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0.5000000000000003 | mx9u0ym53l | {"NO": 188.21228344571972, "YES": 5313.149501681681} | 0.03421194438703168 | will-an-assassination-attempt-be-ma-r0z9pemvc6 | 7099.876365965659 | Will an assassination attempt be made on Jill Biden in 2024? | 1735707540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899837767488327 | False | basic | public | 1719882411086 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0026546066488438574, "week": -0.4657880556129683, "month": -0.4657880556129683} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.766142088854444, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 226.0361668916125 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1720198509771 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720198506348 | 1719893934118 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 832v4e2lna | {"NO": 67.28078860872532, "YES": 148.63083811569874} | 0.31161262424555886 | will-nick-jonas-and-priyanka-chopra | 50 | Will Nick Jonas and Priyanka Chopra divorce in the next five years? | 1735707540000 | G8u0SvKGiqey6fHNCpHGbvRl78J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719882693408 | FB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone knows Nick Jonas and Priyanka Chopra could be in a fake relationship. There are many blind items that he is gay. There are many blind items that she is bisexual or lesbian, and that it's a beard relationship. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.18838737575444114, "month": -0.18838737575444114} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3691618843012585, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | huge_uranium | 1719882725721 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhuge_uranium%2FvyJMoQzQq1._V1_?alt=media&token=e2ef2a29-75c7-4469-aeed-2db65edf2cda | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690493739295 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719882722572 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ymj3xd6fg6 | which-months-in-2024-will-the-gaza | 279.21058071742215 | Which months in 2024 will the Gaza Aid JLOTS Pier be operational for more than five days? | 1735801140000 | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719883242119 | Craig Talbert | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The U.S. military-built pier for delivering aid to Gaza has been removed due to adverse weather conditions, with officials considering not reinstalling it unless aid distribution to the population resumes. Despite successfully delivering over 19.4 ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.1247722411232175, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CraigTalbert | 1719925980958 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | 3 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "wtn2zlv31o", "prob": 0.09588586718549727, "text": "July", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.427682321319146, "userId": "ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.1779727208254, "textFts": "'juli':1", "contractId": "ymj3xd6fg6", "createdTime": 1719883242120, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2799999999999981... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668421942235 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719925977819 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | slf8viq4dt | {"NO": 91.17687042103996, "YES": 109.67693839261675} | 0.4539464347705242 | will-the-number-of-manifold-league | 10 | Will the number of Manifold league types have changed at any point in time before 2025? | 1735772340000 | BMuuEZoTuDVeGWWv3Bfr434kobF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719883452803 | Calibrated Neutral | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the moment there are seven.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any change must have been intended by the developers. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the league system was altered... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.04605356522947579, "month": -0.04605356522947579} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.3230616073832487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CalibratedNeutral | 1719883950318 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680548461105 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719883947176 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0fh4mivr6o | which-party-will-the-economist-endo-h8rounj836 | 3380.1705483497667 | Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)? | 1719898092750 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1719883699905 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_editorial_stance#British_general_elections", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.997640308088354, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719898092750 | 1000 | gregrosent | 1719898212523 | 0 | 10 | 10 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ecemo50h5h", "prob": 0.11073450597828316, "text": "Conservative", "index": 0, "poolNo": 101.86738150933246, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 818.0570865630705, "textFts": "'conserv':1", "contractId": "0fh4mivr6o", "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "createdTime"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719897452847 | 1719898210623 | qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | rxrrm9xw5b | {"NO": 732.9803291305758, "YES": 1364.2930925392625} | 0.3494920221451053 | will-the-us-mens-soccer-team-fire-t | 375 | Will the US Men's Soccer team fire their coach in the next week? | 1720508340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.585377802375511 | False | basic | public | 1719889386235 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US Men's Soccer team got bounced in the group stage of the Copa America. Resolves YES if coach Gregg Berhalter is fired in the next week. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.15050797785489473, "month": -0.15050797785489473} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.706907460737662, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720025281721 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025278244 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999895 | 35bc29b5ot | {"NO": 9949.874371066204, "YES": 100.50378152592202} | 1 | will-the-nikkei-225-close-on-july-2 | 9679.186064978483 | Will the Nikkei 225 close on July 2nd higher than its previous day close? | 1719905618938 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923027 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719889443860 | RiskOptimization | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 71.06937882863754, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719905618938 | 1000 | RiskOptimization | 1719905618938 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705974765884 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719905595030 | 1719904097891 | 0.99 | PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jkenyehucu | how-many-medals-will-simone-biles-w | 974.7009465395421 | How many medals will Simone Biles win at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1723013940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719890366494 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Simone Biles is widely considered to be the greatest gymnast of all time—she has 23 gold medals at the World Championships, 14 more than the nearest competitor. Despite, that, at the most recent Olympics in Tokyo, Simone only won two medals—many fe... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.028577854376543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719963557152 | 0 | 8 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "iiuzng5dux", "prob": 0.17972523162281634, "text": "2 or fewer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 135.1245393847794, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 616.7150223989606, "textFts": "'2':1 'fewer':3", "contractId": "jkenyehucu", "createdTime": 1719890366494, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719963554061 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iu3d0ked0i | how-many-gold-medals-will-the-us-wo | 635.449101654983 | How many GOLD 🥇 medals will the US women's artistic gymnastics team win at the 2024 Olympics? | 1723013940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719890812903 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2020 Olympics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics#Artistic_gymnastics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.611211140931974, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719955542889 | 0 | 4 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4dkeo3zvvy", "prob": 0.09953395512227645, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.34246594300758, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 672.5631086589323, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "iu3d0ked0i", "createdTime": 1719890812903, "probChanges": {"day": -0.06230418716273245, "w... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719955539778 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | y1033nuupa | {"NO": 81.86692305842284, "YES": 122.14945458330824} | 0.40127623088273645 | will-i-start-manifold-season-16-at | 85 | Will I start Manifold Season 16 at Diamond League? | 1722581940000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719890884355 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.09872376911726355, "month": -0.09872376911726355} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7741112675002944, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | stardust2 | 1719930156344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719930152221 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | nhy8hab3nc | {"NO": 87.31605784505513, "YES": 114.52647138222031} | 0.4325949450759058 | will-i-bike-at-least-50-miles-in-on | 15 | Will I bike at least 50 miles in one day prior to August 1, 2024? | 1722581940000 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719891744442 | Aryeh Zax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previously on bikefold: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/azax/will-i-bike-at-least-60-miles-in-on-fa1b9a1864c0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/azax/will-i-bike-at-least-... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.06740505492409421, "month": -0.06740505492409421} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.47352861777969474, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | azax | 1719904988342 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663132225081 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719904985268 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vbxhco6vsp | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-99-w | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 99 - World Congress) | 1720130340000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1000000 | False | play | public | 1719891838599 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | komplexkonjugat | 1719891962591 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719891961368 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | 6skv683fgj | {"NO": 368.2031983971939, "YES": 2715.8916716450353} | 0.11938776656119958 | biden-officially-nominated-in-july | 25733.03523786135 | Biden formally nominated in July? | 1722427140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.70386373819349 | False | basic | public | 1719894089071 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Joe Biden is formally nominated by the Democratic National Committee as the Democratic presidential candidate by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": -0.002363437709897831, "week": -0.3806122334388004, "month": -0.3806122334388004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 596.7965053174813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 314.22140573717974 | 1000 | jim | 1720220657098 | 0 | 134 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720220653955 | 1719976758080 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | g7pj3ye838 | {"NO": 587.2596772280364, "YES": 1702.8242169122966} | 0.25643587937134776 | will-saudi-arabia-adopt-the-chinese | 942 | Will Saudi Arabia adopt the Chinese Yuan for trading oil by 2030? | 1893477540000 | hXoxhZ7koFY3AfvsfcBlCr081jC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614869998762893 | False | basic | public | 1719894797862 | Simran 🤍 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Opinion piece from Bloomberg here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Petrodollar Is Dead, Long Live the Petrodollar ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.24356412062865224, "month": -0.24356412062865224} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.411658216804863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimranRahman | 1719944893487 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692236590304 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719944890200 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9ym64ufikx | {"NO": 49.363954499667116, "YES": 202.57696331981327} | 0.19593464581659245 | will-the-class-action-lawsuit-again-hhix5fmpmy | 161.8623912179915 | Will the GameStop class action lawsuit against Keith Gill Deep Fucking Value Roaring Kitty survive a motion to dismiss? | 1722571140000 | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719895430511 | Benjamin Ikuta | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/roaring-kitty-securities-fraud-gamestop-gme-lawsuit-doomed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/roaring-kitty-securities-fraud-gamestop-gme-lawsuit-doomed", "c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3040653541834075, "month": -0.3040653541834075} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5849861323426904, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | benjaminIkuta | 1720005020374 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666832885921 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720005016906 | 1719895462595 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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87ficpradx | one-what-day-of-the-week-will-trump | 204.0759461670107 | Which day of the week will Trump announce his VP/Vice Presidential running mate? | 1735707540000 | WBpEQ4AZK9STiQowNBMKEI8uaC33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719933620122 | Apple_ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On what day of the week will Trump announce his Vice Presidential running mate. Resolves when he makes an official announcement. The Republican National Convention is July 15-18th. The day of the week will be defined by the day that event falls on ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7173842234049626, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Apple_ | 1719944700571 | 0 | 2 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "t9pczfpj9x", "prob": 0.5000000000000001, "text": "Monday", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.285714285714281, "userId": "WBpEQ4AZK9STiQowNBMKEI8uaC33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.285714285714274, "textFts": "'monday':1", "contractId": "87ficpradx", "createdTime": 1719933620122, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3807488822... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692064211746 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719944697495 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | nkihpxibhu | {"NO": 114.5260150371848, "YES": 87.31640576818427} | 0.5674030988144905 | will-the-mystery-of-the-capital-hil | 15 | Will the mystery of the Capital Hill Pipe Bomber from right before January 6th be "solved" before May 2025? | 1746169140000 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719940561773 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/500000-reward-remains-in-effect-for-information-about-capitol-hill-pipe-bomber", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offic... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | asmith | 1719941250978 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672111268287 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719941247806 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4swq4rgio4 | which-will-be-the-majority-pronunci | 6035.685199264843 | Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030? | 1924988340000 | jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719942404893 | Lawdog | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This bet will resolve at the end of 2030 based on the majority pronunciation as I determine. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 115.20608196154318, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lawdog | 1719997586261 | 0 | 17 | 17 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8kz5zf4lh1", "prob": 0.9225878944192628, "text": "Meme - rhymes with deem (most like gene) ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1150.7425741736001, "userId": "jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.5560096626345, "textFts": "'deem':4 'gene':7 'like':6 'meme':1 'rhyme':2", "contractId": "4swq4rgio4"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697063937316 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719997583183 | 1719982182542 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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09yu8wax0i | conditional-on-biden-not-being-the | 12388.217991797896 | Conditional on Biden NOT being the Democrat nominee, what will happen? [Add your own!] | 1731365940000 | 2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719942846956 | Mario F. Schlitzer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden is the Democrat nominee for President, market resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 213.73586755157595, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1087.1341211366973 | 1300 | MarioFSchlitzer | 1720234538685 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c | 73 | 7 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pmkxr5ahkw", "prob": 0.2760244553925931, "text": "Trump wins the popular vote", "index": 0, "poolNo": 88.20918158922758, "userId": "2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 231.3609864372487, "textFts": "'popular':4 'trump':1 'vote':5 'win':2", "contractId": "09yu8wax0i", "createdTime": 1719... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711562515546 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720234535587 | 1719958306545 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 5im5cu0mfr | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-nr29qdjk5i | 50 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 171 and 172? | 1720594740000 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1719944247720 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapt... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.023590158543515094, "month": -0.023590158543515094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dwax | 1719945701172 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719945698084 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3m3j2g6m7e | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-i-qualify-for-mop-in-2025 | 0 | Will I qualify for MOP in 2025? | 1748753940000 | f5yqDPdksPXe4rLFDPBkHBL8KJG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719944795227 | Arjun S | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ArjunS | 1719944795373 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJyzcEBXC5O4B9C-y340BRA1b2QvLV5kVSK1QtTKuewPow=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705806204266 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dkknh6z9yh | {"NO": 523.800448142482, "YES": 1909.123987095143} | 0.21529663665502308 | metaculus-will-president-joe-biden | 6794.9244397355105 | [Metaculus] Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | 1737565200000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.313196747301973 | False | public | 1719944908198 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2847033633449769, "month": -0.2847033633449769} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 134.66785838972055, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1720107587878 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 30 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720107584832 | 1719946471210 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | tsehgn28xf | {"NO": 1220.5731375783073, "YES": 8.192872423721099} | 0.99333243892081 | will-france-beat-portugal | 1308.0338791207553 | Will France Beat Portugal | 1720241940000 | dHJuqFF5UZUCIGzKtJgEdA2EXTX2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719945121673 | Darkmoon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.3401583053221907, "week": 0.49333243892081, "month": 0.49333243892081} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.33995552335195, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 889.647583312774 | 100 | Darkmoonnjsf | 1720232331305 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLtyK9JxFJhGfgkx9V1wCxt-dEYDCgRP-CdjvXTo5q5EuBC-w=s96-c | 11 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719734940566 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720232328126 | 1720219204080 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
thtrkru9x8 | uk-politics-assuming-labour-wins-th | 4327.2539908073995 | UK politics: Assuming Labour wins the UK general election, when will Joe Biden's first phone call to Keir Starmer be? | 1720202652633 | kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | lykojbc1ca | public | 1719946168504 | kevor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.79142601403243, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 3768.6018114685176 | 1720202652633 | 1400 | kevor | 1720202663331 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNurTspI79nxGwhPOv0b6qMiLSHmI_dVif1qkHj2qO05M=s96-c | 8 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "lykojbc1ca", "prob": 0.9473326663176617, "text": "5 July", "index": 0, "poolNo": 823.3925897260594, "userId": "kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.77683618071876, "textFts": "'5':1 'juli':2", "contractId": "thtrkru9x8", "resolverId": "kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1", "createdTime": 171... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709232126438 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720202457533 | 1720202662420 | {"lykojbc1ca": 100} | kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 5uvzuytwcn | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up | 0 | Will "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719947613863 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719947614136 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kjdrsf9f9j | {"NO": 468.52128566581774, "YES": 2134.3747458109497} | 0.1799999999999999 | will-there-be-a-debate-between-pote | 2448.816476619988 | Will there be a debate between potential presidential candidates in the Democratic party between now and the convention? | 1724396340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.661817338884543 | False | basic | public | 1719948536777 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.). Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.32000000000000006, "month": -0.32000000000000006} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.08941905095286, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720019660329 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720019657177 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3d2d43cngw | which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p | 600 | Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next? | 1719957166910 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719950434229 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "proof of the value of BB(5)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discuss.bbchallenge.org/t/july-2nd-2024-we-have-proved-bb-5-47-176-870/237", "class": "break-anywhere hover:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.330000661475202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719957166910 | 1000 | EvanDaniel | 1719957215394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 3 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "tpawzhygwu", "prob": 0.19, "text": "BB(6)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 163.04091932183314, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 681.4921773826873, "textFts": "'6':2 'bb':1", "contractId": "3d2d43cngw", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTi... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719956712164 | 1719957214163 | 0.33 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | vpgphmnjpr | {"NO": 65.87828274592209, "YES": 151.79509214846672} | 0.3026474081999468 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-pres-cl2wh5pgrd | 278.6302940206997 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race before Trump announces his VP? | 1722581940000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719950518595 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether Biden drops out or not is based on the resolution of this market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ma... | BINARY | {"day": -0.2573525918000534, "week": -0.1973525918000532, "month": -0.1973525918000532} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.174866649196137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 65 | 100 | AndrewG | 1720195515186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 13 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1654655993992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720195511965 | 1719960847294 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ptmsefsjp | {"NO": 1096.7710485184068, "YES": 911.7673204000673} | 0.5460543176523825 | will-i-work-4h-or-more-on-graphshee | 100 | Will I work 4h or more on GraphSheets this week? | 1720472340000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658407367279 | False | basic | public | 1719950759515 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom. I am developing it in Qt.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For an idea of what I'm trying to make see ", "type": "text"}, {"text":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04605431765238255, "month": 0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1720032680461 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720032676863 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999895 | a2kc4vqx7y | {"NO": 994.9874371066205, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-evivcmbp3s | 1293.3208135116397 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 3 than it closed on July 2?" | 1720026268155 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719950774900 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes early on July 3.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.402153331117415, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720026268155 | 100 | JimFix | 1720026268155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025114364 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | pamh63r4zj | {"NO": 788.6308191483133, "YES": 1268.0204421632357} | 0.3834538377913403 | will-bidens-interview-with-george-s | 932.5784359207652 | Will Biden's interview with George Stephanopoulos increase his odds of winning? | 1720421940000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579108778715574 | False | basic | public | 1719951823917 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Biden's odds of winning the presidency on Polymarket are higher immediately after the extended interview first airing than immediately before the airing of the extended interview began. Resolves to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0.018478120808747, "week": -0.11654616220865971, "month": -0.11654616220865971} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.15646776963839, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 352.5784359207651 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720224845270 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720224842197 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | 32oy3ido3q | {"NO": 1974.7536811227903, "YES": 506.3922703673251} | 0.7959038765683264 | will-netherlands-beat-turkiye-euro | 9242.382173397265 | Will Netherlands beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024 | 1720324740000 | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.619430836537088 | False | basic | public | 1719953663870 | The Official | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.006527968816348539, "week": 0.2959038765683264, "month": 0.2959038765683264} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 188.420053557027, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 178.6091639267073 | 1000 | 10thOfficial | 1720247908269 | 0 | 56 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682437068858 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247905204 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
k9etac9rcf | if-trump-is-reelected-or-speaker-jo | 54.670365012306675 | If Trump is re-elected or Speaker Johnson steals the election, which political enemy will he baselessly arrest first? | 1736985540000 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719953940450 | Stephen S Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other possibilities welcome. Eventually all will likely be sent to camps, which is what Hitler to his enemies before turning on the Jews and others. But this question closes Jan 6, 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6807319707683397, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StephenSPower | 1720048110767 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c | 3 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ayi40zbg80", "prob": 0.6000000000000001, "text": "Biden", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.412414523193153, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13.608276348795432, "textFts": "'biden':1", "contractId": "k9etac9rcf", "createdTime": 1719953940450, "probChanges": {"day": -0.115068317083... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696858950851 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719963513575 | 1720048109538 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
phatrlf5uj | which-masters-league-users-will-sta | 349.9146798637814 | Which Masters League users will stay in Masters League after Season 15 (July)? | 1722571140000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719954962221 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the top 11 resolve YES at the end of the league. If it becomes top N for some other N, those N resolve YES and the rest resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I welcome you to ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.679529636265032, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 290 | Bayesian | 1720150651693 | 0 | 10 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "t2swa35g0d", "prob": 0.41271746317319447, "text": "@jacksonpolack", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.383065880475952, "userId": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.92880998739361, "textFts": "'jacksonpolack':1", "contractId": "phatrlf5uj", "createdTime": 1719954962221, "probChanges": {"day":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720150648552 | False | prob-desc | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | qsqjyv36vu | {"NO": 803.9271025760283, "YES": 1243.8938764418976} | 0.39257684671321635 | will-warren-buffet-familys-yettoben | 865 | Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030? | 1893484740000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577743456977732 | False | basic | public | 1719955161751 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Buffet family charitable trust donates to an organization associated with the Effective Altruism movement (e.g. GiveWell, OpenPhil, etc.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Re... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10742315328678365, "month": -0.10742315328678365} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.559058988948365, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720005665775 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720005662597 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 71m98q3o7j | {"NO": 941.6965821485123, "YES": 1061.9131671036414} | 0.47 | will-tesla-reveal-on-88-or-before-t | 1288.7168357553473 | Will Tesla reveal on 8/8 or before that Travis Kalanick joined / will join the company? | 1723273140000 | x5chPs89hAU1hbh3Uyy3rYMv6mb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.971046646537026 | False | basic | public | 1719955740602 | Yves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.030000000000000027, "month": -0.030000000000000027} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.18371530963124, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Yves | 1720015269162 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7ZsDr2fqHR-ENTYtY_0tjjO-vjfLljEErGrHFtiQ=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676618381938 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720015265662 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
324xn5o62n | which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p-xc5phscquq | 1204.367496785078 | Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next? | 4102556340000 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719957146840 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "proof of the value of BB(5)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discuss.bbchallenge.org/t/july-2nd-2024-we-have-proved-bb-5-47-176-870/237", "class": "break-anywhere hover:... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.873245789593447, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 500 | 1000 | EvanDaniel | 1720201573786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 5 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "heiswok8so", "prob": 0.06676923006804195, "text": "BB(6)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 94.56897150144567, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1321.7866073344055, "textFts": "'6':2 'bb':1", "contractId": "324xn5o62n", "createdTime": 1719957146840, "probChanges": {"day": -0.040108762... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720201570689 | 1719979312435 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 1edm179r5x | {"NO": 682.3043652488071, "YES": 1465.62157730787} | 0.3176573045328836 | will-kamala-harris-debate-donald-tr | 8344.228264033225 | Will Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump before the 2024 election? | 1735685940000 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.591640590180493 | False | basic | public | 1719958091729 | Simon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.10166379429447564, "week": -0.1823426954671164, "month": -0.1823426954671164} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 185.09655106834467, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1673.140483323257 | 1000 | Simon74fe | 1720230487104 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645874228924 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720230483265 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12ltnm3y57 | who-will-be-on-the-democratic-ticke | 105379.39169047147 | Who will be on the Democratic Ticket in 2024? | 1724363940000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719958426632 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone who is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President will resolve YES. Everyone else will resolve NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve after t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1093.0299735225728, "platformFee": 92.40602327181361, "liquidityFee": 0} | 16572.935633690922 | 1700 | Lion | 1720248071173 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 263 | 76 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b2ma1umgew", "prob": 0.5764283309127083, "text": "Joe Biden", "index": 0, "poolNo": 194.42761839143523, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.86950592509754, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "12ltnm3y57", "createdTime": 1719958426632, "probChanges": {"day": 0.1... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691095902341 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720248068107 | 1720191689148 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6kel5pf5su | {"NO": 1096.7710485184068, "YES": 911.7673204000673} | 0.5460543176523825 | will-i-recommend-using-aws-lambda-f | 100 | Will I recommend using AWS Lambda for your B2B startup? | 1740902340000 | pGmU9G0N15dYnQo9F9iJnRphtTP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658407367279 | False | basic | public | 1719960324159 | ektimo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If somebody reaches out to me and describes what their B2B startup is going to do, this question will resolve to Yes if I will recommend using AWS Lambda for at least some piece of it. If nobody reaches out to me then it will resolve to whatever I ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04605431765238255, "month": 0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ektimo | 1719990638313 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNQJdfYFTXF3CyaiefWPE7LT5SL-FAgFfrN1oOtg-oWitI8Q=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715204442290 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719990635242 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h7hq7i0giu | which-segment-comes-first-twice-in | 6848.252712907319 | Which segment comes first twice in a row? | 1720566540000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.295830929615325 | False | plus | public | 1719961691934 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can set limit orders if the roll of the day is done i will not roll the next before the next day starts ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ask every day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 134.2180740358207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1411.4941704302394 | 10000 | Base | 1720217120234 | 0 | 8 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "hc85kijqxg", "prob": 0.1227682922218252, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 373.13113659839735, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2666.180804991548, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "h7hq7i0giu", "createdTime": 1719961691934, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06780313769354801, "we... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720217042645 | 1720216953125 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | ioxcfdmhdr | {"NO": 984.7390856333453, "YES": 1099.0743227062596} | 0.1272898374774907 | will-grant-applications-and-grand-n | 100 | Will "Grant applications and grand narratives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905073181957796 | False | public | 1719961706385 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.01271016252250931, "month": -0.01271016252250931} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.9256772937403596, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719976846517 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719976841936 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | tnjuup1zzr | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-grant-applications-and-grand-n | 0 | Will "Grant applications and grand narratives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719961706388 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719961706572 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | qy185dixhx | {"NO": 10.93241469148279, "YES": 914.7110022995037} | 0.0118106113983083 | will-basedbeffjezos-fall-in-love-wi | 820 | Will BasedBeffJezos fall in love with, make out with, or have babby with @deepfates by 2035? | 2051240340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719962066840 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": -0.4881893886016917, "month": -0.4881893886016917} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.288997700496415, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719968578825 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719968575186 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | reku76scru | {"NO": 272.34211248378193, "YES": 3671.852255532287} | 0.0690488568951459 | will-basedbeffjezos-fall-in-love-or | 2887.6691110705074 | Will BasedBeffJezos fall in love, make out with, or have babby with janus/repligate by 2035? | 2051240340000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.851566258098003 | False | basic | public | 1719962085170 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4309511431048541, "month": -0.4309511431048541} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.4786333972059, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1720015197641 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720015194450 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | rebnn89xb2 | {"NO": 133.98825376616296, "YES": 74.63340792135452} | 0.6422547528494732 | will-there-be-a-supersonic-transpac | 35 | Will there be a supersonic Trans-Pacific flight commercially available by the end of 2040? | 1735707540000 | G8u0SvKGiqey6fHNCpHGbvRl78J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719962308835 | FB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to yes if there are tickets available for flights that cross a meaningful amount of the Pacific Ocean at speeds greater than the speed of sound (767 mph).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1422547528494732, "month": 0.1422547528494732} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.011746233837043, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | huge_uranium | 1719997885017 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhuge_uranium%2FvyJMoQzQq1._V1_?alt=media&token=e2ef2a29-75c7-4469-aeed-2db65edf2cda | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690493739295 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719997881927 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 78k8jspg7x | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-michael-retchin-raise-more-tha | 0 | Will Michael Retchin raise more than $5 million by EOY 2025? | 1767243540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719962882765 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719962882831 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
psxa77qgp6 | if-trump-wins-who-will-be-the-white | 400 | If Trump wins, who will be the White House’s important AI policy officials in 2025? | 1767254340000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719963373864 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES to all the important named individuals that serve as AI policy officials to the White House in 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add answers in the ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.882295806667678, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719973971876 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ANYONE | [{"id": "u83dbsgebp", "prob": 0.374959549120977, "text": "Lynne Parker", "index": 0, "poolNo": 129.08830445037785, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 215.18431043035102, "textFts": "'lynn':1 'parker':2", "contractId": "psxa77qgp6", "createdTime": 1719963373864, "probChanges": {"day":... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719973968707 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | bz4qxqbhr5 | {"NO": 419.41993229478226, "YES": 2384.2452945158743} | 0.14959700904515574 | will-an-effective-accelerationist-e | 1412 | Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025? | 1767254340000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.691382475900255 | False | basic | public | 1719963982874 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be an e/acc means that, at the time of appointment to a leading AI policy role, the person has described themself in the past as an e/acc and not renounced or walked the term back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3504029909548443, "month": -0.3504029909548443} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.7547054841253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1720080717788 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720080714719 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | jx4l25izlj | {"NO": 1090.9708360989362, "YES": 916.61478649216} | 0.5434243121799569 | can-this-candle-be-saved-slow-burn | 1683.142694788287 | Can this candle be saved? [SLOW BURN] | 1720324740000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571510594085897 | False | basic | public | 1719965170516 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Due to extremely poor wick/wax/receptacle management, this candle is suffering from severe tunneling and two of the three wicks are buried by wax. I will now perform a sustained burn in hopes of reversing the tunneling.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0.027772964665323308, "week": 0.0434243121799569, "month": 0.0434243121799569} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.53979502423812, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 187.82818927806764 | 1000 | MichaelWheatley | 1720241342878 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650546876537 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720241339793 | 1720097557785 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n5r0zvf1s6 | which-teams-will-be-in-the-final-of | 355.6188181778313 | Which teams will be in the final of Euros 2024? | 1721138340000 | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719965869803 | TP King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.351480694543169, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 208.85125221416317 | 100 | tpking | 1720238069921 | 0 | 5 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "z2zq68s6jp", "prob": 0.4284587513725784, "text": "England", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.82282739534636, "userId": "Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.43707769627602, "textFts": "'england':1", "contractId": "n5r0zvf1s6", "createdTime": 1719965869803, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697442193885 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720238066827 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jro2bq9wla | which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden | 47252.416794121535 | Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview? | 1720220960492 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719967720862 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These options resolve YES if Joe Biden says the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sequence of words during his upcoming ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ABC interview with George Stephanop... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 825.2210540311273, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 18714.052969987828 | 5100 | Ziddletwix | 1720231805424 | 0 | 175 | 105 | ANYONE | [{"id": "8g2rcsquoy", "prob": 0.7845746341814488, "text": "\"Drop out\"", "index": 0, "poolNo": 190.83969418540477, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.40000012934823, "textFts": "'drop':1", "contractId": "jro2bq9wla", "createdTime": 1719967720862, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05457463... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720220958878 | 1720231804011 | False | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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