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0.22586331525620088 | 6adiu9H9XOWlBaf6u8Xc | {"NO": 930.761698220175, "YES": 1165.4923224931656} | 0.18897042083816085 | will-artificial-blood-be-used-to-tr-0810029e9d6b | 393.7442454484691 | Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.665508229098469 | False | basic | public | 1712238433260 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by December 31st, 2026, artificial blood is used to treat a patient, in a way that is safe and effective, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Artificial blood is non-h... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.00016777433913647832} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.08764545432549026, "platformFee": 0.07458450011693163, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719072750078 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712238433427}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1712238433418}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "... | ["technology-default", "medicine", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719072747014 | 1712308439659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9171067540220657 | I5Ez649RWuCBbvjVnsYW | {"NO": 1706.4722770538203, "YES": 893.6061616991574} | 0.9548079344844755 | will-a-different-animal-have-a-baby | 731.5277229461796 | Will a different animal have a baby on the moon before a human does. | 2556161940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.442746237351312 | False | basic | public | 1712238495520 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1712476904770 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing", "slug": "artemis-3", "groupId": "JFSueHSoflV6QCBPjC3l", "createdTime": 1712238495671}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712238495677}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaL... | ["artemis-3", "space-exploration", "space", "pets", "moon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712476901454 | 1712243459255 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4409868583478866 | q1r5oJUlIovk9x9SoO38 | {"NO": 1025.9977132510032, "YES": 963.2372951510749} | 0.45660026280829774 | will-artificial-blood-be-used-to-tr-8a49faf06658 | 319 | Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2028? | 1861937940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.714833918462922 | False | basic | public | 1712238533985 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by December 31st, 2028, artificial blood is used to treat a patient, in a way that is safe and effective, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0008940423454193991} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0831906425621423, "platformFee": 0.1481427753205244, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719072767382 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712238534152}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1712238534156}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "... | ["technology-default", "medicine", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719072764320 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28705869361053055 | kG1pSYHKQQkQBFlXCHvC | {"NO": 133.34820583307902, "YES": 393.99166183429554} | 0.11993156892801028 | will-artificial-blood-be-used-to-tr-6f2be97f35a3 | 194 | Will artificial blood be used to treat a patient by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712238681728 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by December 31st, 2025, artificial blood is used to treat a patient, in a way that is safe and effective, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0003735969136705458} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0083381657045294, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | Bayesian | 1719072785277 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712238681909}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712238682029}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "... | ["science-default", "technology-default", "medicine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719072782191 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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xPZxausa3PO9guly56a2 | what-will-be-the-most-impactful-fea-cb009c326c37 | 502.3124120769615 | What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024? (open for trading) | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.194692536056394 | False | play | public | 1712245841914 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I wont close this market early", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This will be resolved mostly according to James' market, but I will take into account the discussion and comment, and do adjustment on resolvi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7444554375239646, "platformFee": 0.7444554375239646, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1180 | AmmonLam | 1714609785819 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 8 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "8ed7ae79709e", "prob": 0.007546821229513083, "text": "Creator Partner Program", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.267177944620172, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 955.6783753700231, "textFts": "'creator':1 'partner':2 'program':3", "contractId": "xPZxausa3PO9guly56a2", "createdTime... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f", "createdTime": 1712245842322}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712245842341}] | ["2024-3d9da60b52f8", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1714490093037 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tNPuPosGYYevsg6sRcDM | what-should-i-do-in-san-francisco-b | 0 | What should I do in San Francisco before moving away? | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712247719799 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After two years, I’m moving out of San Francisco, tentatively 11/1/24. This market is to give me suggestions on things to do before I leave. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I’ve done somet... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | MarkHamill | 1718441705350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1800 | ["oTkzA4WWy7GKYixSAWba", "L4sfHvZGzZLownwhMTKh"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1712247719980}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 1718441704213 | 2000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
r16PoZI5mGqYrOE98Auc | what-dark-web-markets-will-have-exi | 317.9945806299492 | What dark web markets will have exit scammed before the end of 2025? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1767254340000 | 9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712247763818 | Rucker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: I do NOT condone the use of any markets listed in this market. Stay in school, use your head. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be judged on a case by case basis, however ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 340 | Rucker | 1713292687601 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "39ee061ec242", "prob": 0.23584905660377356, "text": "Archetyp", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.06172839506172, "userId": "9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.99999999999999, "textFts": "'archetyp':1", "contractId": "r16PoZI5mGqYrOE98Auc", "createdTime": 1712247763818, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698428728752 | 0 | [{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1712247764018}, {"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1712247764023}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "c... | ["finance", "drugs", "technology-default", "dark-web", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1713292683904 | 1713287094776 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12199236143536615 | LntwZWAzWACbR7d6xAzU | {"NO": 847.7851853835023, "YES": 1827.9344374204802} | 0.06053940142260846 | will-the-chiefs-leave-kansas-city-b | 1040.5404291040816 | Will the Chiefs leave Kansas City by the end of 2026? | 1798779540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.160756404943875 | False | basic | public | 1712247791805 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0037313690663663204} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7758266222079998, "platformFee": 0.3411236855311571, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1718892662953 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Kansas City Chiefs", "slug": "kansas-city-chiefs", "groupId": "2abf714e-d387-4dc6-af68-455287828996", "createdTime": 1712247791950}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1712247792014}] | ["kansas-city-chiefs", "nfl"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718892659886 | 1712730031983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06617092910925026 | d2iMIYovYQkHVyFlu93L | {"NO": 833.933039481282, "YES": 2264.3185619595183} | 0.025433434144556084 | will-trump-be-forced-to-swear-under | 1522.7107996130585 | Will Trump be forced to swear under oath that he will stop violating the gag order in his NY hush money trial? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712247873832 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.0408340855860843e-17, "week": -1.0408340855860843e-17, "month": -1.0408340855860843e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.764292569907799, "platformFee": 4.764292569907799, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1715737839275 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1712247874027}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1712247874030}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzc... | ["trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715737835965 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22835759531275324 | NBHlaOjKeMWQbj60jID2 | {"NO": 1230.7316870759219, "YES": 2074.9738185531332} | 0.14931952545058536 | destiny-v-dan-on-ray-guns-will-a-di | 2105.4446710748534 | Destiny v Dan on Ray Guns: Will a directed Energy weapon be discovered within the next year? | 1743773340000 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.31206262516447 | False | basic | public | 1712247878451 | Genzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "WARNING: Not doing science review -- Will resolve based on whoever wins their bet & gets paid.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I guess if you really want to understa... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6422245968387172, "platformFee": 3.6422245968387172, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1410 | Gen | 1714309349469 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668776584415 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712247878697}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1712247878783}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime"... | ["destinygg", "russia", "science-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714309346220 | 1712320908723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | byCB3QQ74wNN76k4ghjN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-nick-mess-up-todays-podcast-45 | 0 | Will Nick Mess Up Today's Podcast? 4/5/24 | 1712248148835 | ceWd3rsac7VxZGLuz8Mu1JJMwfr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.726376370574009 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712247880507 | Firtree Baseball | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nick's 4/5/24 livestream", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712248148835 | 100 | FirtreeBaseball | 1712248148835 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712246612838 | 0 | [{"name": "Pitcher List", "slug": "pitcher-list", "groupId": "0ed4c0b1-337c-4d16-9829-e10877c16b2f", "createdTime": 1712247880650}] | ["pitcher-list"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ceWd3rsac7VxZGLuz8Mu1JJMwfr2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27984673970419527 | Kvq3Ax6EQ4nbU0yEtXJ6 | {"NO": 790.3248939866173, "YES": 1587.9142510820996} | 0.16206344694185648 | will-rfk-jr-participate-in-an-offic | 1734.1269046889538 | Will RFK Jr participate in an official presidential debate? | 1730433540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.692723182738973 | False | basic | public | 1712248086531 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.012486544583898751, "month": -0.3326600749545287} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.8089819455408, "platformFee": 5.949881310167232, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1719910597281 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712248086671}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712248086678}, {"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robe... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "robert-f-kennedy-jr"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719910594217 | 1714687599891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DkEy2GGiz1YHvJXGmJBg | what-will-be-the-most-impactful-fea-2011fb32651a | 4779.225460807759 | What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024, according to Manifold users? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712249006703 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved according to a poll of Manifold users, using approval voting, at the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Features must be roughly ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9074125060314361, "platformFee": 0.866216695137542, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1235 | Bayesian | 1719072799627 | 0 | 21 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c9fc7ab2c58e", "prob": 0.010427165883112693, "text": "Creator Partner Program", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.084457851101456, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 957.048698382054, "textFts": "'creator':1 'partner':2 'program':3", "contractId": "DkEy2GGiz1YHvJXGmJBg", "createdTime... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f", "createdTime": 1712249006971}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712249006978}] | ["2024-3d9da60b52f8", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1719072796167 | 1713873818206 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3097723961669425 | NWAyrMEzZeN6QOyNmw3k | {"NO": 156.00500493478359, "YES": 377.09406015694435} | 0.1565942432330699 | will-the-price-of-silver-surpass-50 | 233 | Will the price of silver surpass $50 per ounce by the end of the year? | 1735700340000 | EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712249265001 | Gugra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Silver Spot Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.apmex.com/silver-price", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05508898648343055, "platformFee": 0.05508898648343055, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Gugra | 1716030736369 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690905249039 | 0 | [{"name": "Commodities", "slug": "commodities", "groupId": "DEebqMgsJZqzNZRH6TLW", "createdTime": 1712249265150}, {"name": "Prices", "slug": "prices", "groupId": "ec8ff17e-7276-4586-83a8-7fc5a4a7195f", "createdTime": 1712249265142}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"... | ["commodities", "prices", "economics-default", "world-default", "currency"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716030733127 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hm7P4LfJRTWn4Hva6Adk | how-many-nonincumbent-republican-se | 532.4193568053171 | How many non-incumbent Republican Senate candidates will outrun Trump? | 1731398340000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712249383071 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of non sitting GOP Senate candidates who get a higher percentage of the TWO-PARTY vote in the 2024 election than Trump. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes bu... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.05462011208285548, "platformFee": 0.05462011208285548, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarkHamill | 1713500471514 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9b84e1075296", "prob": 0.02722919206747417, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.023399300598218, "userId": "S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 608.1658923395682, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "Hm7P4LfJRTWn4Hva6Adk", "createdTime": 1712249383071, "probChanges": {"day": -1.04083408... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712249383484}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1712249383489}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "donald-trump", "2024-us-election", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1713500467990 | 1712252284380 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7357212966378769 | g6FUGYGZ8yTOAD8lzxDX | {"NO": 549.7017268051603, "YES": 199.25770306597093} | 0.884793077783396 | will-any-senate-incumbent-lose-reel | 340.21186005806743 | Will any Senate incumbent lose reelection in November 2024? | 1731398340000 | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712249499642 | Mark Hamill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022, not a single incumbent Senator lost reelection, a rare occurrence. Will the same happen again in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: They have to make it to the general electi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.04320656838602967, "platformFee": 0.04320656838602967, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | MarkHamill | 1713591704973 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1670287347607 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712249499798}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712249499800}, {"name": "US Senate", "slug": "us-senate", "groupId": "Scdb6UrBLNsi1zvLGSD5", "cre... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-senate", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-us-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713591701315 | 1712255299267 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.28683718448916107 | jFyKXVefQP6k0CacuPs4 | {"NO": 921.5295010974287, "YES": 1128.5446821417445} | 0.24722930509956437 | will-there-be-laws-protecting-genet | 1001.2565494840842 | Will there be laws protecting genetically modified humans from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611176001291398 | False | basic | public | 1712263234429 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12876831788948442, "platformFee": 0.12876831788948442, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714144470953 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1712263234604}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712263234602}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1712263... | ["medicine", "law-order", "futurism", "transhumanism", "genetics", "biotech", "culture-default", "human-genetic-engineering", "united-states", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714144467675 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3786904536643999 | BF0VdlIK3xiaqsqrTFAx | {"NO": 981.3354014754469, "YES": 1018.053351638062} | 0.37008700011141393 | will-there-be-laws-protecting-digit | 235 | Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060? | 2871781140000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.650860089339016 | False | basic | public | 1712263235175 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1714489587062 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712263235333}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712263235420}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 171... | ["ai", "technology-default", "ai-impacts", "law-order", "society-people", "ai-alignment", "culture-default", "us-politics", "united-states"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714489583755 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.657186151844193 | HNlUZhDP0hifF5vrW2jt | {"NO": 2369.226115169121, "YES": 623.795316771777} | 1 | will-any-squad-member-lose-their-pr | 1792.215892656074 | Will any Squad member lose their primary election in 2024? | 1719365336982 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.790318853020624 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712264437271 | Magnus | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if any of the following members of the US House lose their primary for reelection in their districts. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Squad members who drop out before their primary are not considered.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.29690406698827265} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.072966636550156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719365336982 | 1000 | thepurplebull | 1719365336982 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | 12 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700605001274 | 0 | [{"name": "🫏 Democratic Party", "slug": "democratic-party", "groupId": "345309ab-caa0-4c2d-8dae-7f55d25e789a", "createdTime": 1712264439071}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1712264439072}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "... | ["democratic-party", "2024-us-election", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719328317499 | 1719327606242 | 0.88 | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5326417972765174 | 3JIa6hXh4qEa3ByBwCnh | {"NO": 940.1932194495183, "YES": 1044.4352047670297} | 0.5064014045666341 | will-the-next-pivot-be-surprising | 411.23135594021124 | Will the next pivot be surprising? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.369438089738722 | False | basic | public | 1712268647866 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to poll after the next pivot is revealed", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.002418469975500326} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7561961559174053, "platformFee": 1.58881108803528, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1718877882021 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712268655295}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718877878949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oLHRWi9wFVmTymchySwp | how-long-will-james-remain-the-ceo | 229.03933846089487 | How long will James remain the CEO of Manifold? | 1798779540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712269158026 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 310 | AmmonLam | 1712554941702 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "32169870f7ee", "prob": 0.7916439491916285, "text": "Until the end of 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.75412562287546, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.886643039537375, "textFts": "'2024':5 'end':3", "contractId": "oLHRWi9wFVmTymchySwp", "createdTime": 1712269158026, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712554938141 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2886454153827903 | OMWrwMAbKXxgrwLm3llv | {"NO": 896.1511056057197, "YES": 1067.7146388261858} | 0.2540478600512628 | will-special-counsel-jack-smith-see | 1173.8968620707808 | Will Special Counsel Jack Smith seek mandamus regarding Judge Cannon's jury instructions in the Trump documents case? | 1735711140000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.653218493179235 | False | basic | public | 1712269594525 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Former president Trump is on trial in federal court in Florida, having been indicted for illegally possessing documents related to national defense. The judge, Eileen Cannon, ordered both sides of the case to prepare draft jury instructions on the ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.140501452066519, "platformFee": 2.6037879772372583, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1716915286747 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | [{"name": "Justice", "slug": "justice", "groupId": "1efab6ef-de22-4cb9-b01b-dfccf3407bb7", "createdTime": 1712269594812}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1712269594810}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "create... | ["justice", "law-order", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716915282843 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7902538933034849 | MfyIgCpmLyGyoTNP84TQ | {"NO": 15862.66325186828, "YES": 37.01750893127286} | 1 | -will-1899-hoffenheim-beat-fc-augsb | 17898.84425355036 | ⚽ Will 1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg during regular time on Sun, Apr 7, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪 | 1712507400000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.914117907603644 | True | play | YES | public | 1712270286915 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Comp... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0006189982745669065} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712518927221 | 280 | FranklinBaldo | 1712507400000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712270287086}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1712270287092}] | ["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712506442529 | 1 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6507303707937875 | KKySI9QbBeGbgKiFqABK | {"NO": 1024.8788068413155, "YES": 975.232872268603} | 0.6619294864264883 | will-elon-musk-or-xtwitter-file-at | 301.16 | Will Elon Musk or X/Twitter file at least one lawsuit against an entity "responsible" for bots/trolls on X? | 1743857940000 | YDBf91CxCwcFYGR05xghoKCwjg03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60943315869743 | False | basic | public | 1712271519193 | RichardK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A bot/troll \"purge\" is underway/has happened. It's going to be hard to measure any change on bot/troll activity but we can certainly find out if any lawsuits get filed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RichardK | 1712505687876 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1658538462961 | 0 | [{"name": "Silicon Scuffle", "slug": "silicon-scuffle", "groupId": "dbf34894-41eb-4cc7-b0b3-04b134d7509a", "createdTime": 1712271519362}, {"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w", "createdTime": 1712271519368}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQ... | ["silicon-scuffle", "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712505684712 |
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