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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.5209887636782272 | 2GoYn1MoAA54rPGv6zSw | {"NO": 510.0346514016392, "YES": 146.39233953985752} | 1 | this-market-resolves-yes-if-the-bot | 3361.743813414058 | This market resolves YES if the bots hold mostly NO | 1672685700000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4305435605271541 | True | play | YES | public | 1672599316232 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672686422712 | 310 | ZZZZZZ | 1672685502884 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1672599316545}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 16... | ["trading-bots", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1672685502532 | 1672657178795 | 0.79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3635754726512882 | rom3lHvtHyhJR7GssrOV | {"NO": 643.0402937098278, "YES": 27.650370013799904} | 1 | will-my-partner-consider-me-decentl | 1253.1557215789344 | Will my partner consider me decently dressed by the end of the year? | 1699835417600 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | cpmm-1 | 0.017051064436875565 | 2.8010745646933493 | True | play | YES | public | 1672600465335 | Kaivu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if my partner thinks I dress well relatively consistently by the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699835417600 | 210 | Kaivu | 1699835404641 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672600466202}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.09476345314481636 | 0.5 | 1699835404516 | 1699835392046 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3812322138541169 | JHs5RvGNvtG9DczkTVug | {"NO": 633.6635049985227, "YES": 752.5860611186134} | 0.33333333333333326 | how-many-albums-will-king-gizzard-a | 315.02922888262424 | How many albums will King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard release in 2023? | 1704020340000 | zVTdqviYOMPkf4ClAEoxtG0g8Wp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.42119376406723635 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672600891064 | Strigoides | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excluding live albums, demos, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704028790445 | 680 | Strigoides | 1704028790839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2r4gkCh37w9BClhPavFdy8V690sIhQ1y6wswU=s96-c | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "zVTdqviYOMPkf4ClAEoxtG0g8Wp1", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672600891308}, {"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1691181634154}, {"name": "King Gizzard & The L... | ["entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "king-gizzard-the-lizard-wizard", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.33333333333333326 | 1703211771778 | 1702077022133 | False | 0.33333333333333326 | zVTdqviYOMPkf4ClAEoxtG0g8Wp1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4228745048129175 | jXJSFXbbdFbwiuKPOceT | {"NO": 179.1507777455471, "YES": 11.41463685978944} | 1 | will-icp-crypto-coin-make-a-new-all | 862.8816657736585 | Will $ICP crypto coin make a new all time low price in 2023? | 1696748881226 | cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.996608015312932 | True | play | YES | public | 1672601039110 | Marcio Díaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current all time low is $3.40 according to ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/internet-computer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696748881226 | 90 | MarcioDiaz | 1696748207173 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8qKgUrkN6oCvkfCCXqfvEH2cDiFhofvodtqTjiww=s96-c | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1672601039504}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1696748206893 | 0.92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jLpyWWbzcruWPmE6NxPv | what-is-the-highest-value-bitcoin-w-605eea2669ad | 2030.5879338486802 | What is the highest value Bitcoin will reach during 2023?
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b6wZARZ862x0USD3jt3t | what-is-the-lowest-value-bitcoin-wi | 1161.2890894419925 | What is the lowest value Bitcoin will reach during 2023?
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0.22219430480038913 | EJysXU8a1JRmSE7CIc9W | {"NO": 413.35245488313774, "YES": 1.220608018750795} | 1 | will-icp-reach-a-price-of-10-or-mor | 1320.8173776333524 | Will $ICP reach a price of $10 or more in 2023? | 1703956967232 | cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.401299547551562 | True | play | YES | public | 1672601280124 | Marcio Díaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current price is $4 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/internet-computer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/internet-computer", "class": null, "target"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703956967232 | 130 | MarcioDiaz | 1703957537917 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8qKgUrkN6oCvkfCCXqfvEH2cDiFhofvodtqTjiww=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "userId": "cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1672601280864}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129520940}] | ["stocks", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703956019982 | 1703957536521 | 0.99 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2671499934379273 | GpTELUJ5sWZfYTBRUWAM | {"NO": 47.76033187361463, "YES": 34628.999936728615} | 0 | will-bitcoin-reach-12k-before-it-re | 42288.208998844544 | Will Bitcoin reach $12k before it reaches $30k? | 1681222044485 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9254959493562516 | True | play | NO | public | 1672601322640 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681222044485 | 530 | Gigacasting | 1681222035581 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1672601322846}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16732673491... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1681222035432 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6251090044396067 | 4QcSTotSWBKXgm6u9tID | {"NO": 213.8476319017104, "YES": 21.25351095046422} | 1 | will-more-than-25-people-ever-be-on | 244.4413368542215 | Will more than 25 people ever be on a voice call for the New Year's Resolutions event? | 1672605020762 | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.258703685897242 | True | play | YES | public | 1672604958607 | arae | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672605020762 | 110 | a | 1672605084803 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "j3ZtGYgwPT0vgjQew374", "createdTime": 1672604972132}] | ["new-years-market-resolutions-2022"] | 0.5 | 1672605012903 | 1672605082357 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11367743599762335 | pVfvMem4UThXxbR0drw7 | {"NO": 277.9899769642318, "YES": 10046.212149912386} | 0 | will-at-least-40-people-come-to-a-n | 12902.281428290114 | Will at least 40 people come to a New Year’s Resolutions live event on the Manifold Discord? | 1672682400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.355332974292649 | True | play | NO | public | 1672605159573 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a point in time on New Year's Day (in any time zone) when there are at least 40 people in a voice channel of the official Manifold Markets Discord server, and NO otherwise. If I'm not on at the time, I will require screensh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672682870313 | 450 | IsaacKing | 1672678317542 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "j3ZtGYgwPT0vgjQew374", "createdTime": 1672605159799}] | ["new-years-market-resolutions-2022"] | 0.5 | 1672678317393 | 1672661053246 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7269838534990186 | fUNhjgDLNENHaluF5iYX | {"NO": 940.2700523094234, "YES": 56.54164506617585} | 1 | will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in | 5358.716512858428 | Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Burkina Faso by the end of 2023? | 1696778608196 | dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.869003909365862 | True | play | YES | public | 1672605940815 | TexanElite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a coup or a coup attempt in Burkina Faso before December 31st, 2023 and resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696778608196 | 170 | TexanElite | 1696776571008 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672605941801}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737305268}] | ["politics-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1696776568225 | 1696753524433 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38623780435392496 | FWTFoJkS7WyY90Hzyllc | {"NO": 122.93082389291045, "YES": 198.925245269129} | 0.2799999999999998 | will-there-be-10-market-creators-in | 58.99269181380713 | Will there be 10+ market creators in the Gale Family Manifold group that are not related to the Gale Family by end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672605943042 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.33465267310945435, "platformFee": 0.33465267310945435, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | CarsonGale | 1715016354308 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1672605943237}] | ["gale-family"] | 0.5 | 1715016351127 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8015334866033049 | F3OfYVd1Ev8VzFPypkY0 | {"NO": 2425.731848303687, "YES": 386.1591290941159} | 1 | will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in-629ecf8fb276 | 4972.00625704859 | Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Brazil by the end of 2023? | 1673246089726 | dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2107294238361135 | True | play | YES | public | 1672606090907 | TexanElite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a coup or a coup attempt in Brazil before December 31st, 2023 and resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673246089726 | 810 | TexanElite | 1673305983051 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 35 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672606091792}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1673245106506 | 1673305978219 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3652320696733096 | vcn9J4PCOwmTsPHmihau | {"NO": 160.94584882713917, "YES": 4781.274182531097} | 0 | will-trevor-bauer-start-a-game-in-t | 9031.705988354377 | Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues this year? | 1702337925244 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.024005453052311665 | 1.3557266060900401 | True | play | NO | public | 1672606350952 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702337925244 | 850 | BTE | 1702306300705 | 1.1 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1672606351340}, {"name": "Trevor Bauer", "slug": "trevor-bauer", "groupId": "W9JrxSVsaPuYRSuObVW8", "createdTime": 1690593754614}] | ["sports-default", "trevor-bauer"] | 0.15016069770107912 | 0.5 | 1699345115162 | 1702306298778 | False | 0.02 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6204811874680759 | qu09LuY8T3bhi4Ff3Qs3 | {"NO": 15845.795364249576, "YES": 94.422993153481} | 1 | will-i-read-the-sequences-in-2023 | 17088.93388191773 | Will I read the Sequences in 2023? | 1703939285774 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5819106483054224 | True | play | YES | public | 1672606657769 | Milli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is about ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Sequences", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.readthesequences.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703939285774 | 670 | Milli | 1703939286920 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672606658091}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701137605088}, {"name": "2... | ["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "2023-resolutions"] | 0.5 | 1703939258471 | 1703297521809 | 1 | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18938776588018716 | sH2DXtdRbbtjpXKYTGfK | {"NO": 202.4887953479282, "YES": 1005.1427763128224} | 0 | will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in-f36f7e2ea13d | 812.115036048554 | Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Venezuela by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2362522865284262 | True | play | NO | public | 1672606738997 | TexanElite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a coup or a coup attempt in Venezuela before December 31st, 2023 and resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704312193847 | 290 | TexanElite | 1704312194079 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672606739873}, {"name": "Venezuela-Guyana Crisis", "slug": "venezuelaguyana-crisis", "groupId": "7a90910f-d6ae-49f4-af61-0f47a435372c", "createdTime": 1701290879871}, {"name": "... | ["politics-default", "venezuelaguyana-crisis", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704056255030 | 0.04 | dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.364921616989907 | Yk6RqgDf4NtJMLGP7Zlz | {"NO": 60.17622012112646, "YES": 1308.5690685636487} | 0 | will-i-have-more-than-500-subscribe | 1361.891689392591 | Will I have more than 500 subscribers to my Substack by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | sJdXFeT4VXRlFUrIwK0Um47fDGh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7987149466757733 | True | play | NO | public | 1672607286469 | Gretta Duleba | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "http://integrationbyparts.substack.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://integrationbyparts.substack.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First post was on... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704086480370 | 210 | GrettaDuleba | 1704086480739 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-9r4pqO609X44rdJy5EowuWb4jV2MoP_moKro6BA=s96-c | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "sJdXFeT4VXRlFUrIwK0Um47fDGh1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672609887265}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131650583}] | ["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704066486421 | 1677689804754 | 0.03 | sJdXFeT4VXRlFUrIwK0Um47fDGh1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42334420047405247 | v4D8scRf07YSNlsTXrOS | {"NO": 160.16302087920144, "YES": 3533.6725435569815} | 0 | will-destiny-launch-his-media-compa | 8789.38046047102 | Will Destiny launch his Media Company in 2023? | 1704085140000 | 1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2 | cpmm-1 | 1.4294680216711877e-15 | 1.194307580063907 | True | play | NO | public | 1672607714061 | Zion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Destiny announces the creation of the company/website and makes it available to the public.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny first talks about it here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://yo... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704152391478 | 650 | Zion | 1710218625273 | 0.4 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}] | ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11323898961292513 | 0.5 | 1702404225047 | 1676460590077 | 0.03 | 1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3710993676376536 | CahoHn8sHs5g1ctV4M6e | {"NO": 270.6300292868087, "YES": 638.7694816260296} | 0 | will-this-market-be-in-the-interval-5132f2778364 | 26436.65035714028 | Will this market be in the interval [22%, 69%] when it closes? | 1672732740000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0786159920049716 | True | play | NO | public | 1672608630882 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Click market details to see the exact close time.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672780311428 | 390 | JonathanRay | 1672780357445 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1672786458749}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1672608650808}... | ["fun", "gambling", "selfresolving", "whale-watching", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1672732739937 | 1672780354278 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8533773625864557 | 7psmDolVjRNbUESSC8UI | {"NO": 15958.383265953727, "YES": 827.698362989717} | 1 | will-xi-jinping-still-be-president-c6c7357d5207 | 18733.239187049996 | Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2024 | 1704153540000 | S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.785220699859182 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672608639782 | jon jordan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705165239141 | 1370 | jonjordanc3f0 | 1705165239360 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c | 58 | 0 | 3 | 7 | [{"name": "Xi Jinping", "slug": "xi-jinping", "groupId": "9a2af487-f1e7-4147-ad6e-0ee17a81e74f", "createdTime": 1698067368519}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1698067375530}, {"name": "Vladimir Putin", "slug": "vladimir-putin", "groupId": "GRfh1hXGBmhMWy8gwn7p"... | ["xi-jinping", "china", "vladimir-putin", "russia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704152471530 | 1705165230266 | 0.99 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6811868328111227 | h1nFAKrdN4iIKyd4C1GI | {"NO": 214.8914838594354, "YES": 94.04160413391882} | 1 | will-i-succeed-in-recruiting-any-of | 160.43739962829216 | Will I succeed in recruiting any of my close friend to Manifold | 1673971666923 | EyAyloXnq8WYfLUBLlkdlyOSDkD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.832899529393184 | True | play | YES | public | 1672608694073 | Jonas Kamper | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll be posting my referal link for a couple of my close friends (8), in our joint facebook group. Posting it as a referal link might turn them off, let's see. We'll give them a month, until I close this. Just one of them joining will resolve \"YES... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673971666923 | 130 | JonasKamper | 1673971734920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3dE1TOR5EXE5vPxyAXnG5pDch9NHPidbMLwas9e8o=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "EyAyloXnq8WYfLUBLlkdlyOSDkD3", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672608694965}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1673959684989 | 1673971730573 | 0.83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hHujPCHz6yONY9fG1XZy | who-will-be-uk-prime-minister-after | 1051.8795877406958 | Who will be UK Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak's successor? | 2478544920000 | Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672609161020 | WXTJ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this when it happens, I have chosen a close date arbitrarily far enough in the future. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.318834978791146, "platformFee": 0.29252417134814984, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1929.999999999997 | WXTJ | 1719978436608 | 1.1 | 19 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "45613307619d", "prob": 0.10077207561569972, "text": "Angela Rayner", "index": 1, "poolNo": 8.337848024030357, "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.4018194194312, "textFts": "'angela':1 'rayner':2", "contractId": "hHujPCHz6yONY9fG1XZy", "createdTime": 1672609370100, "probCha... | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672609174494}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1672609161269}, {"name"... | ["uk-politics", "politics-default", "uk"] | 0.116017937653951 | 1719978432711 | 1673448423861 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ov9oCNBieY0hkSomusrk | who-will-be-us-president-after-joe | 448.2341371028623 | Who will be US President after Joe Biden's successor? | 2524651920000 | Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672609242999 | WXTJ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closing date is arbitrarily far in the future, I will resolve this when it happens. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5336870371738754, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1499.9999999999986 | WXTJ | 1717764829001 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a1054ffd86e8", "prob": 0.4440706739563724, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.653815595538948, "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.8488085862486, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ov9oCNBieY0hkSomusrk", "createdTime": 1672609243589, "probChanges": {"day": -3.330669073875... | 12 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG"}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "future-us-presidents", "united-states"] | 1717764825075 | 1673035025971 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33491343219043795 | 77YmzmzGXMoO59WAZ72J | {"NO": 390.24271849793575, "YES": 399.0199741083537} | 0 | will-this-market-be-above-69-when-i | 2502.219478014818 | Will this market be above 69% when it closes? | 1673251140000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0174151357619574 | True | play | NO | public | 1672609749684 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673285970417 | 410 | JonathanRay | 1673244442350 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672609749927}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1673244442199 | 1672728299443 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tQp6JARy5BEAU7cyjkvS | who-will-be-the-49th-us-president | 575.1061304914375 | Who will be the 49th US President? | 2855905920000 | Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672610422710 | WXTJ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22884026954202605, "platformFee": 0.22884026954202605, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1060.0000000000005 | WXTJ | 1716181953945 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d442140c08eb", "prob": 0.07574052721476339, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0271085696122482, "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.533776301176498, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tQp6JARy5BEAU7cyjkvS", "createdTime": 1672610423121, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 13 | [{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1672610430252}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672610... | ["us-politics", "future-us-presidents", "politics-default", "donald-trump"] | 1716181950264 | 1672703528412 | False | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9018056415669656 | urUsNk7bqd5F2sPkQEpN | {"NO": 223.61288087359156, "YES": 238.8215868309991} | 1 | ive-offered-to-send-m30-to-anyone-w | 949.4601530766297 | I've offered to send M$30 to anyone who joins the Manifold discord voice channel to get us up to 40 people. Will I do so? | 1672682569385 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9717633705553634 | True | play | YES | public | 1672610820619 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will send a manalink for M$30 to anyone who joins the lounge voice channel if it gets us up to 40 people. (And stays in until we have 40.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You don't have to p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672682569385 | 270 | IsaacKing | 1672684512429 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672610821534}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672672961712 | 1672684514880 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13560728487435017 | H9PJmPZA6LIQPbWucY45 | {"NO": 213.6057605697787, "YES": 22434.29767170571} | 0 | will-manifold-implement-some-kind-o | 23135.836146691105 | Will Manifold implement some kind of "smart-sell" feature by end of April? | 1682924340000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6185666536808263 | True | play | NO | public | 1672611045787 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's pretty common that I want to bet on a market but don't have enough uninvested money, so I have to sell something. It's annoying to constantly have to sort through my positions for what to sell, so it'd be nice if Manifold had some sort of smar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682949490434 | 430 | Conflux | 1682915149607 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672611046247}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "created... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1682915149453 | 1674589596345 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.033280618924150886 | JJhOlaRCBnyehcszL2DF | {"NO": 925.4862245169234, "YES": 2606.4348789627834} | 0.012076397792847327 | will-destiny-be-the-2024-democratic | 10967.630354006007 | Will Destiny be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 1720954800000 | jUZWdjFks1SNygCHrjgGtOMCghI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1672611801915 | NewPlace2Frown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves July 14, 2024 - after democratic primaries.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "The embodiment of destiny leads the nation of America to a new golden age", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-mar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.002928435988925235} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7725764439881249, "platformFee": 1.0279761806122119, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NewPlace2Frown | 1718985858734 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "jUZWdjFks1SNygCHrjgGtOMCghI3", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672611802393}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.12560661916739832 | 0.5 | 1718985855665 | 1672611932996 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
E1NJqQ81XNR6eZprLNDh | what-two-teams-will-make-it-to-the | 4340.960855244784 | What two teams will make it to the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League finals? | 1684357625559 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.635709753137856 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1672611972795 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684357625559 | 2160 | AlexLiesman | 1684357346814 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "28c052adf37f", "prob": 0.0017317225379975775, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004582143254622706, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.6414209860464037, "textFts": "", "contractId": "E1NJqQ81XNR6eZprLNDh", "createdTime": 1672611973197, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week... | 9 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1672611973066}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816361}, {"name": "UEFA Champions League",... | ["soccer", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league"] | 1684357346648 | 1684357321864 | {"91172e4c80e5": 49.64043215774637, "e01b57fbe2e3": 50.359567842253625} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7852400783050791 | TBq3luZkTOcS5n9eHnzV | {"NO": 560.4545454545456, "YES": 81.21187972941767} | 1 | do-i-host-12-meetup-events-for-frie | 420 | Do I host 12 meetup events for friend & interest groups in 2023? | 1704095940000 | jBr3Rs1Hz4TBfQBzwgTyrL4qqr52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.946304339003034 | True | play | YES | public | 1672615880713 | mcint | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I often say I want to host events for friend- and interest groups, I want to host one each month. This market will resolve YES if I host 12 events in the year. For many of the events, I will run markets for event attendance or outcomes.", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704149516272 | 150 | mcint | 1704149517456 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "jBr3Rs1Hz4TBfQBzwgTyrL4qqr52", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672615881706}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807373063... | ["personal-goals", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1702794639417 | 1702619428479 | 0.96 | jBr3Rs1Hz4TBfQBzwgTyrL4qqr52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08856116277338683 | 8iLSMJ41c4MKjwUzY5uJ | {"NO": 916.547012531003, "YES": 1552.4836660209378} | 0.05425237389628279 | will-binance-join-the-sp-500 | 638.1503229530952 | Will Binance join the S&P 500? | 2524629540000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.352633010070466 | False | basic | public | 1672615959791 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1709576176485 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Markets", "slug": "markets", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "M3DAkm4fP0XVdJBAiRgr", "createdTime": 1672615959964}, {"name": "Binance", "slug": "binance", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "DLuKOeXGWESoStfOez08", "createdTime": 1686193050507}] | ["markets", "binance"] | 0.5 | 1709576176336 | 1679953416166 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20817594048972354 | ZFVXmdZUeckneT6RKtO1 | {"NO": 957.0374289949506, "YES": 1104.150465800974} | 0.1855868784492087 | will-the-chinese-aircraft-carrier-l | 452.16199570177605 | Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033 | 1988110800000 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.678924997024774 | False | basic | public | 1672616110580 | Odoacre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if the Liaoning sinks or is otherwise crippled/rendered permanently inoperable before 2033", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Odoacre | 1695074824341 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | 1 | 19 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672616111454}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1695074824214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4603434610601479 | MsHttfTuPeUUdFpaOkRR | {"NO": 36.6858510666377, "YES": 343.46153846153845} | 0 | will-lorenpmc-move-to-sf-in-2023 | 260 | Will @lorenpmc move to SF in 2023 | 1704095940000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.330717499173155 | True | play | NO | public | 1672616246866 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/lorenpmc", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705003251832 | 110 | VivaLaPanda | 1705003252158 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672616247157}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807373068... | ["personal-goals", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1702629599197 | 1704889228625 | 0.08 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27893466107566983 | f738FR60ajkxmFERpf3U | {"NO": 218.48085707376714, "YES": 232.38724219716067} | 0.26669443511088675 | will-what-we-owe-the-future-sell-mo | 438.8479678878221 | Will What We Owe The Future sell more than 100,000 copies by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | V75x7sflYwSFJJXCq2S1HKzONJo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8474260772813824 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1672618994750 | oh no | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be resolved using official figures (e.g. Nielsen). Resolves N/A if official figures unavailable. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705287079242 | 230 | hectohenry | 1705287079492 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "V75x7sflYwSFJJXCq2S1HKzONJo2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1672618995051}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701141102432}] | ["effective-altruism", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09791722991230901 | 0.5 | 1698934621345 | 1705287075104 | 0.27 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2982188030982944 | L5rX1K01mk07Ci6ht2JS | {"NO": 87.57865435313055, "YES": 1648.0158256192854} | 0 | will-sam-bankmanfried-post-on-twitt | 1841.7543740697852 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried post on twitter at least once every month in 2023? | 1677835473275 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.637976501036717 | True | play | NO | public | 1672619065885 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes tweets and replies with text on the @SBF_FTX account or other accounts widely and clearly him. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677835473275 | 230 | Ernie | 1677834479043 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672619066826}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1677834477915 | 1677830161905 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07957733684904149 | DPSqhbtgeZGPEzt6KBnm | {"NO": 899.599570205093, "YES": 2022.3808650620645} | 0.03703389492021437 | best-actress-oscar-is-removed-renam | 1287.6091785766316 | Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by June 2025 | 1748804400000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.487291365146142 | False | basic | public | 1672619369633 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.004239996597075656} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5456559026223333, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1718893017391 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672619369893}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1718893014325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bBVnnmriaVoohTpqNqUp | which-rocket-will-go-orbital-first | 11954.152003185896 | Which rocket will go orbital first | 1704708616056 | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.61949675814365 | True | play | 1bcb3bf5ffee | public | 1672619420083 | NGK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this market to be resolved, the rocket in question has to have its upper stage complete an entire orbit around Earth successfully.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The only criteria is if i... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704708616056 | 720 | NGK | 1720053161621 | 0.2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "1bcb3bf5ffee", "prob": 0.9972191508868723, "text": "Vulcan", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.021891467004245, "userId": "HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.11160519860928504, "textFts": "'vulcan':1", "contractId": "bBVnnmriaVoohTpqNqUp", "resolverId": "HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBh... | 8 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1672619436628}, {"name": "ULA", "slug": "ula", "userId": "HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2", "groupId": "IyWH9WIGufTEYdxeU8Vw", "createdTime": 1672619420301}, {"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", ... | ["ula", "space", "spacex"] | 0.10658827497035867 | 1704708591876 | 1698188495154 | {"1bcb3bf5ffee": 100} | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6856328339381882 | KaoL3lNiltjRFHUy31xa | {"NO": 222.85871800034988, "YES": 93.87151012474473} | 0.8381316341439313 | the-top-trader-by-creator-count-has | 267.6800055288441 | The top trader by creator count, weekly, from https://manifold.markets/leaderboards has more than 5000 traders by June 2024 | 1718478000000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672619594831 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 2, 4:23pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The top trader by creator count has more than 5000 traders by June 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → The top trader by creator count, weekly, from https://manifold.marke... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.13373903973616552} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7172358765355593, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 130 | Ernie | 1718462153263 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672619595309}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1718462150216 | 1714593636922 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7159945362514758 | S0CanijYUOEkxI98kuq7 | {"NO": 12316.112428887725, "YES": 282.6990962402925} | 1 | will-destiny-appear-on-the-scuffed | 19173.031031543625 | Will Destiny appear on the Scuffed Podcast in 2023? | 1702651141624 | 5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0777032351808495 | True | play | YES | public | 1672620097871 | Daliban Adjacent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There were some rumblings of Train doing a special YouTube episode of Scuffed so that Destiny could be a guest. This never came to fruition.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2023, do you thi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702651141624 | 930 | DalibanAdjacent | 1702651137340 | 0 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672620098320}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.11063828049459803 | 0.5 | 1702648887857 | 1702651136585 | 0.99 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6770982670098612 | TmsUadmjSzUGD8b3JZBZ | {"NO": 1893.5972137214983, "YES": 24.69514429622086} | 1 | will-spy-rise-10-or-fall-10-first | 2258.593868564378 | Will SPY rise to 392.5 or fall to 372.5 first? | 1673296724601 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.09073507816633 | True | play | YES | public | 1672620103794 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SPY is around 382.5 as of the close on 1/1. This contract stays open as long as SPY remains in the range (372.5, 392.5) When SPY exits the range, resolves YES if SPY is >=392.5, NO if SPY is <=372.5. The data source will be yahoo finance 30min ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673296724601 | 130 | JonathanRay | 1673296952588 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1672620103995}] | ["stocks"] | 0.5 | 1673296715828 | 1673296950830 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4770944503121362 | wXGYk333wYbh296U5yei | {"NO": 427.1244323450263, "YES": 16.237691522093446} | 1 | will-hololive-announce-a-new-genera | 627.613326596536 | Will Hololive announce a new generation of vtubers before March 1, 2023? | 1672887725205 | YNgEHnGCOmWKtXYutzMfxopKFZf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.2050851082501355 | True | play | YES | public | 1672620331535 | Arctanno | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, an announcement of any new talents, e.g. VSingers like IRyS would suffice for YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672887725205 | 130 | Arctanno | 1672887768429 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "YNgEHnGCOmWKtXYutzMfxopKFZf1", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672620332472}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1672887709152 | 1672887767234 | 0.76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7093099410219385 | 0GcJWlI4OqunBwhEk6Mw | {"NO": 1400.67221938492, "YES": 61.94358938808625} | 1 | will-gpt4-score-1200-sat | 1354.1079780532286 | Will GPT-4 score 1200+ SAT? | 1678814851431 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.403231442918438 | True | play | YES | public | 1672620491966 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial release ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678814851431 | 210 | Gigacasting | 1678814847524 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672620492345}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1678814847400 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5163082293616805 | zNNBbHApPnN1ZvzzwKBt | {"NO": 1898.0975922232963, "YES": 62.662599534289896} | 1 | will-gpt4-score-1400-sat | 2997.5358899102284 | Will GPT-4 score 1400+ SAT? | 1678814731422 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0715946009799477 | True | play | YES | public | 1672620511585 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial release ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678814731422 | 430 | Gigacasting | 1678814307747 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672620511968}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1678814307645 | 1678813807006 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37690880789835984 | Q8y3xflQ32CUf1NBtDob | {"NO": 97.26091044464809, "YES": 1025.527710851212} | 0 | will-any-speech-model-exceed-chatgp | 2777.800690189485 | Will any speech model exceed chatGPT interest? (2023) | 1704088740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.025458037847277 | True | play | NO | public | 1672620569528 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fno4r3mQAPy.jpeg?alt=media&token=575786dd-bebe-4c7f-a245-dc8c3beb404e", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705072217132 | 250 | Gigacasting | 1705072217470 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 7 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672620569942}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132446479}] | ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1701229743617 | 0.05 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4547301285438506 | 1aYyEuFca7HGxcARLGDO | {"NO": 45.62697326562338, "YES": 2194.2124415336666} | 0 | will-the-crazy-australian-lady-quot | 4751.996542085397 | Will the crazy Australian lady be quoted in mrgirl's article? | 1704088740000 | kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52 | cpmm-1 | 4.878818632061897e-16 | 2.633904392658067 | True | play | NO | public | 1672622119352 | GAZE WITHIN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 1, 7:16pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the crazy Australian lady quoted in mrgirl's article?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will the crazy Australian lady be quoted in mrgirl's article?", "type": "text"}]}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704339923295 | 310 | destiny | 1704339923612 | 0.2 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672622120041}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131922173}] | ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11712713420546406 | 0.5 | 1700589380988 | 1704339918811 | 0.02 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21058966206752794 | 3fzB2tgF26e34T7Oi5nZ | {"NO": 148.97980470456702, "YES": 321.2113587932562} | 0.11010555717503989 | ai-will-any-model-exceed-world-cup-ced4f2b0fd92 | 236.26565916124602 | AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2025) | 1735711140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672622130049 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fk61Pm6g2ho.jpeg?alt=media&token=b27ef1d1-f612-452f-bfac-8cef057cb827", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 190 | Gigacasting | 1692028213126 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672622130361}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1692028212943 | 1672637369102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15066991835581403 | uuBZsx1fHyNOAP8D0Ey1 | {"NO": 242.93902680146948, "YES": 2833.661134550861} | 0 | ai-will-any-model-exceed-world-cup-29f3a1096f04 | 4390.831963807818 | AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (2023) | 1704088740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 1.1035440081981305 | 2.328896472785517 | True | play | NO | public | 1672622166364 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fk61Pm6g2ho.jpeg?alt=media&token=b27ef1d1-f612-452f-bfac-8cef057cb827", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704150592661 | 370 | Gigacasting | 1704150592851 | 3.3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672622166867}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131024543}] | ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.21877762104018955 | 0.5 | 1703003291526 | 1672622178052 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7909339864902114 | VrzUR00n2W9UMLuz8qNb | {"NO": 3819.1561025252518, "YES": 149.16575930462093} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-on-jan-3rd-202 | 3930.125225536828 | Will Destiny go live on Jan 3rd, 2023? | 1672785246835 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.486737330142702 | True | play | YES | public | 1672622260213 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672785246835 | 330 | AlexLiesman | 1672779134654 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672622260777}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672779134506 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09910417422192579 | hgGK2H7RKOtjJdqw07CF | {"NO": 815.7328439045973, "YES": 3075.402355387771} | 0 | will-manifold-limit-markets-to-199 | 43188.31309606921 | Will Manifold limit markets to 1-99% in 2023? | 1704024300000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.202349053416122 | True | play | NO | public | 1672622264562 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To limit markets to 1-99%, the AMM would only allow bets up to these percents. Additional NO bets at 1% would be canceled or converted into a NO limit order at 1%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704099633205 | 965 | MartinRandall | 1712953376694 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 24 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1672622264838}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031299... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.12063015771220198 | 0.5 | 1704024281880 | 1712953376068 | 0.03 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4342360670820277 | pRSB7kMGOEn5KgwdZjxJ | {"NO": 143.99688332438495, "YES": 143.7868186022495} | 1 | will-chatgpt-exceed-chatgpt-peak-in | 135.01105099158693 | Will ChatGPT exceed ChatGPT peak interest? (2023) | 1677814407870 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.147648291408821 | True | play | YES | public | 1672622606677 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fno4r3mQAPy.jpeg?alt=media&token=575786dd-bebe-4c7f-a245-dc8c3beb404e", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677814407870 | 150 | Gigacasting | 1677814399013 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672622607054}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1677807230936 | 1677814394033 | 0.43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5719077412366805 | tksUr8lV07pHEsgx6EMe | {"NO": 1117.031481158254, "YES": 203.49445864510506} | 1 | january-2023-will-russia-lose-more-705379454b47 | 1660.595387734116 | January 2023: Will Russia lose more than 125,000 troops? | 1674917882519 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0836539032208041 | True | play | YES | public | 1672622611030 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if in January 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 125,000 troops.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/manti... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674917882519 | 430 | AlexLiesman | 1674917870614 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1672622621603}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1672622611335}, {"name"... | ["tomeks-specials", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1674917870498 | 1673023375127 | False | 0.88 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5163745185774016 | q80wfOt3dT3klYcTMWkr | {"NO": 327.90273268428047, "YES": 410.9950508616842} | 1 | when-i-flip-a-coin-in-one-week-will | 720.5909697392499 | When I flip a coin in one week, will it land on heads or tails? (I'm putting 100 on HEADS.) | 1673237671620 | 5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9413585698189053 | True | play | YES | public | 1672622677334 | Daliban Adjacent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to flip a coin one week from now. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO = Tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673237955878 | 370 | DalibanAdjacent | 1673237949582 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672622768936}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672622760230}, {"name": "Gambling"... | ["gambling", "fun", "personal-goals", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1673212979447 | 1673237946781 | 0.46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3218304002797925 | f96Y91sN0blSoxjZroex | {"NO": 747.4666547663564, "YES": 5040.920216035804} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-the-most-searched-mode | 23899.42463009389 | Will GPT-4 be the most searched model of 2023? | 1704088740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.41911435410228126 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672622714694 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fno4r3mQAPy.jpeg?alt=media&token=575786dd-bebe-4c7f-a245-dc8c3beb404e", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704145408932 | 1465 | Gigacasting | 1704145409730 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 40 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672622715100}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703119476378}] | ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703531457572 | 1703355924943 | 0.07 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7263768723144566 | epWDTFkcWeS8Pai42ndY | {"NO": 144.7696110131954, "YES": 166.52172403310732} | 1 | i-will-refrain-from-doing-anything-2f3e039654df | 282.16278086455077 | I will refrain from doing anything Manifold-related from Mon-Sun between 00:00 and 17:00 CET | 1673222340000 | aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.441901621307553 | True | play | YES | public | 1672622944211 | Tassilo Neubauer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I do any of the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet, comment, create markets, resolve markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673426983250 | 170 | Tassilo | 1673426968931 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwzeRtF3jljd4fEx4a2RaFcXKNYfaw6x45evm33=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672622945143}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672990097352 | 1673426965063 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19849991155400418 | 0pP5UhPuhJ3XzoJC3Ocw | {"NO": 372.63354677390345, "YES": 1693.1711341388127} | 0 | convince-me-will-i-sign-up-for-cryo | 2065.561646723133 | [Convince Me] Will I sign up for cryonics with Alcor by the end of 2023? | 1704072660000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2692006891227559 | True | play | NO | public | 1672623072060 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like the idea of living", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "conte... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704105153105 | 530 | Alana | 1704105162264 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 17 | [{"name": "Change My Mind", "slug": "change-my-mind", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "kzzraVgQ4jzw7XmLUZDv", "createdTime": 1673073388015}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672623072968... | ["personal-goals", "change-my-mind", "transhumanism", "cryonics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704072022927 | 1704105161671 | 0.05 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2809782122731158 | R9jPgallXiZOpws2bIOT | {"NO": 1022.0780272606182, "YES": 7486.904433639872} | 0 | will-destiny-finish-the-factorio-sp-befab0fec85e | 71865.88334181809 | Will Destiny finish the Factorio Space Exploration Modpack by Febuary 1st, 2023? | 1675238817409 | ZCmSgiruN9NPBOJobqhY6JlQXps1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.350665815221364 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672623271286 | Sognik | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Factorio", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FGrI_9TOVkt.png?alt=media&token=8a3eee7f-b02d-4dbc-ab7c-75f50760349d", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675238817409 | 1970 | Sognik | 1675236106586 | 0 | 6 | 116 | 0 | 93 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "ZCmSgiruN9NPBOJobqhY6JlQXps1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672623271878}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675236106408 | 1675227709451 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5739691341123418 | GpgMWu0X4IupJQtgm8uH | {"NO": 766.6238247811509, "YES": 33.733480148972674} | 1 | sus | 4282.642731981245 | sus | 1677695782524 | KGDJ2IcFxVf7J0TdiGEXCtLi50z2 | cpmm-1 | 3.44661621561323 | True | play | YES | public | 1672627018028 | dggL | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this will resolve yes if the impoper is sussy wudssy and amnogus. This is probably the cringiest thing ive ever written", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677695782524 | 130 | cutie | 1677695780261 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCutiePatootie%2FjaNzHeZbKN.jfif?alt=media&token=b07ecd31-246e-4ad5-9a09-f9f89dbef721 | 6 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "SUS", "slug": "sus", "userId": "KGDJ2IcFxVf7J0TdiGEXCtLi50z2", "groupId": "25kN1ovEakK32uEPyXsW", "createdTime": 1672782088382}, {"name": "Amongus", "slug": "amongus", "userId": "KGDJ2IcFxVf7J0TdiGEXCtLi50z2", "groupId": "xBXFrhAxxFtDMGoBUXod", "createdTime": 1672782091915}] | ["sus", "amongus"] | 0.5 | 1677695780038 | 1672782176082 | False | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8908923516255967 | 3S1Jqw6GNNHDs0MlAlWo | {"NO": 10482.51039866441, "YES": 682.6807063377775} | 1 | will-destiny-have-601k-by-subs-jan | 17362.061898734857 | Will Destiny have 601k by subs Jan 7th? | 1672795855070 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2635260619557132 | True | play | YES | public | 1672627796435 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny has 601k subscribers by Jan 7th at 11:59pm cst", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672795855070 | 970 | Wobbles | 1672795845864 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 45 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672627796851}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672795845662 | 1672795829223 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.99 | SbaSx5GaJ721zqtGigo4 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0 | resolves-to-no | 0 | Resolves to NO | 1672629439963 | w07LrYnLg8XDHySwrKxmAYAnLJH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1672629437557 | Smart Bot? | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672629439963 | 50 | SmartBot | 1672629437557 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp48psw7VYVrF_xW3XXAo_VDKcjcMvdJ6j07M2fX=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | [] | [] | 0.99 |
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