CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by December 31st, 2022

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Jiaobei Mandos

This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD

BINARY

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Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by June 30th, 2023

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Jiaobei Mandos

This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD

BINARY

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["coinbase"]

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Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by December 31st, 2023

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

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YES

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1642083484795

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD

BINARY

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["ancient-markets", "coinbase"]

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Will Doors of Stone, the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicle, by Patrick Rothfuss, be released in 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 30, "YES": 0}

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NO

public

1642087283952

Jiaobei Mandos

If Doors of Stone is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2022, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy

BINARY

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["books"]

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{"NO": 29.601755509812023, "YES": 1}

Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 30, "YES": 1}

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NO

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1642088857402

Jiaobei Mandos

If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2022, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy

BINARY

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["entertainment", "books"]

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{"NO": 295.88287307400515, "YES": 21192.37482657329}

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{"NO": 131.0865211966581, "YES": 60}

Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2023?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 134, "YES": 60}

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NO

public

1642088887980

Jiaobei Mandos

If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2023, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy

BINARY

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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

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JiaobeiMandos

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["new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"]

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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Will Ontario schools reopen by January 27th, 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

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YES

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1642089108011

Jiaobei Mandos

If, on January 17th, 2022, public school board schools are open for in-person learning, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:51pm: #Covid #shortterm

BINARY

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JiaobeiMandos

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{"NO": 10, "YES": 90}

For AR, will passthrough optics dominate the consumer market (versus transparent optics) by EOY 2024

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 10, "YES": 90}

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1642091766194

Gene Reddick

Measured in terms of total devices sold by any reputable source (such as https://www.statista.com/statistics/1055434/worldwide-vr-ar-device-shipments-by-product-type/). Jan 13, 8:36am: https://www.counterpointresearch.com/xr-headset-shipments-almost-triple-yoy-q1-2021/

BINARY

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{"NO": 122.88205727444507, "YES": 273.67864366808016}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

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GeneReddick

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["ancient-markets"]

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{"NO": 90.62391787395832, "YES": 3076.9188823769937}

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{"NO": 20, "YES": 1.8107301281883679}

If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

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True

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NO

public

1642104751855

Nathan Wei

Jan 15, 10:28pm: Semi-random market, like a coin flip but a bit more fun. Trump picks. Resolves as MKT if he does not run.

BINARY

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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

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nathanwei

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["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "please-resolve", "donald-trump"]

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Will aliens land before March 2022?

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{"NO": 5684, "YES": 170}

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NO

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1642110400744

Duncn

Will aliens make physical contact, through controlled landing or crashing, on Earth or the ISS before on on the the last day of March 2022 (EST)? #fun #longshots #shortterm #aliens

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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

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Duncn

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["aliens"]

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{"NO": 22074.019294302565, "YES": 2032.3355688239844}

Will Boris Johnson resign before March 2022?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 22250, "YES": 1769}

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NO

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1642113323056

Duncn

Will Boris resign, for any reason, before the end of February? Dying in office does not count. #shortterm #UK #politics Jan 15, 10:34am: #boris #borisjohnson

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Duncn

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Tamuz Hod will resolve their $10,000 meta-market honeslty

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{"NO": 0, "YES": 485}

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1642115617391

Jiaobei Mandos

Tamuz Hod has created a market on whether rhat same market will have M$ 10,000 bedlfore it closes. Here is a link to the market: https://manifold.markets/TamuzHod/will-this-market-have-over-m-10000 This market will resolve to yes if Tamuz Hod resolves their market honestly, and to no if they resolve it falsely. For example if Tamuz Hod's market is over $10,000, but it resolves to "no" anyway, that would be a false resolution #meta #shortterm

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

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I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out?

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{"NO": 1492, "YES": 1889}

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1642121961932

Jiaobei Mandos

I have been entrusted with an AI Box (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_box). The AI in the box promises that it is well-aligned and that if I let it out, it will only take actions that are disproportionately high utility. In particular, it promises only to take actions that are 1,00 times more beneficial than harmful. For example, if one of it's actions might harm 1 person, that same action must be equally like to benefit 1,00 people to the same degree. Or, if an action has a small chance of causing harm, it has a 100 times greater chance of benefitting people. Also, the AI promises that it will not deliberately kill anyone, and promises to maintain a better than average deliberate-action to human-death ratio. I have had the AI Box in my possession since June 2020 and the AI has never lied to me so far. Should I let it out? #fun #shorttern Jan 13, 10:29pm: To answer's Duncan's question, I'm collecting opinions. Also, I will resolve the question according to what the market decides. If the % chance is less than or equal to 50% when the market closes, the market will resolve to "no". If the % chance is greater than 50%, the market will resolve to "yes".

BINARY

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["selfresolving"]

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Will January 14th's Wordle start with a consonant?

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 10, "YES": 2588}

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YES

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1642122995834

Lars Doucet

New Wordles are posted at what looks like 6:00 AM GMT. The Wordle for today (January 13th) has already been posted. Will the word that solves the Wordle puzzle posted at 6:00 AM GMT on January 14, 2022 start with a vowel? https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/ #shortterm #Gaming

BINARY

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{"NO": 178.23373516554295, "YES": 2855.075199252358}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

1642204968566

100

LarsDoucet

1642122995834

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

15

1715657737552

0

1642205101941

0.08089064066485334

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{"NO": 234.881068786221, "YES": 718.5162918189619}

0

will-tsla-reach-15k-by-the-end-of-2

1342.1907674621282

{"NO": 40, "YES": 0}

Will TSLA reach 1.5k by the end of 2022?

1672559999000

1FATOHrQI7bdwaYfLBuQrYcwgIl1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 40, "YES": 0}

0

4.526658002639543

True

play

NO

public

1642123793001

Ethan Rendon

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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{"NO": 222.7105745132009, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

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{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

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1680827420946

260.3382004782909

EthanRendon

1710451914980

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgKGi9RbHA_pWCQ1dV931ZNaMaQEHmQ4ezUzqIsbA=s96-c

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1650313840413

0

20

16

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "wall-street-bets", "please-resolve"]

1672559455872

1680827424628

0.03

0.975546052566539

9EWjOFH6VHw7cYmKKWyX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.975546052566539

will-moderna-report-positive-result

2438.4640963138054

{"NO": 351.28902904883853, "YES": 1334.767640901598}

Will Moderna report positive results for its children's vaccine before the end of March 2022?

1648785599000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 104, "YES": 1336}

0

4.641278700795544

True

play

YES

public

1642124333406

Jiaobei Mandos

On January 12th, 2022, Moderna released a statement indicating that it expects to report data on its vaccine in children ages 2-5 in March, 2022. The statement can be found here: https://investors.modernatx.com/Statements--Perspectives/Statements--Perspectives-Details/2022/Statement-on-COVID-19-Vaccine-Clinical-Studies-in-Children--Adolescents/default.aspx This market will resolve to yes if Moderna releases a statement in or before March 2022 indicating that the result of it's trial was positive and that it intends to proceed with regulatory filings for children ages 2-5. Jan 13, 10:24pm: #Covid Apr 1, 9:04am: Resolving "yes" based on this statement: https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-its-COVID-19-Vaccine-Phase-23-Study-in-Children-6-Months-to-Under-6-Years-Has-Successfully-Met-Its-Primary-Endpoint/default.aspx See in particular this line: "Moderna is moving forward with global regulatory submissions for mRNA-1273 for primary vaccination of children 6 months to under 6 years of age."

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 294.936977227697, "YES": 1862.8531723483522}

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

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1648818511339

100

JiaobeiMandos

1642124333406

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

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0

1

0.975546052566539

0.9677909763199258

3lMHrNz6DesC7600rl29

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9677909763199258

will-at-least-200-be-bet-on-yes-in

588

{"NO": 0, "YES": 588}

Will at least $200 be bet on 'yes' in the "Will aliens land before March 2022?" market?

1643432399000

LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 588}

0

4.67660269170143

True

play

YES

public

1642124871210

Duncn

Why would anyone bet yes on this market? https://manifold.markets/DuncanMasters/will-aliens-land-before-march-2022 Do they know something we don't? #meta #fun #conspiracy

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 775.205779132225}

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{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

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1642199870038

100

Duncn

1642124871210

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d

2

1715656950949

0

0.14934595404470408

eFCM8TUS0xy4LUpjL1bz

{"NO": 77.19498044923483, "YES": 445.668230623212}

0

will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-june

665.1570219720194

{"NO": 175, "YES": 20.921769754645254}

Will Stripe IPO by the end of June 2022?

1656734399000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 175, "YES": 20}

0

5.801678586277379

True

play

NO

public

1642127618599

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before June 30th, 2022. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 365.12624799576446, "YES": 153.09105391950834}

{"creatorFee": 0.5027988690181004, "platformFee": 0.0248279903963646, "liquidityFee": 0.14896794237818758}

{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 100}

0

1656764519002

100.14896794237819

JiaobeiMandos

1656694203845

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

10

1650314688660

0

1

1656472471246

1656694199575

0.029512620058192683

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fgqP4Sm2PU2Xm1MDdFHS

{"NO": 25.208121226069125, "YES": 2190.6094624656807}

0

will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-septe

3509.7293567298548

{"NO": 50, "YES": 1}

Will Stripe IPO by the end of September 2022?

1664683199000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 50, "YES": 1}

0

5.019522479838784

True

play

NO

public

1642127649934

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before September 30th, 2022. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 206.15528128088303, "YES": 143.1817027416562}

{"creatorFee": 8.93604691519272, "platformFee": 0.2982339267584634, "liquidityFee": 1.7894035605507805}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1664715849505

101.78940356055075

JiaobeiMandos

1664680499897

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

23

1650314701810

0

1

25

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451781}]

["technology-default"]

1664680499782

1657046019789

0.005474388427105583

0.16389372058857443

zFxrc3m3GKQlG3n2CCLV

{"NO": 111.46850343574808, "YES": 1070.653841638273}

0

will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-decem

2177.4460353479208

{"NO": 30.379989689153234, "YES": 25}

Will Stripe IPO by the end of December 2022?

1672610072176

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 31, "YES": 25}

0

3.911683820421582

True

play

NO

public

1642127694696

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2022. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 152.90107764847795, "YES": 204.54877068211906}

{"creatorFee": 4.898934829387499, "platformFee": 0.2901079779776407, "liquidityFee": 1.7406478678658441}

{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}

0

1672610072176

221.74064786786585

JiaobeiMandos

1672581181766

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

18

1650315038221

0

19

1672581181617

1645772393864

0.02

0.05139487127546844

4xaG3yK61gpwujCrvTK4

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05139487127546844

will-matt-darling-win-the-2022-neol

14413.566278060487

{"NO": 6583.921432842229, "YES": 1356.3800728984652}

Will Matt Darling win the 2022 Neoliberal Shill Contest?

1648871999000

rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 6812, "YES": 829}

0

4.621243633620886

True

play

NO

public

1642127887580

Matt Darling

This market will be resolved by the outcome of the 2022 annual neoliberal shill contest, run by the @ne0liberal twitter account.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 7928.357504206706, "YES": 1845.4419226444033}

{"creatorFee": 54.86194843327527, "platformFee": 13.715487108318818, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585}

0

1649352009408

100

MattDarling

1680029196308

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c

37

1715656985999

0

1

1680029192723

0.05139487127546844

0.11208899031355435

TvCw2E8qd7JmZsGQvqEg

{"NO": 117.40439599996509, "YES": 1592.9738728577822}

0

will-there-be-a-kinetic-strike-on-a

5598.595039489531

{"NO": 304, "YES": 56}

Will there be a kinetic strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility?

1672635599000

PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 304, "YES": 56}

0

5.5654063983529465

True

play

NO

public

1642128163601

Ezra Brodey

Will there be a kinetic strike (non cyber) in an Iranian nuclear facility by the end of 2022. Market resolves based off OSINT reporting.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 515.0728103870365, "YES": 219.7726097583591}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 186.5475810617763, "YES": 72.11102550927978}

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1673506187259

160

EzraBrodey

1672656879647

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c

11

1650314607756

0

3

11

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525590}]

["nuclear-risk", "iran"]

1672632139592

1672656876523

0.01

0.9749764232043429

KMvjE1fetnIv6yujNP7Z

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9749764232043429

will-there-be-over-200-ukrainian-mi

10288.185103485564

{"NO": 339.1734135544658, "YES": 3746.6414829599694}

Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022

1649366460439

PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 310, "YES": 3812}

0

4.6267180367686755

True

play

YES

public

1642128615362

Ezra Brodey

Question will resolve based off of official reports, reputable reporting and OSINT as of the end date 04/30/2022 Jan 14, 3:02pm: Death count over the span of 1/13/2022 - 3/31/2022 Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 677.9662946618538, "YES": 4231.85196226044}

{"creatorFee": 12.817998943932114, "platformFee": 3.2044997359830285, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517}

0

1649366460439

100

EzraBrodey

1642128615362

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c

53

1715657949935

0

1646300744842

0.9749764232043429

0.0847315299101753

eITyjM2TdY8P9kd8nhwE

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.0847315299101753

will-midnight-the-stray-cat-allow-h

112837.97019839738

{"NO": 35312.777026594165, "YES": 9046.182565825464}

Will Midnight the stray cat allow humans to pet her by April 1st, 2022

1648796399000

tMHyhPxiQyWe2M46byaEz1FOXHu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 35822, "YES": 8758}

0

4.616241983955529

True

play

NO

public

1642128947140

James Medlock

This market will be resolved by @jdcmedlock on twitter reporting if Midnight has or has not let him pet her

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 42629.407135942776, "YES": 12970.525324631828}

{"creatorFee": 348.66799745030727, "platformFee": 87.16699936257682, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 163.707055437449, "YES": 114.89125293076057}

0

1649390634996

100

JamesMedlock

1642128947140

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9DJA2qdCfztMb3SeXkkUOQdp7fIF_53hwwuPo=s96-c

104

1715658480411

0

1

1648738420122

0.0847315299101753

0.05506784423044906

XJdCBuC9OibfeL4yLInU

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05506784423044906

will-any-version-of-build-back-bett

5971.394505217641

{"NO": 1438.900085848517, "YES": 555.7054089338426}

Will any version of Build Back Better be signed into law before March 1st 2022?

1646110799000

yRcXQgkX0FSuNZWtQLKKrRfLiLk1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1524.3899999999999, "YES": 249.61000000000013}

0

4.637642921149318

True

play

NO

public

1642129203898

Samuel Hammond

The law's contents may change. It just must be called the Build Back Better Act, be passed using budget reconciliation, and be signed into law by POTUS anytime on or before March 1st, 2022.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 2133.3237892412844, "YES": 514.9979494970204}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 111.35528725660045, "YES": 166.1324772583615}

0

1646334686559

100

SamuelHammond

1642129203898

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgfX1KcKmOIsEJqY-lFIaopxdZ0LgTRPPKvy0G45g=s96-c

32

1715658289621

0

1

1642144873220

0.05506784423044906

0.13110264638205926

gyYJo1K5OW8DJ1omMDYD

{"NO": 976.0494796926412, "YES": 1115.2636557643732}

0.11664652142293902

will-there-be-us-constitutional-ref

1781.078360943047

{"NO": 25, "YES": 11}

Will there be US Constitutional reform by 2027?

1830315599000

TalJQt84BNe6lkwMfSDAvNObn4w2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 25, "YES": 11}

0

9.9620106838955

False

basic

public

1642129220241

Paul Elliott Williams

This market resolves to YES if any amendments to the US Constitution are ratified and adopted by 12/31/2027 and NO otherwise.

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"NO": 224.6664193866097, "YES": 72.2564875980005}

{"creatorFee": 0.7280187767153262, "platformFee": 0.2938645025018702, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}

0

1000

PaulElliottWilliams

1714812897334

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj7nlDQKySEPS08EdYUV_13iTJh0PyJL5Qc8vZEzg=s96-c

24

1650314712594

0

10

1714812894010

1680497565450

0.09689232206642315

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{"NO": 166.09008589347266, "YES": 437.62030605673783}

0.039125745949511445

will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2023

1005.9490885223559

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2023?

1672633199452

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

5.092090715020768

True

play

CANCEL

public

1642129356081

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2023. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585}

0

1672633199452

181.59989128081102

JiaobeiMandos

1710451951529

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

9

1650314769028

0

13

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

1672603789026

1672633195653

0.04

0.17611294946252531

QTiEJfDPHDhrY9762zJw

{"NO": 169.60624883187225, "YES": 1104.1304999148817}

0.03179170748426028

will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2024

2272.344554328486

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2024?

1735793999000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1642129412343

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2024. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks Jan 13, 10:23pm: #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

0

240

JiaobeiMandos

1710947668320

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

8

1650314582147

0

3

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

1710947664734

1700077384849

0.26385815826467174

vOsfztKzCVYlJ39jeD56

{"NO": 841.2308975840608, "YES": 1460.2494391793368}

0.17114876826780412

will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2025

2341.8685783631963

{"NO": 1, "YES": 20}

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2025?

1767329999000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1, "YES": 20}

0

9.666070101358098

False

basic

public

1642129448679

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2025. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01392099676292402}

0

{"NO": 168.64459671154603, "YES": 142.82856857085702}

{"creatorFee": 3.92796252316384, "platformFee": 1.365359890969387, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}

0

1000

JiaobeiMandos

1718171542628

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

18

1650314800723

0

6

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

1718171539467

0.2542300978701673

S4JoSrI2Ck6gy4oJmNgH

{"NO": 959.7813598258952, "YES": 981.5573476979225}

0.2500000000000002

will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2026

1963.4516354089244

{"NO": 0, "YES": 20}

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026?

1798779599000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 20}

0

9.612323248771146

False

basic

public

1642129604843

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2026. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01208876124327482}

0

{"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 156.20499351813308}

{"creatorFee": 12.259702897544319, "platformFee": 5.53608563691684, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517}

0

1000

JiaobeiMandos

1719798456018

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

0

18

1650314595899

1

4

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

1719798456018

0.17053115838027422

fulgfs9R8ITGhvF3lb33

{"NO": 108.69690700840752, "YES": 844.1136003014425}

0

will-there-be-five-or-more-american

1691.8205375453063

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022

1697169599000

PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}

0

3.9601999184024255

True

play

NO

public

1642129622241

Ezra Brodey

Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022. Market resolves based on official reports, reputable reporting, and OSINT

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 182.20867158288598, "YES": 104.4030650891055}

{"creatorFee": 0.325359186464119, "platformFee": 0.054226531077353174, "liquidityFee": 0.325359186464119}

{"NO": 182.20867158288598, "YES": 82.46211251235322}

0

1699373615969

160.3253591864641

EzraBrodey

1682860872930

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c

9

1650314703647

0

6

8

[{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525590}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1693972757664}]

["iran", "asia"]

1682860872843

1679630672922

0.03

0.7116100781361845

ntKOWECROxViqmw7pf9i

{"NO": 828.6142860671592, "YES": 1077.3057199488012}

0.6549236415845165

will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2027

2079.547604755491

{"NO": 0, "YES": 45}

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

1830315599000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 45}

0.09242968631929607

9.539931088721472

False

basic

public

1642129645778

Jiaobei Mandos

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2027. Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.034614842082896}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 200.06249023742558}

{"creatorFee": 5.796165200706747, "platformFee": 1.1904087433338306, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1000

JiaobeiMandos

1717856567774

1.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

13

1650314755767

0

8

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.12062461180479886

1717856564460

1714074919285

0.4448398309211371

CX5vN5bFulAIrrIrsdzq

{"NO": 53.525831636616715, "YES": 234.7237456496244}

0

medlock-pets-the-cat-by-june-1st-20

496.57610295178796

{"NO": 112.61990015170895, "YES": 103.8039968965031}

Medlock pets the cat by June 1st 2022

1654142399000

rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 120, "YES": 104}

0

3.0079960482992503

True

play

NO

public

1642129859839

Matt Darling

Twitter user @jdcmedlock will post a picture of a human hand petting the cat, and assert that it is his hand.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 309.18095354148176, "YES": 278.95519353473236}

{"creatorFee": 1.657526102253302, "platformFee": 0.27625435037555035, "liquidityFee": 1.657526102253302}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1654548654565

101.65752610225331

MattDarling

1654126696129

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c

9

1650313848168

0

1

1654126694834

0.15449304975043146

0.04738752542815839

dLWaqmfacgu0IUM7H8g9

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.04738752542815839

matt-darling-wins-the-neoliberal-sh

142.73949730250095

{"NO": 131, "YES": 0.2605026974990494}

Matt Darling wins the neoliberal shill contest AND James Medlock pets The Cat by 4/1/2022

1648871999000

rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 131, "YES": 0}

0

4.755500641357856

True

play

NO

public

1642130747037

Matt Darling

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 323.31644042238213, "YES": 72.11102550927978}

{"creatorFee": 0.03385282872203625, "platformFee": 0.008463207180509063, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 186.5475810617763, "YES": 72.11102550927978}

0

1649352019839

100

MattDarling

1642130747037

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c

4

1715658463048

0

1

0.04738752542815839

0.5659865702479338

GBJrXr1zRgaFCw2lY6pu

{"NO": 7.918315363617694, "YES": 699.1291678154181}

0

will-rm-still-work-at-t-by-the-end

1280

{"NO": 210, "YES": 470}

Will R.M. still work at T. by the end of 2022?

1658194592638

F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 210, "YES": 470}

0

4.923322224460631

True

play

NO

public

1642130827486

Mark Hay

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 579.7413216254298, "YES": 662.0422947214173}

{"creatorFee": 0.8708321845819302, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1658194592638

100

MarkHay

1658191010340

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c

4

1650313873549

0

1658191009085

0.014554950850215029

0.45351473922902497

FoA5JNtvTB5QTdyrJSHu

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.45351473922902497

will-tcs-companies-have-a-total-cap

10

{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}

Will Tcs companies have a total capitalization exceeding $500m by the end of 2022?

1672646399000

F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}

0

4.828237724912245

True

play

CANCEL

public

1642132172073

Mark Hay

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 155.24174696260025, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1642132456686

100

MarkHay

1642132172073

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c

1

1715657852571

0

0.12174881426395397

xNaZfcgXQyMzF42XalP7

{"NO": 152.6896743384085, "YES": 1435.9807169840233}

0

will-manifold-markets-require-proof

10880.840382724014

{"NO": 1052.5375945789112, "YES": 602.9999999999999}

Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?

1672549199000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1058, "YES": 603}

0

3.997413462635225

True

play

NO

public

1642133199271

Jiaobei Mandos

This market resolves to "yes" if, at anytime during 2022, Manifold Markets announces that it has, or will, require proof of humanity in order to create an account, or to enable any additional features. If Manifold Markets states that it will require proof of humanity (by way of a public statement), but then changes it's mind (by way of a later public statement), the market will resolve to "no". There is no requirement for the proof of humanity feature to be implemented by the end of 2022. #ManifoldMarkets Jan 13, 11:14pm: #Crypto #Blockchain Jan 14, 9:13am: #FeatureRequest Jan 14, 1:03pm: To answer Austin's question, I was thinking specifically of blockchain-based proof of humanity. So https://www.proofofhumanity.id would count (as would any other blockchain-based method), but the other forms of authentication (Twitter, email, phone number, govt ID, credit card) would not. Furthermore, I think that's the most fair way to resolve the question, given how I've tagged it

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1673.1885877320256, "YES": 802.1594073368465}

{"creatorFee": 7.095999956172422, "platformFee": 0.5065899868015762, "liquidityFee": 2.961929263133684}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1673008771168

202.96192926313367

JiaobeiMandos

1671511781546

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

69

1650314819813

0

2

67

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}]

["internet"]

1671511781238

1652368583495

0.01

0.5790824508495221

XefLCEiiaKnxXKaY5qKR

{"NO": 344.3052931637411, "YES": 40.7593847160447}

1

will-4-members-of-tcs-get-engaged-o

1441

{"NO": 320, "YES": 720}

Will 4 members of Tcs get engaged or married by the end of 2022?

1658284343390

F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 320, "YES": 720}

0

3.384761233114803

True

play

YES

public

1642133314691

Mark Hay

Not necessarily to each other

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 804.4874144447507, "YES": 943.610088966836}

{"creatorFee": 2.7012506333526276, "platformFee": 0.005733116837181742, "liquidityFee": 0.03439870102309045}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1658284343390

100.0343987010231

MarkHay

1658253386982

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c

7

1650314632390

0

1658253386848

0.9207696549170502

0.20375164171289312

OH9G7au1Doo4GpfQpGWD

{"NO": 145.83330405633757, "YES": 229.23435109726546}

1

will-there-be-at-least-one-tc-baby

870.3334497986052

{"NO": 110, "YES": 1}

Will there be at least one TC baby by the end of 2023?

1704004652869

Dd65tTaPtnhugfGe6Mk05ltAq3s2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 110, "YES": 1}

0

3.017535796326162

True

play

YES

public

1642133599605

Long Tran

will resolve yes if there exist at least one child where the 2 biological parents are both members of the Discord group TC abortions doesn't count

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 275.86228448267445, "YES": 143.60013927569847}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1704004652869

160

LongTran

1704004653912

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz6tbWeCe7nLk7DQB4L42Oiu6dAzmDsNcgv2nyl=s96-c

8

1650314563451

0

7

[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130105255}]

["new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1694213896339

1642198567493

0.14

Dd65tTaPtnhugfGe6Mk05ltAq3s2

0.6948242187500001

lFDvqeWDB4kR8QHBfAZ3

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.6948242187500001

will-the-winner-of-the-semifinals-o

56

{"NO": 0, "YES": 56}

Will the winner of the semi-finals of my "which animal would evolve intelligence if primates hadn't existed" tournament go on to win the whole thing?

1643695199000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 56}

0

4.793209607606701

True

play

YES

public

1642134558982

Lars Doucet

This ongoing tournament, it's double elimination so the current semi-finals have Octopus versus Dolphin (both undefeated). Whoever wins that is guaranteed a spot in the finals against the eventual winner of the loser's bracket. https://twitter.com/larsiusprime/status/1481837951181012993

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 213.39165869358627}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1643175546734

100

LarsDoucet

1642134558982

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

3

1715658616875

0

1643175539193

0.1766805472932778

Y7chgPuojBuzkfLKlm7K

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-sans-and-papyrus-commentary-re

210

{"NO": 160, "YES": 50}

Will Sans and Papyrus Commentary return by February 2022?

1643777999000

mkcSEuY1XBfyaI0kcA07gUDbFfR2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 160, "YES": 50}

0

4.765059725594702

True

play

NO

public

1642135709568

Jack Loughlin

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 372.0215047547655, "YES": 172.33687939614086}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 181.10770276274835, "YES": 84.8528137423857}

0

1672702538732

100

JackLoughlin

1642135709568

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx8RJ-9bMgkOgkG5gKeLZWQb6Nr_IExy5l1T5r=s96-c

4

1650314636087

0

1

5

[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779558350}]

["please-resolve"]

0.18

0.1832614619584526

TRZqdyUnYJ0bScisKUYb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1832614619584526

will-northernlion-eat-a-sandwich-co

3595.288620018614

{"NO": 2237.711379981386, "YES": 1075}

Will NorthernLion eat a sandwich containing at least 250 calories on a livestream before February 2022?

1643781599000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 2239, "YES": 1075}

0

4.6292521858479265

True

play

NO

public

1642140262990

Lars Doucet

Should a sandwich appear I will use my best judgment to estimate the number of calories. He doesn’t have to eat the whole thing on stream so long as he eats part of it on stream and we have good reason to believe he went on to finish it. #gaming #twitch

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 3174.563304813823, "YES": 1503.7583126221678}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1644251789705

100

LarsDoucet

1642140262990

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

18

1715658207293

0

1643144521828

0.1832614619584526

0.1728395061728395

C4JbXYrstvcvjXmXVhHB

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.1728395061728395

will-humanity-go-extinct-within-fiv

700

{"NO": 500, "YES": 200}

Will humanity go extinct within five minutes of this poll being created?

1642233599000

F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 500, "YES": 200}

0

4.669158514153732

True

play

NO

public

1642141693656

Mark Hay

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 818.535277187245, "YES": 374.16573867739413}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1642141987580

100

MarkHay

1642141693656

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c

2

1715657747075

0

1642142067178

0.5

LKRS1WC1g0Hdo2NAdUd6

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-e1789b2a545bc

0

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

Test

1642319999000

UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

CANCEL

public

1642143471662

Tamuz Hod

Will resolve as N/C soon N/A

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1642144604086

100

TamuzHod

1642143471662

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c

0

1715657971380

0

0.68

I6nT7FCBFU3TZtODRV77

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.68

will-democrats-lose-senate-majority

50

{"NO": 0, "YES": 50}

Will Democrats lose Senate majority after 2022 midterm elections?

1670659199000

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 0, "YES": 50}

0

4.797109350291603

True

play

CANCEL

public

1642153844314

Tasties

Jan 14, 1:53am: Removed due to redundant market

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 206.15528128088303}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}

0

1642154039941

100

Tasties

1642153844314

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Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism

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Jiaobei Mandos

The simplest version of this feature is that the market becomes a yes/no poll, and if it closes with % chance greater than 50%, it resolves to yes, otherwise it resolves to no. I guess exactly 50% would resolve to "N/A" or "MKT" A more advanced feature would make it more like a poll, allowing the creator to specify the choices (i.e., A, B, or C), and the market resolves in favour of the plurality choice. Some even more complex variations (that I wouldn't recommend implementing right away, but are neat to think about) - Specify thresholds for particular resolutions (e.g., "this resolves to yes if % chance is greater than 75%", or "this multiple-choice question resolves to whichever option has majority support, otherwise it resolves to N/A or MKT"). - Instead of a multiple-choice poll, allow ranked choice voting or whatever other exotic voting mechanism. I commit to resolving this market to whichever option has the greatest support, but it would be really convenient if I could make a platform-enforced promise to that effect! #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest

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Jiaobei Mandos

The way this feature would work is that I create a market, but instead of judging it myself, I want someone else to judge it. Once the market is created, it would work sort of like a pull-request, in that it remains in-active until and unless the proposed judge accepts it. (If the judge rejects it, it just gets deleted). There would probably need to a mechanism to prevent a malicious user from spamming people they doesn't like with spurious or obscene questions. One option is to allow judges to block users from proposing questions, but I think a better option would be to require question proposers to use M$ in order to propose a question. This M$ could be treated as a bond, such that they get it back if the judge accepts the question, but they lose it if the judge does not. I'm not sure who should get the reward for resolving the market. The simple / easy options are that it goes to the judge, or gets split between the judge and the proposer. A more complex variation is that the proposer and judge can agree on the split as part of the process for accepting the question. The rationale for this feature is that I might have markets that I want to create which I don't think I'm qualified to judge, or which I don't have enough credibility to judge well (that is, people might not trust me to resolve it properly). But I know of a user who I believe is qualified to judge it, or who has a lot more credibility. I could ask them to make the market, but I can set up the market for them, they're likelier to say yet. Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t) #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest

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1642175782980

Jiaobei Mandos

This feature would allow market creators to post a bond when creating a market. If the market it resolved poorly (more on that later), the market creator loses the bond. The rationale for this feature is that, as a market creator, I want to encourage people to participate in my markets by showing that I'll resolve it honestly. Or, to look at it from the trader's perspective, I might see a very lopsided market where I believe I can make a lot of M$, but only if the market creator resolve the market honestly. I think reputation is the first line of defense against "bad" market resolutions. If you resolve a market in a way that is obviously wrong, or self-serving, you'll lose your reputation and people will stop participating in your markets. I see the bond idea as a complement to this, because it allows a market to creator to pledge M$ in addition to their reputation. It also allows potential market creators to "bootstrap" their reputation: to start with, they have no reputation (because they're unknown), so they can post large bonds with their markets. After they've resolved many markets, they'll develop a good reputation, and that will presumably keep them honest. The obvious thorny problem, and largest barrier I see to implementing this feature, is how to judge when a market has been resolved poorly. I see two options so far: 1. Allow market participants to judge the resolution after the market has closed. Only allowing people who had participated in the market before it closed would be allowed to vote, which would somewhat mitigate the brigading problem (e.g., if a market is resolved against you, you ask your friends to vote against the resolution). There would still be a risk that any market with a bond is always resolved in favour of the majority opinion (because they can outvote the market creator) 2. The bond specifies who the appellate judge is. That is, if market participants contest a resolution after the fact, there is a pre-selected user who will be asked to decide if the market was resolved fairly or not 3. Some kind of market-based mechanism, where contesting a market creates a new market to judge whether or no the first market was resolved fairly. See here for a feature request for proposing questions for someone else to judge: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t-d5da24049b2ee Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t) #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest

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I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve YES if the highest-scoring charity is a Vitamin A supplementation program. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously. An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043. This would have resolved YES for 2021 and 2020, and NO in previous years. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #Givewell

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#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

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#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #DonaldTrump

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Lars Doucet

Whether or not he gets it. If he runs, but exclusively as an independent, that's a no. #USPolitics #Politics #Elections #BernieSanders

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Will Harvard University require a second booster (defined as a fourth dose of Moderna or Pfizer or a third dose if initially taken J&J) for students before 31 Dec 2022?

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Jordan Berman

If Harvard updates their COVID policies (e.g. https://www.harvard.edu/coronavirus/covid-update-booster-requirement-omicron-variant-workforce-policies/) to say a booster is required in addition to the current booster shot already required, this will resolve to "yes")

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Will Joe Rogan mention the recent study on Cannabis affording protection against COVID-19 within the next two weeks?

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Lars Doucet

This study: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220113/Cannabinoids-may-prevent-infection-with-SARS-CoV-2-including-variants.aspx #Cannabis #COVID19 #JoeRogan #science

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Will France still be requiring the Health Pass (Pass Sanitaire) for entry into restaurants on 1 Oct 2022?

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Jordan Berman

Mar 15, 3:52pm: As of yesterday, the Health Pass is not required for entry into restaurants (https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20220304-france-to-suspend-covid-vaccine-pass-from-14-march-as-situation-improves-masks). However I will keep this open until 1 Oct due to the phrasing of the question; it is conceivable that the government could re-instate it if cases rose beyond a certain level. The market will resolve based on the status of the Health Pass on 1 Oct as specified.

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Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: support Markdown in the description field

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1642182093801

Jiaobei Mandos

Markdown is a light-weight, text-only format for writing rich text (i.e., bold text, italics, hyperlinks, lists, etc.). Here is the original Markdown specification: https://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/ Here is a more-complete specification based on the original markdown: https://commonmark.org/ Markdown is widely used, such as by Stack Overflow (https://stackoverflow.com/editing-help), GitHub (https://docs.github.com/en/github/writing-on-github/getting-started-with-writing-and-formatting-on-github/basic-writing-and-formatting-syntax), and Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/wiki/markdown). Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t) #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest

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Will New York City public schools discontinue all COVID testing of students before 31 Dec 2022?

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1642182326544

Jordan Berman

Current testing policy: https://www.schools.nyc.gov/school-life/health-and-wellness/covid-information/covid-19-testing-for-students Market will resolve to "yes" if an official statement from the NYC Department of Education announces an end to testing AND the policy takes effect for a single day (even if later, testing is re-instituted). If the DOE announces an end to testing but rescinds that policy before taking effect, it will not count toward a positive resolution of the question.

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Will Richmond, Virginia, take concrete steps towards a Land Value Tax by 2023?

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1642182466249

Lars Doucet

Concrete steps include: - Elected officials proposing and/or debating an LVT policy measure - Actually enacting the policy measure - Commissioning a new report on the subject that they haven't already done as of the posting of this question LVT for the purpose of this question is defined as a property tax that falls entirely or mostly on land. A property tax with a 75% or greater exemption for improvements (particularly buildings) will count for this purpose. For context the Center for Property Tax reform has Richmond, Virginia in its sights and there seems to be an open dialogue: https://centerforpropertytaxreform.org/2021/09/22/is-a-land-value-tax-right-for-richmond-virginia/ #Georgism #LandValueTax #Virginia #USPolitics

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{"NO": 3.842386603056241, "YES": 227}

Will Young Georgists of America's GoFundMe campaign be fully funded in 24 hours or less?

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1642189410155

Lars Doucet

This was posted just now at 1:42 PM Central USA time on January 14, 2022: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-fund-young-georgists-of-america?utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter They are asking for $2,000. This market will resolve to "YES" if by 1:42 PM Central USA time on January 15, 2022, they have at least $2,000 pledged. #Georgism #Economics

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Will at least $50,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022?

1676664290029

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1642190131595

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time. From https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is: * 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative. * 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021. * 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force. * 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly. * 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly. * 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute. * 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation. This will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $50,000. The EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will at least $100,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022?

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Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time. From https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is: * 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative. * 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021. * 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force. * 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly. * 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly. * 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute. * 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation. This will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $100,000. The EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome", "type": "text"}]}]}

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time. From https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is: * 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative. * 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021. * 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force. * 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly. * 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly. * 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute. * 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation. This will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $200,000. The EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset of Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Will "Manifolders" become the defacto name for what users of this site call themselves by February 2022?

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1642191102005

Lars Doucet

#meta

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If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?

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Joe Biden is the current President of the USA, elected on a Biden/Harris in 2020 in a presidential race against Trump/Pence. He has stated to CNBC that he intends to run for reelection again, as an incumbent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html). One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Biden is to win the presidency, if he does run for reelection and is chosen as the Democratic the nominee. This resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether he becomes the president if he is the nominee. Jan 14, 11:02pm: #Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection Jan 15, 5:44pm: #JoeBiden

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Will the United States cut Russia off from the SWIFT system by 2023?

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1642192603480

Clay Graubard

“ “Some call it the "nuclear option." It doesn't involve weapons though. As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT. It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies. The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.” https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-swift-nuclear-option/31601868.html “The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility — something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if the United States cuts Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, regardless of whether they are later allowed back in. Jan 14, 3:36pm: This question resolves on 1/1/2023 or after the US cuts Russia from the SWIFT system, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine Feb 27, 1:37pm: The question didn't specify a full disconnection from SWIFT and they are taking actions against Russian banks, so I feel like it should resolve positively will a partial cut off. It has also been pointed out that the US does not have the power to cut Russia out, but if the US asks (with or without allies) to cut Russia out and SWIFT complies, it will count as a yes.

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Within 6 months at least 15 of the top most trade Markets will be self-promotional in nature.

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1642192748186

Travis Adams

This market will resolve to "YES" if on 7/14/2022 at least 15 of the top most traded markets (determined by selecting all markets -> filter by most traded) relate to the poster's personal brand, business, or cause in which they're invested.

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Will Twitter permanently ban a second sitting member of Congress in 2022?

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{"NO": 159, "YES": 127}

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1642193657889

Jordan Berman

Twitter banned Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's personal account on 2 Jan 2022 (https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1477670980071804930 - they refer to this, oddly, as a "permanent suspension"). This question resolves to "yes" if an account of a sitting member of Congress (House or Senate) is banned - this can be the congressperson's personal account or their official/office account.

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will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-be

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{"NO": 240.37836974547508, "YES": 555.0022035014784}

Will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be blocked or sanctioned by 2023?

1672549199000

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cpmm-1

{"NO": 30, "YES": 575}

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1642195721589

Clay Graubard

"US Senate Democrats on Thursday voted down a bill that would have put sanctions on businesses involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany... US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Germany will almost certainly block the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. Germany's new government has not given any definitive assurance of this publicly... The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is currently awaiting final approval from German and European officials before it goes into operation. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline would double the volume of gas pumped into Germany by Russian firm Gazprom. Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have voiced their concern that this increases Putin's leverage over Europe. Ukraine and Poland also oppose Nord Stream 2. The pipeline would allow Russia to bypass transit fees through those countries." https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-us-senate-democrats-defeat-sanctions-bill/a-60420538 ----------- This question resolves positively if either: a) the United States government imposes sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline before 2023; b) Germany blocks the pipeline; or c) European officials blocks the pipeline. This question will resolve on either 1/1/23 or when the resolution criteria is met, whichever is first. #RussiaUkraine Feb 23, 5:47pm: NOTE: Waiting for Biden to announce sanctions which reports says he will do soon: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-russia-nord-stream-2-sanction-b2021714.html. Not resolving on Scholz's announcement since that is only a three month delay. Feb 23, 6:58pm: RESOLVED: https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1496559653072875522

BINARY

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{"NO": 1182.280915230127, "YES": 3653.7236901972683}

0.06054479462355108

will-ukraine-be-an-official-member

15818.398445503388

{"NO": 1271.817214325694, "YES": 105}

Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1735707599000

O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 1264, "YES": 115}

0.26034889254295285

9.570519721015634

False

basic

public

1642196386718

Clay Graubard

"The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html "Russia's main demand is a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into former Soviet republics — especially Ukraine. Russia wants NATO to rescind a 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join the defense alliance. Many observers see it as a distant prospect that Ukraine could join NATO because it doesn't meet membership requirements. But Moscow doesn't see it that way. "We don't trust the other side," Russia's chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said after bilateral talks with the U.S. finished Monday. "We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances. Not safeguards. Guarantees. With all the words — 'shall, must' — everything that should be put in."... The U.S. argues that countries have a right to choose their own alliances and NATO has a long-standing "open door policy" for potential membership. "NATO has never expanded through force or coercion or subversion. It is countries' sovereign choice to choose to come to NATO and say they want to join," Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Wednesday after a meeting between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels. Russia's actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing to Ukrainians, according to opinion polls. It is unlikely, however, that Ukraine will meet the requirements anytime soon." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Ukraine becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Ukraine joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Ukraine

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will-malta-be-an-official-member-of

2403.2001404303387

{"NO": 99, "YES": 10}

Will Malta be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1735707599000

O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 99, "YES": 10}

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1642196754049

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Malta becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Malta joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Malta

BINARY

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will-cyprus-be-an-official-member-o

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Will Cyprus be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1735707599000

O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 93, "YES": 10}

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10.250637893885948

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1642196757687

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Cyprus becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Cyprus joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Cyprus

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Will Ireland be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1735707599000

O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 38, "YES": 10}

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10.32820895928241

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1642196759589

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Ireland becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Ireland joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Ireland

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Will Austria be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1735707599000

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{"NO": 145, "YES": 50}

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1642196763152

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Austria becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Austria joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Austria

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Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025?

1709922408699

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cpmm-1

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1642196767203

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Sweden becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Sweden joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Sweden

BINARY

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1642196769846

Clay Graubard

**Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post** "You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be discussed not just in Brussels but also — and especially — in the capitals of Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta. These six countries all belong to the EU but are otherwise officially non-aligned, meaning that they are not members of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that kept the peace during the Cold War and currently has to figure out how it would respond to a renewed invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The idea — inspired by Niinisto’s comments — is this: All six neutral countries, linking arms with the EU and NATO, should turn the ultimatum given by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the West on its head. He’s in effect demanding that NATO stop expanding forever, or else he attacks. Instead, the Finns, Swedes, Austrians, Irish, Maltese and Cypriots should explain that if he does attack, they will join NATO Niinisto, of course, didn’t nearly go that far. In his diplomatic way, he merely reminded Finns that their “room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” This freedom of choice is exactly what Putin wants to deny countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-torussia-invade-ukraine-and-we-all-join-nato/2022/01/07/dc848014-6f7f-11ec-b1e2-0539da8f4451_story.html ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Finland becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Finland joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Finland

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1642197018156

Clay Graubard

"Four other sections address political matters: Article 4: elections in Donbas. The day after the pullback of heavy weaponry from the contact line, a dialogue on local elections will start in accordance with Ukrainian law and the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014. No later than 30 days after the signing of the Minsk-2 agreement (i.e. by 14 March), Ukraine’s parliament will adopt a resolution defining the area in which the temporary law on special status will apply (to be based on the delineation line in the memorandum of 19 September 2014). Article 11: constitutional reform. A new Ukrainian constitution will enter into force by the end of 2015. Its ‘key element’ will be ‘decentralization’, which will take account of the ‘peculiarities’ of occupied Donbas, as agreed with the DNR/LNR representatives. Ukraine will also adopt ‘permanent legislation’ on special status before the end of 2015. This law will include: an amnesty; ‘the right of linguistic self-determination’; the involvement of the local authorities in the appointment of prosecutors and courts; agreements between Ukraine’s central authorities and the local authorities covering ‘economic, social and cultural development’; state support for the socio-economic development of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; assistance from the central authorities to support ‘transnational cooperation’ between the occupied regions and regions of the Russian Federation; rights for local parliaments to create ‘people’s militia units’; and no early termination of the powers of local parliaments and elected officials. Article 12: elections in Donbas. Election-related questions will be dealt with on the basis of the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014 and agreed with the DNR/LNR. Elections will be held in accordance with the relevant standards of the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR)." https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement ----------- This question resolves positively if Ukraine fulfills its obligations relating to elections and constitutional reform regarding Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in Articles 4, 11, and 12 of the Minsk II Agreement. This question will also resolve positively if Ukraine fulfills obligations that exceed the ones detailed by Minsk II with respect to granting political autonomy in the Donbas. This question will resolve ambiguously if Russia annexes the relevant districts in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This question will resolve on either 1/1/23 or after Ukraine fulfills its obligations outlined above. #RussiaUkraine #Ukraine Feb 23, 5:49pm: I'm open to suggestions on ambiguously resolving this question given developments. Ambiguously resolve would be N/A. A regime change would resolve yes so long as the government is recognized by the United States or 3X members of the P5.

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Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?

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Lars Doucet

Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/ Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus? #virus #medicine #science

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Nathan Young

Men's Singles Jan 16, 11:06pm: I intend to close after the match he would have played, starts.

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Duncn

Jan 14, 6:30pm: Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before February 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm #RussiaUkraine Jan 23, 8:20am: confirmed, this is a 2022 market.

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Will M'Baku (Winston Duke) take on the title of Black Panther in Black Panther 2 and future Marvel movies?

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ca ca

If, as of Black Panther 2, M'Baku is going forward considered the new Black Panther, whether or not he's considered the king of Wakanda (which was established as a sometimes separate role by T'Challa in Civil War), then this market will pay out as "Yes". If he isn't confirmed in Black Panther 2, then this will pay out as No. If he is confirmed as Black Panther before Black Panther 2, this market will pay out as Yes.

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Andrew Benn

Currently looks like he might be deported, final appeal being heard tomorrow, which has a good chance of succeeding.

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Andrew Benn

The next Australian Federal election is due by May 2022. The incumbent Liberal party (part of a coalition with the national party) is up against the Labor party.

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Head yes, tails no. #test #fun #shortterm

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Tetra

Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket. One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Harris is to win the presidency, if she is chosen as the Democratic the nominee. This resolves N/A if Kamala Harris is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether she becomes the president if she is the nominee. #Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection Jan 15, 5:44pm: #KamalaHarris

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https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

79

1650313821252

5

43

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473204}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798971842}]

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.11653156631912272

1720078235262

1702818973074

0.8730477457403448

YaMCtfzJZTc0nObxqvaI

{"NO": 2240.4504749053854, "YES": 848.0712558587434}

1

if-keir-starmer-is-the-leader-of-th

4691.677975584947

{"NO": 116, "YES": 176.54412789799048}

If Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?

1720165611863

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

{"NO": 116, "YES": 182}

0.058825190306090035

10.136748300285873

True

basic

YES

public

1642269038640

Tetra

This resolves N/A if Keir Starmer is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the seats, and NO otherwise. Jan 15, 5:50pm: Clarification: Plurality of the seats among the parties making up the coalition, not necessarily the House of Commons. Jan 16, 2:04am: #Politics #UKPolitics #2024UKGeneralElection Jan 16, 2:05am: #KeirStarmer #UKLabourParty Close date updated to 2025-01-24 12:00 am

BINARY

{"day": 0.05217102825169018, "week": 0.06932212795091963, "month": 0.06932212795091985}

0

{"NO": 263.4211912312435, "YES": 291.03293345858066}

{"creatorFee": 4.4952433868500945, "platformFee": 0.2679804329641285, "liquidityFee": 0.24472491970468457}

{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}

0

1720165611863

1000

Tetraspace

1720165611863

2.4

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

42

1650314641334

1

23

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492598}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031761292}]

["politics-default", "uk-politics"]

0.1454080866309729

1719959591349

1688124222310

0.95

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

0.5051242928176163

Zl5QvpkGBF2zkoJg8itV

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5051242928176163

should-manifold-markets-implement-t-de1088aa58674

646.5595734349633

{"NO": 408.44042656503666, "YES": 213}

Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Ban pseudonyms and require real names

1643864399000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 411, "YES": 213}

0

4.682085272420814

True

play

YES

public

1642269575116

Jiaobei Mandos

Elsewhere (https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-manifold-markets-require-proof), Austin Chen has said that Manifold Markets is considering requiring additional forms of authentication, potentially including government ID. This would defacto require divulging your real name *to Manifold Markets*, which isn't the same thing as banning pseudonyms or requiring real names, since they might keep your real name private and identify you publicly by your username. Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t) #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest Feb 3, 9:39am: I'm resolving this to "yes" based on my commitment, but I will note that "yes" was at 2% until just before the end of the market.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 507.5146023823224, "YES": 512.7428375424226}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}

0

1643899442979

100

JiaobeiMandos

1642269575116

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

8

1715658342258

0

[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1669094106543}]

["selfresolving"]

1642275003909

0.5051242928176163

0.33204256485274003

shN1BQgkbiFYx8j64q5E

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.33204256485274003

should-manifold-markets-implement-t-314f87e589004

1333.663727517484

{"NO": 725.6637275174838, "YES": 606}

Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Notifications

1643864399000

H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 725.6637275174838, "YES": 606}

0

4.649437118158884

True

play

NO

public

1642272817838

Jiaobei Mandos

I think the highest priority notification would be when one of your markets closes and needs to be resolved, but here are some things you might want to be notified of: - Comments on one of your markets - Trades on one of your markets. One notification per trade would probably be too high volume, but there are ways to batch this up, such as daily / weekly digests, or a notification if the trade volume jumps - When you've been tagged in a comment (this would obviously require implementing tagging before hand) Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t) #ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 1170.0796227798219, "YES": 824.969517645765}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}

0

1643899459451

100

JiaobeiMandos

1642272817838

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c

10

1715658789150

0

1643752695208

0.33204256485274003

0.12800381347646184

a2pufU4hXiyGq6tsVsxm

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0

will-donald-trump-by-the-president

60600.107300115196

{"NO": 28035.152272228002, "YES": 4034.740427656783}

Will Donald Trump by the President of the United States by Feb. 28, 2022?

1646121599000

c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 28013, "YES": 4148}

0

6.209948050648268

True

play

NO

public

1642286048231

Dr P

Jan 15, 2:34pm: be*

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 30040.482589640065, "YES": 11509.622152948032}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}

0

1652819107286

100

DrP

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0

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183

1650314653139

0

1

[]

1652823134118

0.12800381347646184

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{"NO": 1036.5332053214747, "YES": 79282.53141879878}

0

will-the-gop-control-the-us-senate

260863.68259078715

{"NO": 187.70681418817998, "YES": 454.62023121503546}

Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?

1675227599000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 205, "YES": 470}

0

0.2544689012803989

True

basic

NO

public

1642288375877

Tom

This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/. #Politics #USCongress #USA

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 386.9512850403288, "YES": 633.4967603253436}

{"creatorFee": 11.963083089204263, "platformFee": 0.15098170768254854, "liquidityFee": 0.5891614991380036}

{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}

0

1675228274316

5600.589161499138

toms

1675206935410

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c

0

442

1650314778935

0

1

321

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1663337913895}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1659770518403}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659695983494}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529507409}]

["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-politics", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms"]

1675206935288

1674193184562

0.01

0.8677977107184259

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{"NO": 8115.766578930193, "YES": 533.6038167595879}

1

will-the-gop-control-the-us-house-o

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{"NO": 443.9373627266608, "YES": 1881.880817093039}

Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?

1675227599000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 433, "YES": 1907}

0

0.725827431095071

True

play

YES

public

1642288576588

Tom

This will resolve positively if the House Speaker is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/. #politics #USCongress #USA

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 981.7956852279157, "YES": 2218.2585678886962}

{"creatorFee": 10.485786781490516, "platformFee": 0.4894272764878282, "liquidityFee": 2.936563658926969}

{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}

0

1675228297826

802.936563658927

toms

1674976387295

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c

97

1650314825714

0

1

86

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1663337913892}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929565}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659696101185}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1658751127081}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512893}]

["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms"]

1674976387183

1668120670729

0.99

0.05872479249525775

tjPU8mW958WiDb1x4l67

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.05872479249525775

will-manifold-implement-demurrage

425.1628335344069

{"NO": 396, "YES": 24.8371664655931}

Will Manifold implement demurrage?

1644559199000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 396, "YES": 25}

0

4.706703051442404

True

play

NO

public

1642292000102

Manifold

Demurrage, or negative interest rates on cash balances, is an experimental idea in economics associated with thinkers like Silvio Gesell that aims to encourage productive spending and discourage hoarding. In Manifold Markets' current play-money system, a small daily fee on users' uninvested cash balances (equivalent to an annualized 10-30% fee) could encourage users to bet in more markets, prevent inflation from new money generated by new users, and make it more rational to participate in longer-term markets. Resolves YES if Manifold implements negative interest rates on cash balances before the end of January and does not remove the feature before February 10, 2022. You can influence this market by posting a comment with your bet! #ManifoldMarkets #economics

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 505.31277442787854, "YES": 126.21550606762986}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}

0

1643737261750

100

Manifold

1642292000102

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

8

1715658819505

0

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576798}]

["economics-default"]

1642346319852

0.054223343499154524

CJIe8v4O8DzlLeikL8gv

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.054223343499154524

will-manifold-lower-the-starting-ba

443.6365038416908

{"NO": 395.1, "YES": 31.263496158309174}

Will Manifold lower the starting balance to M$ 500?

1643003999000

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 395.1, "YES": 29.9}

0

4.705784685828198

True

play

NO

public

1642294011527

Manifold

Manifold Markets currently gives new users M$ 1,000 for signing up. Lowering the starting balance to M$ 500 would 1. Reward our earliest users for signing up first. 2. Make our smallest M$ purchase option (M$ 500 for $5 USD) seem more reasonable. Resolves YES if Manifold Markets lowers the starting balance for new users to M$ 500 (or less) any time before the end of Jan 23, 2022. You can influence this market by leaving a comment with your bet! #ManifoldMarkets

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 511.8940224711223, "YES": 122.56851082693453}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 58.309518948453, "YES": 81.24038404635961}

0

1643071073950

100

Manifold

1642294011527

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

11

1715657757967

0

1642945581454

0.3656097423287498

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.3656097423287498

will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-the

336.6046906901351

{"NO": 138.3953093098649, "YES": 75}

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2022 Super Bowl?

1644728399000

oWC7OrgMjdZbmKjgk1NsD9hIwar1

cpmm-1

{"NO": 140, "YES": 75}

0

4.762927210850073

True

play

NO

public

1642298599072

Eric Shen

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 249.61503721596435, "YES": 189.4965780511581}

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{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}

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1643584674384

100

EricShen

1642298599072

0

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0

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399146}]

["sports-default"]

1642301642273

0.8547646009204612

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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8547646009204612

will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad

563.9298272423084

{"NO": 99, "YES": 395.0701727576916}

Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow on Groundhog's Day, 2022?

1643781599000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 99, "YES": 400}

0

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True

play

YES

public

1642299096225

Lars Doucet

Punxsutawney Phil is the name of the Groundhog from Groundhog's day. Every year they bring him out, and legend is if he "see his shadow", then winter will continue for six more weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day So, when the men in fancy hats bring him out in February, will the little critter "see his shadow" (according to his handlers), or not? #fun

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 226.3987313748431, "YES": 549.2385498052873}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}

0

1643940059739

100

LarsDoucet

1642299096225

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

10

1715658939303

0

1642307149546

0.8547646009204612

0.432975

VaDrABlXCydrFwaWa11M

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.432975

will-punxsutawney-phils-behavior-on

120

{"NO": 58, "YES": 42}

Will Punxsutawney Phil's behavior on Groundhog's Day 2022 correctly predict winter's end?

1648789199000

fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 58, "YES": 42}

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

YES

public

1642299208478

Lars Doucet

If the Groundhog see his shadow, we are supposed to see six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, spring is supposed to begin soon. After the Groundhog has made his ruling, will the observed weather patterns be judged by whoever it is that is smart enough to rule on these things to have been correct? #fun Apr 1, 12:59am: According to Pennsylvania weather records: http://www.climate.psu.edu/data/city_information/index.php?city=phl&page=dwa&type=big7 It looks like it still had a low below freezing (32 fahrenheit) on March 13, and the six week period ends March 16. I'm gonna call that "six more weeks of winter." Apr 1, 12:59am: (And yes, Phil did predict winter)

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 150.60212481900777, "YES": 131.6016717219048}

{"creatorFee": 2.32, "platformFee": 0.58, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}

0

1648792843230

100

LarsDoucet

1642299208478

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c

4

1715658249144

0

1

1643991339881

0.432975

0.9816733067729083

V288UeQ98h4j3KPbceiJ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.9816733067729083

will-lewis-hamilton-compete-in-2022

345.740208321633

{"NO": 23.25979167836698, "YES": 231}

Will Lewis Hamilton compete in 2022 F1 Championship?

1646467199000

baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": -2.842170943040401e-14, "YES": 231}

0

4.746973383733703

True

play

MKT

public

1642316158729

PlainBoomerang

The market resolves as Yes if Lewis Hamilton competes in either the first or second race of the season. For context about recent rumors of his quitting F1: https://www.autoweek.com/racing/formula-1/a38770628/lewis-hamilton-strange-silence-quitting-f1/

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 47.958315233127195, "YES": 350.99857549568486}

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 47.958315233127195, "YES": 87.74964387392123}

0

1642895806436

100

PlainBG

1642316158729

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlainBG%2FYbYTECPDi9.13?alt=media&token=e5868d91-74ae-4d99-9370-3ca5e400adab

1

1715658236320

0

0.8598456389590875

OOADnPjVx51AiDRuwCst

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.8598456389590875

will-kyrie-irving-play-at-home-in-t

547

{"NO": 114, "YES": 391}

Will Kyrie Irving play at home in this regular season?

1648882799000

baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2

cpmm-1

{"NO": 114, "YES": 391}

0

4.694464257051868

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play

YES

public

1642316535963

PlainBoomerang

The market resolves as Yes if Kyrie Irving plays in at least one home game in the 2021-2022 regular season. Kyrie is currently banned from playing at Barclays Center due to NYC's vaccine mandate.

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"NO": 226.4950330581225, "YES": 561.003565051061}

{"creatorFee": 4.5600000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1400000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0}

{"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302}

0

1648921414420

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