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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.4858928968936406 | aQayoQXSeD3VtXj3ygY3 | {"NO": 60.6375309819877, "YES": 279.1482079939989} | 0 | will-bionicd0lph1n-have-a-higher-pr-547097705d53 | 191.31707558510368 | Will @BionicD0LPH1N have a higher profit total than @GeorgeVii at 12pm ET? | 1667232000000 | w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.600608849736441 | True | play | NO | public | 1667145832989 | Velocity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@BionicD0LPH1N: 14673\n@GeorgeVii: 14558", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667232135920 | 160 | v | 1710187835429 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1667231783470 | 1667232157243 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5206740037738927 | aUCJsOj42mfV2vpKCib7 | {"NO": 262.22328175913447, "YES": 66.99248733777841} | 1 | will-acc-have-the-highest-daily-pro-6f72536ee3c9 | 1034.8503795766176 | Will @acc have the highest daily profit at 4pm ET? | 1667160000000 | w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.525999978871274 | True | play | YES | public | 1667145897256 | Velocity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@v = NOT BOT", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667160100665 | 240 | v | 1710187838086 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1667159732093 | 1667160112877 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3623804223300355 | 3rI6fkdL6iMaAnoxFtku | {"NO": 61.59984435105255, "YES": 583.2896880568618} | 0 | will-jack-have-the-highest-daily-pr-62fad439e84b | 494.670107222276 | Will @jack have the highest daily profit at 4pm ET? | 1667160000000 | w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.909632983550955 | True | play | NO | public | 1667145957395 | Velocity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@v = NOT BOT", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667160121261 | 240 | v | 1710187839838 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1667159731486 | 1667160132155 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3793545381030775 | KPDH1aKxM3nA2JjYfNMF | {"NO": 36.69263547718215, "YES": 589.7203758644692} | 0 | will-wawiv-have-the-highest-daily-p | 469.104076383591 | Will @WAWIV have the highest daily profit at 4pm ET? | 1667160000000 | w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7192117559332036 | True | play | NO | public | 1667146026559 | Velocity | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@v = NOT BOT", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667160147622 | 160 | v | 1710187838141 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1667159730896 | 1667160164502 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31190664712962657 | tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv | {"NO": 925.315020014375, "YES": 1148.417278965205} | 0.2675230124763647 | what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b | 450.122083814045 | What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? | 4102473600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.598606637664872 | False | basic | public | 1667148280946 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:deco... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.955192944276857, "platformFee": 0.030374143604275993, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1716789032262 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1667148281484}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1716677055866 | 1716789030985 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10218725522056356 | p9z5d5bdk92vdH4mWmKT | {"NO": 250.40925582412166, "YES": 1859.2823364956298} | 0 | will-both-russia-and-north-korea-de | 3040.2049768749603 | Will both Russia and North Korea detonate nuclear weapons in 2022? | 1672559940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.345012249993894 | True | play | NO | public | 1667148670250 | Mike Blume | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672562144960 | 360 | MichaelBlume | 1671521884612 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1667148670616}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661104}, {"name"... | ["nuclear-risk", "north-korea", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1671521884427 | 1667176896860 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8879216747221719 | CIFG4EF3BxZpcjgJk2HQ | {"NO": 1256.3440870896204, "YES": 203.1260132409393} | 1 | will-biden-still-be-president-at-th-ae655379413d | 1657.8147830228113 | Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to poll] | 1672560000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6773173731411513 | True | play | YES | public | 1667149479810 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is another experiment in self-resolving markets. Some previous attempts:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This", "type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673034430890 | 300 | IsaacKing | 1673130583068 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1667152466016}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667149480411}, ... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "experimental", "polls"] | 0.5 | 1672538347624 | 1673130579109 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12148692479688347 | ErPLu7QUQN5JbmBdfama | {"NO": 276.7558113507739, "YES": 4526.592469898599} | 0 | will-the-elfstedentocht-take-place | 5973.557652636386 | Will the Elfstedentocht take place in 2022-2023? | 1685180799832 | yTi0RidEHCXLoVDiJ82XYRrL3fh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3661681724164576 | True | play | NO | public | 1667152759795 | MCLD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if the Elfstendetocht (the Dutch long-distance skating tour) is held at any time in winter/spring 2022-2023, i.e. before June 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685180852239 | 520 | mcld | 1700683817741 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1SW9ju8MSr2JSJVpcKImnUwMYUfnmGZ69I8Hgm=s96-c | 1 | 24 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "yTi0RidEHCXLoVDiJ82XYRrL3fh2", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1667152760238}, {"name": "Nederland", "slug": "nederland", "userId": "tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3", "groupId": "bhrat2biKksU578PIonQ", "createdTime": 1667164076079}] | ["climate", "nederland"] | 0.5 | 1685175296950 | 1700683816898 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3076926836545409 | fXjh6yUSAFKsiiHQURHm | {"NO": 356.4110069834356, "YES": 3745.9822680750112} | 0 | will-bryan-caplan-join-manifold-and-1e207861dd79 | 5343.519912710838 | Will Bryan Caplan join Manifold and create at least one market before the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8418079237588922 | True | play | NO | public | 1667156100093 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bryan Caplan is Professor of Economics at George Mason University and author of the blog ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Bet on It", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://betonit.substack.com/about", "class": "no-under... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672627990572 | 770 | SG | 1672551408606 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1667156100431}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1672551408513 | 1667156384663 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46633296725735485 | tMN5K8ZlAftyC0KFr4Yt | {"NO": 14.276422611400221, "YES": 1338.9674653481522} | 0 | will-my-twitter-account-nickrestifo | 1309.0325346518475 | Will my twitter account (@nickrestifo) have 5,000 or more followers by December 31st, 2023? | 1704049200000 | qyfe0CItsAMyHdIdFBJsmtxLi382 | cpmm-1 | 1.539095918623324e-16 | 4.595321878302084 | True | play | NO | public | 1667156283723 | Nick Restifo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve this market as YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If my twitter account (@nickrestifo) has 5,000 or more followers at 2:00 PM EST... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704137781509 | 120 | NickRestifo | 1704137781768 | 0.1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "qyfe0CItsAMyHdIdFBJsmtxLi382", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1667156284251}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131166300}] | ["fun", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09439149997484886 | 0.5 | 1695075948294 | 0.01 | qyfe0CItsAMyHdIdFBJsmtxLi382 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5446122677039607 | 9FapX3LmttUQVe2Mqbmh | {"NO": 884.5135179552873, "YES": 1344.462056468293} | 0.8 | will-twitter-blue-verify-users-and | 2836.3196273709636 | Will Twitter Blue verify users and cost more by November 7th? | 1667620740000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.354214388491148 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1667179249151 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per The Verge (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/30/23431931/twitter-paid-verification-elon-musk-blue-monthly-subscription", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2022/10... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667899710833 | 1120 | Gabrielle | 1710451912397 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 39 | 0 | 1 | 37 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1667607792435 | 1667922604471 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5909443060982852 | EvbeCysuR1gQcsioM4KK | {"NO": 623.7487832117638, "YES": 171.63842403248407} | 1 | will-i-repay-all-or-most-of-yevs-m1 | 3477.190143141541 | Will I repay all or most of @Yev's M$1,000 loan before the end of next week? | 1668315540000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3739220077339842 | True | play | YES | public | 1667184026937 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if I repay all or most of ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "label": "Yev"}}, {"text": "'s M$1000 loan before the end of the day, November 12th.", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668454833673 | 320 | cos | 1668486429896 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1667184027430}, {"name": "Loans", "slug": "loans", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "tGI8aX6j8Nen9qgpgkJV", "createdTime": 1668318441622}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "loans"] | 0.5 | 1668314455561 | 1668486428717 | 0.8400000000000005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.526463315813544 | IxYkyko3NDNonVKMCj7I | {"NO": 249.1269711442189, "YES": 162.50747939223857} | 0.6302270383035213 | on-the-first-day-that-at-least-4-pe-73d177b2e567 | 156.06044207413504 | On the first day that at least 4 people engage in a guitar-accompanied singalong at the AI Impacts retreat, will the average evening rating be above 8? | 1667372340000 | duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6537294296301146 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667244108327 | Katja Grace | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating is by google form. Possible ratings are 0-10, rating is not mandatory, average is over raters, which may include outside visitors. Form says 'Please only respond to this form if you are honestly reporting how good the evening was', and allow... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667814547908 | 200 | KatjaGrace | 1667337197003 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKatjaGrace%2FRm2q0pf_ZB.45?alt=media&token=f63a7162-3765-4734-9383-6cf95bc290e8 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667244108676}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667337196849 | 0.6302270383035213 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6252678063004325 | 50dkrNk3tBLDpWUAp8mj | {"NO": 268.2324380633233, "YES": 124.0662100935975} | 1 | will-average-evening-rating-for-nov-fa71684ac2f6 | 105 | Will average evening rating for Nov 1 at AI Impacts retreat be above 6? | 1667421067523 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0842226983309633 | True | play | YES | public | 1667244349714 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667421067523 | 180 | meefburger | 1667407893056 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667244350142}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667407891354 | 0.7829611932578686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4527737091033398 | ZqjasXGeHDlDNcUS5Kko | {"NO": 183.31017296677058, "YES": 216.43887265477926} | 0 | will-average-evening-rating-for-nov-6d602fad9ba2 | 320.4506695834539 | Will average evening rating for Nov 2 at AI Impacts retreat be above 8? | 1667792323710 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.536163756223912 | True | play | NO | public | 1667244388048 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667792323710 | 200 | meefburger | 1667589067747 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667244494133}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667589067564 | 0.41202547044047094 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.515677237380061 | FncJgUC4rjkkBOXqE6tH | {"NO": 21.363163258179725, "YES": 802.1813702585737} | 0 | will-average-evening-rating-at-the-28e87a7a117b | 1852.6506627815288 | Will average evening rating at the AI Impacts retreat be above 8 for the first evening on which at least four people play The Schelling Game, if there is such an evening? | 1667345490222 | UudsQmNTDVgTG8j5ZH4VmRU3nSq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6111846400745153 | True | play | NO | public | 1667244501858 | Harlan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667345490222 | 160 | Harlan | 1667345271347 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1IPPKptExrtr-CdWbnKlyflrICQGnHZH6mrJT1Ew=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "UudsQmNTDVgTG8j5ZH4VmRU3nSq1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667244502581}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667345271221 | 0.02757355912563439 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5975399710161898 | f4H1csA6t67nySTGnuSN | {"NO": 409.90108597363934, "YES": 45.12039429441471} | 1 | will-average-evening-rating-for-nov-c6f7120a6dae | 390.3370092644555 | Will average evening rating for Nov 2 at AI Impacts retreat be above 6? | 1667792362287 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.268054129636798 | True | play | YES | public | 1667244758106 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667792362287 | 120 | meefburger | 1667458310052 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667244758500}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667458309857 | 0.9309777797490475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48315988371409746 | GLsGlphoLQdgwpec7vA5 | {"NO": 107.4743541170525, "YES": 183.33333333333323} | 0.3540143845969294 | on-the-first-evening-that-at-least | 80 | On the first evening that at least 4 people play hot seat at the AI Impacts retreat, will the average evening rating be above 8? | 1667814606085 | duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.203630305284361 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667245182784 | Katja Grace | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating is by google form. Possible ratings are 0-10, rating is not mandatory, average is over raters, which may include outside visitors. Form says 'Please only respond to this form if you are honestly reporting how good the evening was', and allow... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667814606085 | 140 | KatjaGrace | 1667421244005 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKatjaGrace%2FRm2q0pf_ZB.45?alt=media&token=f63a7162-3765-4734-9383-6cf95bc290e8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667245183135}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667421241445 | 0.35401438459692947 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5513079203475437 | eDWQcZ4CZEOkX1rcoACY | {"NO": 18.74872428712638, "YES": 1358.69251162223} | 0 | on-the-first-day-that-at-least-4-pe-33c7ba6807c1 | 2066.7093935002995 | On the first day that at least 4 people drink at least one drink at the AI Impacts retreat, will the average evening rating be above 8? | 1667346561133 | duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5064676052091097 | True | play | NO | public | 1667245223939 | Katja Grace | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating is by google form. Possible ratings are 0-10, rating is not mandatory, average is over raters, which may include outside visitors. Form says 'Please only respond to this form if you are honestly reporting how good the evening was', and allow... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667346561133 | 200 | KatjaGrace | 1667346550574 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKatjaGrace%2FRm2q0pf_ZB.45?alt=media&token=f63a7162-3765-4734-9383-6cf95bc290e8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667245224222}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667346550081 | 0.5770027017541199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4994761002003824 | mxmkKpbGFHHGK4x30Q78 | {"NO": 135.53978328247078, "YES": 235.85535247402518} | 0.36446211294602554 | on-the-first-day-that-at-least-4-pe-f99f04f040dc | 130 | On the first day that at least 4 people wear some kind of halloween costume at the AI Impacts retreat, will the average evening rating be above 8? | 1667814588200 | duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8125723230656148 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667245250413 | Katja Grace | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating is by google form. Possible ratings are 0-10, rating is not mandatory, average is over raters, which may include outside visitors. Form says 'Please only respond to this form if you are honestly reporting how good the evening was', and allow... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667814588200 | 180 | KatjaGrace | 1667421250270 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKatjaGrace%2FRm2q0pf_ZB.45?alt=media&token=f63a7162-3765-4734-9383-6cf95bc290e8 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667245250688}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667421250150 | 0.36446211294602565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4056541559487951 | px9lxkzkDiHKChIHeVjp | {"NO": 77.91517035810836, "YES": 1257.3992380434247} | 0 | will-the-ai-impacts-retreat-have-at | 1412.6849242681928 | Will the AI Impacts Retreat have at least 1 child come trick-or-treating? | 1667319885723 | kpOKYIF9fdQdvlwMabGWGGSomym1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.16419877627525 | True | play | NO | public | 1667245777653 | Jeffrey Heninger | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667319885723 | 260 | JeffreyHeninger | 1667289235132 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3vZ5NIKBqotSS4S2ACkDhFCxZ9XnyDcDFUjbz6=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "kpOKYIF9fdQdvlwMabGWGGSomym1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667245778086}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667289234935 | 0.04057661649081903 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27377360233782067 | r4F4oEJHD3GvlWVQfRZ5 | {"NO": 142.6498471247101, "YES": 315.94762136012804} | 0.14544986057299808 | conditional-on-largescale-conflict | 293.10451599617426 | Conditional on large-scale conflict between robots and humans before 2100, will at least one robot use a sword as a weapon? | 4102473540000 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1667245896661 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Large-scale\" means at least 1000 robots or humans. \"Sword\" means Wikipedia's definition: A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "sword", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " is an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "edged, bladed weapon"... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | meefburger | 1706909804782 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667245897058}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104669278}] | ["ai-impacts", "futurism"] | 0.5 | 1706909804600 | 1690138267633 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29267999719386395 | Ieyi3D8dsqDUiG9bCvlU | {"NO": 130.1811597922422, "YES": 851.9903384684577} | 0 | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-878cb5ab2721 | 1713.969051226377 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.75 on November 1, 2022? | 1667329200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.104214920970463 | True | play | NO | public | 1667246635321 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667333195690 | 300 | Predictor | 1667325601796 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1667246635700}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1667325601654 | 1667323216205 | 0.05946552890513821 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6224048001920791 | WRMuZPfoRIIqhR9Pkh3a | {"NO": 7.14495811022573, "YES": 2219.240554184984} | 0 | will-pale-have-at-least-25-arcs | 3101.59256827563 | Will Pale have at least 25 arcs? | 1697050161564 | 2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.288036867942944 | True | play | NO | public | 1667248082724 | Forrest | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://palewebserial.wordpress.com/about/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://palewebserial.wordpress.com/about/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-ind... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697050161564 | 260 | Forrest | 1695740242640 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1667248090507}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1667248083415}, {"name": "Wildbow... | ["culture-default", "fiction", "wildbow-fiction"] | 0.5 | 1694025149574 | 1695740242115 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.632894214270902 | aOQlZKJxY9tnp5D12Mgc | {"NO": 272.823777910523, "YES": 126.91375325231836} | 1 | will-i-get-to-bed-by-1155pm-at-leas-a9af5b06138a | 687.8845050666132 | Will I get to bed by 11:55pm at least 3 times this week? | 1667833873145 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.076235104729159 | True | play | YES | public | 1667248667933 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "www.Emile.chat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.Emile.chat", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667833873145 | 180 | Charlie | 1667792357003 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Sleep Management", "slug": "sleep-management", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "gfjnZX83RUVNwW2tfG8G", "createdTime": 1667252433557}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 166725243... | ["sleep-management", "personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1667792355712 | 1667698422290 | 0.7875083995080296 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5947439819933953 | G3ZklYMl2V9V37F7ExMC | {"NO": 1897.4472841172783, "YES": 22.234650048049293} | 1 | will-at-least-4-people-at-the-ai-im | 1799.5441029082835 | Will at least 4 people at the AI Impacts retreat bet on at least one market during any of the evenings? | 1667268363514 | kpOKYIF9fdQdvlwMabGWGGSomym1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.291824088043525 | True | play | YES | public | 1667248901461 | Jeffrey Heninger | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For any of the evenings (Oct 31 - Dec 2), will at least 4 people who are at the AI Impacts retreat bet on any of the markets in the AI Impacts group on Manifold Markets, beteen 7 pm and 12 am?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667268363514 | 200 | JeffreyHeninger | 1667268330613 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3vZ5NIKBqotSS4S2ACkDhFCxZ9XnyDcDFUjbz6=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "kpOKYIF9fdQdvlwMabGWGGSomym1", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1667248901833}] | ["ai-impacts"] | 0.5 | 1667268330507 | 1667249011711 | 0.992008395934452 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6878904626593312 | ngnuQ92JkXk8fewyEqo4 | {"NO": 298.5128136358691, "YES": 227.44095370708945} | 0.7431102863828358 | if-i-try-out-marvel-snap-in-nov-wil | 180 | If I try out Marvel Snap in Nov, will I regret it one month later? | 1669870740000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.587612161693245 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1667248915252 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My friends Alex and Michael enjoy the game quite a lot, playing apparently 12 hours a day since release. Zvi warns that the game might be well executed but also quite addicting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thezvi.substack.com/p/marvel-sna... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670087860496 | 260 | Austin | 1670087877205 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1670450014847}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fO... | ["personal-decision-in-hindsight", "entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1669855021035 | 1670087877715 | 0.7431102863828358 |
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