p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
r9nr1ugZLADPSnQq7uHD | what-will-be-ratio-be-between-the-s | 239.18554445942524 | What will be ratio be between the sentences imposed on SBF and Ellison? | 1861898400000 | 3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672548560119 | Jason | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For instance, if SBF receives a sentence of 21 years and Ellison receives a sentence of 5 years, the ratio would be 4.2.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the categories below, \"1.51\" means... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 480 | Jason | 1715216898648 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2s9HG_6ACuBG1uZhc05q9l6mjlS0lDQqbJCxXN=s96-c | 7 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b430c083c175", "prob": 0.35568256759727407, "text": "Any scenario in which one or both does not receive a sentence of incarceration", "index": 0, "poolNo": 66.06690141097992, "userId": "3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 119.6799060788518, "textFts": "'incarcer':14 'one':5 'receiv':10 ... | 3 | [{"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1672548560525}] | ["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"] | 0.0878599974406357 | 1715216898648 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.746943402753494 | WZE53ZwdxFw0sA6bKSfS | {"NO": 425.58931207146, "YES": 153.4245327952483} | 1 | will-i-be-in-usa-on-a-h1b-visa-at-m | 725.1798031195392 | Will I be in USA on a H1b visa at market close? | 1688076000000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.265727190074792 | True | play | YES | public | 1672548966803 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently on a J1. Resolves YES if by market close I've managed to convert it to a H1b. I already got approved, I just gotta fill out the paperwork, go to the interview at my original embassy or get change of status. This is bottlenecked on my ener... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688077533482 | 230 | agentydragon | 1688075483198 | 0.7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672548967090}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16816097391... | ["personal-goals", "ancient-markets"] | 0.10000641350600505 | 0.5 | 1688075483063 | 1684311470812 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6500000000000005 | Mg5BbvxVBSP86JruPKmt | {"NO": 1030.7523616980277, "YES": 22.184673412445512} | 1 | will-bayesian-choir-rehearse-on-202 | 1244.3145272714212 | Will Bayesian Choir rehearse on 2023/01/22? | 1674431940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.017115391023638 | True | play | YES | public | 1672549142998 | Mike Blume | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674452298724 | 90 | MichaelBlume | 1674417931646 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1672549153671}, {"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1672549157399}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists", "valinor"] | 0.5 | 1674417931455 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2955852335497085 | NV8gGe0ny31K6K6dI5lK | {"NO": 267.17207502700523, "YES": 276.84624380858867} | 0.1851851851851852 | what-will-be-my-phq9-score-as-of-ma | 54.409038332266455 | What will be my PHQ-9 score as of market close? | 1683691200000 | zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5133957222279542 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672549270346 | Rai | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When I notice this market is about to close in a day or two, or get a notification that it closed, I'll take the PHQ-9 and resolve to the result I get.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683738262946 | 270 | agentydragon | 1683651999898 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672549270664}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16835113451... | ["personal-goals", "ancient-markets"] | 0.2962962962962963 | 1683651999774 | 1674452736307 | 0.1851851851851852 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3398734183164537 | BKWCusNx0vFWtxvZRvnv | {"NO": 697.5080376985679, "YES": 6370.789628315615} | 0 | will-destiny-hit-a-900-including-90 | 17378.352722119533 | Will Destiny hit A 900+ ( including 900 ) First Try 2023 | 1672621446770 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.41779287705878776 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672549410705 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The criteria is that on his first attempt on stream does he fail or not", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672621446770 | 1750 | PryingMind | 1672696880183 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 0 | 87 | 0 | 84 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672549411571}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672621445505 | 1672696877156 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5348500676246013 | a5ikkHFLIMwXMyPAPz1W | {"NO": 387.0961695973083, "YES": 637.5180015063391} | 1 | will-any-sculpture-i-make-in-my-fir | 1937.4291129370017 | Will any sculpture I make in my first year get a purchase offer? | 1702342842316 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7390385837851858 | True | play | YES | public | 1672549997962 | Alice | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if someone makes an offer to buy a sculpture I make in 2023. No purchase has to go through, but there needs to be a real intention to buy at a reasonable price. If it's a commission, the work needs to be done by the end of ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702342842316 | 590 | Alice | 1702391831348 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c | 2 | 31 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672550126328}, {"name": "Art World", "slug": "art-world", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "IS17cj2ATVB9aQr9WcTD", "createdTime": 1672550134109}, {"name"... | ["personal-goals", "art-world", "alice-tries-to-sculpt"] | 0.5 | 1702314456406 | 1702391830581 | 0.41 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17097146334322735 | DE1psFrySZKRoNuatXkX | {"NO": 1486.8790209587503, "YES": 1658.5666292147666} | 0.1560347788809228 | will-there-be-100-million-famine-de | 3086.8797678467076 | Will there be 100 million famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032? | 1988150340000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0534369039916927 | 9.305037541548113 | False | basic | public | 1672550151636 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022-Dec ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Peter Zeihan", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "clai... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2614055906459332, "platformFee": 0.2614055906459332, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1550 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1713887200489 | 1.1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672550152544}, {"name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1672783709676}] | ["economics-default", "geopolitics"] | 0.14005622142822807 | 0.5 | 1713887197139 | 1672746597368 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5833328501196895 | PpA6UG1RMNOrev24gse3 | {"NO": 359.850584104858, "YES": 295.32143376513756} | 1 | can-i-become-a-sculptor-in-one-year | 5754.299540504012 | Can I become a sculptor in one year? | 1704067140000 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.12028776755876 | True | play | YES | public | 1672550300174 | Alice | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can I start with zero experience and become a sculptor in one year?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if the following markets all resolve yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704762231347 | 390 | Alice | 1704763523166 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 8 | [{"name": "Art World", "slug": "art-world", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "IS17cj2ATVB9aQr9WcTD", "createdTime": 1672550314774}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672550324883}, {"name"... | ["art-world", "personal-goals", "alice-tries-to-sculpt", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09789309512093382 | 0.5 | 1704028540451 | 1704763521428 | 0.63 | qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5549888160588891 | oVC7McXnHlbLMDee523q | {"NO": 22.710185634328127, "YES": 3151.0204965755665} | 0 | will-destinys-friend-still-be-using | 23514.884260253788 | Will Destiny's "friend" still be using @DestiDarko to tweet in 6 months? | 1688227200000 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.109928487200988 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672550636355 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@DestiDarko needs to have made a tweet within 2 weeks of July 1, which looks like June 18th. Otherwise this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688231130290 | 1030 | AlexLiesman | 1710218610193 | 0.8 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.1340104157228696 | 0.5 | 1688227145757 | 1688734618585 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7897538440086707 | jwEH9AldiAhk4iFh9e9y | {"NO": 20174.086908300476, "YES": 293.3927928627527} | 1 | will-hunter-biden-be-criminally-ind | 102278.20735116903 | Will Hunter Biden be criminally indicted in 2023? | 1696509478130 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0.013438168314093621 | 1.1342343793647531 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672551010282 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Felony's and higher, State or Federal.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696509478130 | 1890 | AlexLiesman | 1704321094826 | 1.5 | 2 | 102 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672551011398}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1672551024724... | ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default"] | 0.1842150074926332 | 0.5 | 1696509418854 | 1696511743601 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1902720403990376 | Sy1YGeyoUqnLGytPviu0 | {"NO": 136.7098727613525, "YES": 1128.7210459455987} | 0 | will-mathlib-track-formal-proofs-of | 1697.5143214821057 | Will mathlib track formal proofs of at least 80 out of 100 theorems from Freek Wiedijk's list by 2023-06-01? | 1685663940000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.990043225327701 | True | play | NO | public | 1672553230295 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://leanprover-community.github.io/100.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " indicate 80 or more theorems have been ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685665084776 | 250 | BoltonBailey | 1685662940830 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "The Lean Theorem Prover", "slug": "the-lean-theorem-prover", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "ygVvw5q3CKtOnX0ICP4m", "createdTime": 1672553230453}] | ["the-lean-theorem-prover"] | 0.5 | 1685662939553 | 1672554248897 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46364548133639594 | Sm94gcvZEUXvihYrG5vN | {"NO": 229.24869854360736, "YES": 6849.747010395526} | 0 | will-tether-depeg-even-slightly-in | 14675.318710491756 | Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2023? | 1704067140000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8078041117461079 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672553335148 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/historical-data/", "class": null, "target": "_bl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704072352679 | 1215 | BoltonBailey | 1704072353302 | 0.1 | 2 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1672553335382}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1697871179728}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-specul... | ["stablecoins", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1078209904786536 | 0.5 | 1704022121602 | 1702392644288 | 0.03 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3718598567882358 | zXL9g6jXNKkpnSBoxrTo | {"NO": 236.9207276094723, "YES": 4480.731829129015} | 0 | will-binance-usd-depeg-even-slightl-5187571f1134 | 5723.93061751656 | Will Binance USD depeg even slightly in 2023? | 1704067140000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9817522540637014 | True | play | NO | public | 1672553408387 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the closing price for Binance USD listed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/binance-usd/historical-data/", "class": null, "tar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704072325241 | 790 | BoltonBailey | 1704072325681 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Stablecoins", "slug": "stablecoins", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hUhfLNjwuIWIjGkMyoQT", "createdTime": 1672553408592}, {"name": "Binance", "slug": "binance", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "DLuKOeXGWESoStfOez08", "createdTime": 1686193050500}, {"name": "New Yea... | ["stablecoins", "binance", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703699646873 | 1701705574167 | 0.03 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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s3YgAfFjSo5fvymI42Zy | when-will-minnesota-finally-stop-vo | 35 | When will Minnesota finally stop voting Democrat for the first time? | 253370786460000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672558830411 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 700.0000000000001 | StochasticParrot | 1684135197958 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e3c8c6943350", "prob": 0.5486968449931413, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.122717737269, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.065935338903753, "textFts": "", "contractId": "s3YgAfFjSo5fvymI42Zy", "createdTime": 1672558831446, "probChanges": {"day": -0.4513031550068... | 3 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672558831331}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737301636}] | ["us-politics", "ancient-markets"] | 1684135197851 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3785294897723603 | pcU4mB6ZFk9dgMuXdMMy | {"NO": 946.3647400633826, "YES": 1069.7009434346703} | 0.3501680020469533 | will-an-aipowered-tool-produce-a-co | 337.3764616187907 | Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026? | 1798783260000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.66494539828227 | False | basic | public | 1672559108396 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is inevitable, it is only a matter of when...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Compared to many of the other downstream applications of AI, this is super-benign", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1703075582692 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672559109255}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1703075582553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5098020827133161 | 4qUkE97s05Zm0ROSrteQ | {"NO": 183.47210897349984, "YES": 156.66319129414532} | 0.5491353566599838 | will-sam-altmans-horvath-dnam-age-b | 60.250542652654204 | Will Sam Altman's Horvath DNAm age be lower than his chronological age? | 2209010460000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672559333724 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 170 | StochasticParrot | 1685687612011 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672559334935}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1676970037130 | 1685687609218 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22147892766733357 | Z7iKeOASKvscKziPj16K | {"NO": 124.93321627349289, "YES": 104.17376923569407} | 0 | will-courtney-get-more-votes-than-e | 1076.849921198195 | Will Courtney get more votes than Evil_Fossil in the 2022 Destiny Awards? | 1672651977822 | Eqv5RO1mXUQpilU5J2DnF9itkHE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5193348147003163 | True | play | NO | public | 1672559337221 | anne | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/destinyawards21/status/1608966464920522753?s=46&t=Q0lIGjZc-d9nzXKWW9L70Q", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/destinyawards21/status/1608966464920522753?s=46&t=Q0lIGjZc-d9nzXKWW9L70... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672651977822 | 210 | anne | 1710218578536 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672648196335 | 1672652034533 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3099658759005955 | TxNhSJcQNuMyejGW5XuY | {"NO": 82.44398979017873, "YES": 171.00000000000003} | 0.17801954887777127 | will-peter-thiels-horvath-dnam-age | 61 | Will Peter Thiel's Horvath DNAm age be higher than his chronological age? | 2682396060000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672559355803 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 110 | StochasticParrot | 1680668460632 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672559356510}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1680668457900 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.9039776581845175 | 0Mfd0dtJdpfGPJmC8kQh | {"NO": 4514.547589558788, "YES": 223.2865745985666} | 1 | will-twitter-unban-destiny-before-m | 5483.378770515167 | Will Twitter unban Destiny before March? | 1672723588855 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.878371628375464 | True | play | YES | public | 1672579096470 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) is unbanned by Twitter before March 2023, otherwise NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is defined as: YES if Destiny is allowed back ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672723588855 | 710 | jack | 1672724875342 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 30 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672579096929}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1672579137464}] | ["destinygg", "twitter"] | 0.5 | 1672716318473 | 1672724871881 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30406703571166105 | fvsMrNSVXdRFupxMiueG | {"NO": 1185.7587429213206, "YES": 4373.733274922272} | 0 | will-destiny-finish-factorio-by-31 | 50888.31979621665 | Will destiny finish factorio by 31 Jan 2023 | 1675191540000 | YB1Akv006oXaldp5utORtjnDSa33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.298760740944896 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672581338701 | wowgrape | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675480543268 | 1890 | wowgrape | 1675278424770 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 0 | 1 | 78 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "YB1Akv006oXaldp5utORtjnDSa33", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672581339154}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675191493307 | 1675278419945 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.24266490872909602 | qCDxQquMiJDTOxZ0766T | {"NO": 152.3408482545552, "YES": 1195.0868549529182} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-join-a-london-1010a9eb3380 | 1035.3787033008753 | Will Scott Alexander join a London Rationalish meetup in 2023? | 1704047650915 | Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.185766665414316 | True | play | NO | public | 1672582393473 | Alex Palcuie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "London Rationalish identifies as a London-based meetup for members of the rationalist diaspora. The diaspora includes, but is not limited to, LessWrong, Astral Codex Ten, rationalist tumblrsphere, and parts of the Effective Altruism movement.", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704047650915 | 270 | palcu | 1704047651548 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVXM0UnPSHAbQ1jkPXcxs_FoGVMbzyHCxV_V0KjgM=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "London Rationalish", "slug": "london-rationalish", "userId": "Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1", "groupId": "jS7iB6km1feuWs0JkFuA", "createdTime": 1672582393644}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130969386}] | ["london-rationalish", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703984482909 | 1672585726067 | 0.04 | Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6823639629396367 | l3sjYYBxTOhL7KzxuaDW | {"NO": 10980.910368248591, "YES": 872.1347781796018} | 1 | will-destiny-still-have-blue-hair-a-efd9fa5136bf | 44792.254660173516 | Will destiny still have blue hair at the end of January 2023? | 1675205940000 | qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3550302825639746 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672582449489 | Agh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has enjoyed the female attention it has gotten him, but he has also expressed annoyance at the necessary upkeep.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675206530849 | 2040 | Agh | 1675203637066 | 0 | 10 | 336 | 0 | 1 | 293 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672582449919}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675203636888 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1930257330513247 | o39zjZWJ0JS3exGbyCQW | {"NO": 555.8207650771656, "YES": 58533.27537109921} | 0 | will-destiny-get-unbanned-on-twitch-f2b4e1a382e7 | 74453.75725726133 | Will Destiny get unbanned on twitch before April? | 1680351574846 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.06302809741937576 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672582674722 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if before April 2023, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/destiny", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is unba... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680351574846 | 1570 | jack | 1710218608693 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 49 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1680351567304 | 1680335585332 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2614229695714685 | PGikkoTh9EBryNsG2K5n | {"NO": 120.45995481742533, "YES": 680.0220259399442} | 0 | will-mr-beast-post-a-new-video-in-t | 540.6016149900682 | Will MR BEAST post a new video in the next 7 days? | 1673164740000 | wiBPUYfUBWeAoi9zxNAO7ENNn623 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.49771562736145 | True | play | NO | public | 1672586532270 | Hei | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only his main channel will count. Full videos, no Youtube Shorts. Market closes and resolves on 7th Jan at 2359h PST. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673183354906 | 210 | Hei | 1673152454053 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp76A1-gvNCORb3jaVsqB_n5LYGSmrrYXehShiG4=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "wiBPUYfUBWeAoi9zxNAO7ENNn623", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672586532543}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1673152453851 | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4950791362924105 | E2ur6p7Xhgy1vJeUbXkU | {"NO": 95.45454545454547, "YES": 84.54430281613179} | 1 | will-i-weigh-at-least-69kg-in-2023 | 15 | Will I weigh at least 69kg in 2023? | 1701769840761 | Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9936145664811953 | True | play | YES | public | 1672587171706 | Alex Palcuie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been trying to bulk up for about 10 years, with various degrees of success. Last year I managed to add another 2kg (4.4lbs).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mant... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1701769840761 | 90 | palcu | 1701769873106 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVXM0UnPSHAbQ1jkPXcxs_FoGVMbzyHCxV_V0KjgM=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Palcu's Group", "slug": "palcus-group", "userId": "Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1", "groupId": "SqvLbA9IaDQ7HhO1QuqN", "createdTime": 1672587171919}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737303238}... | ["palcus-group", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1684567015488 | 1701769871356 | 0.53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39944187095753997 | 0u5jfMtoVpk0ZzLTpxtg | {"NO": 111.68520891854045, "YES": 2395.5237758238304} | 0.05 | what-year-will-nick-saban-cease-to | 2148.014944485469 | What year will Nick Saban cease to be the University of Alabama head football coach? | 1705160041275 | IqEw2fPjaSPH9SORedO1rnbWDwQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6688715452595517 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672587330390 | zaphod | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve when statement from University of Alabama Athletics naming a new coach or interim coach is published.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705160041275 | 410 | zaphod | 1705160056625 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "IqEw2fPjaSPH9SORedO1rnbWDwQ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1672587330812}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1704926225959 | 1705160055108 | 0.05 | IqEw2fPjaSPH9SORedO1rnbWDwQ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19718868309151028 | L56L2w5u7H2hEB3Fa7jq | {"NO": 189.16597067094784, "YES": 226.85099314390038} | 0 | will-there-still-be-movie-streams-i | 243.44363503071366 | Will there still be movie streams in dgg by the end of this week Jan 1 - Jan 8? | 1673051045912 | Ghy4CPF1p9bljnIsOhAIMPITxT63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.607046914182509 | True | play | NO | public | 1672587850807 | Shoob | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meaning either Destiny bans dgg movie streams or movie conductors saying for whatever reason that they will not stream movies anymore past this week. Streaming movies in strims does not count for this market to resolve yes, only dgg embeds. ", "typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673051045912 | 210 | Shoob | 1710218548482 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672866562813 | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5441414239777037 | em0qR1YJA2jKFtjRcyv5 | {"NO": 33.89219091513485, "YES": 768.6611022149314} | 0 | will-i-do-at-least-one-business-tri | 752.8188626872104 | Will I do at least one business trip to the US in 2023? | 1704047691492 | Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7125139864241783 | True | play | NO | public | 1672588022225 | Alex Palcuie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I used to do at least 2 business trips to the US per year. But then, the pandemic came and afterwards my company has heavily restricted business travel to only critical trips.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conte... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704047691492 | 190 | palcu | 1704047692201 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVXM0UnPSHAbQ1jkPXcxs_FoGVMbzyHCxV_V0KjgM=s96-c | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Palcu's Group", "slug": "palcus-group", "userId": "Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1", "groupId": "SqvLbA9IaDQ7HhO1QuqN", "createdTime": 1672588022505}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737303761}... | ["palcus-group", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1702452779205 | 0.05 | Ao9XilG4MyT2OsZWp2SHXTeOvPl1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8546006028628492 | SytRlgIuMWz14Q8E1EYo | {"NO": 1844.8051060121325, "YES": 410.3990172541944} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-on-jan-2nd-202 | 3269.6847050111583 | Will Destiny go live on Jan 2nd, 2023? | 1672696647689 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.561520469287276 | True | play | YES | public | 1672589179302 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672696647689 | 570 | AlexLiesman | 1672696644959 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672589179966}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672696644855 | 0.94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2984616149522885 | 7FNZkFjcsOe2c5fbSxdY | {"NO": 432.7582591780604, "YES": 2842.267130943352} | 0 | will-dan-come-on-stream-and-give-an | 4982.766420066355 | Will Dan come on stream and give an update on his home gym before Jan 9? | 1673243940000 | kGKu2DpwwFWou7M8i2yv0SLRViG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7458228256471471 | True | play | NO | public | 1672590579992 | babu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dan is creating a home gym. If he comes on stream and talks about how it is progressing before Jan 9, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673300191418 | 830 | babu | 1673240450609 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "kGKu2DpwwFWou7M8i2yv0SLRViG2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672590580432}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1673240450431 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
j7efqox3cBgezXhMdUN2 | what-will-i-think-was-the-most-unex | 1183.694774985892 | What will I think was the most unexpected event of 2023? | 1704085140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.673020105716098 | True | play | 38aa16cb9cd1 | public | 1672590911350 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please read the description. At this point, I am not notifying everyone who posts an ineligible answer. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of 2023, I will select the response that act... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704593173477 | 1900.000000000001 | Duncn | 1704593173724 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9054c0bcb943", "prob": 0.014229697044671169, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08792453421782555, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.091021787815932, "textFts": "", "contractId": "j7efqox3cBgezXhMdUN2", "resolverId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "createdTime": 167... | 2 | 11 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1672590911564}, {"name": "Natural Disasters", "slug": "natural-disasters", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "7DheCrWGY6V4tkvFa7y9", "createdTime": 1675... | ["metaforecasting", "natural-disasters", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1701723253987 | 1699717997291 | {"38aa16cb9cd1": 100} | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1647050570165613 | WtPKQV6WTa3VvJullOhB | {"NO": 444.852544808158, "YES": 5214.248102915613} | 0 | will-there-be-a-new-hello-internet-f9d31e88ed1e | 7280.366284613538 | Will there be a new Hello Internet episode in 2023? | 1704088740000 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | cpmm-1 | 0.11215333107578178 | 1.2538663214093653 | True | play | NO | public | 1672591981543 | Mvem | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hello Internet is a podcast that has not posted an episode since February, 2020. The only word on the state of the podcast has come from one of the hosts who referred to the hiatus as a \"break\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bradyhara... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704094713091 | 690 | Mvem | 1704094713494 | 1.1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1672591981772}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130840140}] | ["culture-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.15883897050414755 | 0.5 | 1704085710136 | 1672594500167 | 0.02 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gLNx36hnpW8ocuSaMBz2 | how-many-new-threads-will-i-partici | 47 | how many new threads will I participate in this year? | 1704092340000 | y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.910504809655133 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1672592357508 | perinoveau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in 2022, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "I participated in", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://glowfic.com/users/432", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " 13 glowfic threads, 12 of which were started ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704726336937 | 320 | perinoveau | 1704726337187 | 1.1 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "477a606c3b61", "prob": 0.4756242568370987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 63.41656757827983, "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.9167657550535, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gLNx36hnpW8ocuSaMBz2", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16725923... | 2 | 2 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1672592357689}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737304291}, {"name": ... | ["glowfic", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "abandoned", "resolution-pending"] | 0.10017197454373367 | 1687995143617 | 1704726330222 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DUSN3kp9hjCwdN7HaevO | when-in-january-will-i-complete-the | 10 | when in January will I complete the Duolingo monthly challenge Celebrate the New Year with Duo? | 1674434780027 | y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.988398938453521 | True | play | 0a9398799b43 | public | 1672592984802 | perinoveau | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this market is similar to my market for last month's challenge, so the same rules apply:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/perinoveau/when-in-december-will-i-complete-th", "frameBorder": 0, "al... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674434780027 | 320 | perinoveau | 1672986972960 | 0 | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "363935b59ae6", "prob": 0.16528925619834714, "text": "between the 1st and the 7th", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.82633043616499, "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 44.57296870263319, "textFts": "'1st':3 '7th':6", "contractId": "DUSN3kp9hjCwdN7HaevO", "createdTime": 1672592984802, ... | 2 | [{"name": "Duolingo", "slug": "duolingo", "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "groupId": "Hcr1uDm5BE3w2fp8EgQC", "createdTime": 1672592984993}] | ["duolingo"] | 1672593715203 | 1672986970019 | {"0a9398799b43": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.820610893586125 | URdm2CAU1eqs2G8Bmt0O | {"NO": 2384.682997942158, "YES": 211.65197713501652} | 1 | will-the-osirisrex-sample-return-sa | 2462.356281365714 | Will the OSIRIS-REx sample return safely? | 1695828173990 | yPCPXjepx7a8vPZquWdfMYrXNwo1 | cpmm-1 | 1.539095918623324e-15 | 2.2070672485038783 | True | play | YES | public | 1672595078070 | Enaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The OSIRIS-REx mission launched all the way back in 2016 and is returning a sample of the asteroid Bennu to Earth in September 2023. It will land via parachute in the middle of Utah.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1695828173990 | 350 | enaz | 1695796025601 | 0.1 | 17 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "yPCPXjepx7a8vPZquWdfMYrXNwo1", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1672595078344}] | ["space"] | 0.09853740294136833 | 0.5 | 1695796025263 | 1695752613268 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7698287156193706 | iHlUrH04wMnAC02aQXXc | {"NO": 5300.109107391263, "YES": 1041.7142131737573} | 1 | 2023-will-make-2022-look-like-a-sle | 23106.35580871823 | "2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption" | 1708102779787 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.42251944040277944 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672595649247 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update 2024-Feb-16", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I never heard back from Brockman, and the price spent >5 days >=90%. Resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1708102779787 | 1545 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1708102956099 | 0.2 | 3 | 82 | 0 | 2 | 38 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672595650202}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672595664590}, {"name": "New Year's Reso... | ["ai", "experimental", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13723132747567665 | 0.5 | 1708096543882 | 1708102715225 | 0.94 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19730485745801296 | R9PZGWCBNmx4so1kOI08 | {"NO": 161.10580834385416, "YES": 2018.8165115899058} | 0 | will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket | 2368.382643610289 | Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch in 2023? | 1704095940000 | yPCPXjepx7a8vPZquWdfMYrXNwo1 | cpmm-1 | 3.078191837246648e-16 | 2.5075308882952223 | True | play | NO | public | 1672595833782 | Enaz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved yes if a successful New Glenn orbital launch occurs in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704148512696 | 290 | enaz | 1704148512859 | 0.1 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "yPCPXjepx7a8vPZquWdfMYrXNwo1", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1672595834058}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 168317... | ["space", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.10457483168366212 | 0.5 | 1700797145513 | 1681393834262 | 0.02 | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4495791407826126 | 14AfHIg24oAaVAR6vuh3 | {"NO": 36.841375772975475, "YES": 4573.028561903862} | 0 | will-sequoia-markdown-the-value-of | 8337.893641718749 | Will Sequoia markdown the value of their Twitter stake by more than half? | 1704085140000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9575971326531376 | True | play | NO | public | 1672596185964 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any fund that takes institutional money must report audited valuations of every company in their portfolio on a quarterly basis. This market resolves YES if Sequoia writes down the the value of their stake by more than 50-percent. ", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704090025046 | 710 | BTE | 1710451896565 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1704083413698 | 1698806210644 | 0.01 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3161083544076562 | dVeK6OkzDDnCLSoYsRxj | {"NO": 82.22731743113735, "YES": 171.6732553169856} | 1 | will-a-new-scaliform-polychoron-be | 76.19912476597676 | Will a new scaliform polychoron be discovered by June 2023? | 1681943722532 | j6PotXfJ4jg5tW3y0hwR2DVTEPZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7964436535299044 | True | play | YES | public | 1672597950796 | metachirality | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves positively if a new non-dense scaliform polychoron by the definition on Jonathan Bowers' website (linked below), without skew elements and with every vertex lying on the surface of a glome, is discovered before June 1, 2023, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681943722532 | 110 | metachirality | 1675143890065 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5N-aYOVDSabFsmLe2uytD7hjl-58e1xIStWXh9-A=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "j6PotXfJ4jg5tW3y0hwR2DVTEPZ2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672597951005}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511353698}] | ["mathematics", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1675143889858 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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