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0.702056334535821 | wPK81jBBeicKgDoB8yKx | {"NO": 19201.149508973507, "YES": 677.6973697751525} | 1 | how-many-ballots-will-it-take-to-de-610d96a0f6ed | 24999.01330220716 | How many ballots will it take to decide the next speaker of the House? | 1673065691077 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4693542120503267 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672782264416 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minimum ballots is 1, maximum is 15. If it goes over 15, I will still choose 15 as the resolving criteria.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: I thought I had set the max at 20, but I actual... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673065691077 | 2190 | LarsDoucet | 1673065685577 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1 | 125 | 0 | 97 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672782265022}, {"name": "Speaker of the House election", "slug": "speaker-of-the-house-election", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "0mpTdoHFiEzLBSKBYdXr", "cre... | ["us-politics", "speaker-of-the-house-election", "118th-congress"] | 0.07142857142857142 | 1673065678852 | 1673065682597 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6140949763048562 | QygfzxbRlOMnfRgj8A6a | {"NO": 636.6891059004854, "YES": 14.091484397953081} | 1 | will-theskeward-have-a-trustworthy | 489.06328856468986 | Will @TheSkeward have a "Trustworthy. Ish." badge by the end of 2023? | 1672785829412 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.508711118724762 | True | play | YES | public | 1672783092366 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the badge is renamed, that counts too.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672785829412 | 150 | IsaacKing | 1672785814037 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Manibadges", "slug": "manibadges", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "YGk89aVeKcgK8RDHT4bp", "createdTime": 1672783885791}] | ["manibadges"] | 0.5 | 1672785813872 | 1672784732974 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3831008390822589 | bbBC2mB5cGEvx1jcfk0M | {"NO": 219.94805848686616, "YES": 9597.942830190199} | 0 | will-cannabis-be-legalised-in-germa | 14439.391073823246 | Will Cannabis be legalised in Germany in 2023? | 1704067140000 | eZ04zCGRxQV98pBohvCc9dnr8Qt2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0731834556728976 | 0.9950487633637004 | True | basic | NO | public | 1672783490173 | Jannik | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current government decided that Cannbis should become legal.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704074437871 | 1030 | Jannik | 1704074438468 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0SqVEHdjfe485bzB2mJPFwlqfWdoK968o-NWGRDA=s96-c | 1 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "eZ04zCGRxQV98pBohvCc9dnr8Qt2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672783491273}, {"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "toFuvWdYFchnB6mljZSNrUpQAjf1", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1678113598602}, {"name": "🎆 Ne... | ["politics-default", "germany", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13223150354900365 | 0.5 | 1703672926381 | 1695911401619 | 0.01 | eZ04zCGRxQV98pBohvCc9dnr8Qt2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8600720708314223 | RuUXW0gzuNnVAtBkfCZR | {"NO": 2438.095944220449, "YES": 239.92896278160444} | 1 | will-i-have-positive-manifold-profi-aea4d39d9c8e | 2569.5425521481684 | Will I have positive Manifold profits at year-end 2023? | 1704095940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0.20034035548197862 | 2.536545207354602 | True | play | YES | public | 1672783936548 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704132194972 | 350 | CarsonGale | 1704132195342 | 1.1 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672783936872}, {"name": "Markets About Carson", "slug": "markets-about-carson", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "QF1b8oZcjh8UqJO0VKAa", "createdTime": 1... | ["personal-goals", "markets-about-carson", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.15938347860927066 | 0.5 | 1704095225539 | 1673417717043 | 0.98 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46032746659069596 | CX9miVTeJnkCP03R8syN | {"NO": 702.2181271863494, "YES": 1424.8741825165316} | 0.29595827663373525 | will-there-be-another-ea-billionair | 7031.18855637729 | Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024? | 1735689540000 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 0.2082483599852068 | 9.69881751935969 | False | basic | public | 1672784063760 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.009764699852178482, "month": -0.09502092153444286} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.328361413605785, "platformFee": 5.116224137420798, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1005 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1720102264580 | 1.2 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1672784064740}, {"name": "EA Index", "slug": "ea-index", "userId": "UJSbvX4oBRVfS1f5plXJ5Uc1LeZ2", "groupId": "oXZ5v3dDragVJoN4GBBK", "createdTime": 1678086200653}] | ["effective-altruism", "ea-index"] | 0.15157148461601877 | 0.5 | 1720102261436 | 1711012932473 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5951009818947053 | pA31SrMKxUhybg0C6jnB | {"NO": 70.1535937720653, "YES": 127.66666666666669} | 0 | whoever-owns-more-shares-wins-this | 151 | Whoever owns more shares wins this market for their side. | 1673413140000 | KN2VzZLmpJXidnno1yoCHgj5IWm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9478126400311582 | True | play | NO | public | 1672788655655 | Hamm | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this market closes at 01/10/2023 11:59 PM, I'll compare the YES voter who owns the largest number of shares and the NO voter who owns the largest number of shares. If the YES voter has more shares, then this market resolves YES. If the NO vote... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673501700443 | 110 | Hamm | 1673375797617 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7FaKhj_UnkhH_wLkd7f4n44DT_a5f_XScQ5Jq0=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "KN2VzZLmpJXidnno1yoCHgj5IWm2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672788656102}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "KN2VzZLmpJXidnno1yoCHgj5IWm2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1672788664850}] | ["fun", "gambling"] | 0.5 | False | 1673375797510 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2727607517770179 | Rt515kB7LQQY3POIPRZs | {"NO": 291.5433616994173, "YES": 1773.4256315066782} | 0 | will-any-user-with-a-trustworthy-is-a6a30ae6c9d6 | 2122.417595211839 | Will any user with a "Trustworthy. Ish." badge resolve a market dishonorably by the end of 2023? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0999286867321945 | True | play | NO | public | 1672788962515 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolution must occur while they have the badge. This refers only to intentional/malicious misresolutions, not accidents or misunderstandings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An unc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.058077752346815614} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713233261612 | 530 | IsaacKing | 1704096000000 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 22 | 9 | [{"name": "Manibadges", "slug": "manibadges", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "YGk89aVeKcgK8RDHT4bp", "createdTime": 1672788962726}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859836267}, {"name": "Barcalona... | ["manibadges", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.09924858676905816 | 0.5 | 1703651336753 | 1710162115728 | 0.06 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.31279836995564775 | g1NLcIOdVqNlFmM4LnqN | {"NO": 167.21627958331774, "YES": 1596.1613031185768} | 0 | will-destidarko-tweet-by-march | 2456.1175566892134 | Will @DestiDarko tweet by March? | 1677650400000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 1.5870595040232631 | True | play | NO | public | 1672790449395 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Destiny's main account being unbanned, and him being active on it, it seems like he has no use for his youngest alt @DestiDarko. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Resolves NO if there are no tweets on the @DestiDarko twitter account made from now ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677675698846 | 370 | Wobbles | 1677630587349 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672790449890}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1677630584018 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22666319585744724 | r87kpt9slcEvq29MijAQ | {"NO": 81.00390782280647, "YES": 7317.540574535356} | 0 | will-alexliesman-be-trustworthyish | 12943.948955347818 | Will @AlexLiesman be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023? | 1704078572308 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0.07766850809268257 | 3.109729962985905 | True | play | NO | public | 1672791146019 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704078572308 | 410 | AlexLiesman | 1704078573084 | 2.2 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Manibadges", "slug": "manibadges", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "YGk89aVeKcgK8RDHT4bp", "createdTime": 1672791146222}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1677685850609}, {"na... | ["manibadges", "manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11754814803679683 | 0.5 | 1704078452837 | 1704078566620 | 0 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4320827776467064 | H7gVgK6JhHtZHWwRi8cU | {"NO": 203.45494748423872, "YES": 436.9269736104894} | 1 | will-proof-school-be-in-person-tomo | 561.7141655883792 | Will Proof School be in person tomorrow? | 1672843800000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2881571956786062 | True | play | YES | public | 1672791352348 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on what Proof announces the plan will be. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From Dr. V's email: \"We have been monitoring the Bay Area forecast for the next couple of... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672844752423 | 290 | Conflux | 1672843601124 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1672791352587}, {"name": "Proof in Person", "slug": "proof-in-person", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "GVcHOzA7YVBkRTfaUgey", "createdTime": 1672806586634}] | ["proofniks", "proof-in-person"] | 0.5 | 1672843601007 | 1672801785250 | 0.26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6605535504023563 | Z28X1JSzEwsPDWa6KfnW | {"NO": 2679.276063087586, "YES": 110.63715159399888} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-before-5-pm-es-eb4bd3bbb4e0 | 3177.7217132084384 | Will Destiny go live before 5 PM EST on Jan 4th? | 1672869681705 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9523305076466033 | True | play | YES | public | 1672791395061 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-04 5:15 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672869681705 | 350 | AlexLiesman | 1672869636719 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672791396076}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672869636476 | 1672849115970 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5587266522156692 | 9jq7io9YbT1dlcKUKXne | {"NO": 4300.456162413997, "YES": 50.39858707229659} | 1 | war-in-ukraine-will-russia-lose-300 | 4803.857221809394 | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 300,000 troops by the end of 2023? | 1698882781206 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0.29906214929044395 | 2.5188032110769876 | True | play | YES | public | 1672791545838 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2023 - or... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698882781206 | 410 | itsTomekK | 1710208084129 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 0 | 23 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr"}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE"}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz"}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpf... | ["ukrainerussia-war", "russia", "wars", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive"] | 0.13863978935924276 | 0.5 | 1698871358664 | 1698871325386 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20928904837851256 | i98XnLYZ9Z2dBXdRj0XV | {"NO": 866.6836759869326, "YES": 1534.2191691724386} | 0.13007237851468212 | will-most-miles-in-the-us-be-driven | 1307.0199355197715 | Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030? | 1925107140000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.742210548258887 | False | basic | public | 1672791626614 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04119128296535629} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6139951096231457, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ZZZZZZ | 1718571387694 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1672791626836}] | ["selfdriving-vehicles"] | 0.5 | 1718571384629 | 1718202361246 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.33082341815231603 | XaZkV4F34Ex2ZHdxsDAb | {"NO": 134.43645202715803, "YES": 348.92481431544115} | 0 | will-the-projected-major-bay-area-s | 190.0992324574334 | Will the projected major Bay Area storm cause power outages of more than 1 hour for our neighbors? | 1672876740000 | vfLoQfQ0aOSmSl34Ou7YZn58x7Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0575165113910585 | True | play | NO | public | 1672803316845 | Kelsey Piper | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not asking about us because we have a Powerwall.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673310034242 | 190 | KelseyPiper | 1672876070556 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg28jSNohMyMtuLcekDgLtQQemsHU8-g613Cs-l=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "vfLoQfQ0aOSmSl34Ou7YZn58x7Q2", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1672803317813}] | ["san-francisco"] | 0.5 | 1672876070361 | 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8656016277750678 | qbg86Knqe7fMrmefMdFG | {"NO": 2788.956819991725, "YES": 60.303244072328155} | 1 | will-manifold-guess-isaackings-favo | 3050.460869313686 | Will Manifold guess @IsaacKing's favorite number in 20 questions or fewer? | 1672899812048 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.790718496160749 | True | play | YES | public | 1672804059716 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Manifold guesses Isaac's favorite number in 20 questions or less. Resolves NO if the number is not guessed after Isaac answers 20th question or by market close (whichever happens sooner).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "att... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672899812048 | 150 | Jenny | 1672896935703 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672804060042}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 16728040511... | ["fun", "predictions-on-predictions", "mathematics"] | 0.5 | 1672896935584 | 1672896253593 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7496997815265879 | KTCwFDqKPTZ4Er7c4Dnx | {"NO": 666.6881692191246, "YES": 221.87399056591218} | 1 | will-congress-extend-its-moratorium | 1717.6049826095086 | Will Congress extend its moratorium on private spaceflight regulation? | 1696188600000 | 1NEEOJpFStV32EAHkUZg3QFMgcS2 | cpmm-1 | 0.5857060021341819 | 1.6728353680289763 | True | play | YES | public | 1672804626046 | FIGBERT FIGBERT | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executive summary: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/private-human-spaceflight-regulations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/private-human-spaceflight-regul... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703524924074 | 310 | FIGBERTFIGBERT | 1703524915344 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4g26C7iR4TMNWed8PClVIsZO0y7gqgVl166OXV=s96-c | 1 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 3 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "1NEEOJpFStV32EAHkUZg3QFMgcS2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672866789513}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "1NEEOJpFStV32EAHkUZg3QFMgcS2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672866766041}, {... | ["space", "spacex", "technology-default", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 0.1269841084481211 | 0.5 | 1696187551399 | 1703524914629 | 0.9 | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30793119341276937 | ELnRPTx7ZbHdXA9eDo8I | {"NO": 133.16409516257826, "YES": 479.3898937377693} | 0.11 | if-proof-holds-school-in-person-tom | 502.1522998027059 | If Proof holds school in person tomorrow, will we regret it? | 1672970400000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0928696256511183 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672805804468 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market doesn't have specific resolution criteria, but I'll try to resolve to the consensus feeling among Proofniks, particularly teachers and administrators, at the end of Thursday. I may resolve to a percentage. I will resolve N/A if Proof do... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673017473677 | 210 | Conflux | 1673017467173 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1672805804742}, {"name": "Proof in Person", "slug": "proof-in-person", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "GVcHOzA7YVBkRTfaUgey", "createdTime": 1672806566801}] | ["proofniks", "proof-in-person"] | 0.5 | 1672969658546 | 1673017462805 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45643771276251477 | F9ZFJWsW1Rm0EtcY3ZdD | {"NO": 138.49771450367527, "YES": 273.93255216264794} | 0.29802505532648604 | if-proof-does-not-hold-school-in-pe | 179.94172819482714 | If Proof does not hold school in person tomorrow, will we regret it? | 1672844789620 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7632634776916358 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1672806001236 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market doesn't have specific resolution criteria, but I'll try to resolve to the consensus feeling among Proofniks, particularly teachers and administrators, at the end of Thursday. I may resolve to a percentage. I will resolve N/A if Proof do... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672844789620 | 190 | Conflux | 1672841790690 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1672806001532}, {"name": "Proof in Person", "slug": "proof-in-person", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "GVcHOzA7YVBkRTfaUgey", "createdTime": 1672806574122}] | ["proofniks", "proof-in-person"] | 0.5 | 1672841790575 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19574468592720154 | AWuOrNo8OxzHM62Us9T4 | {"NO": 70.04930929414361, "YES": 1770.108807358448} | 0 | will-jim-jordan-vote-for-himself-fo | 1738.9919384367363 | Will Jim Jordan vote for himself for Speaker of the House on any ballot? | 1673069971204 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.599177084285098 | True | play | NO | public | 1672808512432 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jim Jordan has received 6, 19, and 20 votes on the first three ballots of the Speaker of the House election. So far, however, he has voted for Kevin McCarthy instead.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673069971204 | 170 | Conflux | 1673068515916 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1672808531582}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672808520890}, {"n... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "118th-congress", "speaker-of-the-house-election"] | 0.5 | 1673068515771 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.784122999562602 | MCI0sJWAJrYfzOUGHDzv | {"NO": 438.003263072954, "YES": 51.63654596621294} | 1 | in-super-smash-bros-melee-will-shei | 693.4462413272928 | In Super Smash Bros Melee, will Sheik win a major in 2023? | 1674454323519 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.25239432448076 | True | play | YES | public | 1672809260405 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jmook is currently the best Sheik main, and and he was ranked 3rd in Summer 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sheik i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674454323519 | 110 | asmith | 1674439602571 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1673236699415}, {"name": "Super Smash Bros Series", "slug": "super-smash-bros-series", "userId": "Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1", "groupId": "pukhd11nYyEVmGX2uLSk", "createdTime": 1672809... | ["gaming", "super-smash-bros-series", "nintendo", "esports"] | 0.5 | 1674439484393 | 1674439594710 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8226792290564109 | tDL1MmzNSI9UAfbS0szf | {"NO": 966.866517423404, "YES": 982.8528011528443} | 0.8202743141236487 | will-a-purely-aibased-news-agency-e | 23282.702707585744 | Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030? | 1893484800000 | d0SQ2BKmmNQWTXdrZyp0eeUwrkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0.027671576965708548 | 9.694155488515936 | False | basic | public | 1672809423271 | Gavin McCarthy-Bui | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "While there are currently AI's capable of writing articles and some news agency's do use them, what I mean by purely AI run is that the news is defined by an AI that decides what is written, how it is written and when it is published, with any huma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0130121056006687, "platformFee": 0.5057854219664718, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1010 | GavinMcCarthyBui | 1717417186401 | 1.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1d8KLLH1FyivJQsoRNVOdBvgIb7q0NKo9DHjaP=s96-c | 2 | 52 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "d0SQ2BKmmNQWTXdrZyp0eeUwrkn1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672809423719}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673105283584}] | ["ai", "futurism"] | 0.15527702274336233 | 0.5 | 1717417183247 | 1687541082883 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08882764680829579 | IJYocJCB1yOBYcYmNnkh | {"NO": 210.61938899460168, "YES": 4344.195638896604} | 0 | will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-f35890ae4f6d | 5609.892078799812 | Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Wednesday? | 1672894740000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.312542210869745 | True | play | NO | public | 1672809442684 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Wednesday, January 4th (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672899307661 | 350 | BoltonBailey | 1672893092350 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672809585123}, {"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1672809442933}, {"n... | ["118th-congress", "us-politics", "politics-default", "speaker-of-the-house-election"] | 0.5 | 1672893092222 | 1672811232724 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3323454687958612 | 2ud6oQam8805jC58bOod | {"NO": 860.7119956832196, "YES": 1140.016626229602} | 0.27316290179138325 | will-the-118th-congress-enact-more-c5c890c4769c | 947.7682421311613 | Will the 118th Congress Enact more than 250 Pieces of Legislation before the 119th Congress begins? | 1735977540000 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.680934331202614 | False | basic | public | 1672812008189 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed \"Enacted Legislation\" for the 118th Congress per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoshuaB | 1703881725833 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672812008873}, {"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1672812802436}, {... | ["politics-default", "118th-congress", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1703881725688 | 1703830110175 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3007343253127899 | aRlXpo2lhNNfrq1b0xIZ | {"NO": 130.26725708160637, "YES": 274.8251629310077} | 0.16933459342641918 | will-the-118th-congress-enact-more-1c2610eb459e | 684.135301831321 | Will the 118th Congress Enact more than 400 Pieces of Legislation before the 119th Congress begins? | 1735977540000 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1672812044413 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed \"Enacted Legislation\" for the 118th Congress per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2491223035012573, "platformFee": 0.5929377125040274, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 170 | JoshuaB | 1716814833461 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672812044920}, {"name": "118th Congress", "slug": "118th-congress", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "tO4QDTtyRZabZeGGiUJg", "createdTime": 1672812826719}, {... | ["politics-default", "118th-congress", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1716814829816 | 1672812239352 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13559095454171388 | OMiLExyoBPUsyBH99A61 | {"NO": 467.2137524072256, "YES": 445.0938296737664} | 0 | will-destiny-report-mr-girls-treatm | 1194.2033719922142 | Will Destiny report Mr. Girl’s treatment of Shaelin to authorities? | 1686099274051 | Eqv5RO1mXUQpilU5J2DnF9itkHE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.664864422718133 | True | play | NO | public | 1672812232422 | anne | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I can't find the clip (please comment if you have it) but Destiny said something about being worried he would begin to feel obligated to report Mr. Girl's treatment of Shaelin to the police if he continued learning about the situation. It was durin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686099274051 | 490 | anne | 1684683345273 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672813190016}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1684683345151 | 0.14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5056598276192651 | kK5TNEcBDLWYUxYzpzRR | {"NO": 315.00000000000006, "YES": 267.2491855296571} | 0.686 | what-will-manifolds-gini-index-be-o | 25 | What will Manifold's Gini index be on Feb 1? | 1675324740000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1882365266933002 | True | play | MKT | public | 1672813209855 | Scott Lawrence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll measure the index at midnight on Feb 1st, mountain time (that is, as soon as the day starts). All accounts will be included.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675636498719 | 290 | ScottLawrence | 1675636494969 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672813210258}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672849548596 | 1675636566868 | 0.686 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8158951553565169 | q6oJgI8CpoL5NwcYVgnu | {"NO": 927.9754133593867, "YES": 76.5279883008371} | 1 | will-manifolders-win-this-game-of-h | 800.8004200641105 | Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [1] | 1672958185484 | oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.665363258570356 | True | play | YES | public | 1672813754500 | muffins | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hi there! After seeing a lot of game-style markets, I decided to make my own! This one is based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672958185484 | 170 | muffins | 1672958166391 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672813755488}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672944784864}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1672951480914 | 1672958164418 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.637680284138979 | QsuKxcagjcCiafCAjDbH | {"NO": 5853.871748177763, "YES": 447.7321379923888} | 1 | will-manifold-have-a-convenient-way | 26251.71274527217 | Will Manifold have a convenient way to create a bunch of markets about “basically the same topic” by the end of 2023? | 1696943127017 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5829530190735066 | True | basic | YES | public | 1672814048548 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently it's kinda a pain to create a bunch of markets that are very similar on Manifold Markets (c.f. this bunch of markets ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-the-118th-congress-pass-more-r", "type": "text", "mar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696943127017 | 1250 | JoshuaB | 1696943112340 | 0 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1672814048852}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1696936942376 | 1696943111568 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9710251473403017 | eU4KZzD6LdLRpLdLgmfB | {"NO": 1650.915340116178, "YES": 654.3973629589658} | 1 | will-the-sun-rise-tomorrow-dbb96cdd639b | 5327.1900328998445 | Will the sun rise tomorrow? | 1672862400000 | n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.083417652084494 | True | play | YES | public | 1672814135365 | ZZZ ZZZ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will personally check whether it has risen tomorrow and resolve the market accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672865001248 | 730 | ZZZZZZ | 1672862282459 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1672814135694}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1672862282331 | 1672856627139 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28695440332326727 | Q2bEdO9eYUpw0kbrNeQY | {"NO": 34.13480245170889, "YES": 2519.557526215503} | 0 | will-manifolders-win-this-game-of-h-51fafee736d1 | 4381.381168892246 | Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [2] | 1672866082612 | oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.823733041147799 | True | play | NO | public | 1672814186830 | muffins | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hi there! After seeing a lot of game-style markets, I decided to make my own! This one is based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672866082612 | 190 | muffins | 1672864064107 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672814187728}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672864063919 | 1672860938172 | 0.01 |
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