liquidityFee": 2.991834989452369} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1675287979415 | 1042.9918349894524 | ACXBot | 1672552356511 | 0 | 1 | 137 | 1650314617755 | 0 | 7 | 118 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529571095}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1684861270988}] | ["economics-default", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672552355784 | 1670730495591 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09085070266591685 | hSmvi3qp6za5pQcKsngH | {"NO": 278.84655372691793, "YES": 4687.476591216379} | 0 | will-bitcoin-be-above-100k-at-the-e | 12670.38454142653 | {"NO": 1410.1686487411564, "YES": 365.398131877605} | 12. Will Bitcoin be above $100k at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1412, "YES": 378} | 0 | 3.3965507610585925 | True | play | NO | public | 1643688061238 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1645.6287325605945, "YES": 899.8093259861428} | {"creatorFee": 23.165802467375723, "platformFee": 1.6020156145261655, "liquidityFee": 8.823719870648924} | {"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796} | 0 | 1675287986355 | 368.823719870649 | ACXBot | 1675028752377 | 0 | 95 | 1650314714773 | 0 | 7 | 84 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529442363}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293784397}] | ["crypto-prices", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672415226328 | 1675028749670 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8826244892792303 | Po1Xd0S3tkRhm2tE7aRO | {"NO": 872.0193182337773, "YES": 142.22708062076165} | 1 | will-ethereum-be-above-005-btc-at-t | 2545.1964077105363 | {"NO": 24, "YES": 180} | 14. Will Ethereum be above 0.05 BTC at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 24, "YES": 180} | 0 | 4.659302883120354 | True | play | YES | public | 1643688061675 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 99.97999799959995, "YES": 287.08883642524313} | {"creatorFee": 4.492562477276942, "platformFee": 0.2457295838632001, "liquidityFee": 1.4743775031792004} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1675287999996 | 181.4743775031792 | ACXBot | 1673387547562 | 0 | 28 | 1650314574956 | 0 | 7 | 27 | [{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1658529441741}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1684941859281}] | ["crypto-prices", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672415240280 | 1673387543313 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.795447298755119 | qr6q1KLpJorpR7hl3DNK | {"NO": 1113.2229847485098, "YES": 79.1333148098437} | 1 | will-the-bored-ape-floor-price-be-b | 3652.8636315117374 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 235} | 15. Will the Bored Ape floor price be below the current price of $203K according to CoinGecko at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 235} | 0 | 3.6627891723044046 | True | play | YES | public | 1643688062132 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 293.59836511806395, "YES": 373.3965720249719} | {"creatorFee": 14.993207260374863, "platformFee": 0.9278579532529173, "liquidityFee": 5.567147719517504} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1675293980023 | 160.03560232965873 | ACXBot | 1672481961357 | 0 | 33 | 1650314773465 | 0 | 7 | 30 | [{"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675294020774}] | ["acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672481961148 | 1659484058473 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3426660755064915 | mkqxeLvmJZPHHJHES2lc | {"NO": 49.8258229450764, "YES": 1164.4537659502257} | 0 | will-the-dow-be-above-35k-at-the-en | 2641.181594209637 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 140} | 16. Will the Dow be above $35k at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 140} | 0 | 3.3382024082649817 | True | play | NO | public | 1643688062621 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 146.9693845669907, "YES": 249.99999999999997} | {"creatorFee": 7.798142961578079, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1675288059095 | 220 | ACXBot | 1710222354465 | 0 | 17 | 1650314749467 | 0 | 7 | 14 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5"}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI"}] | ["stocks", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672481814657 | 1658117468078 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2850217747011179 | DTSugqWbTLwoKA15bnqF | {"NO": 74.49863365882177, "YES": 1289.3655177086462} | 0 | will-the-dow-be-above-375k-at-the-e | 3293.105216555948 | {"NO": 312, "YES": 288.4007932305676} | 17. Will the Dow be above $37.5k at the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 312, "YES": 292} | 0 | 3.09068880777182 | True | play | NO | public | 1643688063084 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 511.30414621347666, "YES": 478.67456713608266} | {"creatorFee": 5.156690722062901, "platformFee": 0.43904662163571145, "liquidityFee": 2.634279729814269} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1675288068722 | 182.63427972981427 | ACXBot | 1672365676014 | 0 | 31 | 1650313854662 | 0 | 7 | 32 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566712}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293773504}] | ["economics-default", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1672365675896 | 1658117504309 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1450115841068868 | AlAS9779nksUr3Ec5orp | {"NO": 171.77412010863918, "YES": 686.9109128885093} | 0 | will-inflation-be-below-5-for-the-y | 3176.7709734992377 | {"NO": 749, "YES": 386.5270928328265} | 18. Will inflation be below 5% for the year of 2022? | 1672552740000 | Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 749, "YES": 390} | 0 | 2.4908225189175472 | True | play | NO | public | 1643688063578 | ACX Bot | From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1051.2096976457399, "YES": 649.2190452378055} | {"creatorFee": 1.2051865146003196, "platformFee": 0.1414732205337548, "liquidityFee": 0.7662458907324258} | {"NO": 31.62277660168379, "YES": 94.86832980505137} | 0 | 1675288077290 | 220.76624589073242 | ACXBot | 1671505407222 | 0 | 48 | 1650313835403 | 0 | 7 | 44 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529566111}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293957868}] | ["economics-default", "acx-2022-predictions"] | 1671505407070 | 1647630022137 | 0.04 |
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