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voter-turnout-of-the-eu-elections-i
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Voter turnout of the EU elections in June?
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1711920109526
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siraben
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peppapig69
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James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if they aren’t registered then it will resolve independent. If the candidate makes a fake political party to make it easier to get on a states ballot, it will still resolve to independent.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will Arturo defeat waldo in 1v1 when he gets ungrounded
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cpmm-1
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1711921369733
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effective survival skills!
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none
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1711921525140
Saul Munn
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Would you prefer to live under permanent Daylight Savings/Summer Time, or permanent Standard time?
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themightysalmon
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Permanent” means there would be no switch between Daylight Savings/Summer time and Standard time at any point during the year - it’s either one or the other year-round. Which would YOU prefer? ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will the first hurricane of the 2024 season be in the Atlantic or Pacific
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cpmm-multi-1
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MKT
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1711921863956
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be a hurricane not just a tropical storm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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play
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1711922151021
James
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be a hurricane not a tropical storm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029?
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cpmm-1
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the S&P 500 index experience a 40% decline between now and March, 2029.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will both Ferrari drivers beat Sergio Perez at the Japanese Grand Prix?
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[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will the gap between 1st and 2nd in qualifying be 0.1 seconds or less at the Japanese GP?
1712387098550
tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
cpmm-1
0
4.433445016099622
True
play
YES
public
1711933235305
Archie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the gap between the final times of qualifying in 1st and 2nd is exactly equal to 0.100 seconds, or less.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1712387098550
180
Arch1e
1712387098550
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0.3333333333333333
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0.5
1712387017814
1712386982525
0.99
tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
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2ycyZrXtnuzlfmC97g41
{"NO": 1789.1982938931333, "YES": 26.902664364450175}
1
2024-formula-1-season-will-any-driv
5778.5739363068315
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any driver from the Top 5 constructors be eliminated in Q1 during qualifying in Japan?
1712384692461
tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
cpmm-1
0
3.186548470150081
True
play
YES
public
1711933276516
Archie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin fail to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a replacement/re...
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1712384692461
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Arch1e
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https://firebasestorage.…904-e72df9cde7a1
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0.3333333333333333
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1712384561609
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tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
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{"NO": 3031.1028667400806, "YES": 39.01491624999994}
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2024-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-f556b9f43d22
3909.4801456697146
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen qualify first, win the race and have the fastest lap at the Japanese GP?
1712473413997
tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
cpmm-1
0
2.8750105795047736
True
play
YES
public
1711933291332
Archie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen qualifies 1st, then goes on to win the Japanese Grand Prix with the fastest lap by race end.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen qualifies first but is mov...
BINARY
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1712473413997
280
Arch1e
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0.3333333333333333
1674748485128
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[{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711933291741}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1711933291744}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd...
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1712473336121
1712471400758
0.99
tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1
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{"NO": 2286.3062505645707, "YES": 324.1558834927687}
0.8505152534893143
will-twitter-user-deprogrammingsock
6507.504373474815
Will Twitter user @deprogrammingsocks transition or make plans do to so by EOY 2025?
1767243540000
mvRVvzRxMwXtrMqNVOHHYqfSmUB2
cpmm-1
0
9.792493635185984
False
basic
public
1711933491489
Not Reddit
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if deprogrammingsocks makes a post informing a decision to transition from male to female. (EG: Jokes about treatments, pronouns, a changing gender identity, et cetera.) Resolves \"No\" if by the end of 2025 deprogrammingsocks has ...
BINARY
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Reddit
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0.3333333333333333
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if-i-drive-from-houston-to-austin-o
301.19131671036416
If I drive from Houston to Austin on sunday morning (2024-04-07), will I arrive in less than six hours?
1712420886725
qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1
cpmm-1
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0.7493349004460137
True
play
CANCEL
public
1711933552323
Elspeth
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BINARY
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507.5
Elspeth
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1712232343453
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qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1
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would-you-rather-take-the-red-pill
0
Would you rather take the Red pill or Blue pill from the Matrix?
1712611223516
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
none
0
1
True
public
1711934086483
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ruv8pOMrrrFSSWvAtxNs", "label": "/strutheo/will-manifold-choose-to-take-the-re"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
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1712611260435
strutheo
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0.25
1712548609036
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which-country-will-be-the-second-on
1609.8522411627353
Which country will be the second one to walk on the moon?
1925009940000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1711935188761
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The country must lead the mission to the moon, it does not resolve if it is a person of another nationality going on a USA mission. USA will not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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1580
strutheo
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https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
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0
ANYONE
[{"id": "736272570ab6", "prob": 0.6851576986343232, "text": "China", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1019.651616710214, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 468.5482805435338, "textFts": "'china':1", "contractId": "5jsBSF5JLkteHuMn1As9", "createdTime": 1711935188761, "probChanges": {"day": 0.058...
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["isro", "space", "spacex", "moon-landers", "artemis-3", "moon", "world-default", "culture-default", "space-exploration", "space-colonization"]
0.25
1717563698492
1712060214642
True
prob-desc
hsY3sm5TwxZWtkIzUBtX
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted
4261.279808349426
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in April 2024 according to Manifold?
1714535940000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-multi-1
0
1
True
basic
95b3e707124d
public
1711935283877
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decided by LIKES on the comments below after market close, 'Other' will not be eligible to win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be related to Manifold in some way by my judgement, and n...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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1714537412640
4620
strutheo
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0
ANYONE
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0.3333333333333333
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[{"name": "Funny", "slug": "funny", "groupId": "69ba1356-341e-4989-a7c1-df4741d524a5", "createdTime": 1711935284170}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1711935284178}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l73...
["funny", "metamarkets", "internet", "memes", "manifold-users", "april", "pop-culture", "entertainment", "manifold-6748e065087e", "jokes"]
0.25
1714535925877
1714536499235
{"95b3e707124d": 100}
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True
prob-desc
vS3j92Y86VrDoQNpR7NR
what-will-be-the-best-ai-generated-2aa4f85e33f3
2463.8778142250326
🖼️What will be the best AI generated Manifold banner created in Q2 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
True
basic
b1e8bdd33131
public
1711935358490
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit banners by adding a comment with a description, then adding an option above. The community will rate them based on their own personal taste, whether it be funny or beautiful.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1719782598719
1600
strutheo
1719782598719
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https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
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1
ANYONE
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1719782589750
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{"b1e8bdd33131": 100}
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True
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0.8129772771041249
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{"NO": 2264.287994341152, "YES": 798.3389219713329}
0.9249757032805969
will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-1f97ac2fe792
2471.673533241115
Will a woman walk on the moon before the end of 2050?
2556161940000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
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9.88157992705109
False
basic
public
1711935797945
chris (strutheo)
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BINARY
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0
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strutheo
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0
0.3333333333333333
1700846926650
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[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711935798098}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1711935798106}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1711935798...
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0.25
0.5
1717294876145
1716904364544
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{"NO": 1070.857439555357, "YES": 944.9088274298168}
0.6300000000000006
will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-18f62d276262
994.9031268963379
Will a woman walk on the moon before the end of 2030?
1925009940000
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
cpmm-1
0
9.70834945180495
False
basic
public
1711935817551
chris (strutheo)
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
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strutheo
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0
0.3333333333333333
1700846926650
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0.25
0.5
1713879664541
0.7314356067223928
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0.8295256490961991
shortfuse-will-i-be-able-to-fly-out
1185.230135969466
[short-fuse 💣] Will I be able to fly out of LAX with only my smartphone?
1712346524379
UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3
cpmm-1
0
0.9330330997063662
True
play
CANCEL
public
1711935902404
Erik
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve successfully signed up for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CA DMV Wallet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ca-dmv-wallet/id6449002508", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
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1712346524379
520
Kire_
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https://firebasestorage.…44d-7c8fd5546156
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0.3333333333333333
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[{"name": "Travel", "slug": "travel", "groupId": "EMJGCVmmk2GpTD7pH0wV", "createdTime": 1711935902540}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1711935902552}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTim...
["travel", "personal-goals", "california", "air-travel", "short-fuse", "manifold-users", "technology-default", "futurism", "los-angeles", "personal"]
0.25
0.5
1712320735081
1717943033466
0.83
UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3
ulhic1LuDVoMmFjARZx6
usa-users-how-significant-is-immigr
0
[USA Users] How significant is immigration policy when considering who you will support in the 2024 elections?
1714539540000
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
none
0
1
True
public
1711936091096
Magnus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll is designed to help gauge the political nature of American Manifold users.", "type": "text"}]}]}
POLL
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0
1714539540961
thepurplebull
1712006974933
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
48
0
0.3333333333333333
1700605001274
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[{"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1711936091232}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711936091240}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDl...
["magaland", "us-politics", "politics-default", "democratic-party"]
0.25
1712006974344
["4bbd2e037c45"]
0.4371217215870884
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{"NO": 104.51612903225804, "YES": 194.99999999999997}
0.2939015429831009
will-the-american-diabetes-associat
55
Will the American Diabetes Association cease to exist before 2030?
1893391140000
qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1
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