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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.7202078405993548 | VfqkRlFfC2xw5efs1vzR | {"NO": 1018.7194887009549, "YES": 724.201921023365} | 1 | will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad-e4ee552c2911 | 1096.4809577610667 | Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow in 2023? | 1675324740000 | 2l6ncOa1VBgr06UKlYPx7OOHHTF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5923062901908408 | True | play | YES | public | 1672500866656 | Ryan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading will halt on February 1st, and the results will be announced the following day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historic records up to 2017 are provided here: ", "type": "text"}, {"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675342415760 | 810 | TaiRuiYang | 1675362242882 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 40 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "2l6ncOa1VBgr06UKlYPx7OOHHTF3", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1672500867132}, {"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1675278794645}] | ["science-default", "weather"] | 0.5 | 1675321338715 | 1675362240844 | 0.78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18358913603390564 | dLXbOZUI6FiKpCxYVDww | {"NO": 157.71687257702206, "YES": 829.2691517064627} | 0 | will-the-magic-the-gathering-reserv-a9acf9545da0 | 1518.5029914341937 | Will the Magic: The Gathering Reserved List be altered in 2023? | 1704095940000 | 2l6ncOa1VBgr06UKlYPx7OOHHTF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8142339132640224 | True | play | NO | public | 1672501160435 | Ryan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes new cards being added to the Reserved List, cards being removed from the Reserved List, or some other specific policy regarding it being changed. The 30th Anniversary Edition would not count because it does not specifically change the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704135212189 | 230 | TaiRuiYang | 1704135212455 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "2l6ncOa1VBgr06UKlYPx7OOHHTF3", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1672501160647}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128926646}] | ["gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1701740396803 | 1672530931504 | 0.04 | 2l6ncOa1VBgr06UKlYPx7OOHHTF3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7983732636561699 | iVUMG67SDmmUMOgA1Skz | {"NO": 706.0974464363198, "YES": 160.2020904784302} | 1 | did-jesus-walk-on-water | 2126.396253809929 | Did Jesus walk on water? | 1675141140000 | 8KQH7gQjzNe2XaHSa0b4s5RSCaC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.571448207193725 | True | play | YES | public | 1672502059371 | Jesus Christ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if there's convincing evidence from the Bible that Jesus (that's me!) walked on water. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to No otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681065630609 | 230 | Jesus | 1714838747329 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 13 | [{"name": "Jesus Christ", "slug": "jesus-christ", "userId": "8KQH7gQjzNe2XaHSa0b4s5RSCaC3", "groupId": "vRL60c6FSAzderqRFt5D", "createdTime": 1672502090673}, {"name": "Bible", "slug": "bible", "userId": "8KQH7gQjzNe2XaHSa0b4s5RSCaC3", "groupId": "51Dy6RHymqexkKc057kz", "createdTime": 1672502074661}] | ["bible", "jesus-christ"] | 0.5 | 1675023116597 | 1714838745866 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22305327058490232 | z0KV3SjZC0Gbfl9ukNLt | {"NO": 124.85279012848747, "YES": 513.0130587409373} | 0 | will-there-be-at-least-one-improper | 1090.1575265561742 | Will any of the first ten market resolutions in 2023 be improper? | 1672570800000 | uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.866745136795915 | True | play | NO | public | 1672505661502 | Nico | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To leave enough time for resolutions and disputes, I will wait until 1/5/23 to look at the list of markets resolved after 1/1/23 12:00am EST, but market closes at midnight (EST) today. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672750202705 | 190 | NicoDelon | 1710462524124 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "metaforecasting", "short-fuse"] | 0.5 | 1672570780225 | 1672586438373 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8404959772031494 | WUsouSRArjjODUJ4VXyI | {"NO": 3653.4942992398546, "YES": 488.3138022857206} | 1 | this-market-resolves-yes-if-and-onl-55c8ab38cba7 | 23610.604498849083 | This market resolves YES if and only if its probability never goes above 99% for more than 1 hour. | 1673715600000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0955602436146252 | True | play | YES | public | 1672508520470 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the probability goes above 99% for 1 hour (consecutively), resolves NO immediately (or as soon as someone tells me about it).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, resolves YES at clos... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673730124249 | 730 | AndrewG | 1673712314678 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 37 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672508520722}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1673712314572 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5840666205785323 | tTvS8uI9uk88UxXRfWIe | {"NO": 61.63580011647858, "YES": 111.31578947368423} | 0.43742030150848676 | will-epion-cxl-receive-fda-approval | 90 | Will Epi-On CXL receive FDA approval by 2025 | 1735718340000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672509186165 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Corneal Cross-Linking (CXL) is a procedure to stop/slow the progression of Keratoconus, a degenerative eye disorder. Current procedures involve removing the epithelium (outer layer) of the cornea beforehand, which is painful, has slow recovery, and... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 90 | VivaLaPanda | 1707799477752 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1672509186363}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737297153}] | ["medicine", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1707799477602 | 1672509400956 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4216502363747534 | 8oFP7ReWX5hwIm456D9z | {"NO": 995.1563574524258, "YES": 947.6611253118645} | 0.4336192343520575 | will-there-be-a-highspeed-rail-betw-317bb3adb342 | 1270.650473624147 | Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040? | 2240632740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.770709485877038 | False | basic | public | 1672510648054 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.009325561106614255, "month": 0.012172939106973146} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.816833420208312, "platformFee": 0.16764329726066038, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1719883775042 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1672510648285}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "createdTime"... | ["california", "carsons-important-markets", "california-highspeed-rail-project"] | 0.10204973832857189 | 0.5 | 1719883771985 | 1719588954125 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2991432368037591 | ykqeYPawGl3JsKUBIoUN | {"NO": 528.8460428335814, "YES": 3457.8836371238863} | 0 | will-a-covid-vaccine-be-pulled-off | 10323.265682065372 | Will a Covid vaccine be pulled off the market due to safety concerns in 2023? | 1704063540000 | yPcU3hJzFvNrGFIShJny2Vwpdvn2 | cpmm-1 | 0.022580099711591223 | 0.6196280002192087 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672511432553 | Maximilian G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if a vaccine that was widely administered (more than 1 million doses) is pulled off the market due to safety concerns in at least one OECD country, at any point in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704184689367 | 1000 | MaximilianG | 1704184689571 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0bX2tFcpm-T-xrBKfcxdIFgOuEyeUhxjO31VOf=s96-c | 2 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Covid", "slug": "covid", "userId": "yPcU3hJzFvNrGFIShJny2Vwpdvn2", "groupId": "iGfuM2jmlUwyQVMGyDbi", "createdTime": 1672511433442}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130042191}] | ["covid", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13854205036729553 | 0.5 | 1704015401591 | 1687159847546 | 0.06 | yPcU3hJzFvNrGFIShJny2Vwpdvn2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18251825589409293 | HQGQ1pQMxu6hwco4wGXK | {"NO": 1046.9522538779195, "YES": 744.2554607543307} | 0.23900831287991675 | prediction-market-romantic-comedy-b | 847.397106621033 | Prediction market romantic comedy by end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.713661107403606 | False | basic | public | 1672512503958 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stock markets don't count as prediction markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Media from 2022 and before don't count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If in video form, it must be ... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.06899656649585825} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.215004264801366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MartinRandall | 1720241494166 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672512504769}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmc... | ["entertainment", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1719237460826 | 1720241490269 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7527614857509597 | zw5Wi59c0qM9oVdqfand | {"NO": 3619.6470026967895, "YES": 124.37040087160429} | 1 | will-i-continue-to-be-in-the-top-50 | 5127.055543024049 | Will I continue to be in the top 50 market creators on Manifold by end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.422700344717472 | True | play | YES | public | 1672512933825 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704132182617 | 390 | CarsonGale | 1704132182949 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672512934159}, {"name": "Markets About Carson", "slug": "markets-about-carson", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "QF1b8oZcjh8UqJO0VKAa", "createdTime": 1... | ["personal-goals", "markets-about-carson", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704087326016 | 0.99 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6352378921824381 | mClyweMQ4HQqOutNUrNA | {"NO": 1089.6966945453394, "YES": 893.04507242405} | 0.6799999999999996 | will-instacart-join-the-sp-500 | 3506.6843057840233 | Will Instacart join the S&P 500? | 2524629540000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.693300999314573 | False | basic | public | 1672521727801 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1696117720208 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Markets", "slug": "markets", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "M3DAkm4fP0XVdJBAiRgr", "createdTime": 1672522259513}] | ["markets"] | 0.5 | 1696117719737 | 1694462865790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14711030598459043 | Nosad4X6QBHyQLTO1Kz1 | {"NO": 249.24416403515875, "YES": 1454.2755949949528} | 0 | will-i-accidentally-resolve-a-marke | 2853.2093666312257 | Will I accidentally resolve a market incorrectly in the next 24 hours? | 1673045937098 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3710698176967284 | True | play | NO | public | 1672538425416 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-09 9:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673045937098 | 350 | BTE | 1673045873146 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672538425625}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1673045873053 | 1672619990279 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.563683935794259 | oFb5dPyjSjNNBWibELII | {"NO": 263.10619445336545, "YES": 72.55520363068285} | 1 | will-maridel-have-more-total-poems | 202.42008680663844 | Will Maridel have more total poems posted than V on The Inkwell by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | 2Pynf5ibeuXpyfITCcZ7K0HYW7Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5571328175637427 | True | play | YES | public | 1672539263284 | Puntabulous | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An official poem is one that's part of V or Maridel's main collection, not just something one of them posts in a random channel. Market resolves as expected (EDIT: if they end up tied, the market resolves PROB to 50%).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704506700933 | 130 | puntabulous | 1704511377643 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3NYCK3mfhiffTOJSNGVFAcruy_Zbf2iMOZKh5o3A=s96-c | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "2Pynf5ibeuXpyfITCcZ7K0HYW7Q2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672539313912}, {"name": "Inkwell", "slug": "inkwell", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "SD8JklTitVpn1g994bDp", "createdTime": 1672617804964}, {"name": "�... | ["personal-goals", "inkwell", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1702065409841 | 1704511376993 | 0.82 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8828218974039633 | t2OcLjSXNqWV1A4B2iIf | {"NO": 939.7039931667632, "YES": 119.92854700725366} | 1 | resolves-to-the-number-of-comments | 726.8448593016071 | Resolves to the number of comments on this post | 1672646340000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.988537986565064 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672540782029 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If comments >= 100, comments resolves to 100.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672646419017 | 390 | ZZZZZZ | 1672594578718 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672540782342}] | ["experimental"] | 0.01 | 1672594578550 | 1672548294475 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49568624669705075 | 4UvgKtw4RIwWZIvdR0KL | {"NO": 35.05644011116663, "YES": 424.0323265687136} | 0 | will-roundlognumber-of-comments-on | 7989.195157076982 | Resolves to YES if round(log(number of comments on this)) is odd | 1672646340000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1408067731076077 | True | play | NO | public | 1672543635887 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.desmos.com/calculator/c6lfvpvlb1", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672646618984 | 130 | ZZZZZZ | 1672865152782 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672543636144}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "created... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "experimental"] | 0.5 | 1672646240113 | 1672865151184 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4041805638419253 | KFnPMLm32xnFNJObGLWu | {"NO": 217.76987457588538, "YES": 2131.9782628132366} | 0 | will-i-test-positive-for-covid-in-2-b27e0391d4f3 | 3641.9782476442565 | Will I test positive for COVID in 2023? | 1704099660000 | 5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1 | cpmm-1 | 1.7122442094684478e-15 | 1.0118825807227718 | True | play | NO | public | 1672545327393 | Jacob Pfau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have never tested positive for COVID despite not being cautious and usually PCR testing when symptomatic (always at least rapid testing). I have had 5 vaccine shots, and intend to get another shot every 5-7 months. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704267257982 | 630 | JacobPfau | 1710206837555 | 1.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c | 1 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "health", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.10264547862745568 | 0.5 | 1702949876938 | 1704221648137 | 0.06 | 5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3073145959360358 | TXBnTgCm6N7NEhH1LTx4 | {"NO": 82.89706234861836, "YES": 1179.0820208913458} | 0 | will-i-publish-at-least-5-blogposts | 1093.7036981790595 | Will I publish at least 5 blogposts in 2023? | 1704063540000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6924864958622834 | True | play | NO | public | 1672547569301 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See agentydragon.com", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704077959678 | 230 | agentydragon | 1704077959961 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672547569779}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16816097060... | ["personal-goals", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704060425855 | 1673509068358 | 0.03 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5088112572744926 | wjCBPxOhLWyOJu32zs7w | {"NO": 94.92659346299786, "YES": 223.29733112265643} | 0 | will-i-go-to-lesswrong-european-com | 197.16559309223325 | Will I go to LessWrong European Community Weekend 2023? | 1703500029419 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1675314736563047 | True | play | NO | public | 1672547624886 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703500029419 | 150 | agentydragon | 1701763390179 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672547625754}, {"name": "LWCW 2023", "slug": "lwcw-2023", "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "groupId": "T5zEQTu10GXQhDFf9kHu", "createdTime": 1686794325098}, {"name": "🎆 New ... | ["world-default", "lwcw-2023", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09437094461047897 | 0.5 | 1701763389097 | 0.31 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19446660007434333 | 5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP | {"NO": 1215.2669755492175, "YES": 14644.485563995495} | 0 | will-google-search-include-a-chatbo | 1387515.164047034 | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023? | 1688162340000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4150778264092203 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672547723054 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like \"write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBrea... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688234162612 | 2010 | agentydragon | 1688513231446 | 7.9 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 46 | 2105 | 0 | 1 | 998 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672547723413}, {"name": "Controversial markets", "slug": "controversial-markets", "groupId": "545bcc4e-5891-46c0-9c1f-c802bab63d8e", "createdTime": 1689288916540}] | ["technology-default", "controversial-markets"] | 0.3977960697014923 | 0.5 | 1688161834247 | 1688513226160 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6519352269085323 | 774AHsi4UgoghaHHXqoU | {"NO": 367.1057180219517, "YES": 258.78643185142994} | 1 | will-i-get-a-girlfriendboyfriendpar | 179.24323575845554 | Will I get a girlfriend/boyfriend/partner in 2023? | 1685049021210 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3082119141085808 | True | play | YES | public | 1672547833528 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to true if I mutually agree with someone I'm seeing to go with a girlfriend/boyfriend/partner label.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685049021210 | 310 | agentydragon | 1685045839475 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 1 | 14 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672547833877}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1685045839174 | 1684850361453 | 0.73 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.410958904109589 | zlCeKofgt0dgfxkvmmWJ | {"NO": 250, "YES": 250} | 0.2328767123287671 | when-will-i-have-a-new-rental-contr | 0 | When will I have a new rental contract signed? | 1679976232973 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.389969417794143 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672548178965 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to number of days from January 1 (i.e. Jan 1 = 0, Jan 5 = 4, ...) of the day when I have signed a rental/subrental contract that will be the next longer term housing for me after our current lease, which ends at end of May. Or the day when... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679976232973 | 250 | agentydragon | 1678076479850 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672548179265}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.410958904109589 | 1678076477024 | 0.2328767123287671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JLkKNct0OKCFIXtd7d3U | what-teams-will-make-it-to-the-2022-a29a239867a1 | 6369.80149063118 | What teams will make it to the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League semi-finals? | 1682073291646 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.627559421046357 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1672548436017 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Four teams will be selected.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682073291646 | 2140 | AlexLiesman | 1682073233360 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a04aa71e611a", "prob": 0.0006268169176776228, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0009972913508539342, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.5900436054853886, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JLkKNct0OKCFIXtd7d3U", "createdTime": 1672548436431, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 12 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1672548436323}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1672548945581}, {"name": "UEFA", "slu... | ["soccer", "sports-default", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league"] | 1682073199040 | 1682073225204 | {"329b29f44b9f": 24.937449283282582, "4433a65036ea": 24.978677169664664, "50e8ff67e96b": 25.03795934398753, "db8e2da296fb": 25.045914203065212} | True |
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