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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
613XXFAszRbExC0Y1xlD | when-will-manifold-run-out-of-money | 1142.253501240237 | When will Manifold run out of money? | 1767221940000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712153533535 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of April 3rd, 2024, the company running Manifold has about ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1 year of runway", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/d47f36e878584cf2b6643e8376da6808?v=e5c3... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.493218595379624, "platformFee": 0.2468368640504635, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lukres | 1718909478587 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 18 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a33222cf9096", "prob": 0.06149394264501002, "text": "In 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.25956433900127, "userId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 446.55257390540777, "textFts": "'2024':2", "contractId": "613XXFAszRbExC0Y1xlD", "createdTime": 1712153533536, "probChanges": {"day": -0... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712153533965}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712153533961}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 1718909475420 | 1712252585874 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6007751160987637 | ZdaqWDHpZTRmi5sYoltu | {"NO": 263.6693750847811, "YES": 133.6315359492747} | 1 | will-i-do-3h-or-more-work-on-graphs | 90.19131671036409 | Will I do 3h or more work on Graphsheets by the end of this week | 1712609940000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8841575572830322 | True | play | YES | public | 1712153831849 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Graphsheets is my personal project that aims to be like Treesheets except with graphs also, and infinitely zoom able.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've done almost no work on it in the past couple months but have... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.25193750275562465} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712611118162 | 180 | AntonBogun | 1712609940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712559997448 | 0.75 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4509407062625969 | DO3tCbcR3tHeLPnRVWd3 | {"NO": 1057.9767303078165, "YES": 891.4777119616848} | 0.49359100155312574 | will-djt-closer-higher-on-november | 573 | Will $DJT close higher on November 6th 2024 than on November 5th 2024(Election Day)? | 1730987940000 | mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.71580536500708 | False | basic | public | 1712154332975 | Awex | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In a recent episode of “The Journal” the interviewee suggested that some savvy investors are thinking about betting on the price of $DJT as essentially being a bet on the outcome of the election. So here it is!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Awex | 1712895422939 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697288053919 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1712154333254}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712154333255}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime"... | ["donald-trump", "stocks", "economics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-us-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712895419609 | 1712160857910 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | v6yjLg7eBBBHVv6H4Biy | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-ben-nashman-the-tks-thiel-fell | 0 | Will Ben Nashman (the TKS Thiel Fellow) create a sensor for continual lipid (or inflammatory marker) monitoring? | 2713928340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712156668691 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1712156668691 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uExSllgOjLVkxjfZMTGN | nuclear-weapon-detonations-by-2033 | 181 | Nuclear weapon detonations by 2033 | 1988233140000 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712156669912 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Including tests. Including accidental. Thermonuclear explosion counts as 1 nuclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If more than 10, resolves to 10.", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KongoLandwalker | 1718022519811 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7f5993bc5dec", "prob": 0.6256720967366408, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 350.4757039696071, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.68305298568353, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "uExSllgOjLVkxjfZMTGN", "createdTime": 1712156669912, "probChanges": {"day": 6.6... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1712156670274}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1712156670276}, {"name": "Nuclear War", "slug": "nuclear-war", "groupId": "9ce3b170-4a5e-4ade-a930-8c51... | ["nuclear", "russia", "nuclear-war", "nuclear-risk", "north-korea"] | 0.25 | 1713184652254 | 1718022518713 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10593410022477379 | 5tNINiubLYyAJ2NmMfQ2 | {"NO": 795.6083162751162, "YES": 4195.967489572995} | 0.021972749581943892 | will-jk-rowling-be-arrested-in-2024 | 10161.372293691986 | Will J.K. Rowling be arrested in 2024? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.45170410769225 | False | basic | public | 1712157208987 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if J. K. Rowling is arrested, for any reason, before 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -0.014607045549131965, "month": -0.014622030769829129} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.56850637086523, "platformFee": 13.345845183168214, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719850735327 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Harry Potter", "slug": "harry-potter", "groupId": "Xh32CB0FoWKjEKVVGJQI", "createdTime": 1712157209147}, {"name": "Law and Crime", "slug": "law-and-crime", "groupId": "5bfaa7f5-f5b9-445f-9ed0-7a3b7792d1c6", "createdTime": 1712157209150}, {"name": "J.K. Rowling", "slug": "jk-rowling", "groupId": "45d86af0-c92... | ["harry-potter", "law-and-crime", "jk-rowling", "prison-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719850732235 | 1712176731884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44838566625819604 | daULcchB33e5DMH4tDZD | {"NO": 61.5923641482852, "YES": 504.50478518489894} | 0.09027885678915994 | will-kylian-mbappe-win-the-2024-bal | 482.0648518235506 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? | 1735707540000 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712157464402 | PedroA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.0900088776796895, "platformFee": 2.3403541138706743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | pa | 1717282912427 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687393389344 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽️🤫 Football Rumors", "slug": "football-rumors", "groupId": "eHjingXNejUbQTM9MljG", "createdTime": 1712157464553}, {"name": "Ligue 1", "slug": "ligue-1", "groupId": "1e6fa3a8-ba26-479e-8194-0bd7384a7f74", "createdTime": 1712157464571}] | ["football-rumors", "ligue-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717282909253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20120559520082337 | nJb87ZQh1361GKxHjens | {"NO": 344.3590140473218, "YES": 8587.202209755525} | 0 | will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-75000-6b031540e104 | 12879.19255037818 | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000 in April 2024? | 1714622340000 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712157501085 | PedroA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.4935683630948, "platformFee": 13.4935683630948, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714630756700 | 750 | pa | 1714622340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687393389344 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712157501306}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712157501309}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "created... | ["bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714617310827 | 0.01 | cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16856850148589528 | ZYJn2fmPCyCYL8mxfcQJ | {"NO": 929.8430286095298, "YES": 1206.5951021802664} | 0.1351292168797023 | will-some-kind-of-911-but-with-ship | 347.4942303450326 | Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.827753829820352 | False | basic | public | 1712157810519 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.04917296428361611, "platformFee": 0.04917296428361611, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Panfilo | 1713905333149 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695066009476 | 0 | [{"name": "Shipping", "slug": "shipping", "groupId": "SjhcRNwIiOeXXYR48zjO", "createdTime": 1712157810751}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1712157810750}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1712157810... | ["shipping", "wars", "geopolitics", "infrastructure", "terrorism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713905329800 | 1712190161050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RPVo0qTcyZKzDVp7lCuy | number-of-star-ship-launches-by-203 | 46.874999999999964 | Number of Star Ship launches by 2030? | 1925009940000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712157939918 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently 3", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Sss19971997 | 1712172060265 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9b9e2766b853", "prob": 0.05036482925883768, "text": "3-13", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.6239473429473734, "userId": "8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.47485615864378, "textFts": "'-13':2 '3':1", "contractId": "RPVo0qTcyZKzDVp7lCuy", "createdTime": 1712157939918, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712157940481}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712157940477}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 17121579... | ["science-default", "space", "futurism", "spacex"] | 0.25 | 1712166696767 | 1712172053950 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5612040994563842 | eF1SwfRKH7mJNVEqdAqO | {"NO": 279.81924373270766, "YES": 150.71335177545524} | 0.7036655388364841 | will-kraken-stop-providing-monero-t | 177.43148418070504 | Will Kraken stop providing Monero trading in the United States before 2026? | 1767333540000 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712158059095 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this market closes and you are still able to buy ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "sell Monero in the United States on Kraken, this market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | pie | 1712523856598 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712158059263}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1712158059301}] | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-news"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712523853272 | 1712158215203 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1nEXVU6sOXClHAgzEJ7y | add-options-what-will-be-voted-the | 1011.342541863958 | [Add options] What will be voted the funniest out-of-context Manifold comment at the end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712158949643 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As promised in my popularity contest bounty comment", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.778508979839362, "platformFee": 6.07000162020587, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 915 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1719066885026 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ad760201bf57", "prob": 0.17647842955973808, "text": "\"If the banned mushrooms didn't exist, that would make my hallucinations hallucinations\" - Rob van Winkle\nhttps://manifold.markets/Joshua/troll-logic-megamarket-what-things#r24zuesej5k", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.268067939855285, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712158949949}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1712158949947}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "creat... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "fun", "sex-and-love", "manifold-users", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1719066881441 | 1716307580015 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.578929584544935 | UDnARtbOpoSEvgoebaQT | {"NO": 339.62741645899825, "YES": 153.63431461759984} | 0.7524374814647425 | will-a-new-zorklike-game-simulate-r | 220 | Will a new zork-like game simulate @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, and @KatanHya as NPCs by 2030? | 1925009940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712159537681 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | StochasticParrot | 1712786556074 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712786552536 | 1712163414385 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49673118830919144 | IUJl5kCROEoJJCr0AA8C | {"NO": 116.15384615384619, "YES": 124.00000000000001} | 0.4803996925441971 | will-chris-turner-get-a-netflix-spe | 4 | Will Chris Turner get a Netflix special before 2026? | 1767205740000 | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712159758233 | ~deleted~ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hes a very very talented guy and go check him out if you haven't already, he does freestyle raps, he's amazing at it, and he's a good standup comedian too.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | _deleted_ | 1712276198882 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672001526837 | 0 | [{"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1712159766769}, {"name": "Standup", "slug": "standup", "groupId": "bcc3de9b-b928-4898-b312-0f731342302e", "createdTime": 1712159769690}, {"name": "Comedy", "slug": "comedy", "groupId": "5422cc5a-ad91-46f9-... | ["entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "standup", "comedy", "tv", "social-media"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712276195409 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4931654148319752 | 9LUQ9Oqk6uZluzIWcES0 | {"NO": 185.42584688865085, "YES": 120.57578331765306} | 0.5994170044909511 | will-a-directed-energy-weapon-meant | 144.37027424774868 | [CANCEL] Will a Directed Energy weapon made for use on humans be confirmed as existing and used by a country by EOY2025? | 1712161997406 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.023614516281821 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712159800686 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed-energy_weapon", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed-energy_weapon", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2645628887181825} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712161997406 | 200 | strutheo | 1712253995682 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712159800845}, {"name": "News", "slug": "news", "groupId": "586c2ce6-5e77-441a-b7ba-922fd387e3be", "createdTime": 1712159800857}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVe... | ["science-default", "news", "technology-default", "military", "weapons", "wars", "energy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712161584129 | 1712253994998 | 0.6 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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OoyEH2YFrRWSAJoOZkFw | what-continent-will-true-detective-87431ce3e691 | 549.0509491617969 | What continent will True Detective Season 5 be set on? | 1767247140000 | krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712160512999 | Antilegomena | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on the primary location(s) of the story; a scene depicting side characters in another country, for example, will not be counted. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current speculation suggests... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 440 | Antilegomena | 1713019761694 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqYqKpMovqXNHRPSqqh1iMaE9b45mie30Fubmm=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0ebf03ab7857", "prob": 0.6783880195724844, "text": "North America", "index": 0, "poolNo": 216.57834338555617, "userId": "krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.67603189371597, "textFts": "'america':2 'north':1", "contractId": "OoyEH2YFrRWSAJoOZkFw", "createdTime": 1712160513000, "probC... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1655181168670 | 0 | [{"name": "True Detective", "slug": "true-detective", "groupId": "6d091e40-2d1c-4dac-9539-bb87fcbd22da", "createdTime": 1712160513375}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1712160513381}] | ["true-detective", "tv"] | 0.25 | 1713019758304 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5674879393101566 | t1vCakqymYsULWhI3YrN | {"NO": 234.21713163670145, "YES": 173.76306791446027} | 0.6388012910738496 | will-someone-play-doom-on-mars-by-t-92055c991589 | 95 | Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2060? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712160623206 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be a human playing the game on a computer/console, can be a remake or sequel", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2... | BINARY | {"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1712263798402 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712160624550}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712160624554}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "cre... | ["gaming", "space", "entertainment", "video-games", "space-colonization", "space-exploration", "futurism", "mars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712263795106 | 1712168357846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5534682784901195 | YXlM7I5MuoOpRQDLt0wT | {"NO": 199.26731993987326, "YES": 198.11080581644688} | 0.5549063712133238 | will-someone-play-doom-on-the-moon | 108.420028098508 | Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2050? | 2556161940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712160728350 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be a human playing the game on a computer/console, can be a remake or sequel", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8104096893864098, "platformFee": 0.8104096893864098, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | strutheo | 1715039798731 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1712160728518}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712160728522}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 171216072... | ["video-games", "gaming", "futurism", "space-colonization", "space", "moon", "entertainment", "space-exploration"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715039795568 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5900116644176938 | p4uTbqs3yeZ4G8D5WHTg | {"NO": 1298.1356909207657, "YES": 810.8930756058189} | 0.6973186388103496 | is-a-state-actor-beind-the-xz-backd | 1074.818726569559 | Is a state actor behind the XZ backdoor? | 1775858340000 | MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.78886212310095 | False | basic | public | 1712160848264 | CodeandSolder | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If concrete evidence does not become available resolves PROB to my opinion at close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently I'd put it around 20-30%, mainly due to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0139211512267019} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3965076962488914, "platformFee": 0.3359202251032717, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CodeandSolder | 1718793144974 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671480541301 | 0 | [{"name": "xz backdoor", "slug": "xz-backdoor", "groupId": "9783564a-abd8-45d8-8581-d002f4196cf2", "createdTime": 1712160848611}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712160848630}, {"name": "Information security", "slug": "information-security", "g... | ["xz-backdoor", "technology-default", "information-security"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718793141799 | 1712632023041 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2640618661124938 | ETnBNJDXKPtYEqFynZtI | {"NO": 928.9148065658048, "YES": 1151.305008038503} | 0.22450614527150958 | will-there-be-a-soccer-game-outside | 225 | Will there be a soccer game outside of earth’s atmosphere by the end of 2040 | 2240629140000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61409745344746 | False | basic | public | 1712160852781 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be a pickup game must have at least 4 people", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9008752172980322, "platformFee": 0.9008752172980322, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1714610555635 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712160853001}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712160853032}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 17121608529... | ["soccer", "sports-default", "space"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714610552391 | 1712230114287 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3590976272012415 | TNGAgXYXrKA2CUbPzBoZ | {"NO": 215.69154744555337, "YES": 264.0781146488972} | 0.3139582588825358 | will-iran-test-fire-a-nuclear-weapo | 203.32642237071568 | Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026? | 1798790340000 | MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712163786568 | Jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | JimAusman | 1712467993597 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669143819202 | 0 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1712163786811}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1712163786815}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 17121... | ["nuclear-risk", "middle-east", "iran"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712467990359 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2655143544314753 | xSV2l8tlzCh7AKP8jfxE | {"NO": 23.459056705913554, "YES": 7064.853616328692} | 0 | will-celtic-beat-rangers-on-sun-apr | 7414.670296321799 | Will Celtic beat Rangers on Sun, Apr 7, 2024? - Scottish Premiership | 1712499717064 | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6201967203771686 | True | play | NO | public | 1712169174770 | DAC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: Scottish Premiership", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔑 Market Resolution:", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00190013515734328} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712499717064 | 260 | DaAdCh | 1712505374949 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704630344002 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712169174936}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712169174956}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 171... | ["soccer", "sports-default", "football"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712499676892 | 1712505374507 | 0 | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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B4oeDIFGcXNGdjE7Fzzf | on-which-continent-will-the-next-po-100ee9bbb5e6 | 715.9669033339511 | On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born? | 6445627140000 | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712170313401 | Bruno | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from South America and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere. The next several Popes have likely already been born. In which continent will the first Pope born afte... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6523140297371293, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BrunoParga | 1719199576552 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | 14 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9c9bec8ce9a0", "prob": 0.18534511950373686, "text": "Africa", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.99503350223661, "userId": "rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 386.7681204337508, "textFts": "'africa':1", "contractId": "B4oeDIFGcXNGdjE7Fzzf", "createdTime": 1712170313402, "probChanges": {"day": 0.... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1693753827614 | 0 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1712170313719}, {"name": "Pope", "slug": "pope", "groupId": "3e80f0bb-ff2f-4646-8b1b-717597b281cf", "createdTime": 1712170313722}, {"name": "Catholicism", "slug": "catholicism", "groupId": "88d33439-71c5-4160-a440-70a78fd10e10",... | ["religion", "pope", "catholicism", "countries", "continents", "pope-francis", "world-news", "culture-default", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 1719199572541 | 1714724920937 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4252553848765622 | BKyTua0svjoTWruj6bT9 | {"NO": 468.898200812647, "YES": 518.7662043434512} | 0.40075902053894574 | will-i-still-think-that-the-buffalo | 182.51279864718134 | Will I still think that the Buffalo Bills trading Stefon Diggs was a huge mistake by the end of next season? | 1739681940000 | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712171080697 | Zac Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a lifelong Bills fan and Stefon Diggs was my favorite player on the team. I thought he was excellent every season we had him and I like how much other teams committed just to cover him down field. I'm of the opinion that trading him to the Texa... | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 492 | ZacParker | 1712597450188 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648110702205 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1712171080911}, {"name": "Buffalo Bills", "slug": "buffalo-bills", "groupId": "61c34475-c574-43fa-af2b-a5b76d439459", "createdTime": 1712171080921}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq"... | ["personal", "buffalo-bills", "football", "nfl"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712597446700 | 1712286270226 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6GXNeaoXJDinLZGEpZwr | how-many-hours-will-my-computer-gra | 2168.093342733724 | How many hours will my 3d computer graphics project take? | 1714936688599 | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 72045c7f6c9a | public | 1712171786785 | Kongo Landwalker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Features the project must have will be revealed by the teacher in parts. What I already know: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Define Vertex, Edge, Face, Poly linked structs/classes. (Each edg... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.93869389084501, "platformFee": 18.93869389084501, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714936688599 | 140 | KongoLandwalker | 1714936688599 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5e64c1fd6a68", "prob": 0.0002027869387861041, "text": "10-14", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.19297696877004, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 951.4312742044701, "textFts": "'-14':2 '10':1", "contractId": "6GXNeaoXJDinLZGEpZwr", "resolverId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "crea... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681038287526 | 0 | [{"name": "Kongo stopwatch", "slug": "kongo-stopwatch", "groupId": "6a6f82dc-4923-4170-985f-c2935ee86244", "createdTime": 1712242154082}] | ["kongo-stopwatch"] | 0.25 | 1714936619585 | 1714936558994 | {"72045c7f6c9a": 100} | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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v6KgXzvp53PfNKxomm48 | who-will-win-in-round-1-of-candidat | 5874.059243289878 | Who will win in Round 1 of Candidates Tournament? | 1712270773147 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712172395389 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option lists a player (with white pieces) and who they are playing against in brackets. Resolves YES if the given player wins the match. Resolves NO if that player draws or loses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712270773147 | 600 | Weezing | 1712298506446 | 0 | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a725d3af75ab", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Fabiano Caruana (vs Hikaru Nakamura)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.729806697210392, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1298.5213869258487, "textFts": "'caruana':2 'fabiano':1 'hikaru':4 'nakamura':5 'vs':3", "contractId": "v6KgXzvp53PfNKxom... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712172395818}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712172395821}, {"name": "Chess candidates 2024", "slug": "chess-candidates-2024", "groupId": "09ea3682-1d3f-4f69-8c... | ["sports-default", "chess", "chess-candidates-2024"] | 0.25 | 1712270753586 | 1712298506013 | 0.01 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6762825813115979 | RJJ2c7Eb2RXe1bXBbwy3 | {"NO": 2230.7914572576606, "YES": 660.75512391923} | 1 | will-polands-team-score-more-than-t | 8521.127729779471 | Will Poland’s team score more than two goals at EURO 2024? | 1719337127496 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.7598761966637 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712173111004 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.19707651562064277} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 146.54416694236966, "platformFee": 9.283634766466328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719337127496 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719337127496 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 41 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1712173111241}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1712173111243}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 171217... | ["euros-2024", "uefa", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "poland", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719337114519 | 1718988965701 | 0.88 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.20511652889447451 | BwJa0bJ6iyQHfKQutlwh | {"NO": 961.8843979720518, "YES": 1034.3066040174724} | 0.19353384357912148 | after-france-will-another-country-m-9645aa723b84 | 889.2131912678185 | After France, will another country make abortion a constitutional right in 2024? | 1735718340000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.695296205356772 | False | basic | public | 1712173572668 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "France", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1235217454/france-abortion-rights-constitution", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:u... | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.10882139986154313, "platformFee": 0.10882139986154313, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Stralor | 1714828546054 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677017053373 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712173572829}, {"name": "Abortion", "slug": "abortion", "groupId": "e1bf3240-d8e5-47ff-b924-09f98846996c", "createdTime": 1712173572834}, {"name": "Reproductive Rights", "slug": "reproductive-rights", "groupId": "d97... | ["us-politics", "abortion", "reproductive-rights", "france", "politics-default", "europe", "feminism"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714828542671 | 1712249584147 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
uh2rF00ZaCAG8cRrrnsN | who-will-win-the-manifest-merch-des-2e56430eb54b | 2491.6763098550196 | Who will win the Manifest Merch Design Contest? | 1713596340000 | z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | e9d06b9c8790 | public | 1712173612977 | Rachel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(reposting this because accidentally made the other one not linked)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifest is running a design contest for our merch this year!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.948293926781921, "platformFee": 4.948293926781921, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714083826018 | 1040 | rachel | 1714083952954 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c | 30 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cdfd864ef73b", "prob": 0.015083008802867143, "text": "No winner / Manifest in-house design", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.390355940972805, "userId": "z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1004.986688329348, "textFts": "'design':7 'hous':6 'in-hous':4 'manifest':3 'winner':2", "contractId": "u... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1660878189294 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1712173613178}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1712173613190}] | ["manifest-2024", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1713486353013 | 1714083952192 | {"e9d06b9c8790": 100} | z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5045752897425249 | CVGA7DkvIX82jCQNji5u | {"NO": 155.2380952380952, "YES": 126.23489431038924} | 0.5560428459531572 | will-ukraine-legalize-recreational-efa4bbd6575f | 25 | Will Ukraine legalize recreational cannabis by the end of 2040? | 2240629140000 | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712174612251 | Benjamin Ikuta | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | benjaminIkuta | 1712187790870 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666832885921 | 0 | [{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1712174612403}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1712174612401}, {"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj... | ["drugs", "cannabis", "drug-policy", "ukraine", "marijuana"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712187787636 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4916012216499963 | h4aDGaxj181uUCPUawaO | {"NO": 78.72787348595148, "YES": 1320.2481174068246} | 0 | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-7286d1774cb9 | 3098.4536770847626 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher Apr 4 than Apr 3? | 1712259000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.743260308812624 | True | play | NO | public | 1712176180111 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05451737915117398} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712272477052 | 420 | KeenenW | 1712259000000 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712176180307}, {"name": "NVDA", "slug": "nvda", "groupId": "99248d02-41fc-4ebd-8751-2de53a1a711e", "createdTime": 1712176180321}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 17121... | ["stocks", "nvda", "ai-stocks", "nasdaq", "nvidia", "tech-stocks", "finance", "gpu"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712258202608 | 0.05 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6100382461590749 | wywXfWMZMQJIu53U1tSr | {"NO": 161.43950162444725, "YES": 592.3471538539939} | 0 | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-6fac32524f04 | 2739.661292627239 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 4 than Apr 3? | 1712259000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.157585463185705 | True | play | NO | public | 1712176225196 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29891090670450815} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712272503641 | 380 | KeenenW | 1712259000000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1712176225449}, {"name": "AAPL", "slug": "aapl", "groupId": "2b9a9be2-80c3-4e15-860a-55fbe48b31f5", "createdTime": 1712176225448}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1712176... | ["apple", "aapl", "ai-stocks", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "nasdaq"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712258524366 | 0.3 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4033962158793822 | x5zcyTfMilXmmfxVSbDq | {"NO": 125.23469564801599, "YES": 899.015532262993} | 0 | will-reddit-nyse-rddt-close-higher-7ecfffc3a3e3 | 1496.7728519254156 | Will Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) close higher Apr 4 than Apr 3? | 1712259000000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5687796892493426 | True | play | NO | public | 1712176291308 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08608166816746028} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712272555629 | 300 | KeenenW | 1712259000000 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "NASDAQ", "slug": "nasdaq", "groupId": "d3aaa6d9-84fa-42e5-9053-690f91a51220", "createdTime": 1712176291486}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1712176291497}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime... | ["nasdaq", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "nyse", "rddt", "finance", "reddit"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712258536931 | 0.09 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5959130020637746 | 5RYvcPTm4WLCJxeEGGi9 | {"NO": 631.777473781276, "YES": 1310.8766616178164} | 0.4154573765874594 | will-russia-mobilize-at-least-100k-7b10d4ccb93b | 3327.87288316008 | Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024? | 1735718340000 | KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.67810583155303 | False | basic | public | 1712176997286 | nsokolsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2024-01-01 and 2024-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the Internationa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.16622614782878675} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.45671184778483, "platformFee": 22.37762625792252, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | nsokolsky | 1718611615466 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652590573616 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1712176997452}] | ["ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718611612309 | 1712177075345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gBDEnhcQFOPhtvwHcDvl | would-you-have-sex-with-a-human | 0 | Would you have sex with a human? | 3ovGrYGPkpWNszlR2rIBdknDFtp1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712177027552 | Unown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Unown | 1712859342162 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704958183293 | 0 | [{"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1712177027740}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 1712177045007}, {"name": "Public Opinion", "slug": "public-opinion", "groupId": "Lt7NilEBMhPGdsSsqGF1", "createdTime"... | ["sex-and-love", "sex", "public-opinion", "love"] | 0.25 | 1712859340912 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2653208416351019 | ZpR7JOK5u5QHbLctJvwH | {"NO": 105.98041195010637, "YES": 3764.6338120933415} | 0 | will-i-be-promoted-to-masters-leagu-053ce0ae9829 | 3523.191316710364 | Will I be promoted to Masters league at the end of this month? (April 2024) | 1714611292990 | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712177130858 | Arcmage7000 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for whether or not I'll promote this season. Planning to be roughly as active on here as I've been in previous months, though I've been pivoting to a bit of a risk-off strategy lately, which may affect my returns.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.3551873809546295, "platformFee": 5.3551873809546295, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714611292990 | 320 | Arcmage7000 | 1714611346680 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700594381266 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1712177131062}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712177131073}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2"... | ["personal-goals", "manifold-6748e065087e", "personal", "manifold-leagues"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714611271973 | 1714611345020 | 0.01 | IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28647386957342336 | SfhhyqLZj8pesZfGzJtA | {"NO": 165.27864320127838, "YES": 637.2218385792224} | 0.09431453300598087 | by-the-end-of-2024-kanye-will-be-ho | 447.9333912559235 | By the end of 2024, Kanye will be hospitalized due to an overdose | 1735700340000 | iEW4Ujzm6geG18FaSRyKh1vfW8z2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712177347123 | kabuki Jones | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | kabukiJones | 1712652873740 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocITF4HUvVK8Z0aUQ7jegs8eY4u5bPzodsxE_qG_u3DQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712074411159 | 0 | [{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1712177347391}, {"name": "Kanye", "slug": "kanye", "groupId": "LIVuozNRWEB0iKRb4omD", "createdTime": 1712177347392}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": ... | ["drugs", "kanye", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "death-markets", "hiphoprap"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712551749068 | 1712652873203 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8775225054322472 | kXHpkUnbHwLL2LvJBLAi | {"NO": 1763.5608613602074, "YES": 872.133745801561} | 0.935434008520292 | will-4chan-exist-in-2026 | 1067.7822289711457 | Will 4chan exist in 2026? | 1767340740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.127812187028555 | False | basic | public | 1712177514433 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "VFSMiRLXlv5PYZvxcYA8", "label": "/singer/will-4chan-exist-in-2028"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria (provisional):", "type... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.023345544305948762, "platformFee": 0.023345544305948762, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | singer | 1713832320933 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1712177514635}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712177514613}] | ["internet", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713832317223 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7998221495963961 | VFSMiRLXlv5PYZvxcYA8 | {"NO": 1361.7297478937742, "YES": 895.3096054601924} | 0.8586988225963916 | will-4chan-exist-in-2028 | 644.2302464529143 | Will 4chan exist in 2028? | 1830412740000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.747547002372798 | False | basic | public | 1712177625789 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kXHpkUnbHwLL2LvJBLAi", "label": "/singer/will-4chan-exist-in-2026"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria (provisional):", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.015736411522290994} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.674019982733097, "platformFee": 0.33268677882135717, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | singer | 1718855587567 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712177625935}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1712177625979}] | ["culture-default", "internet"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718855584522 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8964863946523257 | heobMjCJxrPhSSRsUzpV | {"NO": 2338.3199213574067, "YES": 116.3347238086458} | 1 | will-this-question-get-have-more-th | 2579.1063093475004 | Will this question get have more than 20 trades AND more than 5 unique traders by the end of the day, Friday, April 5? | 1712250152916 | 5dLEFgPffiPrNxZ1shxAbQTOKeE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.7539599634832514 | True | play | YES | public | 1712178187667 | EA Parker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a simple question: IF there are 20+ trades with 5+ unique traders (not including bots), the question resolves YES. If not, it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0057117798475543324} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712250152916 | 220 | EAParker | 1712250177904 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKa-av0NDjLFNINwXPsU-J6gfQi7QvX2cy4bFOImf9uhw=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709174949498 | 0 | [{"name": "Free Mana", "slug": "free-mana", "groupId": "6Kc95X62qKLbgghiIhu0", "createdTime": 1712178187859}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1712178187878}, {"name": "Grab Bag", "slug": "grab-bag", "groupId": "0f4ca3f0-7edb-41e6-bd83-2cea37941577", "create... | ["free-mana", "free-money", "grab-bag", "experimental"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712233974931 | 1712250177190 | 0.99 | 5dLEFgPffiPrNxZ1shxAbQTOKeE3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AIaMM8O9fhSvsVTlgZhq | what-company-will-achieve-agi-first | 0 | What company will achieve AGI first | 1712179152555 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712178328849 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the company that made the AI that resolved manifolds main AGI market", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712179152555 | 125 | JamesF | 1712179283211 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "48559916ccee", "prob": 0.2, "text": "Open AI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.625, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.5, "textFts": "'ai':2 'open':1", "contractId": "AIaMM8O9fhSvsVTlgZhq", "resolverId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "createdTime": 1712178328849, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | True | 0 | [{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1712178329150}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712178329153}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1... | ["agi", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1712179282436 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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II0rq2FS1LPQRnUpG50q | ill-give-100-mana-to-a-random-user | 0 | I’ll give 100 mana to a random user who reposts my 🏟️ Major Sporting Events market before Tuesday | 1712673432828 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712178531293 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dglid/-major-sporting-events#em60g9vgcd", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dglid/-major-sporting-events#em60g9vgcd", "class": "break-an... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712673432828 | dglid | 1712673345342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["jvLeBxoOnIzsJbvO1uKD"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "⛹️ March Madness 2024", "slug": "march-madness-2024", "groupId": "9a003f6b-9fd1-46ab-871d-2904953c4d5b", "createdTime": 1712178531478}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712178531468}, {"name": "🏀 College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketb... | ["march-madness-2024", "sports-default", "college-basketball", "nba", "sports-betting", "basketball", "march-madness", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 1712673344364 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It1fUzB9ahIY108p8J4s | who-will-be-the-2024-national-leagu | 956.4963991599548 | Who will be the 2024 National League MVP? | 1732402740000 | 0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712182124408 | Sindre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when the NL MVP is officially announced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please add candidates as they become contenders.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.09074422227076, "platformFee": 0.08789004456335417, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 335 | Sindre | 1720012509572 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI7S8dzmYSGKjH1PuSnjsb_GGjLpRI4xSBiy5Nm67glFoQ=s96-c | 11 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "548bf8f58b39", "prob": 0.051533883018047316, "text": "Mookie Betts", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.435995285071144, "userId": "0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 339.30912705734585, "textFts": "'bett':2 'mooki':1", "contractId": "It1fUzB9ahIY108p8J4s", "createdTime": 1712182124408, "probCha... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697226133927 | 0 | [{"name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "slug": "los-angeles-dodgers", "groupId": "cc2b199e-4a04-4524-ba01-84a44730a7a1", "createdTime": 1712182124790}, {"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "createdTime": 1712182124788}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQA... | ["los-angeles-dodgers", "mlb", "sports-default", "shohei-ohtani", "baseball"] | 0.25 | 1720012326000 | 1720012507766 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DhdK3oVM9Q2P4Ua18iBm | which-ai-model-will-first-pass-the | 412.3334930548778 | Which AI model will first pass the Longbets version of the Turing test? | 2209093140000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712182534126 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the official name of the model used to officially declare the Turing Test solved, according to Longbets, or an equivalent test if Longbets no longer exists. If ambiguous, may resolve to mod consensus or N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3282432718266478, "platformFee": 0.28217892783547815, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719072627278 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a33ec6017008", "prob": 0.07650263044366726, "text": "GPT-5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.052049137473134, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 411.05747114951066, "textFts": "'-5':2 'gpt':1", "contractId": "DhdK3oVM9Q2P4Ua18iBm", "createdTime": 1712182534126, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712182534876}, {"name": "Longbets.org", "slug": "longbetsorg", "groupId": "4dPQUUNk2xIFAvsQ4cvq", "createdTime": 1712182534899}, {"name": "Turing Test", "slug": "turing-test", "groupId": "ca70f69b-f141-487a-801c-a6eea3e27fc4", "createdT... | ["ai", "longbetsorg", "turing-test", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1719072624084 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11901914924357299 | lJmWUQqEida8xB9C152K | {"NO": 930.4225045665859, "YES": 1212.5042799342368} | 0.09393092651014782 | will-it-be-confirmed-that-havana-sy | 815.6482992859967 | Will it be confirmed that Havana Syndrome was caused by directed energy weapons by the end of 2024? | 1735685940000 | aPcty3Z58iXxN49P7Iq3oPflqX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.083036301500488 | False | basic | public | 1712183005891 | Narek Vardanjan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on this article ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://theins.ru/en/politics/270425", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://theins.ru/en/politics/270425", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio... | BINARY | {"day": 1.249000902703301e-16, "week": 1.249000902703301e-16, "month": 1.249000902703301e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NarekVardanjan | 1712609793238 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiiIs9hDvShTldM4DVZYF90APieW1_SbWuAIh8dcA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1648551899169 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712183006079}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712183006091}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYg... | ["us-politics", "technology-default", "politics-default", "russia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712609790007 | 1712262659000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FURRXNozRiBfqZAZjAyO | when-will-apple-release-an-iphone-w | 573.2246746599617 | When will Apple release an iPhone with >5x optical zoom? | 1870577940000 | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712184002448 | Oleg Eterevsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve positively when Apple releases a phone with at least one lens having equivalent focal length >= 130 mm (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5x on iPhone 15 Pro Max has equivalent focal length 120 mm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.487253774263646, "platformFee": 1.487253774263646, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OlegEterevsky | 1714499246144 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "384267fc6da9", "prob": 0.32111645870989813, "text": "Before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 84.15165093833643, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 177.90794973246074, "textFts": "'2025':2", "contractId": "FURRXNozRiBfqZAZjAyO", "createdTime": 1712184002448, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703105455482 | 0 | [{"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1712184002811}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1712184002814}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "cre... | ["iphone", "apple", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1714499242899 | False | alphabetical | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GEhnmNl65aidTp720Wna | what-is-the-probability-at-least-on | 0 | What is the probability at least one entity properly referred to as a god exists? | 91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712185112945 | PhilosophyBear | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Interpret the concept in whatever way seems most natural to you, based on whichever conception of god you think is most reasonable.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | PhilosophyBear | 1712185113211 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710984242506 | 0 | [{"name": "hinduism", "slug": "hinduism", "groupId": "ede08c05-b513-49ac-b007-1b4dc3da53d5", "createdTime": 1712185113155}, {"name": "Christianity", "slug": "christianity", "groupId": "ba9d5230-b177-47fa-a024-d5aca860cdbf", "createdTime": 1712185113151}, {"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "gro... | ["hinduism", "christianity", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "atheism", "philosophy", "islam", "god", "religion", "judaism"] | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17141065302493178 | p9FWtHANVSaox7eunGKk | {"NO": 180.77944339348215, "YES": 13624.89844254074} | 0 | -will-crystal-palace-beat-mancheste | 15833.779004920016 | ⚽ Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester City during regular time on Sat, Apr 6, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | 1712413800000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8273877095679527 | True | play | NO | public | 1712185312263 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Crystal Palace vs Manchester City", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 6, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 11:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002737308884576669} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712430797963 | 440 | FranklinBaldo | 1712518990558 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712185312399}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1712185312429}] | ["soccer", "premiere-league"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712410142771 | 1712518990017 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21028283395371733 | AVmTP2GWfaBTEhK2qhYq | {"NO": 68.19271782519647, "YES": 12767.578575206366} | 0 | -will-union-berlin-beat-bayer-lever | 12580 | ⚽ Will Union Berlin beat Bayer Leverkusen during regular time on Sat, Apr 6, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪 | 1712421000000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.843588913495613 | True | play | NO | public | 1712185318369 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 6, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0014201835797551818} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712430800397 | 280 | FranklinBaldo | 1712518994270 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712185318557}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1712185318575}] | ["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712417549086 | 1712518993688 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18706981862778574 | PUgyGhkGXDkMjzW0gtNu | {"NO": 99.67863921232272, "YES": 6866.696048577337} | 0 | -will-sc-freiburg-beat-rb-leipzig-d | 8473.303951422662 | ⚽ Will SC Freiburg beat RB Leipzig during regular time on Sat, Apr 6, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪 | 1712421000000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1298898979825287 | True | play | NO | public | 1712185322073 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 6, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0033293268509117045} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712430802091 | 320 | FranklinBaldo | 1712518994896 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712185322256}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1712185322258}] | ["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712417446579 | 1712518994230 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7584205734762287 | ftbbgjcVwn4hL0BvjN6P | {"NO": 9761.216025016423, "YES": 42.35355266948963} | 1 | -will-fsv-mainz-05-beat-sv-darmstad | 10753.117330268216 | ⚽ Will FSV Mainz 05 beat SV Darmstadt 98 during regular time on Sat, Apr 6, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪 | 1712421000000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.53428337077568 | True | play | YES | public | 1712185324221 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, April 6, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 C... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0013801806767164138} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712430803809 | 260 | FranklinBaldo | 1712518995500 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1712185324391}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712185324384}] | ["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712417301494 | 1712518994804 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 |
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