p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.8110881169281481 | L8KjVh9noBBJCT0CLCwO | {"NO": 10324.141551353521, "YES": 447.7416727190729} | 1 | will-joe-biden-debate-donald-trump | 12135.980007993028 | Will Joe Biden debate Donald Trump before the end of July 2024? | 1719544787478 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712082448030 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1326164163869138} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.771156291242626, "platformFee": 19.820924840114234, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719544787478 | 1000 | strutheo | 1719544787478 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712082448222}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712082448241}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-el... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "2024-us-election", "elections", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719544593306 | 1719536854784 | 0.99 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5128126636802861 | 77mSc2pWKTJvW0Bfhnmz | {"NO": 138.34036006075917, "YES": 182.9161259356821} | 0.4432336002609639 | will-any-laws-against-selling-or-ma | 60 | Will any laws against selling or making cultured meat be struck down by the end of 2028? | 1861941540000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712082513799 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if any law that bans the sell or manufacture of cultured meat is struck down in a court by the end of 2028. Appeals of the decision won't be considered for this question, and the court order must not be something temp... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.15501233461791092, "platformFee": 0.15501233461791092, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Noah1 | 1715523041648 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy", "createdTime": 1712082514067}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712082514059}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime... | ["animal-welfare", "us-politics", "vegan", "law-order", "cultured-meat"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715523038273 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7452740645692669 | gQYJn7H5udvrbmOALEFM | {"NO": 1099.2950217944824, "YES": 949.3193362375315} | 0.7721063000377579 | will-there-be-a-lawsuit-against-any | 188.1969868615835 | Will there be a lawsuit against any laws that ban the selling or making of cultured meat by the end of 2028? | 1861941540000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611872968571777 | False | basic | public | 1712082584855 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if there is a lawsuit that aims to strike down any law banning the selling or making of cultured meat by the end of 2028.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 7.771561172376096e-16, "week": 7.771561172376096e-16, "month": 7.771561172376096e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2195129133466335, "platformFee": 0.2195129133466335, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Noah1 | 1713882888302 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy", "createdTime": 1712082585050}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1712082585055}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712... | ["animal-welfare", "vegan", "law-order", "us-politics", "cultured-meat"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713882884967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2852225070632385 | YnQ8kwHsnrTfjmEW5EfW | {"NO": 35.39238981219751, "YES": 22542.862613106558} | 0 | -will-godzilla-x-kong-gross-40-mill | 22513.327844940908 | 🦍 🦎 Will GODZILLA X KONG gross >$40 million (domestic) during its 2nd weekend (April 5-7)? | 1712767350450 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4489804879472286 | True | play | NO | public | 1712082741443 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the \"Domestic\" and \"Weekend\" tabs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004125629574311982} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712767350450 | 300 | Ziddletwix | 1712767350450 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "Hollywood", "slug": "hollywood", "groupId": "qnJlrpEJJ1i5tEJ6J2jM", "createdTime": 1712082741659}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1712082741664}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU... | ["hollywood", "television-film", "entertainment", "boxoffice", "movies", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712767329044 | 1712767342826 | 0 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zkv0uVV69mIsL07IAgWn | how-many-states-will-ban-the-sale-o | 220.0120586732634 | How many states will ban the sale or making of cultured meat by the end of 2028? | 1861941540000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712082849570 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to how many states ban the sale or making of cultured meat by the end of 2028. If a law in a state is unenforceable, that state will not be included in the count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | Noah1 | 1712752672312 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "025cff0f4347", "prob": 0.7129330837649246, "text": "0-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 110.6920520725398, "userId": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.57083948522986, "textFts": "'-2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "Zkv0uVV69mIsL07IAgWn", "createdTime": 1712082849570, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712082849933}, {"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy", "createdTime": 1712082849931}, {"name": "Cultured meat", "slug": "cultured-meat", "groupId": "9bdfe2cc-1cb6-4508-893d-cc... | ["law-order", "animal-welfare", "cultured-meat", "vegan", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1712671013621 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m6HutGB1zIEqThIvUXlz | who-has-done-more-for-humanity-elon | 0 | Who has done more for humanity, Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos? | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712082865459 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1712108906102 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712082865703}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1712082865706}, {"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "... | ["entertainment", "public-figures", "taylor-swift", "humanity", "celebrities", "jeff-bezos", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "public-opinion", "polls"] | 0.25 | 1712108905656 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.662890574811181 | X7e4ramPDDvgxFuA3192 | {"NO": 950.1737224691171, "YES": 1014.6168245320348} | 0.648073296306768 | will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul | 586.2782878063675 | Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2035? | 2082776340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.584786835265863 | False | basic | public | 1712082870917 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "13LppwCdBXuweLl8f39Z", "label": "/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown-1aa60a8ed5ce"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "OGQs... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.30107102998627006, "platformFee": 0.30107102998627006, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1715521670483 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1712082871058}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 1712082871093}, {"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "creat... | ["animal-consumption-trends", "vegan", "food", "culture-default", "futurism", "mcdonalds", "fast-food", "vegetarian", "science-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715521667063 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.741145753316018 | QBaBGi0lCxjTYyJGeRgh | {"NO": 20070.81228523017, "YES": 66.89093097124862} | 1 | will-uconn-beat-alabama-in-the-mens | 20520.006594434108 | Will UCONN beat Alabama in the men's basketball tournament? | 1712459156932 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9156898288308821 | True | play | YES | public | 1712082926408 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0039651593076031055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712459156932 | 375 | Bruce54df | 1712459156932 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712082926571}, {"name": "🏀 College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "groupId": "beeb69e0-b36f-451a-80e1-e059df456bb1", "createdTime": 1712082926573}, {"name": "⛹️ March Madness", "slug": "march-madness", "grou... | ["basketball", "college-basketball", "march-madness"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712458916104 | 1 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7344164879319036 | bnex0tvkQjVe95noda18 | {"NO": 3525.461058318472, "YES": 115.59102411819917} | 1 | will-purdue-beat-nc-state-in-the-me | 3638.579059861107 | Will Purdue beat NC State in the men's basketball tournament? | 1712448819090 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2725484353362244 | True | play | YES | public | 1712083024169 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.062167925509854616} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712448819090 | 335 | Bruce54df | 1712448819090 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "groupId": "beeb69e0-b36f-451a-80e1-e059df456bb1", "createdTime": 1712083024484}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712083024489}, {"name": "⛹️ March Madness", "slug": "march-madness", "grou... | ["college-basketball", "basketball", "march-madness"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712448801584 | 0.99 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4716030360126402 | K5rlFukADQDAz281cNJl | {"NO": 294.718784811913, "YES": 157.83390695797607} | 0.6249865297026601 | will-3-or-more-states-pass-laws-tha | 133 | Will 3 or more states pass laws that ban the sale or making of cultured meat by the end of 2025? | 1767247140000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712083027303 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if 3 or more states pass laws that ban the sale or making of cultured meat by the end of 2025. The enforceability of the laws will not be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.231013996888018, "platformFee": 1.231013996888018, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Noah1 | 1714693084484 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712083027541}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712083027546}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": 17120... | ["us-politics", "law-order", "vegan", "animal-welfare", "cultured-meat"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714693081162 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33384514714839997 | 7OJQII6Wn1YhLAfmJVl6 | {"NO": 58.2007629033983, "YES": 2482.008884340261} | 0 | parlay-will-iowa-beat-uconn-in-the | 2378.383836255004 | Parlay: will Iowa beat UCONN in the women's basketball tournament AND will Caitlin Clark score 40 or more points to win? | 1712374610209 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9331776980962005 | True | play | NO | public | 1712083260934 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both must be true to resolve Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.024253321033075276} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712374610209 | 235 | Bruce54df | 1712374610209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "Women's NCAA basketball", "slug": "womens-ncaa-basketball", "groupId": "23ac7b3c-a185-4340-8ba9-d9399e4929f0", "createdTime": 1712083261081}, {"name": "⛹️ March Madness", "slug": "march-madness", "groupId": "Tp4TDTWUGnEUMvBcCPIR", "createdTime": 1712083261089}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball",... | ["womens-ncaa-basketball", "march-madness", "basketball"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712373810918 | 1712094832816 | 0.01 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6312235086498666 | iV0jC6Xj4M9ktNgDtmqL | {"NO": 25034.721580008434, "YES": 23.858460636295984} | 1 | will-iowa-beat-uconn-in-the-womens | 27870.11356619756 | Will Iowa beat UCONN in the women's basketball tournament? | 1712374584029 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.11949092809341 | True | play | YES | public | 1712083330068 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06534457286191742} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712374584029 | 475 | Bruce54df | 1712374584029 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712083330216}, {"name": "Women's NCAA basketball", "slug": "womens-ncaa-basketball", "groupId": "23ac7b3c-a185-4340-8ba9-d9399e4929f0", "createdTime": 1712083330228}, {"name": "⛹️ March Madness", "slug": "march-madness",... | ["basketball", "womens-ncaa-basketball", "march-madness"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712374429867 | 1 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1728326895144932 | x37hGIbw8mEmdpIPjtfj | {"NO": 943.9898173747738, "YES": 1125.7880373590328} | 0.14908366666338185 | will-the-federal-government-ban-the | 194 | Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028? | 1861941540000 | HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.801904159257173 | False | basic | public | 1712083391751 | Noah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if the US federal government bans the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028. Whether the rule is struck down in the courts or later rescinded will not matter for this question.", "type": "te... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Noah1 | 1713236811873 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699627416651 | 0 | [{"name": "Cultured meat", "slug": "cultured-meat", "groupId": "9bdfe2cc-1cb6-4508-893d-cc80180f99d6", "createdTime": 1712083391917}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712083391927}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ"... | ["cultured-meat", "us-politics", "vegan", "law-order", "animal-welfare"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712721702103 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5990456492598689 | mve7JsknknZwCE3jPKDB | {"NO": 1032.7950776631092, "YES": 974.6122065997358} | 0.6128895388667769 | will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown | 97.25632453308891 | Will White Castle offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2035? | 2082776340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.699095624266098 | False | basic | public | 1712083681486 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "X7e4ramPDDvgxFuA3192", "label": "/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "13LppwCdBXuweLl8... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714489626310 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1712083681638}, {"name": "Fast Food 🍔🍟", "slug": "fast-food", "groupId": "cbbbc185-555a-458f-bc7a-96c699c59a1d", "createdTime": 1712083681640}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupI... | ["animal-consumption-trends", "fast-food", "futurism", "food", "science-default", "vegan", "technology-default", "culture-default", "vegetarian"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714489623126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zjCCSmBrHE2rdt5HJIc9 | which-fast-food-chain-in-the-usa-wi | 127.71525701086472 | Which fast food chain in the USA will offer a lab-grown / cultivated meat product first? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712083838119 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "X7e4ramPDDvgxFuA3192", "label": "/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mve7JsknknZwCE3j... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2953541776503311, "platformFee": 0.2953541776503311, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714665551147 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e496c3820b45", "prob": 0.06239908324585364, "text": "Mc Donald's", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.016441884750883, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 300.7645831486731, "textFts": "'donald':2 'mc':1", "contractId": "zjCCSmBrHE2rdt5HJIc9", "createdTime": 1712083838119, "probChanges... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712083838351}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712083838350}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCV... | ["science-default", "culture-default", "technology-default", "vegan", "animal-consumption-trends", "futurism", "food", "fast-food", "vegetarian"] | 0.25 | 1714665546850 | 1712085486386 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10717662047921243 | yjx3avrI9SqTMpYjhmoV | {"NO": 898.5678360000744, "YES": 1591.6029458312694} | 0.06347052484910817 | will-dulles-international-airport-b | 888.2302602667879 | Will Dulles International Airport be renamed to include Trump by the end of 2028? | 1861937940000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.207533442886062 | False | basic | public | 1712083963227 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002148523278236378} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.160570868248441, "platformFee": 0.935717754391774, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1718362903277 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1712083963374}] | ["donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718362900231 | 1712239130512 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bFvcMdV3qfewuvhQcVSx | did-manifold-accidentally-add-a-bug | 0 | Did Manifold "*accidentally* add a bug in Manifold which breaks core functionality" for April Fools 2024? | 1712383140000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712084391784 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Did Manifold \"*accidentally* add a bug in Manifold which breaks core functionality\" for April Fools 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is asking whether this is an accurate descripti... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712383140745 | Gabrielle | 1712490334931 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 26 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1641356493109 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712084398727}, {"name": "April Fool's", "slug": "april-fools", "groupId": "ey1lIJfAPdK2ngVC3jKo", "createdTime": 1712084400754}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "april-fools"] | 0.25 | 1712490334307 | ["2fe3113c6856"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6236285464571223 | Ct7JF7eWakyLeIEST5Vm | {"NO": 347.4180842680089, "YES": 179.5782929385578} | 0.7622211999418099 | will-season-2-of-the-one-piece-live | 314 | Will Season 2 of the One Piece Live Action have more than 8 episodes? | 1743479940000 | k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712084405129 | OnePieceExplained | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 1 was initially ordered for 10 episodes but ended up with 8. Will we see more than 8 episodes in Season 2?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/f_1rWzloyiI?si=0qR6APVW... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | OnePieceExplained | 1713340358356 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708470053991 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712084405472}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1712084405471}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpV... | ["entertainment", "manga", "one-piece-stocks", "anime", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713340355109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.445921037555506 | Rxn0vhpuy1OlemcjnSKO | {"NO": 149.501885986896, "YES": 222.1586133976783} | 0.35131866197846956 | will-the-whiskey-peak-arc-get-cut-i | 69.71840041832267 | Will the Whiskey Peak Arc get cut in Season 2 of the One Piece Live Action? | 1744257540000 | k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712084541879 | OnePieceExplained | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be considered \"cut\" if the crew does not go to Whiskey Peak, even if some of the events takes place elsewhere. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/f_1rWzloyiI?si=0qR6APVWOlMsYl0o", "frameBo... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12310256430550601, "platformFee": 0.12310256430550601, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | OnePieceExplained | 1715492143888 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708470053991 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1712084542055}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712084542039}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime... | ["manga", "entertainment", "anime", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715492140641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2j9A4h5ylWx5jAb3tJYi | will-bitcoin-next-rise-above-70k-or-1043bc980033 | 2175.8311436479303 | Will Bitcoin next rise above 70k or fall below 60k? | 1712508040445 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 9a57cc2bf0e0 | public | 1712084688763 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712508040445 | 220 | kurt | 1720053161621 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9a57cc2bf0e0", "prob": 0.9931229284967346, "text": ">70k USD", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1279.6641678591116, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.861281650051696, "textFts": "'70k':1 'usd':2", "contractId": "2j9A4h5ylWx5jAb3tJYi", "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W5a... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712084689039}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712084689031}, {"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTi... | ["bitcoin", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-news", "crypto-prices"] | 0.25 | 1712507690419 | 1712507605761 | {"9a57cc2bf0e0": 100} | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13327376092132343 | wzvKw7pX5G5yVUMqUrPc | {"NO": 114.78039643756209, "YES": 158.99999999999997} | 0.09991212925015562 | will-why-im-not-into-the-free-energ | 39 | Will "Why I’m not into the Free Energy Principle" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712084692867 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LessWrong | 1712096126840 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712084693085}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712096123603 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6160492096127932 | mPxNUnZ50UnZwvjYvHbo | {"NO": 1063.2592654810728, "YES": 78.73095656130374} | 0.9558863713474672 | will-the-one-piece-live-action-get | 1519.8737273240247 | Will the One Piece Live Action get renewed for a Season 3? | 1744257540000 | k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712084734908 | OnePieceExplained | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/f_1rWzloyiI?si=0qR6APVWOlMsYl0o", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003046313126204736} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.312342761742146, "platformFee": 0.11224889418955139, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | OnePieceExplained | 1718941971063 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708470053991 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1712084735078}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1712084735080}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime... | ["manga", "anime", "entertainment", "one-piece-theories"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718941967954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3126781800117767 | yeNEO0E3SuA8FbPQpsHO | {"NO": 88.74852442847089, "YES": 88.74852442847094} | 0 | will-christianity-be-banned-by-any | 1387.8613910628899 | Will Christianity be banned by any Western government by 2032? | 1713861411652 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.723059823742627 | True | play | NO | public | 1712084942113 | Forrest Taylor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on the prediction from a friend of mine: \"Christianity would be outlawed and would be looked at as a hate group.\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If this happens, market resolves YES. If not, then NO.", "type": "text"}]... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02429146261345142} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6950422543196275, "platformFee": 1.6950422543196275, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713861411652 | 120 | TiredCliche | 1713861437316 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1683826070915 | 0 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1712084942285}, {"name": "Christianity", "slug": "christianity", "groupId": "ba9d5230-b177-47fa-a024-d5aca860cdbf", "createdTime": 1712084942286}, {"name": "Legislation", "slug": "legislation", "groupId": "BStefYQfU9Xhfsh2d4Jg",... | ["religion", "christianity", "legislation", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713861337973 | 1713861436795 | 0.31 | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7slttTArlTXxXVAmCE5o | which-alabasta-saga-characters-will | 269.7297661604009 | Which Alabasta Saga characters will NOT be adapted in One Piece Season 2? [ADD YOUR GUESSES] | 1744257540000 | k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712085152494 | OnePieceExplained | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not adapted means does not appear at all in the series. Having a reduced role, but still appearing does not count. For clarity's sake, voting \"Yes\" means they will not be adapted.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "at... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9339265894861544, "platformFee": 0.638402618295424, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OnePieceExplained | 1719822548228 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c | 12 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6192c72aa860", "prob": 0.03846153846153846, "text": "Laboon", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.000000000000002, "userId": "k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 225.00000000000009, "textFts": "'laboon':1", "contractId": "7slttTArlTXxXVAmCE5o", "createdTime": 1712085152494, "probChanges": {"day": -... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708470053991 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1712085152896}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1712085152907}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 17120851528... | ["one-piece-stocks", "anime", "manga", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1719822545149 | 1712291134793 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7260747728548965 | usCcwGsMrp1f1OtCCEsP | {"NO": 1076.1174286007658, "YES": 955.7303088167112} | 0.7490283646340264 | will-elon-musk-meet-with-the-sittin | 441.9071131133934 | Will Elon Musk meet with the sitting USA president during the 2025-2029 term? | 1862801940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.593137296140533 | False | basic | public | 1712085175838 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ends when the next president is sworn in", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.6617338996082185, "platformFee": 2.6617338996082185, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1715358204054 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7-95980653688b", "createdTime": 1712085175994}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1712085176005}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR... | ["billionaires", "celebrities", "us-politics", "future-us-presidents", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "us-presidents", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715358200746 | 1714703037931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bC3MYlTojCmqlGbc5DPk | what-countries-will-the-un-stop-rec | 374.5011216497112 | What countries will the UN stop recognizing by 2030 | 1893473940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712085334818 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UN currently recognizes all their members as well as Palestine and the Vatican City. Will they stop recognizing any of these countries?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 480 | JamesF | 1712633443135 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "674c720100af", "prob": 0.1960910241729817, "text": "Palestine", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.34848066173774, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 153.11653842445347, "textFts": "'palestin':1", "contractId": "bC3MYlTojCmqlGbc5DPk", "createdTime": 1712085334818, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712085335055}, {"name": "United Nations", "slug": "united-nations", "groupId": "41b22946-b798-4d04-b362-ff8d88e3b03f", "createdTime": 1712085335066}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVU... | ["world-default", "united-nations", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1712633439914 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EA9kBGkaoikJhjqVf8pg | which-one-of-these-exloona-kpop-act | 105 | Which one of these ex-LOONA kpop acts will be the first to get a win on a music show? | 1893452340000 | r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712085420594 | Heya | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LOONA is/was a kpop girl group under Blockberry Creative. They've de facto disbanded after a series of lawsuits. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Five of the members debuted in Loossemble (under CDTENM).", "type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1960762419175044, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 390 | didnotask | 1717139427492 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKD6YwDz0BXvA0P4THjL3EqrBk7OkI0eSA818c1pS1EvkU=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "9f83305c2310", "prob": 0.01909415134472972, "text": "Loossemble", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.268649433505814, "userId": "r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 219.28930590259387, "textFts": "'loossembl':1", "contractId": "EA9kBGkaoikJhjqVf8pg", "createdTime": 1712085420595, "probChanges": {"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707938205233 | 0 | [{"name": "Kpop", "slug": "kpop-0552df105e38", "groupId": "af4ff318-b9d9-4d4e-9cf3-fc1ab9f04824", "createdTime": 1712085420821}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1712085420819}] | ["kpop-0552df105e38", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.25 | 1717139424245 | 1712086277696 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3637859193582783 | EJsNscUwI8kMK8HIN29q | {"NO": 46.6193451914975, "YES": 1166.0740484841494} | 0 | will-sutton-united-avoid-relegation | 1010 | Will Sutton United avoid relegation from League Two in the 23/24 season? | 1714238937839 | ohGy59WwWqPqZP5XDoCD1AJ7K0k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.426730951854992 | True | play | NO | public | 1712085991224 | Lewy J | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02234942266863382} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9629757579253064, "platformFee": 1.9629757579253064, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714238937839 | 160 | LewyJ | 1714238937839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKNqm1AB8lQYILop3JJTZgZJhosSA4nAnxTrPWs_GBKRw=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712080189771 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712085991374}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713771664318 | 0.02 | ohGy59WwWqPqZP5XDoCD1AJ7K0k2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ADuKnH8YYTtKf5p2iSjW | what-is-the-best-definition-of-agi-f83046d7261f | 0 | What is the best definition of AGI? | 1714719540000 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712086076408 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a preliminary poll for ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "okRRFIPvXRu3p9437RqX", "label": "/singer/what-is-the-best-definition-of-agi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"te... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714719540263 | singer | 1712124671634 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712086076593}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712086076624}] | ["technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1712124669904 | ["cc9138c5fb47"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48072231398858145 | NhBVdRQP8xh2VIUdlwgv | {"NO": 123.23279173236119, "YES": 159.99999999999997} | 0.41623521385446843 | will-there-be-more-than-500000-inst | 20 | Will there be more than 500 000 installed smart meters in Germany by the end of 2023? | 1735685940000 | J4MKd19DkYZsLdx8hyGZzhAjq6E3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712086253984 | Philipp Nagel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The German smart meter rollout has been comparably slow and late. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every year the regulating agency publishes a market overview covering the previous year called the \"Monitoringberic... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | pmn | 1712170593246 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711966338467 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712086254130}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712086254137}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime... | ["technology-default", "world-default", "europe"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712146118780 | 1712170592165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0bbdoNycettJBZBr2sBG | how-many-views-will-3blue1browns-bu | 26041.26774616373 | How many views will 3Blue1Brown's "But what is a GPT? Visual intro to Transformers" video have after 1 month? | 1714574231604 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712086360231 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The popular math YouTuber 3Blue1Brown just released his long awaited video explaining transformers—", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"But what is a GPT? Visual intro to Transformers | Deep learning, chapter 5\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "li... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.618308821750365, "platformFee": 18.618308821750365, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714574231604 | 3685 | Ziddletwix | 1714574278492 | 0 | 66 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "d0084709d6d5", "prob": 1, "text": ">1 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1921.1292791996018, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5580026052082303, "textFts": "'1':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0bbdoNycettJBZBr2sBG", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGk... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1712086360473}, {"name": "Education", "slug": "education", "groupId": "4db0060d-c187-4c1e-9d89-da6482968105", "createdTime": 1712086360472}, {"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d... | ["youtube", "education", "artificial-intelligence", "science-default", "mathematics", "internet-influencers", "ai", "technology-default", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 1714570963389 | 1714574276423 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1913370634159437 | 49MrmJpc1O8ZHYu5lom5 | {"NO": 940.8629551401723, "YES": 1118.224879298322} | 0.16602765495721555 | is-kylie-jenner-pregnant-or-ever-be | 558.6837101059205 | Is Kylie Jenner pregnant or ever be pregnant with Timothée Chalamet's baby? | 1798779540000 | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.744692343609941 | False | basic | public | 1712086408779 | Quantum Gambler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By end of the 2026", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.015244076876564094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3425846922507656, "platformFee": 1.1419996049149623, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mirek | 1718916649744 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644464681678 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712086408966}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712086408965}, {"name": "Kardashians", "slug": "kardashians", "groupId": "7c28d788... | ["culture-default", "entertainment", "kardashians", "world-default", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718916646576 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MJy2I0JI4JBm4KwxdkrW | will-trump-overperform-the-senate-c | 823.8944493991175 | Will Trump Overperform the Senate Candidate in... | 1735707540000 | 1KcfMPDrXJW6E8biWslfDfO49Uz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712086590240 | Jason | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Overperform\" means the winning margin for Trump is larger, or the losing margin for Trump is smaller, than the senate candidate. If Trump overperforms, the question resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.873846403429344, "platformFee": 1.1359314533643619, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Jason1e41 | 1718152824243 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLTl4RLD4QKuTXUMboQr4GVWev7Jx-sNdjfkiObl3MK=s96-c | 14 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "df56711079c5", "prob": 0.9594816896303241, "text": "Ohio (Bernie Moreno)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 294.65326397494107, "userId": "1KcfMPDrXJW6E8biWslfDfO49Uz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.443022655048896, "textFts": "'berni':2 'moreno':3 'ohio':1", "contractId": "MJy2I0JI4JBm4KwxdkrW", "createdTime": 171208... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697554414623 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712086591106}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1712086591107}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "c... | ["politics-default", "magaland", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1718152820304 | 1713920057679 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.41946795587484853 | xrrwRhuVcXYHP8pD3qcG | {"NO": 141.04634734178924, "YES": 307.08240681836537} | 0.24918092702318698 | will-ao3-voluntarily-and-substantia | 130 | Will Archive of Our Own (AO3) voluntarily and substantially tighten their policies toward offensive content before 2030? | 1713883989208 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.4382768227749105 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712086776173 | FinalDestination | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What won't resolve YES: Legally required censorship, changes in policy toward all content, increased requirements for tagging or content warnings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will res... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713883989208 | 200 | FinalDestination | 1713883989208 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbcwJryU_7ebr4G2XN7Qn9ZdwxgpkJQeidLCiE90ak=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705517282671 | 0 | [{"name": "Internet Censorship", "slug": "internet-censorship", "groupId": "xc7qnOtTOi1dJ336sUJe", "createdTime": 1712086776330}, {"name": "Fanfic", "slug": "fanfic", "groupId": "4563a67b-ea6d-45a9-9e4e-2eae10d276e1", "createdTime": 1712086776334}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7... | ["internet-censorship", "fanfic", "internet"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712948191359 | 0.25 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3857829351916854 | mqLOGjlZYpQlOjisc11f | {"NO": 175.31666130203524, "YES": 298.029156559474} | 0.2697934023826362 | will-a-bipedal-robot-run-a-marathon | 95 | Will a bipedal robot run a marathon in under 3 hours before a human runs a marathon in under 2 hours | 2848795140000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712086824892 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The robot can be programmed specifically for the marathon. The human marathon must qualify for a world record", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | JamesF | 1712547555586 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712086825869}, {"name": "Marathon", "slug": "marathon", "groupId": "3kHGQq10DJojhwzoZqob", "createdTime": 1712086825870}] | ["sports-default", "marathon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712547552357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
W80cMTB8WZDGEBGaxIza | warp-question-59d74a16b5a8 | 178 | WARP question | 1712459127802 | dEMHB4lg88gB0WrENj8SzKhLfEy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | c8886ba82f4a | public | 1712087298415 | Aca 792 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712459127802 | 100 | Aca792 | 1712459127802 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIfgec-nMugTvMi7pV_wfmmqHFSCd-OLA8Udjuuz1Kxvw=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "dccbed5faa85", "prob": 0.0009247222076573804, "text": "0-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.2173093945829878, "userId": "dEMHB4lg88gB0WrENj8SzKhLfEy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 234.78233999580266, "textFts": "'-2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "W80cMTB8WZDGEBGaxIza", "resolverId": "dEMHB4lg88gB0WrENj8SzKhLfEy1", "creat... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711812641066 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712087357127 | {"c8886ba82f4a": 100} | dEMHB4lg88gB0WrENj8SzKhLfEy1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13786223968610375 | I940SRPVh9BMVDxbhoUk | {"NO": 118.46041363056247, "YES": 130.00000000000003} | 0.12718113071104684 | will-cyborg-periods-there-will-be-m | 10 | Will "Cyborg Periods: There will be multiple AI tra..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712087440169 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LessWrong | 1712322749253 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712087440471}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712322745884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | Fqhl3C5h6fyyNh7YZLV2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 99.99999999999999} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-varda-space-industries-send-ba | 93.33333333333333 | [CANCELLED] Will Varda Space Industries send back their first shipment of manufactured goods to Earth by end of 2030? | 1712088660221 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7091246347180387 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712087780637 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Varda Space Industries is a privately held American space research company headquartered in El Segundo, California. Founded in November 2020, the company designs, builds, and flies spacecraft that manufacture mate... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712088660221 | 140 | strutheo | 1712089879133 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712087781792}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712087782821}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5L... | ["space-exploration", "technology-default", "science-default", "startups", "rockets", "space", "futurism", "space-colonization", "varda-space-industries", "materials-science"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712088313068 | 1712088638225 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19259142617507197 | dKbseq7kzpMEySkXaHHG | {"NO": 976.3815177661172, "YES": 2742.305228587428} | 0.07827925982327931 | will-i-regret-leaving-manifold | 14899.410409431577 | Will I regret leaving Manifold? | 1775199540000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.647665872244447 | False | basic | public | 1712088253379 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of today, April 2nd, I’ve officially left the Manifold team. I’m stepping down from my executive role, returning my unvested equity, and, yes, giving up my yearly salary of 10 million mana.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0008177751457396909, "week": 0.01842384607896308, "month": -0.005918302102120035} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.83960149363282, "platformFee": 16.8697620253863, "liquidityFee": 0} | 25 | 1215 | Austin | 1720169367200 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 122 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1639011767273 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1712088253566}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712088253565}] | ["personal-decision-in-hindsight", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720169364132 | 1714578992267 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4938005986154163 | hmiUoi7PxiWUCX4olbyz | {"NO": 259.54277699724037, "YES": 54.375522389729} | 0.8232041516458241 | will-manifold-have-numeric-markets | 184 | Will Manifold have numeric markets that work in the same way creatable through the standard web UI at the end of July? | 1722553140000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712088375558 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.183249501585645} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2910992242580175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tetraspace | 1717686480957 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712088375742}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717686477694 | 1716609186058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
598jpOWmKBP90FBEEI6E | how-many-of-my-soccer-markets-will | 392.78993893480043 | How many of my soccer markets will attract at least 20 bettors during April 2024 ⚽? | 1714535940000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 5d5abc64bb08 | public | 1712088809271 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a creator of soccer prediction markets, reaching a threshold of 20 bettors is not just a number—it's a milestone where the market begins to generate profitability and, importantly, indicates a high level of engagement and interest. This market c... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715131241048 | 235 | FranklinBaldo | 1714535940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5d5abc64bb08", "prob": 0.08583123062317893, "text": "0-10", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.487780302884442, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 122.35371561273091, "textFts": "'-10':2 '0':1", "contractId": "598jpOWmKBP90FBEEI6E", "resolverId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "creat... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712088809526}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1712088809524}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9x... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "metamarkets", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 1713298965245 | 1715131224745 | {"5d5abc64bb08": 100} | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3002401675127573 | HIbhuUkaaExiH3H2IZuo | {"NO": 485.39018704090927, "YES": 5094.008526870197} | 0 | will-someone-make-a-physical-manifo | 4727.369178561222 | Will someone make a physical Manifold Countdown To AGI clock before July? | 1719903540000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.041443439610326 | True | basic | NO | public | 1712088853507 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Behold, our new ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold AI page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 ac... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.14250299708454786, "month": -0.24002779609496164} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.48411899840467, "platformFee": 0.6084777408944939, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719935577853 | 1000 | ManifoldAI | 1719903540000 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711068181629 | 0 | [{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1712088853656}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712088853653}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "cr... | ["manifest", "ai", "technology-default", "ai-safety", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719893401938 | 1719935489927 | 0.04 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp | what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad | 121551.93408674926 | 🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1715928300000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.403281794570521 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712088968142 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Austin's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "farewell ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 283.70356015151265, "platformFee": 283.70356015151265, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718127708185 | 33420 | strutheo | 1715928300000 | 0 | 234 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cc802209ad52", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Crypto / blockchain", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.822505601380612, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1075.1366099117995, "textFts": "'blockchain':2 'crypto':1", "contractId": "iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0c... | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712088984070}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712088986109}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "pivot-predictions", "spice"] | 0.25 | 1715856800687 | 1716970379158 | 0.5 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | False | prob-desc | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5870004253195824 | uDO6B8GntSmE5mzpjQvn | {"NO": 221.58624918570618, "YES": 115.51352457877033} | 0.7316486460208198 | will-i-use-my-chosen-name-at-work-b | 66.19131671036409 | Will I use my chosen name at work before June? | 1712152096904 | gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.088019194722244 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712089146641 | Clark 🐶 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It should be socially easy to make this switch (supportive employer and colleagues). On the other hand, it is logistically tiresome (maybe less so IRL than I'm mentally making it out to be).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardB... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712152096904 | 160 | Clark | 1712166623977 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701801194821 | 0 | [{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1712089146795}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1712089146799}] | ["trans-questions", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712127645358 | 1712166623367 | 0.73 | gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
U7kaidzLUbmRDvnxLmVd | which-problem-will-be-fixed-first-m | 208.72585992147415 | Which problem will be *fixed* first: microplastics or global warming? | 2524712340000 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712089357046 | VerySeriousPoster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're going to use a generous definition of \"fixed\" here that is closer to \"stops getting worse.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for considering the problem \"fixed\"", "type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.35880366871871555, "platformFee": 0.35880366871871555, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VerySeriousPoster | 1720053161621 | 0 | 10 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d205711ed900", "prob": 0.42409238340030725, "text": "Micro plastics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 431.42836676370524, "userId": "wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 585.8697117930922, "textFts": "'micro':1 'plastic':2", "contractId": "U7kaidzLUbmRDvnxLmVd", "createdTime": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681990719923 | 0 | 0.25 | 1714469550121 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7230526059010495 | Mwq70weoaiZw6O9ogzPE | {"NO": 1174.4552157561263, "YES": 131.00210916642365} | 1 | will-it-be-cloudy-in-san-antonio-du | 959 | Will it be cloudy in San Antonio during the eclipse on April 8th? | 1712691079094 | cIoheNqS7vTqwWDhd6v9Rdj3efp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.066536274222826 | True | play | YES | public | 1712090474887 | jla | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve yes if at least one local or major news station or weather website says that it was cloudy during the eclipse, or that it was not visible generally, from the San Antonio area.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.053224156176086335} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712691079094 | 280 | jla | 1712691079094 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1686881356058 | 0 | [{"name": "Eclipse", "slug": "eclipse", "groupId": "4bd0a32d-97da-4479-8fd0-43d0d5a7a63c", "createdTime": 1712090475335}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712090475340}, {"name": "Astronomy", "slug": "astronomy", "groupId": "RmJECKggoxP8lVO7JADZ", "cre... | ["eclipse", "science-default", "astronomy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712690738451 | 1712684824142 | 0.96 | cIoheNqS7vTqwWDhd6v9Rdj3efp2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jwxlyXyLfZAub3qg3QUL | what-will-be-austins-next-major-end | 368.04986685732274 | What will be Austin's next major endeavor? | 1767243540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712090679704 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Austin's announcement:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1712828418603 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f000b5bb16ee", "prob": 0.329424495655943, "text": "Working in an AI related company/project", "index": 0, "poolNo": 76.97472112599928, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 156.68950889043853, "textFts": "'ai':4 'company/project':6 'relat':5 'work':1", "contractId": "jwxlyXyLfZ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712828415111 | 1712797960235 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3437816424157463 | tzTUNLWZKWlqXRhNkmtf | {"NO": 639.5128301002947, "YES": 2300.482598558688} | 0.12712134761633376 | will-2024-be-the-final-manifest | 2381.3462323872664 | Will 2024 be the final Manifest? | 1767243540000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.771653435900923 | False | basic | public | 1712090743505 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will I regret leaving Manifold?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold?r=bWF0dHli", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underl... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.21091441756644308} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.62578604958515, "platformFee": 2.820643879672117, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mattyb | 1718985065732 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTime": 1712090743680}, {"name": "2025", "slug": "2025", "groupId": "06377b94-95d9-432d-b80b-78ec353716b6", "createdTime": 1712090743683}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hz... | ["manifest-2024", "2025", "manifold-6748e065087e", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "manifest", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718985062597 | 1718043514033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3020848122883124 | I3LA7F4cgaGE0cq1Psu4 | {"NO": 208.40264845005433, "YES": 364.99999999999994} | 0.19816304944999022 | will-austin-return-to-working-for-m | 105 | Will Austin return to working for Manifold before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712090761354 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Austin's announcement:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | AmmonLam | 1712144358656 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712090761519}, {"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1712090761518}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-b... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-adoption", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712144355388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18195156855722244 | PpL6vilMlod9SPfF2Ci9 | {"NO": 932.1582869846708, "YES": 1186.0411040930207} | 0.14879865722267302 | by-the-end-of-2028-will-any-of-the | 278.7294565768504 | By the end of 2028, will any of the Merriam-Webster Word of the Year finalists be AI-generated? | 1862035140000 | iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.77782548602707 | False | basic | public | 1712090978489 | Dominic de Bettencourt | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The word must clearly have an AI-generated origin, and cannot simply be relating to AI (eg “GPT” or something would not count).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20796144835150682, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dominic | 1717284934763 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669151730101 | 0 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1712090978642}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712090978633}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "creat... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "ai-impacts"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717284931397 | 1712098895487 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QSkfq50p87OOg4X8yE3G | who-will-be-the-englands-team-top-g | 0 | Who will be the England’s team top goalscorer at Euro 2024? | 1712091040870 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712090981130 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712091040870 | 100 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1712091040870 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "605966e0bc6e", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "Harry Kane", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'harri':1 'kane':2", "contractId": "QSkfq50p87OOg4X8yE3G", "resolverId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "createdTime": 1712090981130... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | True | 0 | [{"name": "England", "slug": "england", "groupId": "cc7389f8-7744-4033-bad2-af569b78139d", "createdTime": 1712090981382}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1712090981385}, {"name": "Euros 2024", "slug": "euros-2024", "groupId": "yPULnjpON1JQRT0FTlEL", "createdTime": 1712... | ["england", "uefa", "euros-2024", "soccer", "united-kingdom", "football"] | 0.25 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b0215M0mUtRinrktlyB6 | what-will-happen-to-austins-mana-st | 20 | What will happen to Austin's Mana stored at @NinthCause? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712091005698 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | AmmonLam | 1712112284436 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f0108165d74f", "prob": 0.5, "text": "It will largely remain in @NinthCause throughout 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'2024':8 'larg':3 'ninthcaus':6 'remain':4 'throughout':7", "contractId": "b0215M0mUtRinrktlyB6", "create... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712112281149 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XNapOB3NYkvDRpx0vn0X | who-will-be-the-englands-team-top-g-424c85153a13 | 1716.8044811778045 | Who will be the England’s team top goalscorer at EURO 2024? | 1721253540000 | M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712091218184 | Łukasz Bartoszcze | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.78757857861087, "platformFee": 2.726921930460088, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ukaszBartoszcze | 1719973523584 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | 23 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5ad79e3ec8d9", "prob": 0.6875785454754356, "text": "Harry Kane", "index": 0, "poolNo": 507.83378730097445, "userId": "M3uY3RCz0jSXiiXrMJx8oD4SHJo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 230.7491580843062, "textFts": "'harri':1 'kane':2", "contractId": "XNapOB3NYkvDRpx0vn0X", "createdTime": 1712091218184, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708276167391 | 0 | [{"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1712091218470}, {"name": "United Kingdom", "slug": "united-kingdom", "groupId": "c5bf9671-57a6-4372-a23a-601bcdc30f42", "createdTime": 1712091218477}, {"name": "England", "slug": "england", "groupId": "cc7389f8-7744-4033-bad2-af569b7813... | ["uefa", "united-kingdom", "england", "soccer", "sports-default", "euros-2024"] | 0.25 | 1719973520282 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5616618563637148 | vs6hLQgmIRhQR3MK3JW9 | {"NO": 1020.528271418686, "YES": 979.1524641905398} | 0.571824184710759 | will-nato-approve-100b-to-ukraine-b | 524.9995073770062 | Will NATO approve $100B to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.729936077134683 | False | basic | public | 1712091377519 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/nato-proposes-100-billion-five-year-fund-to-support-ukraine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004178755363260511} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3590147666206973, "platformFee": 3.065462517676236, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718932440588 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1712091377667}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1712091377678}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTim... | ["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "nato", "geopolitics", "news", "russia", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718932437475 | 1718302881438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5587033242210343 | 0JL0buTeqmRRtLZat1CP | {"NO": 229.99999999999997, "YES": 145.8265145620733} | 0.6663145054248015 | will-another-core-staff-leave-manif | 50 | Will another core staff leave Manifold before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712091485541 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Austin announced his departure from Manifold on April 2nd, 2024. Will another core Manifold staff leave Manifold before the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | AmmonLam | 1714101519183 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712091485694}, {"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1712091485710}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-b... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-adoption", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712350499585 | 1714101518525 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6078641764884398 | gOVZsSzOh8v1lO1AC9ET | {"NO": 319.4479401581027, "YES": 167.35155925740952} | 0.7474089603233052 | will-another-core-staff-leave-manif-6a7b153aeb2d | 100 | Will another core staff leave Manifold before the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712091500735 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Austin announced his departure from Manifold on April 2nd, 2024. Will another core Manifold staff leave Manifold before the end of 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004843293500331525} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.31987301189366724, "platformFee": 0.23218683000357984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | AmmonLam | 1719204562710 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712091500887}, {"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1712091500881}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-feature... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-adoption", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719204559559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mpVzNCeFmEnL7QHx3jyj | when-will-github-reinstate-the-tuka | 2629.825153251435 | When will GitHub reinstate the tukaani-project/xz repository? | 1712730154027 | R0COofz8D5QeHZoiLthVHpiZ06o1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | bec255d09a82 | public | 1712091821198 | qqii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently it was discovered that a backdoor was smuggled into ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://research.swtch.com/xz-timeline", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712730154027 | 850 | qqii | 1712730154027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIcJPqulneykTVmQv7H2ZEfXxFIe6JJmyDcfR4ie8GA09fv=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "9fc60257fb88", "prob": 0.02936199166045317, "text": "Tuesday 02 April", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.4310730115813, "userId": "R0COofz8D5QeHZoiLthVHpiZ06o1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 443.9995116333708, "textFts": "'02':2 'april':3 'tuesday':1", "contractId": "mpVzNCeFmEnL7QHx3jyj", "resolverId": "R0COofz8D5QeH... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702670644777 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1712091821459}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1712091821462}, {"name": "xz backdoor", "slug": "xz-backdoor", "groupId": "9783564a-abd8-45d8-8581-d002f4196cf2", "crea... | ["programming", "github", "xz-backdoor", "technology-default", "cybersecurity"] | 0.25 | 1712729584100 | 1712730129746 | {"bec255d09a82": 100} | R0COofz8D5QeHZoiLthVHpiZ06o1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5171631599654327 | bMlHZjfCjg10OadAXgsi | {"NO": 108.25972010654823, "YES": 11479.666620681746} | 0 | will-the-manifold-pivot-be-announce | 23849.78505411288 | Will Manifold's big pivot be announced by the end of April 19th? | 1713585540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2223801521262248 | True | basic | NO | public | 1712091851896 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Austin's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "farewell ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01000000000000005} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.23003326562554, "platformFee": 27.23003326562554, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713585841526 | 1335 | strutheo | 1713585540000 | 0 | 109 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712091852053}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712091852055}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25ba... | ["manifold-users", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "metamarkets", "manifold-6748e065087e", "startups"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713585164369 | 1713517459135 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23133098418550743 | CSJbratv0an1qrrKutp4 | {"NO": 816.4863689405363, "YES": 1804.2006623314642} | 0 | will-apple-mention-google-or-gemini | 7309.840389401206 | Will Apple mention "Google" or "Gemini" at WWDC 2024 (if an AI partnership is announced between Apple and Google)? | 1718071988983 | exGku4sbZlaMlGxqC4V9YtzXdC63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.727974465412526 | True | basic | NO | public | 1712092509266 | Forester Christensen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumours about the upcoming WWDC Apple Event suggest that Apple may announce an AI partnership with Google to implement their use of their proprietary model \"Gemini\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15429322677053664} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.3587467572562, "platformFee": 2.5716466538997094, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718071988983 | 1000 | ForesterChristensen | 1718071988983 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocICLsIGbkYiHYmLl-H4bWiH7bI_5EoJt38_wQ9UTrotmII=s96-c | 31 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704193803272 | 0 | [{"name": "WWDC", "slug": "wwdc", "groupId": "f2674ed3-04ca-4aa9-9a0c-bc94cfce5c01", "createdTime": 1712092509418}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1712092509425}, {"name": "Google Gemini", "slug": "google-gemini", "groupId": "m7v1GlEs2JcFyqdvUbuN", "c... | ["wwdc", "google-ef2cf716540e", "google-gemini", "-wwdc-2024", "apple", "openai", "podcasts", "ai", "chatgpt", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718071483660 | 1718071587531 | 0.12 | exGku4sbZlaMlGxqC4V9YtzXdC63 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UJm0s75xiMCGaMjMijAc | -how-many-gold-medals-will-brazil-w | 61.3534054642581 | 🏅🇧🇷 How many gold medals will Brazil win in the 2024 Olympics? | 1723521540000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712092525103 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market seeks to predict the total number of gold medals Brazil will secure at the 2024 Olympic Games. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historically, Brazil achieved its best performance a... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.843658762912983, "platformFee": 0.23456569579919678, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | FranklinBaldo | 1718933967157 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "935a397ced35", "prob": 0.02903291620315171, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.2779637723128587, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 109.62711780392283, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "UJm0s75xiMCGaMjMijAc", "createdTime": 1712092525103, "probChanges": {"day": 0... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1712092525346}, {"name": "Paris 2024", "slug": "paris-2024", "groupId": "a52dcbc5-b87d-4c85-86d4-037eda43d4c7", "createdTime": 1712092525350}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", ... | ["olympics", "paris-2024", "brazil-3292d24d179f"] | 0.25 | 1718933964035 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IZSpDb49ntCkKwz59W4A | are-you-mechanism-geek-or-random-sp | 0 | Are you "mechanism geek" or "random speculator"? | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712092774854 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">>> The community feels less and less like “my people”. Less of the weird mechanism geeks, more random speculation I don’t enjoy. (It’s a bit how I imagine Vitalik feels about the degen gamblers who now characterize crypto.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AmmonLam | 1712092954716 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712092952528 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bvmQCDhHQEn1BOeTrQQt | is-capturing-peoples-attention-and | 0 | Is "capturing people’s attention and gets them addicted" currently a big part of Manifold? | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712092946730 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | AmmonLam | 1712118426091 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712118425540 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pVJysoUPCEmsUV8dU5v7 | will-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-manifo | 1166.8396493523621 | Who will be the next CEO of manifold? | 1712149152510 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712093055645 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "add reasonable answers, ill remove dupes, if already known but I haven't seen the info, will NA", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CEO = meaningful leader in effect, actually doing work. i.e. Elo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712149152510 | 455 | Ernie | 1712149161066 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "471d601373f5", "prob": 0.8403078268493236, "text": "James", "index": 0, "poolNo": 252.55440670213326, "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.995461611087904, "textFts": "'jame':1", "contractId": "pVJysoUPCEmsUV8dU5v7", "resolverId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "createdTim... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712093055857}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712093055865}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1712148640544 | 1712149160627 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jckxd9M6ARwcVAuLZuoo | when-will-an-be-artificial-agent-be | 98.42270887602834 | When will an artificial agent be appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company? [10 years bulk] | 4102462740000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712093381716 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | FranklinBaldo | 1712518342756 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b98f2c22c2e0", "prob": 0.14298806717556534, "text": "2024-2034", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.313057953181799, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 91.78019993651283, "textFts": "'-2034':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "Jckxd9M6ARwcVAuLZuoo", "createdTime": 1712093381716, "probChanges"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712093382232}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712093382234}, {"name": "AI in S&P500 Board of Directors", "slug": "ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors", "groupId": "fb8909c9-6edc-407... | ["ai", "stocks", "ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors"] | 0.25 | 1712518338357 | 1712158551638 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2786318477473506 | dUTM2GjiJEuVzBIiHYgM | {"NO": 150.3693919072214, "YES": 964.7908875155313} | 0 | will-reddit-nyse-rddt-close-higher-46fa0fa98878 | 1397.4670422380718 | Will Reddit (NYSE: RDDT) close higher Apr 3 than Apr 2? | 1712172600000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8818805189146033 | True | play | NO | public | 1712093677442 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05678217703365596} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712176280071 | 300 | KeenenW | 1712172600000 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1712093677840}, {"name": "NASDAQ", "slug": "nasdaq", "groupId": "d3aaa6d9-84fa-42e5-9053-690f91a51220", "createdTime": 1712093677845}, {"name": "NYSE", "slug": "nyse", "groupId": "d3a9c972-8f8e-42fb-bb8e-e3d30bdca916", "cr... | ["tech-stocks", "nasdaq", "nyse", "finance", "reddit", "stocks", "rddt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712170725737 | 0.06 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6644282157885959 | KocgtXecBHC1fTWXfK9h | {"NO": 1884.4979249046999, "YES": 146.6567840057225} | 1 | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b34fab3af075 | 1823.2953753258757 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 3 than Apr 2? | 1712172600000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.552452510514272 | True | play | YES | public | 1712093737650 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03781821233516269} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712176208044 | 420 | KeenenW | 1712172600000 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1712093737855}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712093737851}, {"name": "AAPL", "slug": "aapl", "groupId": "2b9a9be2-80c3-4e15-860a-55fbe48b31f5", "createdTime": 1... | ["tech-stocks", "stocks", "aapl", "apple", "ai-stocks", "nasdaq"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712170644716 | 0.96 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5230736785998671 | 883nvQY6Unpj6y2rrJr8 | {"NO": 622.7149239372351, "YES": 204.6708816381885} | 0 | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-30906bb00f44 | 517.0239805254076 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher Apr 3 than Apr 2? | 1712172600000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0830911993254357 | True | play | NO | public | 1712093786510 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.7694212061502784} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712176151805 | 360 | KeenenW | 1712172600000 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1712093786661}, {"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1712093786668}, {"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdT... | ["tech-stocks", "ai-stocks", "nvidia", "nasdaq", "nvda", "gpu", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712169955821 | 0.77 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c9cUp4nkrrtvbOcx64Y0 | when-will-an-be-artificial-agent-be-b6b6c7ed5caa | 76.06716066993913 | When will an artificial agent be appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company? [2 years bulk] | 4102462740000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712093791576 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You may also have interest in : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Jckxd9M6ARwcVAuLZuoo", "label": "/FranklinBaldo/when-will-an-be-artificial-agent-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "tex... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3261655769677129, "platformFee": 0.3261655769677129, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | FranklinBaldo | 1714490551539 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6863c79b1e3f", "prob": 0.015499835281977877, "text": "2024-2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6230075059010918, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.08826692862218, "textFts": "'-2026':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "c9cUp4nkrrtvbOcx64Y0", "createdTime": 1712093791576, "probChange... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712093792121}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712093792127}, {"name": "AI in S&P500 Board of Directors", "slug": "ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors", "groupId": "fb8909c9-6edc-407... | ["ai", "stocks", "ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors"] | 0.25 | 1714490547508 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8508320133609575 | XlpazZZJPW6kIvKVQndH | {"NO": 6857.415202793228, "YES": 395.0876420837667} | 1 | will-manifold-pivot-before-the-fed | 6881.3200151782075 | Will Manifold pivot before the Fed? | 1713827214794 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.332986262819912 | True | play | YES | public | 1712095157418 | Chris Billington | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold apparently has a \"pivot\" in the works.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold's change of direction be publicly announced before the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.036704028898036034} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9731104540410347, "platformFee": 2.9731104540410347, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713827214794 | 640 | chrisjbillington | 1713827214794 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671703032816 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712095157582}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712095157585}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "gr... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "economics-default", "manifold-business-future", "federal-reserve"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713825640420 | 1712133717083 | 0.99 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ak8M1HcbryJlMWBDfwtU | tesla-vehicle-production-and-delive-8bc819fd410b | 7809.159667286513 | Tesla Vehicle production and deliveries Q2 2024 | 1719926228705 | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1712095367723 | Christopher Randles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last seven quarters:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Q3 2022 ", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.76488202002754, "platformFee": 8.231823216621072, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719926228705 | 1000 | ChristopherRandles | 1719926228705 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | 16 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "69574e4de8c0", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Deliveries over 450,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.62974998330759, "userId": "KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1844.3452483474482, "textFts": "'000':4 '450':3 'deliveri':1", "contractId": "ak8M1HcbryJlMWBDfwtU", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1683475207934 | 0 | [{"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712095367966}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1712095367983}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime"... | ["business", "automotive", "cars", "tesla", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 1719925360587 | 1719925433378 | 0.01 | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | False | alphabetical | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A8rpbH1mllPKXPrMDXm9 | what-will-the-next-alen-beckar-anim | 408.43473174904136 | What will the next "Alen Beckar" animation be about? | 1716901767799 | hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712095388990 | TheOrigamiCrane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alen Beckar is a youtube animator who creates amazing worlds based around a set of stick figures. His most known series is Aminations VS Minecraft, a series involving the stick figures adventuring through the world of minecraft animated. I highly r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.05899272212974, "platformFee": 2.210955171842729, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716901767799 | 270 | TheOrigamiCrane | 1716901767799 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7167be26b11c", "prob": 0.38, "text": "Animation VS animator", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.778154304254734, "userId": "hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.37498205962186, "textFts": "'anim':1,3 'vs':2", "contractId": "A8rpbH1mllPKXPrMDXm9", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hiKAgumJpIeC... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709212589408 | 0 | [{"name": "Channel Reconition", "slug": "channel-reconition", "groupId": "2b48a730-0e09-4684-9c4a-916db561286e", "createdTime": 1712095389209}, {"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1712095389212}, {"name": "Cartoons & Animations", "slug": "cartoons-animation... | ["channel-reconition", "social-media", "cartoons-animations", "youtube"] | 0.25 | 1716641293032 | 1716651520810 | 0.17 | hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4657534246575342 | x3EkZh5kt4DM8O1TfbDK | {"NO": 86.66666666666667, "YES": 170} | 0.30769230769230765 | will-any-of-nasas-canoo-crew-transp | 50 | Will any of NASA's Canoo Crew Transportation Vehicles (CTVs) fail during operation or no longer be utilised by 2028? | 1830383940000 | xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712095934518 | IY | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | vitamind | 1712111426928 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687797971742 | 0 | [{"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712095934676}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712095934678}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime... | ["space", "space-exploration", "spacex"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712111423695 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SmugDMYo2d7oLhZShdlo | would-you-have-sex-with-a-robot | 0 | Would you have sex with a robot? | 1733201940000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712096499304 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume the robot is a full human body sized and at least attempts to simulate lifelike experiences, even if not perfect", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contr... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1717014235182 | 0 | 542 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz", "createdTime": 1712096556176}, {"name": "Love", "slug": "love", "groupId": "0523af53-e688-479a-94e2-f24516eb875c", "createdTime": 1712096558184}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 17... | ["sex", "love", "sex-and-love", "robotics", "ai", "futurism", "technology-default", "science-default", "society-people", "public-opinion"] | 0.25 | 1717014233374 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06691849346616979 | yLr1Gqxpmta5gYbt6P5r | {"NO": 876.2512703482386, "YES": 2262.488297098662} | 0.027025294933920117 | will-genderaffirming-hormone-therap | 1519.5397166752648 | Will gender-affirming hormone therapy be routinely applied to dogs in 2030? | 1924988340000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712097367440 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Transgender and gender nonconforming dogs are currently confined to the sex they were assigned at birth. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the market to resolve YES, there must be at least ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-17, "week": -1.734723475976807e-17, "month": -1.734723475976807e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.04905033843007519, "platformFee": 0.04905033843007519, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lukres | 1713899959876 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1712097367592}, {"name": "🏳️🌈 LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1712097367615}, {"name": "Animal welfare", "slug": "animal-welfare", "groupId": "WisHKhsr75W2WZjoYMiy", "created... | ["medicine", "lgbtqia", "animal-welfare"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713899956505 | 1712160574871 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3047256069432132 | 1PBheAOUd4QU5TSOmWxh | {"NO": 140.80781104996612, "YES": 5743.132328971} | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-735k-in-april-2024 | 11510.352722324982 | Will Bitcoin hit $73.5K in April 2024? | 1714535940000 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712097714820 | Crypto Cat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.601780837754465, "platformFee": 19.601780837754465, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714542480257 | 660 | CCat | 1714535940000 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697489244545 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712097714959}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712097714956}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "cr... | ["crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "bitcoin", "catcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714496820118 | 0.01 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8064761134244207 | Hlh1XeVydaw0pBYvFgvS | {"NO": 34515.320663898485, "YES": 227.97797901452213} | 1 | will-bitcoin-hit-71k-in-april-2024 | 38001.526550711154 | Will Bitcoin hit $71K in April 2024? | 1712572951290 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6216993079025768 | True | play | YES | public | 1712097758506 | Crypto Cat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010385443367098013} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712572951290 | 680 | CCat | 1712572951290 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697489244545 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712097758660}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712097758666}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "create... | ["economics-default", "bitcoin-maxi", "finance", "catcoin", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712572936385 | 1712572860166 | 1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8186364498062414 | 49P64CfRGB6sgKKlb1Um | {"NO": 5890.924279751278, "YES": 170.7774339733446} | 1 | will-bitcoin-hit-69k-in-april-2024 | 8324.274854447856 | Will Bitcoin hit $69K in April 2024? | 1712270813083 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4295196773332766 | True | play | YES | public | 1712097778307 | Crypto Cat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01165992578310271} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712270813083 | 360 | CCat | 1712270813083 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697489244545 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712097778450}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712097778455}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "created... | ["bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "crypto-speculation", "catcoin", "economics-default", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712270803336 | 1712256088610 | 0.99 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.818081842641424 | EdI1jkAgWA9yGqavEVWH | {"NO": 12216.649398157984, "YES": 241.9256070736853} | 1 | will-bitcoin-hit-695k-in-april-2024 | 14957.885389986925 | Will Bitcoin hit $69.5K in April 2024? | 1712521065498 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6645192067821548 | True | play | YES | public | 1712097988096 | Crypto Cat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004384304994292987} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712521065498 | 540 | CCat | 1712521065498 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697489244545 | 0 | [{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712097988244}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712097988246}, {"name": "Catcoin", "slug": "catcoin", "groupId": "fc36b769-7921-4a2c-836d-aa4df910e0cd", "crea... | ["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin", "catcoin", "economics-default", "crypto-speculation", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712482701398 | 1712474886534 | 1 | R1mAD1swLeaUdTeyVxvGqx7gYz13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32288024637051854 | k3FHqN15DOmtYnp4nCDm | {"NO": 69.21372368590782, "YES": 382.25160635114196} | 0.07947903274064219 | if-trump-is-elected-potus-in-2024-w-8a2c1d837da7 | 433 | If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026? | 1714715940000 | uIyiItyMUgfkg62dFxpKBFc6Xpo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712098522449 | Wade Ramsey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.008343165892550165, "platformFee": 0.008343165892550165, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | WadeRamsey | 1714711964524 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697563978347 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712098522681}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712098522685}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714711961251 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7217087102343258 | 8BfzFEGdt48AvaePobyK | {"NO": 4839.481703945875, "YES": 126.77277324422472} | 1 | will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-announc | 5109.464315548475 | Will Manifold's big pivot be announced by the end of May? | 1714137535266 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.929777728375206 | True | play | YES | public | 1712098897068 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Austin's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "farewell ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.29602697874664, "platformFee": 5.29602697874664, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714137535266 | 420 | Bayesian | 1714137535266 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712098897262}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712098897249}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "grou... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "metamarkets", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713825608509 | 1714136325134 | 0.99 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5170106764271555 | 4KhtXjhRx0dHzo2aCNE0 | {"NO": 397.81103805707977, "YES": 173.6590819163007} | 0.7103227376197586 | is-the-giant-straw-hat-in-mary-geoi | 259.99999999999994 | Is the giant straw hat in Mary Geoise related to the iron giant in Egghead? | 1735685940000 | PpbF5NuIgBV8q8MC8ktfY8cRDef1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712099532144 | Fast YES/NO One Piece | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Is the giant straw hat shown in chapter 906 related to the giant robot or its creator(s)? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.8975661143947917, "platformFee": 1.8975661143947917, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | FYNOP | 1715753798491 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707774054436 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1712099532292}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1712099532295}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "crea... | ["manga", "anime", "one-piece-theories", "robotics", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715753795207 | 1715391596375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1260114097101313 | qt9M4Q79xLtRW4JBitHQ | {"NO": 954.4482486471121, "YES": 913.2952712563246} | 0.13094595012706378 | will-there-be-a-fully-autonomous-co | 878 | Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030 | 1893473940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.446123407023663 | False | basic | public | 1712100263981 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the airplane have taken off and landed free of any human help with paying passengers on board.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0025580907034918055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.44390109218222, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1719212927748 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Air travel", "slug": "air-travel", "groupId": "b80a6ba2-b2c2-4f89-838d-1cc0af750b85", "createdTime": 1712100264129}, {"name": "Airline Industry", "slug": "airline-industry", "groupId": "eqI8kRHGi03K4BRnImPH", "createdTime": 1712100264131}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "... | ["air-travel", "airline-industry", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719212924689 | 1712573039340 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ekrSGk2ckFbEUP1YssVv | how-many-volumes-will-daemons-of-th | 19.999999999999975 | How many volumes will Daemons of the Shadow Realm finish with? | 2082776340000 | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712100651450 | Alyssa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of this market's creation, Daemons of the Shadow Realm, the currently-ongoing manga series by Arakawa Hiromu (known for her prior work as the creator of Fullmetal Alchemist), has had six volumes released. (Three in English.) How many do... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tulip | 1712121726122 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_S1biLuCg60Z2_YY6AP1AB96QvecyAjv40j_2EHQ=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "2c9f9fb8aea5", "prob": 0.029284587425616796, "text": "6-7", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.5400258767083324, "userId": "Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.04824707130627, "textFts": "'-7':2 '6':1", "contractId": "ekrSGk2ckFbEUP1YssVv", "createdTime": 1712100651451, "probChanges": {"day": 1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663717371895 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712100651745}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1712100651784}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "created... | ["entertainment", "fiction", "manga"] | 0.25 | 1712121721397 | 1712121705600 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZM5pARdvwm1TzIi15gOZ | which-countries-will-stop-being-com | 389.6997874266707 | Which countries will stop being "communist" by 2040? | 2209006740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712100900904 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It resolves based on this wikipedia article ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communist_states", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communist_states"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0673961951922404, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1718724504143 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "54fc44de5380", "prob": 0.1951729843470937, "text": "China", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.50163387760728, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 200.00424433016997, "textFts": "'china':1", "contractId": "ZM5pARdvwm1TzIi15gOZ", "createdTime": 1712100900904, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1712100901113}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712100901116}, {"name": "Communism", "slug": "communism", "groupId": "de415ac0-ca6c-43c3-8000-0ccc230e9c09", "create... | ["china", "world-default", "communism"] | 0.25 | 1718724501073 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.504066653441777 | CH9JlfzjvnslQGA0YkOi | {"NO": 115.18075722081163, "YES": 124.89724637083512} | 0.4838252204505933 | will-a-ciconia-when-they-cry-manga | 15 | Will a Ciconia: When They Cry manga adaptation begin by the end of 2030? | 1925009940000 | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712101400880 | Alyssa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Higurashi: When They Cry began being released as a visual novel in 2002; its manga adaptation began serialization in 2005. Umineko: When They Cry began being released as a visual novel in 2007, and its manga adaptation began in 2007 as well. Ciconi... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.17042443363006, "platformFee": 0.17042443363006, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Tulip | 1714629183214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_S1biLuCg60Z2_YY6AP1AB96QvecyAjv40j_2EHQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663717371895 | 0 | [{"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1712101401018}, {"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1712101401021}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": ... | ["release-dates", "fiction", "entertainment", "when-they-cry-c276372520a5", "manga", "07th-expansion", "ciconia-when-they-cry"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714629179975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QOuZW2ZqBMeFJLYlE2Om | what-drugs-will-be-made-to-be-sched | 125 | What drugs will be made to be schedule 1 by 2030 | 1893473940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712101774437 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves based on official us policy", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | JamesF | 1712593186262 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "872ca04c83fe", "prob": 0.12591745480501637, "text": "Fentanyl", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.728553598851768, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 150.8333333333334, "textFts": "'fentanyl':1", "contractId": "QOuZW2ZqBMeFJLYlE2Om", "createdTime": 1712101774437, "probChanges": {"day... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1712101774647}, {"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", "createdTime": 1712101774656}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime":... | ["health", "drug-policy", "drugs"] | 0.25 | 1712593182960 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4491050323955179 | staJJ5tuwc8Ah63qAXmG | {"NO": 4274.659068003328, "YES": 35.20022215654478} | 1 | will-bitcoin-drop-below-60000-befor | 11456.558183012387 | Will Bitcoin drop below $60000 before the end of April 2024? | 1713445929412 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.406846242118457 | True | play | YES | public | 1712102262543 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3259082791098661} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 79.10939236711368, "platformFee": 79.10939236711368, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713445929412 | 540 | AmmonLam | 1713446368590 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "createdTime": 1712102262695}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712102262698}] | ["bitcoin-maxi", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713445916525 | 1713446367715 | 0.99 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pzsPJ92AOfJLTXV8oxus | what-countries-will-decriminalize-o | 964.5847448814857 | What countries will decriminalize or legalize weed by 2030 | 1893473940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712102349007 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For recreational use", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.389863891797277, "platformFee": 0.8548237884555197, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | JamesF | 1719829079721 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 23 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d2b86ddbea98", "prob": 0.3800000000000001, "text": "France", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.05590499921223, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 146.93331868292515, "textFts": "'franc':1", "contractId": "pzsPJ92AOfJLTXV8oxus", "createdTime": 1712102349007, "probChanges": {"day": 1.1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", "createdTime": 1712102349218}, {"name": "weed", "slug": "weed", "groupId": "b918750e-1b23-4223-8f0a-e4d83fcacc7b", "createdTime": 1712102349220}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTi... | ["drug-policy", "weed", "world-default", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719829076586 | 1719692977631 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5496830516182218 | UPENtNE0knTym3tf0Uee | {"NO": 1199.1842668429006, "YES": 62.17339416591632} | 1 | will-positive-mop-market-prediction | 1179.9387501131118 | Will positive MOP market predictions all be accurate? | 1713566728755 | 3oukOT538uNC2icQRCn9fkuWVKG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.192057818148377 | True | play | YES | public | 1712102436093 | Pseudonymous Bosch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if every \"will I make MOP\" market with over 80% YES percentage ends up resolving YES. There's five right now (including mine):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.040743591628500275} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.750805144090519, "platformFee": 5.750805144090519, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713566728755 | 260 | PseudonymousBosche24f | 1713566728755 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3CX9YCbowSku9aiQ7U_aAzcGuk026jr6hZNTRmkhp8w=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706744508044 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1712102436293}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1712102436290}] | ["competition-math", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713563834430 | 1712123038158 | 0.96 | 3oukOT538uNC2icQRCn9fkuWVKG2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CEYhvFYtunrccBBjlRLr | what-will-be-the-most-downloaded-mo | 113.66506130040239 | What will be the most downloaded mobile game in the US in 2024 | 1735707540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712102928526 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will use this source if they update it in for 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.businessofapps.com/data/most-popular-mobile-games/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.businessofapps.com/data/most... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11988552623749811, "platformFee": 0.11988552623749811, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | JamesF | 1713883590656 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "36e4726b8535", "prob": 0.16691306383048757, "text": "Monopoly GO", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.18353857687855, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 95.74778037824433, "textFts": "'go':2 'monopoli':1", "contractId": "CEYhvFYtunrccBBjlRLr", "createdTime": 1712102928526, "probChange... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712102928958}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712102929021}] | ["culture-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1713883587372 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Do5aCmCCDJs65F9Qv7k7 | magnus-carlsen-standard-fide-rating | 71.99999999999989 | Magnus Carlsen standard Fide rating at the end of 2024 | 1735707540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712103221941 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to the rating shown here at the end of 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6756125452753197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | JamesF | 1717571178357 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "f7885a8d228b", "prob": 0.005901282400783729, "text": "2750-2753", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9624014452082125, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 162.12104039794087, "textFts": "'-2753':2 '2750':1", "contractId": "Do5aCmCCDJs65F9Qv7k7", "createdTime": 1712103221941, "probChange... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712103222228}, {"name": "Magnus Carlsen", "slug": "magnus-carlsen", "groupId": "1xNFPjuIXk4vsCBJX3Jy", "createdTime": 1712103222251}] | ["chess", "magnus-carlsen"] | 0.25 | 1717571174559 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xjff9uteqIlQShO7rNIv | fabiano-caruana-fide-standard-ratin | 102.31740157803266 | Fabiano Caruana Fide Standard rating at the end of 2024 | 1735707540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712103359017 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves to what is shown here at EOY 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2020009", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2020009", "class": "break-anywhere ho... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0634985368683125, "platformFee": 1.434364641690048, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | JamesF | 1717703667285 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "456b7e21fdc5", "prob": 0.003246669340310457, "text": "2730-2733", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.49244600707509556, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 151.18484399622602, "textFts": "'-2733':2 '2730':1", "contractId": "xjff9uteqIlQShO7rNIv", "createdTime": 1712103359017, "probChang... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712103359419}, {"name": "Fabiano Caruana", "slug": "fabiano-caruana", "groupId": "27721d12-cc84-4987-9b56-8cfc01247ad5", "createdTime": 1712103359433}] | ["chess", "fabiano-caruana"] | 0.25 | 1717703663144 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AmhZZJ1UP1oDbkZ9Y0lf | jetblue-vs-southwest-which-airline | 24607.0877397467 | JETBLUE vs SOUTHWEST: Which airline will have a better ranking in Skytrax's "World’s Top 100 Airlines 2024"? | 1719244928284 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | ea75c2d935fe | public | 1712103485470 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Skytrax", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skytrax", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.746856811077176, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719244928284 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ea75c2d935fe", "prob": 0.9985150856437591, "text": "JETBLUE", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14223.132776578721, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.15154227944913, "textFts": "'jetblu':1", "contractId": "AmhZZJ1UP1oDbkZ9Y0lf", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712103485663}, {"name": "Companies", "slug": "companies", "groupId": "GHdHJ6FMRw0TnBSvH0cP", "createdTime": 1712103485671}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTi... | ["economics-default", "companies", "business", "travel", "airline-industry"] | 0.25 | 1719244921382 | 1719244979161 | {"ea75c2d935fe": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04292561538801153 | LXeW0vDpzPoVLyQiC5TX | {"NO": 254.0314264119852, "YES": 1502.3889320167084} | 0 | will-there-be-a-tsunami-from-the-ea | 1916.3898697472307 | Will there be a tsunami >1 meter tall from the earthquake in Taiwan today? [SHORT FUSE] | 1712192246020 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.389604546763015 | True | play | NO | public | 1712103646530 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve according to NERV reports, unless another more canonical source is offered: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/EN_NERV", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/EN_NERV", "class"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712192246020 | 360 | DanMan314 | 1712192246020 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "Earthquake", "slug": "earthquake", "groupId": "cf835665-726a-458f-8b28-702ab90d4249", "createdTime": 1712103646702}] | ["earthquake"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712191681562 | 1712192242967 | 0.01 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XZQqlZm7i5frXdqio3k4 | how-many-people-will-be-watching-th | 2101.0000008159054 | How many people will be watching the solar eclipse on nasa's youtube channel at the peak | 1712595708436 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 525103a30719 | public | 1712103810543 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the peak number of people watching on the youtube channel specifically, not on nasa's website. resolves to max or min if lower or higher than the min or max", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712595708436 | 280 | JamesF | 1712595708436 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7219bbe05ed5", "prob": 0.00012122949370169023, "text": "50000-55000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.10201545985576857, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 841.4049210188059, "textFts": "'-55000':2 '50000':1", "contractId": "XZQqlZm7i5frXdqio3k4", "resolverId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712103810807}, {"name": "NASA", "slug": "nasa", "groupId": "c6d9ce56-6640-455b-96db-3c3293d41f0f", "createdTime": 1712103810808}, {"name": "Eclipse", "slug": "eclipse", "groupId": "4bd0a32d-97da-4479-8fd0-43d0d5a7a63c"... | ["science-default", "nasa", "eclipse", "april-8-2023-total-eclipse"] | 0.25 | 1712594331647 | 1712595694189 | {"525103a30719": 100} | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8ZbneDuw7FobLBSnZThW | ryanair-vs-easyjet-which-budget-air | 11866.46819587896 | RYANAIR vs EASYJET: Which budget airline will have a better ranking in Skytrax's "World’s Top 100 Airlines 2024"? | 1719244902597 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 0faf0ba7eaca | public | 1712104092835 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Skytrax", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skytrax", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.338173096751294, "platformFee": 0.28254042557801484, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719244902597 | 200 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0faf0ba7eaca", "prob": 0.9997831278507285, "text": "RYANAIR", "color": "#3f51b5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8390.176329888978, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.8199902786327584, "textFts": "'ryanair':1", "contractId": "8ZbneDuw7FobLBSnZThW", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712104093054}, {"name": "Airline Industry", "slug": "airline-industry", "groupId": "eqI8kRHGi03K4BRnImPH", "createdTime": 1712104093056}, {"name": "Companies", "slug": "companies", "groupId": "GHdHJ6FMRw0TnBSvH0cP"... | ["economics-default", "airline-industry", "companies", "business", "travel"] | 0.25 | 1719244891383 | 1719244934427 | {"0faf0ba7eaca": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IGINREnkr47HYINurLNZ | lebron-prop-bets | 804.6547119602859 | LeBron Prop Bets | 1893398340000 | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712104097491 | vibhav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LeBron James", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All references to \"season\" refer to regular season unless specified otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everything will be reso... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.652683505922578, "platformFee": 1.8000773871390028, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1400 | vibhav | 1720026308687 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | 17 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c0d611a59937", "prob": 0.9679710243063452, "text": "Is on the same NBA roster as any of his sons at any point during his career", "index": 0, "poolNo": 433.6195473992984, "userId": "Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.347939757699102, "textFts": "'career':17 'nba':5 'point':14 'roste... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705419897240 | 0 | [{"name": "Prop Bets", "slug": "prop-bets", "groupId": "64e721a5-ed88-4480-9b00-c00a7d4d1e2d", "createdTime": 1712104097881}, {"name": "Lebron James", "slug": "lebron-james", "groupId": "b98a72ae-7ff8-47ec-8e6c-38dc58066a18", "createdTime": 1712104097886}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "Njk... | ["prop-bets", "lebron-james", "basketball", "nba", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1720026305538 | 1719733450406 | False | prob-desc | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6FfJhZqQ0SvWw6Uzq5EE | would-you-enter-the-experience-mach | 0 | Would you enter the Experience Machine | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712104281726 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Imagine a machine that could give you any experience (or sequence of experiences) you might desire. When connected to this experience machine, you can have the experience of writing a great poem or bringing about world peace or loving someone and b... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | BTE | 1712593587479 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Phil Papers Survey", "slug": "phil-papers-survey", "groupId": "ed236348-880b-4934-ba61-174f71aa6f92", "createdTime": 1712104281924}] | ["phil-papers-survey"] | 0.25 | 1712593586641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4713020561707428 | 3oIfaNHi2F5hH8BJTJqn | {"NO": 122.2797804194933, "YES": 215.06777473809984} | 0.3363596055394963 | will-tumbles-reach-platinum-in-the | 176.37362431099336 | Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas? | 1735199940000 | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712105015922 | Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of creating this market I'm in silver.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://slippi.gg/user/TBLS-512", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://slippi.gg/user/TBLS-512", "class": "break... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0741722703251453, "platformFee": 1.0741722703251453, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Tumbles | 1713843514489 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1667436087719 | 0 | [{"name": "Tumbles Stream", "slug": "tumbles-stream", "groupId": "9d0528c6-eb61-43a5-a5f0-b6c40e859d31", "createdTime": 1712105016075}, {"name": "Super Smash Bros. Melee", "slug": "super-smash-bros-melee", "groupId": "koeOcecc6M4mnd83iBbb", "createdTime": 1712105016072}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId... | ["tumbles-stream", "super-smash-bros-melee", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713843511068 | 1712445501544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23471998566692487 | 4LEYPlTDUhMe76i2vYJY | {"NO": 956.148981834091, "YES": 1064.9430369133995} | 0.21591859335610403 | will-chess-be-solved-before-asi-is | 851.8153827727862 | Will Chess be solved before ASI is acheived | 4133998740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63788314618541 | False | basic | public | 1712105527043 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when credible media sources say that chess is solved. ASI taken from other manifold markets.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0002048031118013216} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4878152551621661, "platformFee": 0.4729190397771237, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1718643578591 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "ASI", "slug": "asi", "groupId": "739b81d5-5bf6-4b54-a364-f6e0f67afbd3", "createdTime": 1712105527216}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712105527231}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712105527218}] | ["asi", "chess", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718643575521 | 1713808754046 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.