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0.3421052631578944 | 7fZ2yWgAzgLlBmXmzzYH | {"NO": 25.672881609778642, "YES": 1220} | 0 | will-the-nikkei-225-close-higher-on-d3667219b54b | 1610 | Will the Nikkei 225 close higher on April 1st than its opening price? | 1712040244867 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.61726509062596 | True | play | NO | public | 1711946634627 | RiskOptimization | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010824096595785202} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712040244867 | 120 | RiskOptimization | 1712040244867 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705974765884 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1711946634778}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711946634777}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1... | ["finance", "economics-default", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711981635262 | 0.01 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | 256.1534904359375 | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | 1718942340000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711947176752 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FOR CONTEXT: It turns out Lil Basil is ACTUALLY NOT A BASIL PLANT. Yeah, I know. The whole world is in shambles. It may be a Catnip, a Mint, or something else. You can judge for yourself:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6638156898170018, "platformFee": 0.6638156898170018, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719169996650 | 690 | Bayesian | 1719173526644 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dc6e26977d47", "prob": 0.02965310136300909, "text": "Lil' Basil", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.13498881083529, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 331.65013129394515, "textFts": "'basil':2 'lil':1", "contractId": "ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt", "resolverId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2... | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "The Great Basil Empire", "slug": "the-great-basil-empire", "groupId": "d05db168-9f6d-4278-a36a-724606092c0c", "createdTime": 1711947177386}, {"name": "Plants", "slug": "plants", "groupId": "77f8a35a-0f81-4411-b685-cf0d9b613d7a", "createdTime": 1711947177388}] | ["the-great-basil-empire", "plants"] | 0.25 | 1714517472627 | 1719173524740 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.395512394233965 | TQy9ceUPkvdiPjWvzjzG | {"NO": 113.25600300873349, "YES": 247.16965821485127} | 0.2306537875712094 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-1-whe-fbc093ebab7d | 99.19131671036409 | Will I encounter Issue Number 1 when I resolve this market? | 1712538060000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711947717976 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Charlie | 1712531862283 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712531859067 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NcjhqpoWxXACccMbRVjw | 20242025-big-ten-mens-basketball-co | 205 | 2024-2025 Big Ten Men's Basketball Conference Win% | 1741669140000 | Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711948379641 | AnAnonymousSource | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option will resolve to the percentage of games won in Big Ten play by the corresponding team. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 850 | AnAnonymousSource | 1712134561136 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "0f1f1a32b934", "prob": 0.7641509433962264, "text": "Purdue", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.99999999999999, "userId": "Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.061728395061735, "textFts": "'purdu':1", "contractId": "NcjhqpoWxXACccMbRVjw", "createdTime": 1711948379641, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711946691323 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "groupId": "beeb69e0-b36f-451a-80e1-e059df456bb1", "createdTime": 1711948380193}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711948380192}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId":... | ["college-basketball", "sports-default", "basketball", "big-ten"] | 0.25 | 1712134556328 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.504587536170925 | 1JBrQ78yYH0ONioiW0DS | {"NO": 209.08967394660544, "YES": 155.27303341417453} | 0.5783317523901913 | will-there-be-a-first-female-direct | 60 | Will there be a first female director of the FBI before the NSA? | 2556161940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711948824464 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In May 2018 Gina Haspel became the first female director of the CIA.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | strutheo | 1712102172653 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e7b-b9be-d94202705305", "createdTime": 1711948824685}, {"name": "Intelligence/Spying", "slug": "intelligencespying", "groupId": "e08df100-e8fa-4271-a941-4b7867ab8feb", "createdTime": 1711948824687}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "group... | ["women", "intelligencespying", "us-politics", "fbi", "united-states"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712102169408 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 3fvt5Cd8f6bQSyIW9Hmr | {"NO": 104.08329997330651, "YES": 96.07689228305236} | 0 | daily-coinflip-364ceae78642 | 4989.969624968563 | Daily coinflip | 1712116740000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.2402886236841263 | True | play | NO | public | 1711948881804 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 130)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.49999999999999994} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712126167778 | 100 | Traveel | 1712116740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1711948882152}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1711948882154}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1712107714234 | 1712125991798 | 0.52 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k7weFITZFT7XdHsraDuv | which-of-these-positions-that-have | 647.4680116425013 | 🚺Which of these positions that have never been women will have their first by the end of 2040? [ADD RESPONSES] | 2240629140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711948979584 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9819797264686541, "platformFee": 0.9819797264686541, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1270 | strutheo | 1715719801154 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "35772ae42493", "prob": 0.7375697345941221, "text": "USA President", "index": 0, "poolNo": 134.98720724443527, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.028988937634885, "textFts": "'presid':2 'usa':1", "contractId": "k7weFITZFT7XdHsraDuv", "createdTime": 1711948979585, "probChan... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711948980123}, {"name": "Women", "slug": "women", "groupId": "a0824df9-b437-4e7b-b9be-d94202705305", "createdTime": 1711948980124}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC",... | ["us-politics", "women", "culture-default", "politics-default", "society-people"] | 0.25 | 1715719797918 | 1715719445367 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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lsdJo5NeZXtPjXVI6vJM | in-the-fictional-universe-i-run-wil | 93.73616980393872 | In the fictional universe I run, will the Walruses, Mosquitos or Tigers win election to the head of the animal assembly? | 1713240703756 | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711949914057 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I run a sort of fictional universe which I give my friends regular updates on via Whatsapp, focused on the adventures of a hardworking Bear \"DIPLOAMMAMAT\". Can you guess what's going to happen?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713240703756 | 240 | PhilosophyBear | 1713240865606 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2ffcd303b9b2", "prob": 0.47, "text": "Walruses", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.14683144403962, "userId": "91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.75840169197355, "textFts": "'walrus':1", "contractId": "lsdJo5NeZXtPjXVI6vJM", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2", "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | [{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1711949914267}, {"name": "Bearworld", "slug": "bearworld", "groupId": "5200e153-0972-438b-a4fb-a52ebc5761b5", "createdTime": 1711949914266}, {"name": "snakes", "slug": "snakes", "groupId": "dee40520-9a67-4a02-afa0-7a42322bd87b", "... | ["fiction", "bearworld", "snakes", "bears", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1712961132572 | 1713240864822 | 0.47 | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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65obDXdb0lm4utTDFdPp | what-smart-humanoid-bots-capabiliti | 257.9812878388856 | What smart humanoid bots' capabilities will be showcased in videos by 2030? | 1925074740000 | ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711956577075 | Simone Romeo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The bots must be smart, humanoid, and execute the actions autonomously so that it would count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can add more skills. I'll resolve them N/A if they can't be r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5519043730732325, "platformFee": 0.5519043730732325, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 685 | SimoneRomeo | 1714036788310 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "055975a3f440", "prob": 0.6990063220605046, "text": "Solves a Rubik's Cube in under 30 seconds.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 103.47597698711513, "userId": "ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.55698597964678, "textFts": "'30':8 'cube':5 'rubik':3 'second':9 'solv':1", "contractId": "65obDXd... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702703079293 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711956577294}, {"name": "Humanoid robotics", "slug": "humanoid-robotics", "groupId": "c0d8e463-ef4a-4a29-90b2-4f7bcf5034bb", "createdTime": 1711956577298}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqz... | ["technology-default", "humanoid-robotics", "ai", "ai-impacts", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 1714036784995 | 1711957728055 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OoxUFNHZ4s9bk51hdy4V | which-pair-of-stocks-will-perform-b | 6002.41259939944 | Which pair of stocks will perform better during April 2024? | 1714517612187 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 4e3b7acea685 | public | 1711957790228 | Omar B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only stocks in NYSE and Nasdaq will be considered.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution will be based on the following data:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.857628046916924, "platformFee": 10.857628046916924, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714517612187 | 2490 | OmarB | 1714517612187 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a6430844c373", "prob": 0.0032055606051045703, "text": "NVDA+GOOG", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.810634994642214, "userId": "4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4294.52625080624, "textFts": "'goog':2 'nvda':1", "contractId": "OoxUFNHZ4s9bk51hdy4V", "resolverId": "4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697294914972 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711957790456}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1711957790458}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17119577904... | ["economics-default", "stocks", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1714517573566 | 1712071286973 | {"4e3b7acea685": 100} | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XmgtzNQijy8rynqd1Gmb | what-will-be-true-about-tesla-fsd-b | 1511.3532582401717 | What will be true about Tesla FSD by end 2025? | 1767308340000 | ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1711958306145 | Simone Romeo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.971578994448873, "platformFee": 2.672833191843009, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimoneRomeo | 1718729027050 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c | 30 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "99ccd203c904", "prob": 0.7242758242393816, "text": "It will be level 3 autonomy or higher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 427.1614937612519, "userId": "ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 162.61588036254602, "textFts": "'3':5 'autonomi':6 'higher':8 'level':4", "contractId": "XmgtzNQijy8rynqd1G... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702703079293 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1711958306353}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1711958306349}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17119583063... | ["tesla", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "ai", "technology-default", "tesla-fsd"] | 0.25 | 1718729023993 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MaDY3TpNzmnDgl5ThCXe | warp-ethan-sleep-deprivation | 0 | WARP Ethan sleep deprivation | 1711959914481 | IhHNBRhpDlZPPwasZvFpNNDD8nH2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711958396787 | Sarah Badenhorst | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711959914481 | SarahBadenhorst | 1711958396787 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLHV1ksmGhPupm_JnVxzDW8oKAVDbAohh_ZeCgAMqAF0_k=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["m33GeJ3XG682pxdUQ0LN"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711812593713 | 0 | 0.25 | IhHNBRhpDlZPPwasZvFpNNDD8nH2 | 500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.468683425649765 | 2WS0ObCuRdM41IG8qVSp | {"NO": 88.9655172413793, "YES": 164.99999999999991} | 0 | set-and-get-my-burpee-goal-at-least-6ff2518e61e0 | 45 | Set and get my burpee goal at least 3 weeks this month? | 1714536000000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711958409018 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717137684195 | 120 | Charlie | 1714536000000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712031275490 | 0.32 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LW1aJX7VRHZiae7gtnaW | which-volatility-level-will-rddt-ex | 1405.0250373389895 | Which volatility level will RDDT experience during April 2024? | 1714518069107 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711958464759 | Omar B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting value on April 1st: $49.32.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Crossing thresholds will be updated in comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To follow... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8294520077584742, "platformFee": 1.8294520077584742, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714518069107 | 200 | OmarB | 1714518069107 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "80ce86dd0ad6", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Low, crossing $46 and $52", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.353087835209578, "userId": "4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 430.95569568574774, "textFts": "'46':3 '52':5 'cross':2 'low':1", "contractId": "LW1aJX7VRHZiae7gtnaW", "resolution": "NO", "resolver... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697294914972 | 0 | 0.25 | 1714518042821 | 1713302392513 | 0.01 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5013674295935907 | R5LlhT8xJoGoJvbSe7mm | {"NO": 130.83729418866193, "YES": 110.09744350270964} | 0.5443973687306474 | will-i-hit-my-manifest-2024-expense | 31.54533923206627 | Will I Hit My Manifest 2024 Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist Before May 6th 2024? | 1712822036836 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.383732263252864 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1711958917279 | SirCryptomind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will I Hit My Manifest 2024 Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist Before May 6th 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712822036836 | 120 | SirCryptomind | 1712822036836 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673375788573 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1711958917433}, {"name": "Creator Partner Program", "slug": "creator-partner-program", "groupId": "cd58cb69-0ba9-4fd2-872a-973223fc5161", "createdTime": 1711958917434}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredicti... | ["personal-goals", "creator-partner-program", "nonpredictive", "manifest", "crowdfunding", "donations", "moderators"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1711986525298 | 1712821825380 | 0.54 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5375426563778861 | hB1P7gaP9BSKXtBjOE7W | {"NO": 410.996343472954, "YES": 70.17874204635461} | 0.8719144227595805 | will-there-be-a-paid-api-for-the-ne | 279.69386477769945 | Will there be a paid API for the new foundational DBRX LLM before June 24? | 1717279140000 | zGR1oVsQ29W1aokfTyO92cwaoAE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711959071274 | S Ky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3097917493465925, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | SKy | 1717274307062 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703034415217 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711959071696}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717274303900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5646422871142338 | Gxlwq76cCkJArkGtXypx | {"NO": 162.26076851676584, "YES": 119.61783126689515} | 0.6375918288961082 | will-i-finish-project-office-by-042 | 632.166765511467 | Will I finish Project Office by 04/20/2024? | 1713671940000 | OIv71xSCjVOdDqqrUVAQ5ecYZHj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711959919430 | Rob van Winkle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5879202015061796, "platformFee": 0.5879202015061796, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | fire | 1713670322325 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffire%2FRMFpoFR7O3.120161113225352000gdajkkg0?alt=media&token=073f6a33-590f-43e3-a3d4-62792473cc51 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711957021944 | 0 | [{"name": "Housing", "slug": "housing-22afc45777f5", "groupId": "84bb1ce8-5092-4b96-ba01-41c2d4d48ea9", "createdTime": 1711959919553}, {"name": "home remodeling", "slug": "home-remodeling", "groupId": "cf2a3319-6d7e-4edf-ab3f-a8032c68728f", "createdTime": 1711959919557}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-... | ["housing-22afc45777f5", "home-remodeling", "personal-goals", "horse-racing", "personal", "absurd"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713670318981 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4357430385308504 | jWuEM34tvFWbJfmexzhX | {"NO": 205.00063093277646, "YES": 158.19623954102866} | 0 | will-this-question-close-above-70-1f7034f0df29 | 1604.6736710156288 | Will this question close above 70%? | 1712037540000 | wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7412795022600152 | True | play | NO | public | 1711960080896 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Equal to 70% would be NO) Close as of 11:59pm MST 4/1/24", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3151790382094084} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712037578606 | 211.25 | cloontia | 1712037540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFYn6-3gJv7Zxvjj_BIY7UaZkXTWjYrn1xpD0KOjnlA4g=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696860314359 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1711960081039}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "groupId": "CPP1Je8R4IcZx4DDeWuE", "createdTime": 1711960081040}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b... | ["metamarkets", "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "short-fuse", "selfresolving"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712037535717 | 0.5 | wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.48116779946347876 | XwO2KVDOAjElzMm7CrcI | {"NO": 96.27520004914086, "YES": 208.78477791812705} | 0.2995466409825611 | will-a-logic-gate-exotic-transistor-1c995d9a1edb | 70 | Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone? | 2587697940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711966627820 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6076110409364629, "platformFee": 0.6076110409364629, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | StochasticParrot | 1715580942193 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715580937196 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TlIquJDd0c1GkJRMet8W | how-weirdly-volatile-will-djt-trump | 18115.77061583557 | How weirdly volatile will DJT (Trump Media & Tech Group Corp stock) be during April 2024? | 1714517790597 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1711967444772 | Omar B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting value on April 1st at $61.96", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To follow the changes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.56014678302496, "platformFee": 19.56014678302496, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714517790597 | 2025 | OmarB | 1714517790597 | 0 | 31 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e379f82eca0", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Up to $200", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.187657563580046, "userId": "4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 414.57809879442453, "textFts": "'200':3", "contractId": "TlIquJDd0c1GkJRMet8W", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2", "c... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697294914972 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711967445822}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711967445817}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1"... | ["technology-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 1714491630934 | 1714517691176 | 0.01 | 4whKWb3H9zU6BW4b2jrtc9VKxOT2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7493680771397476 | ugAZgjYaovJgPEFpFQko | {"NO": 0.21093716127643347, "YES": 869.4192527475324} | 0 | will-i-fire-use-only-vanilla-ice-ly | 1380.941722177683 | Will I (@fire) use ONLY Vanilla Ice lyrics for comments from 4:20 pm on April Fool's Day to 6:09pm on 4/20? | 1712099300020 | OIv71xSCjVOdDqqrUVAQ5ecYZHj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.209006110086935 | True | play | NO | public | 1711967754712 | Rob van Winkle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stop ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Collaborate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Listen", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.9594299361529404} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712099300020 | 160 | fire | 1712099300020 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffire%2FRMFpoFR7O3.120161113225352000gdajkkg0?alt=media&token=073f6a33-590f-43e3-a3d4-62792473cc51 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711957021944 | 0 | [{"name": "Absurd", "slug": "absurd", "groupId": "5ad26b14-f699-482b-a66a-cdabd459aa16", "createdTime": 1711967754874}, {"name": "Hip-Hop/Rap", "slug": "hiphoprap", "groupId": "qojZj1hvMmMET5Eo3QgW", "createdTime": 1711967754878}, {"name": "Busking", "slug": "busking", "groupId": "db7fe113-a2c0-49ac-a331-51cddc3178e8",... | ["absurd", "hiphoprap", "busking", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "white-rappers"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712099290057 | 0 | OIv71xSCjVOdDqqrUVAQ5ecYZHj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EcVhYak5d5MyvgNrhIJU | who-will-become-indias-next-prime-m | 3733.557282631922 | Who will become India's next Prime Minister in 2024 general elections? | 1717525740000 | rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711968760175 | Creative Culture | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.486275277167285, "platformFee": 0.328821490505338, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | CreativeCulture | 1717520766602 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJSJ_pIy5WVRd9SnIJGdeNMFY3agzeS8wm-mtjqZ-3=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "9cbe4b96c9d1", "prob": 0.0010724415709747479, "text": "Rahul Gandhi", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.2082542654261168, "userId": "rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1125.4305278622828, "textFts": "'gandhi':2 'rahul':1", "contractId": "EcVhYak5d5MyvgNrhIJU", "createdTime": 1711968760175, "prob... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711450883436 | 0 | [{"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", "createdTime": 1711968760402}, {"name": "🇮🇳 India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1711968760407}, {"name": "2024 Indian general election", "slug": "2024-indian-general-election", "groupId": "c48e28ad-fa... | ["elections", "india", "2024-indian-general-election", "elections-world"] | 0.25 | 1717520763206 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.507364190772263 | TBPauoexmiSeIWVNSvfq | {"NO": 565.7566241406303, "YES": 1455.7106187297336} | 0.2858498478855567 | will-ethereum-token-ether-cross-500 | 1821.7775282923565 | Will Ethereum token - Ether cross $5000 by the end of 2024? | 1735669740000 | rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.937991085360515 | False | basic | public | 1711969063084 | Creative Culture | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.029711842529964838, "month": -0.24411988773665294} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.183866100790592, "platformFee": 7.013699485355936, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CreativeCulture | 1719997945590 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJSJ_pIy5WVRd9SnIJGdeNMFY3agzeS8wm-mtjqZ-3=s96-c | 22 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711450883436 | 0 | [{"name": "Ethereum", "slug": "ethereum", "groupId": "IYG60kkC6dQPZ9078ePu", "createdTime": 1711969063231}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1711969063237}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime":... | ["ethereum", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719997942458 | 1714564441849 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9nRM6h7EDGsvrjjtXO5G | is-it-ok-to-trade-on-your-own-marke | 0 | Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving? | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1711969284318 | ~deleted~ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | _deleted_ | 1712093517167 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672001526837 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1711969284782}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | 1712093516674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1278282032654808 | 611AyoN2musY6ayK4Iuy | {"NO": 132, "YES": 56.06100249815796} | 0.2565576698874712 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-2-whe-1174f61f865a | 12 | Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market? | 1714546860000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711969302285 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero. Additional info: This market is reliability... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Charlie | 1711983382601 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 1711983379226 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10973886568884582 | aAwoJrJ3aH55PKpBYjXA | {"NO": 808.1153837380361, "YES": 3292.2199428074764} | 0 | will-reform-uk-stand-side-for-the-c | 3024.134319300664 | Will Reform UK stand aside for the Conservative Party at the next general election? | 1718699330331 | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.358231478490183 | True | basic | NO | public | 1711969418787 | NoitUK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2019, the then Brexit Party initially threatened to run against the Conservative Party. Following policy changes that BXP found favourable, they subsequently stood down candidates in marginal Conservative seats to avoid splitting the vote. ", "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.051763368278508685} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.264870691022115, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718699330331 | 1000 | NoitUK | 1718699338047 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680597255123 | 0 | [{"name": "Reform UK", "slug": "reform-uk", "groupId": "bd4e6880-3ac1-42fc-a0fd-9d7867bde8e2", "createdTime": 1711969418931}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1711969418936}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "g... | ["reform-uk", "uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk-conservative-party"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718699320305 | 1718699336999 | 0.05 | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ev8E80gMSwTJgvujrZt7 | -how-many-things-will-happen-in-apr | 4255.984345528985 | 🐣 How many things will happen in April 2024? | 1714600740000 | tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1711969990221 | Noya | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many sub-markets will have resolved YES at the end of April in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "chris", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.364546741748823, "platformFee": 12.364546741748823, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714632120715 | 715 | NoyaV | 1714600740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c | 12 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "3fbc8f723c94", "prob": 0.99, "text": "30+", "index": 0, "poolNo": 775.5225424341379, "userId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.86165623259302, "textFts": "'30':1", "contractId": "ev8E80gMSwTJgvujrZt7", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2", "createdTim... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1679587233389 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711969990478}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1711969990479}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301... | ["sports-default", "metamarkets", "internet", "technology-default", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "death-markets", "world-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1714543605176 | 1714599631558 | 0.03 | tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
et9qHrp4Qc9LwCmZKmpq | who-will-be-the-first-to-100k-follo | 5212.1275197274435 | Who will be the first to 100k followers? | 1711991983354 | RFNFE2gr2HZPtWKg6tChy3GkQGw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | b5ccf3d5c051 | public | 1711970122582 | vorps | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The super bowl of Twitter/ X is finally here! Place your bets to see who will become master of the tpotverse. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711991983354 | 240 | vorps | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4DrvutmF6qo9QE-yCo0Kv0ZtXzjS9XUy747-uiCiq=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "54bb05fbe409", "prob": 0.04393845896799607, "text": "@BasedBeffJezos", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.174063737741989, "userId": "RFNFE2gr2HZPtWKg6tChy3GkQGw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 264.8967308162805, "textFts": "'basedbeffjezo':1", "contractId": "et9qHrp4Qc9LwCmZKmpq", "resolverId": "RFN... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710531921461 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711970122787}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711970122790}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": ... | ["sports-default", "technology-default", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1711991695611 | {"b5ccf3d5c051": 100} | RFNFE2gr2HZPtWKg6tChy3GkQGw2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6471443268591648 | lcsDUOjhWDjnfZl7bWEZ | {"NO": 1980.6926225629877, "YES": 71.73082121923602} | 1 | will-viking-cruises-be-trading-publ | 1748.1180293093812 | Will Viking Cruises be trading publicly by June 30, 2024? | 1714529942185 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1711970248470 | Ken Michaels | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Viking Cruises announced in late February that the company filed a confidential draft registration with the US SEC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.app... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.9987583120322454, "platformFee": 3.9987583120322454, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714529942185 | 245 | kenmichaels | 1714529942185 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644799318130 | 0 | [{"name": "IPOs 2024", "slug": "ipos-2024", "groupId": "f3566d1b-c580-44c9-867c-44e7563729b4", "createdTime": 1711970248630}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1711970248632}] | ["ipos-2024", "stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714392616825 | 1714529920256 | 0.98 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0905026707077579 | f3HVz8AvrcxngPMX2EN1 | {"NO": 916.7753960269447, "YES": 1359.8459806692936} | 0.06286858577631382 | ai-starts-crypto-trading-seize-the | 603.0256219514844 | AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉 | 2027519940000 | SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.327860577965861 | False | basic | public | 1711970284915 | Quadrifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, all crypto chains (coins) and tokens must go to zero. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market cap of every single project needs to be listed as worth 0.00 USD on Coingecko - ",... | BINARY | {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quadrifold | 1712475378671 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692341243629 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Doom", "slug": "ai-doom", "groupId": "UIAZgEDhRk62eZLK9SXB", "createdTime": 1711970285057}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1711970285063}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 17119702... | ["ai-doom", "bitcoin", "agi", "ai-regulation", "ethereum", "ai", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "ai-safety", "ai-impacts"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712475375442 | 1712024108693 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2698536168126287 | GfK1nlnLkaa9RIbxMowH | {"NO": 1031.928814861027, "YES": 881.6120925699936} | 0.3019703859565779 | will-the-story-of-i-have-been-a-goo | 522.7674431582882 | Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.5679380461123 | False | basic | public | 1711970531763 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10484183537220379, "platformFee": 0.10484183537220379, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1715396746270 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711970533651}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715396742562 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5011725775516038 | SRGvoxNF3Gus4Lj4eozb | {"NO": 135.1807572208118, "YES": 144.89724637083515} | 0.4838252204505942 | do-you-think-religion-is-necessary | 15 | Do you think religion is necessary? | 1714588140000 | rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711970762072 | Creative Culture | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.885780586188048e-16, "week": 3.885780586188048e-16, "month": 3.885780586188048e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17042443363005846, "platformFee": 0.17042443363005846, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | CreativeCulture | 1714577342211 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJSJ_pIy5WVRd9SnIJGdeNMFY3agzeS8wm-mtjqZ-3=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711450883436 | 0 | [{"name": "Christianity", "slug": "christianity", "groupId": "ba9d5230-b177-47fa-a024-d5aca860cdbf", "createdTime": 1711970762232}, {"name": "hinduism", "slug": "hinduism", "groupId": "ede08c05-b513-49ac-b007-1b4dc3da53d5", "createdTime": 1711970762225}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiK... | ["christianity", "hinduism", "religion", "islam", "buddhism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714548497781 | 1714577340451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.43019261801285263 | 7esMxJpb2W5vVqoNLYXh | {"NO": 278.941666854147, "YES": 5358.179889347349} | 0 | will-the-us-election-happen-before | 14551.574861668108 | Will the US election happen before the UK elections | 1720140768952 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.175999859111055 | True | basic | NO | public | 1711971968535 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Done by the last date someone can vote ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03781713322119214, "month": -0.03781713322119214} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.569414745976886, "platformFee": 32.073944427195876, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720140768952 | 1000 | JamesF | 1720140768952 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1711971968676}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711971968679}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "... | ["uk", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "uk-politics", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717380763495 | 1720128332104 | 0.04 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5098842656366561 | 1TM9oxzBXnEf632ddan9 | {"NO": 220.55684893953097, "YES": 207.72325442445208} | 0 | will-the-dong-rise-tomorrow | 61 | Will the dong rise tomorrow? | 1712095140000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4995678074856693 | True | play | NO | public | 1711973267906 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the Vietnamese dong closes higher relative to the US dollar on April 2, 2024 than on April 1, 2024. Exchange rate will be checked on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5248522554109202} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712145631023 | 260 | MartyDettmann | 1712095140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711973268085}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1711973268091}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 171... | ["world-default", "fun", "economics-default", "vietnam", "forex"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712088330707 | 1711999251394 | 0.52 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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7gUcZhPKAvjNp10yCnn3 | what-will-be-true-of-touhou-20 | 579 | What will be true of Touhou 20? | 1830315540000 | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711975857738 | Alyssa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Touhou 20 is coming at some point. We currently don't know all that much about it. Let's speculate!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Addition-of-new-options is open to all, and I will do my bes... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.003767029328926, "platformFee": 0.5073244087959285, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 485 | Tulip | 1718043659424 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_S1biLuCg60Z2_YY6AP1AB96QvecyAjv40j_2EHQ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "135d1b143e31", "prob": 0.42338446094428817, "text": "At least five playable characters", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.98152965156422, "userId": "Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 88.49961017731329, "textFts": "'charact':5 'five':3 'least':2 'playabl':4", "contractId": "7gUcZhPKAvjNp10yCnn... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663717371895 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1711975857991}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711975858014}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vT... | ["video-games", "entertainment", "gaming", "touhou"] | 0.25 | 1718043403270 | 1718043658078 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8888031153936294 | GxrXj01h6RnZD9yQxtj3 | {"NO": 2481.4061610867325, "YES": 147.91076393800648} | 1 | will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ma-21d8bd2f0059 | 3369.5022017415617 | Will Joe Biden still be alive on May 1st, 2024? | 1714543140000 | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1711976115421 | SEE | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As usual, I will not bet on my own market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.06757049036787163, "platformFee": 0.06757049036787163, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714563808007 | 260 | SEE | 1714543140000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1693854479194 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711976115563}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1711976115558}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDA... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "death-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713828752840 | 0.99 | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8969302664784513 | Q0ETmpL52T65weGAlySP | {"NO": 1777.7563972430055, "YES": 195.4955342970232} | 1 | will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-on-b1488926f6e | 3232.681811294957 | Will Donald Trump still be alive on May 1st, 2024? | 1714543140000 | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1711976181536 | SEE | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Donald Trump's survival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As usual, I will not bet on my own market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6807703062844407, "platformFee": 0.6807703062844407, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714563786293 | 300 | SEE | 1714543140000 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1693854479194 | 0 | [{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1711976181677}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711976181691}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "... | ["death-markets", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714261404709 | 0.99 | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5649220337532115 | eeJBJiRBMqubqoXv33EU | {"NO": 249.63237453459655, "YES": 78.33295189372284} | 1 | will-i-eat-at-most-1700-calories-ea-8712cb55a4fa | 116.19131671036409 | Will I eat at most 1700 Calories each day for the rest of this week? (04-01 through 04-06) | 1712465940000 | yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.427043246417534 | True | play | YES | public | 1711976706914 | phaen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Back at it after most of a week of overshooting my target.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment aid so I'll only buy and hold Yes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.194632824742051} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712467908573 | 140 | phaen | 1712465940000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644215050730 | 0 | [{"name": "Weight", "slug": "weight", "groupId": "gsUwohSpI9GiN4gtck12", "createdTime": 1711976707082}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1711976707092}] | ["weight", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712465176683 | 1712467887495 | 0.81 | yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4138695136441921 | WtEloJKdx5zhqdlZHdtq | {"NO": 135.48082779149954, "YES": 7817.09402196467} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-a-new-ath-before-t-3313caee1e81 | 20659.4005530693 | Will bitcoin hit a new ATH before the end of the April 2024? | 1714532340000 | EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1711976832247 | Gugra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6CYreMXi1f.png?alt=media&token=4a0852c0-c870-463d-83f2-8824bf8ff69d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "last ATH on ", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.263393356290415, "platformFee": 42.263393356290415, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714694698163 | 820 | Gugra | 1714532340000 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690905249039 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1711976832407}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1711976832410}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXC... | ["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin-maxi", "technology-default", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714531310052 | 1714559972868 | 0.01 | EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | SXfhaMK0ExurlcOzZLht | {"NO": 50, "YES": 200} | 0.2 | is-magpie-arrow-a-vessel-for-titan | 100 | Is Magpie Arrow a vessel for TITAN? | 1767225540000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711977052202 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Magpie Arrow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://avas-demon.fandom.com/wiki/Magpie_Arrow", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decorati... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1711977326488 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "Ava's Demon", "slug": "avas-demon", "groupId": "4b5b9c33-2002-40e4-9a33-fddad673a32c", "createdTime": 1711977077643}] | ["avas-demon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711977322517 |
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