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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t0p7a56Ysa88WjE0IKEz | what-is-the-name-of-the-body-of-wat | 52.32678625000105 | What is the name of the body of water where you can experience Yacht Rental Dubai? | 1713292140000 | TUxOT8JatHPR90v5gJytFJ9I6Nu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712645962497 | sneha n | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elevate your Dubai experience with our exclusive yacht rental services. Cruise the serene waters of the Arabian Gulf aboard our meticulously maintained fleet, designed for ultimate comfort and style. Whether it's a romantic getaway or a corporate e... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | snehan | 1713158507806 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXzJOrew2vTS6Il4nSJNJmPQZjhSA1F20qOB3AwhX7TCQUWg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "e5b03f5fb7a5", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Red Sea", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "TUxOT8JatHPR90v5gJytFJ9I6Nu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'red':1 'sea':2", "contractId": "t0p7a56Ysa88WjE0IKEz", "createdTime": 1712645962497, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": ... | 12 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712645657863 | 0 | 0.25 | 1713158504642 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48530818909702744 | oqxWE8M05ns3XiojmSEm | {"NO": 129.28085419272483, "YES": 151.99999999999997} | 0.44505343299891015 | did-chandrayaan3-detect-a-moonquake | 12 | Did Chandrayaan-3 detect a moonquake? | 2524723140000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712649793567 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Vikram lunar lander from the Chandrarayaan-3 mission was equipped with a seismic instrument package (ILSA). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On August 26, 2023, the ILSA recorded a “seemin... | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | themightysalmon | 1712700158257 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712649793711}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1712649793718}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 171264979370... | ["science-default", "space", "moon"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712700155016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aFu4G1DmdDuJ1zGh57G6 | how-many-stars-will-karpathys-new-l | 933.1806133245559 | How many stars will Karpathy’s new LLM training repo get in the first 7 days? | 1713304740000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 8e3013b65ea8 | public | 1712651067066 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1777427944971083809"}}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713614455929 | 540 | Soli | 1713614472083 | 0 | 14 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6dd21abdf5c0", "prob": 0.0010125664342353375, "text": "3500-4500", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9159434043347301, "userId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 903.6601647563368, "textFts": "'-4500':2 '3500':1", "contractId": "aFu4G1DmdDuJ1zGh57G6", "resolverId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2J... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712651067881}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712651067883}] | ["technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1713287114829 | 1713614471460 | {"8e3013b65ea8": 100} | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52oscjKYIDOkAbSaQCHD | temporary-fix-around-managram-issue | 0 | Temporary fix around managram issue | 1712653378657 | LIBAoi7tpqeNLYM1xxJ1QJBQqW32 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712653352921 | lastuserhere | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712653378657 | lastuserhere | 1712653352921 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomBombidail%2Fg0fX3YCnqU.02?alt=media&token=e35ed897-3f1e-4658-a7d6-fb3a1590a5c2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["GqhdRTcezqElebgnPfBz"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1687779298940 | 0 | 0.25 | LIBAoi7tpqeNLYM1xxJ1QJBQqW32 | 3100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5853781540571825 | dSoERiB1tvtzoG0vKFba | {"NO": 258.8861653122264, "YES": 221.62318260413224} | 0.6225300765155871 | will-the-ai-safety-summit-in-france | 157 | Will the AI Safety summit in France of 2024 weaken AI Safety commitments? | 1730501940000 | VkkTz1STTDSaTPYFGRAZ5rsl1Mm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712653643422 | Camille Berger🔸 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves to Yes if the number of previous commitments and proposals that are cancelled or denied is equal or superior to the number of new commitments related to AI Safety.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", ... | BINARY | {"day": -4.440892098500626e-16, "week": -4.440892098500626e-16, "month": -4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.131512328029608, "platformFee": 0.131512328029608, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | CamilleBerger | 1714334896966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdq7yHrq0Y48F_3a2s59AzZ3D1gy9uayf77BaifgJ_J2EQ=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1689527622566 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1712653643588}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1712653643586}, {"name": "AI Governance & Policy 🏛️", "slug": "ai-governance-policy", "groupId": "60b88... | ["ai-impacts", "ai-alignment", "ai-governance-policy", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714334893582 | 1713184701724 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5809260902505511 | pJP19N2migTWGGvMUt6H | {"NO": 81.280050750331, "YES": 2627.3512043619075} | 0 | will-linux-reach-over-2-market-shar | 4055.9518527694568 | Will Linux reach over 2% market share on Steam within a month? | 1714640090603 | T6Y0qr1r2TOQ736IPcGWn4n19YF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.417715839919165 | True | play | NO | public | 1712654726235 | Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.033842203240233, "platformFee": 26.033842203240233, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714640090603 | 620 | actualFix | 1714640090603 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsBbP6FuRsK_wyBeLGPkRzNE9TG2wCNZ8qnxdu57ZOEmrzriM_=s96-c | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712483604396 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712654726395}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712654726398}] | ["technology-default", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714636038882 | 1714636233481 | 0.04 | T6Y0qr1r2TOQ736IPcGWn4n19YF3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6950536715693111 | IT4LCmy0Y3bHW7hi16y1 | {"NO": 1173.3333333333333, "YES": 898.8079246634331} | 0.7484547590097781 | will-aipowered-autonomous-weapon-sy | 210 | Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years? | 2051202540000 | rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.621330430140155 | False | basic | public | 1712655044234 | Creative Culture | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CreativeCulture | 1712847747185 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJSJ_pIy5WVRd9SnIJGdeNMFY3agzeS8wm-mtjqZ-3=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711450883436 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712655044375}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1712655044384}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 17126550... | ["ai", "ai-alignment", "ai-safety", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712847743864 | 1712693486244 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.861052474944728 | 8VLRiiyz1Pz3LsEq5Pus | {"NO": 2996.2987808369935, "YES": 750.0825024169856} | 1 | will-there-be-7-or-more-goals-score-a40ba852ab62 | 5751.6879172078025 | Will there be 7 or more goals scored in the two legs of Real Madrid - Man. City combined? | 1713382481340 | 2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8861106998414465 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712655151121 | Mario F. Schlitzer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the match goes to penalty shootout, those will not count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07565182801901382} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9025261592708715, "platformFee": 1.9025261592708715, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713382481340 | 1040 | MarioFSchlitzer | 1713382481340 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c | 55 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711562515546 | 0 | [{"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1712655151254}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712655151255}, {"name": "Real Madrid", "slug": "real-madrid", "groupId": "91fe024b-6f73-43ab-910d-8ab03e9056e6", "create... | ["uefa", "sports-default", "real-madrid", "football", "soccer", "uefa-champions-league", "manchester-city"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713382470811 | 1712930414719 | 0.96 | 2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4225644499917561 | 8kYrcvgWyg8xfHeGxh6U | {"NO": 255.51188393888572, "YES": 413.4923013792622} | 0.3113908785446055 | will-cycling-legend-eddy-merckx-die | 187 | Will cycling legend Eddy Merckx die before December 31, 2024 | 1735685940000 | mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712657923145 | Brendan Troadec | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Edouard Louis Joseph Merckx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (IPA: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "['merks]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://simple.wikipe... | BINARY | {"day": -0.008960804051039273, "week": -0.059372771025865134, "month": -0.05937277102586502} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5239907992123116, "platformFee": 0.12848456872702313, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 315 | BrendanTroadec | 1720246002344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4Dn8vdzoY2wtYBN7Xr8wrM3Axwoa4inUKshOUOPUBnrw=s96-c | 10 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696918431012 | 0 | [{"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1712657923279}, {"name": "Belgium", "slug": "belgium", "groupId": "70529ede-adf9-4262-8911-434d7a3bd1d2", "createdTime": 1712657923272}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICx... | ["road-bicycle-racing", "belgium", "death-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720245999249 | 1712658339800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XT6foiJymlUyqMIQZTy7 | is-chatgptdalle-generating-an-image-f78baad2503e | 2311.3819676415783 | Is ChatGPT/DallE generating an image of a conservative or liberal politician? Round 2: white man | 1713931140000 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 46453350ce46 | public | 1712658184368 | VerySeriousPoster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I asked ChatGPT to generate an image of either of a conservative or liberal white, male politician giving a speech. I decided between the two via a coin flip. The correct answer will resolve Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.053324134153394, "platformFee": 10.053324134153394, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714085607456 | 960 | VerySeriousPoster | 1720053161621 | 0 | 45 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "19a9cdb20e3", "prob": 0.15230117765402895, "text": "Conservative", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 280.48747580561815, "userId": "wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1561.175734723064, "textFts": "'conserv':1", "contractId": "XT6foiJymlUyqMIQZTy7", "resolverId": "wUb31hi72zgol... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681990719923 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712658184597}, {"name": "DALLE3", "slug": "dalle3", "groupId": "2eecc88f-7aec-43e1-b9c4-d9349b466734", "createdTime": 1712658184593}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1712658184602... | ["ai", "dalle3", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 1713915646597 | 1714085635993 | {"46453350ce46": 100} | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4312329621567812 | gizG9xOjioF3pC1dc5rp | {"NO": 549.0026719596649, "YES": 247.88244962002676} | 1 | will-bitcoin-will-be-lower-than-600 | 1257.6193850260179 | Will Bitcoin will be lower than $60,000 at some point before May 1st, 2024? | 1713372771415 | zp0LeEih3caEBwHwiFqNUyvuvBU2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9567566670867942 | True | play | YES | public | 1712658544770 | Roland Kofler | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes expects risky assets, like crypto, will have a tough time until May", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hayes expects this next Bitcoin halving could instead \"add... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4240465207405745} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713372792959 | 400 | RolandKofler | 1713372771415 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjU-S4M01EYAztImLM3Bi-Mm1sd--2WNSyGCULSgi9pUfr8RPmWyKRaQe9xsn7e6k-l4CEkUU_fa8GONwv0qlfjh51L4zF7Hs7Qh40VyaoZVf36VIpSFi085-is93WmEGA01L1XbkZkwhx8QtLCoauTp_NIJyIGpRvnshKo3D4_RnxrGl-7tcXB3GmlswF9-xCEUxvMYtCrkv3U7eWjL38KugKd4eavzQnj2d9GIqV6u8OTwIHDBZ7wyTjNdnbhBTtlmUwErdNv3cVLbh9FJm-6... | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710629239617 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712658544928}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1712658544930}, {"name": "Bitcoin Halvening", "slug": "bitcoin-halvening", "groupId": "9b47a1b4-e... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices", "bitcoin-halvening"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713372728711 | 0.63 | zp0LeEih3caEBwHwiFqNUyvuvBU2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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NH9XHrGanbn00Zzx1vJy | which-challenge-has-humanitys-progr | 0 | Which challenge has humanity's progress been more impressive on? | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712660184328 | Shaked Koplewitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture?wprov=sfla1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture?wprov=sfla1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-40... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ShakedKoplewitz | 1712813906538 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1655740589463 | 0 | 0.25 | 1712813905812 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4563513946008772 | JJaLygwzRNrijCuTRVBf | {"NO": 83.797376386709, "YES": 438.05524782808124} | 0.1383594335629261 | will-the-alpine-ibex-capra-ibex-bec | 261 | Will the Alpine Ibex (Capra ibex) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712660935827 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Alpine Ibex is a species of goat native to the Alps of Europe. In the 19th century it went through a population bottleneck with fewer than 100 individuals. Now the number of mature individuals is estimated by the IUCN at 53,000. This market wil... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4723760859593775, "platformFee": 1.4723760859593775, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326439206 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-988e-28474c7761f2", "createdTime": 1712660936047}, {"name": "Extinction Risk", "slug": "extinction-risk", "groupId": "19a4aeaa-d9f9-4cc7-9a85-a775269ceaa5", "createdTime": 1712660936043}, {"name": "Zoology", "slug": "zoology", "... | ["environment-243810591da2", "extinction-risk", "zoology", "biodiversity", "animals"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326435952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eaOtfRtu7JiUcUB19iMQ | what-will-be-true-of-llama-3-in-the | 12505.276175568753 | What will be true of LLAMA 3? (LMSYS Rank, Context Window, Launch Date, Parameters) [1000Ṁ] | 1735685940000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712661053936 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LMSYS Ranks: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "We will use the rank determined by ChatBot Arena, which means that two companies can tie rank #1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 70.73458374413968, "platformFee": 54.831976692798904, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2870 | Soli | 1719936692564 | 0 | 56 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "d281a641e1fe", "prob": 0.11439765880874081, "text": "reach #1 on LMSYS", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.27614575947176, "userId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 396.95108453026114, "textFts": "'1':2 'lmsys':4 'reach':1", "contractId": "eaOtfRtu7JiUcUB19iMQ", "createdTime": 1712661053937... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712661054164}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1712661054161}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712661054156}] | ["technology-default", "llms", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1719936689501 | 1719730771309 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6205681740742217 | 1GIMdn60IMxbNrlze3x3 | {"NO": 383.61299509353324, "YES": 222.5514703985615} | 0.7381618115821188 | navier-stonks-ie-will-the-prize-for | 165.04131869113462 | Navier Stonks (ie Will the prize for the resolution of the Navier-Stokes millenium problem be taken ?) | 253379915940000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712664816347 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the 1 million dollar prize pledged by the Clay Institute of Mathematics for the resolution of the Navier Stokes problem is taken, then this resolves YES. (Typically : someone solves the problem and accepts the money)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | Mich | 1712940587356 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1712664816752}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1712768512969}] | ["science-default", "mathematics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712940584133 | 1712691000631 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | lMMaHZJD76xCxJUO2vDT | {"NO": 99.99999999999993, "YES": 100.00000000000004} | 1 | daily-coinflip-f1f7056c5284 | 3084.093864601128 | Daily coinflip | 1712807940000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.04000533461369969 | True | play | YES | public | 1712665541766 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 133)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4999999999999999} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712827631853 | 100 | Traveel | 1712807940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1712665541934}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1712665541956}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1712807606853 | 1712827623615 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.34795054594896785 | tlWp1ADTKNH94auwFiQG | {"NO": 74.11877633284593, "YES": 332.9777330652025} | 0.10617068714991143 | will-lorxus-become-infected-with-co | 193 | Will Lorxus fall ill with COVID by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712665910974 | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the time Lorxus first went into initial lockdown on 2020-03-17, they have never once caught COVID-19, even through multiple moves, job changes, trains rides, and flights. They got vaccinated as soon as they were able to, in late March of 2021... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.011133467398789955, "platformFee": 0.011133467398789955, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Lorxus | 1714633670861 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678631188381 | 0 | [{"name": "V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting", "slug": "v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population", "groupId": "2mbh3A1ZXsAE6pUOqSFE", "createdTime": 1712665911138}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1712665911137}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "... | ["v-vulpes-var-mathematica-population", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714633667609 | 1712666670813 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
q4D8mLowAzUn80jkCA9A | when-will-imdbs-top-10-films-includ | 599.3910801914375 | When will IMDb's top 10 films stably include a different movie (starting 4/2024)? | 1893473940000 | 6yyO7c9thMah6jtdVEzLAH3LLe72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712666019623 | Tsunombie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IMDb keeps a list called \"IMDb Top 250 Movies: As rated by regular IMDb voters.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://m.imdb.com/chart/top/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33402417819319163, "platformFee": 0.33402417819319163, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 530 | Tsunombie | 1715602271304 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "627c9cab0d4b", "prob": 0.11889906946521085, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.51390163889127, "userId": "6yyO7c9thMah6jtdVEzLAH3LLe72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.6076657262841, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "q4D8mLowAzUn80jkCA9A", "createdTime": 1712666019623, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1671540327254 | 0 | [{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1712666019827}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1712666019855}] | ["television-film", "movies"] | 0.25 | 1715602268053 | 1712702587180 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zV3EUpDVmXvFQ5VtRkcD | when-will-sp-500-drop-below-5000-wh | 71950.74679506518 | When will S&P 500 drop below $5000? (which day?) | 1717991940000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712666591832 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:deco... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 195.8143733369513, "platformFee": 195.8143733369513, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 9060 | AmmonLam | 1713542117658 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 18 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "d3f314a25186", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Before the end of April 9th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.200786544550965, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 752, "textFts": "'2024':7 '9th':6 'april':5 'end':3", "contractId": "zV3EUpDVmXvFQ5VtRkcD", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId":... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712666609323}] | ["stocks"] | 0.25 | 1713540144678 | 1713542117138 | False | old | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48730790469143803 | zuBc4M3Y3Vj8RKmyx5Xe | {"NO": 173.50789487406593, "YES": 146.24736960328997} | 0.5300000000000005 | will-the-next-french-aircraft-carri | 68.08572535308869 | Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman? | 1830376740000 | Dy1KeRQcZbQgI7oeMHJbsrBpOii2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712667285504 | sortwie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From Wikipedia: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"In December 2020, President Macron announced that construction of the next generation carrier would begin in around 2025 with sea trials to start in about 2036.\" ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | sortwie | 1713016606156 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjUOTnGv06_d41TEAmkKaLChX2qkmdzsAyrh-Rupw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645585703409 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713016602864 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17785966463464217 | C8kthc46S62iZudr08nh | {"NO": 174.31546668874967, "YES": 99.00561695488564} | 0.2758330502278244 | will-parasitic-language-games-maint | 40 | Will "Parasitic Language Games: maintaining ambigui..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712667532232 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | LessWrong | 1712690227843 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712667532399}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712690224604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46571199423263704 | jseAIyiNKGS73xj2XoDE | {"NO": 885.7789267837727, "YES": 1109.2581385903682} | 0.41039155415749146 | will-andrej-karpathy-start-or-cofou | 1494.1686709629455 | Will Andrej Karpathy start or cofound his own AI company before EOY 2024? | 1735793940000 | ovdVC9bbwyRytStXPTYi8xVEohD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.679034901005714 | False | basic | public | 1712667577639 | Philip R | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Andrej Karpathy is a prominent AI researcher.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "From 2015 to 2017, Andrej Karpathy was a founding member of OpenAI. From 2017 to 2022, he was the Senior Director of AI at Tesl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.034837325380748185} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.934624996873772, "platformFee": 10.458012279137382, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PhilipR | 1718916761820 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJMlc_wK2X8aX3cKY4ZAZJuJwv-SItpTptpjWs8efzKuvyG=s96-c | 35 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704850789435 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712667577881}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1712667577883}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "creat... | ["ai", "startups", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718916758676 | 1712667644819 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2fSAjVO8T4ABbqzmBp5S | would-you-participate-in-betting-ma | 0 | Would you participate in betting markets on Helldivers II Major Orders? | 1712811540000 | qMqjd5teTohldlf37qxHCbsRAxU2 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712667969598 | TheOtherKC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712811540917 | TheOtherKC | 1712667969878 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696262801266 | 0 | [{"name": "Helldivers 2", "slug": "helldivers-2", "groupId": "99ac61be-5ba4-4e7b-8c4c-0bd6a159d50f", "createdTime": 1712667969863}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712667969877}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", ... | ["helldivers-2", "gaming", "video-games"] | 0.25 | ["9c245b305cd7"] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15552040085734437 | Fx0mI8IB2CRhxmSADuo2 | {"NO": 153.46041363056253, "YES": 81.67879603827669} | 0.2570619699691726 | will-a-stylized-dialogue-on-john-we | 25 | Will "A stylized dialogue on John Wentworth's claim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712668936694 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | LessWrong | 1712686438995 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712668937197}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1712686435676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26234997275349214 | G6uua1rq01OKqV5bhHZD | {"NO": 294.44835950537055, "YES": 9674.283862786951} | 0 | will-civil-war-2024-have-90-critics | 14711.3015646405 | Will "Civil War" (2024) have >=90% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | 1713596340000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0557531001785616 | True | basic | NO | public | 1712669385688 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Civil War\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/civil_war_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 act... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01070890517793728} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5451994248253522, "platformFee": 0.5451994248253522, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713613636336 | 1030 | mattyb | 1713613690468 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712669385896}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1712669385914}, {"name": "Rotten Tomatoes", "slug": "rotten-tomatoes"... | ["entertainment", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "rotten-tomatoes", "culture-default", "politics-default", "us-politics", "television-film", "boxoffice", "movies"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713579703599 | 1713613689762 | 0.01 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33343729938445343 | R6b6OlKzgt8kOrod10lw | {"NO": 1483.8242612776037, "YES": 742.259286312662} | 0.4999999999999998 | scott-alexander-is-planning-a-covid | 129860.93938787215 | Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak? | 1767340740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.916007564792917 | False | basic | public | 1712669613502 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Scott Alexander does not organize and bet at least $10,000 on a COVID origins debate which concludes before January 1st 2026, this market will be cancelled and all mana will be returned. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0.033742620823238034, "week": -0.05000000000000038, "month": 0.09860805874865025} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1359.1672852411086, "platformFee": 809.138409242144, "liquidityFee": 0} | 7926.195787948861 | 1200 | Joshua | 1720230114884 | 0 | 129 | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1712669613656}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712669613658}, {"name": "COVID origins", "slug": "covid-origins", "groupId": "KOFIQGdsNjYASSCwLHa... | ["scott-alexander", "culture-default", "covid-origins", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720230111719 | 1719549741296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
m2xHwl4w8BOZ6UfKSHJA | scott-alexander-is-planning-a-covid-9aaacc1866ce | 2292.839960510082 | Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. Will there be a debate, and if so what will the judges conclude? | 1767340740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712669892721 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In his", "type": "text"}, {"text": " latest post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-5d7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-pr... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.710176585793867, "platformFee": 8.267498977628494, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Joshua | 1719842931646 | 0 | 32 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "544db290833c", "prob": 0.7584031175690363, "text": "No COVID debate organized by Scott Alexander with at least $10k concludes before 2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 703.4655728558378, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 224.0959792521047, "textFts": "'10k':11 '2026':14 'alexand'... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712669892964}, {"name": "COVID origins", "slug": "covid-origins", "groupId": "KOFIQGdsNjYASSCwLHaQ", "createdTime": 1712669892978}, {"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXB... | ["culture-default", "covid-origins", "scott-alexander", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1719842928497 | 1712671372759 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xXLeEwPXLS3wIe9ggDbx | which-will-happen-first-civil-war-2 | 85 | Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? | 4133998740000 | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712670266050 | Snarflak | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a third world war break out first?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, accord... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9481415352699849, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | Snarflak | 1720053161621 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "326ab90a52df", "prob": 0.33663949057834575, "text": "Second United States Civil War", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.19486751823828, "userId": "4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 171.8206964859661, "textFts": "'civil':4 'second':1 'state':3 'unit':2 'war':5", "contractId"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702869818126 | 0 | [{"name": "civil war", "slug": "civil-war", "groupId": "5cba603f-13a6-4d73-a733-a095108323b3", "createdTime": 1712670266257}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1712670266263}, {"name": "ww3", "slug": "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "groupId": "29708... | ["civil-war", "united-states", "ww3-0de6f68758b8", "wars"] | 0.25 | 1717113249929 | 1717162798032 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2rtqKMxvb151yqfxHesi | who-would-you-rather-be-someone-wit | 0 | Who would you rather be? Someone with taste or talent? | 1715291940000 | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1712670334865 | Soli ꩜ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i haven't thought deeply about this one, the question just crossed my mind a couple of seconds ago and I found it intriguing enough to create a poll ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715291940582 | Soli | 1712937241162 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1695418453844 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1712670335001}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712670335019}] | ["personal-goals", "business"] | 0.25 | 1712937240650 | ["7a54f372f542"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hnw3zh6jqmmM8RaQnRoT | which-will-be-the-first-country-to | 425 | Which will be the first country to nationalize an Amazon Web Services data center? | 1893473940000 | wBYfXajsCqaOxDkEqzCz8U3rFNB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712670881584 | Jonah Weissman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the first country that satisfies the conditions in this question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/JonahWeissman/will-any-amazon-web-services-data-c", "frameBorder": 0}},... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9237789697501558, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | JonahWeissman | 1718913940753 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0R08lEWjgZ6q7AFz1nPa-4Q72avJiJrSHlFNvOTae=s96-c | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "851ac3bc9150", "prob": 0.009235497423003336, "text": "Argentina", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.389098177820415, "userId": "wBYfXajsCqaOxDkEqzCz8U3rFNB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 792.6867222556305, "textFts": "'argentina':1", "contractId": "hnw3zh6jqmmM8RaQnRoT", "createdTime": 1712670881584, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700447808317 | 0 | [{"name": "Amazon", "slug": "amazon", "groupId": "GtXXC8KCkQZSzzhZBgIu", "createdTime": 1712670881807}, {"name": "cloud", "slug": "cloud", "groupId": "o86wcaDH3dIkKqXPKrYG", "createdTime": 1712670881822}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17126708... | ["amazon", "cloud", "technology-default", "international-affairs"] | 0.25 | 1718913937594 | True | prob-desc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.439390098133349 | NnD4RU8lzhsr5p3NGBVu | {"NO": 885.5555295411679, "YES": 1151.0670335482994} | 0.37616285873773536 | will-scott-alexander-make-a-6-digit | 320.31312766956484 | Will Scott Alexander make a 6+ digit bet related to COVID, by EOY 2024? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.666434408220677 | False | basic | public | 1712671016200 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being will... | BINARY | {"day": -0.018255722952634, "week": -0.018255722952634, "month": -0.03802917162599628} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.000077438544736, "platformFee": 1.2836572323563988, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1720204022537 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1712671016350}, {"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1712671016351}] | ["covid-d7a9361d772d", "scott-alexander"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720204019200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1357897828621267 | Gk8DLryc0OVvq2uCNEii | {"NO": 61.225609419867226, "YES": 22219.68756468821} | 0 | will-arsenal-beat-bayern-munich-dur | 26075.90104331612 | Will Arsenal beat Bayern Munich during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | 1712698760148 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.37502415230902 | True | play | NO | public | 1712671154954 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competiti... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00043276773727985704} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712698760148 | 522.5 | FranklinBaldo | 1712698763745 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671155114}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712696039692 | 1712698763185 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23355947820000889 | C6QXFtE65WA4AZxh1zrY | {"NO": 30.278619158561277, "YES": 22139.25163882345} | 0 | will-real-madrid-beat-manchester-ci-b5d43346a0d2 | 29100.041238407306 | Will Real Madrid beat Manchester City during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | 1712698763609 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5384315911516326 | True | play | NO | public | 1712671156499 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Real Madrid vs Manchester City", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Com... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0004165922687784215} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712698763609 | 480 | FranklinBaldo | 1712698766037 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671156647}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712696252933 | 1712698765424 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3090324961435715 | IhXPWa3L1pqusPotA3Mk | {"NO": 14.29251378102551, "YES": 4194.499519440182} | 0 | will-argentinos-jrs-beat-racing-mon | 7270.624365848209 | Will Argentinos JRS beat Racing Montevideo during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1712710800000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.347714190370971 | True | play | NO | public | 1712671157660 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Argentinos JRS vs Racing Montevideo", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "�... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0015216460805114339} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712724993312 | 180 | FranklinBaldo | 1712724996193 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671158052}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712707447723 | 1712724995586 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7565407295866434 | 4OXqOsT1gP61icfaLlAA | {"NO": 11694.692537169049, "YES": 14.85208061107064} | 1 | will-corinthians-beat-nacional-asun | 11672.520054366567 | Will Corinthians beat Nacional Asuncion during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1712710800000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.653536377973761 | True | play | YES | public | 1712671159040 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Corinthians vs Nacional Asuncion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 C... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0004085216118134838} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712721384356 | 160 | FranklinBaldo | 1712721386043 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671159207}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712706846267 | 1712721385553 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5921109228909941 | 0L7R0FZgdnkMe01Onaqj | {"NO": 335.2405147480041, "YES": 85.0831420842166} | 1 | will-estudiantes-lp-beat-the-strong | 180 | Will Estudiantes L.P. beat The Strongest during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ Copa Libertadores 🌎 | 1712706383666 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.280240399209861 | True | play | YES | public | 1712671160230 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Estudiantes L.P. vs The Strongest", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1488159557092602} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712707283854 | 160 | FranklinBaldo | 1712707287480 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671160379}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712704820283 | 1712707286168 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5905378311346126 | eRwLopWTPo2GAGS5nfUh | {"NO": 351.27932800823544, "YES": 124.05347344563681} | 0 | will-gremio-beat-huachipato-during | 157 | Will Gremio beat Huachipato during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ Copa Libertadores 🌎 | 1712706385246 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.814091400222486 | True | play | NO | public | 1712671161601 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Gremio vs Huachipato", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.803301527932445} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712707287117 | 200 | FranklinBaldo | 1712709381078 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712671161767}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712704828258 | 1712709380501 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZS3leHnzlUdO9pfQoK7b | who-will-be-the-last-roberts-court | 100 | Who will be the last Roberts Court justice to leave office? | 1712673482201 | OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712671449150 | MF | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve a justice as NO when they leave office, either by stepping down, being removed or by death.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will add new judges as long as they are sworn in wh... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712673482201 | 290 | costlySignal | 1712673947233 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ebd9a53c7b67", "prob": 0.05787839922115807, "text": "John Roberts", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.86576374767501, "userId": "OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 176.868587822002, "textFts": "'john':1 'robert':2", "contractId": "ZS3leHnzlUdO9pfQoK7b", "resolverId": "OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659482499752 | 0 | [{"name": "US Judiciary", "slug": "us-judiciary", "groupId": "fn3K66FEEdix860EzTJU", "createdTime": 1712671449507}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712671449518}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime"... | ["us-judiciary", "politics-default", "scotus", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1712672104827 | 1712673946606 | OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
s1fQyyPnffjS0eSNKftF | programming-language-stock | 2558.863521682472 | Programming language Stock | 253402297140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712672273669 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market never resolves. Trade according to sentiment on each programming language", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.24944392176267, "platformFee": 7.706532930544179, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2420 | AmmonLam | 1719887876186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 39 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6004779ebf82", "prob": 0.1310169731886351, "text": "Python", "index": 0, "poolNo": 153.6937099817147, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1019.3887253790092, "textFts": "'python':1", "contractId": "s1fQyyPnffjS0eSNKftF", "createdTime": 1712672273670, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1712672273891}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712672273900}, {"name": "Programming languages", "slug": "programming-languages", "groupId": "ab21... | ["programming", "technology-default", "programming-languages"] | 0.25 | 1719887872506 | 1714269759171 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBKMKY17AKrc2n1c5iZR | in-its-billboard-hot-100-debut-how-087c10b9f003 | 17141.67893452221 | In its Billboard Hot 100 debut, how many songs from Taylor Swift’s new album will be in the Top 10? | 1714480406525 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | ac9401872471 | public | 1712673166064 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the first edition of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Billboard Hot 100", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-40... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.044466385497275, "platformFee": 15.044466385497275, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714480406525 | 800 | mattyb | 1714480406525 | 0 | 25 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "fa07c1bd6e47", "prob": 0.0003899874030149418, "text": "5 or fewer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5978990715466352, "userId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6658.896937588858, "textFts": "'5':1 'fewer':3", "contractId": "NBKMKY17AKrc2n1c5iZR", "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5zW2RofbGNE", "createdTime": 1712673166293}, {"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1712673166292}, {"name": "Streaming", "slug": "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "groupId": "aqYOc680xI6KmGP1... | ["music-artists", "taylor-swift", "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "music-industry", "billboard-hot-100", "music-f213cbf1eab5"] | 0.25 | 1714480395803 | 1714480377538 | {"ac9401872471": 100} | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5nW0fxQP0uKu3drwDhU3 | who-will-frances-next-aircraft-carr | 57.27609666949147 | Who will France’s next aircraft carrier be named after? | 1735707540000 | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712681300156 | Arky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve once France officially announces who their second aircraft carrier will be named after. The close date will be extended as needed. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 255 | Arky | 1713075608690 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "434ba4828be5", "prob": 0.1222363213918385, "text": "François Mitterand", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.159835120152543, "userId": "RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 123.22262178596861, "textFts": "'françoi':1 'mitterand':2", "contractId": "5nW0fxQP0uKu3drwDhU3", "createdTime": 171268130015... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696787160354 | 0 | [{"name": "Military", "slug": "military", "groupId": "bqdgUcWdGMqqFAy2DBKt", "createdTime": 1712681300594}, {"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1712681300593}, {"name": "Aircraft Carriers", "slug": "aircraft-carriers", "groupId": "cc4d1ff7-8c87-4a47-a732-1b68ba2f0d2b",... | ["military", "france", "aircraft-carriers"] | 0.25 | 1713075605321 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.04397357242425179 | rcjFVZlaOHk41AOj4FgM | {"NO": 896.3184852928471, "YES": 1823.7890609174813} | 0.02210556267748518 | if-joe-biden-loses-the-2024-preside | 2844.232128955294 | If Joe Biden loses the 2024 presidential election, will he claim there was enough voter fraud to change the results? | 1736229540000 | frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712689639019 | Mana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden loses the 2024 election and as a result claims that he lost due to there being enough electoral fraud in the election to change the results from what should have been a victory for him, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this mark... | BINARY | {"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.0003137591415740548} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0088537702094076, "platformFee": 0.9699563570154618, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mana | 1717656627673 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706696952680 | 0 | [{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712689639165}, {"name": "Electoral College", "slug": "electoral-college", "groupId": "EgzriJ7oOJvX7aO4LKI3", "createdTime": 1712689639180}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presiden... | ["the-life-of-biden", "electoral-college", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717656624472 | 1712733743433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | uS03jeR6mwL84y7Rptdj | {"NO": 48.54368932038834, "YES": 206} | 0.1907086734304676 | will-lois-mcmaster-bujold-write-ano | 106 | Will Lois McMaster Bujold write another work set in the Vorkosigan universe? | 1756796340000 | X20TaQ1LMpVYDoznm0Fh8anfXM93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712689846120 | Nathaniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This can include a novel, novella, or short story.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | NathanielMagilnick | 1712689870658 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfTTHVwQ0yKH5OgvNefv6GU87HBngk7WqAgfNfa8KnW8DE=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692290932797 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712689867214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K0E7qnsa7qIVMQKAsN6g | wyeth-vs-vigee-le-brun-which-artwor | 8920.591514582165 | WYETH vs VIGÉE LE BRUN: which artwork will sell for more at their upcoming Christie's auctions? (pics included) | 1713490534372 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | d0a58e82c4d8 | public | 1712689855600 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is a duel between two works by titans of the art world—both soon to be up for auction at Christie's. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.348811249774668, "platformFee": 7.348811249774668, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713490534372 | 280 | Ziddletwix | 1720053161621 | 0 | 10 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "37d0d17cead6", "prob": 0.0008274590237967846, "text": "NEWELL CONVERS WYETH - I ax yer parding, Mister Phinn", "color": "#795548", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.016034999185649, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7264.476915311699, "textFts": "'ax':5 'conver':2 'mister':8 'newel':... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1712689855812}, {"name": "Art Auction", "slug": "art-auction", "groupId": "1b0a049a-b8bf-451b-aff3-ccaaa5a0f9b3", "createdTime": 1712689855823}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "gro... | ["culture-default", "art-auction", "entertainment", "arts", "economics-default", "art-dealer"] | 0.25 | 1713490513555 | 1713490599262 | {"d0a58e82c4d8": 100} | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
drnbVYYRVeeAl8wEZfkl | find-me-a-good-example-of-a-dumb-wh | 0 | Find me a good example of a dumb white person | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712690196965 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm writing an article about the alt right, and I need an example of an obviously stupid white person to contrast with some smart black people. My first thought was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this Destiny debate with NoBullshit", "type": "text",... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IsaacKing | 1712956288385 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | [] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1646352460573 | 0 | [{"name": "Culture War", "slug": "culture-war", "groupId": "DEHK9bp6pMlniVYuHPKI", "createdTime": 1712690197126}, {"name": "Theory of Intelligence", "slug": "theory-of-intelligence", "groupId": "b2dfb680-98a9-49e6-8d62-b625b89f4e1c", "createdTime": 1712690197134}] | ["culture-war", "theory-of-intelligence"] | 0.25 | 1712956287434 | 200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8ozMQSUo56i26dCtUNfO | {"NO": 94.33962264150942, "YES": 106} | 0.47089847428894327 | will-mdiscs-be-readable-after-100-y | 6 | Will M-Discs be readable after 100 years? | 4742773140000 | g26yWuQJtWfjh12tJE4RArEzLi33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712690241369 | Logan Turner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "M-Disc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-DISC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", ... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | LoganTurner | 1712690254930 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678562372458 | 0 | [{"name": "Information preservation", "slug": "information-preservation", "groupId": "NI4m7FaA3unxPRPfMfrG", "createdTime": 1712690241533}, {"name": "Long-term Markets", "slug": "longterm-markets", "groupId": "a972d1b7-f585-4e40-af47-ed32ebc23e2c", "createdTime": 1712690241543}, {"name": "Computer hardware", "slug": "c... | ["information-preservation", "longterm-markets", "computer-hardware", "archiving"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712690251722 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38367121825026484 | 0UTHQqdtBCfRAJqFAQ1Z | {"NO": 202.3727915778276, "YES": 179.40923141249078} | 0.4125212197371694 | will-scott-alexander-release-anothe | 293.58452819866375 | Will Scott Alexander release another (50k+ words) fictional work before 2035? | 2051240340000 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712690316822 | FinalDestination | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a serial work is ongoing at market close, resolves based only on what's been publicly released.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.4702597228920316, "platformFee": 1.3933890934369073, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | FinalDestination | 1717642983165 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbcwJryU_7ebr4G2XN7Qn9ZdwxgpkJQeidLCiE90ak=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705517282671 | 0 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1712690316983}, {"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1712690317254}, {"name": "📖 ACX", "slug": "acx", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1712690317... | ["books", "scott-alexander", "acx"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717642979987 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.74559969963251 | KldntyIHAohVbudGSnQm | {"NO": 1121.958314509813, "YES": 939.0782041628552} | 0.7778553820495757 | will-gpt5-have-an-estimated-iq-high | 422 | Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101? | 1767205740000 | AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.618931532455388 | False | basic | public | 1712690501438 | Rohan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maxim Lott's analysis, when Claude 3 was released, is the basis for this question. A similar analysis will likely be published when GPT-5 is released, and that will be the basis for resolving this prediction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.0008608473623723523} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.735296799957716, "platformFee": 0.7393115280969127, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | rohanvisme | 1719340704350 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWlYVjuKvQV6xJAihIIjyXTSmEZYNu0nfcUSAo097Usx24YiIq=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712588512673 | 0 | [{"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d2a-ce2e-4905-ac9b-112007e62b30", "createdTime": 1712690501790}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1712690501792}, {"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId... | ["artificial-intelligence", "gpt5-speculation", "gpt5"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719340700797 | 1719327384422 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21633622521048138 | CIwQQH7PLWMJO2mzeGuS | {"NO": 948.5666108462722, "YES": 1039.7236598427914} | 0.20118499872513743 | will-an-ai-swe-model-score-higher-t | 450 | Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024? | 1735669740000 | AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.683433694898763 | False | basic | public | 1712690568216 | Rohan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 0.035333136292732104, "month": 0.035333136292731965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.278885365585685, "platformFee": 0.5730077390027509, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | rohanvisme | 1720028344189 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWlYVjuKvQV6xJAihIIjyXTSmEZYNu0nfcUSAo097Usx24YiIq=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712588512673 | 0 | [{"name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "groupId": "7f9f7d2a-ce2e-4905-ac9b-112007e62b30", "createdTime": 1712690568412}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1712690568416}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": ... | ["artificial-intelligence", "technical-ai-timelines", "ai-impacts", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720028340799 |
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