CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Dodger Paschall

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Tiger Woods Will Win Another PGA Tournament

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Dodger Paschall

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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Brian T. Edwards

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Will Vladimir Putin (aka Huylo) die before January 1st 2023?

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Stanislav Podyachev

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Treldman

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Stochastic Cockatoo

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will-there-be-a-second-future-forum

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Will there be a second Future Forum in 2023?

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1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

2.1649514637324803

True

play

NO

public

1660058521483

Stochastic Cockatoo

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StochasticParrot

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will-my-spouse-retire-by-june-1-202

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Will my spouse retire by June 1, 2023?

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1.3493278241619873

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tigrennatenn

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tigrennatenn

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will-trump-be-barred-from-running-f

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Will Trump be barred from running for President?

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1686612915153

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will-monkeypox-spread-among-straigh

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Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent?

1688165940000

fryTbWFGQoesXma889Bkjk8l52z2

cpmm-1

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0.4744918581965001

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NO

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1660072573255

Robert Wiblin

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will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land

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Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?

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Treldman

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is-there-life-on-any-body-in-the-so

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Is there life on any body in the solar system other than Earth?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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when-will-guive-first-appear-on-an

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When will Guive first appear on an 80,000 Hours podcast?

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Trevor

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trevor

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Who will win Melee Singles at Super Smash Con 2022?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.620049545602957

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Alexander Bateman

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How many people will bet on this Questions?

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9.595749197335332

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Samuel Tillian

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Will Hinge support respond positively to my request for an adblocking whitelist?

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3.017683475012672

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journcy

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journcy

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ussgordoncaptain

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ussgordoncaptain

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Will masks be required in class at UIUC?

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Benjamin Cosman

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4.047344968033179

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Brian T. Edwards

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[TUTBAD] Will Alfric undo the day starting in Chapter 126?

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horse

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will-ukraine-successfully-attack-th

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Will Ukraine successfully attack the Kerch Strait Bridge during 2022?

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If Elon Musk is allowed out of his acquisition of Twitter will he start a competing social media site within one year of the deal formally expiring?

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cpmm-1

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Mask Mandate in Any State by End of Winter?

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cpmm-1

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Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023?

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conditional-on-donald-trump-being-i

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Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?

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cpmm-1

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Matt P

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Who will make the most profit on the Manifold Community stream?

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who-is-the-confidential-informant-t

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cpmm-multi-1

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Who runs Bentham's Corpse, EA Poet, on Twitter (@ea_bentham)?

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Emma Richter

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will-openai-or-deepmind-make-a-publ

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Will OpenAI or DeepMind make a public announcement that they intend to delay some work that would improve AI capabilities due to safety/alignment concerns?

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who-will-be-the-last-user-to-bet-in

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Who will be the last user to bet in this market?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.769033469340642

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Isaac King

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Test market, will resolve N/A

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cpmm-1

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True

play

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Isaac King

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PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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IsaacKing

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test-market-will-resolve-na-c5075788a150

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Test market, will resolve N/A

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cpmm-1

0

4.5999740846789905

True

play

CANCEL

public

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Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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IsaacKing

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what-will-be-the-volume-of-the-larg

16

What will be the volume of the largest market to be resolved incorrectly by the end of 2022?

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cpmm-1

0

9.912843399132099

True

play

CANCEL

public

1660243291322

Isaac King

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PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1660371470372

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IsaacKing

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what-should-i-know-about-manifold-b

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What should I know about Manifold before betting?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.7366520702703925

True

play

MKT

public

1660266621109

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top 3 most helpful answer win.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1662894286342

1140

FranklinBaldo

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will-it-be-reported-from-media-sour

62

Will it be reported from media sources that the documents seized from Mar-A-Lago included receipts for food?

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cpmm-1

0

2.869864769594616

True

play

NO

public

1660274393556

littlebubulle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just for fun. This market resolves to YES if a media source reports that the documents retrieved by the FBI at Mar-a-lago contain receipts for food (lunch, delivery, catering, etc.). The media source does not need to be credible but has to be an ac...

BINARY

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1662868322528

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littlebubulle

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0

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where-will-trump-be-indicted

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Where will Trump be indicted?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.652645783249636

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play

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to an equal weighted mix of all locations if not indicted by the next Inauguration", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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will-the-documents-found-by-the-fbi

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Will the documents found by the FBI include Top Secret information about nuclear weapons?

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cpmm-1

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3.5188639902410745

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play

YES

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1660310910947

Oliver S

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BINARY

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OliverS

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will-frances-x-suarez-run-for-the-g

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Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024?

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cpmm-1

0

4.147685759877004

True

play

YES

public

1660317831806

Brian T. Edwards

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1686878914894

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cpmm-1

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Juan Gil

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Martin Randall

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Who will win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district?

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Evelyn

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Who will win the Democratic primary for New York's 12th congressional district?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Evelyn

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Did the search of Mar-a-Lago uncover a secret grant of clemency for Roger Stone that was not previously reported?

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1660327078996

Brian T. Edwards

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Will Manifold implement limit expiration dates before market close?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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Will Donald Trump be eligible to run for president in 2024?

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will-donald-trump-be-charged-with-v

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Will Donald Trump be charged with violating the Espionage Act?

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0.5842278344155813

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Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Donald Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act by the end of 2023? Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-i-regret-attending-a-meetup-to

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Will I regret attending a meetup tomorrow?

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^,^ Épi

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Will I have hypomania (YES) or a down episode (NO) after going to a meetup tomorrow?

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If IRA passes, by what factor will IRS audit rates on incomes <$400k increase?

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Scott Lawrence

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