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will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad-e4ee552c2911
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Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow in 2023?
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cpmm-1
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0.5923062901908408
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1672500866656
Ryan
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will-the-magic-the-gathering-reserv-a9acf9545da0
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Will the Magic: The Gathering Reserved List be altered in 2023?
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2.8142339132640224
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NO
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1672501160435
Ryan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes new cards being added to the Reserved List, cards being removed from the Reserved List, or some other specific policy regarding it being changed. The 30th Anniversary Edition would not count because it does not specifically change the...
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https://firebasestorage.…509-22686d3e4bec
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0
1
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did-jesus-walk-on-water
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Did Jesus walk on water?
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cpmm-1
0
2.571448207193725
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1672502059371
Jesus Christ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if there's convincing evidence from the Bible that Jesus (that's me!) walked on water. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to No otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...
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Would Jesus love LGBTQ+ individuals?
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cpmm-1
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1672502348980
Jesus Christ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if Jesus would love LGBTQ+ individuals", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to No otherwise. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As Jesus myself, I will use ...
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VivaLaPanda
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Carson Gale
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will-a-covid-vaccine-be-pulled-off
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Will a Covid vaccine be pulled off the market due to safety concerns in 2023?
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cpmm-1
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Maximilian G
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Prediction market romantic comedy by end of 2024?
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Martin Randall
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Will I continue to be in the top 50 market creators on Manifold by end of 2023?
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cpmm-1
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Carson Gale
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will-the-colorado-avalanche-win-the
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Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2023 NHL playoffs?
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cpmm-1
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3.0599178718555735
True
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NO
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1672513391462
Tony Jackson
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TonyJackson
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Will Elon Musk have the most followed Twitter account in 2023?
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1672513399921
Yona
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What percentage of China got Covid before Nov. 2022?
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uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3
cpmm-1
0
8.039872955034614
True
play
MKT
public
1672538778524
Boklam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to PROB: my best estimate, based only on informal polling, of the fraction of China's population that had Covid and knew it before Nov. 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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Boklam
1710206840490
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c
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https://firebasestorage.…1e8-350250cdb908
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[{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "Less Than Zero Covid", "slug": "less-than-zero-covid", "groupId": "BSkJvdFOVQ39jaPIrYnj"}]
["china", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "less-than-zero-covid"]
0.020632026110959278
1672547050530
1674781883434
False
0.5195718481295429
0.563683935794259
oFb5dPyjSjNNBWibELII
{"NO": 263.10619445336545, "YES": 72.55520363068285}
1
will-maridel-have-more-total-poems
202.42008680663844
Will Maridel have more total poems posted than V on The Inkwell by the end of 2023?
1704067140000
2Pynf5ibeuXpyfITCcZ7K0HYW7Q2
cpmm-1
0
2.5571328175637427
True
play
YES
public
1672539263284
Puntabulous
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An official poem is one that's part of V or Maridel's main collection, not just something one of them posts in a random channel. Market resolves as expected (EDIT: if they end up tied, the market resolves PROB to 50%).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...
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puntabulous
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https://firebasestorage.…db6-be4af083fc00
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will-there-have-been-a-noticeable-s
74053.74180409497
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
1704067140000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
3.2089572753426105e-16
0.28294757520387837
True
basic
NO
public
1672539267221
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By new I mean put into widespread commercial use during 2023. The effect will need to impact the whole sector of an economy (e.g. car manufacturing, online advertising, education) in a way that is noticeable in at least one key economic measure (gr...
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Keepcalmandchill
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https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
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https://firebasestorage.…8fe-1e15692cdca6
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1704063800314
1702575056055
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XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
rgMcnq1RZk8xWKffEYAN
who-will-be-the-next-world-leader-t
51
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
1924952340000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1672539489971
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heads of state and government included.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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Keepcalmandchill
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https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
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ANYONE
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https://firebasestorage.…296-9c89ecb3e685
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672539491018}]
["politics-default"]
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True
True
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t2OcLjSXNqWV1A4B2iIf
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resolves-to-the-number-of-comments
726.8448593016071
Resolves to the number of comments on this post
1672646340000
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cpmm-1
0
4.988537986565064
True
play
MKT
public
1672540782029
ZZZ ZZZ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If comments >= 100, comments resolves to 100.", "type": "text"}]}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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1672646419017
390
ZZZZZZ
1672594578718
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https://firebasestorage.…280-d14d0d5ca2f9
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https://firebasestorage.…b0c-97e58e0fabab
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1672594578550
1672548294475
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dV6LqKmb34LFpoh7qBxo
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will-russia-begin-a-new-wave-of-mob
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Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation during January 2023?
1675169940000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
0.44048018049981463
True
basic
NO
public
1672541152763
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
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1675291032903
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Keepcalmandchill
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https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
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https://firebasestorage.…cf0-868c3d7e20d8
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1675165007404
1675198506435
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0.49568624669705075
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will-roundlognumber-of-comments-on
7989.195157076982
Resolves to YES if round(log(number of comments on this)) is odd
1672646340000
n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2
cpmm-1
0
3.1408067731076077
True
play
NO
public
1672543635887
ZZZ ZZZ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.desmos.com/calculator/c6lfvpvlb1", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1672646618984
130
ZZZZZZ
1672865152782
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https://firebasestorage.…280-d14d0d5ca2f9
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https://firebasestorage.…172-8f76a38274c4
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[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672543636144}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "created...
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1672646240113
1672865151184
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0
will-i-test-positive-for-covid-in-2-b27e0391d4f3
3641.9782476442565
Will I test positive for COVID in 2023?
1704099660000
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
cpmm-1
1.7122442094684478e-15
1.0118825807227718
True
play
NO
public
1672545327393
Jacob Pfau
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have never tested positive for COVID despite not being cautious and usually PCR testing when symptomatic (always at least rapid testing). I have had 5 vaccine shots, and intend to get another shot every 5-7 months. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ...
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1704267257982
630
JacobPfau
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https://firebasestorage.…143-a9417aa4a416
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[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]
["new-years-resolutions-2024", "health", "covid-d7a9361d772d"]
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0.5
1702949876938
1704221648137
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0.3073145959360358
TXBnTgCm6N7NEhH1LTx4
{"NO": 82.89706234861836, "YES": 1179.0820208913458}
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will-i-publish-at-least-5-blogposts
1093.7036981790595
Will I publish at least 5 blogposts in 2023?
1704063540000
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
cpmm-1
0
2.6924864958622834
True
play
NO
public
1672547569301
Rai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See agentydragon.com", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1704077959678
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agentydragon
1704077959961
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c
10
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…851-c5228be8efc3
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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672547569779}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16816097060...
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1704060425855
1673509068358
0.03
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
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will-i-go-to-lesswrong-european-com
197.16559309223325
Will I go to LessWrong European Community Weekend 2023?
1703500029419
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
cpmm-1
0
2.1675314736563047
True
play
NO
public
1672547624886
Rai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703500029419
150
agentydragon
1701763390179
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c
1
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…90a-fb480553ecf4
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672547625754}, {"name": "LWCW 2023", "slug": "lwcw-2023", "userId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "groupId": "T5zEQTu10GXQhDFf9kHu", "createdTime": 1686794325098}, {"name": "🎆 New ...
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1701763389097
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zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
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will-google-search-include-a-chatbo
1387515.164047034
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?
1688162340000
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
cpmm-1
0
0.4150778264092203
True
basic
NO
public
1672547723054
Rai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like \"write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBrea...
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agentydragon
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c
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will-i-get-a-girlfriendboyfriendpar
179.24323575845554
Will I get a girlfriend/boyfriend/partner in 2023?
1685049021210
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
cpmm-1
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1.3082119141085808
True
play
YES
public
1672547833528
Rai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to true if I mutually agree with someone I'm seeing to go with a girlfriend/boyfriend/partner label.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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agentydragon
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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672547833877}]
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1685045839174
1684850361453
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zlCeKofgt0dgfxkvmmWJ
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0.2328767123287671
when-will-i-have-a-new-rental-contr
0
When will I have a new rental contract signed?
1679976232973
zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2
cpmm-1
0
1.389969417794143
True
play
MKT
public
1672548178965
Rai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to number of days from January 1 (i.e. Jan 1 = 0, Jan 5 = 4, ...) of the day when I have signed a rental/subrental contract that will be the next longer term housing for me after our current lease, which ends at end of May. Or the day when...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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agentydragon
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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672548179265}]
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what-teams-will-make-it-to-the-2022-a29a239867a1
6369.80149063118
What teams will make it to the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League semi-finals?
1682073291646
TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.627559421046357
True
basic
MKT
public
1672548436017
Alex...
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Four teams will be selected.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1682073291646
2140
AlexLiesman
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https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc
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ANYONE
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True