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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.21092995995864774 | uZvvcEVea76FLcKmuy86 | {"NO": 144.1468635380036, "YES": 15941.79505139659} | 0 | will-sbf-plead-guilty-before-july-1 | 52266.16041091787 | Will SBF plead guilty before July 1? | 1688187540000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7384897001328419 | True | play | NO | public | 1672180455490 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1689013514524 | 490 | Gigacasting | 1689013523965 | 0.2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 14 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1672180455731}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1672779715451... | ["ftx", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"] | 0.14498855265076574 | 0.5 | 1688185842331 | 1689013520788 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6508124505494739 | IZPdeeNSHpnLfGFI6Z0J | {"NO": 91.21828648862308, "YES": 315.68300624110304} | 0.3500383045301006 | will-george-santos-rny-begin-servin | 2284.5014368124807 | Will George Santos (R-NY) begin serving his term as US Representative on Jan 3? | 1672803152175 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9253570367816681 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1672180489245 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Santos officially begins serving in the US House of Representatives on Jan 3 (the start of the next term of Congress). Otherwise NO (for example, if he declines to take his seat, if the House refuses to seat him, etc).", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672940408160 | 270 | jack | 1710462492318 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🏛 118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg"}, {"name": "George Santos", "slug": "george-santos", "groupId": "zPal3ZyA96rIMxF7lqkK"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupI... | ["us-politics", "118th-congress", "george-santos", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1672800632786 | 1672895714513 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1588849520901554 | nuQt38uTDgq49gWC8wvI | {"NO": 172.14234384633144, "YES": 1087.592827721569} | 0 | will-chaya-raichik-libsoftiktok-be | 2355.066313394502 | Will Chaya Raichik ( "libsoftiktok" ) be identified in photos from January 6, inside the capitol building, before the two year anniversary of the violent insurrection attempt? | 1673013600000 | ees9Sl8QgyWqVm3sHtvv66Kzqfq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.987188521126633 | True | play | NO | public | 1672180830506 | Jake Wasserman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 27, 2:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Chaya Raichik ( \"libsoftiktok\" ) be identified in photos from January 6, inside the capitol building?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Chaya Raichik ( \"libsoft... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673150133856 | 250 | JakeWasserman | 1673067324256 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7AmVr7Nz1fManhY2zKDb10nCCe5J4-YUYerr7MYg=s96-c | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "ees9Sl8QgyWqVm3sHtvv66Kzqfq2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672180831316}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1673004731729 | 1673067322031 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30354506838671724 | wXTd4EtXoIaL1CdCt9b1 | {"NO": 97.30163232623562, "YES": 1838.2739354567298} | 0 | will-the-nano-currency-xno-reach-a | 3956.4466511831865 | Will the Nano Currency (XNO) reach a value of at least 20 USD in 2023? | 1704067140000 | 2g1cKGJmpuTKNtrna8dbW9vnlv23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4049307804756044 | True | play | NO | public | 1672181824076 | Manuel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For simplicity we use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nano/historical-data/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nano/historical-data/", "class": nul... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704155688654 | 350 | schnecki | 1704155688888 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7GlJ2nOhgsjxVGjBLxH9-jggdA4kzOodW768sinw=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "2g1cKGJmpuTKNtrna8dbW9vnlv23", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1672181824899}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128633567}] | ["crypto-speculation", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11776124828165023 | 0.5 | 1703116862993 | 1704155682108 | 0.02 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5732399445527732 | R1sS7vOIrax1RlMYsqKM | {"NO": 1845.2204885278436, "YES": 180.80733850346348} | 1 | will-the-destiny-and-sneako-bridge | 2031.911904496175 | Will the Destiny and Sneako Bridge burn in 2023? | 1682338056751 | NTgLB8ZUYZSrQXfFAOyxN2YQabi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1236462665920004 | True | play | YES | public | 1672182842848 | copo9007 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682338088081 | 510 | copo9007 | 1710218560459 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5A9cQe6hXBr5EdUBLAknclHLv2_MByNO6c3hS7ng=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1682326723514 | 1682290513661 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36679933095928363 | TBLfmGYQW47iBs3hw3B0 | {"NO": 108.79115422906239, "YES": 164.06244240488914} | 0.2775214422989789 | if-desantis-does-not-run-in-2024-wi | 115.93755759511085 | If DeSantis does not run in 2024, will he ever be President? | 1685020407181 | m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5289175048898267 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1672183495490 | Yaakov Saxon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he runs in 2024 this resolves N/A. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "r6wnf5GrjvG1Vy3tDnZc", "label": "/YaakovSaxon/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685020407181 | 130 | YaakovSaxon | 1684726684334 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlbusb0JiypZfcsCfiYsFipytmFCVVcuSLOn9BM=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672183496327}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "cre... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.5 | 1684726684156 | 0.28 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3216933515851791 | kaMUXQgr6ge1Quq3pz8O | {"NO": 1070.4540795474052, "YES": 804.3394493000029} | 0.3869422052610343 | when-will-a-us-court-first-rule-tha | 423.46905646884363 | When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person? | 2209006800000 | gjLRpvdvtNdv29o6Vu1q8DT1FUH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576406703531113 | False | play | public | 1672184203853 | Rational Ottawa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be any US court at any circuit or layer of appeals. Resolves immediately on the ruling, even if that ruling is later overturned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 27, 8:28pm: The intenti... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0950725169080708, "platformFee": 1.0950725169080708, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RationalOttawa | 1715542481999 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "gjLRpvdvtNdv29o6Vu1q8DT1FUH2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672184204283}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.09808353628578984 | 0.15584415584415584 | 1715542478722 | 1680962719479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7423044142908788 | pI0LIMvd2Vuh2yNMz2XN | {"NO": 3613.7142923084716, "YES": 138.1466725906812} | 1 | will-avraham-eisenberg-be-spend-mor | 43769.16953582995 | Will Avraham Eisenberg be spend more than 1 month in jail by the end of 2023? | 1676073708540 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 2.150005413060544 | True | play | YES | public | 1672186047896 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676073708540 | 330 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1676073702822 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672186048817}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1676073702601 | 1676072679204 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5496461066387597 | FkNW9pZvddcq5zID00lg | {"NO": 848.7083431129179, "YES": 77.96555905203871} | 1 | will-i-apply-for-any-role-at-the-fo | 1358.8082326619049 | Will I apply for any role at the Forecasting Research Institute? | 1674855401678 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.035259663748327 | True | play | YES | public | 1672186464638 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am already spending a fair amount of time writing forecasting questions here and I ain't gonna lie, I wouldn't mind getting paid to do it. The Forecasting Research Institute looks very interesting and is run by Phil Tetlock so I am definitely ser... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674855401678 | 230 | BTE | 1674855437684 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 10 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1674855377883 | 1674855435065 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07251089467578876 | QrdoD0oIl2LpZULHDuac | {"NO": 1167.3087641281031, "YES": 4656.137834300915} | 0 | will-destinys-main-youtube-channel | 11499.538291349574 | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel be banned before February 1st, 2023? | 1675231260000 | 5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1564601984722875 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672187305283 | Daliban Adjacent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny's main YouTube channel is not banned between now and February 1st, 2023 then this market wil resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny's main YouTube channel (", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675233582717 | 1390 | DalibanAdjacent | 1675230941568 | 0 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 1 | 50 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672187305731}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675230941363 | 1674877658390 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2221872922179263 | pwQ8ledUGYyaeVfaghFl | {"NO": 2189.905531943819, "YES": 1672.5593654905072} | 0.2722054518325659 | will-p-vs-np-be-resolved-before-man | 16546.966134188053 | Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars? | 7956912120000 | hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.566967703019039 | False | basic | public | 1672187407060 | Warty | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14254031147274412, "platformFee": 0.14254031147274412, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2095 | warty | 1715947337679 | 1.1 | 4 | 131 | 0 | 74 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672188220078}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672188193330}, {"name"... | ["technology-default", "world-default", "mathematics"] | 0.14708973285791632 | 0.5 | 1715947334375 | 1678836383685 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.10522929316955319 | FWQIX5rY4xVvth6aXJUp | {"NO": 381.4050404858866, "YES": 1456.2928369807778} | 0 | will-destiny-tweet-the-nword-before | 1775.8406845817399 | Will Destiny tweet the n-word before 2023? | 1672552740000 | 5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2869821885492003 | True | play | NO | public | 1672188122652 | Daliban Adjacent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Destiny tweets the n-word (\"hard\" or \"soft\") between right now and the end of December 31st, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This only applies to the D... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672559548660 | 470 | DalibanAdjacent | 1672524355977 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672188123256}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672524355812 | 1672300581036 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4820987547911363 | 56ZV13NoewNDnfiw5CFM | {"NO": 229.74422297520704, "YES": 578.2195217521429} | 0 | do-you-think-creating-trading-in-an | 493.5079326955878 | Do you think creating, trading in, and then immediately resolving your own market (and getting leaderboard credit for it) is kosher? | 1672850751054 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0575439999069656 | True | play | NO | public | 1672245951054 | Matt C. Wilson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022-12-29: Edited to add \"immediately\" to the title, where \"immediately\" expands to something like \"so quickly that no one else participated in the market, and plausibly would not have had enough time to notice the market and do so.\" See th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672855104807 | 370 | MattCWilson | 1672856246292 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1672252211660}, {"name": "Manifold community", "slug": "manifold-community", "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "groupId": "kxcJEPJzowmv9SFul2mF", "createdTime": 16722... | ["change-my-mind", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-community", "manifold-users", "selfresolving"] | 0.5 | 1672848419871 | 1672856241224 | 0.27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2504255737872888 | P9HauiYp1BS5orPEa0as | {"NO": 914.4478804496906, "YES": 1222.0328076945298} | 0.19999999999999996 | will-there-be-significant-rightwing | 1506.4109412915489 | Will there be significant Right-Wing riots between Presidential Election Day 2024 (11/05/24) and inauguration (01/20/25)? | 1737331140000 | 015fLpfjkUPluzmOi3Ba2rdKT933 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.601281120340948 | False | basic | public | 1672248067695 | SUPER 6-1 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Significant riots will be approximately 500 participants in more than 2 major US cities. \"Right-wing\" will be determined by prominent useage of right wing branding/iconography. A riot is a situation in which people in a crowd are engaging in viol... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.651515151515152, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | super61 | 1718109251506 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "015fLpfjkUPluzmOi3Ba2rdKT933", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1672248138918}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "015fLpfjkUPluzmOi3Ba2rdKT933", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1672248129327}, {"name": "Futu... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-gop-primaries", "2024-us-presidential-election", "future-us-presidents", "magaland", "culture-default"] | 0.1015035189715249 | 0.5 | 1718109248269 | 1701191986170 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3094447200767693 | 1p2PeaUIiyUF9TtcknTP | {"NO": 240.19874714817652, "YES": 2537.660676924472} | 0 | will-i-have-more-followers-than-lev | 4534.597866970795 | Will I have more followers than @levifinkelstein at the 10th of january? | 1673370000000 | JVuUPkMeNJXEgBbaW2vZm0u9qvI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1807687144282482 | True | play | NO | public | 1672248978793 | HMYS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I have mor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673550616117 | 570 | hmys | 1673461196152 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "JVuUPkMeNJXEgBbaW2vZm0u9qvI2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1672248979019}] | ["metaforecasting"] | 0.5 | 1673369925395 | 1673461192071 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.67571011134855 | serro4ZRlzI4PkkH3AL6 | {"NO": 4349.685357668287, "YES": 409.36739217400833} | 1 | will-i-have-100-followers-by-the-en | 12312.124091237025 | Will I have 100 followers by the end of 2022? | 1672428862197 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.7075926832421175 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672249545758 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at 90. Resolves YES as soon as it happens as verified with a screenshot of my profile taken by me or anyone else in the comments, otherwise it resolves NO January 1st. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672428862197 | 1030 | BTE | 1676117750977 | 0 | 2 | 52 | 0 | 44 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672249546086}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672428828239 | 1676117746966 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26562259980323727 | pl8phChTc9caOcqR5HYj | {"NO": 118.48344540709294, "YES": 352.5614135412898} | 0 | will-i-purchase-a-ipad-pro-for-doin | 342.13892015835614 | Will I purchase a iPad Pro for doing math this year? | 1672559940000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6437976948442 | True | play | NO | public | 1672249642758 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have an iPad Air but I think it'd be nice to have a bigger (12.9\") device. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Make arguments for/against in comments. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672561290789 | 170 | Alana | 1672550705881 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672249643467}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672550705727 | 1672315933094 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12383971625555078 | qRVXT9K40B9WrbnP3fMe | {"NO": 472.73916739676747, "YES": 408.1321999912285} | 0 | when-will-i-spend-30-mins-on-a-medi | 348.3619615657467 | When will I spend >=30 minutes, on a median workday, interacting with a GPT-like tool? | 1696563207022 | 5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7996016142717677 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672250000953 | Jacob Pfau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any GPT-series model would qualify. Any app using an LM-pretrained transformers for token generation would qualify, if most app interactions include queries to the model. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696563207022 | 470 | JacobPfau | 1696563561766 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672250001265}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1672250061811}, {"nam... | ["ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "ancient-markets"] | 0.08333333333333331 | 1695011303959 | 1696563560859 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10405194355517347 | RWMBNzLFI6cKrM7q1lPa | {"NO": 978.2752748252375, "YES": 1150.1868057853962} | 0.08989801878048687 | when-will-i-believe-an-ai-is-consci | 1892.7733290622764 | When will I believe an AI is conscious with >66% credence? | 1924211280000 | 5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.141969961657924 | False | play | public | 1672251098503 | Jacob Pfau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On my view of consciousness it is certainly possible that a silicon-based AI could be conscious. I also believe it likely (75% ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "EDIT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": 50% as of May 2023) that c... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JacobPfau | 1712172278044 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c | 1 | 15 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1672251381999}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672251099008}, {"name":... | ["ai", "philosophy", "effective-altruism"] | 0.09090909090909091 | 1712172274787 | 1674285306500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6356163664082229 | 7CmCEPDP1RZV4gPi1xVU | {"NO": 647.3356625421217, "YES": 689.7574364791545} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-able-to-answer-rules-q | 1806.5009973387898 | Will GPT-4 be able to answer rules questions about Magic: The Gathering well enough to be useful? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5789062693008288 | True | play | NO | public | 1672251152052 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It does not have to be as good as I described ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-ai-be-able-to-accurately-answe", "class": null, "target": "_bla... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.6207923958879841} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712298612821 | 690 | IsaacKing | 1704096000000 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 19 | 19 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1672251152899}, {"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1680740674429}, {"... | ["gaming", "magic-the-gathering", "ai", "gpt4-speculation", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.10874433068874831 | 0.5 | 1704021213553 | 1712298608756 | 0.62 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 |
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