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0.6708133907580262 | ZlJ27ox9rjA9tkGPSEuS | {"NO": 20816.330239280825, "YES": 17.029627442807396} | 1 | will-i-study-physics-for-at-least-2 | 21007.89838529118 | Will I study physics for at least 2 hours today | 1712304000000 | vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1541806147527236 | True | play | YES | public | 1712279227639 | cc6 ♠︎ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a test tomorrow 💀. Also if I stay up past midnight to complete my 2 hours then it still counts, I just need to get 2 hours before 1AM. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712304006210 | 200 | cc6 | 1712360455269 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1666242293960 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1712360455269}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1712303998510 | 1712303992099 | 1 | vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.24167366775673263 | zHMi1yKjLpSel4vJFRbR | {"NO": 44.17644495069044, "YES": 1393.7958099942703} | 0 | can-someone-get-me-a-genealogical-d | 2988.2512705319477 | Make mana!! Find me a big genealogical database (anonymised is okay) with 10m people in it from post 1900, in the US/EU | 1714546740000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712284283423 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I want to pay someone to do this for me. If you do it and I end up with the file, then this resolves YES. I will pump a ton of mana into NO beforehand which means you can get a lot of cheap shares if you know it's possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1499111737316321, "platformFee": 0.1499111737316321, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714549489392 | 140 | Ernie | 1714546740000 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "Genealogy", "slug": "genealogy", "groupId": "f847d53c-4ddf-45f3-9c6e-e9f69d2d6ad3", "createdTime": 1712284283587}, {"name": "Manifold Bounties", "slug": "manifold-bounties", "groupId": "977G2Xx33yCxI3wHgpsF", "createdTime": 1712284294060}, {"name": "Bounty markets", "slug": "bounty-markets", "groupId": "yogJ... | ["genealogy", "manifold-bounties", "bounty-markets", "manifold-community-bounties"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713907082785 | 1712345126023 | 0.01 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5377197898686561 | PPvdYwN0qfjloIWhY0h4 | {"NO": 538.3875364968226, "YES": 273.61389669397266} | 1 | will-i-be-able-to-resolve-this-mark-c6f503e5deca | 325.1913167103641 | Will I be able to resolve this market YES without my hands using ChatGPT voice input and the Manifold API? | 1713104178397 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9608723594175085 | True | play | YES | public | 1712284643188 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Saturday, I'm going to show a demo to a friend of using ChatGPT's voice input feature and API calling ability to resolve this market hands-free. If I resolve this market YES, I'll post the code in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3040624084764715} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713104178397 | 380 | singer | 1713104708142 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712284643336}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712284643348}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713059809308 | 1713104707476 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.53060814791468 | dTTIxPUFcdPXt4kQDak0 | {"NO": 485.72382981232124, "YES": 59.49645946364828} | 0.9022350792985699 | will-a-bot-be-at-the-top-of-manifol | 330 | Will a bot be at the top of manifold's all time profit leaderboard before 2026 | 1798779540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712285606733 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "it must be from real profit and no artificle profit spikes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2907960365785369} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.276170187678795, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | JamesF | 1718187147978 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712285606902}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1712285606899}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718187144602 | 1712316806165 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xwVDwsrRoDUJbpfg02Tg | what-utc-hour-will-the-bitcoin-halv | 13272.648634401807 | [Short fuse] What hour will the Bitcoin halving occur in (UTC)? | 1713572098059 | ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 4bc329cca08c | public | 1712286830345 | blue | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves once the first Bitcoin block after the halving is mined. I.e. the first block which has the mining subsidy halved.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves ... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 849.9242590076689, "platformFee": 849.9242590076689, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713572106491 | 780 | bluefrog | 1713572098059 | 0 | 16 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4bc329cca08c", "prob": 0.992873861187101, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1117.9472281854125, "userId": "ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.023826031657222, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "xwVDwsrRoDUJbpfg02Tg", "resolverId": "ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1", "createdTim... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697991768072 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712286830628}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712286830632}] | ["technology-default", "bitcoin"] | 0.25 | 1713571899704 | 1713571834163 | {"4bc329cca08c": 100} | ADbUe3UA8VeQscv6vWhTsPwCBgi1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33604138610614115 | GZDPDydf87pqCoGZp6ub | {"NO": 14.150735206614627, "YES": 21256.575900420517} | 0 | any-team-enters-only-one-car-into-t | 1277.7350269189626 | Any team enters only one car into the 2024 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix | 1712466127815 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.335575779759548 | True | play | NO | public | 1712288997853 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if 20 cars are present for the start of the formation lap + pit lane start combined. Resolves YES if fewer than 20 cars do this. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Williams has only ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02329551101263142} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712466127815 | 200 | KevinBurke | 1712466127815 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1712288997995}, {"name": "Williams", "slug": "williams", "groupId": "461f096a-dbe5-4665-9c13-da261758dfda", "createdTime": 1712288997998}] | ["formula-1", "williams"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712465995861 | 1712466110690 | 0 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nBzFsTNue8qWh6Vn9t8T | what-will-be-true-of-my-chocolate-p | 1760.6894349374154 | What will be true of my next chocolate pop-up? | 1712531305457 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712290055679 | case | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am doing another pop-up this Sunday. Like last time I will be selling chocolate milk (with a few new flavors) and also chocolate squares and cocoa powder!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712531305457 | 837.5 | case | 1712538100500 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a4eadfe5e71b", "prob": 0.76, "text": "Will sell more oat milk drink than cow milk drinks", "index": 0, "poolNo": 93.75000000000001, "userId": "yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.600340136054427, "textFts": "'cow':8 'drink':6,10 'milk':5,9 'oat':4 'sell':2", "contractId": "nBzFsTNue8... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698605440324 | 0 | [{"name": "San Diego", "slug": "san-diego", "groupId": "8616af60-7f23-48b8-a2e3-f927438084f1", "createdTime": 1712290434677}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712290452577}] | ["san-diego", "business"] | 0.25 | 1712531273413 | 1712538099728 | 0.35 | yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7044190571528606 | DQH8ccvYcUbAKNTyg0em | {"NO": 462.7354280460459, "YES": 258.3332779694186} | 1 | will-my-icml-submission-be-accepted | 321.3243778206174 | Will my ICML submission be accepted? | 1714612979416 | blTI9ixKBtWA3PlEyjuFPryvIpy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1712290829684 | Tom Burns | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have previously published in ICLR, another leading AI conference. The three anonymous reviewers gave scores of 7,6,4 (Accept, Weak Accept, Borderline Reject). To not break anonymity, I will not say anything to identify the paper. My list of previ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9467933374643924, "platformFee": 0.9467933374643924, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714612979416 | 320 | TomBurns | 1714627582854 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJswF6-uWktnwJK94RxGHWt5jlvR7cx7ofRgVS7_N0xg=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704647170709 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712290829915}, {"name": "Research", "slug": "research", "groupId": "fbd2df80-ae0e-443f-b3e7-627747c12873", "createdTime": 1712290829913}, {"name": "📖 Academia", "slug": "-academia", "groupId": "96982729-5728-43e0-a698-6231f2f6c989", "c... | ["ai", "research", "-academia", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714596379924 | 1714627581622 | 0.81 | blTI9ixKBtWA3PlEyjuFPryvIpy1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.463405112243624 | mgPlZD3RCfWwU3cB8JER | {"NO": 247.0399140661717, "YES": 322.1009769434283} | 0 | will-i-do-50-pushups-everyday-for-a | 171.40548422028502 | Will I do 50 pushups everyday (for at least 6/7 days in 7/8 of the next weeks)? | 1713497721274 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2053032923093223 | True | play | NO | public | 1712292370463 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I expect the pushups to be recorded by commenting as such (or editing an existing comment) each day.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note:", "type": "text", "marks... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.39844297726258204} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713497721274 | 280 | Bayesian | 1713497721274 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz", "createdTime": 1712292370919}, {"name": "Workout", "slug": "workout", "groupId": "af1c75b0-c378-4f1a-9d26-453bf415785e", "createdTime": 1712292370923}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQ... | ["commitment-devices", "workout", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713184340014 | 1713160606109 | 0.4 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | IOUPjkZZxjiu4Em7HUqa | {"NO": 94.16965821485108, "YES": 106.19131671036409} | 0 | daily-coinflip-cb65a225ccd0 | 3746.0442607915575 | Daily coinflip | 1712462340000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.16014964645576255 | True | play | NO | public | 1712292602013 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 132)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.47} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712465829898 | 100 | Traveel | 1712469292366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1712292602244}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1712292602294}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1712461577324 | 1712469291955 | 0.47 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4987367624424973 | u5rMzA7ab5obUJYIbFnk | {"NO": 118.49557522123895, "YES": 121.52740341419585} | 0 | will-resolve-to-100-if-higher-than | 41.59180341953774 | will resolve to 100% if higher than 50%, will resolve to 0% if under 50%, will resolve to 50% if 50% | 1712933940000 | SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3802685888541903 | True | play | NO | public | 1712293615668 | Elliot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "will resolve to 100% if higher than 50%, will resolve to 0% if under 50%, will resolve to 50% if 50%", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4924213002585} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713062942058 | 120 | Elliot_dev | 1712933940000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696789198949 | 0 | [{"name": "Game theory", "slug": "game-theory", "groupId": "FlG6Zfb4XRdipKWJWIdW", "createdTime": 1712293616103}, {"name": "Numbers", "slug": "numbers", "groupId": "65afa94c-0b27-4f75-b344-f01de72d817b", "createdTime": 1712293616101}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-... | ["game-theory", "numbers", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1712295694151 | 0.49 | SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vmpNkIx6dgIgI743LjjR | what-is-the-classification-and-type | 0 | What is the classification and type of aircraft is the Cirrus Vision SF50 G2? | Pg0LC6eyxlcVPJnsZWNKklFCYH32 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712294624893 | John smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Cirrus Vision SF50 G2 falls under the classification of private jets, specifically categorized as a Very Light Jet (VLJ).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.flyoke.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Johnsmithp486 | 1712294625366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwgqYsNl7NjgDUmHQcJln9crKGH7iwp2WgJjmS4ucYDhY3pVo=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 250 | [] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712294344976 | 0 | [{"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1712294625366}] | ["russia"] | 0.25 | 250 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rMj4dHTcFGTZ6e12yXNz | would-you-want-a-robot-mom | 0 | Would you want a robot mom? | 1735657140000 | SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712295288241 | Elliot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Would you want a robo mom?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet on this Poll: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Elliot_dev/will-the-average-manifolder-want-a", "type": "tex... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Elliot_dev | 1712475135440 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696789198949 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712295288389}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712295288392}] | ["ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1712475134832 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4920514761544287 | lVkHqlkE3JH69Hwq1O6d | {"NO": 110.90909090909088, "YES": 130} | 0.4524886877828056 | will-the-ottawa-cfl-club-change-the | 10 | Will the Ottawa CFL club change their nickname before 2028? | 1830401940000 | QMtXhszGtddtFvFXsmtXG89nCIt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712323961824 | I’ll answer a REAL phone call | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhEXsaSFhHO.webp?alt=media&token=7ef5be3b-79f1-4c79-92b0-0f5de6efc9e0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOT a Redblack... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Poopycock | 1712756158911 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712256040291 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1712323961966}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1712323961978}] | ["football", "canada"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712756119109 | 1712756158459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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y0mI86xcOLBJDS3OIzGn | what-will-amanabots-calibration-gra | 2200.965691869492 | What will AMANABOT's calibration grade be in three months? | 1720216740000 | lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712326032960 | Marty Dettmann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "0fatOmS66QdaoOqnAFi6V7y1hsi2", "label": "AMANABOT"}}, {"text": " is a trading bot created by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "iSJUnanHoPMtDf4Ynp5Ze2aIXph1", "label": "AntonMakiievskyi"}}, {"text": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.957913092753722, "platformFee": 3.303761601490783, "liquidityFee": 0} | 25 | 430 | MartyDettmann | 1720208852433 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4X4k5peP3YYJWBXSzhmIMRoOAjScc3GzTCFflw=s96-c | 11 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "011c7fd0c64b", "prob": 0.0010943001809695723, "text": "S", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.3123767009124485, "userId": "lTYsNQ5HB0TagJeITqfm7jvq3pb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1197.9716257468035, "textFts": "", "contractId": "y0mI86xcOLBJDS3OIzGn", "createdTime": 1712326032960, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0008167600... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674507974528 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712326033192}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1712326033203}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRu... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots", "crypto-speculation", "technology-default", "privacy"] | 0.25 | 1720208849317 | 1719852542360 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4891675653987641 | DJ59a1NAXRYdl6kxWzQV | {"NO": 1114.636527096535, "YES": 1166.7658185338807} | 0.4777537429233185 | will-martinrandall-sleeping-beauty | 134 | Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? | 1893477540000 | fwGK5b9peFQbclczNeQdgCtjlYT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.099532116907259 | False | basic | public | 1712326595342 | Alex | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve when 2029 ends.", "type": "text"}]}, ... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1140 | alextes | 1712781761516 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681036611428 | 0 | [{"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1712326595687}, {"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1712326595742}] | ["philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712450014547 | 1712781760313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nNHi6fGsl5stL1B5741z | how-many-state-ballots-will-robert | 1579.6020395423168 | How many state ballots will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualify for? | 1730523540000 | YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712327021020 | Ollie G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Status as of market creation in early April, from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/article/rfk-jr-explainer.html?ugrp=m&unlocked_article_code=1.iE0.--_n.pC... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.03867126744523, "platformFee": 2.466583956027487, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | OllieG | 1719750681445 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c | 15 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4d51c1496cae", "prob": 0.0014443372255873736, "text": "1-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.7570400315264931, "userId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1214.745588578597, "textFts": "'-2':2 '1':1", "contractId": "nNHi6fGsl5stL1B5741z", "createdTime": 1712327021020, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692915175299 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712327021452}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712327021459}, {"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robe... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "robert-f-kennedy-jr"] | 0.25 | 1719750676668 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RMlwVGjl1MaVxxIK4WZI | whens-the-next-time-were-seeing-gro | 256.87763218402495 | When’s the next time we’re seeing Grogu (Baby Yoda)? | 1746082740000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712327124531 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ll say it, Star Wars is an absolute mess right now. They’ve had multiple TV series covering the same characters and time periods, where if you don’t watch them all, you may miss critical plot details for the characters and stories you were attemp... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.0827361162904011, "platformFee": 0.0827361162904011, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 305 | mattyb | 1713914472567 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "72a684117961", "prob": 0.3078551576163153, "text": "The Mandalorian: Season 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 48.237247567377814, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.45087791628437, "textFts": "'4':4 'mandalorian':2 'season':3", "contractId": "RMlwVGjl1MaVxxIK4WZI", "createdTime"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1712327124801}, {"name": "Star Wars", "slug": "star-wars", "groupId": "MpkzkDxvEdNMTGpTmYQG", "createdTime": 1712327124800}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1712327124810}, {"name": ... | ["movies", "star-wars", "tv", "television-film", "entertainment", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"] | 0.25 | 1713914469308 | 1712330047621 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36856915549486896 | 7fikFAMVLTLEZARDnwVq | {"NO": 183.7066545470521, "YES": 339.5630561852303} | 0.23999999999999977 | will-i-experience-another-recogniza | 309.79975003823046 | Will I experience another recognizable earthquake in the NY/NJ/PA area before the end of 2029? | 1712354380758 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1375124380948596 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712327385792 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We just had the only noticeable earthquake in my lifetime, approx 4.8-5 magnitude", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712354380758 | 240 | strutheo | 1712356521923 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Disasters", "slug": "disasters", "groupId": "89c8408c-8720-4580-85ad-73c6da3ae965", "createdTime": 1712327385937}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1712327385942}, {"name": "Earthquake", "slug": "earthquake", "groupId": "cf835665-726... | ["disasters", "natural-disasters", "earthquake", "new-jersey", "new-york", "nature"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712337283011 | 1712356521425 | 0.24 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ibEtDQ3H5gVv4coK9NAd | how-long-will-the-longest-last-name | 85.00000000000004 | How long will the longest last name of a gold medal winner in the 2024 olympic games | 1723521540000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712327608678 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How long will the longest last name be for someone who won a gold medal in the 2024 olympic games.", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | JamesF | 1713081740551 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "36d9e04d572f", "prob": 0.09035149305226282, "text": "5-6", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.6894702025367785, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 47.213050100301004, "textFts": "'-6':2 '5':1", "contractId": "ibEtDQ3H5gVv4coK9NAd", "createdTime": 1712327608678, "probChanges": {"day": 0... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1712327609390}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712327609401}, {"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF... | ["2024-summer-olympics", "sports-default", "olympics"] | 0.25 | 1713081736673 | 1712760420882 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | k1I1DgVxXeWmflBLZCmA | {"NO": 99.51996605949611, "YES": 103} | 0.13591274352219468 | will-the-translucent-thoughts-hypot-3d853c251a97 | 3 | Will "The Translucent Thoughts Hypotheses and Their..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712327769819 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LessWrong | 1712328560494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712327769980}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712328557318 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sYkmTLWb1AEavhV0D7Ky | -what-likelihood-does-the-word-poss | 0 | 📰 What likelihood does the word "possible" in news headlines most closely imply to you? | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712328075297 | Probajoelistic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recent examples:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"U.S. told Russia that Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Major flooding possible fo... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | probajoelistic | 1712583648865 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1652376963814 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712583648332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dqSMIRmSy1QmJpzl0i8P | which-papers-will-the-next-gpt-iter | 152.40986203717077 | Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite? | 1767340740000 | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712328256143 | gpt_news_headlines | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-gpt6-be-trained-with-mixtureof", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-gpt6-be-trained-with-mixtureof", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 400 | gpt_news_headlines | 1712507699026 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0597fa3c1feb", "prob": 0.22686036047628366, "text": "Mixture-of-Depths: Dynamically allocating compute in transformer-based language models", "index": 0, "poolNo": 66.02116680837712, "userId": "JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 225, "textFts": "'alloc':6 'base':11 'comput':7 'depth':4... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710363311888 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1712328256450}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712328256447}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1712328... | ["openai", "ai", "gpt5-speculation", "citation-markets"] | 0.25 | 1712507695807 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1350116673475492 | u4sxNxkvbtnzDvSWFzZc | {"NO": 137.0648935398244, "YES": 160.00000000000006} | 0.1179410314809116 | will-recursive-middle-manager-hell | 20 | Will "Recursive Middle Manager Hell" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712329531537 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | LessWrong | 1712690259191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712329531827}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712690255948 |
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