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cpmm-1
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play
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1668753644611
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is-integer-factorization-in-p
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Is Integer Factorization in P?
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uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
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basic
public
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Bolton Bailey
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Is Integer Factorization NP-Complete?
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cpmm-1
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Will I top 8 the Pioneer Showcase Challenge on 11/20/22 on MTGO?
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Will I top 8 the Modern Showcase Challenge on 11/19/22 on MTGO?
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475.3720413886064
Is Graph Isomorphism in P?
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cpmm-1
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Bolton Bailey
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cpmm-1
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Is Graph Isomorphism NP-Complete?
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uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
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Bolton Bailey
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cpmm-1
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Will Mono Green Devotion in Pioneer get a ban by the time the next Standard set is released?
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U1Y9gglxaggn4UyJ8vrU
{"NO": 128.24607440916145, "YES": 247.90278254274824}
0
will-a-single-manifold-market-beat
113.40416854124862
Will a single manifold market beat the FiveThirtyEight World Cup Predictions for which teams make it to the round of 16?
1670013900000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
0
1.9742770955752145
True
play
NO
public
1668784510297
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the Brier score for the predictions of the manifold market below is lower (lower is better) than that for the FiveThirtyEight 2022 World Cup Predictions: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...
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egroj
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8
0
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https://firebasestorage.…abe-cd7aaafb1145
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[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1668784549873}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 16...
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1670001063935
1670015614694
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will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-b71e74f6a8e4
359146.3345375435
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
1704088740000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0.2807588689090136
0.29854836306186705
True
basic
NO
public
1668784662382
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "including tests", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1704089823989
3490
Gigacasting
1704089833881
8.3
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
19
1568
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https://firebasestorage.…d5b-291bd02d07ca
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[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1668784662690}, {"name": "Nathan's Dashboard", "slug": "nathans-dashboard", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "g4G6yDkp0vg1tQ6CLAoo", "createdTime": 1670505267...
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1703778037664
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0.14283938186937087
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0.12000000000000002
will-trump-be-suspended-for-twitter
588.9495141761196
Will @realDonaldTrump be suspended from Twitter?
1864619940000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
9.92359570679598
False
basic
public
1668784940335
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For at least 24 hours, beginning after his account is live and tweeting again.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
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{"day": 9.71445146547012e-17, "week": 9.71445146547012e-17, "month": 9.71445146547012e-17}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1701273010079
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
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0
https://firebasestorage.…df8-7267389f3b73
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1668911488879}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181893158}]
["twitter", "donald-trump"]
0.5
1701273009945
False
0.49999999999999994
O5gfnb0E3t5Q4PVbBhg7
{"NO": 30.834914611005676, "YES": 81.0769230769231}
0.2755286236742017
will-trump-be-banned-from-twitter
35
Will @realDonaldTrump be banned from Twitter?
1669001060897
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
4.497624508364958
True
play
CANCEL
public
1668784990996
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For at least one month, beginning after his account is live again. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669001060897
50
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1668905880635
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…d97-05c7cca49194
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1668911800469}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181893098}]
["twitter", "donald-trump"]
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1668905880521
1668790245917
False
0.2755286236742017
0.6132472386310197
kW7qYoFcyV016RcDhsEr
{"NO": 949.7823819285021, "YES": 1004.0030413855003}
0.6000000000000004
will-realdonaldtrump-have-a-tweet-d
1409.850634158635
Will @realDonaldTrump have a tweet deleted?
1864619940000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
9.677873364437662
False
basic
public
1668785127466
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For at least one hour, after account has been live for at least one week ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1686101149375
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
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0
https://firebasestorage.…aa0-dd94036ee233
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1668911776494}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181893068}]
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0.5
1686101149126
1668793116241
False
0.7072937520727013
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will-200-or-more-people-show-up-for
1855.3962408241525
Will 200 or more People show up for Destiny's canvassing project for the Georgia runoff election?
1670419781013
0DydWX8lTfWYizav0j6vRtM4zHy2
cpmm-1
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1.397205801276584
True
play
YES
public
1668785585624
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BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1670419781013
430
Ravaen
1670314499611
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Sqrn-O0c9W9Dp8dtXfhuctNGZhRB4SQ5BBPPPuQ=s96-c
21
0
https://firebasestorage.…178-c27464f458a8
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[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "0DydWX8lTfWYizav0j6vRtM4zHy2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1668785586012}, {"name": "2022 Georgia Runoffs", "slug": "2022-georgia-runoffs", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "TdE6khkHIRpYbjH6kYp7", "createdTime": 1670370504...
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0.5
1670314499454
1670250032127
0.9548901746907624
Go3bpY8hgOWOv9LN3ujP
what-countries-will-make-it-to-2022
18543.629075625075
What countries will make it to 2022 FIFA World Cup Final?
1670958000000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.619973071621947
True
basic
MKT
public
1668786396111
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Final", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Final", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 h...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671110098102
5619.999999999997
egroj
1671082485774
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
1
88
0
ANYONE
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1
https://firebasestorage.…689-3b26a1001823
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1670957672899
1671082461480
False
{"dad4d7c9b4af": 50, "e840d3e74875": 50}
True
0.1474487210430869
kwypw65n2kbTJW3Xg0ib
{"NO": 82.24331528369702, "YES": 761.6666666666664}
0
will-the-game-endless-dungeon-be-re
630
Will the game Endless Dungeon be released before April 1st, 2023?
1680303660000
KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2
cpmm-1
0
5.540879512730256
True
play
NO
public
1668786488603
nic
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Endless Dungeon is released on any platform before April 1st, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}...
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680465279968
150
nic_kup
1680301084999
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c
7
0
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https://firebasestorage.…889-714218b0acd3
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[{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "userId": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1668786488828}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1668788469833}]
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0.5
1680301084914
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destiny-vs-fuentes-will-destiny-win
1763.115404551028
Destiny VS Fuentes: Will Destiny Win Over Sneako's Soul? #DGG
1670325787431
TUiUbVrEaqYK7LDTGljhDIFVd2o2
cpmm-1
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0.7295998188432972
True
play
NO
public
1668786499570
Aleflamed
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The battle is not over", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "yet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sneako vs Fuentes", "type": "text", "m...
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1670325787431
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Aleflamed
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https://firebasestorage.…9af-82cf52da8327
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will-either-eto-hit-200-members-wit
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Will either ETO hit 200 members within 1 month?
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cpmm-1
0
2.1143919488681098
True
play
YES
public
1668786515517
Warren TV
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet concludes on 12/18/2022 if either eto (on its own, not both combined) hits 200 members within a month", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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WarrenTV
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https://firebasestorage.…d46-06bf46c087b0
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[{"name": "ETO", "slug": "eto", "userId": "R1ykBnYQMVcrVbVIVLMOTwFdWgq2", "groupId": "IiNevwTtyukII0eSmPIB", "createdTime": 1668786515734}]
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conditional-on-the-rational-animati-7f205343d20b
177800.65846620663
Will any Rational Animations video released in 2023 or late 2022 have over 2 million views by the end of 2024?
1735707600000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
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7.702065315794224
False
basic
public
1668787500398
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 act...
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https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
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https://firebasestorage.…440-cc7fafe1eae8
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1720080324571
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will-patrick-mckenzie-tweet-during
535.441838627866
Will Patrick McKenzie Tweet, during the week of 11/25/22, that "The number of systematically important institutions which have failed is believed to be lower than is true, and the degree to which they have failed is underestimated."?
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cpmm-1
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2.3034438276742883
True
play
YES
public
1668788222519
Zvi Mowshowitz
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1669217615697
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ZviMowshowitz
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if-manifold-airdrops-blue-checks-wh
6253.335970614465
If Manifold airdrops blue checks, which users will get them?
1669449540000
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cpmm-multi-1
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4.623901493471838
True
play
MKT
public
1668788537585
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The new Core Team badge looks nice and shiny, I kinda wanna do the same for users who are known to be \"trustworthy market creators\" or \"verified\". Who do y'all think deserve one?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph",...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1671498350627
2780.0000000000027
Austin
1671499542655
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
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if-manifold-starts-giving-out-blue
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If Manifold starts giving out blue checks to its users, will one of them resolve a market incorrectly before the end of 2023?
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cpmm-1
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2.644238558954815
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play
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1668788882717
Isaac King
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