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will-no-nontest-nuclear-weapons-be
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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
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cpmm-1
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play
YES
public
1672853999820
Jannik
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play
4c99d9ca90ae
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1672854168836
Alex...
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what-will-the-price-of-oil-be-for-d
165.001484009184
What will the price of oil be for December 2023?
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cpmm-1
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1.0931581248059374
True
play
MKT
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1672854205084
Jannik
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "global price of WTI crude oil", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"...
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9.602128292067489
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1672854777327
Carson Gale
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will-some-us-doctors-be-negatively
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Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
1767254340000
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cpmm-1
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8.23774380389093
False
basic
public
1672854804907
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. doctors have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...
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will-some-us-nurses-be-negatively-a
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Will some U.S. nurses be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
1767254340000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
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9.84658696261967
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basic
public
1672854841046
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. nurses have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...
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1000
CarsonGale
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https://firebasestorage.…17d-0714c3254002
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[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672854841612}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "createdTime": 1673584907252}...
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how-many-times-will-elon-tweet-toda
137.77892152543382
How many times will Elon tweet today?
1672905540000
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cpmm-1
0
2.980608431522664
True
play
MKT
public
1672854919571
Jonathan Ray
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1672894115510
1672907930470
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will-some-us-artists-be-negatively
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Will some U.S. artists be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
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4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
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basic
public
1672854925199
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. artists have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...
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1000
CarsonGale
1713988844997
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https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
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984.6676268160038
Will some U.S. video game designers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
1767254340000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0.040882333453064267
9.819909534106063
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basic
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1672854961989
Carson Gale
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CarsonGale
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will-some-us-musicians-be-negativel
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Will some U.S. musicians be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
1767254340000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0.07811465202482168
9.614836895846977
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basic
public
1672855126981
Carson Gale
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will-some-us-actors-be-negatively-a
3303.0091933796257
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1767254340000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
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9.69615289227918
False
basic
public
1672855152274
Carson Gale
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cpmm-1
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1.0426763237761334
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play
CANCEL
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1672855435290
Wobbles
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NO
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1672855761217
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1704377283043
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
True
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ytUixGcOr2CgI9RGgQBJ
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this-market-resolves-to-the-largest
1352.8850403052154
This market resolves to the largest single shareholder's side.
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cpmm-1
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True
play
YES
public
1672858908993
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will-manifolders-win-this-game-of-h-c37b055b080a
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Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [3]
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1672859129555
muffins
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Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Friday Jan 6?
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1672859221218
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Jan 6 (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"t...
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Will ArtoriaQT get a Bofa before 800kc?
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will-russia-close-its-borders-for-a
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Will Russia close its borders for all citizens at any point in 2023?
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1672861893031
Andrew G
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kevin McCarthy obtained 201 votes on the 5th ballot for Speaker of the House. Resolves YES if Kevin McCarthy obtains 200 or less votes on the 6th ballot.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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will-mccarthy-receive-fewer-votes-o
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cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
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NO
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1672862658142
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on that ballot McCarthy receives strictly fewer than 201 votes, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1672862704470
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on that ballot McCarthy receives strictly more than 201 votes, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1672863768287
Linus Linus
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LinusLinus
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will-ironic-kurs-get-an-avernic-bef
133.58086284514354
will ironic kurs get an avernic before FlTZ?
1673926063412
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cpmm-1
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4.059767975977701
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NO
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1672863848670
Thel Akai
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-04 6:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1673926063412
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What will be the most popular RTS game in all of 2023?
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cpmm-multi-1
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1672864220509
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will-valerii-zaluzhnyi-still-be-the
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Will Valerii Zaluzhnyi still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2024?
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5.279889635354724
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1672864552353
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine", "class": null, "target...
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1704153572360
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itsTomekK
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1704148576159
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will-oleksii-reznikov-still-be-the
9122.934702762655
Will Oleksii Reznikov still be the Minister of Defence of Ukraine on January 1, 2024?
1693902702401
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
4.9361001157473865
True
play
NO
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1672864655179
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Reznikov", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Reznikov", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
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1693902702401
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itsTomekK
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
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1693902150830
1693902695210
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0.483410951384924
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will-ironic-kurs-get-a-bowfa-before
784.0303189308524
Will ironic kurs get a bowfa before Iron ertebak?
1675209540000
MDZhz3IXuEQxkHMNwMR6jhO5Fbe2
cpmm-1
0
3.6391665846306607
True
play
YES
public
1672864685718
doge
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-31 5:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1695600341406
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doge
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https://firebasestorage.…055-c0367de57c67
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1674884149883
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will-the-speaker-of-the-house-be-ch
9018.515203396692
Will the speaker of the house be chosen by the end of the January 2023?
1673566923802
KqkCAWmAuQg3Zbi4x7TpnSZz7JP2
cpmm-1
0
1.97616494822651
True
play
YES
public
1672865541397
Deeve
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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1673566923802
510
Deeve
1673549575780
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https://firebasestorage.…db4-edfee3e0346b
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1673310978574
1673549568720
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0.501526054687619
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will-i-receive-a-working-manalink-v
381.0123426340383
Will I receive a working manalink via Discord DM with at least one mana in the next 20 minutes?
1672867027490
n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2
cpmm-1
0
6.022443514298158
True
play
YES
public
1672866129793
ZZZ ZZZ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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1672867027490
90
ZZZZZZ
1672866817718
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https://firebasestorage.…280-d14d0d5ca2f9
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https://firebasestorage.…1d0-8026f84b7a91
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1672866817534
0.98
l3ibdt66xfVxBLDJJ2fl
most-likely-to-be-successful-mr-bea
40
Most Likely to Be Successful Mr. Beast Style Video, Based Purely Upon Title?
1680325140000
bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.939478067851447
True
play
CANCEL
public
1672866134467
Patrick Delaney
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve to most popular option.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 5, 10:06am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Most Likely to Be Successful Mr. Beast Style Video About Manifold?", "type": "text", "marks":...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680356846645
300
PatrickDelaney
1683311054082
0
https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a
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3
0
DISABLED
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https://firebasestorage.…147-6e55b79e9aa5
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[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1672866134739}]
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1674615313046
1683311052111
True
O2bzmitnoodPrKUvGGlz
what-application-of-ai-will-have-th
1538.286928746668
What application of AI will have the largest everyday-lifestyle impact in 2024 USA?
1735729260000
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1672866600891
Jacob Pfau
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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JacobPfau
1718893551671
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28
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ANYONE
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0.10957959611194108
1718893548352
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0.060606060606060594
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{"NO": 260, "YES": 136.12041031444159}
0.10971082775057432
how-many-total-rounds-of-voting-for
10
How many total rounds of voting for Speaker of the House will be held?
1672870430978
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
5.955807245752331
True
play
CANCEL
public
1672867067339
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is to determine how many rounds of voting will be held until a Speaker of the House is elected.", "type": "text"}]}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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1672870430978
250
BRTD
1672868244599
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
1
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https://firebasestorage.…5da-162a8565ea34
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1672867085909
1672868242259
0.6989967390079325
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1
will-someone-other-than-jeffries-mc
38349.972922049725
Will someone other than Jeffries, McCarthy, Biggs, Jordan, Banks, Donalds, Zeldin, or Scalise get ≥1 votes for Speaker of the House?
1672944177319
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
cpmm-1
0
4.030945882945341
True
play
YES
public
1672868165298
Andrew G
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1672944177319
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AndrewG
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1672944168683
1672942966788
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0.6786016873038183
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will-detroit-have-a-higher-populati
786.0026769995582
Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?
1893455940000
UJSbvX4oBRVfS1f5plXJ5Uc1LeZ2
cpmm-1
0.17765312191409313
9.634635546510953
False
basic
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1672868524390
Radicalia
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to the US census in each year. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Radicalia
1715933936067
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https://firebasestorage.…ba5-e00750294173
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1715933932788
1715933933390
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will-forsen-achieve-a-sub-30min-run
19640.60058558792
Will Forsen achieve a sub 30min run this month?
1675206000000
WOnVZ3AMkzYBtTD6h9UCzUq1vJs1
cpmm-1
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0.8139714229712878
True
play
NO
public
1672869602638
PieFreak
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BINARY
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1675210176007
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PieFreak
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https://firebasestorage.…08e-790c3a23fd6d
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0
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1675184266384
1674852513355
0.08
r47dWdX7dnQ7I1wupa6t
when-will-destiny-finish-factorio-s
42810.19294834351
When will Destiny finish Factorio: Space Exploration
1676585323640
xGTLncgrkIQNBv2Y9Lcffe6WULx2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.620590207813646
True
basic
c3ee0208394e
public
1672870681441
Doug Dimmadome
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1676585323640
3339.9999999999986
DougDimmadome
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[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "xGTLncgrkIQNBv2Y9Lcffe6WULx2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1672871397025}, {"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "xGTLncgrkIQNBv2Y9Lcffe6WULx2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672870681978}]
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1676576496827
1676663011530
{"c3ee0208394e": 100}
True
0.5829860735420619
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{"NO": 567.3720899862379, "YES": 64.97200530450571}
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will-elon-musk-tweet-about-the-sele
580.7433415179192
Will Elon Musk tweet about the selection of the speaker of the house in the next 7 days
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cpmm-1
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2.512953945443495
True
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YES
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1672870883614
Genzy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any tweet naming any house member or referencing the selection process will qualify", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "as there is the potential for considerable interpretation to this decision, ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1672915952986
180
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1710207060640
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will-the-billsbengals-game-be-compl
206.13666992551356
Will the Bills-Bengals game be completed?
1672971527639
HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2
cpmm-1
0
4.265607455978575
True
play
NO
public
1672871096513
Mvem
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the Bills-Bengals game that was suspended Monday night is not completed regardless of how the playoff picture is formed.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1672971527639
90
Mvem
1672971525129
0
https://firebasestorage.…d7c-9f71f6bf4d66
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0
3
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1672971422758
1672971522991
0.18
0.8622858266690161
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{"NO": 3891.446560716569, "YES": 80.6096858138169}
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will-destiny-take-longer-than-30-mi
4718.511459922101
Will Destiny Take Longer than 30 minutes to present the Destiny Awards?
1672874417786
JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2
cpmm-1
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5.439907082661525
True
play
YES
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1672871300551
PryingMind
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "( Starts the second he starts presenting ) 4:34 50 sec ends at 5:04 50 sec", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1672874417786
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PryingMind
1672874328726
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1672874328525
1672872846118
0.93
0.4176342437362388
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1
will-destiny-hit-a-900-including-90-9bc4f5a9df10
2527.3152220528696
Will Destiny Hit A 900+ ( including 900 ) First Try
1673236232751
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cpmm-1
0
0.673266585577486
True
play
YES
public
1672871357942
PryingMind
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
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1673236232751
570
PryingMind
1673236201023
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How many of these false/misleading statements in SMTM’s posts will they fix (or will be shown in the comments not to be false or misleading) before June 2023?
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Natália 🔍
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Gene Fama
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Gene Fama
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Will 12+ unicorns / public companies go bankrupt in 2023?
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Carson Gale
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will-there-be-more-insiderled-fundi
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Will there be more insider-led funding rounds in 2023?
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Carson Gale
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will-h1-2023-be-a-relatively-slow-y
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Will H1 2023 be a relatively slow year for investment?
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cpmm-1
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Carson Gale
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will-there-be-a-renewed-pace-of-vc
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Will there be a renewed pace of VC investment by end of 2023?
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1672879639215
Carson Gale
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will-valuation-corrections-in-2023
28.000555313859067
Will "valuation corrections" in 2023 be less extreme than "some expect" due to cash preservation strategies?
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cpmm-1
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1.6530395889771479
True
play
CANCEL
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1672879755309
Carson Gale
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Will 75%+ of the 1,000 unicorns at the beginning of 2022 be estimated to be worth less than $1B?
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cpmm-1
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1672879870497
Carson Gale
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will-a-private-climatetech-startup
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Will a private Climate-tech startup be valued at $12B+ in 2023?
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cpmm-1
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0.40748120241840213
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play
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1672879988766
Carson Gale
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in-2023-will-former-users-return-to
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In 2023, will former users return to Twitter AND will changes at Twitter be a surprise?
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cpmm-1
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1.069413201989895
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1672880130561
Carson Gale
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in-2023-will-twitter-sell-equity-to
7292.065761024043
Part 1: In 2023, will Twitter sell equity to cover the cost of interest payments?
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cpmm-1
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1672880463164
Carson Gale
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In 2023, will voice be more pervasive in SaaS across industries?
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In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface?
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Part 1: In 2023, will we be subjected to "lies and bullshit" due to usage of A.I. by bad actors?
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Part 2: In 2023, will typical use cases that people envision for A.I. fail to come to pass?
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part-3-in-2023-college-philosophy-m
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Part 3: In 2023, college philosophy majors become employable?
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0.6514871781986569
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1672881053339
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In 2023, will there be a "trough of disillusionment" regarding LLMs?
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