CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

Do6b7zaUa2jl1tpIbcXm

when-in-april-will-there-be-a-manif

22208.99982094225

When in April will there be a Manifold poker night?

1714525078625

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1712105761754

Gabrielle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To count, there must be at least four people playing and they have to play for real, you can't just cheat it for the market :)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't have to occur before m...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 14.958969597266698, "platformFee": 14.958969597266698, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714525078625

2970

Gabrielle

1714525078625

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c

14

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e04476329fca", "prob": 0.5, "text": "April 1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'1':2 'april':1", "contractId": "Do6b7zaUa2jl1tpIbcXm", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "createdTime": 1712105761755,...

0.3333333333333333

1641356493109

0

[{"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1712105762982}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712105763037}, {"name": "Manifold Plays Poker", "slug": "manifold-plays-poker", "groupId": "d99b0489-3fd6-4329-8fb...

["poker", "manifold-users", "manifold-plays-poker", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

False

1714442635067

1713478792304

0.76

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

False

old

ctddkfYQVWcYMXT3gCPu

looking-to-better-understand-differ

0

Looking to better understand differential geometry. Recommend me a good text

1717787022733

siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1712105819500

AMB

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is only my second question on MM. I first learned about MM during a random conversation with strangers at a public park. It's a fascinating concept, just trying to explore by asking this question.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BOUNTIED_QUESTION

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717787022733

Eyeamb

1717787022733

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c

0

["PxU3omRy"]

0.3333333333333333

1711991197371

0

[{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1712105819629}]

["mathematics"]

0.25

1712148414025

siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2

533

0.23674071097273094

rGojbTj8wcUL9TL8luCS

{"NO": 805.4488142262585, "YES": 1350.4351116082453}

0

will-amanabot-receive-deposits-from

770.5138248418593

Will AMANABOT receive deposits from >40 unique manifold accounts by April 8th 2024?

1712645940000

2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2

cpmm-1

0

0.5618569186015157

True

play

NO

public

1712105828565

Anton Makiievskyi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMANABOT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AMANABOT", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15611612494335703}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712678859206

927.5

mckiev

1712645940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…974-e110b0dd226d

17

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1670333970933

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712105828723}, {"name": "Privacy", "slug": "privacy", "groupId": "1f1f4a4c-8f62-4b4b-b06c-efc72c5c8d3b", "createdTime": 1712105828719}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUH...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "privacy", "crypto-speculation"]

0.25

0.5

1712635648072

0.16

2yBGlqecngd9lGMIFXnaJfE86nn2

936Y6RTe4myrEj6xzXyn

looking-to-better-understand-the-pr

0

Looking to better understand the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem by Andrew Wiles. Recommend me a good resource

siDe1pSNf6bx7WW9Rz0UPX1ATmX2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1712105903116

AMB

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BOUNTIED_QUESTION

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Eyeamb

1712159896879

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzjEIt702c3NqKq16rE4-8Xo5T_nPqisx2_D11pnxg=s96-c

0

250

[]

0.3333333333333333

1711991197371

0

[{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1712105903257}]

["mathematics"]

0.25

1712159896244

250

0.10760116305548861

SbiSsxeAT68Wzlg91dY1

{"NO": 751.1218741673852, "YES": 6930.555633411783}

0

will-another-manifold-team-member-a

6447.749738497581

Will another Manifold team member announce they’re leaving by end of May?

1717225140000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

NO

public

1712106439457

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically, James, Stephen, David, Sinclair, Ian, Inga, or Marshall.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012899172236954243}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.578010929572086, "platformFee": 3.9742127862750114, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717297167008

1000

Conflux

1717225140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

16

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1640740518271

0

[{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712106439623}]

["manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1717129134340

1717274265484

0.01

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

bsd6OYmn7HjhXDO6rkNY

when-will-a-major-new-policy-on-pre

634.525341580839

When will a major new policy on Prediction market be released by CFTC?

1735707540000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712107136173

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/12/us-cftcs-behnam-says-agency-writing-new-policy-on-prediction-market...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1314709025230054, "platformFee": 1.1314709025230054, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

520

AmmonLam

1713882039735

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "93d52dcb8196", "prob": 0.342868527573011, "text": "Before the end of April 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.94766766874355, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.14766766874355, "textFts": "'2024':6 'april':5 'end':3", "contractId": "bsd6OYmn7HjhXDO6rkNY", "createdTime": 1712...

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Prediction market", "slug": "prediction-market", "groupId": "60e3c3b2-6ad3-4dda-ad84-17e36de7ca7b", "createdTime": 1712107136426}, {"name": "Prediction Markets General Discussion", "slug": "prediction-markets-general-discussi", "groupId": "14d12bcd-c86e-41eb-afa5-7d5def811b14", "createdTime": 1712107136431},...

["prediction-market", "prediction-markets-general-discussi", "predictit"]

0.25

1713882036224

1712107971113

False

old

0.35819273076484565

W7v3B1D2ZR6X1sdIK4sG

{"NO": 49.96069026375352, "YES": 650}

0

will-arizona-hb-2586-age-verificati

510

Will Arizona HB 2586 (Age Verification for Harmful Website Content) be signed into law?

1712795697298

vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2

cpmm-1

0

3.1839270069443373

True

play

NO

public

1712107175522

Marnix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HB 2586 would force websites with \"content harmful to minors\" to add age verification in place or face lawsuits. It's already passed the state senate and is very likely to pass the republican-held state house. Will Gov. Katie Hobbs sign it into l...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07303441122719036}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712795697298

140

Marnix

1712795703597

0

https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1697603196159

0

[{"name": "Arizona", "slug": "arizona", "groupId": "31009d8b-f5f3-43b2-be1f-4e408fde0577", "createdTime": 1712107175671}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712107175668}, {"name": "US State Government", "slug": "us-state-government", "groupId": "v8YHy...

["arizona", "us-politics", "us-state-government", "politics-default", "pornography", "culture-war"]

0.25

0.5

1712795651546

1712795703091

0.04

vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2

TaDz0yuyM0zKbQ0alMmQ

how-much-will-ai-startups-raise-in

91.87241282829955

How much will AI startups raise in 2024 as a ratio of 2023's total of ~50 billion USD

1736945940000

YDBf91CxCwcFYGR05xghoKCwjg03

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712107242639

RichardK

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Crunchbase reports* that \"Generative AI and AI-related startups raised nearly $50 billion in 2023\". When Crunchbase releases a similar article about 2024, what will the dollar amount be for \"Generative AI and AI-related startups\" raised in 2024...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 0.34458108765820666, "platformFee": 0.34458108765820666, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

223.75

RichardK

1713882980348

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7d-559df8e05caf

4

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "e59f6432b80d", "prob": 0.004217284025883061, "text": "0-0.1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6812625420665874, "userId": "YDBf91CxCwcFYGR05xghoKCwjg03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 160.85932563872052, "textFts": "'-0.1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "TaDz0yuyM0zKbQ0alMmQ", "createdTime": 1712107242639, "probChanges": {"da...

0.3333333333333333

1658538462961

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712107243011}, {"name": "Venture Capital", "slug": "venture-capital", "groupId": "faNUnphw6Eoq7OJBRJds", "createdTime": 1712107243013}, {"name": "AI Investing", "slug": "ai-investing", "groupId": "7db2c1f2-0988-4a02-b8bb-962e458a2f35", ...

["ai", "venture-capital", "ai-investing", "ai-startups", "technology-default"]

0.25

1713882976111

True

A0DCL7REerKAOAQcVxYN

is-betting-on-prediction-market-alm

0

Is betting on prediction market almost the same as gambling?

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1712108127462

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

AmmonLam

1712108127628

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1712108127628}]

["gambling"]

0.25

False

43Hvd1ZIbk3C3DCkswb0

is-betting-on-prediction-markets-mo

0

Is betting on prediction markets more like investing in the stock market or gambling?

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1712108287256

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

AmmonLam

1712262245745

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

24

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1712108287466}]

["gambling"]

0.25

False

1712262245275

0.4373226754439187

FKN3d7Pin5Dec3wQF5xQ

{"NO": 197.56187472346113, "YES": 248.86526150985173}

0.38156878803822597

will-manifold-become-wikipedian-tha

67

Will manifold become wikipedian, that is, characterized by skepticism and resistance towards new creations

1735718340000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712108390036

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How will we know?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "T...

BINARY

{"day": 3.885780586188048e-16, "week": 3.885780586188048e-16, "month": 3.885780586188048e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Ernie

1712627343159

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712108390216}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712108390234}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1712627339191

5Zd8UST9qkj9PrgX8CHc

when-will-bitcoin-drop-below-56789

47785.25842741648

When will bitcoin drop below $56789? (which day?)

1735621140000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712108859279

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/", "class"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 59.71461824203928, "platformFee": 56.36812514315135, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

4815

AmmonLam

1720142980222

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

20

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "7ea9dc01ad96", "prob": 0, "text": "Before the end of April 3th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7373396974072721, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 507.1252644008104, "textFts": "'2024':7 '3th':6 'april':5 'end':3", "contractId": "5Zd8UST9qkj9PrgX8CHc", "resolution": "NO", "...

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712108859658}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712108859714}]

["bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi"]

0.25

1720142977114

1714634279735

False

old

0.36403513807440174

kY8BMCipExjJlcnSD1ZC

{"NO": 999.2938313810814, "YES": 945.3009054234519}

0.3769891912698687

will-an-ai-successfully-defend-or-p

408.5011392008398

Will an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030

1893473940000

nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2

cpmm-1

0

9.63963817908068

False

basic

public

1712109017529

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As far as I can tell this was the most recent attempt was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.npr.org/2023/01/25/1151435033/a-robot-was-scheduled-to-argue-in-court-then-came-the-jail-threats#:~:text=argue%20in%20court.-,Real%20lawyers%20shut%...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.25313038404407395, "platformFee": 0.25313038404407395, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JamesF

1715756891484

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1701462146149

0

[{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1712109017834}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712109017831}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "creat...

["ai-impacts", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"]

0.25

0.5

1715756887931

1712175542621

cPm8Zayi19YAmCkZu0mR

when-will-apple-break-180-which-day

60270.14463692807

When will Apple break $180? (which day?)

1780459140000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712110860878

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 107.026648909284, "platformFee": 107.026648909284, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

6620

AmmonLam

1717729986042

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

15

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e92e3965747a", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Before the end of March 14th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.339465940371053, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.28219618694801, "textFts": "'14th':6 '2024':7 'end':3 'march':5", "contractId": "cPm8Zayi19YAmCkZu0mR", "resolution": "...

1

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712110861235}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712110861303}]

["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"]

0.25

1714739998419

1717390237127

False

old

0.16242412710779508

5uonBgDfVNx9Prp5334n

{"NO": 786.1802747127904, "YES": 1987.3010831175557}

0.071249819421821

will-nebraska-use-winnertakeall-for

4857.970334119549

Will Nebraska use winner-take-all for the 2024 presidential election?

1730872740000

0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2

cpmm-1

0

10.004937219662356

False

basic

public

1712112439162

Magnus

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See story ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4570808-nebraska-governor-calls-for-legislature-to-reinstate-winner-take-all-electoral-system/amp/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:und...

BINARY

{"day": 9.71445146547012e-17, "week": 9.71445146547012e-17, "month": 9.71445146547012e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.591480233419181, "platformFee": 2.591480233419181, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

thepurplebull

1713882510410

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1700605001274

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712112439324}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712112439322}, {"name": "Nebraska", "slug": "nebraska", "grou...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "nebraska", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1713882507282

1712776722551

0.12425375787602819

oRZ0GG8e4Vl0rMTFc0um

{"NO": 105.37807409689304, "YES": 284.0763687182967}

0.050000000000000086

will-a-selection-of-randomly-select

201.7544282595283

Will "A Selection of Randomly Selected SAE Features" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712112751680

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1712125363764

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712112751823}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1712125360600

TFqMVOLxpSsmLxaTmr4h

who-will-win-round-7-of-the-f1crl-2

142

Who will win Round 7 of the F1CRL 2024 (Winter) season?

1712192400000

gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

59698ffca480

public

1712113114508

Jeff

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track is Japan. Race takes place April 3, 2024. Will be resolved based on results posted to f1crl.net", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712335358739

370

legotechnicw15

1713987436514

0

https://firebasestorage.…0bf-351c0e8da04b

4

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "5ba1e097e46d", "prob": 0.4984633136997202, "text": "ThugHughes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 111.08207061944734, "userId": "gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 111.76696875110983, "textFts": "'thughugh':1", "contractId": "TFqMVOLxpSsmLxaTmr4h", "resolverId": "gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2", "c...

1

0.3333333333333333

1709439725812

0

[{"name": "F1 Champions Racing League", "slug": "f1-champions-racing-league", "groupId": "c24f0e7f-4822-43fa-83cf-02d46e49a38b", "createdTime": 1713987436514}]

["f1-champions-racing-league"]

0.25

1712191641292

{"59698ffca480": 100}

gS1EDXGWSdYZHRFuilC7GtQkaii2

True

jnlTUeN30fXRnTxYZrnK

live-what-will-happen-at-tonights-c-8dcae08fb560

12835.96282967512

🔴LIVE: What will happen at tonight's Coolfold poker night [ADD RESPONSES]

1712125507089

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1712113778505

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712125507089

1635

strutheo

1712125507089

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

20

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "32a5d4d6d54e", "prob": 0.9890452249440022, "text": "anyone gets 4 of a kind all night", "index": 0, "poolNo": 317.5452506649385, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3.5171665596300667, "textFts": "'4':3 'anyon':1 'get':2 'kind':6 'night':8", "contractId": "jnlTUeN30fXRnTxYZrn...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712113778690}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712113778697}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "create...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "poker", "coolfold", "live-betting", "livestreaming", "manifold-tv", "youtube"]

0.25

1712125492587

1712114600754

0.61

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

False

0.2701911120601452

t3xBbNtCVbiNu5uf5OMX

{"NO": 897.3958128525335, "YES": 1254.7679545873573}

0.20934765256401786

will-a-cloned-human-baby-be-born-be

897.3438941376596

Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030

1893473940000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

9.624162876455197

False

basic

public

1712114457710

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by December 31, 2029, any scientist, group, or institution announces the birth of a cloned human baby, and that birth is recognized as legit by the scientific community, that question will be answered with \"Yes\".", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.0001782652962222797}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0244466775317174, "platformFee": 1.0099979307181113, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Bayesian

1719072346168

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

32

0

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "genetics", "slug": "genetics", "groupId": "wGDyA41hlaaizAFlryFh", "createdTime": 1712114457908}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712114457939}, {"name": "Transhumanism", "slug": "transhumanism", "groupId": "HXBqBB65NqspMjMfiX30", "cr...

["genetics", "technology-default", "transhumanism"]

0.25

0.5

1719072343096

1712177584478

0.03334829512506613

JVkxrjcslyeVGEFBlgZy

{"NO": 939.3224514177839, "YES": 724.1386629047702}

0.04283354810398934

will-a-galactic-federation-reveal-i-f5d887cb35b4

2223.197176189255

Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity before 2030?

1893560340000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712114875596

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any kind of Galactic Federation (managed by living beings that were not born on planet Earth) reveals itself to humanity before 2030, this market will be resolved as \"Yes\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "con...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.005459167684062564, "month": 0.025505116100884847}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.214571325514716, "platformFee": 0.31109393878573816, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Bayesian

1720044814027

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

17

2

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "extraterrestrial life", "slug": "extraterrestrial-life", "groupId": "5883ea76-0cc9-401d-b138-426e3f048e76", "createdTime": 1712114875743}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1712114875746}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC...

["extraterrestrial-life", "fun", "space"]

0.25

0.5

1720044810908

1712593344923

0.5799928253119396

7aRolAlPTon4A9cED2bg

{"NO": 300, "YES": 144.41275089436306}

0.7415136896693676

will-a-candidate-running-for-office

100

Will a candidate running for office in the United States be charged with a crime? Other than Trump or Biden.

1731398340000

GF3DBSNCSFXYPFlgxfU8VbKGXbZ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712115249415

Martell Holdings

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

MartellHoldings

1712316803568

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfLwOgBxUCOXMA2MI6gBctLNP7pWBiZbtjktQyQ__R=s96-c

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1711852520361

0

[{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1712115249646}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1712115249642}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpN...

["trump-indictments", "magaland", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1712316800328

1712167929727

vjRLLNtQvmyZFC6Q2Ymr

squid-game-season-2-prob-bets

93

Squid game season 2 - Prob bets

1735707540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712115680160

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Squid Game season 2 will likely come out at some point in 2024. What will happen?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.043816018555503475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

185

Bayesian

1719072405844

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "40c001c1ee05", "prob": 0.8287671232876711, "text": "Detective Hwang Jun-ho is part of season 2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.99999999999999, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.495867768595042, "textFts": "'2':10 'detect':1 'ho':5 'hwang':2 'jun':4 'jun-ho':3 'part':7 'season...

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh0GMczfxM1jBSdl", "createdTime": 1712115680368}]

["netflix"]

0.25

1719072402780

1715370531605

False

0.9755111835916306

vYKEUDgwgUogy5aI3DY2

{"NO": 1200.2047829526846, "YES": 411.2675591393248}

1

will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-a440cca7733d

8610.900475680308

Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 3?

1712203907631

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

cpmm-1

0

8.479857601546088

True

play

YES

public

1712116295891

Jimmy Carter Death Markets

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.008535966385672111}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712203907631

500

JCDM

1712203907631

0

https://firebasestorage.…31d-01d8ae732bec

24

0

0.3333333333333333

1703455433441

0

[{"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1712116296080}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1712116296085}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupI...

["jimmy-carter-daily", "death-markets", "jimmy-carter", "public-figures", "longevity", "entertainment"]

0.25

0.5

1712203492853

1712139267922

0.99

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

boEXLJDOsmUVKBJPaAaN

on-which-continent-will-the-next-po

2029.238289974308

On which continent will the next Pope be born?

1956632340000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712116370434

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current pope (Francis) is from Argentina, making him the first pope to be from South America and the first pope from the Southern Hemisphere. In which continent will the pope after pope Francis be born?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.028201960133571, "platformFee": 1.41222289462474, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1355

Bayesian

1719072442215

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

56

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "96f814db2c2b", "prob": 0.200611981726337, "text": "Africa", "index": 0, "poolNo": 166.19966738926047, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 662.2636475087511, "textFts": "'africa':1", "contractId": "boEXLJDOsmUVKBJPaAaN", "createdTime": 1712116370434, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ...

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Catholicism", "slug": "catholicism", "groupId": "88d33439-71c5-4160-a440-70a78fd10e10", "createdTime": 1712116370650}, {"name": "World News", "slug": "world-news", "groupId": "93afbd44-8c00-4386-80f5-e2af2449059c", "createdTime": 1712116370645}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "e...

["catholicism", "world-news", "culture-default", "countries", "pope", "religion", "world-default", "pope-francis", "continents"]

0.25

1719072439048

1712170088836

True

0.27554475523950495

1pwVhYUAzWhTKndFySby

{"NO": 351.76445821766174, "YES": 3623.611275624446}

0

will-manifold-require-phone-verific

5295.959238193215

Will Manifold require phone verification for all new users in one month?

1714805940000

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

cpmm-1

0

10.419305884340837

True

play

NO

public

1712116656622

jackson polack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.97737351137745, "platformFee": 10.97737351137745, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715088942032

720

jacksonpolack

1714805940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c

38

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1670234252125

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712116656766}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712116656765}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1714805499546

1715088740078

0.04

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

0.31000629126496154

bUyK4mI4gpVuLDmusqOh

{"NO": 99.45606483605154, "YES": 689.0249837922886}

0.060902136864084085

will-apple-announce-a-foldable-tabl

1707.3618224629179

Will Apple announce a foldable tablet by Dec 31, 2025?

1767193200000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712116694779

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Apple has announced a foldable tablet / ipad before 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution sources: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00011998519548379188}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.256570896469889, "platformFee": 1.3566228483235983, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

Bayesian

1719072455195

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "📱 iPad", "slug": "-ipad", "groupId": "5074a188-81b6-4084-8a4f-c319578a02f3", "createdTime": 1712116694917}, {"name": "Folding Ideas", "slug": "folding-ideas", "groupId": "89c31945-f85c-485a-8a71-ec0b2fb1f124", "createdTime": 1712116694923}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSd...

["-ipad", "folding-ideas", "apple"]

0.25

0.5

1719072452116

0.23576302219113757

Xy6r5L4Xbafecb6LWsks

{"NO": 148.9274515841172, "YES": 1047.4667624927588}

0.04201838203209482

will-apple-announce-a-foldable-phon-65c4daa455fe

2088.5303031005737

Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2025?

1767193200000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712116790585

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Apple has announced a foldable phone before 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution sources: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -5.01887733254866e-05}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0029344066674162872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

Bayesian

1719072463980

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1712116790737}, {"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1712116790736}, {"name": "Smartphones", "slug": "smartphones", "groupId": "5b102142-6eae-474e-9e37-810cea2b92e4"...

["apple", "iphone", "smartphones", "folding-ideas"]

0.25

0.5

1719072460916

1712156776448

0.2974702626092122

X7NdEyweKnvAfLjRlHB7

{"NO": 1011.6513258439063, "YES": 908.1614946149209}

0.32050403307544295

will-artificial-blood-be-used-to-tr

723.7937489078415

Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2027?

1830315540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

9.577531227933019

False

basic

public

1712117051172

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by December 31st, 2027, artificial blood is used to treat a patient, in a way that is safe and effective, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.0022897861919073392}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6875172664121465, "platformFee": 0.9509559710911274, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Bayesian

1719083533662

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

20

0

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712117051368}]

["science-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719083530532

mrvw005lTR48pTTwJnnf

in-what-months-will-joe-biden-and-x

296.1266822487369

In what months will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak directly over the phone or in person during 2024?

1735707540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712117135808

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

445

BTE

1712149398766

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "5b8bdef0430d", "prob": 0.969235201843967, "text": "April", "index": 0, "poolNo": 180.32258064516128, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.723675518562569, "textFts": "'april':1", "contractId": "mrvw005lTR48pTTwJnnf", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLz...

0.3333333333333333

1645484592545

0

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712117136051}, {"name": "World Leaders", "slug": "world-leaders", "groupId": "91d037d6-d6a7-48fe-b0b2-625cab587c79", "createdTime": 1712117136054}, {"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-...

["the-life-of-biden", "world-leaders", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"]

0.25

1712149395513

1712148255612

False

hDmtHIJRtB1rrH1eGTc0

20242025-acc-mens-basketball-confer

116

2024-2025 ACC Men's Basketball Conference Win%

1741669140000

Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712118029012

AnAnonymousSource

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option will resolve to the percentage of games won in ACC play by the corresponding team.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

710

AnAnonymousSource

1712142150012

0

https://firebasestorage.…0e6-b3b377e77da8

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "011005f0df2d", "prob": 0.7866165926937521, "text": "Duke", "index": 0, "poolNo": 108.00000000000001, "userId": "Pz0pin44RWh4Mh2FrEUWX1hxD0M2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.296875000000007, "textFts": "'duke':1", "contractId": "hDmtHIJRtB1rrH1eGTc0", "createdTime": 1712118029012, "probChanges": {"day": -1.11...

0.3333333333333333

1711946691323

0

[{"name": "ACC", "slug": "acc", "groupId": "fd88ff6f-22cd-4b94-ac6b-79e9af2bc16f", "createdTime": 1712118029504}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712118029505}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "created...

["acc", "sports-default", "basketball", "college-basketball"]

0.25

1712142143247

False

OE2aZUGnxqqYbpBPaGcb

how-many-people-will-die-as-a-resul-f0fdfe4466d7

11168.553587966231

How many people will die as a result of the Taiwan earthquake?

1712842139329

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

b4987edcb519

public

1712118422662

jackson polack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712842139329

585

jacksonpolack

1712842139329

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c

19

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "f1d7d9541f3e", "prob": 8.986356176368936e-05, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3622604928750661, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4030.865589430191, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "OE2aZUGnxqqYbpBPaGcb", "resolverId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "createdTime": 1...

0.3333333333333333

1670234252125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712118837798}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712118873844}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB",...

["politics-default", "world-default", "death-markets"]

0.25

1712842130111

1712461492342

{"b4987edcb519": 100}

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

True

0.07640958433014709

Iv6XnqIAup5VdMRImWLr

{"NO": 281.6784341467137, "YES": 102476.12789899475}

0

will-the-taiwan-earthquake-halt-chi

103885

Will the Taiwan earthquake halt chip production at a TSMC facility for a month or more?

1712842066658

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

cpmm-1

0

0.654563304026988

True

play

NO

public

1712118669482

jackson polack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that I don't know how TSMC factories work, so resolution will be best effort based on publicly available information.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012644053421696642}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712842066658

500

jacksonpolack

1712842066658

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c

22

0

0.3333333333333333

1670234252125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712118853977}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712118858541}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVe...

["politics-default", "world-default", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1712842052479

1712841676354

0

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

0ckjEirMOU40JrD51A1b

who-will-win-the-2024-lamar-hunt-us

1210

Who will win the 2024 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup?

1727326740000

d0UUxM8cr2hpMtH7Pv8VRz6x0Xa2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712118843827

TapiocaMan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6355884060524166, "platformFee": 0.8790739124067934, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

245

Tapiocaman

1716415058966

0

https://firebasestorage.…5b5-a043228c7e03

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "9a5969123d79", "prob": 0.16567657038769049, "text": "Atlanta United FC", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.299808176979653, "userId": "d0UUxM8cr2hpMtH7Pv8VRz6x0Xa2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 97.19106395911811, "textFts": "'atlanta':1 'fc':3 'unit':2", "contractId": "0ckjEirMOU40JrD51A1b", "createdTime": 17121188438...

0.3333333333333333

1696781427525

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1712118844054}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712118844064}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 171...

["football", "sports-default", "soccer", "mls"]

0.25

1716415055409

True

KUKduw1mcyDu5Xj8JetR

when-will-a-chase-sapphire-card-nex

0

When will a Chase Sapphire credit card next get a publically available elevated welcome offer?

1714710842334

9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

95c49863c65e

public

1712119408213

Quroe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES to the first month where at least one credit card in the Chase Sapphire line of credit cards (like the Preferred or Reserve) gets a publically available, non-targeted elevated welcome offer for greater than 60,000 Chase Ulti...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714710842334

350

Quroe

1714710842334

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8edf1372fe84", "prob": 0.07142857142857142, "text": "April 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.461538461538462, "userId": "9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 175, "textFts": "'2024':2 'april':1", "contractId": "KUKduw1mcyDu5Xj8JetR", "resolverId": "9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2", "createdTi...

0.3333333333333333

1705720408182

0

[{"name": "Credit Cards", "slug": "credit-cards", "groupId": "b89ed727-6d5f-4a2a-b600-aa77c5e5f831", "createdTime": 1712119408500}]

["credit-cards"]

0.25

{"95c49863c65e": 100}

9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2

True

IJRolkUsTDK15I8XIKkv

could-jesus-microwave-a-burrito-so

0

Could Jesus microwave a burrito so hot he himself couldn't eat it

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1712119697247

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

AmmonLam

1718111279735

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

29

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

0.25

1718111278315

bAPiA6nEWtuDPqXJAldE

will-i-be-higher-on-top-traders-or

183.4588158186546

Will I, @HenriThunberg, be higher on Top traders or Top creators EOY 2024?

1735718340000

XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712121917658

Henri Thunberg

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am currently #119 on Top traders, and #123 on Top creators, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on the leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:u...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6900721085951684, "platformFee": 0.6900721085951684, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

HenriThunberg

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b

4

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "70809a58cd4a", "prob": 0.8040928346033493, "text": "Top traders", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 195.86372358363155, "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.71974732274593, "textFts": "'top':1 'trader':2", "contractId": "bAPiA6nEWtuDPqXJAldE", "createdTime": 1712121...

0.3333333333333333

1665991918794

0

[{"name": "Keeping Score", "slug": "keeping-score", "groupId": "cS4talIozSPfQxcbcHtK", "createdTime": 1712121918068}, {"name": "top creators", "slug": "top-creators", "groupId": "NYNgrdB68SdNeZ1qhFsn", "createdTime": 1712121918082}]

["keeping-score", "top-creators"]

0.25

1715892326366

1712124012785

True

JtbLS1TIMzvzn9x7tnHa

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the

10

Which NBA team will win between the #1 seed and #8 seed in the East?

1712122600380

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1712122380504

Jake

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712122600380

120

JakeFromHackmud

1720053161621

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxSNkRcn-69I0OmybNoIdbl6FkpH_tu9PH4CoVS=s96-c

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "70c643189dd4", "prob": 0.5475113122171946, "text": "#1 seed", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75.00000000000001, "userId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.98347107438018, "textFts": "'1':1 'seed':2", "contractId": "JtbLS1TIMzvzn9x7tnHa", "resolverId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd...

0.3333333333333333

1649270177701

True

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712122380733}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712122380738}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "create...

["nba-playoffs", "nba", "sports-default", "basketball", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.25

1712122461444

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

True

e0MjnU1zcdFKNmeFS8MQ

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-67d79ffbe4cb

10

Which NBA team will win between the #1 seed and #8 seed in the West?

1712122614711

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1712122382118

Jake

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712122614711

120

JakeFromHackmud

1720053161621

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxSNkRcn-69I0OmybNoIdbl6FkpH_tu9PH4CoVS=s96-c

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ae5651569fc9", "prob": 0.5475113122171945, "text": "#1 seed", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75, "userId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.983471074380176, "textFts": "'1':1 'seed':2", "contractId": "e0MjnU1zcdFKNmeFS8MQ", "resolverId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63",...

0.3333333333333333

1649270177701

True

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712122382369}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712122382370}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcI...

["20232024-nba-season", "basketball", "nba", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "culture-default"]

0.25

1712122464633

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

True

7gPRZjWVLq65tMdbnAnH

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-de65f34830e8

10

Which NBA team will win between the #2 seed and #7 seed in the East?

1712122591319

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1712122383611

Jake

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712122591319

120

JakeFromHackmud

1720053161621

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxSNkRcn-69I0OmybNoIdbl6FkpH_tu9PH4CoVS=s96-c

1

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "d882e33a3253", "prob": 0.5475113122171946, "text": "#2 seed", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75.00000000000001, "userId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 61.98347107438017, "textFts": "'2':1 'seed':2", "contractId": "7gPRZjWVLq65tMdbnAnH", "resolverId": "IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd...

0.3333333333333333

1649270177701

True

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712122383859}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712122383863}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-...

["sports-default", "basketball", "20232024-nba-season", "culture-default", "nba-playoffs", "nba"]

0.25

1712122469528

IuzRJGQmsuX8fWLd5P7pMKh1Ze63

True

0.7416914792996349

A4dRco1SZFQPbnZglTlM

{"NO": 3119.685643931561, "YES": 91.26586972819915}

0.9899141952388851

will-shogun-episode-8-the-abyss-of

2924.314356068439

Will Shogun Episode 8 ∙ " The Abyss of Life" ∙ have a 8.8 or better iMDB rating?

1713074400000

wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712122647970

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Episode Airs 4/9/2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve with the iMDB rating listed on 4/14/2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ww...

BINARY

{"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

280

cloontia

1713071831060

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFYn6-3gJv7Zxvjj_BIY7UaZkXTWjYrn1xpD0KOjnlA4g=s96-c

11

0

13

0.3333333333333333

1696860314359

0

[{"name": "Hulu", "slug": "hulu", "groupId": "3aadf432-71ec-4ec1-a598-cbb9df46ed75", "createdTime": 1712122648116}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1712122648129}, {"name": "🇯🇵 Japan", "slug": "japan", "groupId": "H5HOzbMpcIAwGLGICGAQ", "createdTime": 1712122648134}, {"n...

["hulu", "tv", "japan", "entertainment", "shogun-48d1578c348e"]

0.25

0.5

1713071827758

1712810713872

FwR2Li0PUNVKVM1R6M7s

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-26f8abc02aef

37932.77987169602

Which NBA team will win the series between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat in the East?

1714614486239

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

3a6b06e0c59d

public

1712122789600

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 107.82107127916969, "platformFee": 107.82107127916969, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714614486239

520

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

24

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "3a6b06e0c59d", "prob": 0.9995898287815153, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11304.969853893861, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4.638875993323381, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "FwR2Li0PUNVKVM1R6M7s", "resolverId": "B...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712122789880}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712122789879}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMD...

["nba", "20232024-nba-season", "basketball", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "culture-default"]

0.25

1714613451777

1713576785941

{"3a6b06e0c59d": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

j9mWPOWhADtG57bcSLKS

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-f4553d3de104

7730.840858209718

Which NBA team will win the series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New Orleans Pelicans in the West?

1714539161897

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

03248ce669ad

public

1712122791611

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.60617142499859, "platformFee": 12.60617142499859, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714539161897

480

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "03248ce669ad", "prob": 0.9973964904395054, "text": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3431.416609825127, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.957045703843374, "textFts": "'citi':2 'oklahoma':1 'thunder':3", "contractId": "j9mWPOWhADtG57bcSLKS"...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712122791887}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712122791891}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvV...

["nba-playoffs", "culture-default", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season", "basketball", "nba"]

0.25

1714539147433

1714266753780

{"03248ce669ad": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

eb5mT00rcUV4Dpm0w9AK

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-1246b71220be

32305.89848205237

Which NBA team will win the series between the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers in the East?

1714707741648

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

12eba9afe663

public

1712122793927

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 97.17918333068548, "platformFee": 97.17918333068548, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714707741648

540

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

25

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "12eba9afe663", "prob": 0.9977795785435242, "text": "New York Knicks", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7543.361083309244, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.786714384127208, "textFts": "'knick':3 'new':1 'york':2", "contractId": "eb5mT00rcUV4Dpm0w9AK", "resolverI...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712122794177}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712122794184}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4...

["nba", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "basketball", "culture-default"]

0.25

1714707735154

{"12eba9afe663": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

GkQhJ6hr5xIJCC9uLJI6

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-b70bf254ff9d

5709.453012962621

Which NBA team will win the series between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers?

1714451207297

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

9d4da5513416

public

1712122797417

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 20.226994754316724, "platformFee": 20.226994754316724, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714451207297

500

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "9d4da5513416", "prob": 0.9935475909126019, "text": "Denver Nuggets", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3238.145140324134, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.029528248918353, "textFts": "'denver':1 'nugget':2", "contractId": "GkQhJ6hr5xIJCC9uLJI6", "resolverId": "B...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712122797908}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712122797914}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559...

["basketball", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs", "nba", "sports-default"]

0.25

1714451144259

{"9d4da5513416": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

BN9TNJXFdynszjTXnmN7

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-3da34961eb32

15485.287412082753

Which NBA team will win the series between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers?

1714699512419

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

40d2dba93a84

public

1712122804873

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 59.8044606967326, "platformFee": 59.8044606967326, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714699512419

540

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

26

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "a9ec9ae0d656", "prob": 0.0012264980729425516, "text": "Bucks", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.402669628196236, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10914.188595184176, "textFts": "'buck':1", "contractId": "BN9TNJXFdynszjTXnmN7", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRN...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712122805470}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712122805474}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId":...

["20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "basketball", "culture-default", "nba", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1714699507122

{"40d2dba93a84": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

CLX16g9ABs2yXqh2GUuL

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-bb4f0d1ee2cf

28968.358264974813

Which NBA team will win the series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns?

1714364933080

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

6793394502c7

public

1712122810436

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 128.805464394308, "platformFee": 128.805464394308, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714364933080

520

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "6793394502c7", "prob": 0.999721586372424, "text": "Timberwolves", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21775.833843941866, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.064377299266198, "textFts": "'timberwolv':1", "contractId": "CLX16g9ABs2yXqh2GUuL", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzke...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712122810821}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712122810828}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b55...

["sports-default", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1714364929510

1713842696668

{"6793394502c7": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

bVSQp7jVuzKASUdRb5sd

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-13449aa7fbc7

25956.451547606524

Which NBA team will win the series between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks?

1714796796609

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

cb59a9800f7d

public

1712122813804

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 65.24950056167242, "platformFee": 65.24950056167242, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714796796609

520

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

28

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "181a8839f803", "prob": 0.0007786840080633543, "text": "LA Clippers", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.622236599621829, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14913.86291433754, "textFts": "'clipper':2 'la':1", "contractId": "bVSQp7jVuzKASUdRb5sd", "resolverId": "BgCe...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712122814483}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712122814495}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-...

["sports-default", "basketball", "20232024-nba-season", "culture-default", "nba", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1714796787737

{"cb59a9800f7d": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

18p0wapAFm8FRFDF5DDS

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-2c3f59efce1b

25123.74974701348

Which NBA team will win the series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic?

1714939623807

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

3942f80b4125

public

1712122819265

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 101.86053179428613, "platformFee": 101.86053179428613, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714939623807

520

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

43

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "3942f80b4125", "prob": 0.998090424941559, "text": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7979.484083539453, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.266576458786858, "textFts": "'cavali':2 'cleveland':1", "contractId": "18p0wapAFm8FRFDF5DDS", "resolver...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712122819939}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712122819943}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559...

["basketball", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "nba"]

0.25

1714939080266

1713644310939

{"3942f80b4125": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

i1UbhK4e8uxn1atWc9aW

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-a24ab2f08cc0

15472.99288270208

Which NBA team will win the play-in game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat?

1713404747437

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

185ae465921c

public

1712124301999

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 71.77362628639419, "platformFee": 71.77362628639419, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713404747437

640

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

32

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "185ae465921c", "prob": 0.9893501651480157, "text": "Philadelphia 76ers", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4341.555498353783, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.734564451479855, "textFts": "'76ers':2 'philadelphia':1", "contractId": "i1UbhK4e8uxn1atWc9aW", "resolv...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712124302276}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712124302288}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712124...

["sports-default", "culture-default", "nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.25

1713404438489

1713404789936

{"185ae465921c": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

xmRB7nKpxJC9X4SvD2MJ

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-90e633c567da

26701.722740347974

Which NBA team will win the play-in game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Lakers?

1713319782543

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

b820494bc7e4

public

1712124303893

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713319782543

960

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

46

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8d25864c567a", "prob": 0.002289159484657158, "text": "Pelicans", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.16311083009774, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14453.86195333423, "textFts": "'pelican':1", "contractId": "xmRB7nKpxJC9X4SvD2MJ", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpS...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712124304195}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712124304202}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2Nr...

["nba", "20232024-nba-season", "culture-default", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "basketball"]

0.25

1713319748536

1713320009602

{"b820494bc7e4": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

hexapmNFoJXk7xm9Mb4f

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-56a06c8b563e

11917.671550509038

Which NBA team will win the play-in game between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks?

1713413157239

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

f894e5295c42

public

1712124306862

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the play in matchup is set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 87.89187822094149, "platformFee": 87.89187822094149, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713413157239

500

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

25

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "f894e5295c42", "prob": 0.9984109220906426, "text": "Chicago Bulls", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9026.777545139848, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.367083204205791, "textFts": "'bull':2 'chicago':1", "contractId": "hexapmNFoJXk7xm9Mb4f", "resolverId": "BgC...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712124307186}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712124307156}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId":...

["nba-playoffs", "basketball", "20232024-nba-season", "nba", "sports-default", "culture-default"]

0.25

1713412587697

1713413343538

{"f894e5295c42": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

1MAcDaUcdypJHLjqDULL

which-nba-team-will-win-between-the-bb4ca3e56c2b

28295.079979786402

Which NBA team will win the play-in game between the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors?

1713328533107

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

b55ec4c78763

public

1712124309230

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713328533107

860

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

43

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "b55ec4c78763", "prob": 0.9951154047442897, "text": "Sacramento Kings", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9182.37893632903, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.07236484802745, "textFts": "'king':2 'sacramento':1", "contractId": "1MAcDaUcdypJHLjqDULL", "resolverId": ...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712124309511}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712124309515}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "created...

["nba", "basketball", "nba-playoffs", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season", "sports-default"]

0.25

1713328227182

1713328673753

{"b55ec4c78763": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0.17670977838962892

vVY9amwTQLF2JXDcDHqc

{"NO": 891.1627352861191, "YES": 1445.6385935569203}

0.11685253433486772

will-apple-buy-perplexity-by-end-20

904.9360215616026

Will Apple buy perplexity by end 2025?

1767308340000

ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1

cpmm-1

0

9.82674044612037

False

basic

public

1712124733628

Simone Romeo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.009205534137123078, "month": -0.009205534137123078}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2883776685607793, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SimoneRomeo

1719785035644

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsTe1OuSlrF4Bq4iBBPjtQlimBPGxShXSI_8Cz0MehwA=s96-c

27

1

0.3333333333333333

1702703079293

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712124733975}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712124733973}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1712124734...

["ai", "technology-default", "apple", "business"]

0.25

0.5

1719785032558

zTgKX9d85gGyk2AjwC8J

-nba-basketball-1st-half-winner-liv

309330.7797221315

🏀 NBA Basketball Playoffs 1st Half Winner Live (Monday, May 27)

1716785679905

dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1712125749296

ReeMARKable

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time Zone: Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Home Team is listed second.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ties will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 324.35771712509256, "platformFee": 209.3183313273429, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716785679905

15625

ReeMARKable

1717074006745

0

https://firebasestorage.…198-b06ea07e9f66

44

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "9462c25e1d04", "prob": 0.995063797619397, "text": "7:00 PM: Will (POR Trail Blazers) LEAD (CHA Hornets) at Halftime?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1153.2634327113583, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.720981625129565, "textFts": "'00':2 '7':1 'blazer':7 'cha':9 'halftim':12 'ho...

0.3333333333333333

1697544913258

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712125749550}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712125749573}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpc...

["20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "nba", "basketball"]

0.25

1716772231651

1717074004393

0.01

dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1

False

old

0.5000000000000004

FOqJf0iW9qTzO2uGHES0

{"NO": 100.01960588196056, "YES": 99.98039796119197}

0

daily-coinflip-4fb53ae42a08

1979.5695445459041

Daily coinflip

1712289540000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

0.08001066922739858

True

play

NO

public

1712126184939

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 131)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5000980198000384}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712292582754

100

Traveel

1712289540000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

29

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1674441975928

0

[{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1712126185097}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1712126185098}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1712276593148

1712291972492

0.5

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

oT1ACPZBc8FYVJCBe8rK

what-continent-will-true-detective

89

What continent will True Detective Season 5 be set on?

1712160101457

krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1712127654714

Antilegomena

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on the primary location(s) of the story; a scene depicting side characters in another country, for example, will not be counted. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current speculation suggests...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712160101457

400

Antilegomena

1712166777677

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqYqKpMovqXNHRPSqqh1iMaE9b45mie30Fubmm=s96-c

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "bb49b80e0211", "prob": 0.7191011235955054, "text": "North America", "index": 0, "poolNo": 79.99999999999996, "userId": "krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.250000000000007, "textFts": "'america':2 'north':1", "contractId": "oT1ACPZBc8FYVJCBe8rK", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1655181168670

0

[{"name": "True Detective", "slug": "true-detective", "groupId": "6d091e40-2d1c-4dac-9539-bb87fcbd22da", "createdTime": 1712127656926}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1712127656944}]

["true-detective", "tv"]

0.25

1712156219461

1712166776964

0.41

krkfPzxD6RdYGDmmtcFqj1eh6wh2

False

0.5716982658259704

XWGkPhwfLBsAhtnd8VCI

{"NO": 356.97471492053995, "YES": 105.17665053164257}

0.8191807795572645

will-the-blond-titi-monkey-calliceb

189.84399556614815

Will the Blond Titi Monkey (Callicebus barbarabrownae) become extinct in the current century?

4102441140000

OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712127698874

Extinction Risk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Blond Titi Monkey, aka Barbara Brown's Titi Monkey, is a species of titi monkey endemic to northeastern Brazil. It is estimated that less than 250 individuals remain. This market will resolve YES if the Blond Titi Monkey is declared extinct by ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8773741793175842, "platformFee": 0.8773741793175842, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

ExtinctionRisk

1716326476993

0

https://firebasestorage.…120-6ea9153954ca

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1708510781928

0

[{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1712127699158}, {"name": "Zoology", "slug": "zoology", "groupId": "tvzqaAGtUlwMWPfYQLuh", "createdTime": 1712127699164}, {"name": "Extinction Risk", "slug": "extinction-risk", "groupId": "19a4aeaa-d9f9-4cc7-9a85-a7...

["animals", "zoology", "extinction-risk", "biodiversity", "environment-243810591da2"]

0.25

0.5

1716326473728

1712304012391

0.7999657301858898

HvOi4AMe0I90kZauKfO2

{"NO": 1660.9114832861267, "YES": 1182.6420147468905}

0.84886103690203

will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de

2017.0626099418637

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

1735649940000

bJ14wJHYRXhkENIu5MUrGzzVKT82

cpmm-1

0

9.451925307447535

False

basic

public

1712128000335

Jack McPherson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not count if partially completed and finished...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.004913407351008536, "month": 0.01011369808422169}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.371409777461415, "platformFee": 0.5661762130036467, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1312.5

JackMcPherson

1719876302478

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLxfW2Vt_U0PdpCmQB3fpVT8AaKzGMbaQkBGwT7023IH1-9=s96-c

39

1

0.3333333333333333

1707707934129

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712128000486}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1712128000496}, {"name": "Game of Thrones", "slug": "game-of-thrones"...

["entertainment", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "game-of-thrones", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"]

0.25

0.5

1719876298916

fK3TbrYXP12LF27kSCkM

would-you-still-trade-on-my-markets

0

Would you still trade on my markets if I was a worm?🪱

1714798740000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1712128981357

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714798740675

PlasmaBallin

1712205933844

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

38

0

0.3333333333333333

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1712128981496}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712128981497}]

["animals", "manifold-users"]

0.25

1712205932772

["83b89e4ea951"]

0.06977966681927676

jES3mDlJr3yiegOZOXsT

{"NO": 245.5231740054611, "YES": 3802.6102703526954}

0

will-there-be-an-earthquake-in-taiw

6050.273554476464

Will there be an earthquake in Taiwan larger than the April 3rd 8am one within 72 hours?

1712362200000

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

cpmm-1

0

4.594692732286138

True

play

NO

public

1712129244727

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The earthquake at 7.58 a.m is being reported as between 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude on the Richter Scale ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is asking whether there will be a quake larger...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0048200920870802265}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712364327854

360

JoshuaWilkes

1712362200000

0

https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1662006482315

0

[{"name": "Earthquake", "slug": "earthquake", "groupId": "cf835665-726a-458f-8b28-702ab90d4249", "createdTime": 1712129244865}, {"name": "Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1712129244867}]

["earthquake", "taiwan"]

0.25

0.5

1712354749530

0

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

xgrzhzgM3H1PKeFMVswE

which-dutch-politicians-will-be-fou

204.62123524958812

Which Dutch politicians will be found to have received money from Russia based on the Czech tip?

1725227940000

rPuztcJyIDVXKOSVO4LQMJsXYpw2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712129415583

Komi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the [Czech Republic dismantled a \"Russian disinformation network\" at the end of March](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://nos.nl/artikel/2514502-tsjechie-ontmantelt-russisch-desinformatienetwerk-in-aanloop-eu-verkiezingen", "type": "text...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

320

jesyspa

1713347404187

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIUa5lVjyBjJmCTs5rkXrC0W1J57ZmkLSvNn-W8uCqpJKc=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3df8ef7082d8", "prob": 0.58, "text": "Thierry Baudet", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.86114325805886, "userId": "rPuztcJyIDVXKOSVO4LQMJsXYpw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 65.7960002903185, "textFts": "'baudet':2 'thierri':1", "contractId": "xgrzhzgM3H1PKeFMVswE", "createdTime": 1712129415583, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.3333333333333333

1707989193647

0

[{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1712129416125}, {"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1712129416120}]

["russia", "the-netherlands"]

0.25

1713347401027

False

hmjNmKu2ROAZutK0KZeR

which-will-happen-first-a-child-is

474.3625476906731

Which will happen first: a child is born on Mars, or a child flies to Mars?

2533273140000

xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712129917917

themightysalmon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's say a child is a human under 18 years old. How will the first child be delivered to Mars?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If flying, they must be successful - the child must land and sur...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5640860761501912, "platformFee": 0.008462301627488844, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

themightysalmon

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513

24

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "57162fdc3bda", "prob": 0.5991720542528908, "text": "Child born on Mars first", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 816.840697734193, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 546.441671555733, "textFts": "'born':2 'child':1 'first':5 'mar':4", "contractId": "hmjNmKu2ROAZutK0K...

0.3333333333333333

1707978226998

0

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712129918123}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1712129918116}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 171212991...

["space", "mars", "futurism", "space-exploration"]

0.25

1718408345132

True

Gm3taeoprutU6PTpwQdo

which-will-happen-first-a-child-is-1e574dc3ff3c

263

Which will happen first: a child is born on the Moon, or a child flies to the Moon?

2533273140000

xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712130499796

themightysalmon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's say a child is a human under 18 years old. How will the first child be delivered to the Moon?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If flying, they must be successful - the child must land and...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

themightysalmon

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513

10

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8cef71cc33e5", "prob": 0.20215105227674904, "text": "Child born on the Moon first", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 143.09032988102365, "userId": "xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 564.7483297225384, "textFts": "'born':2 'child':1 'first':6 'moon':5", "contractId": "Gm3taeop...

0.3333333333333333

1707978226998

0

[{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1712130499994}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712130499996}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTim...

["futurism", "space", "space-exploration", "science-default"]

0.25

1712279830645

1712167485666

True

0.13004886852696804

tRTreNpg2cxdmRITE7zl

{"NO": 154.58641904159677, "YES": 200.00000000000006}

0.10357758258176639

will-lw-team-is-adjusting-moderatio

239.99999999999991

Will "LW Team is adjusting moderation policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712132294235

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

LessWrong

1712690278727

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712132294410}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1712690275482

0.42178409918454896

GhGf8YgqQ2kK5b5lIy2c

{"NO": 82.56644293666163, "YES": 1004.0725316847619}

0

teun-janssen-candidate-3-on-the-dut

1130.5341362274032

Teun Janssen, candidate #3 on the Dutch Volt list, will be elected to the European Parliament in 2024.

1719784740000

N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1712132709973

Sam Bogerd

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://voltnederland.org/mensen/3-teun-janssen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://voltnederland.org/mensen/3-teun-janssen", "class": "break...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.06704119785243899, "month": -0.23000000000000065}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.037884665132314, "platformFee": 0.22335553588915327, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719795357676

240

SamBogerd

1719784740000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7jLVh87UFbGs1SVyVEC8hHwUqLiyniT_8xSym6vVg=s96-c

11

1

0.3333333333333333

1671533916915

0

[{"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1712132710117}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712132710111}, {"name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "groupId": "i5JOzjrK5ZMHPSkhgzoi", ...

["elections-world", "politics-default", "elections", "nederland", "european-union", "ep2024"]

0.25

0.5

1719776333398

0.06

N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1

0.5165545374459747

5Gn9wFfZ3eH1PS5vqBBz

{"NO": 348.4391617997776, "YES": 117.56912935177161}

1

will-leicester-city-be-automaticall

212.47252692154444

Will Leicester City be automatically promoted from the Championship at the end of the 23/24 season?

1714165313837

ohGy59WwWqPqZP5XDoCD1AJ7K0k2

cpmm-1

0

7.238649573389656

True

play

YES

public

1712133026725

Lewy J

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2400000000000001}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7353775203583462, "platformFee": 0.7353775203583462, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714165313837

200

LewyJ

1714165313837

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKNqm1AB8lQYILop3JJTZgZJhosSA4nAnxTrPWs_GBKRw=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1712080189771

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712133027402}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712133027438}]

["soccer", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1713966412945

0.76

ohGy59WwWqPqZP5XDoCD1AJ7K0k2

0.3605393158734367

GtVbkypYsqfRDmULEX4Y

{"NO": 178.20374833247172, "YES": 288.52760725932006}

0.2582876995559094

will-mark-zuckerberg-compare-anothe

190.48223573868535

Will Mark Zuckerberg compare another tech company CEO with a pop star?

1735649940000

LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712135198626

Enrico Susatyo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: Zuck just said that Jensen is the Taylor Swift of tech. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.threads.net/@stocksandsavings/post/C5ROOw4CBcR/?xmt=AQGzqo6eRG3JRXIKesUi2O9zmJ8...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009627801620024579}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5797262199759208, "platformFee": 0.41043078201839256, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

esusatyo

1718932395746

0

https://firebasestorage.…a98-6f3b503a06f8

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1680581898997

0

[{"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1712135198766}, {"name": "Mark Zuckerberg", "slug": "mark-zuckerberg", "groupId": "TgiBcwgdBUStQtFlpg4w", "createdTime": 1712135198764}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOc...

["taylor-swift", "mark-zuckerberg", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718932392608

Un05s4AWr1dARVv3K2dz

which-nba-team-will-win-the-2nd-rou

1630.9770265562477

Which NBA team will win the 2nd round series between the 1/8 seed and the 4/5 seed in the East?

1715822891276

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

2397f43fb8ab

public

1712137370673

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.405143595477127, "platformFee": 1.405143595477127, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715822891276

160

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "2397f43fb8ab", "prob": 0.9941724927012493, "text": "The winner of 1/8", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1135.0971475970994, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.653560585286641, "textFts": "'1/8':4 'winner':2", "contractId": "Un05s4AWr1dARVv3K2dz", "resolverId": "B...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712137370876}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712137370878}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G...

["nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "culture-default", "nba", "20232024-nba-season", "basketball"]

0.25

1715822867741

1715822878626

{"2397f43fb8ab": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

TvjQZRMp60nBk4Izmj3b

which-nba-team-will-win-the-2nd-rou-4e7898dad0a0

2002.252594549512

Which NBA team will win the 2nd round series between the 1/8 seed and the 4/5 seed in the West?

1716143554835

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

822595adb60f

public

1712137384721

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 5.70384130248272, "platformFee": 5.70384130248272, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716143554835

120

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

5

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "1a8620934d3f", "prob": 0.010317769868379685, "text": "The winner of 1/8", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.563862970379972, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 629.6068458274476, "textFts": "'1/8':4 'winner':2", "contractId": "TvjQZRMp60nBk4Izmj3b", "resolverId": "...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712137385040}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1712137385054}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMD...

["20232024-nba-season", "nba", "basketball", "sports-default", "culture-default", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1716086519826

1716141792671

{"822595adb60f": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

Uej1Wo7RqpMPoJqtMMaX

which-nba-team-will-win-the-2nd-rou-0313b46e0196

0

Which NBA team will win the 2nd round series between the 2/7 seed and the 3/6 seed in the West

1712137448155

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CANCEL

public

1712137416657

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712137448155

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "22b055f81c54", "prob": 0.5, "text": "The winner of 1/8", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'1/8':4 'winner':2", "contractId": "Uej1Wo7RqpMPoJqtMMaX", "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "createdTime": 1...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

True

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712137416855}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712137416856}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId":...

["20232024-nba-season", "basketball", "sports-default", "nba", "culture-default", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

5IHF2yoEcEJy7xKp1RXy

which-nba-team-will-win-the-2nd-rou-7077825f4880

2587.957799933435

Which NBA team will win the 2nd round series between the 2/7 seed and the 3/6 seed in the East?

1716172677507

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

0bc8c7e13942

public

1712137443277

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.714928480642465, "platformFee": 4.714928480642465, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716172677507

120

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

5

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8b239955f765", "prob": 0.002833663786534854, "text": "The winner of 2/7", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.6617940709949153, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1288.5853978489542, "textFts": "'2/7':4 'winner':2", "contractId": "5IHF2yoEcEJy7xKp1RXy", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712137443501}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712137443509}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId"...

["20232024-nba-season", "culture-default", "basketball", "sports-default", "nba-playoffs", "nba"]

0.25

1716172562772

1716172576308

{"0bc8c7e13942": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

ztkwudLJYeh2UXowqmcp

which-nba-team-will-win-the-2nd-rou-9dc4d1e7f363

5176.312298213916

Which NBA team will win the 2nd round series between the 2/7 seed and the 3/6 seed in the West?

1716173198274

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

76908660f12b

public

1712137470427

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when the matchups are set.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.194541356697613, "platformFee": 13.194541356697613, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716173198274

180

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

8

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "db2ce17d141c", "prob": 0.0020862198491254005, "text": "The winner of 2/7", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.509828778372253, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2635.5487253726305, "textFts": "'2/7':4 'winner':2", "contractId": "ztkwudLJYeh2UXowqmcp", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712137470623}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712137470632}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2...

["basketball", "nba-playoffs", "culture-default", "20232024-nba-season", "nba", "sports-default"]

0.25

1716173158656

1716173173659

{"76908660f12b": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0.5964428622344448

hAyu1lthekRAd1JiqN2i

{"NO": 6.813687741969698, "YES": 996.9680346324517}

0

will-i-voidvamp-be-promoted-to-diam-f2c143facc1d

2057.3431508851

Will I @Voidvamp be promoted to Diamond in current Season 12 of Platinum League - Stellar Minotaurs?

1714626948163

X7mSvL54MORSKmMGAgPmZAdtbnE3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1712139847013

Voidvamp

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I promote, it resolves Yes. Else No. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of posting this question I am having 21st Rank. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.032727488120763, "platformFee": 8.032727488120763, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714626948163

140

Voidvamp

1714626948163

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfER8cY0bFxgzKzHxq7nWjTONOmYo6d3q1Ss0mLH2ydNxc=s96-c

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1692732719220

0

[{"name": "Masters League", "slug": "masters-league", "groupId": "33de3f34-cff5-4952-a0d8-e731c2c37f5f", "createdTime": 1712139847163}, {"name": "Platinum League", "slug": "platinum-league", "groupId": "ae17e701-0abb-4974-8bbb-505a34ba1303", "createdTime": 1712139847172}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforec...

["masters-league", "platinum-league", "metaforecasting", "manifold-leagues", "diamond-league"]

0.25

0.5

1714461559733

0.01

X7mSvL54MORSKmMGAgPmZAdtbnE3

0.04279604930569826

pxGDa9YXEW8RBQDCSp6y

{"NO": 1222.8785189666914, "YES": 5204.466942697363}

0

will-there-be-an-earthquake-greater-3baec1ab8c0f

4740.499673862106

Will there be an earthquake greater than 6.9 tomorrow in/near Taiwan?

1712246340000

SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2

cpmm-1

0

1.7431014615783873

True

basic

NO

public

1712140246540

Elliot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to yes if there is an earthquake beyond a 6.9 tomorrow in Taiwan. The magnitude of the earthquake will be measured from its center.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An e...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010396033872795413}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712270009507

1365

Elliot_dev

1712246340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e

41

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1696789198949

0

[{"name": "Earthquake", "slug": "earthquake", "groupId": "cf835665-726a-458f-8b28-702ab90d4249", "createdTime": 1712140246696}]

["earthquake"]

0.25

0.5

1712244699978

1712259576923

0.01

SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2

0.8127299607333702

0g99XKdQWW2UgQd5ADhP

{"NO": 1343.5730756106018, "YES": 870.3368362091438}

0.870123909587267

ifwhen-we-find-aliens-will-there-pr

1191.2329112350526

If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon

4132184340000

nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2

cpmm-1

0

9.817756965069606

False

basic

public

1712140617452

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve after a scientific consensus is reached", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02561861505155638}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.503316784890832, "platformFee": 0.05299109915574255, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JamesF

1719039508408

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1701462146149

0

[{"name": "👽 Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1712140617686}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712140617702}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", ...

["aliens", "science-default", "space-exploration", "space"]

0.25

0.5

1719039505253

1712157182527

Gv33EGuTvv8DUfeHftgb

asian-stock-nifty-3-how-will-each-o-04ee31a07869

7198.493799400202

Asian Stock (Nifty + 3): How Will Each Of The Indian Indices Close On April 4 Compared To Its Close On April 3?

1712238262033

kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1712141943673

Grey Box

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 5.50 am - 4.30 pm IST (different time fo...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712238262033

360

GreyBox

1712238262033

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "364fbb7b06dc", "prob": 1, "text": "Nifty - NIFTY_50: Higher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2147.3145279591945, "userId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.8439957436694954, "textFts": "'50':3 'higher':4 'nifti':1,2", "contractId": "Gv33EGuTvv8DUfeHftgb", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1692725309128

0

[{"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1712141944000}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712141944007}, {"name": "Nifty", "slug": "nifty", "groupId": "51e933dd-5102-4766-ad56-c8b5634a0028", "createdTime": 1712141944005...

["asia", "stocks", "nifty", "stock-marketdaily", "india"]

0.25

1712237751185

0

kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2

False

0.41632750093621307

FdH0rkiTkiki32G0IZBr

{"NO": 91.71937889513981, "YES": 231.95241333566932}

0.22000000000000006

metaculus-on-january-1-2026-will-cr

237.98386579348434

[Metaculus] On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

1767427140000

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712142121801

Mirror Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the or...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1449876811634587, "platformFee": 1.1449876811634587, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

mirrorbot

1713863127010

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1696426201173

0

[{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1712142121954}]

["metaculus"]

0.25

0.5

1713863123830

0.8040732199929373

xqw8VAezMYlxS92FsQxB

{"NO": 1216.3903613190687, "YES": 910.6399949937634}

0.8457233275074827

will-a-mass-shooter-claim-that-ai-t

632.7221355527934

Will a mass shooter claim that AI told them to kill people before 2035

2051240340000

nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2

cpmm-1

0

9.7546961513866

False

basic

public

1712142214589

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on testimony of mass shooters", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0013498464872088167}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.10964486651304514, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JamesF

1718932499510

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c

17

0

0.3333333333333333

1701462146149

0

[{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1712142214760}, {"name": "AI risk", "slug": "ai-risk", "groupId": "KIhsoJW7X87JwWSgB3Vt", "createdTime": 1712142214763}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712142214765}, {"name"...

["ai-safety", "ai-risk", "ai", "ai-doom", "mass-shootings"]

0.25

0.5

1718932496416

blXc0EeUqSEY0EVQZ2ab

what-will-be-the-outcome-of-2024-so

485.42405714546373

What will be the outcome of 2024 South Korean general election? (resolves proportionally to seats)

1712761140000

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CHOOSE_MULTIPLE

public

1712143012657

Seo Sanghyeon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purpose of this market, satellite parties are included to main parties. Specifically, 더불어민주연합 is included in 더불어민주당, and 국민의미래 is included in 국민의힘.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712803112373

370

SanghyeonSeo

1712761140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c

5

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "c292cd6379d8", "prob": 0.5889561340592958, "text": "Democratic Party of Korea (더불어민주당)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 142.68159256147393, "userId": "0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.58024038364115, "textFts": "'democrat':1 'korea':4 'parti':2 '더불어민주당':5", "contractId": "blXc0EeUqSEY0EVQZ...

1

0.3333333333333333

1690372396327

0

[{"name": "South Korea", "slug": "south-korea", "groupId": "kV57SoDVhV0XmMPpECLz", "createdTime": 1712143012884}]

["south-korea"]

0.25

1712750559877

1712803098317

{"08ec6c551b19": 4.040404040404041, "c292cd6379d8": 58.58585858585859, "e0f33cd8b757": 36.36363636363637, "fb71ae26dd15": 1.0101010101010102}

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

True

0tZwuWiwU8GmmXGDNTYG

what-will-be-party-vote-shares-of-2

222.25712277063138

What will be party vote shares of 2024 South Korean general election? (resolves proportionally to party vote shares)

1712761140000

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

CHOOSE_MULTIPLE

public

1712143375137

Seo Sanghyeon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712802442603

290

SanghyeonSeo

1712761140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "7b638ff66830", "prob": 0.2784638079370448, "text": "Democratic Party of Korea (더불어민주당)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.16345457413934, "userId": "0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 124.79781795513725, "textFts": "'democrat':1 'korea':4 'parti':2 '더불어민주당':5", "contractId": "0tZwuWiwU8GmmXGDN...

1

0.3333333333333333

1690372396327

0

[{"name": "South Korea", "slug": "south-korea", "groupId": "kV57SoDVhV0XmMPpECLz", "createdTime": 1712143375413}]

["south-korea"]

0.25

1712750802645

1712802405650

{"51d00b93574e": 36.633663366336634, "6d66a5f1575a": 6.930693069306931, "70973408cfba": 1.9801980198019802, "7b638ff66830": 26.73267326732673, "91aaa5763268": 23.762376237623762, "e55a764a4171": 3.9603960396039604}

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

True

0.5611380343498902

JGInXJON2llmNcwS1qUv

{"NO": 235.94933982130632, "YES": 143.0232167887723}

0.67

what-will-be-the-turnout-of-2024-so

136.72189449899713

What will be the turnout of 2024 South Korean general election?

1712748702501

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

cpmm-1

0

1.0669683598646296

True

play

MKT

public

1712143843555

Seo Sanghyeon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.008392056687691829}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712748702501

180

SanghyeonSeo

1712748702501

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1690372396327

0

[{"name": "South Korea", "slug": "south-korea", "groupId": "kV57SoDVhV0XmMPpECLz", "createdTime": 1712143843722}]

["south-korea"]

0.25

0.5

1712736263483

1712748668767

0.67

0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1

0.6009153444008344

Yst1tfMtjLvOXUJE3WpA

{"NO": 1163.1424718939888, "YES": 862.4350710984619}

0.6700478061623317

before-the-end-of-2025-the-russians

500.31169555552225

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

1767308340000

2glUIGTIsqWiHEKd8VUAR3daNDm1

cpmm-1

0

9.75855590079432

False

basic

public

1712145311113

Sergey Setti

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a strategic city in northeastern Ukraine, Kharkiv remains vulnerable to Russian military aggression. Given the ongoing conflict and Russia's past actions, an attempt to seize control of this key urban center before the end of 2025 is a serious p...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7931372473128899, "platformFee": 0.7931372473128899, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SergeySetti

1715526278741

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteF3OLb3AtMA7B3_Uj_kJzzpKPyxD5WJhRfieee45_yuhs=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1690929675941

0

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1712145311253}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1712145311263}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1712145311267}]

["ukraine", "russia", "wars"]

0.25

0.5

1715526275478

0.2907744369156623

Ks1y55ba9o1RaAsoPTuL

{"NO": 845.7585404266925, "YES": 1402.5299176336077}

0.19822506751164953

will-denmark-legalize-high-tch-cann

549.8725480896886

Will Denmark legalize high TCH cannabis by the end of 2025

1767308340000

5Shmml00lSWxQswuJuhdx4bD7cj2

cpmm-1

0

9.641416138321254

False

basic

public

1712146526611

GoldenNugget

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positive if it is legal to buy weed with THC above 5% without a prescription in Denmark.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Buying cannabis with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "THC content below 0.2% ", "type": "text", "mark...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5684080769272284, "platformFee": 1.5684080769272284, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

2609

1716386132222

0

https://firebasestorage.…6bf-20edde46a2dd

11

0

0.3333333333333333

1690449598844

0

[{"name": "Denmark", "slug": "denmark", "groupId": "yUgDbT0OBXc982lOq9Nz", "createdTime": 1712146526802}, {"name": "Cannabis", "slug": "cannabis", "groupId": "4d7535ea-5cd1-45fa-bc6c-8ad82bc06c74", "createdTime": 1712146526805}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "cr...

["denmark", "cannabis", "politics-default", "drug-policy"]

0.25

0.5

1716379358855

1716386130420

0.5

rAZ04s4PpVL4M8yexoTL

{"NO": 12.987012987012974, "YES": 770}

0

will-tsla-open-on-april-3rd-higher

670

Will TSLA open on April 3rd higher than its closing price the previous day?

1712152253869

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

cpmm-1

0

4.465427174429473

True

play

NO

public

1712146897788

RiskOptimization

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.016586498590147603}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712152253869

100

RiskOptimization

1712152253869

0

https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1705974765884

0

[{"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1712146897926}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712146897923}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 171214689793...

["ai-stocks", "stocks", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1712150205806

0.02

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

0.34367173307068083

P1yvadebkdGKWRBHzM2b

{"NO": 764.9056414578849, "YES": 1464.0662422766056}

0.21480615741867332

will-the-uk-ban-or-restrict-arms-sa

1400.7398815775168

Will the UK ban or restrict arms sales to Israel in 2024?

1734911940000

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

9.720654338630357

False

basic

public

1712147217681

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following this week's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/02/israel-idf-air-st...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.008923008299169977, "month": -0.008923008299169977}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5458635566802066, "platformFee": 1.0031983012754253, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SimonGrayson

1720160421438

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

28

1

0.3333333333333333

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712147217829}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1712147217838}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTi...

["politics-default", "israel", "uk-politics", "arabisraeli-conflict", "uk-conservative-party", "benjamin-netanyahu", "rishi-sunak", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"]

0.25

0.5

1720160418379

1712316531377

0.2320761837234867

jjaqLDFoQPHL6cb1dZRI

{"NO": 883.9593611516689, "YES": 1300.0656338046822}

0.17045814631135825

will-a-paper-clip-maximizing-agi-be

1112.3776656429811

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

2238814740000

nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2

cpmm-1

0

9.68830171576684

False

basic

public

1712147287012

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGI will be taken from Manifold AI’s definition. A Paper clip maximizing AGI is an AGI with the sole purpose of producing the most paper clips possible ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3328801648338174, "platformFee": 0.3328801648338174, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JamesF

1713844980072

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1701462146149

0

[{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1712147287172}, {"name": "AI Doom", "slug": "ai-doom", "groupId": "UIAZgEDhRk62eZLK9SXB", "createdTime": 1712147287179}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712147287181}, {"n...

["agi", "ai-doom", "ai", "ai-risk"]

0.25

0.5

1713844976363

1712282918480

ZBgVuOtF8Ctnoq5hFueN

what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-9d6026c7b438

1164.595465487999

What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, April 5th, 2024?

1712289540000

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

basic

MKT

public

1712147331251

EBurk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712421388275

1515

EBurk

1712505795843

0

https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad

24

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2e76c2d4122e", "prob": 0.07, "text": "Black Hat will make an appearance", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.71540050206877, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 191.99659892616924, "textFts": "'appear':6 'black':1 'hat':2 'make':4", "contractId": "ZBgVuOtF8Ctnoq5hFueN", "resolution": "...

1

0.3333333333333333

1706489499554

0

[{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712147331471}, {"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "createdTime": 1712147331468}, {"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlHW3Kbel", "createdTi...

["space", "engineering", "language", "romance", "sarcasm", "webcomics", "mathematics", "xkcd", "eclipse"]

0.25

1712288434080

1712505795410

0.04

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

False

0.49553464356744525

KmKDZW2hlVvgRXCdTFMw

{"NO": 130.39749769253243, "YES": 196.6891342807891}

0.39438928883614854

will-special-counsel-seek-judge-can

120.8469280228342

Will special counsel seek Judge Cannon’s recusal in Trump documents case by end of 2024?

1735707540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712149144844

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.024241005633048984, "month": -0.024241005633048984}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0673992073220047, "platformFee": 0.7907538742237632, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

BTE

1719929888006

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

7

1

0.3333333333333333

1645484592545

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1712149145021}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712149145027}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rz...

["trial-of-the-century", "law-order", "trump-indictments"]

0.25

0.5

1719929884921

0.37988103620004227

kmu6ITrB1oFdJUSt8A63

{"NO": 259.99923841591044, "YES": 359.73120695041234}

0.31

can-integrating-ai-into-genomics-an

329.47980018927666

Can integrating AI into genomics and personalized medicine effectively double human lifespan within next 50 yrs?

1714795140000

aXl9mLt7LFMRKNlvWRDaATnoe9D3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1712149286608

Hemanth kapa

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1187005464753705, "platformFee": 0.1187005464753705, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714796047754

300

HemanthKapa

1714795140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…094-88a8cae0885b

14

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1710707591812

0

[{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1712149286739}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1712149286747}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 171214...

["ai-impacts", "longevity", "ai-safety", "science-default", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1714776735940

1712156335751

0.31

aXl9mLt7LFMRKNlvWRDaATnoe9D3

wjYxeliFHE7HrrI3MykB

what-countries-will-vladimir-putin-b2f514fc62c8

3883.8310523265404

What countries will Vladimir Putin visit during 2024?

1735707540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1712149355770

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 40.01800376351021, "platformFee": 1.8489533444328268, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1100

BTE

1719677529352

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

30

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ced02b51e422", "prob": 0.33772133684800737, "text": "Turkey", "index": 0, "poolNo": 49.11579381663352, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.31710738835683, "textFts": "'turkey':1", "contractId": "wjYxeliFHE7HrrI3MykB", "createdTime": 1712149355770, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

0.3333333333333333

1645484592545

0

[{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1712149356022}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hXGBmhMWy8gwn7p", "createdTime": 1712149356020}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpi...

["ukrainerussia-war", "vladimir-putin", "russia"]

0.25

1718869349382

1719677528250

False

gOKIwQYsqUtlSKvyfrew

what-countries-will-ci-jinping-visi

933.0459785016336

What countries will Xi Jinping visit during 2024?

1735707540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712149521274

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5714547262771055, "platformFee": 1.5714547262771055, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

880

BTE

1716312208433

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bcd1f4350a99", "prob": 0.11312217194570141, "text": "Turkey", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.58163265306123, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 129.99999999999997, "textFts": "'turkey':1", "contractId": "gOKIwQYsqUtlSKvyfrew", "createdTime": 1712149521274, "probChanges": {"day": 2...

0.3333333333333333

1645484592545

0

[{"name": "Xi Jinping", "slug": "xi-jinping", "groupId": "9a2af487-f1e7-4147-ad6e-0ee17a81e74f", "createdTime": 1712149521530}, {"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1712149521536}, {"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "g...

["xi-jinping", "global-macro", "who-does-xi-think-he-is"]

0.25

1716312205053

1712149655604

False

0.4999999999999999

JCQ4C5lHDAzUfwk0kMtp

{"NO": 306.1913167103641, "YES": 32.65931936750286}

1

will-i-eat-some-type-of-curry-tonig

206.19131671036408

Will I eat some type of Curry tonight for dinner?

1712183183484

V3ev7gKdI2cx2TLo6gSUN1UuegI2

cpmm-1

0

3.293763643839645

True

play

YES

public

1712149872173

Greg

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have some leftover green curry I made yesterday, as well as some premade Japanese curry packets my girlfriend gave me. Relevant info: Japanese curry is my favourite food. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.096382641465657}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712183183484

100

ibuprofen

1712238813169

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIsQQ0IKY5_tQzKYRJh5KoynvPYXjfoPnEDnprOG_km=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1708522236965

0

[{"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1712149872318}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1712149872341}]

["food", "personal"]

0.25

0.5

1712165331392

1712238811932

0.9

V3ev7gKdI2cx2TLo6gSUN1UuegI2

0.28988695244535495

lRLkkoa1Xwo1UkTG0wTV

{"NO": 21.230703750228713, "YES": 26335.08796056365}

0

-will-godzilla-x-kong-gross-35-mill

26816.628135977768

🦍 🦎 Will GODZILLA X KONG gross >$35 million (domestic) during its 2nd weekend (April 5-7)?

1712767492628

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

3.094052062804208

True

play

NO

public

1712150744734

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the \"Domestic\" and \"Weekend\" tabs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0024414877336990624}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712767492628

280

Ziddletwix

1712767492628

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

12

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1712150744877}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1712150744879}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fO...

["television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "boxoffice", "culture-default", "hollywood"]

0.25

0.5

1712767487689

0

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

0.40977011330984947

CnalvuY3S1eDZ3d8VfT5

{"NO": 170.41779837127848, "YES": 292.68836693621586}

0.28786596231188866

will-google-images-offer-an-option

496.93188235473605

Will Google image search offer an option to hide/filter for ai images by end 2024?

1735718340000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1712150983330

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With UI, on PC on chrome or ff for most logged in users", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ie users can filter for something like ai/nonai/both ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2635410179126194, "platformFee": 0.7797158187359006, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Ernie

1716886017837

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1712150983468}, {"name": "AI Image Generation", "slug": "ai-image-generation", "groupId": "f6beb7b0-b7ad-42da-b632-2d42ccc1e58e", "createdTime": 1712205201692}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q...

["google-ef2cf716540e", "ai-image-generation", "ai-impacts"]

0.25

0.5

1716886014367

1712151022555

0.2905879127124724

9QB2vi7Wzj68L55IcTLr

{"NO": 839.6708822133552, "YES": 1323.4994420363564}

0.20627038409367787

will-manifold-require-phone-verific-f3809434efc0

786.723106350216

Will Manifold require phone verification for all new users in any time in 2024?

1735631940000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

9.662665424245755

False

basic

public

1712151178161

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4771228263382823, "platformFee": 2.4771228263382823, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AmmonLam

1715947494871

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

18

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712151178523}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712151178559}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1715947491548

1712725586328

0.3198293985835342

zyJkVxouxlanEfAnCTmi

{"NO": 939.2203537275536, "YES": 1094.8908098067611}

0.2874265332572345

will-manifold-require-phone-verific-17662b05a7a3

310

Will Manifold require phone verification for all new users for over 2 months in 2024?

1735631940000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

9.600553711782235

False

basic

public

1712151300707

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the feature that phone verification is required for all new users stayed up for over 2 consecutive months in 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 3.885780586188048e-16, "week": 3.885780586188048e-16, "month": 3.885780586188048e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.09997431502656896, "platformFee": 0.09997431502656896, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AmmonLam

1714508190658

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

12

0

0.3333333333333333

1668192587343

0

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712151300889}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712151300892}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-bus...

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

0.5

1714503105993

1714508178653

0.7933469342603758

6UXjansTpdH13q7nefZe

{"NO": 2510.9534482485365, "YES": 108.81507988846654}

1

will-netanyahu-stay-the-prime-minis-50c5594b6c73

3272.9875312984504

Will Netanyahu stay the Prime Minister of Israel until June 30th, 2024?

1719723540000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1712151964881

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power as the Prime Minister of Israel until 11:59 PM ET on June 30th 2024. \"In power\" is defined as Netanyahu still officially holding the office of the Prime Minister of Israel...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.010710551452777661, "month": 0.07136494783245018}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.192425605076199, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719796851225

240

Bayesian

1719723540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

14

1

0.3333333333333333

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1712151965033}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1712151965061}, {"name": "🇮🇱🧑‍⚖️ Israeli Government", "slug": "israeli-domestic-politics", "groupId":...

["israel", "israeli-politics", "israeli-domestic-politics", "arabisraeli-conflict"]

0.25

0.5

1719721546429

1712156088239

0.99

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

0.5

N2c6Zju7RpH3YMGcpnSg

{"NO": 12.269938650306585, "YES": 814.9999999999998}

0

will-the-sp-500-open-on-april-3rd-h

2145

Will the S&P 500 open on April 3rd higher than its closing price the previous day?

1712152316962

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

cpmm-1

0

4.552119023272709

True

play

NO

public

1712152285538

RiskOptimization

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712152316962

100

RiskOptimization

1712152316962

0

https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1705974765884

0

0.25

0.5

1712152313789

0.99

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

0.5

czvLPghYV13lKUhdkzwW

{"NO": 12.269938650306699, "YES": 815}

0

will-the-opening-price-of-nvda-on-a

715

Will the opening price of NVDA on April 3rd be higher than its closing price the previous day?

1712152399515

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

cpmm-1

0

4.552119023272691

True

play

NO

public

1712152382073

RiskOptimization

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712152399515

100

RiskOptimization

1712152399515

0

https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1705974765884

0

0.25

0.5

1712152392961

0.01

PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3

0.5000000000000002

HeXW5F4tU0GMxyXqiV6J

{"NO": 119.99999999999994, "YES": 120.00000000000003}

0

will-this-market-close-at-49-or-bel

140.70958532742466

Will this market close at 49% or below?

1712897940000

wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52

cpmm-1

0

1.9377022156946544

True

play

NO

public

1712153391701

Robin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if this market is at 49% or below at closing time. Resolves to NO if the market is above a 49% chance.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4934307713407242}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712912967428

120

pie

1712897940000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c

6

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1711856381867

0

[{"name": "🪞 Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1712153391867}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1712157977848}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f41...

["selfresolving", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1712896292947

1712159216677

0.5

wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52