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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.13786223968610378 | ksOiLCc2ww4i5x7Ax0iD | {"NO": 118.46041363056248, "YES": 130} | 0.1271811307110469 | will-llms-for-alignment-research-a | 10 | Will "LLMs for Alignment Research: a safety priority?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712329841467 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | LessWrong | 1712334770246 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712329841629}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712334766969 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5490814029989158 | XaSYztE9o2CwtjyRajl5 | {"NO": 1070.111580271568, "YES": 473.9916546911485} | 1 | does-manifold-like-moonmarsrelated | 925.7318967122127 | Does Manifold like Moon/Mars-related markets? | 1714529513488 | xu6BIDLCFSaSPFhxDGppn69dTCB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.55537657145826 | True | play | YES | public | 1712332810998 | Caterpidgey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have seen a lot of Moon/Mars-related markets on my feed recently, and I want to know if people like them.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to the result of a poll that will stay... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.394762075477824, "platformFee": 2.394762075477824, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714529525160 | 720 | Caterpidgey | 1714529643238 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704779829087 | 0 | [{"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1712332811202}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712332811203}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "cr... | ["mars", "space", "space-exploration", "manifold-6748e065087e", "moon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713825450500 | 1714529641559 | 0.73 | xu6BIDLCFSaSPFhxDGppn69dTCB2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48317212313670316 | PE95JDJyu6u2gvETpysy | {"NO": 140.92809262718524, "YES": 161.0288489323696} | 0 | will-nick-mess-up-todays-podcast-45-a61d921f4fc0 | 92.30750671679411 | Will Nick Mess Up Today's Podcast? 4/5/24 | 1712334615295 | 2cXpVA72BSYnbLSbhVVORHRaQSl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.002714215032136 | True | play | NO | public | 1712332876639 | Pitcher List | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nick's 4/5/24 livestream", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.4499999999999997} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712334615295 | 220 | PitcherList | 1712334615295 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzXjaNw6_M4dFQ-_Duzgu9OunjANuu56WX4CLTxoQW4kwT2QA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712246421406 | 0 | [{"name": "Pitcher List", "slug": "pitcher-list", "groupId": "0ed4c0b1-337c-4d16-9829-e10877c16b2f", "createdTime": 1712332876807}] | ["pitcher-list"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712333152499 | 0.45 | 2cXpVA72BSYnbLSbhVVORHRaQSl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5023709668994403 | Eie84XANYrTYLkjFsG8M | {"NO": 1800.6305791195537, "YES": 18.361503885590537} | 1 | will-any-of-the-first-5-named-hurri | 1939.0995239114259 | Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall? | 1720137396773 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1712332974738 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Named Hurricane", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reliable source reports it as making landfall as a hurricane", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2024 hurricane season (before, during, af... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.7617362701330652, "month": 0.7038943398525579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.295860277323122, "platformFee": 0.5119958756055232, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720137396773 | 180 | Predictor | 1720137396773 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | [{"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1712332974893}, {"name": "2024 Hurricane Season", "slug": "2024-hurricane-season", "groupId": "c02acce6-d125-4a24-9704-1798a5fb2f09", "createdTime": 1712332974901}, {"name": "2023 Hurricane Season", "slug": "20... | ["natural-disasters", "2024-hurricane-season", "2023-hurricane-season", "atlantic-hurricane-season", "extreme-weather"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025097221 | 1720025159807 | 0.99 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2318186829645662 | KZOsRNLK1WopQSIUHGkB | {"NO": 2955.4188896123896, "YES": 9.00883315658416} | 1 | gpt45-released-this-quarter | 47479.62053878048 | GPT-4.5 released this quarter? | 1715814668366 | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.80873244760619 | True | play | YES | public | 1712333751526 | Jonas Vollmer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same way as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt4p5/gpt45-released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt4p5/gpt45-released", "class": "break-anywhere hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 154.01491478277316, "platformFee": 154.01491478277316, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715819468111 | 800 | JonasVollmer | 1715819663024 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | 99 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1658783181899 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712333751761}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1712333751797}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1712333751798... | ["ai", "gpt4", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715814326609 | 1715819661174 | 0.99 | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48756078218762705 | YLzyyHAMreDl4mvxOoJN | {"NO": 1117.9032194612885, "YES": 850.1213307757083} | 0.5557827812002963 | will-i-still-feel-that-it-is-import | 785.6308036666802 | Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050? | 2556255540000 | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.661149145504325 | False | basic | public | 1712334789591 | NivlacM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some ways I can see my SSN becoming unimportant:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Identity theft no longer feasible/profitable", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "US moves to a different ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0027333223033805254} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3762533579134356, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NivlacM | 1719298792427 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | 27 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668664660552 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1712334789797}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712334789799}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOc... | ["economics-default", "politics-default", "technology-default", "privacy"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719298789360 | 1712930567419 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5214367176788662 | IOzrFmeGuA86z3eLBodU | {"NO": 537.5803722139531, "YES": 50.934001676353944} | 1 | will-drake-drop-a-song-dissing-kend | 801.2115950660757 | Will Drake drop a song Dissing Kendrick Lamar in April? | 1713626509675 | Z6CQwQR624ZdgXAxzR4ngusn29W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5214267063999705 | True | play | YES | public | 1712336212004 | Cadberry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Drake releases a song where he has more than 4 lines directed at dissing Kendrick Lamar. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0800000000000034} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.4305621965650497, "platformFee": 2.4305621965650497, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713626509675 | 160 | Cadberry | 1713626509675 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf3rmaiOdD5oJlmPI-Ni3amnkp7i22RxyY3dTM-WRoLwg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691729876538 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713598929602 | 1713598973483 | 0.92 | Z6CQwQR624ZdgXAxzR4ngusn29W2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cQL1PV6rgRHV7ea9noWo | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-55 | 263.05982171846824 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 55) | 1712440740000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712336502085 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712443911161 | 165 | komplexkonjugat | 1712456973833 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e37eb5add337", "prob": 0.9461345837602408, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 145.95285072531632, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.309400365065663, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1712336502242}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712336502247}] | ["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1712439746470 | 1712456973257 | 0.95 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | drx8iE8BSWNuYkmMfmhV | {"NO": 46.202237690793865, "YES": 216.43973322081263} | 0.17591338326631528 | will-gojo-satoru-return-before-summ | 287.79924629852195 | Will Gojo Satoru return before summer? | 1719028740000 | cX6eZhkzUMfID7EWl06ZV5rycs12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712336632831 | Dubz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🔒Will close June 21, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3701401819631605} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.645807148434835, "platformFee": 0.16153080369162434, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | itsdubzhere | 1719016501567 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712237830339 | 0 | [{"name": "Jujutsu Kaisen🫴🟣", "slug": "jujutsu-kaisen-47aca26bfd12", "groupId": "eff2cf9a-97b9-4528-926b-ac97a2bb0227", "createdTime": 1712336632960}] | ["jujutsu-kaisen-47aca26bfd12"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719016498530 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999451785619577 | ZB0uPtMGfUU1qilPq3wb | {"NO": 156.8587744736889, "YES": 123.96389763400585} | 1 | will-kendrick-lamar-or-future-drop | 103.94756778064728 | Will Kendrick Lamar or Future drop another song dissing either Drake or J Cole in April? | 1713029075228 | Z6CQwQR624ZdgXAxzR4ngusn29W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.126438180474803 | True | play | YES | public | 1712336968935 | Cadberry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Cadberry/will-drake-drop-a-song-dissing-kend", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at least 4 lines are directed towards dissing Drake.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.44148530017854637} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713029075228 | 140 | Cadberry | 1713029075228 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf3rmaiOdD5oJlmPI-Ni3amnkp7i22RxyY3dTM-WRoLwg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691729876538 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712527703263 | 0.56 | Z6CQwQR624ZdgXAxzR4ngusn29W2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5372633063699717 | OrGcD8f1Zr6YfHFCv3OV | {"NO": 219.20992950447118, "YES": 219.41079886183232} | 1 | will-fabiano-caruana-lose-a-game-in | 912.0263531028752 | Will Fabiano Caruana lose a game in the 2024 chess candidates tournament? | 1713047572607 | gm9mnHTUJMUSfVEkyowS4qyhv0j1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4756404139577746 | True | play | YES | public | 1712338934141 | Jack D | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.46296440802023253} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713047572607 | 220 | JackDurgin | 1713047572607 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIBmM3g3-jY4Eoj115COXPsw337jQtV7CAVeDYbYgBK=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710300633167 | 0 | [{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1712338934356}] | ["chess"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713008866668 | 1712875904480 | 0.54 | gm9mnHTUJMUSfVEkyowS4qyhv0j1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4358520638603802 | GWv2ZW0k0AIRXicGvNdI | {"NO": 1124.050626650246, "YES": 836.8932286198054} | 0.509244931356801 | has-elon-musks-tesla-scrapped-plans | 1074.9925358059274 | Has Elon Musk’s Tesla scrapped plans to build Model 2 (low cost ~$25k car) as Reuters claims? | 1768309140000 | cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.768966083271525 | False | basic | public | 1712339058951 | Elf | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reuters claims 3 sources and company messages confirm they have cancelled it", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ww... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1304689619877895, "platformFee": 1.1304689619877895, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | elf | 1715615504427 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668973436049 | 0 | [{"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "createdTime": 1712339059125}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712339059126}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdT... | ["engineering", "business", "tesla", "finance", "climate", "stocks", "economics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715615501158 | 1712351216419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8805987395989872 | BJvHi3hirzhzgeAXrOTd | {"NO": 1817.1036500153484, "YES": 838.2331752042512} | 1 | will-the-highest-individual-score-a | 2138.987045364723 | Will the highest individual score at 2024 MATHCOUNTS Nationals be 40 or higher? | 1716357540000 | 1HVfKeo13ocYsTubAN98a6qW2YE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.190050703469035 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712351463523 | Ethan Lou | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on statistics pages released after", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.77706503658009, "platformFee": 10.77706503658009, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716377564307 | 1000 | EthanLou | 1716357540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI38lRl8IV2OEBMDpcwPyFwRq4Uc9SPdytcNjGf2YxQ=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708631336044 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1712351463754}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1712351463782}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "groupId": ... | ["competition-math", "mathematics", "mathematics-18cf3686f798", "competition"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716338078999 | 1714527281117 | 0.94 | 1HVfKeo13ocYsTubAN98a6qW2YE3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4897476835415524 | kP48GjjqKKuF6UHbULPa | {"NO": 131.8246087416087, "YES": 1076.9061919122062} | 0 | will-at-least-100-trucks-of-humanit | 2046.2884327537506 | Will at least 100 trucks of humanitarian aid have passed through the Erez Crossing into Gaza by April 30th? | 1714625940000 | yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712351518249 | Balasar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will use UN manifests for resolution if possible.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.431329035676814, "platformFee": 12.431329035676814, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714627792089 | 420 | Balasar | 1714627797728 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663640280350 | 0 | [{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1712351518392}, {"name": "Gaza", "slug": "gaza", "groupId": "eb9005cb-58e8-49d5-90c2-47c6e64178c7", "createdTime": 1712351518391}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", ... | ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "gaza", "israel"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714624409580 | 1714627796607 | 0.11 | yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bXe3rCBJuFCPGAuLI4eG | which-prediction-markets-and-foreca | 3013.136077735781 | Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028? | 1862024340000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712351568343 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1562341839990533, "platformFee": 0.1562341839990533, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1560 | SemioticRivalry | 1713883028458 | 0 | 38 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "9d3b0cee78a7", "prob": 0.9120075937407265, "text": "Manifold", "index": 0, "poolNo": 581.826411843379, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.13583302887773, "textFts": "'manifold':1", "contractId": "bXe3rCBJuFCPGAuLI4eG", "createdTime": 1712351568343, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "Prediction market", "slug": "prediction-market", "groupId": "60e3c3b2-6ad3-4dda-ad84-17e36de7ca7b", "createdTime": 1712351568568}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712351568572}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": ... | ["prediction-market", "politics-default", "metamarkets", "metaculus", "prediction-markets-general-discussi", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 1713883025030 | 1712427944016 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6306592409739753 | 5V2Bl9Sh7VLMQHo3oz0y | {"NO": 1420.6941242494256, "YES": 782.6793557566821} | 0.756064666868192 | musk-fact-check-will-the-tesla-robo | 2867.6304304658106 | [Musk fact check] Will the Tesla Robotaxi be unveiled on August 8th 2024? | 1723154340000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.723738614601277 | False | basic | public | 1712351758562 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as YES if there is an event executed on August 8th (local time or PST if it is online), whether it be a livestream, in-person event, or any other format (no special requirements). Otherwise, it resolves as NO.", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.010441436657207537, "month": 0.05984340697251278} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.6784201247151, "platformFee": 0.5518154174257266, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lion | 1719807617728 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 48 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1712351758726}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1712351758736}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdT... | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla", "cars", "tesla-robotaxi"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719807614660 | 1718158450373 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WfEXKqIW3SCogJraLMsn | live-what-will-happen-during-coolfo | 17215.14125947968 | 🔴LIVE: What will happen during "CoolFold" poker tonight? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1712381592424 | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712358252993 | houstonEuler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712381616505 | 1485 | houstonEuler | 1712409659994 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6f53c3aa7406", "prob": 0.02283595746385091, "text": "Anyone plays a Straight Flush", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.511437469255313, "userId": "P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 407, "textFts": "'anyon':1 'flush':5 'play':2 'straight':4", "contractId": "WfEXKqIW3SCogJraLMsn", "resolution": "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695777809174 | 0 | [{"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1712358253184}, {"name": "Manifold Plays Poker", "slug": "manifold-plays-poker", "groupId": "d99b0489-3fd6-4329-8fb1-8b888885af18", "createdTime": 1712358253192}, {"name": "Manifold TV", "slug": "manifold-tv", "groupId": "d6ab3e28-030... | ["poker", "manifold-plays-poker", "manifold-tv", "live-betting"] | 0.25 | 1712378642660 | 1712409658896 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40838174172975 | h9worsMXlb5tumAceYdx | {"NO": 14.322813446627451, "YES": 4512.253348710416} | 0 | will-new-york-mets-beat-cincinnati | 4510.312074421205 | Will New York Mets beat Cincinnati Reds on April 6? | 1712446307518 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.114984942828633 | True | play | NO | public | 1712358270296 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oddspedia.com/us/baseball/cincinnati-reds-new-york-mets-549243?m=8283014", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0021862965623653807} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712446307518 | 180 | KeenenW | 1712446307518 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "⚾ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVyUnuUtaLTGW", "createdTime": 1712358270454}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712358270451}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9r... | ["baseball", "entertainment", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "new-york", "mlb", "cincinnati-reds", "new-york-mets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712443770235 | 0 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3414780449449144 | v71ysFUv16twt6QjmxjT | {"NO": 24.331351030790227, "YES": 4247.238047292322} | 0 | will-chicago-white-sox-beat-kansas | 4120 | Will Chicago White Sox beat Kansas City Royals on April 6? | 1712454146227 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.09631775139024 | True | play | NO | public | 1712358372558 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oddspedia.com/us/baseball/chicago-white-sox-kansas-city-royals-549017?m=8315838", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002961855880780886} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712454146227 | 200 | KeenenW | 1712454146227 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712358372732}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712358372730}, {"name": "MLB", "slug": "mlb", "groupId": "RFwfANk54JSXOwj4qwsW", "c... | ["sports-default", "entertainment", "mlb", "kansas-city-royals", "chicago-white-sox", "sports-betting", "baseball"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712453543852 | 0 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.486602893477797 | nZqekc4deJKmc3NK03Pe | {"NO": 10.834622022979087, "YES": 3497.263124916034} | 0 | will-boston-red-sox-beat-los-angele | 3424 | Will Boston Red Sox beat Los Angeles Angels on April 6? | 1712464200000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.119762977689549 | True | play | NO | public | 1712358487936 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://oddspedia.com/us/baseball/boston-red-sox-los-angeles-angels-549164?m=8315841", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 act... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.41103249888516924} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712464229318 | 260 | KeenenW | 1712464200000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712358488165}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712358488164}, {"name": "Boston Red Sox", "slug": "boston-red-sox", "groupId": "b3f... | ["entertainment", "sports-default", "boston-red-sox", "mlb", "baseball", "sports-betting", "los-angeles-angels", "los-angeles"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712463623777 | 0 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5629388295900855 | D5v4HcLmvDMrZYvr0Sev | {"NO": 249.70269580833238, "YES": 136.16315915982176} | 0.7025593004253027 | will-there-be-1000-rowi-rarest-type | 142.6230020573771 | Will there be 1000+ rowi (rarest type of kiwi bird) by end of 2035? | 1735642740000 | XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712359798783 | Fion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There were estimated 165 in the 90s and 600 in 2019. Will the population be 1000 or more by the end of 2035?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve according to Wikipedia or the New Ze... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3329206489811346, "platformFee": 0.3329206489811346, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | Fion | 1714508154073 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671292812077 | 0 | [{"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1712359798955}, {"name": "Birds", "slug": "birds", "groupId": "0af9af57-b49d-40f0-8179-0e42a9daf2bc", "createdTime": 1712359798956}, {"name": "Conservation", "slug": "conservation", "groupId": "9a442778-d6b6-4875-94a1-28bd... | ["new-zealand", "birds", "conservation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714508150635 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hx6ztBBnhHTGss9lI5OG | manifold-top-traders-leaderboard-20 | 2435.55469678982 | Manifold Top Traders Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712360720028 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.81916173569354, "platformFee": 2.6146912887888774, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 605 | Bayesian | 1719783668943 | 0 | 11 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "39ca98d0e7a5", "prob": 0.98, "text": "#20 has more than 300,000M in profits", "index": 0, "poolNo": 406.43688353336427, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.459225444525345, "textFts": "'000m':6 '20':1 '300':5 'profit':8", "contractId": "Hx6ztBBnhHTGss9lI5OG", "resolution": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Leaderboard", "slug": "leaderboard", "groupId": "650ffe1a-29d1-40cf-9072-d08ee67f6fe2", "createdTime": 1712360720289}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712360720281}, {"name": "Top Traders Leaderboard", "slug": "top-traders-leaderboar... | ["leaderboard", "manifold-6748e065087e", "top-traders-leaderboard"] | 0.25 | 1719783665110 | 1716867260397 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jZFIM2hzFAcgErBnEClL | why-is-donald-trump-a-threat-to-dem | 3485.75176590615 | Why is Donald Trump a threat to Democracy (Top 5 Reasons) | 1730872740000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712360795502 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Robert F Kennedy JR claimed Joe Biden was a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump. Manifold disagrees. So what are the top 5 reasons Manifold thinks Donald Trump is a threat to democracy?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.00210108669594, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1925 | KeenenW | 1719266591395 | 0 | 41 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bec41e8d170a", "prob": 0.7099999999999997, "text": "Attacks on Free Press", "index": 0, "poolNo": 119.63611733653288, "userId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.865456376893746, "textFts": "'attack':1 'free':3 'press':4", "contractId": "jZFIM2hzFAcgErBnEClL", "createdTime": 17123... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1712360795791}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712360795802}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "c... | ["donald-trump", "politics-default", "us-politics", "celebrities", "2024-us-presidential-election", "manifold-6748e065087e", "2024-us-election", "public-opinion", "future-us-presidents", "public-figures"] | 0.25 | 1719266588365 | 1719150633270 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SZOBoEeb2WDzeeFYJ72P | manifold-top-creators-leaderboard-2 | 136.7534989764908 | Manifold Top Creators Leaderboard 2024 Megamarket | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712361013999 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1516118663098311, "platformFee": 0.14235677576048322, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 170 | Bayesian | 1719072942201 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a0359429fe2e", "prob": 0.5876622011774046, "text": "#10 has 30,000 traders", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.845393778259012, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.941254943511034, "textFts": "'000':4 '10':1 '30':3 'trader':5", "contractId": "SZOBoEeb2WDzeeFYJ72P", "createdTime": 1... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Leaderboard", "slug": "leaderboard", "groupId": "650ffe1a-29d1-40cf-9072-d08ee67f6fe2", "createdTime": 1712361014210}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712361014213}, {"name": "top creators", "slug": "top-creators", "groupId": "NYNgrd... | ["leaderboard", "manifold-6748e065087e", "top-creators"] | 0.25 | 1719072939124 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CgobiZ0Yjv5vHa40OIJA | which-meals-will-the-vibeclipse-cam | 3100.9123638748433 | Which meals will the (Vibeclipse) camp provide food (instead of outside food providers)? | 1712638740000 | wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712361122670 | Robert Cousineau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer in this market will resolve yes if the meal at Vibeclipse was cooked by the camp, and No if it was cooked by an outside food provider. If some of the food was provided by the camp but other wasn't, the market will still resolves No. O... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713159876125 | 780 | RobertCousineau | 1712638740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYlGNKsuOwB8yJXovmzzrMo-fe2CWfQnYKZEZbz_w=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ddfca01aeadc", "prob": 0.95, "text": "Breakfast, Saturday", "index": 0, "poolNo": 238.5206770453142, "userId": "wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.756822024113168, "textFts": "'breakfast':1 'saturday':2", "contractId": "CgobiZ0Yjv5vHa40OIJA", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "wGlJ... | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1677708949822 | 0 | [{"name": "vibeclipse", "slug": "vibeclipse", "groupId": "aec74a29-56b2-49c8-88a4-e8928071c8f3", "createdTime": 1712361122904}, {"name": "Vibecamp", "slug": "vibecamp", "groupId": "d1e873dd-c328-4a3f-a39a-64b5da070546", "createdTime": 1712361122910}] | ["vibeclipse", "vibecamp"] | 0.25 | 1712507288439 | 1713125909113 | 0.95 | wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2 | False |
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