Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.48569111243250007
obsIinrNcvAPrUJOH7qb
{"NO": 1028.3673243335288, "YES": 933.0615644513985}
0.5099999999999999
will-electric-vehicles-account-for
31083.152173297345
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
1893473940000
ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1
cpmm-1
0
9.345203270631186
False
basic
public
1660658625710
Treldman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book. Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electri...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.014952193402767655}
0
{"creatorFee": 108.70699036394713, "platformFee": 4.799728350959647, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Treldman
1718620031478
0
https://firebasestorage.…ac2-0096be27c2e9
2
53
0
9
[{"name": "Electrification", "slug": "electrification", "groupId": "90f1262e-2950-4d09-82d8-9618b922f69e", "createdTime": 1704632809743}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1704632821313}]
["electrification", "automotive"]
0.5
1718620028369
1706872494823
False
72zONPc5A58edrGVZjDH
what-informationstrategy-will-be-us
115.8786765033758
What information/strategy will be useful to me in the Salem tournament?
1672549140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.831834302849796
True
play
MKT
public
1660660057262
Bionic
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm currently participating in the Salem tournament (check out the rules here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cspicenter.com/p/introducing-the-salemcspi-forecasting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673414544342
320
BionicD0LPH1N
1663662200901
0
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
5
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "36cf2e43ee07", "prob": 0.23537165183825265, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.670659757852414, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 50.907705289359335, "textFts": "", "contractId": "72zONPc5A58edrGVZjDH", "createdTime": 1660660057471, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
3
6
[{"name": "Salem/CSPI forecasting tournament", "slug": "salemcpsi-forecasting-tournament", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "c1f5wNm3J11ieMd7sRLq", "createdTime": 1660671437953}]
["salemcpsi-forecasting-tournament"]
1663662200738
1660685015852
{"46d71937d7d5": 20, "78f8aa033d95": 70, "b75cf69f521c": 10}
True
ApOszyq031wYx1Y5MRSk
why-was-a-link-to-erik-hoels-critic
73
Why was a link to Erik Hoel's critical piece deleted from the EA forum?
1660674136840
fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.868354331507969
True
play
e85f370b398a
public
1660665348374
Lorenzo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/julianrdcosta/status/1559544857932300288", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/julianrdcosta/status/1559544857932300288", "class": "no-underline !te...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 4, "platformFee": 1, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660674136840
240
Lorenzo
1660665483278
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhzcpHjwZ67O8HADuUYEMWdxEt94d8LT4MtPpRpc6o=s96-c
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "b08b31e8e7a8", "prob": 0.33412409368839585, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.80365510768035, "userId": "fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 113.20400426409618, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ApOszyq031wYx1Y5MRSk", "createdTime": 1660665348849, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1660665348768}]
["effective-altruism"]
1660665482000
{"e85f370b398a": 100}
True
0.16356582270903539
rT3uVappvcwpkZbp8VFi
{"NO": 137.1397622381304, "YES": 1331.8751318183404}
0
will-an-fbi-agent-be-killed-in-2022
4435.980488663197
Will an FBI agent be killed in 2022 in a politically motivated attack by a Trump supporter?
1672523940000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
3.4347423116450635
True
play
NO
public
1660666609793
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 17.938572718422225, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672538328444
240
Keepcalmandchill
1672116308447
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
42
0
1
33
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1660724840588}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1660666610122}, {"name": "Terr...
["us-politics", "magaland", "terrorism"]
0.5
1672116308320
0.02
0.5
j25yxhNkVAMuSkdC8V0L
{"NO": 107.05686499522193, "YES": 93.40830221813717}
0.52
how-far-will-this-market-rise-at-1u
26.616053052469866
How far will this market rise at ≤1%/user/day?
1660808205370
MxdyEeVgrFMTDDsPbXwAe9W1CLs2
cpmm-1
0
1.3818580945927414
True
play
MKT
public
1660667693083
Gurkenglas
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market starts at x%=50%. Every time a user trades for the first time in 24 hours on this market, x increases by 1. If the displayed probability on this market remains above x% for 24 continuous hours or close time is reached, this resolves to ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.2687615831553196, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660808205370
100
Gurkenglas
1660808319826
0
https://firebasestorage.…edb-5c265f567f45
3
0
0.5
1660759300234
1660808318265
0.52
0.3846153846153849
hDWwZppPDiMkVAmE0nU5
{"NO": 200.55128511465824, "YES": 32.84273236060241}
1
taco-tuesday-816-how-many-people-wi
120
Taco Tuesday 8/16: How many people will come?
1660706139361
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
3.3226585114141343
True
play
MKT
public
1660671255094
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join me for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, eating at 7pm. Drinks, desserts, and especially new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Address: 525 Guerrero S...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.201586288523423, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660706139361
100
Austin
1660716533231
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
2
0
[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1660671255501}]
["sf-events"]
0.3846153846153847
1660706092695
1660716530808
1
0.5
xL5DKNis8WSda4APu98W
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-you-eat-the-bugs-andor-live-in
0
Will you eat the bugs and/or live in the pod?
1660672848123
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1660671668872
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mean of all responses (e.g. yes bugs, no pod)", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1660672848123
100
Gigacasting
1660671668872
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.8198755767878781
gEiOFclDz6miZ0ByVWwq
{"NO": 4010.994275494052, "YES": 516.2568780356881}
1
brazil-election-will-brazil-have-a
13560.180955658887
[Brazil Election] Will Brazil have a peaceful transition of power?
1672559940000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
1.0130199289108237
True
play
YES
public
1660672428206
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conditional on Brazil's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lula ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "defeating ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Bolsonaro", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", will the transition ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 4.442311894796772, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672607029986
780
SneakySly
1673306357564
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
82
0
1
68
[{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1667210556877}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660674205700}]
["global-macro", "brazil-3292d24d179f"]
0.5
1672558148210
1673306349968
0.97
0.5444006129438698
q5irp3jdY5rdwrHoYIZE
{"NO": 761.9789104898117, "YES": 388.01103532191667}
0
will-william-macaskills-what-we-owe
1588.2479894469336
Will William MacAskill's What We Owe the Future make the New York Times's 100 Notable Books of 2022 list?
1667257200000
DMDx71NrJPSBsUJrRcrGPVFUp0H2
cpmm-1
0
0.7298118691227288
True
play
NO
public
1660673743764
Erich
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "William MacAskill's book on longtermism is out today. Will it catch the Gray Lady's fancy?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "=> ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 31.176792332695207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669168913112
560
erwald
1669168891619
0
https://firebasestorage.…26c-4766ae3e86d1
47
0
5
43
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "DMDx71NrJPSBsUJrRcrGPVFUp0H2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1660673744132}]
["effective-altruism"]
0.5
1667246454383
1669168888887
0.701186990555525
0.6095334743360729
DeVGsZM3Me2nN8FPZoQZ
{"NO": 271.4498565436164, "YES": 157.9821902004489}
1
will-i-be-accepted-to-reed-college
370.9601489290578
Will I be accepted to Reed College?
1671492204962
9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2
cpmm-1
0
1.7705062809189436
True
play
YES
public
1660673894182
arae
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 16, 11:18am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will I be accepted to Reed College", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will I be accepted to Reed College?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.7062294214730747, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671492204962
200
a
1671492443259
0
https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650
16
0
16
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1660673894550}, {"name": "arae's College Applications", "slug": "araes-college-applications", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "ZdpeoTRZA7KdssfAVvFI", "cr...
["personal-goals", "araes-college-applications"]
0.5
1671265127502
1671492440114
0.73
0.8725343693551384
CFAQ2YY9LjpAEIddtA4V
{"NO": 6715.869882712855, "YES": 371.86994828179377}
1
will-marco-rubio-be-reelected-to-th
9262.112710807425
Will Marco Rubio be reelected to the Senate in Florida?
1668004288893
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.885358673064716
True
play
YES
public
1660673944024
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Rubio is reelected. Resolves NO if he loses to challenger Val Demings. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 26.902926260855978, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668004288893
827.80323201996
BTE
1668001953508
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
45
0
37
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1660676480239}, {"name": "US Midterm Elections", "slug": "us-midterm-elections", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "phdax3hPOitlyRc4oWM4", "createdTi...
["us-midterm-elections", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1668001953326
1667999607252
0.9919758238491522
0.10816982637381722
phAgzglCuHStNgTiyaHA
{"NO": 253.31883982578154, "YES": 5484.7208286127025}
0
will-david-petraeus-run-for-preside
6591.689248931944
Will David Petraeus run for president in 2024?
1711252740000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
2.9259945545600887
True
play
NO
public
1660677742457
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if David Petraeus announces and files paperwork that he is running for president in 2024 election. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.005570713713139073}
0
{"creatorFee": 16.25917232694932, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1712553303177
597.6329355459034
BTE
1711252740000
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
0
28
0
4
8
[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}]
["2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.5
1711246088195
1660680459821
0.01
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
0.1387020976727432
pyVmgqyMej7K1kvDuQja
{"NO": 195.50795829044216, "YES": 1339.374498629575}
0
will-merrick-garland-resign-as-atto
2185.027722917451
Will Merrick Garland resign as Attorney General before the end of 2023?
1704085140000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
9.757637264123793e-16
2.3840603750407596
True
play
NO
public
1660682345707
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Merrick Garland resigns by end of 2023. Resolves NO if he still AG at the end of 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 24.002684890467414, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704085625019
534.4574977281022
BTE
1704085625444
0.2
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
28
0
1
16
[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1660682346185}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTim...
["law-order", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.11055127772200848
0.5
1699346308126
1660715636251
0.02
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
0.5463333149542985
5ij8DPg483nOnuBa5C5A
{"NO": 1010.3163474902428, "YES": 990.6401668787302}
0.5512033507938774
will-vaxarts-oral-covid-vaccine-can
79.9462169323117
Will Vaxart’s oral COVID vaccine candidate show at least 75% efficacy in a human challenge trial?
1735714740000
xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
0.007796168655607248
9.655010556390973
False
basic
public
1660685432182
Gavriel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: Vaxart is planning to run a human challenge trial using the Omicron strain of COVID to test its oral vaccine candidate. See: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://investors.vaxart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxart-announces-...
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.9669165791436067, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
GavrielK
1688299455586
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476
10
0
9
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1660685432530}]
["science-default"]
0.09369044054422503
0.5
1688299455450
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Youngkin announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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[Ask Austin Anything] What questions will I find most challenging to answer?
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697.3431407924867
Will Coin Center sue the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) over Tornado Cash sanctions?
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AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
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play
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1660771515222
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "'Last Monday, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) made a designation adding Tornado Cash to the Specially Designated Nationals And Blocked Persons (SDN) List that it administers. Hours after the designation, we posted ...
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will-coinbase-censor-ethereum-20-tr
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cpmm-1
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1660772203303
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 17, 5:07pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Coinbase censor Ethereum 2.0 transactions due to OFAC sanctions?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Coinbase censor Ethereum 2.0 transactions...
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will-ethereum-undergo-a-hard-fork-b
3619.7140242131563
Will Ethereum undergo a hard fork before 2024 due to U.S. Treasury sanctions?
1704092340000
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cpmm-1
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2.8407191270740637
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NO
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1660772683918
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given Ethereum's plan to update its consensus mechanism from Proof of Work (POW) to Proof of Stake (POS) - companies in the U.S. with large validator stakes are in a tough position. After the transition (the Merge), do they use their stake to censo...
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cpmm-1
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1660773112883
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Babylon Health announces a deal to be acquired by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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will-ethereum-undergo-a-soft-fork-t
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1660773896477
Ian Philips
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Mel
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will this work? (Resolves NO)
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free money 2.0 (resolves NO)
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