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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.22980566461373805 | n51601ZVXZo6h4VGv1Jp | {"NO": 273.0979284346789, "YES": 2071.8472852389295} | 0 | will-just-stop-oil-activists-actual | 2129.6506653286187 | Will Just Stop Oil activists actually damage a famous work of art before the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.418916556618866 | True | play | NO | public | 1666922223674 | Nico | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far all paintings targeted by activists have suffered at worst minor, superficial damage. This question resolves to YES if at least one famous work of art (not its frame, case or stand) in a museum, gallery or private collection is significantly... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672684606716 | 460 | NicoDelon | 1672578831532 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1666922414799}, {"name": "Activism", "slug": "activism", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "qg84JFEbZwH0UoYj9NCk", "createdTime": 1666922403483}, {"name": "Arts", "slug"... | ["arts", "activism", "climate", "culture-default"] | 0.5 | 1672236687698 | 1672578828219 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2724987730185781 | 8o5e06tzmpKoBfFa4Np1 | {"NO": 574.6663380653372, "YES": 57951.78521636044} | 0 | will-twitter-accept-dogecoin-doge-a | 75987.69580396055 | Will Twitter accept Dogecoin (DOGE) as a method of payment before the end of 2023? | 1704083145825 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.2864778796664149 | True | basic | NO | public | 1666922379091 | Predictor ๐ฅ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704083145825 | 2085 | Predictor | 1710451913231 | 0.2 | 4 | 125 | 0 | 90 | [{"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"}, {"name": "๐ช Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso"}, {"name": "โ๏ธ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "๐ New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-... | ["technology-default", "crypto-speculation", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.1319931208633694 | 0.5 | 1704083140336 | 1690893699860 | 0 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3020106423388433 | 9JhMcnWHIgBpgEtmvWaA | {"NO": 817.6827235525176, "YES": 24290.296340641526} | 0 | will-bolsonaro-be-imprisoned-until | 33016.465333653134 | Will Bolsonaro be imprisoned before the end of 2023? | 1704081540000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0.007908676365698919 | 0.38791672378909503 | True | basic | NO | public | 1666922491724 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "FsOlnM67oIPHqcRn2DDL,9f5UgI6dWT9J2eqGMw4o,qn5DVpJq3W1doQAMmxlF,qKciiMqLr2peJld7veWH"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704087105497 | 2423.75 | FranklinBaldo | 1704087106104 | 1.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1666922492135}, {"name": "Bolsonaro", "slug": "bolsonaro", "groupId": "cHUVL7xfcNhVnL0ZLHFB", "createdTime": 1688154243850}, {"name": "๐ New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "... | ["brazil-3292d24d179f", "bolsonaro", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.12909989760745974 | 0.5 | 1704073625576 | 1701362544259 | False | 0.01 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.815768710399484 | G6bs8BIM7u5uDgKcuUR3 | {"NO": 1281.5302823666752, "YES": 159.68245191168361} | 1 | will-there-be-a-bot-with-a-public-w | 4587.461603287176 | Will there be a bot with a public web frontend by the end of 2022 | 1667235577606 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7315724576433267 | True | play | YES | public | 1666933790250 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a website where any manifold user (possibly with some restrictions, such as minimum account age) can ask the bot to perform some action for them. Some possible things the bot could do:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667235577606 | 300 | Jenny | 1667235240636 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666933816906}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1666933790695}, ... | ["trading-bots", "manifold-6748e065087e", "bounty-markets"] | 0.5 | 1667190620848 | 1667235236792 | 0.9003526678348693 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31262167029262955 | h5KwcRJq2MYI8rKJxAJJ | {"NO": 174.3290926486875, "YES": 288.6362032727247} | 0.12 | what-portion-of-my-family-will-i-co | 218.07420954974123 | What portion of my family will I consider to have reacted poorly to my coming out at EoY | 1672549140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8830327243392946 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666933954388 | Olivia๐ณ๏ธโโง๏ธ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is going out 3 hops from me, so includes 1st cousins, parents, aunts, uncles, nuncles, grandparents, and my 0 remaining great grandparents. I will give a precise count later, but I would estimate n~30", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672554757882 | 220 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462512487 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "๐ค Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธโ๐ LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy"}, {"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"... | ["fun", "lgbtqia", "trans-questions", "olivia", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1672543047046 | 1672554793541 | 0.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42741001353354074 | gCL5U1R6pYxLbHVKgqB7 | {"NO": 242.5248563484659, "YES": 273.82949879546584} | 0.15 | what-portion-of-my-family-will-i-co-891ab548fc83 | 202.80664929059068 | What portion of my family will I consider to have reacted positively to my coming out at EoY | 1672549140000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3514088360522676 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666934753671 | Olivia๐ณ๏ธโโง๏ธ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is going out 3 hops from me, so includes 1st cousins, parents, aunts, uncles, nuncles, grandparents, and my 0 remaining great grandparents. I will give a precise count later, but I would estimate n~30", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672554872923 | 260 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1710462512614 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "๐ค Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธโ๐ LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy"}, {"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"... | ["fun", "lgbtqia", "trans-questions", "olivia", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1672543046571 | 1672554906939 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4105465759441013 | rPBFR7w5LiSeGAYXbr3n | {"NO": 121.98637300629731, "YES": 481.45081358288} | 0.09375 | what-will-be-the-largest-number-of | 344.5891965812614 | What will be the largest number of simultaneous users with the BOT tag by the end of 2022? | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7784809580179868 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666935817612 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently there are 16: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "3S5gAHLCa3QgEAtC2D329hPPLY12", "label": "pos"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33", "label": "v"}}, {"t... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672605223667 | 220 | Jenny | 1672405724516 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1671059251178}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666935818193}, ... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots", "manibadges"] | 0.5 | 1672405724367 | 0.09375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36453765786899095 | 7T2soVgvfaAIob7Dpkqp | {"NO": 72.22521700542765, "YES": 469.75689014843607} | 0 | will-i-make-any-bets-this-saturday | 362 | Will I make any bets this Saturday between 0:00 and 8:00 EDT? | 1667044800000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.687586431065979 | True | play | NO | public | 1666937657583 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not own YES shares.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-29 8:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667059826091 | 160 | Jenny | 1710462487977 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "๐ค Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Sleep Management", "slug": "sleep-management", "groupId": "gfjnZX83RUVNwW2tfG8G"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2... | ["fun", "commitment-devices", "sleep-management", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1667044590921 | 1667060468115 | 0.21465109793986187 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3962060607699344 | 7mL8SHr2QFOG9Gd14oG8 | {"NO": 150.0699164004908, "YES": 221.28727984794253} | 1 | will-i-make-any-bets-this-sunday-be | 198.43407345607864 | Will I make any bets this Sunday between 0:00 and 8:00 EDT? | 1667131200000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9063740023854268 | True | play | YES | public | 1666937738435 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not own YES shares.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667138107011 | 180 | Jenny | 1710462486101 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "๐ค Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz"}, {"name": "Sleep Management", "slug": "sleep-management", "groupId": "gfjnZX83RUVNwW2tfG8G"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2... | ["fun", "commitment-devices", "sleep-management", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1667042911824 | 1667138091984 | 0.3079631613437957 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3001803995993497 | fOdF2jtNuGMTpbOQCIof | {"NO": 102.5258899297307, "YES": 2414.359700835497} | 0 | will-donald-trump-tweet-again-befor | 2623.2176370399875 | Will Donald Trump tweet again before midterms? | 1667973540000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2449205566998827 | True | play | NO | public | 1666938891141 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667979316488 | 320 | Gigacasting | 1667969945365 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666938891711}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892762}] | ["politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1667969944969 | False | 0.017889093647364362 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40486908765711527 | 2aAAZkbdonXMx1HXi9Ra | {"NO": 451.09670200647895, "YES": 17220.256075608075} | 0 | will-donald-trump-tweet-again-befor-a471269b7f10 | 39798.627560488676 | Will Donald Trump tweet again before Thanksgiving? | 1669308143632 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5042808594634804 | True | basic | NO | public | 1666939034130 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669308143632 | 2030 | Gigacasting | 1669304347900 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 0 | 171 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1668911378352}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181893096}] | ["twitter", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1669304347704 | 1669140023877 | False | 0.01750897602070816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7797761175046298 | kP0HFvASNV6g63EQ1Rwx | {"NO": 992.6583256946749, "YES": 101.22906433821782} | 1 | will-i-nunosempere-reach-1k-twitter | 943.6972764993126 | Will I (@NunoSempere) reach 1k Twitter followers by the end of 2022? | 1668690938506 | mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.242905480103157 | True | play | YES | public | 1666968641000 | Nuรฑo Sempere | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves according to my unappealable best judgment. I expect the number to more or less monotonically increase, but in case of ambiguity, I'll resolve this market according to the number of followers I have the first time I look at it ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668690938506 | 200 | NuรฑoSempere | 1668642222862 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1666968641423}] | ["twitter"] | 0.5 | 1668642222751 | 1666974457857 | 0.9720057552845875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20266503006800363 | 79xuWpd4ic3Hyi5CJCiP | {"NO": 435.5503989125843, "YES": 3188.311349245705} | 0 | will-sjow-win-the-tournament | 3293.4379573605815 | Will Sjow win the tournament? | 1667078997562 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.058565458447685 | True | play | NO | public | 1666971223796 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Resolves yes if Sjow wins the tournament.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1582042859062296576"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667078997562 | 780 | SirSalty | 1667078507483 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Storybook Brawl Streamer Showdown", "slug": "storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "px42YjKPtAq6O6i5rEAp", "createdTime": 1666971224144}] | ["storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown"] | 0.5 | 1667078507371 | 0.033557658121757414 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24349589834908214 | kvG808vWcwH2YVb2fLR7 | {"NO": 295.74957393087055, "YES": 6119.0405086672035} | 0 | will-karlim-win-the-tournament | 5985.847448098747 | Will Karlim win the tournament? | 1667078926980 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2176228823356192 | True | play | NO | public | 1666971285337 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Resolves yes if Karlim wins the tournament.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/karlim00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/karlim00", "class": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667078926980 | 740 | SirSalty | 1667078508120 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Storybook Brawl Streamer Showdown", "slug": "storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "px42YjKPtAq6O6i5rEAp", "createdTime": 1666971285658}] | ["storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown"] | 0.5 | 1667078507943 | 0.015318524310596588 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dv9NyZNLqgC640Pm6dH8 | bounty-market-what-modification-to | 29.050904660934393 | [Bounty market] What modification (to my diet, my life, etc) will I make once I have figured out the Potato Mystery? | 1667777959903 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.015812932042274 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666972517672 | ^,^ รpi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sister market of ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/JoyVoid/bounty-market-what-will-i-try-next", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697925412811 | 260 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1667028836978 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ec9bd0702955", "prob": 0.981284948209036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.52402805526571, "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.620297774480282, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Dv9NyZNLqgC640Pm6dH8", "createdTime": 1666972518252, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 4 | 4 | [{"name": "Bounty markets", "slug": "bounty-markets", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "yogJV7GSfqfUB8rOsXhF", "createdTime": 1666972631159}, {"name": "Life intervention", "slug": "life-intervention", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "hlgJn9tiQAnKxx07j5bc", "createdTime": 1666972... | ["potato-mystery", "life-intervention", "bounty-markets"] | 1666984730212 | 1667028834792 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27064543552649156 | DVNHYWufA3zgGRPEnpDx | {"NO": 412.3116995568033, "YES": 248.26444717777605} | 0.1 | will-the-manifold-twitch-bot-run-in | 559.4858655914459 | Will the Manifold Twitch bot run into problems during the sbb streamer showdown? | 1667080440304 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2664191606283117 | True | play | MKT | public | 1666973604214 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving at my discretion of what counts as a problem.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eg. Resolves yes if we have to temporarily take the bot down to push a quick fix. Or if there is a signi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667080440304 | 480 | SirSalty | 1667080461222 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Storybook Brawl Streamer Showdown", "slug": "storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "px42YjKPtAq6O6i5rEAp", "createdTime": 1666973604627}] | ["storybook-brawl-streamer-showdown"] | 0.5 | 1667080406413 | 1667080457429 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24203572440453167 | fzWoQpQYJuyA2OA88kLf | {"NO": 284.0297684911541, "YES": 1115.2093395741308} | 0 | will-elon-musk-fire-70-of-twitters | 1296.0320476589598 | Will Elon Musk fire >70% of Twitterโs workforce by the end of the year? | 1672549140000 | oEpXdWv0VgO5CIyBLQWaXx0Zsxr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3595623918678421 | True | play | NO | public | 1666976007578 | amp! | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=70% of employees fired, which should be ~5250 (unless the number of employees on Wikipedia turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672563477617 | 420 | ampdot | 1672563476923 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.5 | 1672547826975 | 1672563473961 | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49311134184047484 | uO44yMOO7ONsBUtOahvA | {"NO": 10.889715357562007, "YES": 944.5530728764563} | 0 | will-resolve-as-no | 1959 | will resolve as no | 1666976333880 | Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.904804360926582 | True | play | NO | public | 1666976203811 | Trong โ ๏ธ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666976333880 | 140 | 8 | 1666976264884 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 1666976263486 | 0.011091207210761955 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Rss8DsAhhaVvVhGiolRQ | {"NO": 99.28571428571428, "YES": 100.71942446043165} | 1 | top-4 | 22 | top 4? | 1667068069272 | lQLsSZ8mvQX9SJZLOepKZmVEGkB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.772614415805471 | True | play | YES | public | 1666982113484 | Christian Nickerson (Happiness | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667068069272 | 100 | ChristianNickersonHappine | 1666983225811 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XQK4Ug60ga7vYQGXqjAdYZLZzVfy3t_jRKu66Nw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 1666982140415 | 1666983223611 | 0.4964158166542485 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4176497985786264 | Iz6EO1JjZQP8yZ7bSmth | {"NO": 172.9149718861634, "YES": 368.8869898779968} | 0.2515958586323461 | will-i-start-using-twitter-before-2 | 257.2824562984183 | Will I start using Twitter before 2024 (EOY 2023)? | 1704063540000 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5045889196417601 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1666983782051 | ^,^ รpi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, I do not use Facebook, Twitter, or any other public social media platform, Manifold is the closest thing to the only one I ever use.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given Elon Mus... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705416853961 | 240 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1705416854178 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | [{"name": "joy_void_joy's personal questions", "slug": "joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "e84L6gdDxJ80UeUNLWwn", "createdTime": 1666983782566}, {"name": "๐ New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "create... | ["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703878242732 | 1705416850938 | 0.25 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4692545860461678 | MGX0qaH6fLc6DI2l8fDI | {"NO": 247.79604383613062, "YES": 389.4880317115351} | 0 | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1832a6ee4207 | 1724.051242208425 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.75 on October 31, 2022? | 1667242800000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1530213338974213 | True | play | NO | public | 1666984433274 | Predictor ๐ฅ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667246516380 | 340 | Predictor | 1667242381168 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1666984433612}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1667242380861 | 1667232126795 | 0.3600000000000009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8798622327510589 | WPYO6EvMLjX10YIJMScJ | {"NO": 2049.5661444186726, "YES": 797.9839405435348} | 0.9495220016691795 | will-google-chrome-support-thirdpar | 2015.3997130512707 | Will Google Chrome support third-party cookies by default on January 1, 2025? | 1735804740000 | fEOv9u1pr7TgIeOGxS9R6O26Ry12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.239883432227867 | False | basic | public | 1666985225058 | Don Marti | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"yes\" if a fresh install of the current supported version of Google Chrome for Microsoft Windows has third-party cookies enabled by default.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 7.771561172376096e-16, "week": 7.771561172376096e-16, "month": 7.771561172376096e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.659991405883122, "platformFee": 6.659991405883122, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DonMarti7bd2 | 1714070297175 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GirRJ8T_tdWUinP_WuNjwJBGG2NYFnBcSSTR0E10Q=s96-c | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "fEOv9u1pr7TgIeOGxS9R6O26Ry12", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1666985225568}, {"name": "www", "slug": "www", "userId": "fEOv9u1pr7TgIeOGxS9R6O26Ry12", "groupId": "nv3JpiN9yOF4UfAD3mQ3", "createdTime": 1678893978580}] | ["technology-default", "www"] | 0.5 | 1714070293987 | 1713908725091 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5906925934098338 | CUt4R4Diu3vSYUdbC2nb | {"NO": 2469.504319218479, "YES": 28.890363616461833} | 1 | will-dr-jordan-b-peterson-jordanbpe | 2535.2325049028145 | Will Dr Jordan B. Peterson (@jordanbpeterson) tweet in 2022? | 1668799225596 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.720822504558294 | True | play | YES | public | 1666985283008 | Tomek โก K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if @jordanbpeterson ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/", "class": "no-underline !te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668799225596 | 202 | itsTomekK | 1668799220856 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1666985283456}] | ["twitter"] | 0.5 | 1668799179853 | 1668799218630 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49407356467923336 | eQkie49LbKsuEmpd9LxF | {"NO": 330.17021044006026, "YES": 392.6765240161903} | 0 | will-dj-be-under-180-pounds-on-jan | 161 | Will DJ be under 180 pounds on Jan 30 | 1675090740000 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9839106789129389 | True | play | NO | public | 1667021143461 | Pepe | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJ's diet is to only eat one 1000 calorie meal each day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJ is 200 lbs and 5'11.5\". He is 29 years old and Indian American. In the past he dieted from 182 to 1... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675213463747 | 360 | Pepe | 1675240383816 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1667021143973}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1675089033659 | 1675240381605 | 0.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.34763180381842873 | iew0lloCfGQai0JV34X5 | {"NO": 523.6963631599931, "YES": 26049.342381869283} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-41dfff460cab | 153455.0976866474 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023? | 1703998740000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0401089408474725 | 0.5085648689943776 | True | basic | NO | public | 1667043442249 | Tomek โก K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise ", "typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704113483416 | 2175 | itsTomekK | 1705649204650 | 1.6 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 4 | 480 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1667043442605}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "create... | ["nuclear-risk", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.2195358226000626 | 0.5 | 1703971025940 | 1705649203099 | 0.01 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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