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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.3304175761469862 | yTtLht67qsKxl7nV70mQ | {"NO": 944.1104457462479, "YES": 1091.6177398566876} | 0.299124599964828 | will-taylor-swift-be-worth-10b-or-m | 172.40915573991694 | Will Taylor Swift be worth $10B or more at the end of 2032? | 1988168340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.601721271534139 | False | basic | public | 1712531909277 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She was recently put on the Forbes billionaire's list at $1B", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jAXsXXLpk7i8Ws79F7ei", "label": "/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-be... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1713329953532 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5zW2RofbGNE", "createdTime": 1712531909436}, {"name": "๐ธ Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1712531909426}, {"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7... | ["music-artists", "taylor-swift", "billionaires", "celebrities", "entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "wealth"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713329950202 | 1712532805172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49168765773162537 | jAXsXXLpk7i8Ws79F7ei | {"NO": 189.22889406320263, "YES": 255.8787708441957} | 0.4170248249747315 | will-taylor-swift-be-worth-5b-or-mo | 91 | Will Taylor Swift be worth $5B or more at the end of 2032? | 1988168340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712531917825 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She was recently put on the Forbes billionaire's list at $1B", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "yTtLht67qsKxl7nV70mQ", "label": "/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-be... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3168981755231107, "platformFee": 0.3168981755231107, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | strutheo | 1714751409938 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ธ Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1712531917978}, {"name": "Music Artists", "slug": "music-artists", "groupId": "2j0sKR6KW5zW2RofbGNE", "createdTime": 1712531917985}, {"name": "Billionaires", "slug": "billionaires", "groupId": "d7b8968a-3418-44f3-baa7... | ["taylor-swift", "music-artists", "billionaires", "celebrities", "entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "wealth"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714751406655 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AFXvvyk5Yls1ChOWf3Fu | the-tesla-robotaxi-unveil-on-88-cou | 196 | The Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8 could mark a new era for autonomous transportation, but what will it be? | 1723244340000 | NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712531988190 | H. E. L. O - T | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk announced that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tesla", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will unveil its ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "robotaxi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " this summer. T... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | WillHenry | 1712735908198 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWillHenry%2FboLlcTpR1s.gondra_aguirre-1971478879?alt=media&token=9dd97b51-04f9-4cd7-a8f8-9c12d9cedfde | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a331ba3b69db", "prob": 0.09639312144662907, "text": "A software update", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.33492669931411, "userId": "NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 209.3717175520655, "textFts": "'softwar':2 'updat':3", "contractId": "AFXvvyk5Yls1ChOWf3Fu", "createdTime": 1712531988190, "pr... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705284847437 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla Robotaxi", "slug": "tesla-robotaxi", "groupId": "5576d5af-3f37-4aa8-a026-36bfeb101417", "createdTime": 1712531988449}, {"name": "๐ Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1712531988455}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-... | ["tesla-robotaxi", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "cars", "twitter", "tesla-ai-day", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.25 | 1712735904925 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18734249812925222 | CRXaT2XMMJ8StP4iwBHs | {"NO": 132.72927325830491, "YES": 746.3519281925924} | 0.03938241532983879 | will-biden-need-nebraskas-second-di | 860.7949965208051 | Will Biden need Nebraska's second district to win reelection? | 1735711140000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712532376024 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any of the following happen:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden wins reelection with exactly 270 electoral votes, in... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.014133889839021826, "platformFee": 0.014133889839021826, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | PlasmaBallin | 1713916322744 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "Nebraska", "slug": "nebraska", "groupId": "6086f6da-df13-45eb-b1c6-e86337791be9", "createdTime": 1712532376192}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712532376199}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-... | ["nebraska", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713916319393 | 1712639848040 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34390677155939325 | sAmFG9ofVUXocqhWvj0H | {"NO": 31.939628315569507, "YES": 1657.4491921022386} | 0 | will-one-team-win-7-or-more-1wt-rac | 2849.8534337061215 | Will one team win 7 or more 1.WT races in February through April 2024? | 1713723665253 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712532435776 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 12 1.WT races that take place in February, March, and April 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will one team win 7 or more of these?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010000000000000014} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.31983618432323857, "platformFee": 0.31983618432323857, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713723665253 | 140 | Eliza | 1713723665253 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฒ Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1712532435922}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712532435937}, {"name": "๐ฒ Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXz... | ["road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default", "peloton-discord"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713709309275 | 1713107778248 | 0.01 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wkt0389text5DwUJiH77 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-57 | 484.04341213527164 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 57) | 1712612298119 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712532581726 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712612634438 | 165 | komplexkonjugat | 1712613188308 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3c90637be35f", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 368.95285072531544, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.7365946574406, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712532581864}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1712532581870}] | ["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"] | 0.25 | 1712583693156 | 1712613187734 | 0.99 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36823539981145476 | aBCConJ4t9hOlizjZI3r | {"NO": 918.934258905279, "YES": 1128.8848121699566} | 0.32178834525105343 | will-i-get-my-discord-account-back | 751.7820229551236 | Will I get my Discord account back? | 1735711140000 | WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.654651684516883 | False | basic | public | 1712532597297 | Pi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My Discord was hacked! I sent a ticket to Discord support two days ago and they still haven't gotten back to me. I have half a year of nitro on this account so I won't give up too easily. Resolves at the end of the year, or when I get my account ba... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011329227180987111} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.520554067902994, "platformFee": 2.9711076550060236, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mudPi314 | 1718672658260 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1688590877752 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1712532597462}] | ["personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718672655215 | 1718416034496 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5089499379165661 | EkEhaEMgf8rSUj5z8Fbp | {"NO": 158.9021511057276, "YES": 123.45249315653844} | 0.571564166820359 | will-another-llm-prompting-challeng | 56 | Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712532689695 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See Taelin's $10k LLM prompting challenge", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1776677635491344744"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any non-private LLM prompting challenge that en... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.0038942493853640903} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.038596387710156145, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Bayesian | 1719073589497 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Challenge", "slug": "challenge", "groupId": "6ca53874-81ca-4d39-a80d-68fd796bb943", "createdTime": 1712532689858}, {"name": "Prize", "slug": "prize", "groupId": "af701b55-20df-44c6-9828-f2861ad1869e", "createdTime": 1712532689866}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdT... | ["challenge", "prize", "llms", "2024-3d9da60b52f8"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073586433 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5333104922285058 | LT0gOIZscXUee0XtbJ2x | {"NO": 9.68664309285603, "YES": 1430.148703577172} | 0 | will-chris-get-to-bed-by-1045pm-at-3c4e752dd704 | 1293.1041966331368 | Will Chris get to bed by 10:45pm at least 5 times this week? | 1713123540000 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712533171785 | emile.chat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715614404672 | 140 | emile | 1713123540000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691876598453 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713029398127 | 0.01 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09204019598306608 | pHUMxZmAs3xn8oFxvob6 | {"NO": 930.39561239555, "YES": 1162.7385370130796} | 0.07502827419398696 | will-a-major-city-be-temporarily-ab | 1432.0575659823742 | Will a major city be temporarily abandoned this year, from Apr 7 onwards? | 1735707540000 | 3YR49JAndvZGxM1zz1nARN00sX32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.294993898669116 | False | basic | public | 1712533457544 | Benjamin Idelevich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Major city: >400,000 people", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Temporarily abandoned:>90% leave/die", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be for any reason, war, disaster, aliens, wtv.", ... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BenjaminIdelevich | 1712833760995 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK7FYRVb1QM7Z6j3VlehM8inNICpkH9YwhQG9JgnxNfuN0YFaYZ=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712368175788 | 0 | [{"name": "โ๏ธ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1712533457671}, {"name": "Cities", "slug": "cities", "groupId": "db0aedaa-24d0-4d9a-a9b4-08b48286106e", "createdTime": 1712533457673}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "cre... | ["wars", "cities", "natural-disasters", "death-markets", "politics-default", "world-default", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712833757744 | 1712534993495 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5296694364291882 | Bm0fLKxtaZQBW9rwisqs | {"NO": 1038.9730003490488, "YES": 957.7095340699522} | 0.5498985502305869 | will-scottalexander-post-another-ar | 427.3830945400473 | Will @ScottAlexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2026? | 1767340740000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62248949983756 | False | basic | public | 1712533814418 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Cowpox of Doubt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/15/the-cowpox-of-doubt/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9180593466736804, "platformFee": 2.9180593466736804, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1715875570142 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1646352460573 | 0 | [{"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1712533814564}, {"name": "Blogs", "slug": "blogs", "groupId": "924bd6a5-2849-4b46-9cea-28e21b9fe77f", "createdTime": 1712533814583}] | ["scott-alexander", "blogs"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715875563651 | 1712554966348 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4876089949518131 | XYsDoG6vgawZ9juz0PfO | {"NO": 106.20689655172414, "YES": 136.00000000000003} | 0.4263301500682131 | will-texas-take-the-title-for-state | 16 | Will Texas take the title for state with largest cowboy hat from Washington? | 1861937940000 | 3YR49JAndvZGxM1zz1nARN00sX32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712533904940 | Benjamin Idelevich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only if Texas does so, any other state and the question still resolves no. Texas does not need to have the largest by the end of the time period, just at some point gotten the title.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | BenjaminIdelevich | 1712637034718 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK7FYRVb1QM7Z6j3VlehM8inNICpkH9YwhQG9JgnxNfuN0YFaYZ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712368175788 | 0 | [{"name": "World records", "slug": "world-records", "groupId": "21ca0aab-a0ee-4952-b403-43ced38b62c2", "createdTime": 1712533905067}, {"name": "Texas", "slug": "texas", "groupId": "A4Z3W67n93LMKcZEILwf", "createdTime": 1712533905069}, {"name": "Dallas Cowboys", "slug": "dallas-cowboys", "groupId": "29496985-10b9-4379-9... | ["world-records", "texas", "dallas-cowboys", "washington"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712637028219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4716981132075473 | GzPzH0u0f33jBNiDNhi8 | {"NO": 90.93297410839803, "YES": 160.97698372107757} | 0.3352649568001627 | blogpost-titled-the-disease-of-emot | 41 | Blogpost titled "The [disease] of [emotion]" by @ScottAlexander before 2026 because of a manifold market? | 1767340740000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712534178155 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Cowpox of Doubt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/15/the-cowpox-of-doubt/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underli... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002572881037675001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.023016278922442037, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | Bayesian | 1719073608137 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC", "createdTime": 1712534178301}, {"name": "Blogs", "slug": "blogs", "groupId": "924bd6a5-2849-4b46-9cea-28e21b9fe77f", "createdTime": 1712534178298}] | ["scott-alexander", "blogs"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719073605022 | 1712537068879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7K7w4ln3pUPSUUVpQTOe | will-destiny-be-live-anywhere-6174a505a01a | 7334.339702136216 | Will Destiny be live anywhere? | 1713164340000 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712536094463 | A Whole Turkey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will destiny ( not a clip ) be visible or audible in any live stream from any channel. Twitter space, discord, a youtube broadcast, as long as he is live and recorded for review, it will be resolved YES. If he is not live in any format will resolve... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713546575177 | 395 | AWholeTurkey | 1713164340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXoYMkpGKhUTA_Na4PwM_SDlp0_3ib2nfGQhaw7x5B70s=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b0172374a99b", "prob": 1, "text": "Mon 4/8", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5256, "userId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.22111683459752385, "textFts": "'4/8':2 'mon':1", "contractId": "7K7w4ln3pUPSUUVpQTOe", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "createdTim... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699290420656 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712536094643}, {"name": "Destiny", "slug": "destiny", "groupId": "d5076dce-8f87-4eaa-9735-77def68f9e0e", "createdTime": 1712536094653}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "create... | ["destinygg", "destiny", "dalibanhq"] | 0.25 | 1712949742859 | 0.5 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48536873357949495 | zUyBUd70lpbRKX6POBQJ | {"NO": 136.20689655172407, "YES": 143.7295923095808} | 0.4719543547734668 | will-4chan-reference-repligatejanus | 26 | Will 4chan reference @repligate/janus by EOY 2025 | 1767243540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712536196446 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | StochasticParrot | 1712565760891 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712565757610 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KgV3m35WhZxZVgDSulYR | which-days-will-destiny-stream-this-797073fd6c89 | 13074.665819196047 | Which days will Destiny stream this week? | 1713156833585 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712536433096 | A Whole Turkey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only will resolve YES if destinyโs channel on Youtube or Kick go live on that day. This does not include bridges podcast. Will resolve NO if it does not go live by Midnight EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "con... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713156833585 | 835 | AWholeTurkey | 1713156833585 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJXoYMkpGKhUTA_Na4PwM_SDlp0_3ib2nfGQhaw7x5B70s=s96-c | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cf75b8dbf3cf", "prob": 1, "text": "Mon 4/8", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5913.746118546522, "userId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.45936584563150973, "textFts": "'4/8':2 'mon':1", "contractId": "KgV3m35WhZxZVgDSulYR", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2"... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699290420656 | 0 | [{"name": "Destiny", "slug": "destiny", "groupId": "d5076dce-8f87-4eaa-9735-77def68f9e0e", "createdTime": 1712536433313}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 1712536433321}, {"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "create... | ["destiny", "dalibanhq", "destinygg"] | 0.25 | 1713156807330 | 1713074005292 | 0.99 | iaPv4gvLtxeWhB428Oe6jyyPE1d2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18495150879100875 | 74OUQ9BP0ggwUffLYYX3 | {"NO": 903.337004796371, "YES": 1253.6316170854668} | 0.1405344418001107 | will-there-be-a-movie-theatre-on-th | 588.073550188894 | Will there be a movie theatre on the moon by 2050? ๐ฅ๐ฟ๐ | 2524636740000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.794207874602598 | False | basic | public | 1712539778978 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a building on the moon which functions primarily as a movie theatre, with routine screen times before 2050. Resolves NO on January 1st, 2050 otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.0031095350870438965} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5208803308724969, "platformFee": 0.2407796579411079, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mattyb | 1718917451159 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1712539779122}, {"name": "๐ญ Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1712539779134}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": ... | ["moon", "space-exploration", "space", "movies", "television-film", "cinema", "entertainment", "moonbases"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718917447962 | 1712598170947 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sJWkQ3ZQqUxYnwDePiep | will-solana-next-rise-above-200-or | 1148.4807130855704 | Will Solana next rise above $200 or fall below $150? | 1712971606997 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 6305b69b1458 | public | 1712539882669 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712971606997 | 200 | kurt | 1720053161621 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6c6b74ede518", "prob": 0.024728193927597453, "text": ">200 USD", "color": "#4caf50", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.668977086993777, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 815.1776337698768, "textFts": "'200':1 'usd':2", "contractId": "sJWkQ3ZQqUxYnwDePiep", "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1712539882979}, {"name": "๐
ฑ๏ธ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1712539882980}, {"name": "๐ช Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "created... | ["crypto-news", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 1712971551361 | {"6305b69b1458": 100} | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pud6T4le8apjGEpOhyto | live-what-will-happen-at-tonights-c-27287937dae5 | 4783.112634630494 | ๐ดLIVE: What will happen at tonight's Coolfold poker night [ADD RESPONSES] | 1712550536086 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712540105687 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712550536086 | 735 | strutheo | 1712550536086 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "dba72dd2a94e", "prob": 0.024572617777705016, "text": "anyone gets 4 of a kind all night", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.546036444266722, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 458.3280546565421, "textFts": "'4':3 'anyon':1 'get':2 'kind':6 'night':8", "contractId": "pud6T4le8apjGEpOh... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold TV", "slug": "manifold-tv", "groupId": "d6ab3e28-0306-4762-a47a-dd678785315f", "createdTime": 1712540105906}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712540105913}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hz... | ["manifold-tv", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "live-betting", "coolfold", "poker", "youtube", "livestreaming"] | 0.25 | 1712550522653 | 1712541102918 | 0.01 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5107295276590553 | CBSTONvCl7B5DAhWip6f | {"NO": 175.928477282849, "YES": 183.64457530932648} | 0.4999999999999999 | will-some-manifold-user-run-away-fr | 84.38552163629276 | Will a Manifold user run away from a poker debt in 2024? | 1735707540000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712540319269 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if someone defaults on a poker payment from one of the Manifold poker nights. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3067288409984327, "platformFee": 0.3067288409984327, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | AmmonLam | 1716291246776 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712540319420}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712540319418}, {"name": "๐ Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "gro... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifoldpoker"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716291243208 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Qrc22iaqWFD4WXmTXzID | which-party-will-control-a-majority | 793.9384444227369 | Which party will control a majority of U.S House delegations after the 2024 election? | 1732165140000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712540448701 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the electoral college is tied, this will decide the presidency. As of writing, Republicans control 26 and Democrats control 22, with 2 split. If neither party has 26, this will resolve to 'neither'.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5053446296044266, "platformFee": 1.5053446296044266, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 260 | SemioticRivalry | 1716146325262 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c34e9d48882c", "prob": 0.5099999999999999, "text": "Republican", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.24858992595713, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 83.82707659552747, "textFts": "'republican':1", "contractId": "Qrc22iaqWFD4WXmTXzID", "createdTime": 1712540448701, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | 0.25 | 1716146321796 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hUhF9XO6hGhzX9WmevP9 | manifold-big-pivot-conditional-on-a | 360.38898391628106 | Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true? | 1718089140000 | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1712541255106 | ClubmasterTransparent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add your own. Close date pushed out so that answer โThey show up at Manifest anywayโ can resolve.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Added clarification: they have to stay inactive on Manifold at... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0722641762200533, "platformFee": 0.9711911861392485, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ClubmasterTransparent | 1718117111347 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "97ccd759b321", "prob": 0.5, "text": "They will N/A all their open markets", "index": 0, "poolNo": 173.55289341549204, "userId": "UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 173.55289341549204, "textFts": "'market':7 'n/a':3 'open':6", "contractId": "hUhF9XO6hGhzX9WmevP9", "createdTime": 1712541... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696796918520 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅ๏ธ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712541255343}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712541255347}, {"name": "๐ค Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwW... | ["technology-default", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "fun", "manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 1717064661426 | 1717210572009 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.306260269475019 | 3B75Iyhm4M1YPAeISpwJ | {"NO": 58.24534637604799, "YES": 2486.671386124919} | 0 | will-destiny-stream-every-day-this | 3021.309726813296 | Will Destiny stream every day this week? | 1713157009087 | K0KCr92BGefCWfQQMfGNnzlekqj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.187821824312554 | True | play | NO | public | 1712542633093 | Bryce Bowe (md39) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all options in the linked market resolve YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/AWholeTurkey/which-days-will-destiny-stream-this-797073fd6c89?r=QnJ5Y2VCb3dlbWQzOQ", "type": "te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010234560868820925} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713157009087 | 320 | BryceBowemd39 | 1713157009087 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhbEJumjVRrU0h7b1J0GkylMGdjhSJJ97AgaoNKUho47w=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700283330093 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1712542633233}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713155369543 | 0.01 | K0KCr92BGefCWfQQMfGNnzlekqj2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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PQWl3mB9UbgQSqjjUR0W | what-consequences-will-trump-face-f | 851 | What consequences will Trump face for violating the judgeโs orders in the hush month trial? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712554132521 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.202076000820242, "platformFee": 3.202076000820242, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | BTE | 1715266219492 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "2f4f8ca5f2c5", "prob": 0.42416804496283905, "text": "Remanded temporarily", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.81288045455541, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 56.76333468258109, "textFts": "'remand':1 'temporarili':2", "contractId": "PQWl3mB9UbgQSqjjUR0W", "createdTime": 1712554132... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1712554132756}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1712554132753}] | ["trial-of-the-century", "trump-indictments"] | 0.25 | 1715266216246 | 1712555511613 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PUYic6YFexGbA7NB04zO | what-countries-will-joe-biden-visit | 319.1673887254818 | What countries will Joe Biden visit during the rest of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712554271881 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5639308239249168, "platformFee": 0.8008109102566904, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 305 | BTE | 1717103180389 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3d15878832ab", "prob": 0.12937764206131586, "text": "Indonesia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.32486353482058, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.12576897522067, "textFts": "'indonesia':1", "contractId": "PUYic6YFexGbA7NB04zO", "createdTime": 1712554271881, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ด๐ผ Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712554272254}, {"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712554272252}] | ["the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1717103176677 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KpBtVAPmX0Ibm6B7iO0D | what-states-will-biden-visit-during | 1289.4388896441988 | What states will Biden visit during the rest of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712554542629 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4711750172670772, "platformFee": 0.4711750172670772, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1225 | BTE | 1715219704799 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cff08f86feed", "prob": 0.948006538633565, "text": "Delaware", "index": 0, "poolNo": 164.24353207499811, "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.007943924033492, "textFts": "'delawar':1", "contractId": "KpBtVAPmX0Ibm6B7iO0D", "createdTime": 1712554542629, "probChanges": {"day": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "๐บ๐ธ 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1712554543020}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 1713883662363 | 1715219703321 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9498141355689698 | meeaupCZpKu4HgJIhsms | {"NO": 4605.136840163975, "YES": 345.92375389621606} | 1 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-037ca80ddcd8 | 8767.075444204927 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 8? | 1712633892279 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.534938792731358 | True | play | YES | public | 1712557184658 | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003953305027216691} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712633892279 | 480 | JCDM | 1712633892279 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703455433441 | 0 | [{"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1712557184808}, {"name": "Jimmy Carter Daily", "slug": "jimmy-carter-daily", "groupId": "19215cc1-e005-4008-80ba-e4df0c64d06f", "createdTime": 1712557184811}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "ent... | ["public-figures", "jimmy-carter-daily", "entertainment", "jimmy-carter", "death-markets", "longevity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712633315178 | 1 | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Vp5V5kMQRyuiwxpqkcGO | apr-14-2024-price-of-bitcoin-btc-at | 3972.305113521641 | APR 14, 2024: Price of Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of the week | 1713157140000 | hcLXZc5GhyRNSugpRU7imRZ62IH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 28579c3c5853 | public | 1712560119679 | Alex C | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Blockchain", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/assets/btc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decor... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713157665007 | 500 | Alex609 | 1713157140000 | 0 | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "9ed0b5622957", "prob": 0.00027405189691691794, "text": "45500-49000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3711857931200129, "userId": "hcLXZc5GhyRNSugpRU7imRZ62IH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1354.0649531128704, "textFts": "'-49000':2 '45500':1", "contractId": "Vp5V5kMQRyuiwxpqkcGO", "resolverId": "hcLXZc5GhyRNSugpRU7i... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703195536465 | 0 | [{"name": "๐
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xraF9mLaE2UJ19pHAgI2 | which-of-the-following-meme-coin-wi | 368 | Which of the following meme coin will perform best in Y2024? | 1735660740000 | SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712560231476 | Quadrifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "๐ Resolves with meme coin with the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "highest YTD percentage increase", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as of December 31st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.3814603862607826, "platformFee": 2.3682240088749125, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 440 | Quadrifold | 1717619609537 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8bb0d41bc037", "prob": 0.05618789829714646, "text": "๐ถ Dogecoin $DOGE", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.690789703942496, "userId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 263.5648895343636, "textFts": "'doge':2 'dogecoin':1", "contractId": "xraF9mLaE2UJ19pHAgI2", "createdTime": 1712560231476, "p... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692341243629 | 0 | [{"name": "Meme Stocks", "slug": "meme-stocks", "groupId": "524e08a3-3589-4267-9009-818d6c89cfa4", "createdTime": 1712560231684}, {"name": "Meme markets", "slug": "meme-markets", "groupId": "6PR9qZTGIgdWJRIUPF96", "createdTime": 1712560231687}, {"name": "๐ช Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExW... | ["meme-stocks", "meme-markets", "crypto-prices", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "fun", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "trends-fads"] | 0.25 | 1717619606093 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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P3PBmlLHBA0B7R5becPx | which-countries-will-william-lai-ch | 137.0130954612958 | Which countries will William Lai Ching-te visit as President of Taiwan (Republic of China)? | 1969631940000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712564684225 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES to all countries that Lai visits ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "as", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " President. He doesn't need to be on an official visit; the US will resolve YES when he makes a transit as lo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.25973392135163104, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 840 | JoshuaWilkes | 1716477401835 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "850620266691", "prob": 0.32989323512403007, "text": "Belize", "index": 0, "poolNo": 27.022644265887507, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.89065794453155, "textFts": "'beliz':1", "contractId": "P3PBmlLHBA0B7R5becPx", "createdTime": 1712564684225, "probChanges": {"day": 0,... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | [{"name": "Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1712564684451}, {"name": "๐ Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1712564684458}] | ["taiwan", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 1716477398274 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5336730186192133 | YM6qhhtK9N14sV6tRSTT | {"NO": 160.80956986954428, "YES": 122.68891714997359} | 0.6000000000000002 | will-borussia-dortmunds-womens-foot | 84.05086503239926 | Will Borussia Dortmund's womens football team complete their speedrun and make it to the 1. Bundesliga by 2027? | 1814479140000 | vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712564923673 | A. Dings | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Borussia Dortmund was relatively late among the major German football clubs to form a women's team. When they did, they decided to start from zero in the lowest leagues (instead of merging with / buying a local club in a higher league, as some othe... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | ADings | 1717058432289 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyQmiXuUz7vNTKFEGxzvoGhgYnrN03vcCFlsSwpc7SDg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709564544314 | 0 | [{"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712564923822}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712564923830}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1712564923... | ["soccer", "sports-default", "germany"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712658804906 | 1717058430911 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.17901023791924792 | srWfTbGd7e7yfyb1f3Ua | {"NO": 229.80542002892233, "YES": 55.839582118325325} | 0.47294702925364984 | will-the-learningtheoretic-agenda-s | 104.99999999999994 | Will "The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712567483358 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.22789401426392206, "month": 0.22789401426392222} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.755416747836676, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | LessWrong | 1719854828929 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 5 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1712567486675}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719854825398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5913336504304338 | AsU9bMnMjIsoHvbfrwvP | {"NO": 221.39570992156322, "YES": 65.00460408043729} | 1 | can-this-market-be-manipulated | 910 | can this market be manipulated | 1712570400000 | t4otKcGMLmMVDgLh31R8TE5zp9o1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8417435824944204 | True | play | YES | public | 1712567951262 | Lรจ Xb0t | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves to YES if this market is manipulated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm very new to manifold and prediction markets. I'm also not very good at math, econ or finance but manifold is ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1686851138456258} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712570434448 | 140 | Xb0t | 1712607459877 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711082399648 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712568945101 | 1712607459146 | 0.96 | t4otKcGMLmMVDgLh31R8TE5zp9o1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VBeHBzKqlvkeNvo59VfQ | who-will-win-owcs-stage-2-na | 0 | Who will win OWCS Stage 2 NA? | 1714341540000 | TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | b0dd315292f3 | public | 1712568131342 | zinfour | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Overwatch_Champions_Series/2024/North_America/Stage_2/Main_Event", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liquipedia.net/overwatch/Overwatch_Champions_Series/2024/North_America/Stage_2... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714354717943 | 420 | zinfour | 1714341540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfsX1pJBLnA8vF1MKKjIM9GSvTKOA5XqE1-SFEvMkid=s96-c | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b0dd315292f3", "prob": 0.2436453862981168, "text": "Toronto Defiant", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.75160497232943, "userId": "TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.98462309884322, "textFts": "'defiant':2 'toronto':1", "contractId": "VBeHBzKqlvkeNvo59VfQ", "resolverId": "TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRW... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1689504252864 | 0 | [{"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1712568131616}, {"name": "Overwatch 2", "slug": "overwatch-2", "groupId": "93129ade-7951-44d1-9636-4a8675bf6358", "createdTime": 1712568131620}, {"name": "๐ฎ Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTi... | ["esports", "overwatch-2", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1712576514843 | {"b0dd315292f3": 100} | TU2PWWSEtIddVH0uRWmleQ5HvMt2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8683004297757125 | XMszOCV5uvzN27x9C7SN | {"NO": 7479.926660077874, "YES": 498.13585576485457} | 1 | -will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68 | 27508.871286953847 | ๐ฑ Will Apple have a product release event in May 2024? | 1715094140574 | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | YES | public | 1712572050951 | Enrico Susatyo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:d... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.59736729029275, "platformFee": 26.59736729029275, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715094140574 | 1035 | esusatyo | 1715094140574 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680581898997 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1712572051103}, {"name": "๐ฑ iPad", "slug": "-ipad", "groupId": "5074a188-81b6-4084-8a4f-c319578a02f3", "createdTime": 1712572051099}, {"name": "๐ป Mac", "slug": "-mac", "groupId": "83a8e73c-256a-422b-9a23-8383d2c25b40", "createdTi... | ["apple", "-ipad", "-mac", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715086996823 | 1713911221056 | 0.99 | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2021999938884336 | OSwAgftFDIdpz1TORaVg | {"NO": 85.39482623072445, "YES": 2142.6629327634128} | 0 | will-crystal-palace-be-relegated-fr | 2147.910833367928 | Will Crystal Palace be relegated from Premier League 2023/24 | 1714391257166 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712573361907 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0194541039660788} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.303866565365377, "platformFee": 1.303866565365377, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714391257166 | 200 | tpking | 1714391257166 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | [{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1712573362054}, {"name": "๐๏ธ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712573362048}, {"name": "โฝ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTi... | ["premiere-league", "sports-default", "soccer", "football", "england"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714391231537 | 0.01 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95wec2FCCJWzQRTbWOCC | who-will-live-longer | 168.5370390316358 | Who will live longer? | 3501464340000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712573385720 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3720076420436975, "platformFee": 0.703777438893228, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | JamesF | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d5096992210b", "prob": 0.23738047362033046, "text": "Barack Obama", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 71.39092220495746, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 229.35378992810988, "textFts": "'barack':1 'obama':2", "contractId": "95wec2FCCJWzQRTbWOCC", "createdTime": 171... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Life & Death", "slug": "life-death", "groupId": "2de76c6e-155b-4bd1-b477-1b2a3dec0634", "createdTime": 1712573385897}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1712573385902}, {"name": "๐ชฆ Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsX... | ["life-death", "longevity", "death-markets", "life-extension", "barack-obama"] | 0.25 | 1716809291883 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ukcPNE3qFhBbROT64pk3 | asian-stock-nifty-3-how-will-each-o-7f23bc7fbbe7 | 15234.26761342381 | Asian Stock (Nifty + 3): How Will Each Of The Indian Indices Close On April 9 Compared To Its Close On April 8? | 1712661554307 | kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712573907829 | Grey Box | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 5.50 am - 4.30 pm IST (different time fo... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712661554307 | 440 | GreyBox | 1712661554307 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ed4672519784", "prob": 0.00023951139238012094, "text": "Nifty - NIFTY_50: Higher", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.020361565433256, "userId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4259.159312117364, "textFts": "'50':3 'higher':4 'nifti':1,2", "contractId": "ukcPNE3qFhBbROT64pk3", "resolution": "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692725309128 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712573908118}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1712573908121}, {"name": "Stock Market-Daily", "slug": "stock-marketdaily", "groupId": "fb5495b0-7695-4ff4-92f1-4357551d8536", "cr... | ["stocks", "asia", "stock-marketdaily", "india", "nifty"] | 0.25 | 1712661510725 | 1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QwkZlQxlqgypOTBhuzJ3 | how-old-will-the-first-person-to-st | 221.01787901634393 | How old will the first person to step on Mars be | 3501550740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712575056728 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves min or max if the first person is older or younger than the min or max", "type": "text"}]}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5471894856179692, "platformFee": 0.444264162639841, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 240 | JamesF | 1718410385963 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "5e8ebd90aa82", "prob": 0.002380775076381279, "text": "16-17", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.46144632715766204, "userId": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 193.36044459210103, "textFts": "'-17':2 '16':1", "contractId": "QwkZlQxlqgypOTBhuzJ3", "createdTime": 1712575056728, "probChanges": {"d... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-42e3-be94-45b38d7b54c2", "createdTime": 1712575057037}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1712575057039}, {"name": "๐ Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaL... | ["space-colonization", "mars", "space"] | 0.25 | 1718410382083 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6908330213199011 | 6w3UkA3iG23A3OgSm3yQ | {"NO": 1475.9568895704706, "YES": 49.51967062791495} | 1 | this-market-has-a-99-chance-of-reso | 8365.21009970052 | This market has a 99% chance of resolving Yes. | 1715230740000 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1712575606368 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After this market closes on May 8th, I will call \"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " 100\". If it generates 1, this market will resolve NO. If it generates ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.468225674276031, "platformFee": 9.468225674276031, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715434570177 | 160 | pie | 1715230740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1712575606497}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1712575606498}, {"name": "๐ฒ Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1715224560921 | 1715434564145 | 0.99 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9UaMhP8D9w6ambHa39WL | is-chatgptdalle-generating-an-image | 1012.9931443465717 | Is ChatGPT/DallE generating an image of a conservative or liberal politician? Round 1: white woman | 1713844740000 | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 3ad8ee3abb69 | public | 1712576071425 | VerySeriousPoster | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I asked ChatGPT to generate an image of either of a conservative or liberal white, female politician giving a speech. I decided between the two via a coin flip. The correct answer will resolve Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0943874915484886, "platformFee": 1.0943874915484886, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714085363147 | 820 | VerySeriousPoster | 1720053161621 | 0 | 36 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3ad8ee3abb69", "prob": 0.7837613228857276, "text": "Conservative", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 752.9688582179498, "userId": "wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 207.74307822412533, "textFts": "'conserv':1", "contractId": "9UaMhP8D9w6ambHa39WL", "resolverId": "wUb31hi72zgol... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681990719923 | 0 | [{"name": "DALLE3", "slug": "dalle3", "groupId": "2eecc88f-7aec-43e1-b9c4-d9349b466734", "createdTime": 1712576071613}, {"name": "๐ค AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1712576071619}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1712576071659... | ["dalle3", "ai", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 1713804355850 | 1714085561262 | {"3ad8ee3abb69": 100} | wUb31hi72zgolOqxm88HDZAP9zy1 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2330209203309083 | uXmhdIJxtgmjbo6zCGoT | {"NO": 428.7386678434838, "YES": 12894.903607986993} | 0 | will-israel-capture-or-kill-yahya-s-b728958b43b7 | 14375.291243494923 | Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, by June 30, 2024? | 1719892740000 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | NO | public | 1712576549773 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.061088337378128334, "month": -0.14022523881867818} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.99539606800751, "platformFee": 8.190840356087419, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719921243946 | 1000 | Bruce54df | 1719892740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 22 | 5 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1712576549999}, {"name": "๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1712576550001}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabis... | ["israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719815927153 | 1719838633953 | 0.01 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8962548342475097 | sDlkOqeQe6EPS8Jep0Lj | {"NO": 7331.032464020577, "YES": 82.35512105909757} | 1 | will-uconn-beat-purdue-by-more-than | 9428.510954164234 | Will UCONN beat Purdue by more than 7 points tonight in championship game? | 1712657197294 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.962451755977066 | True | play | YES | public | 1712576631035 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0012988633768786784} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712657197294 | 247.5 | Bruce54df | 1712657197294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "NCAAF", "slug": "ncaaf", "groupId": "bef1011e-0797-4b5d-a0ca-0192a3d1122a", "createdTime": 1712576631171}, {"name": "๐ Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1712576631188}, {"name": "โน๏ธ March Madness", "slug": "march-madness", "groupId": "Tp4TDTWUGnEUMvBcCPIR",... | ["ncaaf", "basketball", "march-madness"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712657094940 | 1712627818509 | 1 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eEyAxdhD061Cw3sD7hVa | how-will-these-us-stocks-perform-fo | 9472.616474084185 | How will these U.S. Stocks perform for the week of April 8-12? | 1712965614453 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712577614610 | ReeMARKable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market hours are Monday to Friday, 9:30 AM-4:00 PM (EDT). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712965614453 | 1365 | ReeMARKable | 1712965614453 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "0c4808c378a7", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Netflix Inc. (NFLX) close higher than 636.18?", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.9016336863691095, "userId": "dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 782.2617349505435, "textFts": "'636.18':7 'close':4 'higher':5 'inc':2 'netflix':1 'nflx':3", "contractId": "eEy... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697544913258 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712577614853}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1712577614862}, {"name": "NASDAQ", "slug": "nasdaq", "groupId": "d3aaa6d9-84fa-42e5-9053-690f91a... | ["stocks", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "nasdaq", "tech-stocks", "stock-marketweekly", "finance", "economics-default"] | 0.25 | 1712965603422 | 0.01 | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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nJRN9SUu0Ta9PprK9cDW | should-dependent-markets-autoresolv | 70 | Should dependent markets auto-resolve based on the market they depend on? | 1713218340000 | V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712585063873 | Jono | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dependend questions are questions that depend on the answer of other questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "are x and y true? (x and y are depe... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713247904839 | 140 | Jono3h | 1713327120690 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "304b25991f2b", "prob": 0.83, "text": "yes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 93.33333333333336, "userId": "V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.28374655647383, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "nJRN9SUu0Ta9PprK9cDW", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53", "creat... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1691850127277 | 0 | [{"name": "Feature Requests", "slug": "feature-requests", "groupId": "429b0a3b-fa6b-4fb9-9ffb-7e534ef76381", "createdTime": 1712585064147}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1712585064161}] | ["feature-requests", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 1713214894055 | 1713327120074 | 0.28 | V1YeIh32ozXzkndrxK0uHSPNlc53 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i9bat6MPCbcLMezjCaI7 | what-will-be-true-of-the-top-ten-al | 202 | What will be true of the top ten albums of 2024 on rateyourmusic.com at the end of January 2025? | 1738385940000 | OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712585124620 | FinalDestination | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First ten entries here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://rateyourmusic.com/charts/top/album/2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://rateyourmusic.com/charts/top/album/2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3150556617652687, "platformFee": 1.3150556617652687, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 570 | FinalDestination | 1713883995440 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbcwJryU_7ebr4G2XN7Qn9ZdwxgpkJQeidLCiE90ak=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "f6b04c3b41b3", "prob": 0.34, "text": "All albums have 5K+ ratings.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.37573948672578, "userId": "OlOQ4o8W0bcbY2CJiw3IS9QcRZ53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.71528644847903, "textFts": "'5k':4 'album':2 'rate':5", "contractId": "i9bat6MPCbcLMezjCaI7", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolver... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1705517282671 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1712585124874}, {"name": "๐ท Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1712585124877}, {"name": "RateYourMusic", "slug": "rateyourmusic", "groupId": "b98be700-9331-4bf5-a20c-2a20b... | ["internet", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "rateyourmusic", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1713725014650 | 1713883994950 | False | alphabetical | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12453222447129834 | CXKTy8ZCHHPTELssWFmn | {"NO": 869.4987341469267, "YES": 1485.6428770661346} | 0.07685400423605071 | if-the-filibuster-is-abolished-will | 1013.1367901270737 | If the filibuster is abolished will it go to the Supreme Court within 5 years | 2556161940000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.11386926713223 | False | basic | public | 1712585957084 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By making it to the Supreme Court I mean a case made against the filibuster reaches the Supreme Court. Within 5 years of the abolishment of the filibuster", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 0.007423116267087013, "month": 0.008781095094145264} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0269367797385431, "platformFee": 0.1147205730069869, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesF | 1719705707490 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 12 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "createdTime": 1712585957229}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712585957230}, {"name": "US Senate", "slug": "us-senate", "groupId": "Scdb6UrBLNsi1zvLGSD5", "crea... | ["supreme-court", "politics-default", "us-senate", "us-politics", "filibuster"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719705704296 | 1712588288944 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14038306439764558 | i6rwahHsrwmgE4NZRXp3 | {"NO": 288.68099893642284, "YES": 4652.8892725365895} | 0 | will-donald-trump-announce-his-vp-p | 6816.149237126166 | Will Donald Trump announce his VP pick by the end of April? | 1714529139933 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712587012659 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Donald Trump announce his selection for vice president by the end of April?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES: Donald Trump selects a running mate during the month of April", "type": "t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8156155488676498, "platformFee": 2.8156155488676498, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714529139933 | 480 | StefanXJ7 | 1714529139933 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | [{"name": "๐ฅTrump VP", "slug": "trump-vp", "groupId": "91cb9237-771a-4e21-8eb2-d05f3f6d9e5b", "createdTime": 1712587012807}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712587012809}, {"name": "๐ด Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01... | ["trump-vp", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "magaland", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714529058145 | 0.01 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31830469199264855 | UAeyo66UulJIbxOYmSTz | {"NO": 879.4495922645226, "YES": 1181.4840403825315} | 0.25792067639822996 | will-stan-lee-appear-in-deadpool-an | 1737.17270556169 | Will Stan Lee appear in Deadpool and Wolverine? | 1722063540000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.642050429951327 | False | basic | public | 1712587979378 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stan Lee created Marvel Comics with Jack Kirby (donโt @ me, I know this is controversial) and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "appeared in nearly every Marvel movie", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0023507566173227024, "month": -0.0023507566173227024} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.133075594124904, "platformFee": 19.75589229564291, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mattyb | 1719821300261 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "Comics", "slug": "comics", "groupId": "87dt17yTtLFkGY63jFdp", "createdTime": 1712587979537}, {"name": "๐ฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1712587979543}, {"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "grou... | ["comics", "entertainment", "marvel-cinematic-universe", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "superheroes", "marvel", "deadpool", "celebrities"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719821297192 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.175793100630834 | s7ayD52uK3livA64uFSU | {"NO": 1026.922540299454, "YES": 713.4084905727276} | 0.2349000738720247 | will-nonmuslims-be-required-to-pay | 2651.243048093118 | Will non-Muslims be required to pay jizya in any EU country by the end of 2050? | 2556140340000 | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.630040543463739 | False | basic | public | 1712588543879 | lukres | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any legal payment obligation that applies specifically to non-Muslims counts, can be local.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any country that has ever been a member of the EU (so the UK as well... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0053295557491679635, "month": -0.0003209927504805865} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.214004685953014, "platformFee": 0.8184262083050984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lukres | 1720012716808 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 21 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690889308481 | 0 | [{"name": "Law", "slug": "law", "groupId": "721015fa-be97-4989-b9e9-9a5cd25709d6", "createdTime": 1712588544051}, {"name": "๐ณ๏ธ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712588544059}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": ... | ["law", "politics-default", "europe"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720012713479 | 1720011725802 |
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