CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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What will the US U3 unemployment rate be in ~2 months? [see description]

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Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) become law by Dec 31 2022?

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Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?

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Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.615674761750907

True

play

0a408c32fc6e

public

1666878981363

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will-zelenskyy-meet-with-pope-franc

10553.176313859401

Will Zelenskyy meet with Pope Francis by the end of 2023?

1686365679921

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cpmm-1

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2.3488658455580427

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YES

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1666879060436

Tomek ⚡ K

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1686365679921

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229083.4601231576

Which team will win the NBA Finals 2024?

1718679685785

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cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

84b01c73bc16

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1666879214868

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https://firebasestorage.…27f-f09deac91a27

13

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715736342066}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715736347768}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecb...

["nba", "basketball", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.18443950397995498

True

1718679652462

1718679823254

False

{"84b01c73bc16": 100}

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

True

prob-desc

True

0.7341993402819662

iVW0KoqfUakz1DlkgtKd

{"NO": 1125.223678893681, "YES": 941.2420733301973}

0.7675575347054607

will-the-north-pole-move-more-than

393.6992644732468

Will the North Pole move more than 100 miles between 2020 and 2025?

1733115540000

HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2

cpmm-1

0

9.562029740398888

False

basic

public

1666879694155

wasabipesto

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When the WMM2025 is released, this question will resolve YES if the distance between the WMM2025's north dip pole result and WMM2020's result (longitude 164.04°E and latitude 86.50°N) is greater than 100 nautical miles.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8022704066806747, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

wasabipesto

1717609678810

0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…76a-2bf60f2d99e7

11

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1666879694587}]

["science-default"]

0.5

1717609675705

1666879919629

0.19674812155508

qcjiOXjRorWaQTxUrENl

{"NO": 79.18858763452954, "YES": 49310.726510075656}

0

will-fantoms-market-cap-surpass-car

62476.04714367264

Will Fantom’s market cap surpass Cardano’s at the end of 2023?

1704083585539

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.6030141110988159

True

play

NO

public

1666881794807

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of 2021, Cardano (ADA) was a promising layer-1 cryptocurrency that had just deployed the smart contracts feature in the second semester of that same year. Fantom (FTM), on the other hand, was another layer-1 cryptocurrency with a surpris...

BINARY

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0

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0

1704083585539

320

Predictor

1704083586391

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

15

0

https://firebasestorage.…e68-fbfa26799278

5

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666881795137}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129574808}]

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0.5

1704083582246

0

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

HPkEqpFSmlxnxk8CU8iF

which-player-will-be-awarded-the-20

43

Which player will be awarded the 2022 Heisman Trophy?

1670734740000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.91406299411142

True

play

4ddad84f9c97

public

1666882015215

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670987044960

340

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1670987087327

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

4

0

ANYONE

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1

https://firebasestorage.…44c-a3c31845ae64

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666882015755}]

["sports-default"]

1666915255750

1670987085481

{"4ddad84f9c97": 100}

True

0.4624874417319529

dark25SmqcjfxaaRvNAl

{"NO": 4.4611745566344325, "YES": 6896.779722410496}

0

will-elon-musks-acquisition-of-twit-8278d6219f53

10210.55253859809

Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close "at the last minute" Friday after 3pm ET?

1666919851222

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

4.617928928270693

True

play

NO

public

1666882336885

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a deal for Elon Musk to buy Twitter closes on Friday October 28 between 3pm and midnight EDT.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matt Levine writes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ...

BINARY

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0

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0

1666919851222

240

jack

1710451936053

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

12

0

https://firebasestorage.…55c-214b154ab07a

13

[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1666919841332

1666919712198

False

0.006107462362472055

0.12556879849782243

C06NI2f9ey1Kl0EHsjyG

{"NO": 281.884193038753, "YES": 1139.928326856575}

0

will-russia-destroy-any-satellite-w

1044.2676715041875

Will Russia destroy any satellite with anti-satellite weaponry in 2022?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.5141292498887147

True

play

NO

public

1666883597568

Jack

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BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672727658922

380

jack

1672692793142

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

18

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…429-0fbf5fa437c5

18

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1666883642652}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1666883597891}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "...

["russia", "ukraine", "space"]

0.5

1672539286416

1672692790975

0.03

0.5169051660238765

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{"NO": 1221.6022746967171, "YES": 57.37746863692382}

1

will-i-fall-asleep-before-4am-tonig

1378.907552348615

Will I fall asleep before 4am tonight?

1666966045696

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.2408240067163794

True

play

YES

public

1666884443178

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666966045696

260

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710462489149

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…bac-3510018e0637

13

[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Sleep Management", "slug": "sleep-management", "groupId": "gfjnZX83RU...

["fun", "commitment-devices", "olivia", "sleep-management", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1666966039113

1666969589872

0.3229194235828824

0.6852901484247558

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{"NO": 500.3156077162099, "YES": 270.23629284190844}

0.71

what-of-manifold-users-think-its-so

492.3608925595574

What % of Manifold users think it's socially acceptable for a market creator to correct a binary market before resolving it?

1668142740000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.266325210727512

True

play

MKT

public

1666885198877

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the below poll in 2 weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://strawpoll.com/embed/polls/PbZqoPJelnN", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "para...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668180482669

340

Jenny

1668180458931

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

16

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…2a5-1e5f9fec8ca8

15

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1666885199169}]

["polls"]

0.5

1668141751364

1668180442379

0.71

0.5000000000000001

tH2DmYQ6hzwTuLvQGWaP

{"NO": 89.28571428571428, "YES": 112}

0.4435770049680625

kjkj

12

kjkj

1666888207484

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

0

2.779006984121677

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666888192244

FRC

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "jj", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666888207484

100

FRCassarino

1666888196876

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

1

0

https://firebasestorage.…73f-b2adc5ba6095

2

0.5

1666888196700

0.5

0.10946214863886744

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{"NO": 957.8589674088316, "YES": 1249.3142743409942}

0.08612482140670677

benchmark-gap-1-once-we-have-a-lang

714.5820491663403

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

2209017600000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0.017316604491107956

10.121500045107494

False

play

public

1666890711914

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First of a series of questions trying to measure the \"benchmark gap\": the gap between what we can measure with our benchmarks and actual human-level performance.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 6.938893903907228e-17, "week": 6.938893903907228e-17, "month": 6.938893903907228e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.076903641548143, "platformFee": 0.076903641548143, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

vluzko

1714861771784

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…008-7f7763ef5935

9

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666890712283}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908161}]

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"]

0.11207204231040517

0.2

1714861768542

1666897832532

False

0.5000000000000001

uv8rloTaQocomSiCRH87

{"NO": 135, "YES": 74.07407407407406}

0.75

this-market-will-resolve-to-75

35

This market will resolve to 75%

1666891012880

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-1

0

2.8174521277235955

True

play

MKT

public

1666890919494

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Testing if markets can be reopened after closing. Resolves to PROB @ 75%.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-28 10:16 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1666891012880

100

a

1710206797265

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

1

0

https://firebasestorage.…09e-b9ade0429f26

1

[{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS"}]

["testing"]

0.5

1666890992647

1666891031682

0.75

0.24690252698997364

XpviFpUL8pZiNnGGAm7Q

{"NO": 222.7548467758398, "YES": 2374.980881228011}

0

will-president-biden-declare-a-new

2243.9797111189273

Will President Biden declare a new National Emergency by the end of 2022?

1672527540000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

1.1687801940334652

True

play

NO

public

1666892742745

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, before December 31, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market will ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672751257333

440

itsTomekK

1672742452926

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

19

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…964-bebdb1740784

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[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666892743250}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1672514367780

1672742451720

0.03

rgKk5pahet4Td6xtlsYr

soccer-who-will-be-the-next-manager

267.4589225030171

Soccer: Who will be the next manager of England's national team?

1767221940000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666895156340

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8334989182365097, "platformFee": 0.7723787435942596, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

399.99999999999994

itsTomekK

1720057099382

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

8

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "210d70f24ee3", "prob": 0.16779793214186506, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.263397746608254, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.94227510266439, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rgKk5pahet4Td6xtlsYr", "createdTime": 1666895156844, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

https://firebasestorage.…5bb-4d2c4c02031a

2

[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1666895156704}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1668708261805}, {"name"...

["soccer", "tomeks-specials", "football-rumors"]

1720057096160

True

R2PzDjT0kWWQYxabnEVM

what-will-be-googles-most-searched-e0b967a8515e

777.7467504698768

What will be Google's most searched term in 2022?

1672661626253

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.67288975375354

True

play

27e22ca7ddfd

public

1666895508642

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve by Global TOP1 in \"Searches\" by Google Trends Year in Search Report for 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Results of 2021: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://trends.googl...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672661626253

500

itsTomekK

1672565892663

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

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https://firebasestorage.…503-c8f64e2321ba

9

[{"name": "Google Trends", "slug": "google-trends", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "G71hVdQqs1RbmxkGBUC8", "createdTime": 1666895509009}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 166864666...

["google-trends", "tomeks-specials"]

1672565892498

1671198329989

{"27e22ca7ddfd": 100}

True

0.8532008016325401

SOU9zrkF0SafyTpv6OPh

{"NO": 1758.5968136457636, "YES": 292.1166603783709}

1

will-alexander-lukashenko-remain-pr

1878.6480049561246

Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus through 2022?

1672527540000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

1.8924664950232801

True

play

YES

public

1666895759020

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money original: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://insightprediction.com/m/430/will-alexander-lukashenko-remain-president-of-belarus-through-2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672658508528

420

itsTomekK

1672514358315

0

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19

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…117-e94b7ceeb26c

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[{"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1666895801105}, {"name": "Insight Prediction", "slug": "insight-prediction", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "LczPUXOVtueL35nfRuxx", "createdTime": 16668...

["insight-prediction", "central-europe", "europe"]

0.5

1672514358137

1666895789678

0.97

k2vIbgdqs9pHiR09kP4z

who-will-be-the-next-president-of-b

94

Who will be the next President of Belarus, after Lukashenko?

1830293940000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666895830531

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

399.99999999999994

itsTomekK

1686800735703

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "aa121b69d7f3", "prob": 0.2712673611111111, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.077668723604642, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 43.19104925909151, "textFts": "", "contractId": "k2vIbgdqs9pHiR09kP4z", "createdTime": 1666895831038, "probChanges": {"day": -0.72873263888...

https://firebasestorage.…e58-8ba0d48b206d

3

[{"name": "Belarus", "slug": "belarus", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "3V9kyLnqeRy2NP3Fef5Z", "createdTime": 1668708185881}, {"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1666895830896}, {"name": "T...

["central-europe", "belarus", "tomeks-specials"]

1686800735365

True

0.6110013750910678

EumqI7bNA9sdmSsTe3lX

{"NO": 49093.657444664146, "YES": 23.509020275752846}

1

will-anyone-who-cut-ties-with-kanye

49325.742838802296

Will anyone who cut ties with Kanye West work with him again by 2024?

1704083901243

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.04373082342135943

1.4622971089438197

True

play

YES

public

1666897772295

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will anyone (person, business, agency, entity) who cut ties with Kanye West (Ye) recently as a result of his comments / behavior be back to working with him again by 2024? In the event he apologizes / takes corrective actions to resolve his issues ...

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1704083901243

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1.1

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

26

0

https://firebasestorage.…e05-cd4ed81ef66b

12

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1666897772669}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128720878...

["entertainment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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1704083897847

1703006215368

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0.7618215616667523

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{"NO": 3838.35613704809, "YES": 1488.9864280802224}

1

will-i-stop-having-covid-by-noon-pd

7678.805408928474

Will I stop having COVID by noon PDT on Monday, Oct 31?

1667110314823

ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2

cpmm-1

0

0.30666777771366416

True

basic

YES

public

1666900025243

Devansh

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "tested negative!!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update Saturday (9am PDT) - First negative test. Will take another test tonight - if it's also negative, this market resolves YES.", "type": "...

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1667110314823

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Devansh

1710206840584

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ggo6IHd6m9oMmhDGTjCMJnDVxYwPBL7iFBkGYTa7A=s96-c

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0

https://firebasestorage.…937-3e3c7d74b438

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[{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]

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1667104443025

1667013077705

0.8918366853803756

0.47374748967034785

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0

will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-e6998bfa011a

1646.4386722168629

Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.00 on October 28, 2022?

1666983600000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.7001886988808677

True

play

NO

public

1666900969303

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": ...

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1666987572234

220

Predictor

1666976258771

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

9

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…6b9-a4433d6f9d37

9

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1666900969776}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1666976256891

0.29999999999999954

ppGCY9uMovZRB39qmosu

what-nfl-team-will-baker-mayfield-p

3483.7971069305668

What NFL team will Baker Mayfield play on next?

1670621996501

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.629088587464381

True

play

55b5a903fb59

public

1666903872014

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What NFL team will Baker Mayfield play on next after the Carolina Panthers?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670621996501

320

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1670553501703

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

0

ANYONE

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https://firebasestorage.…997-02cd195448d9

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[{"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1666903878809}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666903872451}, {"name": "Football", "slug"...

["sports-default", "nfl", "football"]

1670551777844

1670553498672

{"55b5a903fb59": 100}

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0.06735625559490116

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{"NO": 1548.8664898266798, "YES": 59445.2771716491}

0

will-google-develop-a-cryptocurrenc

69579.65871502276

Will Google develop a cryptocurrency by the end of 2023?

1704083774313

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.004082773064809977

-0.053392854467440465

True

basic

NO

public

1666904148228

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google develops and announces the launch of a cryptoasset / cryptocurrency by December 31, 2023, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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0

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1704083774313

2050

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1704083775464

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

3

128

0

https://firebasestorage.…853-feb772d5f674

93

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1666904159657}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 166690414...

["crypto-speculation", "technology-default", "futuur", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.16883988312827078

0.5

1704083770088

1677946172703

0

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

0.7135337539863914

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{"NO": 2138.759118791622, "YES": 154.52098218698754}

1

will-ukraine-retake-kyselivka-befor

2923.212643169877

Will Ukraine retake Kyselivka before November 16th 2022?

1668511891929

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cpmm-1

0

1.8061436034720089

True

play

YES

public

1666906804312

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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0

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0

1668511891929

360

NathanpmYoung

1668482667616

0

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16

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a2-16f1bda2ab55

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[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1666906804697}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1668379875333}]

["ukraine", "free-money"]

0.5

1668482666678

1668380090118

0.9718118413687432

0.4549493279559406

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{"NO": 252.2170587942138, "YES": 24161.022948945334}

0

will-twitter-unban-destiny-in-2022

616495.7128899316

Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?

1672527600000

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cpmm-1

0

0.7416323580808957

True

basic

NO

public

1666907762670

Jack

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672578880591

2010

jack

1673030152720

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

11

1754

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…e9f-716b556ba061

1293

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671142334510}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671055393454}]

["twitter", "destinygg"]

0.5

1672526126718

1673030126574

0.01

0.1697356769492195

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{"NO": 640.4836318646982, "YES": 7578.428642035509}

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will-twitter-unban-alex-jones-in-20

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Will Twitter unban Alex Jones in 2022?

1672527600000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

0.8705295409582776

True

basic

NO

public

1666907900592

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Alex Jones is unbanned by Twitter. before the end of 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10860/who-will-...

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1672727081133

1040

jack

1672605158091

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https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

51

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…8b2-e5622f579abf

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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1666907900985}]

["twitter"]

0.5

1671882776985

1672605150602

0.02

0.5637439502685795

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{"NO": 168.8575709935647, "YES": 113.4181160483827}

0.657988990393367

if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-be

212.28304627449512

If a nuclear weapon is detonated before the midterms, will Republicans win the Senate?

1667994313511

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.274151372959268

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666909139244

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1667994313511

140

Gigacasting

1667920419263

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

3

0

https://firebasestorage.…8f2-1ceb2e2887d8

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666909139869}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1667920419029

0.657988990393367

0.5

5ayWFdWRxajRlclm94NZ

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-be-dfb30650fba1

0

If a nuclear weapon is detonated before the midterms, will Democrats hold the Senate?

1666909183559

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666909172223

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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0

1666909183559

100

Gigacasting

1666909172223

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

0

https://firebasestorage.…a83-f1706e08b66b

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666909172861}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181865085}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

False

0.5

0.33575881671101204

ZnRhscckQfbLR7bMONAM

{"NO": 67.1328758523803, "YES": 1378.95629200369}

0

if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-not-detonate

1276.4189681340833

If a nuclear weapon is *NOT* detonated before the midterms, will Republicans win the Senate?

1668306793457

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.821976851957188

True

play

NO

public

1666909220386

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668306793457

240

Gigacasting

1668233092550

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…4af-762cbe17190c

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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666909220929}]

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1668233084916

0.024017532893815266

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{"NO": 926.324748794043, "YES": 20261.169927131737}

0

will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-decbb69f00b3

51553.7243673771

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Thanksgiving?

1669308122832

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

0.523455109386628

True

basic

NO

public

1666909428350

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1669308122832

1890

Gigacasting

1669304402537

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

94

0

https://firebasestorage.…224-60cf140f667a

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[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666909428676}]

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1669304402337

1668912393183

0.01117289870295458

0.5011643631682405

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{"NO": 188.138317627201, "YES": 172.10994513478676}

0.5234082248222922

if-manifold-had-personalized-recomm

509.1223838287661

If Manifold had personalized recommendations, would this be a top feature?

1675231140000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

1.7443664288495901

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666911249194

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the level of loans, liquidity, and limit orders. (And above the cosmetic changes.)", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1675656151691

180

Gigacasting

1675222497712

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

5

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…afc-aec0420ad49c

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666911249605}]

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1675222497612

1666911347216

0.52

0.34649622090391097

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0

will-frank-ocean-release-a-new-song

425.0183624049557

Will Frank Ocean release a new song before the end of 2022

1672559940000

82nKPQA1aEP6cSCKrKDyBMBNS1j1

cpmm-1

0

2.499102922597894

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NO

public

1666912178074

E S

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to 'YES' if Frank Ocean releases a new song, available on Spotify or Apple Music, (Apple Music Radio only does not count) before the end of 2022", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1672611475951

180

ems

1672558059251

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https://firebasestorage.…731-9702cd1b6e05

6

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https://firebasestorage.…76c-c1bae07702d6

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[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "82nKPQA1aEP6cSCKrKDyBMBNS1j1", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1666912178507}]

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