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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.21838644132304896 | e4tcDVzjmeHLNXjR0E6m | {"NO": 35.100912522320925, "YES": 4871.061150537518} | 0 | -will-botafogo-beat-junior-during-r | 5208.931128257788 | ⚽ Will Botafogo beat Junior during regular time on Wed, Apr 3, 2024? Copa Libertadores 🌎 | 1712192400000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.033841071898585 | True | play | NO | public | 1711905193818 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Botafogo vs Junior", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0020093467377843917} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712530245042 | 220 | FranklinBaldo | 1712192400000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "Copa Libertadores", "slug": "copa-libertadores", "groupId": "IaEcAZ0Gdkloyw1gtXyu", "createdTime": 1711905193978}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711905193965}] | ["copa-libertadores", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712191615719 | 0 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2257843777828867 | 5gwdUx2H4v77rp6yLwfU | {"NO": 36.21849461380474, "YES": 5410} | 0 | -will-huachipato-beat-estudiantes-l | 5210 | ⚽ Will Huachipato beat Estudiantes L.P. during regular time on Wed, Apr 3, 2024? Copa Libertadores 🌎 | 1712192400000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.707270876040619 | True | play | NO | public | 1711905195795 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Huachipato vs Estudiantes L.P.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 C... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0019485789499820553} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712530746937 | 200 | FranklinBaldo | 1712192400000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711905195963}, {"name": "Copa Libertadores", "slug": "copa-libertadores", "groupId": "IaEcAZ0Gdkloyw1gtXyu", "createdTime": 1711905195974}] | ["soccer", "copa-libertadores"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712191629497 | 0 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999999 | xp8tvekMhpfK72SacGEO | {"NO": 600, "YES": 16.66666666666663} | 1 | test-market-a21542261aa3 | 500 | Test market | 1711907600925 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.1016903168083285 | True | play | YES | public | 1711907539377 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711907600925 | 100 | FranklinBaldo | 1711907600925 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS", "createdTime": 1711907539572}] | ["testing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711907563992 | 0.97 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LxHX9UJNc62krtIDHqvr | all-upcoming-ufc-fights-megamarket | 45743.252452095265 | All Upcoming UFC Fights Megamarket | 253397942940000 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711908081061 | Tripping | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will attempt to keep track of all upcoming UFC bouts. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fighter tagged NO wins, the answer will resolve NO. If the fighter tagged YES wins, th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 125.59423584405297, "platformFee": 28.25413796017616, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2830 | Tripping | 1719280272140 | 0 | 27 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7c9d8db13416", "prob": 0, "text": "(April 06th) Brendan Allen [No] vs Chris Curtis [Yes]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.846883468834676, "userId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2050, "textFts": "'06th':2 'allen':4 'april':1 'brendan':3 'chris':7 'curti':8 'vs':6 'yes':9", "contractId"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669033757222 | 0 | [{"name": "MMA", "slug": "mma", "groupId": "VAI9srd7zaNEvJ1iYLO1", "createdTime": 1711908081440}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1711908081437}, {"name": "UFC", "slug": "ufc", "groupId": "oQEmR7LpGHSDsM2Ua87u", "createdTime": 1711908081448}, {"name": "🏟️ Spor... | ["mma", "fighting", "ufc", "sports-default", "combat-sports"] | 0.25 | 1719280272140 | False | old | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17977059685910188 | dg01g8sWgQCb7b9zy8Vx | {"NO": 435.379970784644, "YES": 3696.6793401498244} | 0 | will-the-singaporean-government-wor-1ff9bbbb52e0 | 3309.2126697146405 | Will the Singaporean government work with Manifold to make prediction markets before May? | 1714535940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.546279748648292 | True | play | NO | public | 1711908249250 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ShIE7pUBiFvPL9i00tfA", "label": "/bohaska/will-the-singaporean-government-wor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "CBLzjgr87nKzWZYay... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.087328067235686, "platformFee": 4.087328067235686, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714631460664 | 680 | Bayesian | 1714535940000 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711908249393}, {"name": "Singapore", "slug": "singapore", "groupId": "yf4FBjNZ2VoHpyGzJEB5", "createdTime": 1711908249407}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aG... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "singapore", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714439206312 | 0.03 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1545163836400868 | t5p3DU6anzW8TmJhoS1m | {"NO": 891.7019408959438, "YES": 1363.5426306099848} | 0.10675559268455455 | will-y-lecun-turn-ai-doomer-by-end | 3450.4439806010364 | Will Y. Lecun turn AI doomer by end 2025 ? | 1767221940000 | rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.91346774162339 | False | basic | public | 1711909623044 | Guillaume | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AI doomer : ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "someone who", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "holds pessimistic beliefs about the potential negative impacts of artificial... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 0.029113142175536913} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.15325255533491, "platformFee": 0.1616672650825298, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Guillaume | 1717712395705 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700490235027 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1711909623192}, {"name": "Yann LeCun", "slug": "yann-lecun", "groupId": "a652aff2-d63d-456f-982b-1632fdd81035", "createdTime": 1711909623195}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsV... | ["ai-safety", "yann-lecun", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717712392587 | 1712304596911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25kZq5ACmZZcDkfqRRFW | what-type-of-team-will-win-the-2025 | 123.99568907275655 | What type of team will win the 2025 college football national championship? | 1737532740000 | OispOHcuZ6Mtln1rU1R6Dl0JblV2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711910206445 | alex | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve as soon as the 2025 national championship game concludes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If any team is unclear, just ask and I will try to sort it into a bucket.", "type": "text"}]}... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3330361187107767, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 325 | gocougs | 1717791947503 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKgcEdee0YHQfqznypu7NY6p_lmXBvNqOhfJXKnQ92apw=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "bc3e2f02d358", "prob": 0.155572852438738, "text": "A dog (i.e. Bulldog, Husky)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.631281550654748, "userId": "OispOHcuZ6Mtln1rU1R6Dl0JblV2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.26720960775836, "textFts": "'bulldog':4 'dog':2 'huski':5 'i.e':3", "contractId": "25kZq5ACmZZcDkfqRRFW", "create... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701847526633 | 0 | [{"name": "College Football", "slug": "college-football", "groupId": "ky1VPTuxrLXMnHyajZFp", "createdTime": 1711910206860}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711910206865}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", ... | ["college-football", "sports-default", "football"] | 0.25 | 1717791944330 | 1717783394915 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3nyDYoNuKKvJTTDwdsuI | how-many-submissions-will-my-the-be | 50 | How many submissions will my 'The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject' LessWrong post get by the end of April? | 1714546740000 | khRerRV5LlgAMNhqwPETpoCUIL83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711910369708 | Parker Conley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Post link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SXJGSPeQWbACveJhs/the-best-tacit-knowledge-videos-on-every-subject", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SXJGSPeQWbAC... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714603050802 | 100 | parconley | 1714546740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcxQ0E9oU56pT9MQ8U-4OZjB5V6Nf4b281zsXvKnXCx=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "08dbfd9e042f", "prob": 0.17339473057256788, "text": "0-10", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.633392827333701, "userId": "khRerRV5LlgAMNhqwPETpoCUIL83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 36.38981827099336, "textFts": "'-10':2 '0':1", "contractId": "3nyDYoNuKKvJTTDwdsuI", "resolverId": "khRerRV5LlgAMNhqwPETpoCUIL83", "created... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1689786723487 | True | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1711910370085}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1711910370093}] | ["lesswrong", "effective-altruism"] | 0.25 | 1711910461174 | 1711910406962 | khRerRV5LlgAMNhqwPETpoCUIL83 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8411429498305673 | uKdnVgHIjJQKOEuXET8k | {"NO": 5404.17037229661, "YES": 72.01786615912292} | 1 | will-bitcoin-drop-below-66666-befor | 5256 | Will Bitcoin drop below $66666 before the end of April 2024? | 1712077617036 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.549397034820013 | True | play | YES | public | 1711910497866 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3542958370239149} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712077617036 | 220 | AmmonLam | 1712077617036 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1711910498107}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1711910498109}] | ["bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712057303561 | 1712046428455 | 1 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | 294333.42401427246 | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | 1720292340000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.823383799483942 | False | basic | public | 1711910524490 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each tweet you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a good take and NO if you think it's a bad take.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"tex... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1234.5678288804422, "platformFee": 985.0982695355099, "liquidityFee": 0} | 38.142110363836466 | 64520 | Joshua | 1720241919447 | 0 | 335 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d477ef2ddc47", "prob": 0.038242393553719965, "text": "Roko: \"...The net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount.\" https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.05796892809947, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOt... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1711910524771}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711910524769}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC",... | ["twitter", "technology-default", "culture-default", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | True | 1720241916286 | 1720194959623 | False | new | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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pAXZgguab7ZfdrOQye9r | would-you-prefer-to-live-under-perm | 0 | Would you prefer to live under permanent Daylight Savings/Summer Time, or permanent Standard time? | 1714546740000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711921795999 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Permanent” means there would be no switch between Daylight Savings/Summer time and Standard time at any point during the year - it’s either one or the other year-round. Which would YOU prefer? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714546741219 | themightysalmon | 1712012433254 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1711921796191}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711921796192}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9a... | ["science-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "timekeeping"] | 0.25 | 1712012432617 | ["35581a096424"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48116779946347915 | cGGgnUS7dzPHchDA6TcG | {"NO": 123.22615060491788, "YES": 160.00000000000006} | 0.416655791967116 | will-the-sp-500-index-drop-40-from | 20 | Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029? | 1714535940000 | XcJIbHKqksZUHdxW5sMRgO9nOWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711923035648 | P V | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the S&P 500 index experience a 40% decline between now and March, 2029.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.885780586188048e-16, "week": 3.885780586188048e-16, "month": 3.885780586188048e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | PVd75c | 1712747613041 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK1fp-KuViynnY6Qum9E7yr-KnSkxVo6fc8dJ0rzkVW=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711922170605 | 0 | [{"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1711923035939}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "createdTime": 1711923035937}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2... | ["sp-500-439f18dbc885", "investing", "sp-500-changes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711977938372 | 1712747612394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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mu0tcUZVbnwc6ezmXcbv | which-of-these-people-will-destiny | 37427.13318159806 | Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711925765131 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding any talk that occurred before the creation of this market an answer resolves YES if there is video or audio evidence of Destiny and the person talking available before the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 253.66981649550948, "platformFee": 115.92857508870117, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 9320 | jacksonpolack | 1720057471874 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 56 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f072fa093d4c", "prob": 0.1400000000000111, "text": "Abigail Shapiro", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.08619594887833, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 252.3866322573722, "textFts": "'abigail':1 'shapiro':2", "contractId": "mu0tcUZVbnwc6ezmXcbv", "createdTime": 1711925765131, "pro... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1711925766051}, {"name": "Aella", "slug": "aella", "groupId": "PtIApT55aHEw0uQB4lNo", "createdTime": 1711925766052}, {"name": "xQc", "slug": "xqc", "groupId": "YMfPf8QA71hjsIQYoTvV", "createdTime": 1711925766053}] | ["destinygg", "aella", "xqc"] | 0.25 | 1720057468496 | 1719788181550 | False | liquidity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26060828549217563 | FyaxzCiSEVRSS2yEiwin | {"NO": 1378.0006136727498, "YES": 807.1759797188205} | 0.3756713555326288 | will-france-send-troops-to-ukraine | 12467.992421896599 | Will France send troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | ylcusgGEHahoLLpvGKcNNZeV58H3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.303440880781908 | False | basic | public | 1711927485653 | Florent ROUFFIGNAC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Troops may be sent in any capacity whether to fight or repair equipment to fulfill the contract.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.07962832012177695, "month": -0.3564163693701062} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 218.410391145707, "platformFee": 17.934805550660986, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1230 | FlorentROUFFIGNAC | 1720098270793 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIaDroOagMv4VK60PAdpMwe_ahaC09midIvpV4uxzkLni8=s96-c | 118 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695869497545 | 0 | [{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1711927485821}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1711927485830}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 17119274... | ["france", "geopolitics", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "military"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720098267722 | 1717172800867 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FKE0ilaAjMU3rvdnLnVj | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-52 | 250 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 52) | 1712077225085 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711928325883 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712077856784 | 125 | komplexkonjugat | 1712078387500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f2022aa1f51f", "prob": 0.9, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 275, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.272727272727252, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':5", "contractI... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1711928326036}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1711928326044}] | ["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"] | 0.25 | 1711945411705 | 1712078386989 | 0.9 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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FFH36qZZ7Zlroaq79JGu | will-destiny-be-live-anywhere-db62f9f615ce | 28042.834512673286 | Will Destiny be live anywhere? | 1712536053381 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711931864745 | A Whole Turkey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will destiny ( not a clip ) be visible or audible in any live stream from any channel. Twitter space, discord, a youtube broadcast, as long as he is live and recorded for review, it will be resolved YES. If he is not live in any format will resolve... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712536053381 | 555 | AWholeTurkey | 1712536053381 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXoYMkpGKhUTA_Na4PwM_SDlp0_3ib2nfGQhaw7x5B70s=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ff39716883dc", "prob": 1, "text": "Mon 4/1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1336.0000000000002, "userId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.6323304332379157, "textFts": "'4/1':2 'mon':1", "contractId": "FFH36qZZ7Zlroaq79JGu", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699290420656 | 0 | [{"name": "Destiny", "slug": "destiny", "groupId": "d5076dce-8f87-4eaa-9735-77def68f9e0e", "createdTime": 1711931864975}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1711931864990}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "create... | ["destiny", "destinygg", "dalibanhq"] | 0.25 | 1712536043634 | 1 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xbEfkkZ1Iyz1MVfIQUVU | which-days-will-destiny-play-any-ga-f2ffd1e702d4 | 11711 | Which Days will Destiny Play Any Games? | 1712559540000 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711931940475 | A Whole Turkey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any game counts for any length of time, on camera, on any stream. Not always watching live so will resolve YES when I see it OR when someone posts a screenshot or timestamp in the comments. Will resolve NO if no games are played by Midnight EST or ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716016455445 | 275 | AWholeTurkey | 1712559540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXoYMkpGKhUTA_Na4PwM_SDlp0_3ib2nfGQhaw7x5B70s=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b83e8a6f2d47", "prob": 0.28, "text": "Monday 4/1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.95515853400187, "userId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 87.99999999999997, "textFts": "'4/1':2 'monday':1", "contractId": "xbEfkkZ1Iyz1MVfIQUVU", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyy... | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699290420656 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1711931940710}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1711931940712}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 1711931... | ["gaming", "destinygg", "dalibanhq"] | 0.25 | 1712536464834 | 0.5 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jazCoEQ8Hx2kcaUDv0Mu | which-days-will-destiny-stream-this-3ee140586bc6 | 27274.805352440155 | Which days will Destiny stream this week? | 1712536372845 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711932018578 | A Whole Turkey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only will resolve YES if destiny’s channel on Youtube or Kick go live on that day. Will resolve NO if it does not go live by Midnight EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will always resolve t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712536372845 | 755 | AWholeTurkey | 1712536372845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXoYMkpGKhUTA_Na4PwM_SDlp0_3ib2nfGQhaw7x5B70s=s96-c | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1bba289127bb", "prob": 1, "text": "Mon 4/1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1747.1915701873434, "userId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7964882176395349, "textFts": "'4/1':2 'mon':1", "contractId": "jazCoEQ8Hx2kcaUDv0Mu", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699290420656 | 0 | [{"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 1711932018794}, {"name": "Destiny", "slug": "destiny", "groupId": "d5076dce-8f87-4eaa-9735-77def68f9e0e", "createdTime": 1711932018796}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "create... | ["dalibanhq", "destiny", "destinygg"] | 0.25 | 1712536365386 | 1 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.41394333452528626 | iTXN5eTvuDIbBWwK9trq | {"NO": 31.941839514416234, "YES": 3217.8346083108886} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-either-z-b5c99a2cf6f8 | 3067.0157175573354 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will either Zhou, Bottas, Gasly, Sargeant or Magnussen score points at the Japanese GP? | 1712473279086 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3598835872320665 | True | play | NO | public | 1711933032576 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any of the drivers listed score points with a top-10 finish at the Japanese Grand Prix.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a reserve driver in place of the listed driv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006962467045112125} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473279086 | 280 | Arch1e | 1712473279086 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933032703}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933032708}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["auto-racing", "formula-1", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712473002815 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3367821403762028 | lA0ysiDu9hHrC91NQWA8 | {"NO": 74.41030311559507, "YES": 2594.8508964183493} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-perez-le-241f75977654 | 2763.8423162138047 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Perez, Leclerc, Norris and Hamilton all finish in the top 6 positions at the Japanese GP? | 1712473269804 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4774076112191152 | True | play | NO | public | 1711933051780 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the listed drivers all finish the race in 6th or higher.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if any driver is unable to race on the day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014352746749207336} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473269804 | 260 | Arch1e | 1712473269804 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933051988}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933051986}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["auto-racing", "motorsports", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712472183333 | 1712472197695 | 0.01 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.615540147333597 | EZ9WqXOlMeeml094ECYS | {"NO": 3814.068103565932, "YES": 29.653125540947222} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-dfbc299d6d30 | 4193.970473705919 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the Japanese Grand Prix with a 10+ second lead? | 1712473259949 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.6718489840991313 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933078139 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen wins the race in Japan, with a gap of 10 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen has a pen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004832510691868852} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473259949 | 260 | Arch1e | 1712473259949 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933078287}, {"name": "Red Bull", "slug": "red-bull", "groupId": "02d7a2ea-9c5e-4247-a262-ee9abc97f2da", "createdTime": 1711933078292}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz... | ["motorsports", "red-bull", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712473100858 | 1 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42733519693574146 | MDd1GtBO4fpXyeo4cEEP | {"NO": 58.576312150722416, "YES": 837.3246575501208} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-both-fer-9d9b437cac87 | 690 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will both Ferrari drivers beat Sergio Perez at the Japanese Grand Prix? | 1712473248512 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.441084444815726 | True | play | NO | public | 1711933098715 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if both Ferrari cars (Leclerc, Sainz, or a reserve) finish ahead of Perez in the Sunday race in Japan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if one of the Ferrari cars is u... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0496131429533054} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473248512 | 200 | Arch1e | 1712473248512 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933098849}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933098852}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["auto-racing", "motorsports", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712471828804 | 0.05 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3615284328972571 | BGjzYMRPK7iCkGOViRsC | {"NO": 38.706866386613925, "YES": 1065.2123372917545} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-the-driv-fdb40c2d3b6f | 923 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will the drivers finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd all be from different teams at the Japanese GP? | 1712473233751 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5487713433801944 | True | play | NO | public | 1711933118260 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if each position on the podium is occupied by a driver from a different team, e.g. 1st - MV (Red Bull), 2nd - LN (McLaren), 3rd - LH (Mercedes).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.020160789594593966} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473233751 | 160 | Arch1e | 1712473233751 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933118414}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933118416}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["formula-1", "auto-racing", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712472785976 | 0.02 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49894436317169766 | qDls0CZTXjVW4g8LFgNG | {"NO": 8.921892647943196, "YES": 2307.8943970775185} | 0 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-russell-8f65e04a7587 | 970 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Russell qualify in a higher position than Hamilton at the Japanese Grand Prix? | 1712386962919 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.629287867365586 | True | play | NO | public | 1711933140564 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if George Russel out-qualifies Lewis Hamilton during qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he has a later grid penalty that moves him down the o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3093289347783375} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712386962919 | 180 | Arch1e | 1712386962919 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933140714}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933140726}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712386909257 | 0 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4941378592661915 | 4pPvKg4aiIzldFxPhLzs | {"NO": 1958.5173654731707, "YES": 7.451804169364323} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-sainz-qu | 857.7039038104821 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Sainz qualify in a higher position than Leclerc at the Japanese Grand Prix? | 1712386951805 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.902338550390642 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933162658 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Carlos Sainz out-qualifies Charles Leclerc during qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he has a later grid penalty that moves him down the o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.068516902389551} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712386951805 | 140 | Arch1e | 1712386951805 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933162818}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933162813}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["auto-racing", "formula-1", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712386904671 | 1 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5928103125219827 | yfqkjLXQOAduMHavZnTw | {"NO": 4449.796368512887, "YES": 18.48561728724917} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-perez-qu-905ac046ff89 | 2476.847727470366 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Perez qualify within 0.375 seconds or outqualify Max Verstappen at the Japanese GP? | 1712387108291 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8600703502497984 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933210834 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the gap between Perez and Verstappen in qualifying is 0.375 seconds or lower at the Japanese Grand Prix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10991254782314419} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712387108291 | 240 | Arch1e | 1712388148034 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933212493}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933212496}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["auto-racing", "motorsports", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712386858377 | 1712388147442 | 1 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45506891244814435 | tInCfaYaSQiFoMO8ij9M | {"NO": 1684.4026708323743, "YES": 9.926104510064818} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-the-gap-215662885458 | 1707.7440474162636 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will the gap between 1st and 2nd in qualifying be 0.1 seconds or less at the Japanese GP? | 1712387098550 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.433445016099622 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933235305 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the gap between the final times of qualifying in 1st and 2nd is exactly equal to 0.100 seconds, or less.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.7147573885784538} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712387098550 | 180 | Arch1e | 1712387098550 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933239453}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933239456}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7x... | ["formula-1", "motorsports", "auto-racing"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712387017814 | 1712386982525 | 0.99 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5126122881422109 | 2ycyZrXtnuzlfmC97g41 | {"NO": 1789.1982938931333, "YES": 26.902664364450175} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-any-driv | 5778.5739363068315 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any driver from the Top 5 constructors be eliminated in Q1 during qualifying in Japan? | 1712384692461 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.186548470150081 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933276516 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin fail to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a replacement/re... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.9776500909156238} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712384692461 | 280 | Arch1e | 1712384692461 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33", "createdTime": 1711933276797}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933276794}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["motorsports", "auto-racing", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712384561609 | 1712384494246 | 0.99 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5655392525689976 | X0vIvKKwiidehL53tjBT | {"NO": 3031.1028667400806, "YES": 39.01491624999994} | 1 | 2024-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-f556b9f43d22 | 3909.4801456697146 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen qualify first, win the race and have the fastest lap at the Japanese GP? | 1712473413997 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8750105795047736 | True | play | YES | public | 1711933291332 | Archie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen qualifies 1st, then goes on to win the Japanese Grand Prix with the fastest lap by race end.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen qualifies first but is mov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01967553363075447} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712473413997 | 280 | Arch1e | 1712473413997 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674748485128 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933291741}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933291744}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd... | ["formula-1", "auto-racing", "motorsports"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712473336121 | 1712471400758 | 0.99 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44650050894717386 | uAjEOkqHGWXZp07jFvfi | {"NO": 2286.3062505645707, "YES": 324.1558834927687} | 0.8505152534893143 | will-twitter-user-deprogrammingsock | 6507.504373474815 | Will Twitter user @deprogrammingsocks transition or make plans do to so by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | mvRVvzRxMwXtrMqNVOHHYqfSmUB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.792493635185984 | False | basic | public | 1711933491489 | Not Reddit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if deprogrammingsocks makes a post informing a decision to transition from male to female. (EG: Jokes about treatments, pronouns, a changing gender identity, et cetera.) Resolves \"No\" if by the end of 2025 deprogrammingsocks has ... | BINARY | {"day": 0.0001233222844835291, "week": 0.06393730942972564, "month": 0.32994465276484597} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.36376280980512, "platformFee": 1.7767704440987477, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1 | 1000 | Reddit | 1720175094131 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaK4U2pC9Lh.20?alt=media&token=f4ef7c11-2ec8-4959-9acb-4be933729a85 | 1705292037634 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720175091069 | 1719673366077 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5765776120389071 | ffRNfB2vkdOdzMntQdNk | {"NO": 731.968104279218, "YES": 378.988764666981} | 0.7245151632295683 | if-i-drive-from-houston-to-austin-o | 301.19131671036416 | If I drive from Houston to Austin on sunday morning (2024-04-07), will I arrive in less than six hours? | 1712420886725 | qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7493349004460137 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711933552323 | Elspeth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712420886725 | 507.5 | Elspeth | 1712420886725 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668378966771 | 0 | [{"name": "Eclipse", "slug": "eclipse", "groupId": "4bd0a32d-97da-4479-8fd0-43d0d5a7a63c", "createdTime": 1711933552563}] | ["eclipse"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712232343453 | 1711988340035 | 0.72 | qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bLuQKBhpKg4jEeTjzdRN | would-you-rather-take-the-red-pill | 0 | Would you rather take the Red pill or Blue pill from the Matrix? | 1712611223516 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711934086483 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ruv8pOMrrrFSSWvAtxNs", "label": "/strutheo/will-manifold-choose-to-take-the-re"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712611260435 | strutheo | 1712611226057 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1711934086636}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711934086651}, {"name": "Public Opinion", "slug": "public-opinion", "groupId": "Lt7NilEBMhPG... | ["manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "public-opinion", "pop-culture", "movies"] | 0.25 | 1712548609036 | ["16b8a860fa1d"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5jsBSF5JLkteHuMn1As9 | which-country-will-be-the-second-on | 1609.8522411627353 | Which country will be the second one to walk on the moon? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711935188761 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The country must lead the mission to the moon, it does not resolve if it is a person of another nationality going on a USA mission. USA will not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.066504435563817, "platformFee": 1.689172890643061, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1580 | strutheo | 1717563702013 | 0 | 52 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "736272570ab6", "prob": 0.6851576986343232, "text": "China", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1019.651616710214, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 468.5482805435338, "textFts": "'china':1", "contractId": "5jsBSF5JLkteHuMn1As9", "createdTime": 1711935188761, "probChanges": {"day": 0.058... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "ISRO", "slug": "isro", "groupId": "e526e625-c715-4289-baae-63416a524092", "createdTime": 1711935189166}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1711935189168}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711935189... | ["isro", "space", "spacex", "moon-landers", "artemis-3", "moon", "world-default", "culture-default", "space-exploration", "space-colonization"] | 0.25 | 1717563698492 | 1712060214642 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hsY3sm5TwxZWtkIzUBtX | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted | 4261.279808349426 | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in April 2024 according to Manifold? | 1714535940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | 95b3e707124d | public | 1711935283877 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decided by LIKES on the comments below after market close, 'Other' will not be eligible to win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be related to Manifold in some way by my judgement, and n... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 54.92432717303171, "platformFee": 54.92432717303171, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714537412640 | 4620 | strutheo | 1714535940000 | 0 | 37 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "55edae21effd", "prob": 0.003774233802088358, "text": "die a hero - chris", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.024264248676547, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3965.721242392519, "textFts": "'chris':4 'die':1 'hero':3", "contractId": "hsY3sm5TwxZWtkIzUBtX", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68j... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Funny", "slug": "funny", "groupId": "69ba1356-341e-4989-a7c1-df4741d524a5", "createdTime": 1711935284170}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1711935284178}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l73... | ["funny", "metamarkets", "internet", "memes", "manifold-users", "april", "pop-culture", "entertainment", "manifold-6748e065087e", "jokes"] | 0.25 | 1714535925877 | 1714536499235 | {"95b3e707124d": 100} | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vS3j92Y86VrDoQNpR7NR | what-will-be-the-best-ai-generated-2aa4f85e33f3 | 2463.8778142250326 | 🖼️What will be the best AI generated Manifold banner created in Q2 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1719782598719 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | b1e8bdd33131 | public | 1711935358490 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit banners by adding a comment with a description, then adding an option above. The community will rate them based on their own personal taste, whether it be funny or beautiful.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.229491435340034, "platformFee": 2.3539160796728744, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719782598719 | 1600 | strutheo | 1719782598719 | 0 | 18 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cfc11df4d85a", "prob": 0.0029683847479983357, "text": "which chess engine https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-chess-engine-will-be-the-stro", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.864253262172769, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 962.0555618339715, "textFts": "'/strutheo/which-chess... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711935358702}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1711935358703}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ",... | ["ai", "metamarkets", "manifold-6748e065087e", "design", "artificial-intelligence", "ai-art"] | 0.25 | 1719782589750 | 1719521095329 | {"b1e8bdd33131": 100} | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8129772771041249 | UMYBtHlmxUKzGmVYuywy | {"NO": 2264.287994341152, "YES": 798.3389219713329} | 0.9249757032805969 | will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-1f97ac2fe792 | 2471.673533241115 | Will a woman walk on the moon before the end of 2050? | 2556161940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.88157992705109 | False | basic | public | 1711935797945 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.706487677122016, "platformFee": 0.28328115319533614, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1717294879318 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711935798098}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1711935798106}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1711935798... | ["spacex", "science-default", "moon", "women", "space-exploration", "space-colonization", "space", "moon-landers"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717294876145 | 1716904364544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6003899839674787 | R7fBp7IyEXW2MHJSsT1S | {"NO": 1070.857439555357, "YES": 944.9088274298168} | 0.6300000000000006 | will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-18f62d276262 | 994.9031268963379 | Will a woman walk on the moon before the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.70834945180495 | False | basic | public | 1711935817551 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6915452483492972, "platformFee": 0.6915452483492972, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1713904748351 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711935817794}, {"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e7b-b9be-d94202705305", "createdTime": 1711935817804}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 171193581... | ["spacex", "women", "moon", "moon-landers", "space-colonization", "science-default", "space", "space-exploration"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713879664541 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7314356067223928 | pJcxhiZpJStljvYHiL0b | {"NO": 745.6723169262436, "YES": 417.3543190907562} | 0.8295256490961991 | shortfuse-will-i-be-able-to-fly-out | 1185.230135969466 | [short-fuse 💣] Will I be able to fly out of LAX with only my smartphone? | 1712346524379 | UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9330330997063662 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711935902404 | Erik | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve successfully signed up for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CA DMV Wallet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ca-dmv-wallet/id6449002508", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712346524379 | 520 | Kire_ | 1717943034864 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700311191372 | 0 | [{"name": "Travel", "slug": "travel", "groupId": "EMJGCVmmk2GpTD7pH0wV", "createdTime": 1711935902540}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1711935902552}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTim... | ["travel", "personal-goals", "california", "air-travel", "short-fuse", "manifold-users", "technology-default", "futurism", "los-angeles", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712320735081 | 1717943033466 | 0.83 | UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ulhic1LuDVoMmFjARZx6 | usa-users-how-significant-is-immigr | 0 | [USA Users] How significant is immigration policy when considering who you will support in the 2024 elections? | 1714539540000 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711936091096 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is designed to help gauge the political nature of American Manifold users.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714539540961 | thepurplebull | 1712006974933 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 48 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | [{"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1711936091232}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711936091240}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDl... | ["magaland", "us-politics", "politics-default", "democratic-party"] | 0.25 | 1712006974344 | ["4bbd2e037c45"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4371217215870884 | YfPvzM3GYeaePIj4jYNh | {"NO": 104.51612903225804, "YES": 194.99999999999997} | 0.2939015429831009 | will-the-american-diabetes-associat | 55 | Will the American Diabetes Association cease to exist before 2030? | 1893391140000 | qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711936222931 | Elspeth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/tiras_corner/status/1773821798444155358", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/tiras_corner/status/1773821798444155358", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prim... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Elspeth | 1711939321864 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668378966771 | 0 | [{"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1711936223082}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1711936223102}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 17... | ["public-health", "health", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711939318636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6889075192927941 | UW4PXmlQygENoQJTy15m | {"NO": 1118.4985046163697, "YES": 840.217877830144} | 0.7467017155332882 | will-the-best-tacit-knowledge-video | 336.6013374436807 | Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.703415561285574 | False | basic | public | 1711936483045 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.007400556699770133} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.326542581252578, "platformFee": 2.5498557022201687, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719085319416 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711936483209}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719085316321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5482830423722101 | WoyoVN6USQHi24uzF2Rh | {"NO": 336.35090621602006, "YES": 239.29261178098687} | 0.6304630302229409 | joshua-stonkjosh-stock-approval-ind-a04b82c5d43f | 856.8811332534392 | Joshua (STONK:JOSH) Stock Approval Index | 1745184000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711936804575 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy Yes when Joshua is good at being Joshua. Buy No when Joshua is bad at being Joshua.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12815915622414645, "platformFee": 0.12815915622414645, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | KeenenW | 1719008184287 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Investment Stonks", "slug": "investment-stonks", "groupId": "460866da-7a5f-4f1b-b27e-71cd86056a82", "createdTime": 1711936804759}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1711936804760}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", ... | ["investment-stonks", "manifold-users", "permanent-markets", "meme-stocks", "stonks", "joshua", "-manifans", "manifold-6748e065087e", "goat-stocks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1716194957580 | 1712136449939 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5222419655214162 | xl4eQRQA1HDGOPbJlwb0 | {"NO": 198.82780010757548, "YES": 163.86304304844057} | 0.5701430374462665 | -will-the-us-state-of-hawaii-be-inc | 30 | 🇺🇸🌐 Will The U.S. State of Hawaii Be Included In Article 5 Protection Provided In NATO By July 2062? | 1718654066317 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711937878433 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🇺🇸🌐 Will The U.S. State of Hawaii Be Included In Article 5 Protection Provided In NATO By July 2062?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718654066317 | 180 | SirCryptomind | 1718654066317 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1711937878587}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1711937878594}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "c... | ["united-states", "nato", "geopolitics", "hawaii", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712346495174 | 0.57 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hd6Cl1wwXd2YfJ5jXJHv | which-one-is-better-before-the-end | 0 | Which one is better: "Before the end of (month)" or "Before (month)" | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1711938047778 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FY8XeDQ9XJf.png?alt=media&token=c1637729-3927-4915-bac0-8febd8c81e49", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AmmonLam | 1711941214970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1711938053657}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1711941214423 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49499742348790227 | fM99QbitcErN0P6eX5Ro | {"NO": 133.20133832100908, "YES": 147.2298753977258} | 0.4700000000000001 | -will-puerto-rico-us-territory-be-i | 14.247254996402228 | 🇺🇸🌐 Will Puerto Rico (US Territory) Be Included In Article 5 Protection Provided By NATO Before July 2062? | 1718654083150 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711938055298 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🇺🇸🌐 Will Puerto Rico (US Territory) Be Included In Article 5 Protection Provided By NATO Before July 2062?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "b... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718654083150 | 140 | SirCryptomind | 1718654083150 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1711938056916}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1711938059052}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "c... | ["united-states", "geopolitics", "nato", "politics-default", "puerto-rico"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712362544033 | 0.47 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4084383834750123 | LzXQc4fdqguh0UN7MqsX | {"NO": 142.6529584492932, "YES": 8730.559498407518} | 0 | will-any-democratic-primary-nationa-17c544ea1df9 | 9808.467417263828 | Will any Democratic Primary National poll in April 2024 show >80% support for Biden? | 1714708740000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711938382710 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to 538 data:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fiveth... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.502808574386652, "platformFee": 16.502808574386652, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714743820651 | 780 | AmmonLam | 1714708740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711938382907}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711938382913}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714689583222 | 1714095489598 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31231139622051196 | NaJu7EyasNL1utE3cRyc | {"NO": 79.60910815589898, "YES": 3579.265857767634} | 0 | will-any-democratic-primary-nationa-9dff329dfec1 | 3609.490224195528 | Will any Democratic Primary National poll in April 2024 show >82% support for Biden? | 1714708740000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711938483305 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to 538 data:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fiveth... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.071857347906443, "platformFee": 5.071857347906443, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714743823520 | 280 | AmmonLam | 1714708740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711938483451}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711938483464}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714675129805 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40504023162230784 | ysvqCZ4ZZMFRtSkTOA3v | {"NO": 39.754190068038156, "YES": 2679.345182120714} | 0 | will-any-democratic-primary-nationa-9214bad12bce | 2482.925184350079 | Will any Democratic Primary National poll in April 2024 show >78% support for Biden? | 1714576783521 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711938541831 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to 538 data:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fiveth... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.59557691146844, "platformFee": 2.59557691146844, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714576783521 | 240 | AmmonLam | 1714576783521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711938541996}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711938541990}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "g... | ["donald-trump", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714552878805 | 1714552885663 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6886211435479719 | ZkWuIxWU4razjtNI6srZ | {"NO": 1026.5250395257642, "YES": 972.9353789052126} | 0.6999999999999996 | will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-110a7c39e59b | 289.6965868444525 | Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.582699409461423 | False | basic | public | 1711938587268 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3393731635651323, "platformFee": 0.3393731635651323, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714347781929 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e7b-b9be-d94202705305", "createdTime": 1711938587403}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1711938587409}, {"name": "Moon landers", "slug": "moon-landers", "groupId": "00d242b4-6506-4f64-9185-993ce32bc480",... | ["women", "moon", "moon-landers", "united-nations", "politics-default", "un", "geopolitics", "first-female-potus", "artemis-3", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714347778014 | 1711941558614 |
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