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0fh4mivr6o | which-party-will-the-economist-endo-h8rounj836 | 3380.1705483497667 | Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)? | 1719898092750 | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1719883699905 | Greg Rosenthal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_editorial_stance#British_general_elections", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "for their past endorsement record.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.997640308088354, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719898092750 | 1000 | gregrosent | 1719898212523 | 0 | 10 | 10 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ecemo50h5h", "prob": 0.11073450597828316, "text": "Conservative", "index": 0, "poolNo": 101.86738150933246, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 818.0570865630705, "textFts": "'conserv':1", "contractId": "0fh4mivr6o", "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "createdTime": 1719883699906, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13926549402171684, "week": -0.13926549402171684, "month": -0.13926549402171684}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13926549402171684, "probChangeWeek": -0.13926549402171684, "resolutionTime": 1719898092750, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.13926549402171684}, {"id": "t2w9m1h4tk", "prob": 0.11073450597828316, "text": "Liberal Democrat", "index": 1, "poolNo": 101.86738150933246, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 818.0570865630705, "textFts": "'democrat':2 'liber':1", "contractId": "0fh4mivr6o", "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "createdTime": 1719883699906, "probChanges": {"day": -0.13926549402171684, "week": -0.13926549402171684, "month": -0.13926549402171684}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.13926549402171684, "probChangeWeek": -0.13926549402171684, "resolutionTime": 1719898092750, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.13926549402171684}, {"id": "oplik0j9bg", "prob": 0.7478473369457111, "text": "Labour", "index": 2, "poolNo": 497.1461415393231, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 167.62341366123604, "textFts": "'labour':1", "contractId": "0fh4mivr6o", "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "createdTime": 1719883699906, "probChanges": {"day": 0.49784733694571115, "week": 0.49784733694571115, "month": 0.49784733694571115}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.49784733694571115, "probChangeWeek": 0.49784733694571115, "resolutionTime": 1719898092750, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.49784733694571115}, {"id": "yl7av47o8h", "prob": 0.030683651097722194, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 51.36060442235197, "userId": "UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1622.5146543849264, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0fh4mivr6o", "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "createdTime": 1719883699906, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2193163489022778, "week": -0.2193163489022778, "month": -0.2193163489022778}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2193163489022778, "probChangeWeek": -0.2193163489022778, "resolutionTime": 1719898092750, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.2193163489022778}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690354568795 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719897452847 | 1719898210623 | qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jkenyehucu | how-many-medals-will-simone-biles-w | 974.7009465395421 | How many medals will Simone Biles win at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | 1723013940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719890366494 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Simone Biles is widely considered to be the greatest gymnast of all time—she has 23 gold medals at the World Championships, 14 more than the nearest competitor. Despite, that, at the most recent Olympics in Tokyo, Simone only won two medals—many fewer than expected.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At this Olympic Games, Simone plans to bring the heat (and a floor routine with music from Taylor Swift & Beyonce). She could potentially win up to 6 medals (Team, All Around, Vault, Balance Beam, Floor Exercise, and Uneven Bars). How many will she win?", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.028577854376543, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719963557152 | 0 | 8 | 8 | DISABLED | [{"id": "iiuzng5dux", "prob": 0.17972523162281634, "text": "2 or fewer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 135.1245393847794, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 616.7150223989606, "textFts": "'2':1 'fewer':3", "contractId": "jkenyehucu", "createdTime": 1719890366494, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08234667357605124, "week": -0.08234667357605124, "month": -0.08234667357605124}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08234667357605124, "probChangeWeek": -0.08234667357605124, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.08234667357605124}, {"id": "7mf4krgvah", "prob": 0.30067208760853, "text": "3", "index": 1, "poolNo": 189.28469609649886, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 440.2539405026668, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "jkenyehucu", "createdTime": 1719890366494, "probChanges": {"day": 0.029908802441551918, "week": 0.029908802441551918, "month": 0.029908802441551918}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.029908802441551918, "probChangeWeek": 0.029908802441551918, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.029908802441551918}, {"id": "i1v2kcqjys", "prob": 0.30250348792821, "text": "4", "index": 2, "poolNo": 190.1093820337844, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 438.3441387365317, "textFts": "'4':1", "contractId": "jkenyehucu", "createdTime": 1719890366494, "probChanges": {"day": 0.031627978366621345, "week": 0.031627978366621345, "month": 0.031627978366621345}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.031627978366621345, "probChangeWeek": 0.031627978366621345, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.031627978366621345}, {"id": "rpet18tpu5", "prob": 0.21709919284044357, "text": "5 or more", "index": 3, "poolNo": 152.01453345617995, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 548.1931986283082, "textFts": "'5':1", "contractId": "jkenyehucu", "createdTime": 1719890366494, "probChanges": {"day": 0.02080989276787787, "week": 0.02080989276787787, "month": 0.02080989276787787}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.02080989276787787, "probChangeWeek": 0.02080989276787787, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.02080989276787787}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719963554061 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iu3d0ked0i | how-many-gold-medals-will-the-us-wo | 635.449101654983 | How many GOLD 🥇 medals will the US women's artistic gymnastics team win at the 2024 Olympics? | 1723013940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719890812903 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2020 Olympics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnastics_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics#Artistic_gymnastics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the US women's artistic gymnastics team won 6 total medals but only ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2 were gold ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(Sunisa Lee in the All-Around and Jade Carey on the Floor Exercise). Both athletes are returning to the Olympics for Team USA and hoping to defend their titles, plus Simone Biles (the gymnastics GOAT) is back and as strong as ever. How many gold medals will Team USA win at the 2024 Paris Olympics? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "there are six artistic gymnastics events for women: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Team all-around", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Individual all-around", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vault", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Uneven bars", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Balance beam", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Floor exercise", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Therefore the maximum number of gold medals that any single country can win is 6 (the team event counts as a single medal). 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0.49999999999999994 | y1033nuupa | {"NO": 81.86692305842284, "YES": 122.14945458330824} | 0.40127623088273645 | will-i-start-manifold-season-16-at | 85 | Will I start Manifold Season 16 at Diamond League? | 1722581940000 | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719890884355 | dusty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.09872376911726355, "month": -0.09872376911726355} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7741112675002944, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | stardust2 | 1719930156344 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | 4 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717034645753 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719930152221 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vbxhco6vsp | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-99-w | 0 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 99 - World Congress) | 1720130340000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1000000 | False | play | public | 1719891838599 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] NOP", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Combat:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ichabod killed barbarian warrior while defending", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World congress view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6Y67J0wlf-.png?alt=media&token=b1e15355-cec9-499f-88b6-146842523ac7", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/CS88wmn.png", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRD4glHdJ-B.png?alt=media&token=5b2bdf99-179a-4196-8c40-9591637a121b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/MktxTDy.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZEYHn6GHon.png?alt=media&token=44c707f5-6830-479a-8e47-0afb68d13fdd", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/a8IyGWd.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-pIa5b7Uod.png?alt=media&token=cdc85819-0755-43ec-bb18-48cfcb735c98", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/T6RgLWo.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDtvkkQBcTm.png?alt=media&token=c4caa019-33bb-4f0f-9125-ee9112f1083a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/a4LR6AI.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full map view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FoAxIzi-m-T.png?alt=media&token=d75f1bc4-c389-45c1-9970-b21727fdc5fa", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/8xRQS2e.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-98", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-99", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, 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0.5000000000000007 | 6skv683fgj | {"NO": 368.2031983971939, "YES": 2715.8916716450353} | 0.11938776656119958 | biden-officially-nominated-in-july | 25733.03523786135 | Biden formally nominated in July? | 1722427140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.70386373819349 | False | basic | public | 1719894089071 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Joe Biden is formally nominated by the Democratic National Committee as the Democratic presidential candidate by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7IqEtcCuI7.png?alt=media&token=9a5d94a9-3cb7-402e-bc89-7362267c492b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/democrats-weigh-early-biden-nomination-to-squash-talk-of-a-swap", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/democrats-weigh-early-biden-nomination-to-squash-talk-of-a-swap", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.002363437709897831, "week": -0.3806122334388004, "month": -0.3806122334388004} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 596.7965053174813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 314.22140573717974 | 1000 | jim | 1720220657098 | 0 | 134 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720220653955 | 1719976758080 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | g7pj3ye838 | {"NO": 587.2596772280364, "YES": 1702.8242169122966} | 0.25643587937134776 | will-saudi-arabia-adopt-the-chinese | 942 | Will Saudi Arabia adopt the Chinese Yuan for trading oil by 2030? | 1893477540000 | hXoxhZ7koFY3AfvsfcBlCr081jC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.614869998762893 | False | basic | public | 1719894797862 | Simran 🤍 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Opinion piece from Bloomberg here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Petrodollar Is Dead, Long Live the Petrodollar ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-27/the-petrodollar-is-dead-long-live-the-petrodollar", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-27/the-petrodollar-is-dead-long-live-the-petrodollar", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.24356412062865224, "month": -0.24356412062865224} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.411658216804863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimranRahman | 1719944893487 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692236590304 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719944890200 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9ym64ufikx | {"NO": 49.363954499667116, "YES": 202.57696331981327} | 0.19593464581659245 | will-the-class-action-lawsuit-again-hhix5fmpmy | 161.8623912179915 | Will the GameStop class action lawsuit against Keith Gill Deep Fucking Value Roaring Kitty survive a motion to dismiss? | 1722571140000 | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719895430511 | Benjamin Ikuta | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/roaring-kitty-securities-fraud-gamestop-gme-lawsuit-doomed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/roaring-kitty-securities-fraud-gamestop-gme-lawsuit-doomed", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "market may be resolved or extended as appropriate ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3040653541834075, "month": -0.3040653541834075} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.5849861323426904, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | benjaminIkuta | 1720005020374 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666832885921 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720005016906 | 1719895462595 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 4zvmg7xxja | {"NO": 340.09991218581933, "YES": 2940.3124322291255} | 0.10367596401862564 | will-donald-trump-say-skibidi | 4977.860552922281 | Will Donald Trump say "skibidi"? | 1767254340000 | iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.097195938035131 | False | basic | public | 1719896537669 | Nicholas Charette | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Donald Trump write or say \"skibidi\" before 2026? Any publicly accessible recording, social media post, or other writing counts, so long as it is clearly attributable to Donald Trump.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0036759640186256326, "week": -0.39632403598137433, "month": -0.39632403598137433} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.71041424644758, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 59.26213691659184 | 1000 | NicholasCharette73b6 | 1720164969017 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c | 43 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1657243737593 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720164965787 | 1719908868685 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5809505759616327 | z7sbmovr9z | {"NO": 2094.3339552333955, "YES": 584.9433023929853} | 0.8323190470513859 | will-an-llm-consistently-create-5x5 | 2003.2885441614014 | Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026? | 1767340740000 | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.760110429643092 | False | basic | public | 1719898155588 | Caleb Biddulph | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given unlimited opportunities to fix its own mistakes within a single response, will an LLM be able to generate a 5x5 \"word square,\" a square of letters where each row and column spells a word? It must succeed in 16 out of 20 trials, incorporating a random 5-letter word each time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Example from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Scott Alexander", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/27/a-modern-myth/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "D E T E R", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E X I L E", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "T I T A N", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E L A T E", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "R E N E W", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This one happens to be the same 5 words vertically and horizontally, but that isn't a requirement for this challenge.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude 3.5, GPT-4o, and Gemini Ultra are currently quite bad at this task. An attempt from GPT-4o: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://chatgpt.com/share/e0ec10b4-5852-41c6-926e-bf6b4049a7e8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chatgpt.com/share/e0ec10b4-5852-41c6-926e-bf6b4049a7e8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In January of 2026, I will generate 20 common 5-letter words using an LLM. For each word, I will send this prompt to the best LLM I have access to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Create a 5x5 \"word square\" where each row and column spells a word. Afterwards, read off each of the rows and columns and determine whether they all make sense. If necessary, redo the square until it's correct. One of the words should be <WORD>.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will let the LLM give one response, which may be as long as it wants. I will look at the last word square that the LLM wrote down. I will count the trial as passing if it contains the given word and every word is in the Scrabble dictionary. If at least 16 out of 20 trials pass, this market will resolve YES, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the rules seem very clear cut to me, I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.33231904705138593, "month": 0.33231904705138593} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.06847157835592, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CDBiddulph | 1719999357409 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | 23 | 18 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700327636837 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719999354315 | 1719932618177 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ymzubqn06p | {"NO": 33.3333333333333, "YES": 299.9999999999999} | 0.09999999999999998 | will-mrbeast-be-elected-president-o | 1603.57678319816 | Will MrBeast be elected President or Vice President of the United States before 2100? | 4118799540000 | iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719898271574 | Nicholas Charette | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4, "month": -0.4} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.980469945877577, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | NicholasCharette73b6 | 1720138125391 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1657243737593 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720138122315 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ltx4xjufjs | {"NO": 234.19067017263512, "YES": 4270.024929954912} | 0.051993663484048956 | congress-impeaches-supreme-court-ju | 3309 | Congress impeaches Supreme Court justices by EOY? | 1735642740000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.904354470125575 | False | basic | public | 1719898382705 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if 2 or more Supreme Court justices are impeached by Congress by EOY", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-justices-impeachment-aoc-1919728", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-justices-impeachment-aoc-1919728", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.44800633651595106, "month": -0.44800633651595106} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.975070045087556, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jim | 1719959743946 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719959740851 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 0gy5o8mr6s | {"NO": 414.5029932477395, "YES": 2412.5278135261187} | 0.14662132165470146 | will-trumps-hush-money-convictions | 3439.7828945994224 | Will Trump's hush money convictions be overturned due to the Supreme Court's grant of presidential immunity? | 1735685940000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.694795247816742 | False | basic | public | 1719900528213 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Supreme Court has declared that presidents are above criminal law when they act in their official capacity, with fairly vague and very broad limits to that capacity. Trump has accordingly moved to vacate his convictions for doctoring business records with the intent to cover up felonies, something he did while president: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/nyregion/trump-sentence-hush-money.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/nyregion/trump-sentence-hush-money.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will he succeed?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve when he either succeeds or fails with no further appeals. (Closing time may therefore be extended.)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.02771107772244344, "week": -0.35337867834529857, "month": -0.35337867834529857} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.297059215586614, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1720164525924 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720164522845 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | w6iklhcab2 | {"NO": 79.4244059297973, "YES": 125.90588349932302} | 0.3868129059313213 | will-trumps-vice-president-candidat-vvizfj5r2p | 40 | Will Trump's vice president candidate in 2024 be a sitting or former congressperson? | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719901702197 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.11318709406867872, "month": -0.11318709406867872} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2249088539773156, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719926210968 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719926207528 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
htbkcg4l2d | how-will-your-milk-drinking-habits | 0 | How will your milk drinking habits change in the coming year | 1720508340000 | xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719902460898 | eats_indigo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | EatsIndigo | 1719934545588 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXdaz5wfXKY0-yi2asbCL-4Ti_jVDHt3-CEBrSdW7wdUEWA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "4pyr5pyqp3", "prob": 0.2, "text": "I drink alternative milks, I will continue to do the same in the coming year", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.5, "userId": "xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'altern':3 'come':14 'continu':7 'drink':2 'milk':4 'year':15", "contractId": "htbkcg4l2d", "createdTime": 1719902460899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "tru71ou7zk", "prob": 0.2, "text": "I drink alternative milks, I will drink more dairy milk and less alternative milk in the coming year", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.5, "userId": "xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'altern':3,13 'come':17 'dairi':9 'drink':2,7 'less':12 'milk':4,10,14 'year':18", "contractId": "htbkcg4l2d", "createdTime": 1719902460899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ku289ley49", "prob": 0.2, "text": "I drink dairy milk, I will continue to do the same in the coming year", "index": 2, "poolNo": 12.5, "userId": "xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'come':14 'continu':7 'dairi':3 'drink':2 'milk':4 'year':15", "contractId": "htbkcg4l2d", "createdTime": 1719902460899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3ecfb5z23x", "prob": 0.2, "text": "I drink dairy milk, I will drink less dairy milk and more alternative milk next in coming year", "index": 3, "poolNo": 12.5, "userId": "xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'altern':13 'come':17 'dairi':3,9 'drink':2,7 'less':8 'milk':4,10,14 'next':15 'year':18", "contractId": "htbkcg4l2d", "createdTime": 1719902460899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "908ybmk56r", "prob": 0.2, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 12.5, "userId": "xGHn6OmwtxRrFmC1DzGkdr0Ls342", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "", "contractId": "htbkcg4l2d", "createdTime": 1719902460899, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719726129289 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719934544528 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | y7exuaoqt1 | {"NO": 1051.3876523021474, "YES": 951.1239720291298} | 0.5250344814618741 | will-joe-scarborough-and-mika-brzez | 149 | Will Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski still be married on 1st Jan 2031? | 1925067540000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570723208700919 | False | basic | public | 1719907538700 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is designed to speculate on whether Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski will remain married for at least 12 years. Joe's previous marriages to Melanie Hinton and Susan Waren lasted approximately 12 years each. Joe and Mika married in 2018, so this market will resolve in 2031, roughly 12 years from their marriage date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Key Dates:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe and Mika's marriage date: November 24, 2018", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution date: 1st Jan 2031", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski are still legally married on 1st January 2031.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"No\" if Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski are not legally married on 1st January 2031, due to divorce, legal separation, or annulment.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any official announcements, legal documents, or credible news reports confirming their marital status will be used to determine the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If either spouse passes away before the resolution date, while they're still married, I will resolve to YES which is more in line with the intent of the market", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.025034481461874147, "month": 0.025034481461874147} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.995120230882854, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1719912432302 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912428829 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | je24zmi88q | {"NO": 201.65143806539214, "YES": 49.590521624533025} | 0.8026184731016426 | will-any-company-or-space-agency-ot | 213.57717522478944 | Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027? | 1798757940000 | fbpfSOUed3U3rzC4jsQTYJ79TxA3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719908892852 | Janko Prester | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if reusable rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit and booster rocket lands vertically in Falcon 9-like fashion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Update 2026-07-03 ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "edited back to original resolution criteria: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if a reused rocket successfully reaches at least low stage orbit.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.3026184731016426, "month": 0.3026184731016426} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.012802370931564, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JankoPrester | 1720123273482 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | 8 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700601482328 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720078605665 | 1720123271636 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999956 | 0gi5i8utq4 | {"NO": 39.249248778686436, "YES": 254.78194643639534} | 0.13348668242488973 | will-china-develop-domestic-gpu-wit | 312.74442694984964 | Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026? | 1767221940000 | fbpfSOUed3U3rzC4jsQTYJ79TxA3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719909695535 | Janko Prester | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In recent years, US has implemented sanctions regime against China that tries to prevent access to the most cutting edge GPUs required for AI training runs. China is trying to develop its own domestic alternatives. Will they succeed?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if there is official, verifiable announcement from any Chinese company that they developed GPU of similar capability like H100 by 31.12.2025. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidias-ai-chips-sales-in-china-hampered-by-us-sanctions-but-gaming-gpu-shipments-increase", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidias-ai-chips-sales-in-china-hampered-by-us-sanctions-but-gaming-gpu-shipments-increase", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.3665133175751103, "month": -0.3665133175751103} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.384156306884554, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JankoPrester | 1720024834821 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | 11 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700601482328 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719935166083 | 1719924864262 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | dyxxjewwt0 | {"NO": 90.45340337332905, "YES": 110.55415967851339} | 0.44999999999999984 | will-rimac-selfdriving-taxi-project | 207.52325523565804 | Will Rimac self-driving Taxi project in the city of Zagreb be functional by the end of 2026? | 1798757940000 | fbpfSOUed3U3rzC4jsQTYJ79TxA3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719910595670 | Janko Prester | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.motortrend.com/news/2026-rimac-verne-first-look-review-autonomous-robotaxi/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.motortrend.com/news/2026-rimac-verne-first-look-review-autonomous-robotaxi/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://electrek.co/2024/06/26/rimac-launches-new-autonomous-level-4-electric-car-brand-verne/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electrek.co/2024/06/26/rimac-launches-new-autonomous-level-4-electric-car-brand-verne/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Question resolves YES if by 31.12.2026 you are able to use Rimac self driving Taxi solution in the city of Zagreb. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: It resolves NO even if the self driving service in Zagreb is available but is made by some other company/solution while Rimac is still not available.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.050000000000000155, "month": -0.050000000000000155} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.83740258061356, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JankoPrester | 1720045201164 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | 5 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700601482328 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720044992757 | 1720045199936 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | qbq48lynif | {"NO": 373.03605914780985, "YES": 2680.7059947085795} | 0.12215702982402363 | will-either-the-house-or-the-senate | 2273.2682075381117 | Will either the House or the Senate vote on a constitutional amendment overturning Trump v. United States? | 1735685940000 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.727611767201306 | False | basic | public | 1719911355359 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both the House and Senate must approve such an amendment by a 2/3 majority for it to be effective, but this question resolves YES if a proposed amendment advances to a vote at all, in either body, in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any amendment rescinding the immunities from criminal law that the Supreme Court established in Trump v. United States will qualify.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: \"any vote at all\" includes any vote in committee. It doesn't have to go to the floor.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.37784297017597634, "month": -0.37784297017597634} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.59665299517695, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1720047121112 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720047117812 | 1719941416893 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4026829726012957 | sf9wxu6w5b | {"NO": 5726.688825361518, "YES": 20874.197858696127} | 0.15608187536211401 | will-ww3-happen-before-gta6 | 15962.50668795531 | Will WW3 happen before GTA6? | 1767135540000 | S4VjEDodemekIjNKvjwSBqUsVaP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0218638939272062 | False | plus | public | 1719914571899 | Enrico Caminiti | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0002615824947835854, "week": -0.34391812463788596, "month": -0.34391812463788596} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 283.7917250859851, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 25 | 10000 | EnricoCaminiti | 1720169893531 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhm00d_wSgp5sGpXhmV7NPRRQgWdEar-nQYG7-QzSx4uM_zw=s96-c | 63 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719848932617 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720169889959 | 1719997937538 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4459401657222769 | n4m42wmgrg | {"NO": 180.48592194083292, "YES": 224.24533084619705} | 0.39312963138343 | will-prominent-nrx-xcom-account-zer | 25 | Will prominent NRx x.com account Zero HP Lovecraft get doxxed by media organisation in 2024? | 1735685940000 | fbpfSOUed3U3rzC4jsQTYJ79TxA3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719915043941 | Janko Prester | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/06/doxxing-far-right-influencers-anonymity/678645/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/06/doxxing-far-right-influencers-anonymity/678645/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "There were several popular anonymous RW accounts that got doxxed recently: Lomez and Raw Egg Nationalist. Given ZHP prominence in the RW spaces it is possible that he will also get doxxed by journalists in near future.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if there is an article from prominent media publication writing about his IRL identity by 2024/12/31.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.10687036861657001, "month": -0.10687036861657001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7546691538028619, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | JankoPrester | 1720024880911 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700601482328 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719938168269 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | 4bzc30jzmm | {"NO": 436.4357804719841, "YES": 2291.2878474779177} | 0.15999999999999998 | will-at-least-30-of-manifold-respon | 1707.300728938933 | Will at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024? | 1722398340000 | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.659185341337222 | False | basic | public | 1719920576547 | Steve Sokolowski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fcd_w_FpjaI.png?alt=media&token=1fcfcfb5-af35-46f7-a73b-48f7d31c53e6", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask \"has weak AGI been achieved,\" rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the only way to characterize AI progress is also to allow respondents to vote based upon their own understanding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Progress has been steady. The previous polls are referenced here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "HfUm6MvM7gwfd5GFBy8h", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp"}}, {"text": " (Answer: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "15)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1ft60lrubs", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve"}}, {"text": " (Answer: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "27)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The previous markets on this topic, which significantly understimated Manifold's belief in AI progress, were:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "teXTAdAjhltVnXPT0Om3", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/what-percentage-of-manifold-poll-re"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wg9fmS1fE7n8UJsrqLbO", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/will-at-least-20-of-manifold-respon"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The polls will not reference any specific model, and will not define \"AGI\" except to state that the poll does not require that the software system be able to manipulate the physical world. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close on the 30th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the July 2024 poll results in a ratio of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "/(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO + YES) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "greater than or equal to 0.3. The \"no opinion\" respondents will be ignored. Otherwise, this question will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qrbTyNNkM0EvToS2N7Ox", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/will-one-of-the-monthly-has-weak-ag"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.34, "month": -0.34} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.75851587677199, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SteveSokolowski | 1720093014005 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 29 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692195009054 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720093010883 | 1719942256481 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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a69nnisrms | will-i-promote-to-diamond-this-seas-o4ma9hydoe | 2036.9127585693961 | Will i promote to Masters this Season? (Season 15) | 1722549540000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719922000850 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "last Season i demoted on the 12. Place from Masters to Diamond", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market last Season: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Base/will-i-demote-from-masters-to-diamo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/will-i-demote-from-masters-to-diamo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My League (Unerring Cyclopes)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leagues/15/diamond/unerring-cyclopes/dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.77937651020619, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 150 | 1000 | Base | 1720225407546 | 0 | 6 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "dy9k9yjbya", "prob": 0.18861226743763373, "text": "Yes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 170.46128417494202, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 733.3043430067921, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "a69nnisrms", "createdTime": 1719922000850, "probChanges": {"day": -0.040606078024295555, "week": -0.14472106589569958, "month": -0.14472106589569958}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.040606078024295555, "probChangeWeek": -0.14472106589569958, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.14472106589569958}, {"id": "6lqcrfllzf", "prob": 0.7417111920735721, "text": "No stand in Diamond", "index": 1, "poolNo": 599.1280166904186, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 208.6365459764337, "textFts": "'diamond':4 'stand':2", "contractId": "a69nnisrms", "createdTime": 1719922000850, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05171119207357211, "week": 0.40837785874023874, "month": 0.40837785874023874}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.05171119207357211, "probChangeWeek": 0.40837785874023874, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.40837785874023874}, {"id": "cpipdym9cg", "prob": 0.06967654048879426, "text": "No demote to Platinum", "index": 2, "poolNo": 96.7567583986596, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1291.8994194180405, "textFts": "'demot':2 'platinum':4", "contractId": "a69nnisrms", "createdTime": 1719922000850, "probChanges": {"day": -0.011105114049276485, "week": -0.263656792844539, "month": -0.263656792844539}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.011105114049276485, "probChangeWeek": -0.263656792844539, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.263656792844539}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720225404427 | 1719930751105 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | d0uvrhtakg | {"NO": 792.4548970041083, "YES": 1261.9014707089575} | 0.3857436370138054 | chinaeu-trade-war-by-aug-2025 | 270 | China/EU trade war by Aug 2025? | 1754081940000 | AXCShICabXOEZrWoFSBPxmyU6jk2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.578754035589554 | False | basic | public | 1719926638482 | Peter Buyukliev | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-says-eu-escalation-trade-friction-could-trigger-trade-war-2024-06-21/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-says-eu-escalation-trade-friction-could-trigger-trade-war-2024-06-21/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-may-take-anti-dumping-measures-against-eu-pork-imports-official-says-2024-06-20/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-may-take-anti-dumping-measures-against-eu-pork-imports-official-says-2024-06-20/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on Aug 1st 2025 I can find:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3 different articles on Reuters with \"trade war\" in the title, written after market creation", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "referring to a trade war between Europe/EU and China", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "referring to a ongoing thing, not a possibility", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "will resolve early if anyone can provide 3 such articles", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Article titles that would count towards the resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Trade war heats up\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Another blow in the trade war\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"EU parliament wants an end to the trade war\"", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Article titles that would NOT count towards resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Trade war imminent\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Chinese president warns the EU that he's not afraid of trade war\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The trade war looming ahead\"", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will post any relevant articles I find. If you want to know whether an article counts towards the resolution, ask me in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As the resolution is quite unambiguous, I might trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are a bunch of stocks and commodities that will be affected.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.11425636298619463, "month": -0.11425636298619463} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.098529291042345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | PeterBuyukliev | 1719948197747 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684853185771 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719948194583 | 1719927281639 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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fnrtjteedg | before-2032-how-much-will-be-spent | 2847.8297517757405 | Before 2032, how much will be spent lobbying against regulation of General AI systems? (2024$, best guess) | 1956614340000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719931979272 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.818003438520602, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2000 | NathanpmYoung | 1719988356746 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanpmYoung%2Flove-images%2Fg-n-xy50_N.43?alt=media&token=28208478-6907-4bc5-9fde-15746ee9af90 | 3 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "7j2q6lbjsd", "prob": 0.22009185701649117, "text": "Less than $1bn", "index": 0, "poolNo": 240.06961587447614, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 850.7004795247736, "textFts": "'1bn':3 'less':1", "contractId": "fnrtjteedg", "createdTime": 1719931979272, "probChanges": {"day": 0.02009185701649116, "week": 0.02009185701649116, "month": 0.02009185701649116}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.02009185701649116, "probChangeWeek": 0.02009185701649116, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.02009185701649116}, {"id": "ap3l4n0h63", "prob": 0.28764074278168356, "text": "$1bn - $10bn", "index": 1, "poolNo": 349.020321840847, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 864.369403361434, "textFts": "'10bn':2 '1bn':1", "contractId": "fnrtjteedg", "createdTime": 1719931979272, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08764074278168354, "week": 0.08764074278168354, "month": 0.08764074278168354}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08764074278168354, "probChangeWeek": 0.08764074278168354, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.08764074278168354}, {"id": "c1lfu075tl", "prob": 0.28764074278168356, "text": "$10bn - $50bn", "index": 2, "poolNo": 349.020321840847, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 864.369403361434, "textFts": "'10bn':1 '50bn':2", "contractId": "fnrtjteedg", "createdTime": 1719931979272, "probChanges": {"day": 0.08764074278168354, "week": 0.08764074278168354, "month": 0.08764074278168354}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.08764074278168354, "probChangeWeek": 0.08764074278168354, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.08764074278168354}, {"id": "t1qykhclah", "prob": 0.11154510634335743, "text": "$50bn - $100bn", "index": 3, "poolNo": 147.50763291188383, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1174.8958121825767, "textFts": "'100bn':2 '50bn':1", "contractId": "fnrtjteedg", "createdTime": 1719931979272, "probChanges": {"day": -0.08845489365664258, "week": -0.08845489365664258, "month": -0.08845489365664258}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.08845489365664258, "probChangeWeek": -0.08845489365664258, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.08845489365664258}, {"id": "5z2rx7z5qp", "prob": 0.09308155107678466, "text": "More than $100bn", "index": 4, "poolNo": 128.18349513446606, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1248.9260786920934, "textFts": "'100bn':3", "contractId": "fnrtjteedg", "createdTime": 1719931979272, "probChanges": {"day": -0.10691844892321535, "week": -0.10691844892321535, "month": -0.10691844892321535}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.10691844892321535, "probChangeWeek": -0.10691844892321535, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.10691844892321535}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642188589725 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719954344752 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 030wyfpn1p | {"NO": 1199.0401507827014, "YES": 834.0004288824072} | 0.5897767918534184 | will-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-tdid321h29 | 395 | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia raise interest rates in the August 2024 meeting? | 1722866340000 | TRoaBQ4zl7QEcU8erP4NFaILLCP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575456065407327 | False | basic | public | 1719932267155 | SCM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next RBA meeting is 5-6th August, 2024. The question is, will they leave the interest rates on hold or raise them?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inflation in Australia has edged up in the last monthly reading, and you could argue it's going up now after plateauing. Will RBA buck the central bank trend and raise rates?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html#monthly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html#monthly", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.005591279879799904, "week": 0.08977679185341836, "month": 0.08977679185341836} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.659673820246624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 1000 | SCM | 1720209607356 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJPY8Hrx3CJ04ArRDiFrPyRI9asdXwCvtblBa5RFHrzEQ=s96-c | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704374541395 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720209604152 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i8vpo6bvmh | total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6cwaenmut0 | 62 | Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between July 16th and Aug 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG) | 1723759140000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719933545734 | Limerick Ostrich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The grift counter at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " tracks the rough USD equivalent of value lost to major crypto scams/hacks/fraud. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves based on the total sum added to the leaderboard at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for the one month of market duration. Will resolve based on the value in the first day after market close - estimates for older events are sometimes revisited in light of new evidence, but this won't change ther resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some stats so far (in millions USD):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 16th - Jan 15th: 186", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 16th - Feb 15th: 193 (as of resolution) / 252 (after later updates)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 16th - Mar 15th: 354", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 16th - Apr 15th: 194", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apr 16th - May 15th: 131 (as of resolution) / 163 (after later updates)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 16th - June 15th: 1 038 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Molly White ceases to regularly update the website, this will resolve NA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The year-long version:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MartinModrak/total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-0a397d2755e7", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7738696864589029, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | AIBear | 1719957530583 | 0 | 1 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6ipfz9m5up", "prob": 0.07314208639710607, "text": "Less than $100 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.109357900006753, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.76193794981477, "textFts": "'100':3 'less':1 'million':4", "contractId": "i8vpo6bvmh", "createdTime": 1719933545734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "g8co4wukg4", "prob": 0.4556409842962879, "text": "$100 million - $300 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 26.410587224038128, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.55300282664137, "textFts": "'100':1 '300':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "i8vpo6bvmh", "createdTime": 1719933545734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "ehsd5ob2u1", "prob": 0.2356084646533031, "text": "$300 million - $500 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.02680256984411, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.996231294526964, "textFts": "'300':1 '500':3 'million':2,4", "contractId": "i8vpo6bvmh", "createdTime": 1719933545734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "t5r585j5ao", "prob": 0.2356084646533031, "text": "More than $500 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 16.02680256984411, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.996231294526964, "textFts": "'500':3 'million':4", "contractId": "i8vpo6bvmh", "createdTime": 1719933545734, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 28.86751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719957527501 | 1719957416859 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
87ficpradx | one-what-day-of-the-week-will-trump | 204.0759461670107 | Which day of the week will Trump announce his VP/Vice Presidential running mate? | 1735707540000 | WBpEQ4AZK9STiQowNBMKEI8uaC33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719933620122 | Apple_ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On what day of the week will Trump announce his Vice Presidential running mate. Resolves when he makes an official announcement. The Republican National Convention is July 15-18th. 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1m5u4u3nia | taco-tuesday-0702-manifest-destiny | 2855.048141042213 | Taco Tuesday 07/02: Manifest Destiny | 1719989940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719935529043 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, come when you can, targeting dinner at 7pm. If you're looking for something to bring: dessert, drinks, sides to share, and new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Special this week: Manifest Destiny (Independence Day + Manifest Recap)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's a couple days before July 4th, so we'll celebrate with hamburgers instead of the usual tacos. 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x4n20b0tnx | what-does-manifold-think-democrats | 170.44848424334086 | What does Manifold think Democrats would do if they won the trifecta in 2024? | 1720583940000 | 04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719939553759 | Ij Kayone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"the trifecta\", I mean the Presidency and (caucus) majorities in the House and Senate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I supplied some examples for those who fear Democratic tyranny, but please feel encouraged to add any policies you think are likely.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When the question closes, I will create a poll with all the options (down to whatever limit there is on polls) from this question and give it another week to run, then resolve based on the results of the poll to the greatest precision available. 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0.49999999999999994 | nkihpxibhu | {"NO": 114.5260150371848, "YES": 87.31640576818427} | 0.5674030988144905 | will-the-mystery-of-the-capital-hil | 15 | Will the mystery of the Capital Hill Pipe Bomber from right before January 6th be "solved" before May 2025? | 1746169140000 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719940561773 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/500000-reward-remains-in-effect-for-information-about-capitol-hill-pipe-bomber", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/500000-reward-remains-in-effect-for-information-about-capitol-hill-pipe-bomber", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Someone left some pipe bombs out in front of the RNC and DNC for people to use before January 6th. Despite presumable high levels of scrutiny, they have not been caught. This (perhaps, among other explanations) indicates a surprisingly high level of sophistication which is noticeably out of place in the context of the other J6 rioters. Theories abound.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the FBI puts someone on trial for this that counts, even if there's a long drawn out trial where the accused might be innocent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the FBI (in an official capacity only) openly says that Russia or Iran or whatever did it then that counts, even though they might be wrong.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet. Mods decide in the event of a controversy.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.06740309881449047, "month": 0.06740309881449047} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | asmith | 1719941250978 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672111268287 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719941247806 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | okyhckj1iz | {"NO": 1066.7395466810626, "YES": 937.4359496760866} | 0.5322585515190666 | will-an-h5n1-mrna-vaccine-be-develo | 69 | Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025? | 1751428740000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570981443061092 | False | basic | public | 1719942169197 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moderna has announced government $176M in funding for an mRNA H5N1 Bird Flu vaccine.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will this vaccine be developed, produced and in \"late stage\" human testing by July 2021, as the story suggests?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/moderna-secures-176-million-u-s-government-h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-development", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/moderna-secures-176-million-u-s-government-h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-development", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiQmxjkpvyH.png?alt=media&token=da602408-6fb5-414b-80c1-64eb6f8f7a32", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES based on widespread media reports", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "* the vaccine has been produced", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* it is mRNA based", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* it is in \"late stage\" human trials -- meaning a substantial amount has been produced, and hundreds or thousands of people are in trials for efficacy, after initial \"early stage\" trials for safety are passed or waved", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Also if the vaccine is rushed and becomes available under emergency authorization -- or any authorization -- that will count as YES as well.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The \"late stage trials\" need only be officially announced, not completed. Though the vaccine has to exist, even if not yet manufactured at scale. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It need not be Moderna... but it must be an mRNA vaccine. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trials and vaccines in non-US countries count too, but will be viewed with more scrutiny.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.03225855151906665, "month": 0.03225855151906665} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.260453318937399, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719942187698 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719942184574 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4swq4rgio4 | which-will-be-the-majority-pronunci | 6035.685199264843 | Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030? | 1924988340000 | jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719942404893 | Lawdog | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This bet will resolve at the end of 2030 based on the majority pronunciation as I determine. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 115.20608196154318, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Lawdog | 1719997586261 | 0 | 17 | 17 | DISABLED | [{"id": "8kz5zf4lh1", "prob": 0.9225878944192628, "text": "Meme - rhymes with deem (most like gene) ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1150.7425741736001, "userId": "jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.5560096626345, "textFts": "'deem':4 'gene':7 'like':6 'meme':1 'rhyme':2", "contractId": "4swq4rgio4", "createdTime": 1719942404893, "probChanges": {"day": 0.4160388359710443, "week": 0.4160388359710443, "month": 0.4160388359710443}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.4160388359710443, "probChangeWeek": 0.4160388359710443, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0.4160388359710443}, {"id": "a6v7q7tltz", "prob": 0.1912463877976198, "text": "Meme - rhymes with gem", "index": 1, "poolNo": 162.09411556343073, "userId": "jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 685.4728237659621, "textFts": "'gem':4 'meme':1 'rhyme':2", "contractId": "4swq4rgio4", "createdTime": 1719942404893, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3087536122023802, "week": -0.3087536122023802, "month": -0.3087536122023802}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.3087536122023802, "probChangeWeek": -0.3087536122023802, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.3087536122023802}, {"id": "gbij8fr5gk", "prob": 0.2316086093967454, "text": "Meme - pronounced “me me” like Mimi Rodgers", "index": 2, "poolNo": 183.0057981722619, "userId": "jrhj523OSBTKT7tJpogi22MX6aZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 607.1453047980647, "textFts": "'like':5 'meme':1 'mimi':6 'pronounc':2 'rodger':7", "contractId": "4swq4rgio4", "createdTime": 1719942404893, "probChanges": {"day": -0.19982496084991025, "week": -0.19982496084991025, "month": -0.19982496084991025}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.19982496084991025, "probChangeWeek": -0.19982496084991025, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.19982496084991025}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697063937316 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719997583183 | 1719982182542 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | u0v0oxyn12 | {"NO": 1009.6634070698074, "YES": 990.4290806201922} | 0.5048083592553837 | will-karen-read-be-tried-again-afte | 10 | Will Karen Read be tried again after the jury deadlocked and a mistrial was declared on July 1, 2024? | 1753999140000 | IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570347697532608 | False | basic | public | 1719942642650 | Ken Michaels | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/07/01/us/karen-read-murder-trial-deliberations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/07/01/us/karen-read-murder-trial-deliberations", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The commonwealth intends to retry the case with a new jury following the mistrial, according to Norfolk District Attorney Michael Morrissey. Read could face ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "life in prison", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartIV/TitleI/Chapter265/Section2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_top"}}]}, {"text": " if convicted, according to Massachusetts law.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved YES if another trial begins. Karen Read accepting a plea deal will resolve NO. Please ask if you have any questions. I may bet on this question.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0048083592553836985, "month": 0.0048083592553836985} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33659293019262004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | kenmichaels | 1719942831858 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644799318130 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719942828611 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
09yu8wax0i | conditional-on-biden-not-being-the | 12388.217991797896 | Conditional on Biden NOT being the Democrat nominee, what will happen? [Add your own!] | 1731365940000 | 2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719942846956 | Mario F. 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0.14 | 5uvzuytwcn | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up | 0 | Will "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719947613863 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719947614136 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | kjdrsf9f9j | {"NO": 468.52128566581774, "YES": 2134.3747458109497} | 0.1799999999999999 | will-there-be-a-debate-between-pote | 2448.816476619988 | Will there be a debate between potential presidential candidates in the Democratic party between now and the convention? | 1724396340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.661817338884543 | False | basic | public | 1719948536777 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.). Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.32000000000000006, "month": -0.32000000000000006} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.08941905095286, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720019660329 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720019657177 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3d2d43cngw | which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p | 600 | Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next? | 1719957166910 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1719950434229 | Evan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "proof of the value of BB(5)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discuss.bbchallenge.org/t/july-2nd-2024-we-have-proved-bb-5-47-176-870/237", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", there are three candidates for the next Busy Beaver value (and corresponding machine) to find:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BB(6), aka BB(6,2) is the 6-state 2-symbol machine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BB(3,3) is the 3-state 3-symbol machine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BB(2,5) is the 2-state 5-symbol machine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any proof of the machine for more states or symbols would imply a proof for one or more of the above problems sizes. If multiple problem sizes are proven simultaneously, those options will resolve in equal proportion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question all that is required is a proof as to which machine achieves the BB(x,y) bound in question. An exact value for S(x,y) or Σ(x,y) is not required. An explicit machine is required, along with a proof that it halts and a proof that no other longer-running machine halts. See also ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "pxw4MXisOWY9fdXZQGm3", "label": "/EvanDaniel/will-the-bb6-machine-be-known-by-20"}}, {"text": " , which uses the same criteria.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A formal announcement by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "bbchallenge.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://bbchallenge.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " site, peer reviewed papers, or statements by prominent computational complexity experts will be required to resolve this question.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.330000661475202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719957166910 | 1000 | EvanDaniel | 1719957215394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | 3 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "tpawzhygwu", "prob": 0.19, "text": "BB(6)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 163.04091932183314, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 681.4921773826873, "textFts": "'6':2 'bb':1", "contractId": "3d2d43cngw", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1719950434229, "probChanges": {"day": -0.3069454945483601, "week": -0.3069454945483601, "month": -0.3069454945483601}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.3069454945483601, "probChangeWeek": -0.3069454945483601, "resolutionTime": 1719957162032, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.3069454945483601, "resolutionProbability": 0.19}, {"id": "813cknlpbz", "prob": 0.5, "text": "BB(3,3)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 333.3333333333333, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 333.3333333333333, "textFts": "'3':2,3 'bb':1", "contractId": "3d2d43cngw", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1719950434229, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719957164735, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0, "resolutionProbability": 0.5}, {"id": "f1w5lno7ig", "prob": 0.33, "text": "BB(2,5)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 231.89416078454101, "userId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 479.14579105916914, "textFts": "'2':2 '5':3 'bb':1", "contractId": "3d2d43cngw", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "createdTime": 1719950434229, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17386620093112232, "week": -0.17386620093112232, "month": -0.17386620093112232}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.17386620093112232, "probChangeWeek": -0.17386620093112232, "resolutionTime": 1719957166910, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.17386620093112232, "resolutionProbability": 0.33}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691250349596 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719956712164 | 1719957214163 | 0.33 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | vpgphmnjpr | {"NO": 65.87828274592209, "YES": 151.79509214846672} | 0.3026474081999468 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-pres-cl2wh5pgrd | 278.6302940206997 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race before Trump announces his VP? | 1722581940000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719950518595 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether Biden drops out or not is based on the resolution of this market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The time at which Trump announces his VP will be at the time when major media outlets report on it", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.2573525918000534, "week": -0.1973525918000532, "month": -0.1973525918000532} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.174866649196137, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 65 | 100 | AndrewG | 1720195515186 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 13 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1654655993992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720195511965 | 1719960847294 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 3ptmsefsjp | {"NO": 1096.7710485184068, "YES": 911.7673204000673} | 0.5460543176523825 | will-i-work-4h-or-more-on-graphshee | 100 | Will I work 4h or more on GraphSheets this week? | 1720472340000 | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658407367279 | False | basic | public | 1719950759515 | Anton Bogun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My project is called GraphSheets, which is like TreeSheets but also with graphs and infinite zoom. I am developing it in Qt.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For an idea of what I'm trying to make see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/robertskmiles/status/1805736282041237882", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/robertskmiles/status/1805736282041237882", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://strlen.com/treesheets/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://strlen.com/treesheets/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan for only 4 hours this week because of my full time summer job.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last week I managed to make a vscode-like notification widget and this week I'm planning to use my experience with that to make a command menu (like ctrl+shift+p in vscode) as well.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: if I do more than 4h this resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fcf27954-3ded-4b94-81b5-93c04f42bab4", "url": "https://x.com/robertskmiles/status/1805736282041237882", "image": null, "title": "x.com", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.04605431765238255, "month": 0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2289514815931253, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AntonBogun | 1720032680461 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700603913722 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720032676863 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999895 | a2kc4vqx7y | {"NO": 994.9874371066205, "YES": 10.050378152592202} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-evivcmbp3s | 1293.3208135116397 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 3 than it closed on July 2?" | 1720026268155 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1719950774900 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes early on July 3.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.402153331117415, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720026268155 | 100 | JimFix | 1720026268155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 9 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025114364 | 0.99 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Amazingly, no one seems to have given much thought to what it might do or where it will spend its money.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Why it matters: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Warren ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Buffett", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.axios.com/2024/05/04/warren-buffett-berkshire-meeting-ai", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "'s yet-to-be-named charitable trust will be 100% effective from day one at ensuring that his estate pays no tax on the billions he has made.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether and how it will have any philanthropic impact seems to be a secondary consideration.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The big picture: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The charitable trust that Buffett intends to create upon his death will contain all of the shares of Berkshire Hathaway he still owns — a sum currently worth more than $127 billion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By contrast, the largest current philanthropy in the world, the Gates Foundation, has total ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "assets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.gatesfoundation.org/documents/bmgf%202023%20trust%20audited%20financial%20statements.pdf", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of $76 billion.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where it stands: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "At one point, the Gates Foundation expected to receive the bulk of Buffett's estate, and even put together a plan nicknamed \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Project Lincoln", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-estate-planning-bill-and-melinda-gates-foundation-sends-charities-scrambling-11655811074?mod=article_inline", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\" to prepare for the massive bequest.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now, however, in an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "interview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/finance/warren-buffett-gives-us-a-preview-of-his-will-419ad46d", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " with the WSJ, Buffett has declared that \"the Gates Foundation has no money coming after my death.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instead, his fortune will go to a charitable trust to be administered by his three children. They can spend the money only by unanimous agreement.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Between the lines:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Buffett's three children don't make for natural charitable bedfellows.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Susie, 71, runs the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sherwood Foundation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sherwoodfoundation.org/", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which is focused on Nebraska.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Peter, 66, runs the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NoVo Foundation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://novofoundation.org/", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which \"supports initiatives that promote a holistic, interconnected and healing vision for humanity,\" especially in the small town of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kingston", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/buffett-kingston-sean-cooper", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", NY.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Howie, 69, runs the Howard G Buffett Foundation, whose ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "home page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thehowardgbuffettfoundation.org/", "class": "gtmContentClick", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " features a lot of armed soldiers. 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12ltnm3y57 | who-will-be-on-the-democratic-ticke | 105379.39169047147 | Who will be on the Democratic Ticket in 2024? | 1724363940000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719958426632 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone who is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President will resolve YES. Everyone else will resolve NO. 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h7hq7i0giu | which-segment-comes-first-twice-in | 6848.252712907319 | Which segment comes first twice in a row? | 1720566540000 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.295830929615325 | False | plus | public | 1719961691934 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can set limit orders if the roll of the day is done i will not roll the next before the next day starts ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ask every day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " for number 1-10 the segment that comes first 2 times in a row wins", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example/Rules", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if the bot rolls number 5 then it have to be number 4,5 or 6 at the next day if not it starts again from the beginning", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "04.07.2024: 5 (4-6 is needed to win if not the its a reset)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "05.07.2024: 9 (reset)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "06.07.2024: 8 (7-10 is needed to win if not the its a reset)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "07.07.2024: 1 (reset)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "08.07.2024: 3 (2-3 is needed to win if not the its a reset)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "09.07.2024: 2 (2-3 won Market resolves to 2-3)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "pls read the comments for more clarification", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first roll will take place on July 4th, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", 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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (is specifically charged with directly ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "executing Biden’s AI order", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/11/14/remarks-of-arati-prabhakar-at-carnegie-endowment-for-international-peace/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ai.mil/bio_Plumb.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 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0.5 | d3irofbaxe | {"NO": 31.625149318832115, "YES": 316.2040406255159} | 0.09092149317281875 | will-israel-be-destroyed-before-204 | 488.73369303287666 | Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei? | 2230171140000 | TuJuaddtD1ay1k12zqfMxTOrFvB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719969921345 | Noam Postavsky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2015 Khamenei predicted the \"Zionist regime\" will be gone in 25 years. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/641520641724780544", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/641520641724780544", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2017 Iran started a countdown clock for ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "August 5, 2040 if I have the numbers right: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In case of a one-state solution, I would consider it to resolve YES, if that state doesn't have special provisions for Jewish people being able to immigrate (in which case I think it would no longer be Zionist). Any two-state solution would be NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Iran regime moves the countdown clock further into the future, I would consider that to resolve NO (if I have to fix the date because I mis-added, or the 2017 article was wrong, that's fine though).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.03244255260038094, "week": -0.4090785068271813, "month": -0.4090785068271813} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.062266341607425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 100 | NoamPostavsky | 1720200839307 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfqy141OU48nZbbzAqbAwXwp8n92jUtgA4bR7Z12Q=s96-c | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1687012885009 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200836216 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2wdjvpx9fv | {"NO": 50.562759348399425, "YES": 197.77401646725102} | 0.20360560445519366 | will-twitter-x-remove-likes-or-retw | 100 | Will Twitter/X.com remove Likes OR Retweets counts on posts from public view by the end of September? | 1727841540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719970310552 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.29639439554480634, "month": -0.29639439554480634} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.2259835327490047, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719998773202 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719998763245 | 1719979224134 | 0 |
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